Looking for Delta: Tectonic Shifts in Global Agribusiness · 2016-11-09 · in Global Agribusiness David Nelson, Global Strategist ... Grain and Feed Company Implications: 34. 3 Market

February 4, 2011 Rabobank International

Looking for Delta: Tectonic Shifts in Global AgribusinessDavid Nelson, Global Strategist

NGFA Annual Convention 2011

2Rabobank InternationalMarket Developments & Outlook

Contents

I Key Macro Issues 4

II Key Protein Industry Issues 27

III Grain and Feed Company Implications 34


Key Macro Issues

Section I


The basics have remained the same...

Introduction

Agricultural land (1,000 ha)Global population (in millions)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total population Rural population

Urban population

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

4,200

4,300

4,400

4,500

4,600

4,700

4,800

4,900

5,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007Agricultural land area

Agricultural land area per capita

Source: FAO Stat Source: FAO Stat, Rabobank

Demand supply imbalance


Country 2010 GDP growth rate Population

Brazil 7.5% 193,734,000

China 10.3% 1,331,460,000

India 8.2% 1,155,348,000

Indonesia 6.9% 229,965,000

The connection to wealth creation...

... But GDP growth is accelerating demand growth

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, IBGE, National Bureau of Statistics China, India Central Statistical Organization

Introduction

Higher GDP growth Higher protein consumption Higher grain demand


While most yield improvements are decelerating

Source: USDASource: USDA

Source: USDA Source: USDA

World corn yield % change, 5 yr moving avg World wheat yield % change, 5 yr moving avg

World soybean yield % change, 5 yr moving avg World rice yield % change, 5 yr moving avg

Introduction

-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%5%

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009


What is the market telling us?

Brazil will grow more, but...

China will have to pay more.

If corn cost $3.50-$4.00, then soy cost $8.40–$9.60.

Price gravitates to marginal cost of production

Source: Conab, Bloomberg

Introduction

Brazil soybean and corn production

23.5 24.1

7.7 7.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2009/2010 2010/2011

Soybean Corn

31.2 31.5

Soybeans = 41.80 BRL/60kgCorn = 8.30 BRL/60kg

October Mato Grosso prices:

Soybeans = 40.09 BRL/60kgCorn = 12.40 BRL/60kg


Brazil’s farmers have not benefitted as much from rising soy prices as in the US due to appreciating Real

Prices need to rise to stimulate incremental production

Brazil: higher but not so volatile

Source: Bloomberg

Other key issues

Percent change in Brazil and US soybeans since 2005

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%1/

7/20

05

5/7/

2005

9/7/

2005

1/7/

2006

5/7/

2006

9/7/

2006

1/7/

2007

5/7/

2007

9/7/

2007

1/7/

2008

5/7/

2008

9/7/

2008

1/7/

2009

5/7/

2009

9/7/

2009

1/7/

2010

5/7/

2010

9/7/

2010

1/7/

2011

Brazil Soybeans in BRL US Soybeans in USD

+149%

+47%


We believe the break-even cost of U.S. corn production is $4.00 - $4.50, and for soybeans near $10.00

What is break even cost for corn and soy production?

Source: USDASource: USDA

Source: USDA Source: Bloomberg

US farm land price per acre US Fertilizer prices

US corn seed prices WTI crude oil

Other key issues

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$/

MT

Urea DAP

Anhydrous ammonia Potassium cholide500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

USD

/acr

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$

per

plan

ted

acre

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


Crop 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F change

Corn 78.3 93.5 86 86.4 88.2 92 3.8

Soybeans 75.5 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4 78 0.6

Wheat 57.3 60.5 63.2 59.2 53.6 57 3.4

Upland cotton 14.9 10.5 9.3 9 10.8 12.8 2

Minor feed grains 14.1 15.5 15.8 13.6 11.4 12.2 0.8

Rice 2.8 2.8 3 3.1 3.6 2.9 ‐0.8

Total 8 crops 243.1 247.5 253 248.7 245 254.8 9.8

Planted acres projected to rise in 2011

Source: USDA

USDA acreage projection looks aggressive


155 160 165 170

90 -1.1% 2.0% 5.0% 8.0%

91 0.0% 3.0% 6.1% 9.2%

92 1.0% 4.1% 7.2% 10.3%

93 2.1% 5.2% 8.3% 11.4%

It would take a by far record yield and nearly a 5 million acre increase in planted area for the corn stocks to use ratio to get back over 10% --which is not a terribly comfortable level.

Feed costs: No Light at the End of the Tunnel

Source: USDA, Rabobank

2008 vs. 2011

Are

a p

lan

ted

Yield


Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the primary incremental producers of the world’s grain

Black Sea region rising in importance…

Source: USDA

Black Sea Region

Black Sea share of world exports

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 (f)

Barley Exports Wheat Exports


Russian standard deviation = 0.29

MT / hectare

U.S. standard deviation = 0.17

MT / hectare

Volatile production in Russia relative to the U.S.


Black Sea Region

Yield deviation from 20-year trend

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Russia US


A return to prior highs for planted area in Russia would add 50mmt to grain production

…with much upside still remaining in grain production area planted…

Source: USDA

Black Sea Region

Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan grain production and area planted

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

E

Are

a Pl

ante

d (K

ha)

Prod

uctio

n (m

t)

Area Planted (kha) Production (kt)


…and crop yield

Source: USDA

Black Sea Region

Global wheat yields

4.7

5.5

2.0

3.02.8

3.0

China E.U. Russia U.S. India World

MT

/ he

ctar

e


Enabling environment is a big problem, and getting worse.

Russia’s wheat production is highly elastic to price…

Source: USDA, Bloomberg

Black Sea Region

Russian area harvested and lagged price of wheat

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US$

/ M

T

1000

ha.

Area Harvested Price (USD/MT)


Grain trapped due to poor infrastructure

Two areas with rapid growth in animal protein production

Key Global Animal Protein Issues

Mato Grosso(Brazil)

Tambov / Lipetsk(Russia)


The China corn conundrum

China

Why is China importing corn for the first time since 1994 if their stock levels are anywhere near as high as stated?- 60 MM MT, or for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 37.1%

Same goes for why would they have an internal price of over $8/bushel if stocks are satisfactory?

Why has China limited bidding from industrial users their Tuesday auctions?

China’s soy imports continue to expand rapidly and faster than anticipated. If meal use is rising so rapidly, how could it be much different for corn?

China’s soy imports since 1998 imply an incremental corn need of 90mmt compared to only 30mmt as reported

Answer:

China’s corn supplies appear to be desperately low


If industrial hog production grows from 55% to 60%, and modified from 11% to 21%, deficit expected to be 23 MM MT by 2015 -Assuming 10 bu. of corn per pig

Industrialization of China’s hog production industry

Source: MOA, Rabobank

China

Herd size of hog farms in China

74%

57%

42%37%

30%

21%

36%

48%51%

55%

5% 7% 10% 12% 15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2005 2007 2009 2013F

Backyard farm(1~49 heads/farm)

Commercial farm(50~3000 heads/farm)

Specialized farm(+3000 heads/farm)


Even with only 2% pork production

growth, China could be importing

25 MM MT of corn per year by 2015

due to industrialization

China’s corn balance sheet

Source: MOA, USDA, FAPRI, Rabobank estimates

China

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Actual Estimate

MT

Rabobank estimate


Late 1990s: China moved towards “just-in-time” inventory management

2005: China starts building inventory again due to rising commodity prices

China will want to rebuild diminished stocks

Source: USDA

China

China ending stocks

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1960

/196

119

61/1

962

1962

/196

319

63/1

964

1964

/196

519

65/1

966

1966

/196

719

67/1

968

1968

/196

919

69/1

970

1970

/197

119

71/1

972

1972

/197

319

73/1

974

1974

/197

519

75/1

976

1976

/197

719

77/1

978

1978

/197

919

79/1

980

1980

/198

119

81/1

982

1982

/198

319

83/1

984

1984

/198

519

85/1

986

1986

/198

719

87/1

988

1988

/198

919

89/1

990

1990

/199

119

91/1

992

1992

/199

319

93/1

994

1994

/199

519

95/1

996

1996

/199

719

97/1

998

1998

/199

919

99/2

000

2000

/200

120

01/2

002

2002

/200

320

03/2

004

2004

/200

520

05/2

006

2006

/200

720

07/2

008

2008

/200

920

09/2

010

2010

/201

1

1000

MT

Corn Rice, Milled Wheat

2

1

1

2


Decoupling

Rising corn prices in China

China

Corn price development - China and U.S.

Source: Bloomberg

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

2/24

/200

64/

24/2

006

6/24

/200

6

8/24

/200

6

10/2

4/20

06

12/2

4/20

06

2/24

/200

74/

24/2

007

6/24

/200

7

8/24

/200

7

10/2

4/20

07

12/2

4/20

07

2/24

/200

8

4/24

/200

8

6/24

/200

8

8/24

/200

8

10/2

4/20

08

12/2

4/20

08

2/24

/200

94/

24/2

009

6/24

/200

9

8/24

/200

9

10/2

4/20

09

12/2

4/20

09

2/24

/201

04/

24/2

010

6/24

/201

0

8/24

/201

0

10/2

4/20

10

12/2

4/20

10

2/24

/201

1

Dalian corn USD/bu Iowa corn USD/bu Dalian corn RMB/mt


World grain situation is not

benign if we take China out of the global stock-to-

use equation

Global stocks-to-use ratios

Source: USDA

China

World stocks-to-use ratio: All grains

World stocks-to-use ratio: Corn

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10World World - China

19.0%

14.4%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

World World - China

14.7%

9.3%


3,6403,6603,6803,7003,7203,7403,7603,7803,8003,820

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

Heilongjiang Jilin Liaoning Inner Mongolia

Temporary sourcing for corn and soybeans –volume targets vary

Permanent sourcing for paddy and wheat – no volume limits

China key crop support prices

Source: MOA, RabobankSource: MOA, Rabobank

Source: MOA, Rabobank Source: MOA, Rabobank

China corn sourcing price by location, RMB/mt China soybean sourcing price all locations, RMB/mt

China paddy sourcing price by variety, RMB/mt China wheat sourcing price by variety, RMB/mt

China

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Early Indica Paddy Middle/Late Indica Paddy

Japonica Paddy

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

White wheat Red wheat Mixed wheat


China coal trade

Source: Bloomberg

China

China monthly coal imports and exports, million metric tons

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

2/1/

2005

4/1/

2005

6/1/

2005

8/1/

2005

10/1

/200

512

/1/2

005

2/1/

2006

4/1/

2006

6/1/

2006

8/1/

2006

10/1

/200

612

/1/2

006

2/1/

2007

4/1/

2007

6/1/

2007

8/1/

2007

10/1

/200

712

/1/2

007

2/1/

2008

4/1/

2008

6/1/

2008

8/1/

2008

10/1

/200

812

/1/2

008

2/1/

2009

4/1/

2009

6/1/

2009

8/1/

2009

10/1

/200

912

/1/2

009

2/1/

2010

4/1/

2010

6/1/

2010

8/1/

2010

10/1

/201

012

/1/2

010

China coal imports China coal exports


Key Protein Issues:Demand Rationing?

Section II


Industry profitability has been declining and becoming more volatile

Source: LMIC, Bloomberg

Chicken Industry Profitability Worst Ever

U.S. broiler margin, cents/lb

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

3002

/12/

05

04/1

2/05

06/1

2/05

08/1

2/05

10/1

2/05

12/1

2/05

02/1

2/06

04/1

2/06

06/1

2/06

08/1

2/06

10/1

2/06

12/1

2/06

02/1

2/07

04/1

2/07

06/1

2/07

08/1

2/07

10/1

2/07

12/1

2/07

02/1

2/08

04/1

2/08

06/1

2/08

08/1

2/08

10/1

2/08

12/1

2/08

02/1

2/09

04/1

2/09

06/1

2/09

08/1

2/09

10/1

2/09

12/1

2/09

02/1

2/10

04/1

2/10

06/1

2/10

08/1

2/10

10/1

2/10

12/1

2/10

02/1

2/11


FMD in Korea has already led to the liquidation of about 25% or 2.5 million hogs, and a figure that looks likely to rise to 3.0 – 3.5 million head before all is done. This is in the context of Korea’s herd size of 10 million head. We expect Korea’s pork imports pork imports to rise by 30% this year to 380,000 tons.

China is experiencing sow liquidation and we believe has an FMD problem of its own. China’s sow herd is down 3% compared to year-ago levels by the latest statistics, which we believe could lead to 2011 pork imports of 1.1 – 1.4 MMT, a four-fold increase from 2010.

The fourth consecutive negative profitability in the EU pork industry and the effects of the dioxin contamination in Europe, particularly Germany, is leading to herd liquidation across the continent. We now believe that EU pork production could fall 1 – 1.5% impacting production by around 300,000 tons.

USDA’s forecast for a 1.5% or 150,000 ton increase in U.S. pork production looking optimistic. The U.S. breeding herd was down 1% in December which can be substantially offset by productivity gains but we are not hearing of any expansions and in fact are hearing of financing difficulties.

This all adds up. These factors alone suggest a swing in production expectations of about 1.2 – 1.3MMT compared to expectations last fall. World pork production is about 103MMT, and half of that is in China.

Approximately 1.2mmt swing in 2011 outlook in recent months

Key Pork Industry Issues


Pork Production (1000 mt)

2010 USDA % change Rabobank % change

China 50,000 51,500 3.0% 49,500 -1.0%

EU-27 22,250 22,120 -0.6% 21,900 -1.6%

United States 10,052 10,204 1.5% 10,200 0.0%

Brazil 3,170 3,260 2.8% 3,235 2.1%

Russia 2,270 2,310 1.8% 2,290 0.9%

Vietnam 1,870 1,900 1.6% 1,870 0.0%

Canada 1,750 1,720 -1.7% 1,750 0.0%

Japan 1,280 1,290 0.8% 1,280 0.0%

Philippines 1,255 1,260 0.4% 1,250 -0.4%

Mexico 1,161 1,184 2.0% 1,160 -0.1%

Korea, South 1,097 1,140 3.9% 700 -36.2%

World 101,507 103,392 1.9% 100,000 -1.5%

USDA 2011 production estimates for the top 3 world pork producers are overstated:

China FMD, most recent sow estimate is -3%

EU dioxin contamination causing liquidation

U.S. breeding herd -1% YOY in December, but hog prices rising faster than feed costs

2011 Outlook


Key Pork Industry Issues


Beef Production (1000 mt)

2008 2009 2010 2011

United States 12,163 11,891 11,828 11,556

Brazil 9,024 8,935 9,145 9,410

EU-27 8,090 7,900 7,870 7,850

China 6,132 5,764 5,550 5,450

India 2,650 2,750 2,850 2,920

Argentina 3,150 3,375 2,600 2,550

Australia 2,159 2,129 2,080 2,050

World 58,522 57,431 56,763 56,663

Brazilian herd may actually be in liquidation.

Declining world production

Key Beef Industry Issues


Some of these losses will have to get passed back to ranchers

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. cattle feeding margin

U.S. cattle feeding margin, USD/hd

(300)

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

1/5/

2001

4/5/

2001

7/5/

2001

10/5

/200

11/

5/20

024/

5/20

027/

5/20

0210

/5/2

002

1/5/

2003

4/5/

2003

7/5/

2003

10/5

/200

31/

5/20

044/

5/20

047/

5/20

0410

/5/2

004

1/5/

2005

4/5/

2005

7/5/

2005

10/5

/200

51/

5/20

064/

5/20

067/

5/20

0610

/5/2

006

1/5/

2007

4/5/

2007

7/5/

2007

10/5

/200

71/

5/20

084/

5/20

087/

5/20

0810

/5/2

008

1/5/

2009

4/5/

2009

7/5/

2009

10/5

/200

91/

5/20

104/

5/20

107/

5/20

1010

/5/2

010

1/5/

2011


Profitability is holding up despite higher corn prices

Source: Bloomberg

Ethanol Margins

U.S. wet ethanol margin, USD per gallon

U.S. dry ethanol margin, USD per gallon

-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.503.00

2/24

/200

6

4/24

/200

6

6/24

/200

6

8/24

/200

6

10/2

4/20

06

12/2

4/20

06

2/24

/200

7

4/24

/200

7

6/24

/200

7

8/24

/200

7

10/2

4/20

07

12/2

4/20

07

2/24

/200

8

4/24

/200

8

6/24

/200

8

8/24

/200

8

10/2

4/20

08

12/2

4/20

08

2/24

/200

9

4/24

/200

9

6/24

/200

9

8/24

/200

9

10/2

4/20

09

12/2

4/20

09

2/24

/201

0

4/24

/201

0

6/24

/201

0

8/24

/201

0

10/2

4/20

10

12/2

4/20

10

2/24

/201

1

-0.500.000.501.001.502.002.503.00

2/27

/200

6

4/27

/200

6

6/27

/200

6

8/27

/200

6

10/2

7/20

06

12/2

7/20

06

2/27

/200

7

4/27

/200

7

6/27

/200

7

8/27

/200

7

10/2

7/20

07

12/2

7/20

07

2/27

/200

8

4/27

/200

8

6/27

/200

8

8/27

/200

8

10/2

7/20

08

12/2

7/20

08

2/27

/200

9

4/27

/200

9

6/27

/200

9

8/27

/200

9

10/2

7/20

09

12/2

7/20

09

2/27

/201

0

4/27

/201

0

6/27

/201

0

8/27

/201

0

10/2

7/20

10

12/2

7/20

10

2/27

/201

1


Grain and Feed Company Implications

Section III


Power and profitability are shifting upstream in the value chain

Higher working capital needs

Scramble for origination Securing supplies (companies and countries) Network effect

Crop diversification

Shift to the East



ADM reported recurring earnings for Q211 of $1.06 compared to consensus expectations of $0.79. The primary driver of outperformance was the Merchandising and Handling operations of their Ag Service Division where profits rose from $103M in the year-ago quarter to $376M this year.

Bunge reported a profit increase in their Ag Services division from $65m to $377m.

Cargill’s recent results where earnings rose to $832M from $420M excluding Mosaic and led by origination and processing.

Our view. As grain markets become more volatile, power and profitability are shifting up the value chain and even towards production.

… as a consequence of structurally higher and more volatile prices

Value and Profitability are Shifting Upstream


Bunge Q210 results: sold soybeans in China before they originated them in Brazil

Wilmar last quarter

Dislocations create opportunity, but also risk

…but volatility puts a premium on positioning


Higher, more volatile prices

cause inherent increase in

working capital

Working capital needs are rising

Source: Bloomberg


Working capital / sales

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Bunge ADM


Selected G&O transactions during 2010

Sources: Capital IQ


Bunge’s acquisition of five sugar mills from Usina

Moema for $1.2 BN

Biofuels

Agribusiness

Bunge divested phosphate mining and fertilizer production

assets to Vale S.A. for an estimated $4.7 BN

Agrium acquired AWB Limited for $1.8 BN to

expand its retail footprint in Australia

ADM’s minority investment of $100 MM in Agricultural

Bank of China

Cargill acquired AWB’sgrain trading and commodity management business from

Agrium for $860 MM

Cargill sold CTP PNG’spalm assets to New Britain

Palm Oil for $219 MM

Noble Group acquired upstream palm oil assets from PT Henrison Inti Persada for $162 MM

Wilmar acquired Kencana Agri for $365 MM

LG International acquired the palm oil assets of PT Parna Raya for $27 MM

Wilmar acquired Natural Oleochemicals for $130 MM

Cargill acquired a 85% stake in PT Sorini Agro

Asia, a producer of starch and derivatives, for $395 MM

Cargill along with Mitsui, acquired 60% stake in Bayovar

Phosphate Mine for approximately $660 MM

Vale S.A. exercised its call option to acquire the 20% of its

stake owned by Mosaic

Noble acquired two ethanol refineries with annual capacity of 7.6 MM MT from Cerradinho

Group for $940 MM

Olam acquired the Crown Flour Mills Nigeria Limited

for $110 MM2010: Viterra acquired

21st Century Grain Processing and Dakota

Growers Pasta

Wilmar acquired CSR’ssugar business Sucrogen

Ltd for $1.5 BN

Gavilon acquired DeBruce Grains to become the

third-largest U.S. trader

Kernel Holding acquired Allseeds Group


The network multiplier effect


Lower margins from “toll-based” service…

…amplified by high throughputand large volumes…

…driving enhanced profitabilityand increased returns

Higher, more volatile prices are

causing a scramble for

origination


Crop diversification


Wilmar into sugar/CSR

ADM and Bunge into sugar ethanol, palm

Noble, Glencore into Brazil sugar


Enterprise value

2007 2011

ADM 25,899 28,878

Bunge 12,917 15,097

Noble 2,712 15,188

Olam 4,200 8,674

Wilmar 5,622 40,021

The shift to the East

Source: Bloomberg


ADM strategist to Beijing

BG strategist palm expert

Asian companies now looking to Africa


The End


Meat production growth < demandWorld GDP growth = higher prices

Source: USDA, World Bank

Key Global Animal Protein Issues

Meat production and GDP, % growth since 2006

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Beef

Pork

Broiler

World GDP

All Protein

Documents

Looking for Delta: Tectonic Shifts in Global Agribusiness · 2016-11-09 · in Global Agribusiness David Nelson, Global Strategist ... Grain and Feed Company Implications: 34. 3 Market