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HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd.

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Initiating Coverage ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd.

21-October-2020

Initiating Coverage HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd.


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Industry LTP Recommendation Time Horizon

AMC Rs.2347.55 SIP Buy for 10% CAGR 2-3 Years

Our Take:

HDFC Asset Management Company Limited (HDFC AMC) is one of the largest and most profitable mutual funds in the country with a market share of 14.5% as of Jun-20 on the basis of actively managed equity Quarterly Average AUM (QAAUM) and 13.7% on the basis of overall QAAUM. The total AUM size of the company is 3,562 bn (QAAUM- 37% Equity; 27.8% Debt and 35.2% Liquid & Others). Over the last decade, the company registered a 15% CAGR growth in total AUM while its market share in actively managed equity AUM grew from 11.9% in Mar 2010 to 14.5% as on Q1FY21. Given the massive under-penetration of financial products and inclusion in India, there is enough scope for AMCs like HDFC AMC to continue to expand profitably. The industry will continue to benefit from shift of household savings towards mutual funds from physical assets and bank deposits. Players with strong brand equity and brand recall can gain market share in tougher times, and hence consolidation of assets within top few players could continue for some time. Change of product mix strategy could bring higher margins for the company in future. Company’s expansion towards B-30 locations would open up new scope for growth. Valuations & Recommendation: On the back of rising concerns related to economic slowdown due to COVID-19, within the financial space, AMC’s business model is relatively insulated from any collateral damage which is mainly due to its low levered nature of business with superior return ratios and high dividend payout. Going forward, we have envisaged a decline of 1.3% CAGR for topline for HDFC AMC while PAT is expected to grow by 8.5% CAGR on the back of margin improvement over FY20-22E. RoE is expected to decline from 35.6% in FY20 to 29.3% in FY22E. This will be a significant lower growth rate compared to its past trend. We expect a gradual recovery in assets and earnings from FY22 onwards. Cash and investments of the company is Rs. 39712 mn as at FY20 (~8% of the market capitalization). The company is trading at 33.3x FY22E earnings – at a premium to other AMCs and many other BFSI companies.

We feel that investors can SIP buy HDFC for a 10% CAGR over next 2-3 years.

HDFC Scrip Code HDFCAMC BSE Code 541729 NSE Code HDFCAMC Bloomberg HDFCAMC CMP Oct 20, 2020 2347.55 Equity Capital (Rsmn) 1064 Face Value (Rs) 5 Equity Share O/S (mn) 212.9 Market Cap (Rs mn) 499558.64 Book Value (Rs) 188.8

Avg. 52 Wk Volumes 539340 52 Week High 3844.0 52 Week Low 1963.6

Share holding Pattern % (Sep, 2020)

Promoters 73.93

Institutions 10.53 Non Institutions 15.53

Total 100.0

Fundamental Research Analyst Nisha Sankhala [email protected]


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Financial Summary

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Recent Developments Q1FY21 highlights: The Company had reported weak result in Q1FY21. Changes in market conditions and the trend of flows into mutual funds may have an impact on its operations. Net revenue was down 18.4% YoY and 13.6% QoQ at Rs. 4115 mn. On the back of lower effective tax rate of 20.5% and healthy other income the net profit rose by 4% YoY and 21% QoQ. QAAUM stood at Rs.3562 billion as compared to Rs.3624 billion as on Jun-19, a fall of 2%. On the equity front, the QAAUM market share loss was noteworthy, dropping 160bps YoY and 70bps QoQ to 14.5%. The ratio of equity oriented AUM and non-equity oriented AUM at the end of Q1FY21 quarter stood at is 39:61 compared to the industry ratio of 38:62. Actively Managed Equity-oriented AUM declined by 18.0% YoY but grew by 14.8% QoQ, attributed to broad revival in equity markets in the month of June. SIP inflow further decreased to 9.6 bn from 11.3 bn in Mar-20 and 12.7 in Jun-19. Management indicated that as a part of diversification in equity funds, the company will launch thematic funds. Historically, AUM has been concentrated in the Top 30 (T-30) cities. Almost 88% of MAAUM (Monthly Average AUM) is from T-30 and rest comes from B-30. Looking at the opportunities, HDFC AMC has started building its presence in ‘Beyond Top 30 cities’ (B-30. B-30 locations have higher share of equity assets compared to non-equity assets. As of Jun-20 the company has 2nd largest market share in B-30 Markets. We feel that these regions are largely underpenetrated and have huge scope for growth.

Particulars (Rsmn) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY-% Q4FY20 QoQ-% FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Revenues 4115 5044 -18 4761 -14 19,152 20,033 17,514 20,542

EBITDA 3165 3957 -20 3717 -15 12,460 15,722 14,030 16,807

PAT 3024 2918 4 2498 21 9,306 12,624 12,665 14,866

EV/NOPLAT (x) 55.5 39.6 43.8 35.9

P/E (x) 51.8 39.7 39.6 33.7

RoE (%) 37.0 35.6 29.0 29.3

P/BV (x) 16.3 12.4 10.7 9.2


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FY20 was a difficult year for asset managers as equity flows remained muted, commissions increased, and performance deteriorated. And in FY21 also we feel that the scope for growth is low as COVID-19 led economy disruptions are likely to hurt inflows. For FY21E, we expect revenue/EBITDA to decline 12.6/10.8% YoY respectively. PAT is expected to remain muted. Long term Triggers A multiyear growth story Indian Mutual Fund Industry has a multiyear growth story lying ahead of them on the back of several structural benefits. Currently Indian MF Industry is highly under penetrated- AUM to GDP ratio is mere 12.5% (vs 6.7% in FY12) compared to Global average of 62% and ~46% in other emerging countries. Since past few years Indian household saving is rapidly moving from physical and traditional investments to Mutual funds. More and more retail participation has been coming into mutual fund AUM via SIPs. If we compare number of tax returnees & demat account holders with Mutual fund holders and assume all of them as potential Mutual fund investors, penetration of Mutual fund investors is just 50%. We expect the next leg of growth to come from the fast growing and aspirational middle-income group. As per AMFI-BCG vision document, the >Rs 1mn income segment accounted for ~10% of all households while the Rs 0.3mn-1mn income segment accounted for ~37% in 2018. These figures are expected to increase to 16% and 46% respectively by 2025, thereby increasing the pool of equity investors. Apart from this, penetration of mutual funds in India, which is measured by AUM/GDP ratio, is still at a very low level at 12.5% v/s global average of 62%. India with its inherited culture of high savings, provides a multi-decade visibility of consistent mobilization of savings into financial assets in a transparent process through AMC’s. The AUM of the mutual fund industry in India has grown at a CAGR of 15.5% over the past five years, with the equity AUM growing at a CAGR of 17.3%. The monthly SIP flows grew 2.8 times from April 2016, to ~ 86.41 bn in March 2020. The number of SIP transactions processed in March 2020 was 31.2 mn as compared to 10.1 mn in April 2016. Assets under management (AUMs) for the industry grew from Rs 6.1 trn as of March 2010 to Rs.22.3 trn in March 2020. Growth has been particularly strong after demonetization in FY16 due to strong inflows and investment performance. The industry has tremendous potential for growth, considering that India is a large untapped market with favorable demographics. The mutual fund industry is highly concentrated with the top 10 players accounting for 78% of the total actively-managed equity AUM and about 83% in overall AUM.


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One of the key characteristics of the asset‐management business is its high operating leverage, as a moderate increase in AUM does not significantly impact its cost structure. HDFC AMC is in a sweet spot Recent regulatory change which has revised expense ratios lower for mutual fund investors should also aid in greater retail participation. Recent trend of low interest rates is also good for mutual fund flows, as money moves from low interest rate bank deposits towards higher yielding products. Moreover, this business is highly skewed – top 10 players contribute almost ~83% of the total AUM of the country. And being one of largest players HDFC AMC is in a sweet spot. Market Leader HDFC AMC has remained amongst the Top 2 players in the previous five fiscals. It is a trusted brand with strong parentage. Company focuses on individual customers and customer centric approach. It has 14.5% market share as of Jun-20 on the basis of Quarterly Average Total AUM and equity-oriented AUM also. HDFC AMC’s proportion of equity oriented AUM to total AUM was at 39.4% as of Jun-20 which was higher than the industry average of 38%. As equity-oriented schemes generally have a higher fee structure compared to non-equity-oriented schemes, HDFC AMC’s product mix helps it achieve higher profitability. Moreover, most efficient operational abilities and rapid adoption of digitization have resulted in industry level best margins. They have also indicated that there will be a focus on cost control and reduction of overheads to manage core profitability. HDFC AMC has been the most profitable Asset Management Co. in India in terms of net profit since FY13. It has a total AUM of Rs 3575 bn (~USD 47 bn) as of Jun-20, of which the equity-oriented AUM and non-equity-oriented AUM constituted Rs 1408 bn and Rs 2167 bn respectively. Company has 51.7% AUM from individual investors while the balance from Institutional side. It has 9.35 mn live individual accounts as on Jun-20. Over 81% of SIP book for HDFCAMC is signed for more than 5 years and 69% for more than 10 years, which shows long-term sustainability of revenue income. The company has network spread across 200 cities with 221 branches and 65,000 plus empanelled distributors consisting of banks, national distributors and independent financial advisors. As of Jun-20, IFAs, national distributors and banks generated 23.4%, 17.8% and


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9.9% of HDFC AMC’s total AUM, respectively, while the remaining 49% was invested in direct plans. HDFC Bank contributes 5.2% in total AUM and 9.6% in equity AUM distribution mix. The company has been consistently focusing on increasing its distribution through direct channel and thereby reducing dependence on parent and other banks. Diverse and vast suite of savings and investment products, coupled with well laid out and strong distribution network, across asset classes has been the backbone of the growth. Experienced Management Team HDFC AMC has a management team with extensive experience in asset management, banking and finance sector with a proven track record of performance at the helm. The Managing Director, Milind Barve has been with HDFC AMC since inception and with HDFC group for over 35 years. His term ends on January 31, 2021. The remuneration and nomination committee has been working on finding a successor. Prashant Jain joined HDFCAMC in 2003 when HDFCAMC acquired Zurich India Asset Management Co. where he had been since 1993. Under this senior leadership team, the company has demonstrated track record on execution across different economic cycles. Digital Initiatives The company has constantly focused on developing technology platform. Now they have managed to adopt digitization across functions like sales, client on-boarding and internal processes. During FY15-20, 36% CAGR in electronic transactions and 15% in total transactions were observed. In Q1FY21, 91.4% of the transactions were electronic (including website and mobile application) compared to ~69.3% in FY20. This has helped company in managing day to day work successfully at such time of social distancing. This will also continue to help company in reduction in operating expenses. During the quarter, the company used WhatsApp services for consumers, Video KYC, webinars etc. to offer doorstep consumer services amid lockdown. What could go wrong? Recently debt market has faced many big writedowns/offs on exposures to stressed corporates and looking at the current economic

situation there could be more such instances again in the near term. So this may create loss of confidence in debt market investors. Debt/liquid funds are facing large redemptions. From the beginning of Mar-20, corporates has begun to hoard cash due to the Covid-19 and lockdown situation. Even in the equity market AMCs are facing unprecedented volatility due to Covid-19 fear and that can cause a negative impact on the mind of retail investors.


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There is a possibility of considerable amount of lumpsum redemptions in FY21 as a result of the lockdown as investors tap into their savings. We believe that even SIPs may take a small hit. Also the growth in flows into mutual funds may slow due to savings getting impacted.

Market volatility (especially downward) has high correlation with fund flows into AMCs. So any prolonged period of negative returns from equity market can hurt company’s revenues hard.

Mutual Fund industry is highly competitive business. Apart from having a strong brand recall and vast distribution franchise, consistent fund manager reputation and performance is the key imperative for AUM growth. Continuous under performance of the schemes could lead to high level of redemption.

Any adverse change of regulations can also impact the business of the company.

Any big rise in passive funds might reduce inflows into actively-managed funds and this ultimately could reduce the yield for the company.

IFA and national distributors contribute 23.4% and 17.8% respectively in company’s total AUM as of Jun-20. So, company has dependency on IFA and distributors for selling its products; if company is unable to maintain relation or increase its distribution channel it could adversely affect its operations.

Fall in distribution commissions seen over the past three years may not sustain and may reverse.

HDFC AMC does not have a large presence in higher yielding PMS/AIF.

HDFC AMC gets premium valuations compared to local and global peers due to strong historical performance, brand name/parentage and expectation of strong long-term performance backed by robust inflows in an under-penetrated market. Any disappointment in any of these expectations could lead to some derating in the valuation.


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Company Profile: HDFC Asset Management Company Limited (HDFC AMC) is one of the largest and most profitable mutual funds in the country. It was

incorporated on December 10, 1999 and was approved by SEBI to act as an Asset Management Company for HDFC Mutual Fund on July 3,

2000. It has other SEBI licenses viz. PMS / AIF.

HDFC AMC operates as joint venture between HDFC Ltd and Standard Life Investments Ltd with holding of 52.69% and 21.24% respectively

as of Sep-20. Standard Life Investments Ltd is part of Standard Life Aberdeen.

HDFC AMC has a diversified asset class mix across Equity and Fixed Income/Others. It also has a countrywide network of branches along

with a diversified distribution network comprising Banks, Independent Financial Advisors and National Distributors.

Total AUM stands at Rs. 3,575 bn (39.4% Equity-Oriented) and Quarterly Average AUM (QAAUM) stands at Rs. 3,562 bn (37% Equity-

Oriented) as of Jun-20. It has 14.5% market share as of Jun-20 on the basis of QAAUM and equity-oriented AUM also.

Peer Comparison:

CMP Mcap Market Share AUM (Rs.

Cr) Equity as % of

total AUM SIP Book (Rs. Cr)

ROE EPS

FY22E MCap/AUM P/E FY22E

HDFC AMC 2368 499 14.5% 3,575 39.00% 9.6 35.6% 69.6 14% 33.7

NAM India 274 168 7.3% 2,737 42.70% 7.0 16.1% 9.25 6% 29.6 Source: Company, HDFC sec Research


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AUM Mix% Well diversified distribution channel SIP inflows(Rs bn)

MAAUM by Investor category ROE% Individual assets market share (%)


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Financials Profit & Loss Statement (in mn) Balance Sheet (in mn) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

As at March FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 19,152 20,033 17,514 20,542

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Growth (%) 8.8% 4.6% -12.6% 17.3%

Share Capital 1,063 1,064 1,064 1,064

Employee benefits expenses 2,063 2,147 2,098 2,266

Reserves 29,644 39,229 45,908 53,429

Operating expenses 4,630 2,163 1,387 1,469

Total Shareholders Funds 30,707 40,293 46,972 54,493

Operating Profits 12,460 15,722 14,030 16,807

Total Debt - 1,177 1,236 1,297

Operating Profit Margin (%) 65.1 78.5 80.1 81.8

Other Financial Liabilities & Provisions 1,028 1,149 888 1,029

EBITDA 12,460 15,722 14,030 16,807

Net Deferred Tax Liability (323) (540) (540) (540)

EBITDA Margin (%) 65.1 78.5 80.1 81.8 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 31,412 42,078 48,556 56,279

EBIDTA Growth (%) 28.9% 26.2% -10.8% 19.8% APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Depreciation 129 504 476 508

Net Block 429 1,613 1,387 1,340

EBIT 12,331 15,219 13,553 16,299

Non current Investments 29,350 39,445 42,607 45,698

Other Income (includes treasury ) 1,816 1,402 3,162 3,361

Loans & Deposits 681 311 336 363

Interest & Financial Charges - 90 94 99

Total Non-current Assets 30,460 41,369 44,330 47,400

PBT 14,147 16,531 16,621 19,561

Debtors 827 606 960 1,126

Tax 4,481 3,898 3,956 4,695

Cash & Equivalents 320 266 3,170 7,641

APAT 9,666 12,633 12,665 14,866

Other Current Assets 280 304 480 563

APAT Growth (%) 34.0% 30.7% 0.3% 17.4%

Total Current Assets 1,426 1,176 4,610 9,329

RPAT 9,306 12,624 12,665 14,866

Creditors 474 467 384 450

RPAT Growth (%) 29.0% 35.7% 0.3% 17.4%

Total Current Liabilities 474 467 384 450

AEPS (diluted) 45.3 59.2 59.3 69.6

Net Current Assets 953 709 4,226 8,879

EPS Growth (%) 32.7% 30.6% 0.3% 17.4%

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 31,412 42,078 48,556 56,279

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research


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Cash Flow Statement (in mn) Key Ratios

FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Reported PBT 13,747 16,531 16,621 19,561

PROFITABILITY (%)

Non-operating & EO Items (1,179) (1,175) (3,162) (3,361)

EBITDA Margin 65.1 78.5 80.1 81.8

Interest Expenses - 90 94 99

EBIT Margin 64.4 76.0 77.4 79.3

Depreciation 129 504 476 508

APAT Margin 48.6 63.0 72.3 72.4

Working Capital Change 691 945 (723) 15

RoE 37.0 35.6 29.0 29.3

Tax Paid (4,499) (4,045) (3,956) (4,695)

Core RoCE 541.6 1,428.4 1,155.0 1,048.3

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 8,889 12,848 9,351 12,127

RoCE 37.0 35.0 28.2 28.6

Net Capex (175) (298) (250) (461) EFFICIENCY

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 8,714 12,551 9,101 11,666 Tax Rate (%) 31.7 23.6 23.8 24.0

Investments (8,030) (9,471) (3,162) (3,091)

Asset Turnover (x) 46.9 19.6 11.7 15.1

Non-operating Income 440 493 2,986 3,278

Net D/E (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (0.1)

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (7,766) (9,275) (426) (274)

PER SHARE DATA

Interest Expenses - - (94) (99)

AEPS (Rs/sh) 45.3 59.2 59.3 69.6

FCFE 8,714 12,551 9,006 11,567

CEPS (Rs/sh) 46.1 61.7 61.8 72.2

Proceeds From Issue of Share Capital 1,889 154 - -

DPS (Rs/sh) 24.0 28.0 34.5 40.5

Dividend (3,075) (3,076) (5,986) (7,346)

BV (Rs/sh) 143.9 188.8 220.1 255.3

Others - - - -

VALUATION

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (1,186) (2,922) (6,080) (7,445)

P/E 51.8 39.7 39.6 33.7

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (63) 652 2,845 4,409

P/BV 16.3 12.4 10.7 9.2

Opening Cash & Equivalents 20 320 266 3,170

Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7

Closing Cash & Equivalents 320 266 3,170 7,641

Source: Company, HDFC sec Research


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One Year Price Chart

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

HDFC AMC


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Disclosure:

I, Nisha Sankhala, MBA, author and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication

of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the

month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –No

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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