Mobile Broadband Access Networks Planning and Evaluation Using Techno-economic Criteria

Visnja Krizanovic, Drago Zagar, Goran Martinovic

Faculty of Electrical Engineering, J. J. Strossmayer University Osijek, Croatia E-mails: visnja.krizanovic@etfos.hr, drago.zagar@etfos.hr, goran.martinovic@etfos.hr,

Abstract. The paper evaluates mobile broadband access networks deployment from the techno-economic aspects. In this paper, the current situation in the European broadband market is analyzed. Furthermore, the model to assess the cost of mobile broadband access networks is introduced and the techno-economic analyses of mobile broadband networks deployments are conducted. In the chosen sample area scenarios the costs for mobile WiMAX and LTE networks implementation are calculated and presented using several profitability evaluation methods. The results of these analyses are compared, and the specificities of each scenario affecting the mobile broadband access costs are highlighted. Keywords. Mobile broadband, broadband access deployment, techno-economic evaluation. 1. Introduction

Broadband Internet is proven to enhance the quality of life of residential users and to increase the productivity for business users [9]. The need for broadband services is continually growing. Hence, broadband deployment is encouraged by many national broadband development programmes and strategies in Europe [8] and worldwide.

Further deployment of broadband access networks and an upgrade of the existing wired and wireless infrastructure with new fixed and mobile broadband access technologies (xDSL, FTTx, mobile WiMAX or LTE) are required [4].

In areas without an adequate fixed broadband infrastructure, mobile broadband could provide an alternative mode of access. Compared to fixed access, mobile broadband access has more advantages in terms of mobility, compatibility and quality of service to support the high growth in demand for Internet services [5].

In order to use full benefits of mobile wireless broadband access, a sufficient amount of spectrum for mobile broadband services must be ensured.

The assignment of spectrum for wireless broadband services in the 3.5 GHz band, refarming of GSM spectrum in the 900 MHz and 1 800 MHz bands, and opening of the digital dividend spectrum in the 800 MHz bands are very important steps in the wireless broadband deployment process [6]. In the year 2009, the restriction that reserved the 900 MHz spectrum exclusively for GSM services has been removed by the EU Commissions "GSM Directive". The Directive enabled co-existence of GSM and UMTS systems in the 900 MHz and 1 800 MHz bands. Currently, in the existing spectrum bands available to mobile operators LTE can be deployed. Moreover, LTE can be deployed in new spectrum bands the 800 MHz band which enables efficient LTE deployment over large areas and the improvement of the network coverage, and the 2.6 GHz band. In Croatia, the spectrum assignment plan was amended to allow the use of broadband services in the 900 MHz and 1 800 MHz spectrum bands preliminary reserved for GSM, following the adoption of the Electronic Communications Act in 2008. Furthermore, the Croatian National Regulator renewed the existing spectrum licences of three mobile operators until 2024 on the technology neutral basis [6].

Since pure technical superiority is not a guarantee of market success for new broadband access technologies, in order to foster further broadband implementation, the techno-economic analyses of access networks deployments are essential [1]. The most important costs associated with the deployment, operation and maintenance of two new mobile wireless broadband access technologies, mobile WiMAX and LTE, are taken into consideration in this paper, and the cost-effectiveness of their implementation is determined [16]. Furthermore, a set of technical and financial results is presented to show the effects of service penetrations on the overall costs of networks deployments [11]. The sensitivity analyses are conducted with the support of the TEA|WiMAX & LTE [18] business case freeware analysis tools and the Crystal Ball software [13].

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doi:10.2498/iti.2012.0469

2. Broadband market

According to the EU Enlargement Countries risk assessment report [6] published in March 2011, Croatia has been ranked as the low risk regulatory environment. The Croatian electronic communications market has been assessed as a market that has an attractive entry potential for the new-entry operators. The results of the regulatory risk assessment report showed that the Croatian fixed telephony and broadband markets infrastructure developement and competitive conditions are now comparable to many EU countries. The effort to bridge the existing digital gap between Croatia and EU countries has resulted in a significant growth in the number of broadband connections in Croatia over the past few years, according to the data provided for Europe and Croatia [7]. The number of fixed broadband connections in Croatian market with breakdown by operator and technology in the first quarter of 2010 is presented in Table 1 [7].

Table 1. Fixed broadband market situation

Croatian broadband market

xDSL Cable FWA FTTx Leased lines Total

number

Incumbent operator 524.397 - 36 - 614 525.046

Alternative operator 121.963 40.777 19.969 3.657 392 186.758

Total nr. 646.360 40.777 20.005 3.657 1.006 711.804

Fixed broadband technologies are currently dominant access technologies in Croatian market. However, the penetration of mobile broadband is growing fast. Measured as the number of dedicated data card users in Croatia, mobile broadband penetration has reached 7.75% by the end of the year 2011. 3. Mobile broadband access

Wireless mobile broadband technologies have a great potential for providing the cost-effective access solution in underserved areas and in areas where the penetration of wired broadband infrastructure is low [3]. Hence, in this paper, two new wireless mobile access technologies are analyzed and compared mobile WiMAX access and LTE access. 3.1. WiMAX access

Mobile WiMAX systems offer scalability in

access technology and a network architecture, thus providing the flexibility in the network

deployment options and service offerings [14]. The most important feature of WiMAX technology is its high data throughput which results in a better data multiplexing and a low data latency which is essential to enable high quality broadband services [19].

The performance of WiMAX networks depends on the available frequency bands [15]. In Croatia, fixed WiMAX is operating in the licensed 3.4 - 3.6 GHz frequency band which makes possible the non-line-of-sight operation. In the year 2010 there were 30 valid licenses covering all Croatian counties. However, some operators returned their licenses and in 2011 there were only five valid licenses covering eight Croatian counties. Two operators offered commercial WiMAX services.

3.2. LTE Access

LTE broadband access enhances demanding multimedia applications and services due to high data rates. Moreover, LTE provides some advanced capabilities for the services that require a high-speed wireless data transmission and supports harmonization with other radio access technologies [15]. The most important characteristics of LTE technology are a high throughput, a low latency, a high quality of users experience, a simple architecture and low maintenance costs.

A great advantage of LTE technology is the broad coverage. Due to the LTE bandwidth and the frequency of 800 MHz, even islands and rural areas should have an excellent coverage and permanent Internet access.

The LTE standardization covers two operating modes the FDD and the TDD mode. Mainly, LTE systems use the paired spectrum FDD mode, while the LTE TDD mode makes a good solution for providing a high speed mobile broadband access in an unpaired spectrum [2].

First commercially launched LTE networks have been reported in Norway and Sweden in 2009, operating in the 2.6 GHz band. Since 2010, LTE is available in several Western European countries, as well. Considerable LTE technology trials and deployment activities in Central and Eastern Europe are also present. In those markets providers are aiming at the delivery of the UMTS and the LTE access to residential and commercial broadband services that cannot be supported with the standard fixed infrastructure.

In Croatia some notable trials in the LTE deployment are also present.

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4. Mobile Broadband Access Networks Planning and Profitability Evaluation 4.1. Market analysis

The objective of this analysis is to demonstrate how the network operator can cope with demographics, economical constraints and estimated broadband service demands in different scenarios [17]. The geographic definition of the area examined in this study is a Sample area. After analyzing the Sample area, an analogy between different scenarios in the Sample area and other areas can be made. A representative municipality area consisting of three different area types, the Municipality of Osijek, is chosen as the Sample area. The territorial and demographical data for the analysed area, divided into rural, suburban and urban part, are summarized in Table 2.

Table 2. Sample area data

Sample area

Territory Demography

Scenario Area [Sq km]

Target area

[Sq km] Unit Total number

Total target

number

Rural 40 32 Households 1.903 571 SOHOs 4 1

Suburban 70 63 Households 5.929 1.779 SOHOs 20 6

Urban 30 30 Households 33.913 10.174 SOHOs 230 69

The BSs transmit power of 36 dBm is considered for the analysis [19]. The transmit power of user terminal equipment is supposed to be 25 dBm for WLAN USB, i.e. 27 dBm for Indoor UTE and Home Gateway, respectively [19]. Base station antennas are assumed to provide sectorized coverage and assess the capacity of the base station. The overbooking factor of three for households and two for SOHOs is considered, and the BS overlaping factor of 10% is assumed. The cell edge coverage probability of 90% is analyzed.

For mobile WiMAX and LTE link modulation and coding shemes the total data rates are calculated, as presented in Table 4.

Table 4. Mobile WiMAX and LTE data rates

The analysis is conducted for residential households and small business users (SOHOs). The average broadband access speed per user is assumed to be 20 Mbps in a downlink and 1 Mbps in an uplink direction. The assumed market forecast for the three area types is presented in Table 3. 4.2. Technical analysis

Mobile WiMAX and LTE access networks based on a PMP topology, with the equipment at the base station (BS) site serving multiple customers, are analysed.

Considering the coverage and capacity

performance and demands, presented in Table 5 and Table 6, the wireless network dimensioning process is carried out. First, it is presumed that the coverage demand can be fulfilled with a minimum number of BS cells optimized for a maximum range. Afterwards, additional sectors are added to fulfill the capacity demand [12]. The determined number of BSs and sectors as well as the total roll-out plan are presented in Table 7.

Table 3. Market forecast

Mobile WiMAX data rates Link modulation and coding

DL data rate

DL SNIR

UL data rate

UL SNIR

Radius [Km]

[Mbps] [dBm] [Mbps] [dBm] Rural Suburban Urban QPSK 1/2 x2 1,80 -89,38 0,67 -89,38 2,70 1,86 1,27 QPSK 1/2 3,60 -86,37 1,34 -86,37 2,26 1,57 1,10 QPSK 3/4 5,40 -83,37 2,02 -83,37 1,89 1,33 0,95 16QAM 1/2 7,20 -80,87 2,69 -80,87 1,63 1,16 0,84 16QAM 3/4 10,80 -77,37 4,03 -77,37 1,33 0,96 0,71 64QAM 2/3 14,40 -73,37 5,38 -73,37 1,05 0,77 0,59 64QAM 3/4 16,20 -71,37 6,05 -71,37 0,93 0,69 0,53

LTE data rates Link modulation

and coding scheme

DL data rate[Mbps]

DL SNIR [dB]

DL radius [Km]

UL data rate [Mbps]

UL SNIR [dB]

UL radius [Km]

QPSK 1/3 3,98 -7,00 6,52 3,51 -7,00 8,82 QPSK 2/3 7,95 -2,00 4,93 7,01 -2,00 6,67 QPSK 3/4 8,95 4,00 3,52 7,89 4,00 4,77 16QAM 1/2 11,93 6,50 3,06 10,52 6,50 4,15 16QAM 2/3 15,90 8,00 2,82 14,02 8,00 3,81 16QAM 3/4 17,89 10,00 2,52 15,78 10,00 3,41 64QAM 2/3 23,86 13,50 2,07 - - - 64QAM 3/4 26,84 15,00 1,90 - - - 64QAM 4/5 28,63 17,00 1,70 - - - 64QAM 5/6 29,82 18,00 1,61 - - -

Market forecast Scenario Year Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10 Rural Total target

number of households and SOHOs

27 42 67 90 123 155 180 199 211 217 Suburban 84 131 209 284 388 487 565 620 657 676

Urban 486 754 1.203 1.631 2.231 2.802 3.246 3.570 3.781 3.885 Total revenues []

Mobile WiMAX

Rural 9.390 19.905 31.605 44.490 60.510 78.060 93.000 104.505 112.425 116.835 Suburban 29.280 62.100 98.475 139.860 190.740 245.625 292.140 326.550 350.190 363.960 Urban 169.545 357.825 566.790 803.655 1.096.515 1.412.685 1.679.085 1.878.645 2.015.520 2.092.920

LTE Rural 8.910 22.770 35.970 51.810 70.290 91.740 110.550 125.070 135.300 141.240 Suburban 27.720 70.950 112.200 162.720 221.820 288.810 347.250 391.170 421.530 440.040 Urban 160.470 409.440 646.200 935.820 1.275.330 1.662.060 1.997.250 2.250.840 2.427.510 2.531.550

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Table 5. Coverage and capacity Coverage and capacity performance

Mobile WiMAX LTE

Scenario Rural Suburban Urban Rural Suburban Urban Average coverage Radius [Km] 2,70 1,86 1,27 6,52 5,09 3,61 Area [Sq km] 18,91 8,98 4,18 110,29 67,41 33,88 Average capacity per sector Down link [Mbps] 13,53 14,53 15,28 16,24 16,24 16,24 Up link [Mbps] 3,88 4,17 4,39 7,32 7,32 7,32

4.3. Economic and financial analysis

The costs associated with the access network deployment are the costs that include the investments to the network infrastructure and devices (CAPEX) and the costs that include the expenses originating from the network operating and managing (OPEX), as presented in Table 8. The costs included in the analyses represent the approximate average market prices from various sources (e.g. 3GPP and WiMAX Forum reports). 5. Results

The presented calculations are conducted to indicate whether the new entrant network operator's access network might be economically profitable in the three reference scenarios.

During the calculation process all relevant data for the analyzed market are included, and the technical, economic and financial analyses of the scenarios are conducted. The analyses cover a ten-year period. This period corresponds to the new Croatian Broadband Development Strategy goals [4].

The calculations have been conducted with the support of the TEA|WiMAX and TEA|LTE business case freeware analysis tools from

WiTech and the Crystal Ball tool from Oracle. However, the majority of the planning work and the analyzing process is done without using tools. The outcome of the analysis are the basic profitability measures - the payback period (PP), the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR).

The impact of discount rate changes on the profitability of different broadband investment projects is analyzed in the sensitivity analysis. The calculations are carried out for three different discount rates, as presented in Table 9. The 7% discount rate is the current discount rate in Croatia. For costs calculations, a discount factor of 9% is used to reflect a comparatively high risk involved (it corresponds to the last valid discount rate in Croatia) and the factor of 4.5% is used to reflect a low investment risk (its value corresponds to the discount rate used in Croatia in the period from 2002 to 2007). Results presented in Table 9 show the impact of discount rate changes on the investments in scenarios with different number of end users.

The NPVs of mobile WiMAX and LTE are presented in Figures 1 4. It can be seen that the greatest differences exist between the rural scenarios, where the mobile WiMAX compared to LTE pays back in a shorter time period. 6. Conclusions

The analyses define possible economic benefits from the mobile broadband access implementation. Almost all presented scenarios of Sample area provide positive NPVs and payback within the defined study period.

Table 6. Capacity demand

Table 7. Roll-out plan

Capacity demand Year Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10

Rural Down link [Mbps] 0,58 0,90 1,43 1,92 2,62 3,31 3,84 4,25 4,50 4,63 Up link [Mbps] 0,29 0,45 0,71 0,96 1,31 1,65 1,92 2,12 2,25 2,31

Suburban Down link [Mbps] 1,79 2,79 4,46 6,10 8,32 10,43 12,14 13,31 14,10 14,55 Up link [Mbps] 0,90 1,40 2,23 3,05 4,16 5,22 6,07 6,66 7,05 7,27

Urban Down link [Mbps] 10,50 16,30 26,01 35,31 48,32 60,71 70,31 77,31 81,90 84,16 Up link [Mbps] 5,25 8,15 13,00 17,65 24,16 30,36 35,16 38,66 40,95 42,08

Roll-out plan Year Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10

Mobile WiMAX

Rural Number of base stations 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Number of logical sectors 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Suburban Number of base stations 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Number of logical sectors 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Urban Number of base stations 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Number of logical sectors 15 21 24 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 LTE

Rural Number of base stations 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Number of logical sectors 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Suburban Number of base stations 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Number of logical sectors 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Urban Number of base stations 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Number of logical sectors 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

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Table 8. Mobile WiMAX and LTE expenditures Mobile WiMAX expenditures

CAPEX OPEX Base station MacroBTS

Scenario Rural Suburban Urban Site acquisition [] 2.500 Logical sector [] 8.000 Networking elements [] 2.000 Base stations MacroBTS MacroBTS MacroBTS Site equipping [] 2.000 Site lease and utilities (annual) [] 1.000 4.000 5.000 Civil works [] 3.000 Maintenance and spare (annual)[] 2.000 2.000 2.000 Project [] 4.500 Technical support (annual) [] 1.000 1.000 1.000 Installation and commissioning [] 1.500 Quality and assurance (annual) [] 500 500 500 Test activities [] 1.500 Operation (annual) [] 2.000 2.000 2.000

User equipment WLAN USB Indoor UTE User equipment

WLAN USB

Indoor UTE

WLAN USB

Indoor UTE

WLAN USB

Indoor UTE

Device [] 30 110 Maintenance and spare (annual)[] 2 5 2 5 2 5 Wired backhaul activation cost per BS [] 20.000 Annual spectrum license [] 20.000

LTE expenditures CAPEX OPEX

Enhanced node B Macro cell Scenario Rural Suburban Urban Site acquisition [] 800

Logical sector [] 8.000 Networking elements [] 2.000 Enhanced node B Macro cell Macro cell Macro cell Site equipping [] 1.000 Site lease and utilities (annual) [] 800 3.000 5.000 Civil works [] 0 Maintenance and spare (annual)[] 2.000 2.000 2.000 Project [] 3.000 Technical support (annual) [] 1.000 1.000 1.000 Installation and commissioning [] 1.500 Quality and assurance (annual) [] 1.000 1.000 1.000 Test activities [] 1.500 Operation (annual) [] 2.000 2.000 2.000

User equipment WLAN USB Home

Gateway User equipment WLAN

USB Home

GatewayWLAN

USB Home

Gateway WLAN

USB Home

Gateway Device [] 50 200 Maintenance and spare (annual)[] 2 5 2 5 2 5 Wired backhaul activation cost per BS [] 2.000 Annual spectrum license [] 20.000

The effect of subscriber densities on the economics of networks deployments is presented for three different types of areas. The results show that a greater number of potential broadband users increases the profitability of access networks deployments. Moreover, in sparsely populated areas, the profitability is relativelly poor for all access technologies [10]. However, wireless network deployments are necessary in sparsely populated and remote areas because of a limited availability of the alternative fixed access technologies.

A vast number of assumptions preceded the calculations carried out in the analysis. Since each of them holds a degree of uncertainty, the calculated values of actual network deployment

projects may be somewhat different from the calculated ones. However, the relations between prices reflect the real cases.

The impact of the discount rate changes on the profitability of different broadband investment projects is also analyzed. The results show that the change of a discount rate affects the scenario with the smallest investment risks, the one with the greatest number of users, the least. The results of previously conducted analyses have shown that the lower income countries derive significantly more benefits from mobile compared to fixed broadband access [15]. Hereafter, taking into account a rapid growth of mobile technology users worldwide, the investments in mobile access should not wait.

Table 9. Total cost of ownership and the sensitivity to discount rate changes

Total Cost of Ownership [] Year Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6 Y7 Y8 Y9 Y10

Mobile WiMAX Rural 118.651 82.929 42.302 42.572 43.809 44.269 44.253 44.215 44.014 43.722 Suburban 275.521 172.313 144.905 155.570 118.986 120.494 120.566 120.116 119.645 118.789 Urban 431.155 246.461 220.760 237.622 203.599 212.007 212.116 210.302 207.036 202.130 LTE Rural 92.891 98.614 67.997 68.212 70.109 70.569 70.223 69.910 69.379 68.757 Suburban 201.925 207.592 181.564 182.784 188.325 189.889 189.023 187.470 186.116 184.268 Urban 450.648 369.429 400.309 406.726 439.728 448.136 442.608 435.045 426.197 415.653 Sensitivity analysis Technology Mobile WiMAX LTE

Discount rate 4.5% 7% 9% 4.5% 7% 9% Scenario Profitability measure

Rural Net Present Value [] 31.574,00 2.762,00 -15.605,00 -19.395,00 -41.851,00 -55.723,00 Internal Rate of Return [%] 7,28 2,79 Payback Period [Years] 8,40 9,43

Suburban Net Present Value [] 294.504,00 192.617,00 126.877,00 269.493,00 173.796,00 112.454,00 Internal Rate of Return [%] 14,42 14,14 Payback Period [Years] 7,35 7,62

Urban Net Present Value [] 6.124.922,00 5.128.828,00 4.467.968,00 6.299.253,00 5.247.042,00 4.550.896,00 Internal Rate of Return [%] 109,95 95,27 Payback Period [Years] 2,63 3,07

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Figure 1. NPV in rural scenario - WiMAX

Figure 3. NPV in suburban scenario

7. Acknowledgements

The work was carried out within the Croatian MSESs project "Broadband Internet access and Internet services in rural areas" (165-0362027-1479). 8. References

[1] Allen S. M. et al. Business Case Assessments of a Wireless Broadband Network Deployment, Proceedings of Broadband Europe, France, 2005.

[2] Ayvazian B. LTE TDD Operator Business Case and Adoption Forecast, Paper, 2011.

[3] Bohlin E. Business Models and Financial Impacts of Future Mobile Broadband Networks, Telematics and Informatics, ELSEVIER, 2007.

[4] Broadband Development Strategy in Croatia for the period 2011-2015, Croatian Ministry of the Sea, Transport and Infrastructure, Zagreb, 2010.

[5] Elnegaard N. K. Stordahl K. Lydersen J. Eskedal T. G. Mobile Broadband Evolution and the Possibilities, Telektronikk, 2009.

[6] Enlargement Countries monitoring report, Final study report, Cullen International, March 2011.

[7] Enlargement Countries monitoring report, Report IV, Cullen International, December 2010.

[8] Europe 2020: A Digital Agenda For Europe, European Commission, Brussels, 2010.

[9] Holt L., Jamison M. Broadband and contributions to economic growth: Lessons from the US experience, Telecommunications Policy, 2009.

Figure 2. NPV in rural scenario - LTE

Figure 4. NPV in urban scenario

[10] Krizanovic V., Zagar D., Grgic K. Techno-Economic Analyses of Wireline and Wireless Broadband Access Networks Deployment in Croatian Rural Areas, Proceedings of ConTEL 2011, Graz, Austria, 2011. p. 265-272.

[11] Lee I. Handbook of Research on Telecommunications Planning and Management for Business, Volume I, Information Science Reference, Hershey, New York, 2009.

[12] Nawrocki M. J. et al. Modern Approaches to Radio Network Modelling and Planning. In Understanding UMTS Radio Network Modelling, Planning and Automated Optimisation: Theory and Practice, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., 2006.

[13] Oracle Crystal Ball tool, http://www.oracle.com/ [14] Raj P. et al. A Comparison and SWOT Analysis of

Towards 4G Technologies: 802.16e and 3GPP-LTE, IJCSE, Volume 2, 2010.

[15] Raut S. WiMAX or LTE: Which Technology to Adopt? A Comprehensive Comparative Study, Communications of the IBIMA, Volume 9, 2009.

[25] Thompson H. G. Jr., Garbacz C. Economic impacts of mobile versus fixed broadband, Telecommunications Policy, 2011.

[17] Verbrugge S. et al. Practical Steps in Techno-economic Evaluation of Network Deployment Planning, TE White paper, April 2009.

[18] WiTech TEA tools, http://www.witech.it/ [19] Zhan Y., Chen H. Mobile WiMAX: Toward

Broadband Wireless Metropolitan Area Networks, Auerbach Publications, USA, 2008.

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