Luca Brocca, Angelica Tarpanelli, Christian Massari

Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI-CNR), Perugia, Italy

Inception Workshop on: Enhancing the benefits of Remote Sensing Data and Flood Hazard Modeling in Index-based Flood Insurance (IBFI)

http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it

1st August 2015

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNR

1. To provide operational rainfall-runoff model from MISDc and hydraulic model using MIKE 11 in the process of flood forecasting;

2. To integrate past, current and future weather information to provide probability of flood levels in early warning process and its application in flood insurance;

3. To provide geospatial products including flood extent, flood depth and flood duration and possible provide composite flood index map;

4. To provide tools and models with detail technical report and possibly a research paper in 2016.

DELIVERABLES

Operational flood forecasting system

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNRFlood forecasting: lead time

A

B

t0 Hydraulic models

t1Hydrological models

t2 Meteorological modelsUN

CER

TAIN

TY

AC

CU

RA

CY

FORECASTING LEAD TIME

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNR

(4500 km2)

TIBER RIVER BASINCENTRAL ITALY

Nov-2005

Dec-2000

Dec-2008

Jan-2010

…not so distant from India!!!

A successful example!

OPERATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEMS FOR UMBRIA REGION CIVIL PROTECTION CENTRE

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNR

Flood event of January 2010

Jan-2010

http://www.cfumbria.it/

A successful example!

OPERATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEMS FOR UMBRIA REGION CIVIL PROTECTION CENTRE

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNRInput observations

Rainfall-Runoff Modelling (MISDc)

Rainfall and temperature time series, in near real-rime, by in situ

stations, remote sensing, numerical weather prediction modelling (for

future prediction, 2-5 days ahead)

Soil (geological) and land use maps

Hydrodynamic modelling (MIKE 11)

Cross section geometry

Infrastructure (bridge, reservoir, storaging structure)

Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

Field information (pictures)

Calibration and testing of modelling system

Discharge/flow data (by in situ stations)

Flood maps (by field surveys or remote sensing)

The system needs hydrometeorological data (rainfall and air temperature) as input. The soil/land use/topographic information are used for the

determination of hydrologic/hydraulic model parameter values.Finally, discharge data and flood maps are required for model testing and

validation.

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNRRainfall-runoff (hydrological) modelling

outlet

discharge

upstream

discharge

directly draining areaslinear reservoir IUH

EVENT-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL (MISD)

subcatchmentsgeomorphological IUH

channel routingdiffusive linear approach

rainfall excessSCS-CN

e(t):

evapotranspiration

f(t):

infiltration

g(t):

percolation

WmaxW(t)

s(t):

saturation

excess

SOIL WATER BALANCE MODEL

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

W(t)/Wmax

S (

mm

)

W(t) S(t)

S: soil potential maximum retention

W(t)/Wmax: saturation degree

FREELY AVAILABLE !!!http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/

tools-and-files/misdc

r(t):

rainfall

Hydrological modelling (MISDc) allows to estimate the discharge hydrograph

along the river by using rainfall and air temperature (observed and forecasted)

as input.

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNRHydraulic modellingThe flood hydrographs obtained by MISDc represent the upstream and internal boundary conditions for the hydraulic model (MIKE 11), which

simulates the flow dynamics within the channel floodplains system. After the hydraulic simulation a GIS interface is used to delineate the boundary of the

flooded areas by overlapping the computed water levels with high resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) available for the floodplain.

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNRFlood mappingEvery day, the flood forecasting system will provide flood

inundation maps for the region of interest from which the water depth, flow velocity, and flood duration for each

location (e.g., village) will be automatically extracted.

1st Aug. 2015Luca Brocca

IRPI-CNR

This presentation is available for download at: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/repository/public/presentations/2015/ FFS-IBFI-l.-brocca

FOR FURTHER INFORMATIONURL: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/people/l.brocca

URL IRPI: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it