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LULUCF Scenarios for LULUCF Scenarios for Brazil: 2005 Brazil: 2005 -- 20302030

Thelma KrugThelma KrugNational Institute for Space ResearchNational Institute for Space Research

InterInter--American Institute for Global Change ResearchAmerican Institute for Global Change Researchthelma@dir.iai.intthelma@dir.iai.int

Dialogue on Future International Actions to Address Global ClimaDialogue on Future International Actions to Address Global Climate Changete ChangeLima, Peru, October 11, 2005Lima, Peru, October 11, 2005

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General InformationGeneral Information

BrazilBrazil’’s Land Areas Land Area 845 651 000 ha845 651 000 haForest Cover 2000Forest Cover 2000 543 905 000 ha543 905 000 ha% of Land Area% of Land Area 64.3%64.3%

Forest Cover Change 1990Forest Cover Change 1990--20002000Average Annual ChangeAverage Annual Change : : --2 309 000 ha2 309 000 haAnnual Change RateAnnual Change Rate : : --0.4 0.4

Regional Comparison (FAO data)Regional Comparison (FAO data)

ArgentinaArgentina --218 000 ha218 000 ha -- 0.8%0.8%BoliviaBolivia -- 50 000 ha50 000 ha -- 0.3%0.3%ChileChile -- 20 000 ha20 000 ha -- 0.1%0.1%ColombiaColombia --180 000 ha180 000 ha -- 0.4%0.4%EcuadorEcuador --137 000 ha137 000 ha -- 1.2%1.2%ParaguayParaguay --123 000 ha123 000 ha -- 0.5%0.5%PeruPeru --269 000 ha 269 000 ha -- 0.4%0.4%UruguayUruguay -- 50 000 ha 50 000 ha -- 5.0%5.0%VenezuelaVenezuela --218 000 ha 218 000 ha -- 0.4%0.4%BRAZILBRAZIL --2 309 000 ha2 309 000 ha -- 0.4%0.4%

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Relevance of the LULUCF SectorRelevance of the LULUCF Sector

55100,0100,01 029 7061 029 706978 583978 583TOTALTOTAL

2275,475,4776 331776 331758 281758 281LULUCFLULUCF

001,61,616 87016 87016 94916 949IndustrialIndustrialProcessesProcesses

161623,023,0236 505236 505203 353203 353EnergyEnergy

% Var. % Var. 90/9490/94

% Cont. % Cont. 9494

1994199419901990

Relevance of the LULUCF SectorRelevance of the LULUCF Sector

--31317,57,575 61375 613110 233110 233Emissions Emissions and and Removals Removals by Soilsby Soils

--88--19,819,8--204 270204 270--189 378189 378AbandonmAbandonm. . Managed Managed LandLand

8892,492,4951 873951 873882 477882 477Forest Forest ConversionConversion

--44--4,64,6-- 46 88546 885-- 45 05145 051Change in Change in C stock in C stock in forestforest

% Var. % Var. 90/9490/94

% Cont. % Cont. 9494

1994199419901990

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Brazilian Forest EcosystemsBrazilian Forest Ecosystems

AmazoniaAmazoniaCerradoCerradoPantanalPantanalMata Mata AtlanticaAtlanticaCaatingaCaatingaCampos Campos SulinosSulinos

Brazilian EcosystemsBrazilian Ecosystems

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Relative Contribution of each Relative Contribution of each Biome to the Net EmissionsBiome to the Net Emissions

197,1197,153,853,8250,9250,9TOTALTOTAL

7,5 (4)7,5 (4)2,82,810,310,3PantanalPantanal

10,0 (5)10,0 (5)------10,010,0CaatingaCaatinga11,3 (6)11,3 (6)0,50,511,811,8Mata Mata AtlAtl..

51,5 (26)51,5 (26)15,715,767,167,1CerradoCerrado

116,9 (59) 116,9 (59) 34,934,9151,7151,7AmazoniaAmazonia

Net %Net %RemovalsRemovalsEmissionsEmissionsBiomeBiome

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7

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Rate of Gross Deforestation in Rate of Gross Deforestation in AmazoniaAmazonia

Desflorestamento Anual Amazonia

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

77/88 * 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/94 ** 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 "01/02" "02/03"

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Evolution of the Evolution of the Deforestation RateDeforestation Rate

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1400077

/88

88/8

9

89/9

0

90/9

1

91/9

2

92/9

4

94/9

5

95/9

6

96/9

7

97/9

8

98/9

9

99/0

0

00/0

1

01/0

2

02/0

3

03/0

4 (*

)

Anos

Taxa

de

desm

atam

ento

AcreAmapáAmazonasMaranhãoMato GrossoParáRondôniaRoraimaTocantins

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Land DistributionLand Distribution

According with IBGE:According with IBGE:

–– 24% of the territory are private24% of the territory are private

–– 29% legally protected areas (including 29% legally protected areas (including Conservation Units and Conservation Units and IndigeneousIndigeneousLands)Lands)

–– 47% public land47% public land

Permanent Interministerial Working Group for Permanent Interministerial Working Group for the Reduction of the Rate of Deforestation in the Reduction of the Rate of Deforestation in

the Legal Amazoniathe Legal Amazonia

Decree July 3, 2003Decree July 3, 2003Presidency of BrazilPresidency of Brazil

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Causes and Dynamics of Causes and Dynamics of

Amazonia DeforestationAmazonia Deforestation

Ministry of EnvironmentMinistry of Environment20012001

Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern

1. 1. Geographic ConcentrationGeographic Concentration

–– Along the Arc of DeforestationAlong the Arc of Deforestation70% (70% (north Mato Grosso north Mato Grosso ; south Para ; ; south Para ; RondoniaRondonia ; southeast ; southeast MaranhaoMaranhao; north ; north TocantinsTocantins; south ; south AmazonasAmazonas ; southeast ; southeast Acre)Acre)

15,7% of the total area of the region15,7% of the total area of the region– 631.369 km2 (63,136,900 ha) in 2002

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DesmatamentoDesmatamento 2002/20032002/2003

DesmatamentoDesmatamento atatéé 20022002

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Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern

2. Deforestation and Cattle Raising2. Deforestation and Cattle Raising–– Cattle raising responsible for 80% of the Cattle raising responsible for 80% of the

total area deforestedtotal area deforestedLess fiscal incentivesLess fiscal incentivesTechnological adaptationsTechnological adaptations

–– Productivity increaseProductivity increase–– Cost reductionCost reduction

Availability of cheap landAvailability of cheap landLack of environmental and work laws enforcement

Cattle Raising Evolution:Cattle Raising Evolution: 19981998--20032003

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Cattle Evolution : 1990 Cattle Evolution : 1990 -- 20032003

Fonte: IBGE

Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern

3. Abandonned Areas3. Abandonned Areas–– 25% of the total area deforested25% of the total area deforested

16,500,000 ha (abandoned, degraded, 16,500,000 ha (abandoned, degraded, extensive use)extensive use)

–– 12 to 15 M ha only in 12 to 15 M ha only in MatoMato GrossoGrosso–– 15,7% of the total area of the region15,7% of the total area of the region

New areas deforested for the expansion of agriculture and cattle raising, without the proper use of a large part of the already deforested areas

– Article 37-A of Forestry Code (Law no. 4771/65, modified by MP no. 2.166-67/2001)

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Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern4. Soybeans Expansion4. Soybeans Expansion–– Important recent vector of deforestation (MT ; PA)Important recent vector of deforestation (MT ; PA)

From 1999 From 1999 –– 20012001–– decrease in rice production (11.44%) and corn decrease in rice production (11.44%) and corn

production (1.94%)production (1.94%)–– Increase in soybean production by 57.31%Increase in soybean production by 57.31%– Expasion concentrated

Flat terrains Favourable soil, climate, vegetation Transportation infra structure

Soybeans Production Vector Soybeans Production Vector –– Crescent demand for soybeans in the globalized marketsCrescent demand for soybeans in the globalized markets–– Cheap price of land in AmazoniaCheap price of land in Amazonia–– Lack of internatilization of the social and environmental Lack of internatilization of the social and environmental

costs by the private sectorcosts by the private sector

Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern5. 5. Deforestation and Deforestation and Land SpeculationLand Speculation

Lack of supervision from the Public PowerLack of supervision from the Public Power

Fragility in the land tenure process (title of Fragility in the land tenure process (title of the land)the land)

Political incentives in prePolitical incentives in pre--election yearselection years

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Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern6. Wood Industry6. Wood Industry–– Illegal road openingsIllegal road openings

Facilitate access to land speculatorsFacilitate access to land speculatorsIntensive logging without management Intensive logging without management practicespractices

–– Increase in dry biomass Increase in dry biomass –– increased increased vulnerability to forest firesvulnerability to forest fires

–– Unsustainable logging accounts for Unsustainable logging accounts for approximately 90% of the wood extracted in approximately 90% of the wood extracted in AmazoniaAmazonia

Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern7. Infrastructure Investments7. Infrastructure Investments–– Road OpeningRoad Opening

From 1978 to 1994From 1978 to 1994–– 75% of the deforested areas within 50 km 75% of the deforested areas within 50 km

on each side of the paved roadson each side of the paved roads–– High valorization of the land within these High valorization of the land within these

limitslimits

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Road Construction Road Construction –– 2004 2004 -- 20072007

3 1723 172TOTALTOTAL698698CuiabCuiabáá -- SantarSantaréémm163163171171Rio Branco Rio Branco –– Boca do AcreBoca do Acre317317506506MarabMarabáá –– AltamiraAltamira2302308080Bonfim Bonfim -- NormandiaNormandia401401166166Sena Madureira Sena Madureira -- RiozinhoRiozinho364364453453Ferreira Gomes Ferreira Gomes -- OiapoqueOiapoque156156218218LLáábrea brea –– HumaitHumaitáá230230880880Porto Velho Porto Velho –– ManausManaus319319KmKmFrom From -- ToToBRBR

Energy InfraEnergy Infra--Structure 2004Structure 2004--20072007

Rondonia Rondonia –– Mato Mato GrossoGrosso

LT JiLT Ji--ParanParanáá –– Pimenta Bueno Pimenta Bueno –– Vilhena Vilhena –– JauruJauru

AmazonasAmazonasGas Pipeline Coari Gas Pipeline Coari -- ManausManaus

Amazonas Amazonas –– Para Para –– AmapAmapááLT TucuruLT Tucuruíí –– MacapMacapáá –– ManausManaus

ParaParaBelo Monte HidroBelo Monte Hidro

Amazonas Amazonas –– RondoniaRondoniaGas Pipeline Urucu Gas Pipeline Urucu –– Porto Porto VelhoVelho

RondoniaRondoniaMadeira River HidroMadeira River Hidro

StateState

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Roads and DeforestationRoads and Deforestation

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Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern8. Deforestation and Agrarian Reform8. Deforestation and Agrarian Reform

Land ConcessionsLand Concessions

Fonte: Alencar et al. Desmatamento na Amazônia: Indo Além da Emergência Crônica. IPAM. Belém, 2004.

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Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern9. Conservation Units (CU) and 9. Conservation Units (CU) and Indigeneous Land (IL)Indigeneous Land (IL)–– Remotely sensed data Remotely sensed data

Important role of CU and IL in the Important role of CU and IL in the conservation of extensive contiguous conservation of extensive contiguous forested landforested landLack of effective actionsLack of effective actions

–– Deforestation rate much higher than the Deforestation rate much higher than the creation of new CUs creation of new CUs

DIGITAL PRODESKAYAPO – PA INDIGENOUS RESERVE

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Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern10. Illegal Logging10. Illegal Logging–– Majority of the deforestation in Majority of the deforestation in

Amazonia without official authorizationAmazonia without official authorizationTotal area officially authorized in 1999 and Total area officially authorized in 1999 and 2000 correspond to 14.2% and 8.7% of the 2000 correspond to 14.2% and 8.7% of the total area deforestedtotal area deforested

Considerable deforestation in private land in Considerable deforestation in private land in Legal Reserve areas and Permanent Legal Reserve areas and Permanent Protected Areas (legally protected areas)Protected Areas (legally protected areas)

Colour composite image of 2003, from ASTER/TERRA, showing illegally logged areas in Mato Grosso State

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Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern11. New Deforestation Frontier11. New Deforestation Frontier–– Arc of Deforestation + previously Arc of Deforestation + previously

isolated places in Central Amazoniaisolated places in Central AmazoniaCattle raising expansionCattle raising expansionIllegal loggingIllegal loggingSoybeans expansionSoybeans expansionRoad openingsRoad openingsNew internal migrationNew internal migration

New Deforestation FrontierNew Deforestation Frontier

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Prodes 2003/2004

Prodes 2004 – Dynamic Areas

Costa MarquesSudeste do Pará (SFX, Cumaru do Norte)

SFX, Marabá,Novo Repartimento,Anapú.Buritis

Aripuanã

Lábrea, B. Acre

BR-163

SFXingu

Amazonia Deforestation PatternAmazonia Deforestation Pattern12. Deforestation and Biomass 12. Deforestation and Biomass BurningBurning

–– Biomass burning following, in general, Biomass burning following, in general, the spatial distribution of deforestationthe spatial distribution of deforestation

Establishment of agriculture and cattle Establishment of agriculture and cattle raising activitiesraising activities

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Hot Spots NOAA 12 (2000Hot Spots NOAA 12 (2000--2005)2005)

Mato Grosso

Pará

Rondônia

Maranhão

AmazonasAcre

Fonte: MCT Fonte: MCT -- INPE/DSAINPE/DSA -- MONITORAMENTO DE FOCOS DE CALOR / SATELITE MONITORAMENTO DE FOCOS DE CALOR / SATELITE -- NOAANOAA--12 ASCENDENTE (MOSAICO). Adaptado IPAM12 ASCENDENTE (MOSAICO). Adaptado IPAM

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Scenarios for Amazonia Scenarios for Amazonia DeforestationDeforestation

Soares Filho, B.S. Soares Filho, B.S. et alet al..

Estudos AvanEstudos Avanççados 19(54), 2005ados 19(54), 2005

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Deforestation Modeling EffortsDeforestation Modeling Efforts

ModelsModels::–– Future landFuture land--use patterns mimic use patterns mimic

historical patternshistorical patterns

–– Econometric analysisEconometric analysisLimited by data availability, lack of Limited by data availability, lack of explanatory mechanismsexplanatory mechanisms

–– Spatially explicit models responsive to Spatially explicit models responsive to policy intervention scenariospolicy intervention scenarios

Deforestation Modeling EffortsDeforestation Modeling EffortsBusinessBusiness--asas--usual scenariousual scenario–– Historical patterns of law enforcementHistorical patterns of law enforcement–– Agricultural creditAgricultural credit–– Agricultural expansionAgricultural expansion–– Agrarian trendsAgrarian trends

High governanceHigh governance–– Road paving is accompanied by recent Road paving is accompanied by recent

advances in the enforcement of environmental advances in the enforcement of environmental regulationregulation

–– LandLand--use planning by local governmentsuse planning by local governments–– Support for sustainable landSupport for sustainable land--use systemsuse systems–– Participation of organized civil societyParticipation of organized civil society

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AmazoniaAmazonia: scenes and : scenes and scenariosscenarios

SayagoSayago, D.; , D.; TourrandTourrand, J, J--F.; F.; BursztynBursztyn, , M.M.

University of Brasilia, 2003University of Brasilia, 2003

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AmazoniaAmazonia Scenarios in 2020Scenarios in 2020Scenario A Scenario A –– Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development–– Dynamic region, highly integrated, intense Dynamic region, highly integrated, intense

commerce within and outside Brazil commerce within and outside Brazil –– Recovery of degraded areasRecovery of degraded areas

Favorable international conditionsFavorable international conditionsImplementation of regional and environmental Implementation of regional and environmental policies in Brazilpolicies in Brazil

–– Structural investments geared towards new Structural investments geared towards new economic activities compatible with maintenance economic activities compatible with maintenance of environmental qualityof environmental quality

AmazoniaAmazonia Scenarios in 2020Scenarios in 2020Scenario B Scenario B –– Regional development and Regional development and quality of lifequality of life–– Medium income, moderately integrated Medium income, moderately integrated

with the rest of the country and the with the rest of the country and the world, high internal articulationworld, high internal articulation

–– High quality of life to its inhabitantsHigh quality of life to its inhabitants–– Use of management practices to explore Use of management practices to explore

the forest resourcesthe forest resources

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AmazoniaAmazonia Scenarios in 2020Scenarios in 2020Scenario C Scenario C -- Growth and Environmental Growth and Environmental DegradationDegradation–– Medium growth, highly integrated with Medium growth, highly integrated with

the national and international the national and international economieseconomies

–– Consolidation of the social inequalities, Consolidation of the social inequalities, negative environmental impactsnegative environmental impacts

–– Environmental question limited to Environmental question limited to normative and legal issues of low normative and legal issues of low effectivityeffectivity

AmazoniaAmazonia Scenarios in 2020Scenarios in 2020Scenario D Scenario D –– Stagnation and PovertyStagnation and Poverty–– Region is economically stagnated, Region is economically stagnated,

moderately integrated with national and moderately integrated with national and international economiesinternational economies

–– Moderate environmental degradation, as Moderate environmental degradation, as the economy and the population have the economy and the population have small growth, maintaining the small growth, maintaining the traditional patterns and inadequate traditional patterns and inadequate ecosystem maintenance ecosystem maintenance

Results from the Brazilian incapability to Results from the Brazilian incapability to define and implement regional and define and implement regional and environmental policies to guide regional environmental policies to guide regional development; instable world economydevelopment; instable world economy

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Most Likely ScenarioMost Likely Scenario

Slow but consistent tendency to Slow but consistent tendency to reorganize the economic basis of the reorganize the economic basis of the region, promoting the conservation region, promoting the conservation of the natural resources and the of the natural resources and the environmentenvironment–– Structural transformations (structural Structural transformations (structural

projects and initiatives in environmental projects and initiatives in environmental management).management).

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Measures to Combat DeforestationMeasures to Combat DeforestationValorization of the forest for conservation and Valorization of the forest for conservation and sustainable use; sustainable use; Recovery of degraded lands so as to increase Recovery of degraded lands so as to increase productivity and decrease the pressure upon the productivity and decrease the pressure upon the remaining forest; remaining forest; Territorial zoning, giving priority to the combat of Territorial zoning, giving priority to the combat of land speculation in public land;land speculation in public land;Creation of conservation units and homologation of Creation of conservation units and homologation of the indigenous land; the indigenous land; Improvement of the monitoring, licensing and Improvement of the monitoring, licensing and control instruments;control instruments;Incentives to activities aiming at the sustainable Incentives to activities aiming at the sustainable use of the forest resources and/or intensive use of use of the forest resources and/or intensive use of agriculture land;agriculture land;DeDe--centralized and shared management of public centralized and shared management of public policies between the Federal Power, states and policies between the Federal Power, states and municipalities;municipalities;Active participation of different sectors of the Active participation of different sectors of the society in the management of the policies related society in the management of the policies related to the prevention and control of deforestation to the prevention and control of deforestation

Drivers of DeforestationDrivers of Deforestation

Landowners clear their forest less if:Landowners clear their forest less if:–– Have legal titles of the landHave legal titles of the land–– Provided with access to credit and Provided with access to credit and

technical assistance in support of technical assistance in support of sustainable intensive landsustainable intensive land--use systems, use systems, such as perennial crops, annual crops such as perennial crops, annual crops within an intensified fallow management within an intensified fallow management system, intensive cattle production system, intensive cattle production (high grazing density) on improved (high grazing density) on improved pastures and forest managementpastures and forest management

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Drivers of DeforestationDrivers of Deforestation–– Forest conversion to pasture and agricultural Forest conversion to pasture and agricultural

fields suppressed locally by:fields suppressed locally by:

Protecting indigenous reserves and protected Protecting indigenous reserves and protected areas from invasion by ranchers and farmersareas from invasion by ranchers and farmersAvoiding the settlement of small landholder Avoiding the settlement of small landholder colonists in forested landscapes that are not colonists in forested landscapes that are not already occupiedalready occupiedImplementing deforestation and fire licensing Implementing deforestation and fire licensing systemssystemsReducing land speculation by nullifying illegal Reducing land speculation by nullifying illegal land titlesland titles

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CDM OpportunitiesCDM Opportunities

Until 2012Until 2012–– Limited to Limited to afforestationafforestation and and

reforestation project activities onlyreforestation project activities onlyStrong instrument to promote recovery of Strong instrument to promote recovery of degraded landsdegraded lands

–– 16,500,000 ha in 16,500,000 ha in AmazoniaAmazonia¼¼ of the CO2 emissions from of the CO2 emissions from deforestation, annually deforestation, annually Estimating 2 M ha at 130 t C haEstimating 2 M ha at 130 t C ha--11

Estimating annual removals of 4 Estimating annual removals of 4 tCtC haha--11

yryr--11

CDM OpportunitiesCDM OpportunitiesStrong instrument to promote reforestation Strong instrument to promote reforestation of Legal Reserve areas and Permanently of Legal Reserve areas and Permanently Protected Land (Protected Land (APPsAPPs) )

–– No legal requirement to reforest APPNo legal requirement to reforest APP–– Legal requirement to reforest LR areas (in Legal requirement to reforest LR areas (in

30 years)30 years)Common practice : areas not reforestedCommon practice : areas not reforestedHigh cost of implementation; high cost of High cost of implementation; high cost of maintenancemaintenance

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CDM OpportunitiesCDM OpportunitiesPresent LimitationsPresent Limitations

–– High cost of implementationHigh cost of implementation–– High costs of maintenanceHigh costs of maintenance–– Low rate of returnLow rate of return–– No enforcement (control at property level No enforcement (control at property level

almost nonalmost non--existent)existent)–– High CDM transaction costsHigh CDM transaction costs–– No methodology approvedNo methodology approved

Baseline and monitoring methodologies Baseline and monitoring methodologies proposed for A/R in unmanaged proposed for A/R in unmanaged grassland on protected areasgrassland on protected areas

CDM OpportunitiesCDM OpportunitiesPostPost--20122012

–– Potential eligible activitiesPotential eligible activitiesA/RA/R

–– Controversial eligible activitiesControversial eligible activitiesForest conservation (avoided Forest conservation (avoided deforestation)deforestation)Incentives for conservation on already Incentives for conservation on already existing Conservation Units?existing Conservation Units?Forest managementForest management