Lunar Tides Responsible and Variation in the Global Temperature Anomalies

8/17/2019 Lunar Tides Responsible and Variation in the Global Temperature Anomalies

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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Are Lunar Tides Responsible for Most of the Observed Variation in the Globally Averaged Historical Temperature Anomalies?PART A: Evidence for a Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation PART B: The Mechanism for a Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation

[Please see the next post]

PART A: Evidence for a Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation

1. Background

A. Keeling and Whorf Keeling and Whorf [2] " present evidence that global temperature has fluctuated quasi-decadally since 1855, except for

an interruption between about 1900 and 1945, thus supporting previous claims of failures of weather phenomena to

maintain a correlation with the sunspot cycle near 1920. This interruption, although difficult to explain by a sunspot

mechanism, does not rule out a tidal mechanism, because the astronomically driven tide raising forces since 1855 have

exhibited strong 9-year periodicity only when quasi-decadal periodicity was evident in temperature data. Furthermore,

unlike the perplexing shift in the phase of quasi-decadal temperature fluctuations with the sunspot cycle between the 19th

and 20th centuries, there was no such shift in phase with respect to tidal forcing."

[N.B. Figure 3 of Keeling and Whorf [http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.full.pdf ] clearly shows the 180degree phase shift between the mean sunspot number and decadal band-pass of global surface temperaturebetween about 1900 and 1945.]

Keeling and Whorf [1,2], working with globally averaged temperature data for both land and sea (expressed as an

anomaly beginning in 1855 and updated through mid-1995), report strong spectral peaks at 9.3, 15.2, and 21.7 years. They

refer to the 9.3 period as the quasi-decadal signal and the 21.7 year period as the bi-decadal signal.

Keeling and Whorf [1,2] show that the "near[quasi]*-decadal variations in global air temperature arecharacteristic of the past 141 years [1885 - 1995]*, except for a roughly 45-year interruption centered near 1920[i.e. 1900 - 1945]*. This pattern has also emerged using spectral analysis, specifically from the beating of twofrequencies found to be close to the 9th and 10th harmonics of the lunisolar tidal cycle of 93 years. Furthermore,temperature oscillations with periods near 6 years were found in the temperature record by spectral analysisnear the time of interference of the two near-decadal oscillations [i.e. 1900 - 1945]*, and thus close in period tothe 6-year repeat period of another prominent lunisolar tidal cycle."

[N.B. bracketed text with a "*" next to it are my additions to the original quote.]

http://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.full.pdfhttp://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.full.pdfhttp://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.full.pdfhttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zGzATT1RBPg/Vi_8B2pR1NI/AAAAAAAAA5k/bQ-mTuK_8pw/s1600/KW_fig03.jpghttp://www.pnas.org/content/94/16/8321.full.pdf


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The evidence cited above clearly does not support the solar explanation for the Quasi-Decadal and Bid-

Decadel Oscillations. Indeed, if anything, it implies that the lunar tidal explanation is by far the stronger of thetwo options.

Additionally, Laken et al. [8] claims that the ENSO is responsible for much of the changes in cloud cover atregional and global levels. If this is true, then it would be much more plausible to propose that variationsobserved in the historical world monthly temperature anomalies data should be determined by whatever

mechanism controls the long-term variations in the ENSO.

Evidence is beginning to mount that the ENSO climate phenomenon is being primarily driven by by the long-term luni-solar tidal cycles. The purpose of this blog post is to further investigate this possibility.

2. The Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation A. Evidence that the onset of El Nino events are driven by the Luni -solar tides.

Here is a quick summary of the evidence to support the claim that the timing for the onset of El Nino events is

determined by the luni-solar tidal cycles:

1. Sidorenkov [10,11] has found that the SOI index that is used to monitor El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate

variations has significant spectral components that are remarkably close to the sub-harmonics of the free nutation period of

the Earth's poles (i.e. the 1.185 tropical year Chandler Wobble) and the super-harmonics of the Earth's forced nutation (i.e.

the 18.60 tropical year lunar nodal precession cycle). Specifically, Sidorenkov finds that the periods of the n = 2, 3, 4 and 5

sub-harmonics of the Chandler Wobble (CW) at 2.37, 3.56, 4.74, 5.93 years, closely match the periods of the n = 3, 4, 5 and

8 super-harmonics of the lunar nodal precession at 6.20, 4.65, 3.72, 2.33 years. Sidorenkov argues that external forcing by the lunar-solar tides, acting at the super-harmonics of the Earth's forced

nutation produce non-linear enhancements of the oscillations in the Earth’s atmosphere-ocean system that closely match

those seen in the ENSO indices. He also asserts that the resultant ENSO climate variations excite the CW through a

resonant coupling with the sub-harmonics of the free nutation period of the Earth's pole. In essence, Sidorenkov is

proposing that the ~ 4.5 year variations that are seen in the ENSO climate system are being driven by external forcing on

the Earth’s atmosphere-ocean system by the lunar-solar tides.

2. Li [14], Li and Zong [15], Li et. al. [16], and Krahenbuhl [17] clearly show that luni/solar induced atmospheric tides are

present at altitudes above about 3000 m.

3. Wilson [18] shows that if you control for the changes in the mean (atmospheric) sea-level pressure (MSLP) of the

Southern Hemisphere Sub-Tropical High Pressure Ridge that are caused by the Sun (i.e. the seasonal cycle), then it possible

to see the much smaller long-term changes caused by the luni-solar tides.

4. Wilson [19] shows that lunar atmospheric tides can produce small but significant long term changes in the overall

pressure of the four main semi-permanent sub-tropical high pressures systems in the Southern Hemisphere. Wilson shows

that an N=4 standing wave-like pattern in the MSLP circumnavigates the Southern Hemisphere once every every 18 or 18.6

years. This standing wave will naturally produce large extended regions of abnormal atmospheric pressure passing over the

semi-permanent South Pacific subtropical high roughly once every ~ 4.5 - 4.7 years. These moving regions of higher/lower

than normal atmospheric pressure will increase/decrease the MSLP of this semi-permanent high pressure system,temporarily increasing/reducing the strength of the East-Pacific trade winds. This could led to conditions that preferentially

favor the onset of La Nina/El Nino events.

5. Wilson [20] has also shown that based upon the premise that the 31/62 year Perigy-Syzygy seasonal tidal cycle plays

a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niño events, its effects for the following three new moon epochs:

New Moon Epochs:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April 1870

Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932

Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994


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[The New Moon Epochs have peak seasonal tides that are dominated by new moons that are predominately in the northern

hemisphere]

should be noticeably different from its effects for the following full moon epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:

Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963

Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

[The Full Moon Epochs have peak seasonal tides that are dominated by full moons that are predominately in the

southern hemisphere]

Wilson found that:

a. El Niño events in the New Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun

at the times of the Solstices.

b. El Niño events in the Full Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun atthe times of the Equinoxes.

and these simple rules explain the onset years for all but five of the 27 moderate to strong El nino events that have occurred

since 1865-70 when directly measured world-wide sea-surface temperatures have become available.

6. Following in the footsteps of Sidorenkov [9-13] and Wilson [18-20] , Paul Pukite [21] has found that he can generate

both the QBO and the SOI index using the luni-solar tidal forcing upon the Earth. He accomplishes this by allowing for the

aliasing of the tidal signal caused by the seasonal (yearly) cycles.

Using the seasonally aliased tidal forcing as his forcing term for the QBO, Pukite is able to accurately reproduce the

historical observed QBO time series. Pukite claims that:

"The rationale for this is that the faster lunar cycles will not cause the stratospheric winds to change direction, but if these

cycles are provoked with a seasonal peak in energy, then a longer-term multi-year period will emerge. This is a well-known

mechanism that occurs in many different natural phenomena."

In essence, he is adopting the principle laid out in Wilson [18] which proposed that effects of the long-term tides upon the

Earths's atmosphere (and oceans) are amplified by annual (i.e. seasonal) aliasing. This principle states that:

"The most significant of the large-scale systematic variations of the atmospheric surface pressure, on an inter-annual to

decadal time scale, are those caused by the seasons. These variations are predominantly driven by changes in the level of

solar insolation with latitude that are produced by the effects of the Earth's obliquity and its annual motion around the Sun.

This raises the possibility that the lunar tides could act in "resonance" with (i.e. subordinate to) the atmospheric pressure

changes caused by the far more dominant solar driven seasonal cycles. With this type of simple “resonance” model, it is

not so much in what years do the lunar tides reach their maximum strength, but whether or not there are peaks in the strength of the lunar tides that re-occur at the same time within the annual seasonal cycle."

There are two steps to Pukite's model:

(1) Determine the lunar gravitational potential as a function of time, and

(2) plot the potential in units of 1 month or 1 year.

Pukite indicates that this last part is critical, as that emulates the aliasing required to remove the sub-monthlycycles in the lunar forcing.


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Finally, he says that:

"If one then matches this plot against the QBO time-series, you will find a high correlation coefficient. If the lunarpotential is tweaked away from its stationary set of parameters, the fit degrades rapidly."

7. It known that persistent Westerly Wind Bursts associated with the penetration of Madden Julian Oscillations into theWestern Pacific ocean are responsible for wide-spread reversal of the westerly Equatorial trade winds which are associated

with the onset or triggering of El Nino events.

Lian et al. [22] and Chen et al. [23] have shown that for every major El Nino event since 1964, the drop off in easterly

trade wind strength has been preceded by a marked increase in westerly wind bursts (WWB) in the western equatorial

Pacific Ocean. These authors contend that the WWB generate easterly moving equatorial surface currents which transport

warm water from the warm pool region into the central Pacific. In addition, the WWB create down-welling Kelvin waves in

the western Pacific that propagate towards the eastern Pacific where they produce intense localized warming [McPhaden

24]. It is this warming that plays a crucial in the onset of El Nino events through its weakening of the westerly trade winds

associated with the Walker circulation.

Wilson [2016] found that the times when Pacific-Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations (PPMJO) are generated in the

Western Indian Ocean are related to the phase and declination of the Moon. This findings provide strong observational

evidence that the lunar tidal cycles are primarily responsible for the onset of El Nino events. (This paragraph was

updated on 11/01/2015)

References

[1] Keeling, CD. and Whorf, TP. (1996), Decadal oscillations in global temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide. In: Natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. Climate Research Committee, National Research Council.

Washington, DC:The National Academies., pp. 97-110.

[2] Keeling, CD. and Whorf, TP. (1997), Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides. Proceedings of the

National Academy of Sciences., 94(16), pp. 8321-8328.

[3] Copeland, B. and Watts, A. (2009), Evidence of a Luni-Solar Influence on the Decadal and BidecadalOscillations in Globally Averaged Temperature Trends, retrieved at:http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/

[4] Brohan, P. Kennedy, J. Harris, I. Tett, S. Jones, P. (2006), Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed

temperature changes: a new data set from 1860., Journal of Geophysical Research., 111, D12106, data retrieved

at: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/

[5] Bell, PR. (1981), The combined solar and tidal influence on climate. In: Sofia, SS, editor. Variations of the SolarConstant. Washington, DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration, pp. 241 – 256.

[6] Svensmark, H. (1998), Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate"., Physical Review Letters 81 (22), pp. 5027 – 5030

[7] Svensmark , H. (2007), Astronomy & Geophysics Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges., Astronomy &

Geophysics, 48 (1), pp. 1.18 – 1.24.

[8] Laken, B., Palle, E., and Miyahara, H., (2012), A Decade of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer: Is a

Solar – Cloud Link Detectable?, Journal of Climate, (25), pp. 4430 - 4440, retrieved at: journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00306.1

[9] Sidorenkov, NS. (2000), Chandler Wobble of the poles as part of the nutation of the Atmosphere, Ocean,Earth system. Astron Rep, 44 (6), pp. 414-419.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/https://www.blogger.com/goog_321510919https://www.blogger.com/goog_321510919https://www.blogger.com/goog_321510919https://www.blogger.com/goog_321510919https://www.blogger.com/goog_321510919https://www.blogger.com/goog_321510919http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/


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[10] Sidorenkov NS. (1992), Excitation mechanism of Chandler polar motion. Astron J., 69 (4), pp. 905-909.

[11] Sidorenkov N S. The effect of the El Nino Southern oscillation on the excitation of the Chandler motion ofthe Earth's pole. Astron Rep 1997; 41(5): 705-708.

[12] Sidorenkov NS. Physics of the Earth’s rotation instabilities. Astron Astrophys Transact 2005; 24(5): 425-439.

[13] Sidorenkov N., (2014) The Chandler wobble of the poles and its amplitude modulation,http://syrte.obspm.fr/jsr/journees2014/pdf/

[14] Li, G. (2005), 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide and lunar forcing on atmospheric circulation., Adv Atmos Sci.,22(3), pp. 359-374.

[15] Li, G and Zong, H. (2007), 27.3-day and 13.6-day atmospheric tide., Sci China (D), 50(9), pp. 1380-1395.

[16] Li, G, Zong, H, Zhang, Q. (2011), 27.3-day and average 13.6-day periodic oscillations in the earth’s rotation rate and

atmospheric pressure fields due to celestial gravitation forcing., Adv Atmos, 28(1), pp. 45-58.

[17] Krahenbuhl D.S., Pace, M.B., Cerveny, R.S., and Balling Jr, R.C. (2011), Monthly lunar declination extremes’

influence on tropospheric circulation patterns., J Geophys Res, 116, pp. D23121-6.

[18] Wilson, I.R.G. (2012), Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-

Tropical High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia., The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 6, pp. 49-60.

[19] Wilson, I.R.G. (2013), Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric

Science Journal, 7, pp. 51-76.

[20] Wilson, I.R.G. (2014), Evidence that Strong El Nino Events are Triggered by the Moon - IV,

retrieved at:http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.html

[21] Pukite, P. (2106), Pukite's Model of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Letters, retrieved at:http://contextearth.com/2015/10/22/pukites-model-of-the-quasi-biennial-oscillation/

[22] Lian, T., D. Chen, Y. Tang, and Q. Wu (2014), Effects of westerly wind bursts on El Niño:

A new perspective, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp. 3522 – 3527.

[23] D. Chen, Y., T. Lian, C. Fu, Cane F.A., Y. Tang, Murtugudde, R., X. Song, Q. Wu and L. Zhou (2015), Strong

influence of westerly wind bursts on El Niño diversity, Nature Geoscience, 8 (5), pp. 339 – 345.

[24] McPhaden, M. J. (1999), Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino, Science, 283, pp. 950 – 954.

[25] Wilson, I.R.G. (2016) Do lunar tides influence the onset of El Nino events via their modulation of Pacific-Penetrating

MAdden Julian Oscillations?, submitted to the The Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

http://syrte.obspm.fr/jsr/journees2014/pdf/http://syrte.obspm.fr/jsr/journees2014/pdf/http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.htmlhttp://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.htmlhttp://contextearth.com/2015/10/22/pukites-model-of-the-quasi-biennial-oscillation/http://contextearth.com/2015/10/22/pukites-model-of-the-quasi-biennial-oscillation/http://contextearth.com/2015/10/22/pukites-model-of-the-quasi-biennial-oscillation/http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.htmlhttp://syrte.obspm.fr/jsr/journees2014/pdf/


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Saturday, October 31, 2015

Part B: Are Lunar Tides Responsible for Most of the Observed Variation in theGlobally Averaged Historical Temperature Anomalies?RETRACTION: The claim made in this blog post that the peak differential lunar force across the Earth's diameter

(that is parallel to the Earth’s equator) produces an annually aliased signal with a period of 20.58 years is incorrect.

The 384 day period in the peak differential lunar tidal force data that is used to establish 20.58 year bi-decadal

period only exists for periods around the 4.53 year long term maxima in lunar tidal force. It turns out that the long

term mean spacing between the short-term peaks in the differential tidal force is close to length of the Full Moon

cycle, which is equal to 1.12743 tropical years. Hence, the 384 day spacing between peaks does not last long enough

for the beat period of 20.58 years to physically meaningful. I would like to thank Paul Vaughan for pointing out this

stupid mistake upon my part. In my next post, I will explain why the bi-decadal oscillation is more likely to be

explained by a 20.85 tropical year period related to annual aliasing of the lunar tropical and anomalistic months.

PART B: A Mechanism for the Luni-Solar Tidal Explanation

A. Brief Summary of the Main Conclusions of Part A.

Evidence was presented in Part A to show that the solar explanation for the Quasi-Decadal and Bid-Decadel

Oscillations was essentially untenable. It was concluded that the lunar tidal explanation was by far the most probable

explanation for both features.

In addition, it was concluded that observed variations in the historical world monthly temperature anomalies data were

most likely determined by factors that control the long-term variations in the ENSO phenomenon.

Further evidence was presented in Part A to support the claim that the ENSO climate phenomenon was being primarily

driven by variations in the long-term luni-solar tidal cycles. Leading to the possibility that variations in the luni-solar tides

are responsible for the observed variations in the historical world monthly temperature anomaly data

Copeland and Watts [1] did a sinusoidal model fit to the first difference of the HP smoothed HadCRUT3 global monthlytemperature anomaly series and found that the top two frequencies in the data, in order of significance, were at 20.68 and

9.22 years.

It is generally accepted that the ~ 9.1 - 9.2 year spectral feature is caused by luni-solar tidal cycles associated with the

first sub-multiple of the 18.6 year Draconic cycle 9.3 (=18.6/2) = 9.3 years, possibly merged with the 8.85 year lunar

apsidal precession cycle, such that (8.85 + 9.3)/2 = 9.08 years . Hence the question really is:

Can a plausible luni-solar tidal explanation be given for the 20.68 yr bi-decadal oscillation?

B. A Potential Luni-Solar Tidal Mechanism

Wilson [2] has found that the times when Pacific-Penetrating Madden Julian Oscillations (PPMJO) are generated in the

Western Indian Ocean are related to the phase and declination of the Moon. This findings provides observational evidence

to support the hypothesis that the lunar tidal cycles are primarily responsible for the onset of El Nino events.

If this finding is confirmed by further study then it would reasonable to assume that changes in the level of

generation of PPMJO's is related the changes in the overall level of tidal stress acting upon the equatorial

regions of the Earth. A good indicator of the magnitude of these tidal stresses is the peak differential luni-solar


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tidal force acting across the Earth's diameter, that is parallel to the Earth's equator.

The peak differential tidal force of the Moon (dF) (in Newtons) acting across the Earth's diameter (dR =

1.2742 x 10^7 m), along a line joining the centre of the two bodies, is given by:

where G is the Universal Gravitational Constant (= 6.67408 x 10^-11 MKSI Units), M(E) is the mass of the Earth

(= 5.972 x 10^24 Kg), m(M) is the mass of the Moon (= 7.3477 x 10^22 Kg), and R is the lunar distance (in

metres) (N.B. that the negative sign in front of the terms on the right hand side of this equation just indicates that

the gravitational force of the Moon decreases from the side of the Earth nearest to the Moon towards the side of

the Earth that faces away from the Moon.)

Hence, the component of this peak differential lunar force (in Newtons) that is parallel to the Earth's equator is:

where R is the distance of the Moon and Dec(M) is the declination of the Moon.

In like manner, the component of the peak differential tidal force of the Sun (in Newtons) acting across the

Earth's diameter that is parallel to the Earth's equator is:

where Rs is the distance of the Earth from the Sun and Dec(S) is the declination of the Sun.

The relatively rapid daily rotation of the Earth compared to the length of lunar month means that the effects

upon the Earth of two differential tidal forces only changes slightly during any given single day. Hence, it is

possible to define a slowly changing peak luni-solar differential tidal force acting across the Earth's diameter thatis parallel to the Earth's equator, by simply adding each of the two forces above vectorially.

The geocentric solar and lunar distances, solar and lunar declinations and Sun-Earth-Moon angles were

calculated at 0:00, 06:00, 12:00, and 18:00 hours UTC for each day designated period (JPL Horizons on-Line

Ephemeris System v3.32f 2008, DE-0431LE-0431 [3].) . This data was then used to calculate the peak

differential luni-solar tidal force using the equations cited above. Figure 1a shows the calculated peak differential

luni-solar tidal force for the period from Jan 1st 1996 to Dec 31 2015:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lHLD8Cy89_M/VjI7s8_JT8I/AAAAAAAAA60/ms00EcH-Wd8/s1600/Clip_05_mod.jpghttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0aurhzg87eM/VjI5g9A7GCI/AAAAAAAAA6o/LsT2TbN0I9E/s1600/Clip_04_mod.jpghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-P_lFYKrzQBw/VjGyqMiowgI/AAAAAAAAA6A/HPes5ueDZws/s1600/Clip_02_mod.jpghttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ahaCgGC6qXA/VjGv__ZhGRI/AAAAAAAAA50/YlpjLOUVlaM/s1600/clip_01_mod.jpg


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Figure 1a

This plot shows that luni-solar differential tidal force reaches maximum strength roughly every 4.53 years (i.e

every 60 anomalistic lunar months = 1653.273 days or every 56 Synodic lunar months = 1653.713 days), withthe individual short term peaks near these 4.53 year maximums being separated by almost precisely 384 days

(or more precisely 13 Synodic months = 383.8977 days). In order to emphasize this point, figure 1a is re-plotted

in figure 1b for the time period spanning from 2000.0 to 2004.5:

Figure 1b.

C. Discussion

What figures 1a and 1b show is that peak luni-solar differential tidal stress acting upon the Earth's equatorial

regions reaches maximum strength roughly every a 4.53 years. This is very close to half the 9.08 year quasi-

decadal oscillation. It also shows that around these 4.53 peaks in tidal stress, the individual peaks in tidal stress

are almost precisely separated by 13 Synodic months.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-INEoNs4ZAVU/VjTav5FUYHI/AAAAAAAAA7Y/kg7gPyB3nUs/s1600/Fig_01b.jpghttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ymVKUL9r1Mc/VjTWtnXV9wI/AAAAAAAAA7M/RAJHg6m9L0U/s1600/Fig_01a.jpg


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Wilson [4] has proposed that:

"The most significant large-scale systematic variations of the atmospheric surface pressure, on an inter-annual to decadal

time scale, are those caused by the seasons. These variations are predominantly driven by changes in the level of solar

insolation with latitude that are produced by the effects of the Earth's obliquity and its annual motion around the Sun. This

raises the possibility that the lunar tides could act in "resonance" with (i.e. subordinate to) the atmospheric pressure

changes caused by the far more dominant solar-driven seasonal cycles. With this type of simple “resonance” model, it is

not so much in what years do the lunar tides reach their maximum strength, but whether or not there are peaks in the strength of the lunar tides that re-occur at the same time within the annual seasonal cycle."

In essence, what Wilson [4] is saying is that we should be looking at tidal stresses upon the Earth that are in resonance

with the seasons. (i.e. annually aliased). If we do just that, we find that the peaks in luni-solar differential tidal stressing

every 13 synodic months (= 383.8977 days) will realign with the seasons once every:

(383.8977 x 365.242189) / (383.8977 - 365.242189) = 7516.06.07 days = 20.58 tropical years

This is remarkable close to the 20.68 year bi-decadal oscillation seen by Copeland and Watts [1] in

their sinusoidal model fit to the first difference of the HP smoothed HadCRUT3 global monthly temperature anomalyseries.

Hence, it is plausible to propose that the 9.08 year quasi-decadal oscillation and the 20.68 year bi-

decadal oscillation can both be explained by variations in the tidal stresses on the Earth's equatorial

oceans and atmosphere caused by the peak differential luni-solar tidal force acting across the Earth's

diameter that is parallel to the Earth's equator.

Keeling and Whorf [5] gives support to this hypothesis by noting that the realignment time (or beat period)

between half of a 20.666 tropical year bi-decadal oscillation and the 9.3 year Draconic cycle is simply 5 times

the 18.6 year Drconic cycle:

(10.333 x 9.30) / (10.333 - 9.30) = 93.02 years = 5 x 18.6 tropical years

which is a well known seasonal alignment cycle of the lunar tidal cycles where:

1150.5 Synodic months = 33974.94253 days = 93.020 tropical years

1233.0 anomalistic months = 33974.76015 days = 93.020 tropical years

1248.5 Draconic months = 33974.45667 days = 93.019 tropical years

which only about 7.3 days longer than precisely 93.0 tropical years.

Keeling Whorf [5] claimed that 93 period lunar tidal cycle is able to naturally re-produce the hiatus in the quasi-

decadal oscillations of the rate-of-change of the smoothed global temperature anomalies that matched observed

between 1900 and 1945.

APPENDIX

It could be argued, however, that Keeling and Whorf's figure 03 [reproduced as figure 02 below] actually

points a hiatus period between about 1920 and 1950's as this is the period over which the phase changes

between the mean solar sunspot number and the peaks in their temperature anomaly curve:


11/12

Figure 2

Wilson [6] made a more accurate determination of the times at which the lunar-line-of-nodes aligned with the

Earth-Sun line roughly once every 9.3 years {the blue line in figure 3 below] and when the lunar line-of-apse

aligned with the Earth-Sun lineonce every 4.425 years [the brown line in figure 3 below]. They then used this to

determine the 93 year cycle over which these two alignment cycles constructively and destructively interfered

with each other [the red line in figure 3 below]. showing that the period of destructive interference actually

extended from about 1920 to 1950's.

Figure 3

Finally, Wilson [6] presented some data that showed that there was circumstantial evidence that the 93 year

lunar tidal cycle does in fact influence temperature here on Earth.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rxgy6R--qlw/VjTxJ7fVDfI/AAAAAAAAA7w/7LxfZNHwmn0/s1600/Fig_02a.jpghttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lk7-wkauPfc/VjTw2RRsDsI/AAAAAAAAA7o/AAUcJlZzasw/s1600/KW_fig03.jpghttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rxgy6R--qlw/VjTxJ7fVDfI/AAAAAAAAA7w/7LxfZNHwmn0/s1600/Fig_02a.jpg


12/12

Wilson [6] found that "...when the Draconic tidal cycle is predicted to be mutually enhanced by the

Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle there are observable effects upon the climate variables in the South Eastern part of

Australia. Figure 4 below shows the median summer time (December 1st to March 15th) maximum temperature

anomaly (The Australian BOM High Quality Data Sets 2010), averaged for the cities of Melbourne (1857 to 2009

– Melbourne Regional Office – Site Number: 086071) and Adelaide (1879 to 2009 – Adelaide West Terrace –

Site Number 023000 combined with Adelaide Kent Town – Site Number 023090), Australia, between 1857 and

2009 (blue curve).

Superimposed on figure 4 is the alignment index curve from figure 3, (the red line). A comparison between

these two curves reveals that on almost every occasion where there has been a strong alignment between the

Draconic and Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycles, there has been a noticeable increase in the median maximum

summer-time temperature, averaged for the cities of Melbourne and Adelaide. Hence, if the mutual reinforcing

tidal model is correct then this data set would predict that the median maximum summer time temperatures in

Melbourne and Adelaide should be noticeably above normal during southern summer of 2018/19 ."

Figure 4

References

[1] Copeland, B. and Watts, A. (2009), Evidence of a Luni-Solar Influence on the Decadal and Bidecadal Oscillations in

Globally Averaged Temperature Trends, retrieved at:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-

globally-averaged-temperature-trends/

[2] Wilson, I.R.G. (2016) Do lunar tides influence the onset of El Nino events via their modulation of Pacific-Penetrating

MAdden Julian Oscillations?, submitted to the The Open Atmospheric Science Journal.

[3] JPL Horizons on-Line Ephemeris System v3.32f 2008, DE-0431LE-0431 – JPL Solar System Dynamics

Group, JPL Pasadena California, available at: http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi, Jul 31, 2013.

[4] Wilson, I.R.G. (2012), Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-

Tropical High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia., The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 6, pp. 49-60.

[5] Keeling, CD. and Whorf, TP. (1997), Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides. Proceedings of the

National Academy of Sciences., 94(16), pp. 8321-8328.

[6] Wilson, I.R.G. (2013), Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric

Science Journal, 7, pp. 51-76.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dNye2WgacGo/VjTz2P1UqBI/AAAAAAAAA78/Ycl1TvOQO8M/s1600/Fig_02b.jpghttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/

Documents

Lunar Tides Responsible and Variation in the Global Temperature Anomalies