M d li f U b E d CO2 f B ijiModeling for Urban Energy and CO2 for Beijing

Jiang Kejun

Energy Research Institute

International Symposium “R li i L C b Ci i B id i S i d P li ”“Realizing Low Carbon Cities: Bridging Science and Policy”

February 16, 2009 Nagoya, Japan

1ERI, ChinaERI, China

Targeted Province

• Guangdong • Jiangsu • Shanghai • Chongqing• Chongqing • Tianjin • ShanxiShanxi • Shandong• Guangxi• Ningxia

2

Energy Per Capita, tceEnergy Per Capita, tce

67

3456

tce

012

g u i g n i g i a

Guang

dong

Jiang

suSha

ngha

iChon

gqing

Tianjin

Shanx

iSha

ndon

gGua

ngxi

Ningxia

Provinces

3

CO2 emission, mt-CO2

400500600

2

200300400

Mt-C

O2

0100

ong gsu hai

ing njin nxi

ong gxi

xia

Guang

don

Jiang

sSha

ngha

Chongq

in

Tianj

Shanx

Shand

ong

Guang

xNingx

i

P iProvinces

4

CO2 emission per capita, t-CO2

15

20

5

10

15

t-CO

2

0

5

g u ai g in xi g xi a

Guang

dong

Jiang

suSha

ngha

iChon

gqing

Tianjin

Shanx

iSha

ndon

gGua

ngxi

Ningxia

Provinces

5

Tire 1 indicators for LCE

Classification Indicators Note

Tire 1 indicators for LCE

Emissionindicators

GHG emissions Setting up emissiontarget

GHG emission per GDPIntensity With similar targetGHG emission per GDPIntensityindicators

With similar targetas energy intensitytarget in China ’ s

GHG emission per capitaShare of investment onLCE

11th Five PlanFinancialindicators

Government inputtogether with otherLCE

Total investment on LCEGHG Emission of sectors

indicators together with otherinvestment

Sector indicatorsGHG emission perGHG Emission per outputInvolvement from publicBehavior

6

Involvement from publicGovernment effort

Behaviorindicators

Tire 2 indicators for LCEClassification Indicators Note

Share of public transportNon‐mobility friendly transport Share of road with

Transportindicators y y p

nice bicycle lane,pedestrian side

Low carbon life style: Low carbona ai

Household Share of familye i te a Locampaign

Share of renewable energyShare of energy saving buildingShare of buildings with solar

register as Lowcarbon life style

Building

Share of high efficiency lightingShare of renewable energy intotal energyShare of renewable energy in

Low carbontechnologies

Share of renewable energy inpower generationShare of advanced technologiesin major industryOther technologiesEmission/energy use perEmission/energy use per outputTechnology penetration rate

Industry Sector

7

Technology penetration rateRate of recycleInvestment on energyefficiency/emission reduction

Energy intensity targetEnergy intensity target

ReductionIntensity tce/10000yuan Reduction2005 2010 %

Guangdong 0.79 0.66 16

Intensity, tce/10000yuan

Jiangsu 0.92 0.74 20Shanghai 0.88 0.7 20Chongqing 1.42 1.14 20gq gTianjin 1.11 0.89 20Shanxi 2.95 2.21 25Sh d 1 28 1 22Shandong 1.28 1 22Guangxi 1.22 1.04 15Ningxia 4.14 3.31 20

8

北京

50

60

Energy Use in Beijing

20

30

40

50

Mtce

0

10

20

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20051996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Electricity3%

Energy Mix in Beijing, 2005

Primaryenergy mix in Beijing in 2005Coal21%

Oil4%N.Gas

N.Gas9%

Electricity10%

Primary energy mix in Beijing in 2005

4%0%

Heat72%

Coal47%

OilOil34%

Framework of IPAC

E i t i d t

IPAC-SGM

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentEconomic impactMedium/long-term analysis

IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL

Environment industryPollutant emissionMedium/long-term analys

IPAC-EmissionIPAC-TIMER

Medium/long term analysis

Energy demand and supplFull range emissionPrice resource technolog

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investment IPAC EmissionIPAC TIMER Price, resource, technolog

Medium-long term analysisEconomic impact

Medium/long-term analysis

IPAC/Tech

Medium/short term

Technology developmentEnvironment impactTechnology policy

IPAC-AIM/techIPAC/AIM-LocalanalysisTechnology assessmentDetailed technology Region analysis

Medium/short analysis gyflowMedium/short analysis

Energy demand and supplyTechnology policy AIM-air IPAC-health

ERI, ChinaERI, China

Population Scenario in Beijing

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030Total population mi l l i om 12.78 15.38 17.10 18. 1 18. 5Share of City 0.84 83.6% 87.0% 90.0% 93.0%City Population mi l l i om 10.69 12.86 14.88 16.26 17.22y p mi l l i omRural population 2.09 2.52 2.22 1.81 1.30Registed population 11.80 12.40 13 13.5City HH 3.91 4.88 5.72 6.38 6.89Rural HH 0.76 0.98 0.87 0.71 0.52Number of HH mi l l i om 278.62 4.51 4.79 5.10 5.40City HH mi l l i om 2.75 3.34 3.67 4.03 4.37Rural HH 1. 224 1.17 1.12 1.07 1.03City population 8.80 9.55 10.27 10.94Rural population 3.00 2.85 2.73 2.57Share of city in registed 0.75 0.77 0.79 0.81Person in HH city 2.73 2.63 2.60 2.55 2.5Person in HH rural 2.76 2.56 2. 55 2. 54 2. 5

GDP in Beijing

7000 

8000 

4000

5000 

6000 

n Yu

an

Tertiary

2000 

3000 

4000 

Billion Secondary

Primary

0 

1000 

2000 2005 2010 2020 20302000 2005 2010 2020 2030

GDP Per Capita in Beijing

50.0

60.0 

p j g

40.0 

50.0 

US$

20.0 

30.0 

1000

U

0.0 

10.0 

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

Parameter of Urban HouseholdS i U i t S i

2020 2030

Househol d, mi l l i on 4.03 4.37

Shar e of HH wi t h space heat i ng 100% 100%

I ndex of space heat i ng i nt ensi t y 1.35 1.5

Ser vi ce Uni t Ser vi ce

I ndex of space heat i ng i nt ensi t y,2000=1I ndex of space heat i ng t i me, 2000=1 1.33 1.36

Shar e of bui l di ng wi t h 50%ef f i ci ency st andar d

20% 45%

O hi f Ai C di t i 130 180Owner shi p of Ai r Condi t i oner 130 180

I ndex of Ai r condi t i oner i nt ensi t y,2000=1

1.3 1.4

I ndex of ai r condi t i onerut i l i zat i on t i me, 2000=1

1.6 1.8

100 120Owner shi p of Ref r i ger at or per 100HH 100 120

Aver age space of r ef r eger et or L 250 310

Ef f i ci ency of Ref r eger et or kWh/day 0.8 0.8

Owner shi p of washi ng machi ne per 100HH 100 100

t i mes t o use washi ng machi ne per 5.4 8t i mes t o use washi ng machi ne perweek

5.4 8

Owner shi p of TV per 100HH 180 220

Aver age Capaci t y of TV 320W 300W

Hour s per TV per day 3.5 3.2

Penet r at i on r at e of CFL 100% 100%

Li ght per HH 14 21

Owner shi p of Wat er heat er per 100HH 100% 100%

Owner shi p of Sol ar heat er per 100HH 18% 25%

O hi f El t i ki 100HH 130 140Owner shi p of El ect r i c cooki ng per 100HH 130 140

Hour s per day of el ect r i c cooki ng Mi nut es 12 30

Capaci t y of ot her el ect r i cappl i cance W

1500W 1800W

Hour s of ot her el ect r i c appl i ance Mi nut es 50 80

2050年的低碳住宅舒适和节能

太阳能利用

光伏电池 生态生活教育

(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池，转换效率接近30% 屋顶植被

减少10-20% 能源需求

高效照明【如 LED照明】

转换效率接近30%

太阳热利用

屋顶植被

能源检测系统

普及率: 20-60%（目前 6%）

减少50%照明需求，普及率 100%

能源检测系统（家用电器)

减少 60% 采暖需求,普及率70%

超高效空调

高效绝热

COP =8, 普及率 100%

超高效空调

热泵采暖燃料电池

普及率 0-20%COP＝5普及率 30-70%

普及率 0 20%

待机电源耗电

降低1/3向公众提供经济和环境

降低1/3 ，普及率100%

5

高效家用电器减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式

信息促使大家成为低碳消费

- “领跑者项目已经实现

日本领跑者项目: 提高能源效率领跑者项目已经实现-刺激竞争和革新,-促进现有节能技术普及增加经济竞争力-增加经济竞争力

-创造了“双赢”局面，进入良性循环.

651.3 941.6 331.5Overall electricity consumption per

refrigerator (kWh)651.3 941.6 331.5

Overall electricity consumption per

refrigerator (kWh)

图 冰箱效率

Annual electricity consumption

per volume (kWh/L)

refrigerator (kWh)

Annual electricity consumption

per volume (kWh/L)

refrigerator (kWh)

p ( )

Internal cubic volume (L)

p ( )

Internal cubic volume (L)

(Source) JEMA (2002)1981 1991 20011981 1991 2001

Identify efficiency promised technologies: fully used by 2020

Sector Technologies Steel Industry Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen

furnace ,etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous casting himachine, TRT

Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery , DC-electric arc furnace

Chemical Industry Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving

Paper Making Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black liquor recovery system, Continuous distillation system

Textile Co-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing and Dyeing

Non-ferrous metal Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead and , y , Qzinc production

Building Materials dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Electric power generator with residue heat, Colburn process, Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln

Machinery High speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation FurnaceFurnace

Residential Cooking by gas, Centralized Space Heating System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting

Service Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient LightingHigh Efficient Lighting

Transport Diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, Electric Car, Natural Gas Car, Electric Railway Locomotives

Common Use Technology

High Efficiency Boiler, FCB Technology, High Efficiency Electric Motor S d Adj t bl M t C t if l El t i F E S iSpeed Adjustable Motor, Centrifugal Electric Fun, Energy Saving Lighting

Unit energy use for major industrial products, Policy scenariosBy 2030， best efficiency in the world

Uni t 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050St eel Kgce/t 760 650 564 554 545C Kgce/t 132 101 86 81 77Cement Kgce/t 132 101 86 81 77

Gl assKgce/WeightCases 24 18 14. 5 13. 8 13. 1

B i k Kgce/万块 685 466 433 421 408Br i ck Kgce/万块 685 466 433 421 408Ammoni a Kgce/t 1645 1328 1189 1141 1096Et hyl ene Kgce/t 1092 796 713 693 672S d A h Kgce/t 340 310 290 284 279Soda Ash Kgce/t 340 310 290 284 279Casut i c Kgce/t 1410 990 890 868 851Cal ci um car bi de Kgce/t 1482 1304 1215 1201 1193C Kgce/t 1273 1063 931 877 827Copper Kgce/t 1273 1063 931 877 827Al umi num kWh/t 14320 12870 12170 11923 11877Paper Kgce/t 1047 840 761 721 686El t i i t f i l f l Gce/kWh 350 305 287 274 264El ect r i ci t y f ossi l f uel Gce/kWh 350 305 287 274 264

Car Ownership

US600

CanadaItaly

Sweden500 明显的左

移效应

FranceUK

Spain

Sweden

400 北京2020

台湾

Spain300

Beijing

Greece200中国2030汇率法

中国2030PPP

法

j g2007

杭州2007

东营2005

India 韩国

100法

新加坡香港

上海2007

00 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

GDP per Capita (1997 $ PPP)Source: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum

Strategies and Environmental ImpactStrategies and Environmental Impactg pg pEnvironmental burden per capita（i.e. CO2　emissionEnvironmental burden per capita（i.e. CO2　emissionAir pollution emission, PM, NOx, CO ）Air pollution emission, PM, NOx, CO ）

Enhancing Public Transport ShareReducing Emissions

from Vehicles

Share of public Share of public Reducing Transport

Need（Trip frequency） Share of public transport

Share of public transport

Need（Trip frequency）

GoalGoal

PopulationD it

PopulationD it

Reducing Transport N d (T i l th) Density

(Indicator for Land Use)Density

(Indicator for Land Use)Need (Trip length)

SPO Applied GovernmentPromotion

TechnologyProgress

Clean Future

2000:56:00

2008: 3002020: 1000

Same SameRail-based mass rapidtransit, MRT, km

Scenario for Beijing2000: 3680 2020:10000

2000: 3680 2000: 3680

2020: 12000 2020: 12000

2005: EURO III 2005: EURO III

Promotion of AlternativeFuel Vehicles: numberof Clean fuel bus

Vehicle emissionstandard and

2007: EURO IIIThree Scenarios:

2010: EURO IV 2010: EURO IV

Parking policy Increase Increase

Bus lane Bus laneBetter interchange Better interchange

Improved bus routes andservices

standard andInspection/Maintenance• Government

promotion(BaU)• Technology

Intelligent TransportSystem (ITS)

Finish by 2006 Finish by 2006

Promotion of AlternativeFuel Vehicles

2007: E15%

2005:Hybrid car 2005:Hybrid carPromotion of High

Technology Progress(TG)

• Clean future(CF)2005:Hybrid car 2005:Hybrid car

2005: new diesel car 2005: new diesel car

2013: fuel cell car 2013: fuel cell car

Promotion of HighEfficiency Vehicles

Mini Car : Incentivepolicies

Mini Car : Incentivepolicies

Promotion of HighEfficiency Vehicles

Public interchangeBicyclePublic transportEnergy saving driving

Improved bus routes andservices

Public interchange

Public awareness raisingon environmentally friendlydrivingInformation Technologybased communication andservices to reducetransportation need

Tele-conference, on-line shopping, nearbyservice

Promotion of special adopted adoptedlanes for walking andcycling

Vehicle fuel standard adopted adopted

Greening fuel tax Fossil fuel based taxby 2006

Select of LPS

Base one data survey, 480 boilers with capacity between 10t/h - 670t/h；in which 112 for hot water, 360 for heating

不同热力区段的LPS分布

5% 5%16% 104

120

分区域LPS个数Distribution of LPS with Capacity Distribution of LPS by county

5%16%

53

104

82

60

80

100

74%

53

32

11 6

32 35 3827 24

13 13 100

20

40

220~670 65~220 20~65 10~200 海

淀

朝阳

石景

山

丰台

通州

门头

沟

昌平

房山

顺义

密云

怀柔

*

延庆

大兴

平谷

Model ResultsCO2 Emission, t-C

NOx Emission t-NOx

Coal Demand, tce

NOx Emission, t NOx

SO2 Emission, t-SO2

Final energy use in Beijing

70

80

90

40

50

60

Mtce BaU

Policy

10

20

30

40M Policy

Low Carbon

0

10

2005 2010 2020 2030

60

CO2 Emission in Beijing

50

60

30

40

Mt‐C BaU

Policy

10

20y

Low Carbon

0

2005 2010 2020 2030

CO2 Emi ssi on f r om Ener gy Act i vi t i es i n Chi na,I PAC Resul t s

4000 D i

300035004000 Domestic

Willing

Low carbon tech

150020002500

Mt-C

Low carbon tech and change of consumption

0500

10001500

Demonstrated by Developed

Countries 70% to 80% emission0

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050YearBasel i ne Low Ener gy Pol i cy

80% emission reduction?

Basel i ne Low Ener gy Pol i cyLCS Gl obal 50% Pr oposal

29Chinese Manufactured green cars, picture from 2008 Beijing Automobile Exhibition

斯德歌尔摩：在欧洲许多城市，自行车、步行在逐渐形成主要交通方式通方式

城市发展的理念：道路

R t t dRecent study

• LCS China• Global and China Mitigation Scenarios• IPCC New Emission ScenarioIPCC New Emission Scenario• Low carbon scenarios for selected cities and provinces: Guangdong,

Hongkong, Shijiazhuang, Baoding, Shanghai, Beijing, Jilin city, Jilin ProvinceProvince

• 2050 emission reduction target• Detailed road map for policy options

R d f h l i• Road map for technology options• Post-Kyoto Commitment• Sector based approach: cement, power generation, transport• CCS in China: end use sector and province study• MRV application in China