M. Schaap and many others An overview of European initiatives relevant for FAIRMODE

M. Schaap and many others

An overview of European initiatives relevant for FAIRMODE

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE2

Goal:

• To provide an overview of relevant ongoing initiatives in Europe relevant to FAIRMODE

• Focus on:• Objectives• Modelling activities


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

MACC

MEGAPOLI, CityZen

COST 728 & 732

COST ES0602 (Chemical Weather)

PASODOBLE

PROMOTE-2

GEMS

Time scales of some

relevant projects

and activities

EURODELTA

AQMEII


MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate

implementing the core monitoring and forecasting services


The underlying computational approach

Input dataWeather,constituents, emissions,land and ocean conditionsMod

el


Data assimilation

Input data

Model



Forecast

Model A

Model G

Model BModel C

Model D

Model E

Data assimilation

Input data

Model



Overall service structure (from MACC viewpoint)

Feedback


PASODOBLE - Goals

Develop and demonstrate user-driven downstream information services for the

regional and local air quality sector by combining space-based data, in-situ data

and models in 4 service lines:

• Health community support

for people at risk, hospitals, pharmacies and doctors

• Public forecasting and assessment support

for agencies, tourist industries and sport event organizers

• Compliance monitoring support

on particulate matter for regional environmental agencies

• Local forecast model evaluation support

for local authorities and city bodies


Interface to Core and Inputs

Interface to Users

Qualit

y M

anagem

ent

Mark

eti

ng a

nd

Busi

ness

Pla

nnin

g

GMES Core Services Other Inputs

Users and Market

User Needs

PASODOBLE - ConceptU

ser

feedb

ack

cycl

e

Mark

eti

ng c

ycl

e

Health Community Support

Public Forecasting Support

Compliance Monitoring Sup.

Local Model Evaluation Sup.

Air Quality Downstream Service Cluster1

2


PASODOBLE users*

Map of Europe showing the regions and cities covered by PASODOBLE Downstream Services for Committed Users

*at time of proposal preperation


12

a forum for benchmarking approaches and practices in data exchange and multi-model capabilities for chemical weather forecasting

Provide an easy interface to a wide variety of web-based air quality forecasting systems in Europe By selecting a point on the map, he or she will automatically receive

a list of the AQ modelling systems the domain, the research group of

each model a description of the service etc.

COST 0602

A screenshot of the portal for web-based air quality forecasting systems in Europe.

http://www.chemicalweather.eu/Domains

Under construction!


Figure: Illustration of some of the services available on the front page of the portal.

http://www. chemicalweather.eu/Domains

Please add your own forecasting service !

An overview paper on current chemical weather forecast systems is almost finished


Connections between Megacities, Air Quality and Climate

• Some links shown have already been considered by previous studies and are reasonably well-understood.

• However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing.

• Understanding and quantifying these missing links will be the focus of MEGAPOLI.


The CityZen project (2008-2011)

• Effect of Megacities on different spatial scales

• model studies and analyses of long-term observations

• development of emission scenarios

• Climate-chemistry coupling in and around Megacities

• Coordinated by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, involving 16 partners from 11 countries and 3 continents

https://wiki.met.no/cityzen/start


Objectives of Cityzen & Megapoli

• Quantify and understand current air pollution in and around selected megacities

• Development of tools to estimate interactions between different spatial scales

• Estimate how megacities influence air quality and climate, locally and globally

• Estimate how megacities are responding to climate change• Estimate the impact of future emission change, including

mitigation options• Provide technical underpinning of policy work


European scale top-down Urban scale bottom up

Road TransportTotal

Local Megacity Emission inventories for Paris (Airparif), London, Rhine-Ruhr, and Po Valley as well as global ( EGDAR team, JRC)

Domain of selected 1st level Megacities

London Rhine-Ruhr

Paris

Po Valley

Emissions

NRW – Rhine-Ruhr


Paris

Rhine-Ruhr

Po Valley

LondonMoscow

Istanbul

St-Petersburg


Paris

Nord Rhein Westphalia

Po Valley

London

Istanbul

Athens


Transport(D)

Transport(D)

HealthImpact

(I)

HealthImpact

(I)

Measures(R)

Measures(R)

ExposureExposure

Emissions(P)

Emissions(P)

AQ(S)

AQ(S)

Transport Integrated

Assessment Cycle

Emission models:-road traffic;-shipping;-aviation;

Dispersion models-regional;- point;- line;- street canyon;

Exposure model

ESCAPECohort studies

EU transport policyCities policy

EU measuresCities measures

Transphorm


EURODELTA

• To benchmark the EMEP model

• Do regional air quality models produce a consistent response to emission changes ?

• What is the range of modelled responses to emission changes ? • What are confidence limits for the modelling used in policy ? • Is a sectoral approach beneficial within IAM?


The JRC EURODELTA tool


Different models generally agree in their responses to emission reductions – absolute variability up to 50%

-0,12

-0,1

-0,08

-0,06

-0,04

-0,02

0

0,02

NOx VOC SOx NH3

Rel

ativ

e ch

ange

to S

IA

50 % reduction of

-0,12

-0,1

-0,08

-0,06

-0,04

-0,02

0

0,02

NOx VOC SOx NH3

Rel

ativ

e ch

ange

to S

IA

50 % reduction of

-0,12

-0,1

-0,08

-0,06

-0,04

-0,02

0

0,02

NOx VOC SOx NH3

Rel

ativ

e ch

ange

to S

IA

50 % reduction of

-0,12

-0,1

-0,08

-0,06

-0,04

-0,02

0

0,02

NOx VOC SOx NH3

Rel

ativ

e ch

ange

to S

IA

50 % reduction of

-0,12

-0,1

-0,08

-0,06

-0,04

-0,02

0

0,02

NOx VOC SOx NH3

Rel

ativ

e ch

ange

to S

IA

50 % reduction of

All models agree better in a relative sense than in an absolute sense:

Germany, after 2020

SO4NO3NH4


COST 728

• to develop advanced conceptual and computational frameworks to enhance significantly European capabilities in mesoscale meteorological modelling for air pollution and dispersion applications

Case study Stern et al. (2008)

Ongoing activities include an

investigation to the

differences in meteorological

input on the model results by

using independent

meteorological tower

observations



COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of Microscale Meteorological Models

Problem statement:

The main objective of the Action was to improve and assure the quality of micro-scale meteorological models that are applied for predicting flow and transport processes in urban or industrial environments.


• Harmonised European views in the field of model evaluation were established.

• Background and Justification Document to Support the Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol

• Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol Document

• Best Practice Guideline for the CFD simulation of Flows in the Urban Environment

• Model Evaluation Case Studies: Approach and Results

COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of Microscale Meteorological Models


Strengths:

Unique opportunity to combine knowledge available in the COST Countries Action was sufficiently focused Subject of the Action was timely Discussions within the group were controversial but fair The group was able to reach consensus

Weaknesses:

National delegates not always qualified/motivated/leadingthe field

Additional support from EU / ESF had been requested but was refused. The workload for the active participants was finally overwhelming

COST 732 Strengths and weaknesses


Air Quality Model International Initiative (AQMEII)

• Necessity was recognized to bridge between North American and European regional scale model evaluation communities & practices

• 2008 first workshop organized at TNO and the constitution of the Steering Committee

• May 2009: JRC-IES organizes the Stresa workshop. In depth analysis of the four evaluation streams defined by AQMEII and starting the definition of the a the first activity involving the two communities

• Activity supported by JRC-IES, US-EPA, Environment Canada, DG-RTD and DG-ENV


Dynamic Evaluation

Can the model capture changes related to meteorological events or variations?

Can the model capture changes related to emission reductions?

Model-predicted concentration and deposition

Model Inputs: meteorology and emissionsChemical transformation: gas, aerosol, cloudsTransport: advection and diffusionRemoval: dry and wet deposition

Diagnostic Evaluation

Are model errors or biases caused by model inputs or by modeled processes?

Can we identify the specific modeled process(es) responsible?

Are we getting the right answers?

Probabilistic Evaluation

What is our confidence in the model-predicted values?

How do observed concentrations compare within an uncertainty range of model predictions?

Operational Evaluation

How do the model predicted concentrations compare to observed concentration data?

What are the overall temporal or spatial prediction errors or biases?

Are we getting the right answers for the right (or wrong) reasons?

Can we capture the observed changes in air quality?

What is our confidence in the

model predictions?

Can we identify needed improvements for modeled processes or inputs?

4 model evaluation types


First phase (2010) : focus operational, diagnostic and probabilistic evaluation

Time Line for cases for the year 2006

Invitation to participation including overall scope of the activity and preliminary information on time windows in focus and motivation

July 2009 X

Distribution of refined specification and commitment by groups to take part to the activity

November 2009 X

Official start of the exerciseDistribution of the information and specification on

input data, requested output, etc

End January , 2010

Data submission NA case: End of MayEU case: End of June

Discussion on the results and future steps at AQMEII workshop: Probably within ITM 2010, Turin

End-September, 2010

Participation is opened: URL: http://aqmeii.jrc.ec.europa.eu


Overview of AQD applications & scale in on-going projects

Applications for the AQD Local-Hot spot (dx ~ m)

Urban/Agglom(dx ~ 1- 5 km)

Regional (dx ~ 10 – 50 km)

Compliance / Assessment

Data Assimilation

Fusion

Mitigation & Planning

Emission scenarios

Source Apportionment

Public information

AQ near real time forecast

EURODELTA

MACC

AQMEII

PASODOBLE

MEGAPOLI

MACC

MEGAPOLICITYZEN

MEGAPOLI

EURODELTACITYZEN

EC4MACS

PASODOBLE

PASODOBLE

COST 602 Chemical Weather

TRANSPHORM

TRANSPHORM

COST 602

TRANSPHORM


EC4MACS

Types of Evaluation

Emissions

Dynamic -Response to ΔMeteo

Operational

Routine statistics by

one-to-one pairing

Probabilistic“Ensembles”

Diagnostic “process impact – why?”

Regional (dx ~ 10 – 50 km)

Urban/Agglom(dx ~ 1- 5 km)

Local-Hot spot (dx ~ m)

Type of Evaluation

MEGAPOLI

EURODELTA

MACC

AQMEII

PASODOBLE

MEGAPOLI

MACC

MEGAPOLICITYZEN

EURODELTACITYZEN

COST Chemical Weather

TRANSPHORM

CITYZEN

EURODELTA

EURODELTA

AQMEII

CITYZEN

COST 728

AQMEII

COST 602


Conclusions

• There is a large experience on the regional scale, followed by the hotspot scale.

• Model evaluation exercises and comparisons on the city scale have attracted less attention

• A large experience is present on model evaluation for • Compliance / Assessment• Source Apportionment (Natural components)• Public information, i.e. forecasting

• Limited experience is present on model evaluation for • Mitigation & Planning

• Many initiatives were not “open” and not continuous, FAIRMODE should be

• FAIRMODE can draw from a large pool of expertise


Other relevant projects

• FP6-Air4EU: Review of best practices on all scales• Monitoring• Modelling• Data assimilation

• CityDelta• EC4MACS• FP6-GEOMON• FP7-ENERGEO

• And probably many more …

Documents

M. Schaap and many others An overview of European initiatives relevant for FAIRMODE