Macroeconomic policy 1992-onwards

Macroeconomic policy 1992-onwardsNature and causes of inflation in 1992-1995. Cost-push versus demand pull- inflationDemonetization of the economy, barter, non-payments, money substitutesExchange rate based and money based stabilization Currency crisis in 1998Alternative explanations of the crisisMacroeconomic policy after the 1998 crisis

Inflation in Russia 1990-2005

Chart2

15

160

2510

840

215

131

21.8

11

84.4

36.5

20.2

18.6

15.1

12

11.7

10.9

2510

Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)

Sheet1

CPIDec. to Dec., % increase

199015

1991160

19922510

1993840

1994215

1995131

199621.8

199711

199884.4

199936.5

200020.2

200118.6

200215.1

200312

200411.7

200510.9

CPI, monthly rates

Jan-9517.8

Feb-9511

Mar-958.9

Apr-958.5

May-957.9

Jun-956.7

Jul-955.4

Aug-954.6

Sep-954.5

Oct-954.7

Nov-954.5

Dec-953.2

Jan-964.1

Feb-962.8

Mar-962.8

Apr-962.2

May-961.6

Jun-961.2

Jul-960.8

Aug-96-0.3

Sep-960.3

Oct-961.2

Nov-961.9

Dec-961.4

Jan-972.3

Feb-971.6

Mar-971.4

Apr-970.9

May-970.9

Jun-971.1

Jul-970.9

Aug-97-0.1

Sep-97-0.4

Oct-970.2

Nov-970.7

Dec-970.9

Jan-981.5

Feb-980.9

Mar-980.7

Apr-980.4

May-980.5

Jun-980.1

Jul-980.1

Aug-983.7

Sep-9838.4

Oct-98

Nov-98

Dec-98

GDP growth rates

1990-3

1991-5

1992-14.5

1993-8.7

1994-12.7

1995-4.1

1996-3.4

19970.9

1998-4.9

19995.4

20008.3

20015

20024.3

20037.3

20047

ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP

1990378.8

199120.8

19921.9107.785.4

199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5

199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1

199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3

199690.567.423.112.1-8.111.2-7.3125429.2

199788.971.717.32.9-7.312.9-7.5135447

1998 (1st half)72.5714.3-12-5.311.2-7159.6450

1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6

1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6

1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7

1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5

1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2

1998/211.2

1998/38.5

Gov revExpDef

199244.265.8-21.6GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR

199336.143.3-7.20.2

199434.645-10.410.6

199532.237.7-5.576.657.79435.7

199626.135-8.9237.158.40775.74

199727.936.3-8.4384.90.374136

199824.530.4-5.9436138

GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP

19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.7

19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.81585

199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2

199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586

July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8

Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %

CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP

Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689

Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454

Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65

Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346

Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--

Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484

China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412

Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081

Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89

Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353

Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308

Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845

Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761

Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754

Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024

Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779

Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805

Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972

Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477

Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508

Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562

Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963

Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558

Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033

Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31

Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007

Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198

Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34


Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698

Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916

Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292

Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792

Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926

Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311


Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828

Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213

Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84

Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048


India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027

Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846

Sheet1

17.8

11

8.9

8.5

7.9

6.7

5.4

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.5

3.2

4.1

2.8

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.2

0.8

-0.3

0.3

1.2

1.9

1.4

2.3

1.6

1.4

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.9

-0.1

-0.4

0.2

0.7

0.9

1.5

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.1

3.7

38.4

36069

36100

36130

Monthly inflation

Sheet2

2510

Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)

Sheet3

9.52.1-5.219935.85.8

21.110.4-4.7-0.444

17.54.5-6.7-7.914.414.4

23.112.1-7.3-8.111.211.2

17.32.9-7.5-7.312.912.9

4.3-12-7-5.311.211.2

&A

Page &P

Trade balance

Current account

Debt service

Errors and omissions

Foreign exchange reserves*

*Year end,excluding gold

Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars

44.434.9

69.648.5

81.564

90.567.4

88.971.7

72.571

Export

Import

Trade surplus

(1st half)

Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars

65.844.2

43.336.1

4534.6

37.732.2

3526.1

36.327.9

30.424.5

Revenues

Expenditure

Deficit

(1st half)

Exp

Gov rev

Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP

0.7357131161117.164286883944.5

2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8

7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4

9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732

12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5

Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks

Short-term debt held by CBR

External debt

CBR credits to the government

GKO-OFZ


Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP

-3-3

-5-5

-14.5-14.5

-8.7-8.7

-12.7-12.7

-4.1-4.1

-3.4-3.4

0.90.9

-4.9-4.9

5.45.4

8.38.3

55

4.34.3

7.37.3

20047

Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in Russia, %, 1990-2004

4.21991

15.31.95

63.65.8

59.76.5

82.417.2

100.115.3

104.417.8

91.612.2

64.912.5

71.528

7534.5

8547.8

9576.9

100121.6

RER

FOREX

Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%

Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%, and gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $

-3-3

-5-5

-14.5-14.5

-8.7-8.7

-12.7-12.7

-4.1-4.1

-3.4-3.4

0.90.9

-4.9-4.9

5.45.4

8.38.3

55

4.34.3

7.37.3

20047

. 1. , %, 1990-2004

Inflation in 1992-1995Inflation as high as several hundred/thousand percent a year in most transition economiesInflation:Cost-push: caused by price rigidity, monopolization, costs growthDemand-pull: caused by money supply growth; MV=PY, if M, then P (monetary theory of inflation)In the beginning of 1990s many Russian economists believed that inflation in Russia was cost-push in nature, because of rigid prices (lack of competition, capital and labor cannot move freely between sectors)

Long term relationship between inflation and growth

Chart1

2.6

1.5

1.4

0.4

0.3

-0.7

-3.3

16

54

25

17

10

13

5

countries

Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP,%

Inflation

GDP per capita growth rates

Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP in 1975-95,%, in groups of countries with different inflation rates

Sheet1

InflationAverage annual growth rates of per capita GDP,%Average annual inflation, %

< 5%2.63.5

5-10%1.57.2

10-15%1.411.7

15-25%0.419.3

25-40%0.329.5

40-100%-0.753.8

>100%-3.3243.5

Sheet1

16

54

25

17

10

13

5

countries

Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP,%

Inflation

GDP per capita growth rates

Average annual growth rates of per capita GDP in 1975-95,%, in groups of countries with different inflation rates

Sheet2

Sheet3

Negative relationship between growth and inflation for the long term

Chart2

-3-315

-5-5160

-14.5-14.52510

-8.7-8.7840

-12.7-12.7215

-4.1-4.1131

-3.4-3.421.8

0.90.911

-4.9-4.984.4

5.45.436.5

8.38.320.2

5518.6

4.34.315.1

7.37.312

7.27.211.7

6.4200510.9

GDP growth rates

Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)

CPI

GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005

Sheet1

CPIDec. to Dec., % increase

199015

1991160

19922510

1993840

1994215

1995131

199621.8

199711

199884.4

199936.5

200020.2

200118.6

200215.1

200312

200411.7

200510.9

CPI, monthly rates

Jan-9517.8

Feb-9511

Mar-958.9

Apr-958.5

May-957.9

Jun-956.7

Jul-955.4

Aug-954.6

Sep-954.5

Oct-954.7

Nov-954.5

Dec-953.2

Jan-964.1

Feb-962.8

Mar-962.8

Apr-962.2

May-961.6

Jun-961.2

Jul-960.8

Aug-96-0.3

Sep-960.3

Oct-961.2

Nov-961.9

Dec-961.4

Jan-972.3

Feb-971.6

Mar-971.4

Apr-970.9

May-970.9

Jun-971.1

Jul-970.9

Aug-97-0.1

Sep-97-0.4

Oct-970.2

Nov-970.7

Dec-970.9

Jan-981.5

Feb-980.9

Mar-980.7

Apr-980.4

May-980.5

Jun-980.1

Jul-980.1

Aug-983.7

Sep-9838.4

Oct-98

Nov-98

Dec-98

GDP growth rates

1990-3

1991-5

1992-14.5

1993-8.7

1994-12.7

1995-4.1

1996-3.4

19970.9

1998-4.9

19995.4

20008.3

20015

20024.3

20037.3

20047.2

20056.4


1990378.8

199120.8

19921.9107.785.4

199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5

199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1

199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3

199690.567.423.112.1-8.111.2-7.3125429.2

199788.971.717.32.9-7.312.9-7.5135447

1998 (1st half)72.5714.3-12-5.311.2-7159.6450

1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6

1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6

1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7

1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5

1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2

1998/211.2

1998/38.5

Gov revExpDef

199244.265.8-21.6GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR

199336.143.3-7.20.2

199434.645-10.410.6

199532.237.7-5.576.657.79435.7

199626.135-8.9237.158.40775.74

199727.936.3-8.4384.90.374136

199824.530.4-5.9436138

GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP

19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.7

19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.81585

199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2

199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586

July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8



Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689

Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454

Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65

Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346


Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484

China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412

Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081

Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89

Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353

Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308

Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845

Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761

Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754

Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024

Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779

Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805

Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972

Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477

Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508

Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562

Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963

Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558

Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033

Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31

Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007

Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198

Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34


Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698

Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916

Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292

Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792

Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926

Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311


Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828

Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213

Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84

Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048


India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027

Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846

Sheet1

17.8

11

8.9

8.5

7.9

6.7

5.4

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.5

3.2

4.1

2.8

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.2

0.8

-0.3

0.3

1.2

1.9

1.4

2.3

1.6

1.4

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.9

-0.1

-0.4

0.2

0.7

0.9

1.5

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.1

3.7

38.4

36069

36100

36130

Monthly inflation

Sheet2

15

160

2510

840

215

131

21.8

11

84.4

36.5

20.2

18.6

15.1

12

11.7

10.9

2510

Figure 2. Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)

Sheet3

9.52.1-5.219935.85.8

21.110.4-4.7-0.444

17.54.5-6.7-7.914.414.4

23.112.1-7.3-8.111.211.2

17.32.9-7.5-7.312.912.9

4.3-12-7-5.311.211.2

&A

Page &P

Trade balance

Current account

Debt service



*Year end,excluding gold


44.434.9

69.648.5

81.564

90.567.4

88.971.7

72.571

Export

Import

Trade surplus

(1st half)


65.844.2

43.336.1

4534.6

37.732.2

3526.1

36.327.9

30.424.5

Revenues

Expenditure

Deficit

(1st half)

Exp

Gov rev


0.7357131161117.164286883944.5

2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8

7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4

9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732

12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5



External debt


GKO-OFZ



-3-3

-5-5

-14.5-14.5

-8.7-8.7

-12.7-12.7

-4.1-4.1

-3.4-3.4

0.90.9

-4.9-4.9

5.45.4

8.38.3

55

4.34.3

7.37.3

7.27.2

6.42005

Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in Russia, %, 1990-2004

4.21991

15.31.95

63.65.8

59.76.5

82.417.2

100.115.3

104.417.8

91.612.2

64.912.5

71.528

7534.5

8547.8

9576.9

100121.6

RER

FOREX

Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%

Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%, and gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $

. 1. , %, 1990-2004

GDP growth rates

Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)

CPI

GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005

Monetary expansion first (18 months) leads to the expansion of output, then - to the acceleration of inflation

Chart3

5.71

2.70

80

2.70.396039604

6.9-0.1972386588

-1.62.9644268775

5.62.6871401152

10.23.9252336449

7.35.5755395683

61.7035775128

5.7-0.5025125628

9.61.0101010101

10.92.1666666667

15.211.0929853181

12.64.845814978

8.55.4621848739

11.212.7490039841

10.78.7161366313

4.18.3423618635

2.75.1

10.69.5147478592

14.314.5091225022

13.519.6509863429

12.813.1896005073

10.55.9383753501

9.60.7403490217

8.8-2.3622047244

7.8-2.1505376344

7.10.9340659341

7.90

7.3-0.8

81.2

9.1

GDP growth

GDP deflator

GDP growth rates (lagged one year) and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year

Sheet1

GDP growthGDP deflator

GDP growthGDP deflator19711.83299389

19715.71.8329938919725.71

19722.711.8329938919732.70

1973801197480

19742.70019752.70.396039604

19756.90.396039604019766.9-0.1972386588

1976-1.6-0.19723865880.3960396041977-1.62.9644268775

19775.62.9644268775-0.197238658819785.62.6871401152

197810.22.68714011522.9644268775197910.23.9252336449

19797.33.92523364492.687140115219807.35.5755395683

198065.57553956833.9252336449198161.7035775128

19815.71.70357751285.575539568319825.7-0.5025125628

19829.6-0.50251256281.703577512819839.61.0101010101

198310.91.0101010101-0.5025125628198410.92.1666666667

198415.22.16666666671.0101010101198515.211.0929853181

198512.611.09298531812.1666666667198612.64.845814978

19868.54.84581497811.092985318119878.55.4621848739

198711.25.46218487394.845814978198811.212.7490039841

198810.712.74900398415.4621848739198910.78.7161366313

19894.18.716136631312.749003984119904.18.3423618635

19902.78.34236186358.716136631319912.75.1

199110.65.18.3423618635199210.69.5147478592

199214.39.51474785925.1199314.314.5091225022

199313.514.50912250229.5147478592199413.519.6509863429

199412.819.650986342914.5091225022199512.813.1896005073

199510.513.189600507319.6509863429199610.55.9383753501

19969.65.938375350113.189600507319979.60.7403490217

19978.80.74034902175.938375350119988.8-2.3622047244

19987.8-2.36220472440.740349021719997.8-2.1505376344

19997.1-2.1505376344-2.362204724420007.10.9340659341

20007.90.9340659341-2.150537634420017.90

20017.300.934065934120027.3-0.8

20028-0.80200381.2

20039.11.2-0.89.1

1.2

Sheet1

GDP growth

GDP deflator

GDP growth rates and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year

Sheet2

GDP growth

GDP deflator


Sheet3

GDP deflator

Growth

inflation

Inflation (GDP deflator) and growth rates in China in 1971-2003, %

Country or AreaPeriodGDP Index at current pricesGDP Index at constant pricesImplicit Price Deflator

Click here to chart table

Click here to chart table197012.325.149.1Infl

China

197113.226.5501.83299389

197213.727.250.51

197314.929.450.50

197415.230.250.50

197516.432.350.70.396039604

197616.131.850.6-0.1972386588

197717.533.552.12.9644268775

197819.83753.52.6871401152

19792239.755.63.9252336449

198024.74258.75.5755395683

198126.544.459.71.7035775128

198228.948.759.4-0.5025125628

198332.454601.0101010101

198438.162.261.32.1666666667

198547.77068.111.0929853181

198654.27671.44.845814978

198763.684.575.35.4621848739

198879.493.584.912.7490039841

198989.997.492.38.7161366313

19901001001008.3423618635

1991116.2110.6105.15.1

1992145.4126.3115.19.5147478592

1993189.1143.4131.814.5091225022

1994255.2161.8157.719.6509863429

1995319.2178.9178.513.1896005073

1996370.6196189.15.9383753501

1997406.5213.3190.50.7403490217

1998427.7230186-2.3622047244

1999448246.2182-2.1505376344

2000488.2265.7183.70.9340659341

2001523.7285.1183.70



China

Phillips curve - negative short term relationship between inflation and unemployment (positive - between inflation and growth)

Chart2

1.83299389

1

0

0

0.396039604

-0.1972386588

2.9644268775

2.6871401152

3.9252336449

5.5755395683

1.7035775128

-0.5025125628

1.0101010101

2.1666666667

11.0929853181

4.845814978

5.4621848739

12.7490039841

8.7161366313

8.3423618635

5.1

9.5147478592

14.5091225022

19.6509863429

13.1896005073

5.9383753501

0.7403490217

-2.3622047244

-2.1505376344

0.9340659341

0

-0.8

1.2

GDP deflator

Growth

inflation


Sheet1

GDP growthGDP deflator

GDP growthGDP deflator19711.83299389

19715.71.8329938919725.71

19722.711.8329938919732.70

1973801197480

19742.70019752.70.396039604

19756.90.396039604019766.9-0.1972386588

1976-1.6-0.19723865880.3960396041977-1.62.9644268775

19775.62.9644268775-0.197238658819785.62.6871401152

197810.22.68714011522.9644268775197910.23.9252336449

19797.33.92523364492.687140115219807.35.5755395683

198065.57553956833.9252336449198161.7035775128

19815.71.70357751285.575539568319825.7-0.5025125628

19829.6-0.50251256281.703577512819839.61.0101010101

198310.91.0101010101-0.5025125628198410.92.1666666667

198415.22.16666666671.0101010101198515.211.0929853181

198512.611.09298531812.1666666667198612.64.845814978

19868.54.84581497811.092985318119878.55.4621848739

198711.25.46218487394.845814978198811.212.7490039841

198810.712.74900398415.4621848739198910.78.7161366313

19894.18.716136631312.749003984119904.18.3423618635

19902.78.34236186358.716136631319912.75.1

199110.65.18.3423618635199210.69.5147478592

199214.39.51474785925.1199314.314.5091225022

199313.514.50912250229.5147478592199413.519.6509863429

199412.819.650986342914.5091225022199512.813.1896005073

199510.513.189600507319.6509863429199610.55.9383753501

19969.65.938375350113.189600507319979.60.7403490217

19978.80.74034902175.938375350119988.8-2.3622047244

19987.8-2.36220472440.740349021719997.8-2.1505376344

19997.1-2.1505376344-2.362204724420007.10.9340659341

20007.90.9340659341-2.150537634420017.90

20017.300.934065934120027.3-0.8

20028-0.80200381.2

20039.11.2-0.89.1

1.2

Sheet1

GDP growth

GDP deflator

GDP growth rates and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year

Sheet2

GDP growth

GDP deflator


Sheet3

GDP deflator

Growth

inflation


Country or AreaPeriodGDP Index at current pricesGDP Index at constant pricesImplicit Price Deflator


Click here to chart table197012.325.149.1Infl

China

197113.226.5501.83299389

197213.727.250.51

197314.929.450.50

197415.230.250.50

197516.432.350.70.396039604

197616.131.850.6-0.1972386588

197717.533.552.12.9644268775

197819.83753.52.6871401152

19792239.755.63.9252336449

198024.74258.75.5755395683

198126.544.459.71.7035775128

198228.948.759.4-0.5025125628

198332.454601.0101010101

198438.162.261.32.1666666667

198547.77068.111.0929853181

198654.27671.44.845814978

198763.684.575.35.4621848739

198879.493.584.912.7490039841

198989.997.492.38.7161366313

19901001001008.3423618635

1991116.2110.6105.15.1

1992145.4126.3115.19.5147478592

1993189.1143.4131.814.5091225022

1994255.2161.8157.719.6509863429

1995319.2178.9178.513.1896005073

1996370.6196189.15.9383753501

1997406.5213.3190.50.7403490217

1998427.7230186-2.3622047244

1999448246.2182-2.1505376344

2000488.2265.7183.70.9340659341

2001523.7285.1183.70



China

Chart4

12.614-7.1

15.6151.5

28.9261.1

17.223.7-0.4

15.120-5.9

14.122.31.1

1716.3-3.4

10.19.6-0.5

6.86-1.3

15.392.7

8160

59-0.9

*Lagged 4 months.

M3 (left scale)

Prices (left scale)*

Industrial output (right scale)*

Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %

Sheet1

CPIDec. to Dec., % increaseTrade debts to enterprisesTrade arrears to enterprisesArrears/debts ratio, %Trade arrears of enterprisesAll arrears of enterprises

1990156/1/9221212257.5471698113

19911607/1/9224415061.4754098361

199225108/1/9225115260.5577689243

19938409/1/9219512162.0512820513

199422010/1/921057268.5714285714

199513011/1/921567749.358974359

199621.812/1/921406546.4285714286

1997111/1/931446243.0555555556

19981002/1/931285442.1875

1999803/1/931134539.8230088496

CPI, monthly rates4/1/931254737.6

J-9517.85/1/931406042.8571428571

F-95116/1/931355742.2222222222

M-958.97/1/931315340.4580152672

A-958.58/1/931315541.9847328244

M-957.99/1/931395841.726618705

J-956.710/1/931446041.6666666667

J-955.411/1/931566742.9487179487

A-954.612/1/931607245

S-954.51/1/941939448.7046632124

O-954.72/1/942069948.0582524272

N-954.53/1/942001005093

D-953.24/1/9423211850.8620689655108

J-964.15/1/9424813052.4193548387147

F-962.86/1/9425313653.7549407115100144

M-962.87/1/9427514954.1818181818108164

A-962.28/1/9426614353.7593984962106160

M-961.69/1/9426215057.2519083969110166

J-961.210/1/9423414160.2564102564106163

J-960.811/1/9422113259.7285067873100157

A-96-0.312/1/949982128

S-960.31/1/959681131

O-961.22/1/959271129

N-961.93/1/957859111

D-961.44/1/958163119

J-972.35/1/958463126

F-971.66/1/957659117

M-971.47/1/959671142

A-970.98/1/958770137

M-970.99/1/959168144

J-971.110/1/958665138

J-970.911/1/959473156

A-97-0.112/1/958870148

S-97-0.41/1/96

O-970.22/1/96

N-970.73/1/96

D-970.94/1/96134157227

J-981.5

F-980.9

M-980.7

A-980.4

M-980.5M3 (left scale)Prices (left scale)*Industrial output (right scale)*

J-980.11Q199212.614.0-7.1

J-980.12Q199215.615.01.5

A-983.73Q199228.926.01.1

S-9838.44Q199217.223.7-0.4

O-984.51Q199315.120.0-5.9

N-985.72Q199314.122.31.1

D-9811.63Q199317.016.3-3.4

J-998.54Q199310.19.6-0.5

F-994.51Q19946.86.0-1.3

M-992.72Q199415.39.02.7

A-993.13Q19948.016.00.0

M-992.34Q19945.09.0-0.9

Sheet1

1

Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %

Sheet2

1

2510

Forecast

Figure 3. Annual (December-to-December) inflation rates in Russia

Sheet3


%

Fig. 4. Monthly inflation rates, %

2510

Forecast


*Lagged 4 months.

M3 (left scale)



Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %

Trade debts to enterprises

Trade arrears to enterprises

Arrears/debts ratio, %

Trade arrears of enterprises

All arrears of enterprises

%

Trade debts and trade arrears of industrial enterprises, as a % of monthly industrial output

1995=100%

1996.197

1996.296.5

1996.396.8

1996.496.8

1996.596.7

1996.695.2

1996.795.5

1996.894.8

1996.995.6

1996.1096.2

1996.1195.2

1996.1295.6

1997.197.1998586184

1997.298.0834936967

1997.397.2980402938

1997.498.2798570475

1997.596.9053135923

1997.697.7889486706

1997.798.5744020736

1997.897.7889486706

1997.997.887130346

1997.1098.672583749

1997.1199.6544005027

1997.12100.1453088796

1998.198.672583749

1998.299.4580371519

1998.398.3780387229

1998.499.0653104505

1998.594.8434984095

1998.695.3344067863

1998.789.2471429132

1998.886.4980560028

1998.983.650787417

1998.1087.6762361073

1998.1190.5235046931

1998.1293.5671366296

1999.193.7634999804

1999.295.7271334878

1999.399.7525821781

1999.4100.538035581

1999.5100.64

1999.6

99.07

Devaluation

1996.1 1996.2 1996.3 1996.4 1996.5 1996.6 1996.7 1996.8 1996.9 1996.10 1996.11 1996.12 1997.1 1997.2 1997.3 1997.4 1997.5 1997.6 1997.7 1997.8 1997.9 1997.10 1997.11 1997.12 1998.1 1998.2 1998.3 1998.4 1998.5 1998.6 1998.7 1998.8 1998.9 1998.10 1998.11 19

Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%

Inflation in Russia 1995-2000

Chart2

17.8

11

8.9

8.5

7.9

6.7

5.4

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.5

3.2

4.1

2.8

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.2

0.8

-0.3

0.3

1.2

1.9

1.4

2.3

1.6

1.4

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.9

-0.1

-0.4

0.2

0.7

0.9

1.5

0.9

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.1

3.7

38.4

4.5

5.7

11.6

8.4

4.1051660517

2.7913159061

3.0172413793

2.2426778243

1.8988377803

2.8112449799

1.171875

1.46566

1.36194

1.22149

1.24698

2.34406

1.04813

0.65309

0.83069

1.7411

2.56696

1.81356

0.96188


%


Sheet1

CPIDec. to Dec., % increaseTrade debts to enterprisesTrade arrears to enterprisesArrears/debts ratio, %Trade arrears of enterprisesAll arrears of enterprises

1990156/1/9221212257.5471698113

19911607/1/9224415061.4754098361

199225108/1/9225115260.5577689243

19938409/1/9219512162.0512820513

199422010/1/921057268.5714285714

199513011/1/921567749.358974359

199621.812/1/921406546.4285714286

1997111/1/931446243.0555555556

199884.42/1/931285442.1875

199936.53/1/931134539.8230088496

2000184/1/931254737.6

CPI, monthly rates5/1/931406042.8571428571

J-9517.86/1/931355742.2222222222

F-95117/1/931315340.4580152672

M-958.98/1/931315541.9847328244

A-958.59/1/931395841.726618705

M-957.910/1/931446041.6666666667

J-956.711/1/931566742.9487179487

J-955.412/1/931607245

A-954.61/1/941939448.7046632124

S-954.52/1/942069948.0582524272

O-954.73/1/942001005093

N-954.54/1/9423211850.8620689655108

D-953.25/1/9424813052.4193548387147

J-964.16/1/9425313653.7549407115100144

F-962.87/1/9427514954.1818181818108164

M-962.88/1/9426614353.7593984962106160

A-962.29/1/9426215057.2519083969110166

M-961.610/1/9423414160.2564102564106163

J-961.211/1/9422113259.7285067873100157

J-960.812/1/949982128

A-96-0.31/1/959681131

S-960.32/1/959271129

O-961.23/1/957859111

N-961.94/1/958163119

D-961.45/1/958463126

J-972.36/1/957659117

F-971.67/1/959671142

M-971.48/1/958770137

A-970.99/1/959168144

M-970.910/1/958665138

J-971.111/1/959473156

J-970.912/1/958870148

A-97-0.11/1/96

S-97-0.42/1/96

O-970.23/1/96

N-970.74/1/96134157227

D-970.9

J-981.5

F-980.9

M-980.7

A-980.4

M-980.5

J-980.1

J-980.1

A-983.7

S-9838.4

O-984.5

N-985.7

D-9811.6

J-998.4

F-994.1051660517

M-992.7913159061

A-993.0172413793

M-992.2426778243

J-981.8988377803

J-982.8112449799

A-991.171875

S-991.46566

O-991.36194M3 (left scale)Prices (left scale)*Industrial output (right scale)*

N-991.221491Q199212.614.0-7.1

D-991.246982Q199215.615.01.5

J-002.344063Q199228.926.01.1

F-001.04813

M-000.65309

A-000.83069

M-001.7411

J-002.56696

J-001.81356

A-000.96188

S-00

GDP growth rates

1990-3

1991-5

1992-14.5

1993-8.7

1994-12.74Q199217.223.7-0.4

1995-4.11Q199315.120.0-5.9

1996-4.92Q199314.122.31.1

19970.63Q199317.016.3-3.4

1998-54Q199310.19.6-0.5

19993.21Q19946.86.0-1.3

200072Q199415.39.02.7

3Q19948.016.00.0

4Q19945.09.0-0.9


1990378.8

199120.8

19921.9107.785.4

199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5

199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1

199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3

199690.567.423.112.1-8.411.2-7.3125429.2

199788.971.717.53.6-7.612.9-7.5135447

1998 (1st half)73.568.94.6-11.7-6.811.2-8.2159.6450

1998 (2nd half)7154171-77.8-6

1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6

1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6

1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7

1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5

1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2

1998/211.2

1998/38.5

Gov revExpDef

199244.265.8-21.6

199336.143.3-7.2

199434.645-10.4

199532.237.7-5.5

199626.135-8.9

199727.936.3-8.4

199824.530.4-5.9

GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR

GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP0.2

19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.710.6

19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.8158576.657.79435.7

199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2237.158.40775.74

199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586384.90.374136

July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8436138



Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689

Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454

Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65

Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346


Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484

China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412

Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081

Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89

Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353

Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308

Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845

Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761

Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754

Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024

Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779

Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805

Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972

Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477

Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508

Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562

Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963

Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558

Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033

Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31

Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007

Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198

Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34


Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698

Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916

Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292

Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792

Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926

Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311


Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828

Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213

Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84

Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048


India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027

Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846

Sheet1

1


Sheet2

1

2510

Forecast


Sheet3

1

Forecast

Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %

111111

&A

Page &P

Trade balance

Current account

Debt service



*End of period,excluding gold


11

Export

Import

Trade surplus


11

Revenues

Expenditure

Deficit

(1st half)

#REF!

#REF!


1111



External debt


#REF!

#REF!



%


2510

Forecast

Figure 3. Annual inflation rates in Russia (CPI, December-to-December increase)

Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %

&A

Page &P

Trade balance

Current account

Debt service



*End of period,excluding gold

*End of the period, excluding gold.

Trade balance


Export

Import

Trade surplus


65.844.2

43.336.1

4534.6

37.732.2

3526.1

36.327.9

30.424.5

Revenues

Expenditure

Deficit

(1st half)

Exp

Gov rev


0.7357131161117.164286883944.5

2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8

7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4

9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732

12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5



External debt




GKO held by CBR

Domestic nonGKO debt

External debt


000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

*Lagged 4 months.

M3 (left scale)



Fig. 2. Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

Trade debts to enterprises

Trade arrears to enterprises

Arrears/debts ratio, %

Trade arrears of enterprises

All arrears of enterprises

%

Fig. 3. Trade debts and trade arrears of industrial enterprises, as a % of monthly industrial output

Stock prices $ indices, Dec. 1993=100%

Czech RepublicHungaryPolandRussia

D-199268.24790

J-1993

F-1993

M-1993

A-1993

M-1993

J-1993

J-1993

A-1993

S-1993

O-1993

N-1993

D-1993100100100100

J-1994100100

F-1994117.2109

M-1994137.9144.1134.1

A-1994114.8126.994.7

M-1994102.4123.295.6

J-199496.4114.560.9

J-199494.1116.578.3

A-199498.5127.395.2

S-199494114.664.6

O-199489.4119.564.1

N-199480.5108.148.5

D-199472.3103.953.3313

J-199569.782.143.4

F-199567.184.545.7

M-199562.483.551.4

A-199561.287.268.1188.4

M-199559.983.653.5231.3

J-199556.593.762.4261.1

J-199558.693.361.3299.3

A-199560.593.161.8247.6

S-199565.8100.950.6255.1

O-199564.389.655.4215.6

N-199559.58955.3205.3

D-199573.289.653.8216

J-199662.599.661.7224.4

F-199679.2115.770201.5

M-199684.2137.477.6203.1

A-199686.9145.482.3247.6

M-199691.3160.680.9280

J-199690.7172.989.2501.2

J-199692.4165.881.6350.2

A-199697.3168.579.9439.4

S-199697.8188.193.3423.4

O-199694.3188.691.8403.4

N-199686.5190.984.9429.9

D-199686.6194.485459.2

J-199790.5209.287.4485.5

F-199793.3250.699.4803.6

M-199783.7226.988.9737.5

A-199779.8238.786.7697.4

M-199766.9254.982.1825.6

J-199769270.881.6919.3

J-199764.3296.872.91077.7

A-199768.4297.879.71300

S-199771.8307.286.71204

O-199775.4314.388.21303.7

N-199758.5268.569.8800.4

D-199759.2308.366.9990.5

J-199856.8283.267.7815.5

F-199862.2298.979.5761.5

M-199864.2307.988.6790.5

A-199859.9303.383.5643.4

M-199862.327382.1573.3

J-199854254.972.7375.1

J-199862.626982.5378.4

A-199858231.167.2159

S-199851.1147.856.557.1

O-199849.8145.349.943.2

N-199854.5208.760.248.5

D-19985321454.341.6

J-199953238.963.536.6

F-199944.820755.741.8

CzechHungPolRus

&A

Page &P

Fig. 10. Dollar stock prices indices, Dec. 1993 = 100%

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Russia

Price ratioPr ratio-foreCons pricesExch. rateCons pr-foreExch rate-foreExch rate corridor

12/199437.2100100

1/199538.1704347826118115

2/199538.3716535433131127

3/199538.0028776978142139

4/199539.5089655172154145

5/199543.7492957746167142

6/199551.3302325581178129

7/199555.2095238095187126123.3140.5

8/199557.8666666667196126123.3140.5

9/199559.578125205128123.3140.5

10/199562215129123.3140.5

11/199563.6091603053224131123.3140.5

12/199565.6636363636233132123.3140.5

1/199667.8410526316242.55133130.4147.6

2/199669.219761194249.34134130.4147.6

3/199670.6331555556256.33135130.4147.6

4/199670.618261.97138130.4147.6

5/199670.7225142857266.16140130.4147.6

6/199670.0686713287269.35143130.4147.6

7/199669.0493150685271146143.3160.5

8/199666.984717608271150.5

9/199666.2281967213271.5152.5

10/199666.213592233275154.5

11/199666.5559105431280156.5

12/199668.4532692551291158.14157.6174.8

1/199769.285298160

2/199769.5628482972302161.5

3/199770.063803681307163

4/199770.3170731707310164

5/199770.598540146312164.4

6/199771.4167679222316164.6316164.6

7/199771.486746988319166

8/199771.5128358209322167.5

9/199771.6485207101325.5169

10/199771.7818181818329170.5

11/199771.8046511628332172

12/199771.8270893372335173.5164.76181.96

PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio

Dec. 199410010037.2

Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5

Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8

Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429

Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818

Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079

Dec. 200015120537518077.5

1995=100%

1996.197

1996.296.5

1996.396.8

1996.496.8

1996.596.7

1996.695.2

1996.795.5

1996.894.8

1996.995.6

1996.1096.2

1996.1195.2

1996.1295.6

1997.197.1998586184

1997.298.0834936967

1997.397.2980402938

1997.498.2798570475

1997.596.9053135923

1997.697.7889486706

1997.798.5744020736

1997.897.7889486706

1997.997.887130346

1997.1098.672583749

1997.1199.6544005027

1997.12100.1453088796

1998.198.672583749

1998.299.4580371519

1998.398.3780387229

1998.499.0653104505

1998.594.8434984095

1998.695.3344067863

1998.789.2471429132

1998.886.4980560028

1998.983.650787417

1998.1087.6762361073

1998.1190.5235046931

1998.1293.5671366296

1999.193.7634999804

1999.295.7271334878

1999.399.7525821781

1999.497.061704211699.1

1999.599.6082272282101.7

1999.6101.5670910872103.7

1999.7103.0362389814105.2

1999.8104.4074436827106.6

1999.9104.9951028404107.2

1999.10100.0979431929102.2

1999.11103.5259549461105.7

1999.12103.4280117532105.6

2000.1105.582761998107.8

2000.2107.541625857109.8

2000.3106.4642507346108.7

2000.4102.3506366308104.5

2000.5109.3046033301111.6

2000.6110.2840352595112.6

2000.7111.361410382113.7

2000.8115.05695

2000.9112.5547

2000.10

2000.11

PolandChinaUSSR/Russia

19851989199519781985199419891996

"Ordinary government"15.113.215.48.99.78.222.316.4

Investment5.63.4314.97.52.121.87.7

Subsidies15.310.12.93.25.91.5

Defence31.81.84.72.21.28.12.8

Debt service50.50.51.12

Total3928.528.132.225.814.152.228.9

11111111

Consumer prices

Exchange rate

Exchange rate

corridor

Forecast (assuming

1% monthly inflation)

Ratio of Russian to US prices

Fig. . Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%, right scale) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars, left scale)

Fig. 4. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)

Proclaimed targets

Ratio of Russian to US prices,%

Exchange rate

Exchange rate

corridor

Exchange rate

Exchange rate

CPI

Fig. 6. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)

Devaluation

Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

&F

Page &P

POLAND

CHINA

USSR/ RUSSIA

"Ordinary government"

Investment

Subsidies

Defence

Debt service

Fig. 13. Government expenditure, % of GDP

Attempts to fight inflation in RussiaFirst half of 1992 (Gaidar). Growth of money supply was restricted; inflation fell to 10% a month in summer 1992; as a consequence, massive non-payments emergedFirst half of 1994 (Chernomyrdin). Tightening monetary policy allowed to bring down inflation to 5% a month in summer 1994; again, non-payments increasedmid 1995: exchange rate based stabilization; inflation brought down to 6% a year (July 1998 to July 1997); currency crisis in August 1998, acceleration of inflation1999 - onwards - money based stabilization

Why fight inflation?High inflation damages financial markets, as risk-free assets disappearEmpirical evidence: high inflation (more than 40% per year) is bad for growth (e.g. Michael Bruno and William Easterly)But if inflation rates are moderate, then attempts to reduce inflation may negatively affect the economy

DemonetizationWhen inflation is high, alternative costs of keeping money balances are high money demand is lowMoney velocity is highMonetization=1/money velocity. Monetization is lower whenever inflation is higherCagan effect - reduction of demand for real cash balances during hyperinflation

Chart3

48

10

63

61

83

23

43

12

18

25

23

11

26

32

20

12

62

32

1167

14

11

26.3

896.6

9

22

2280.2

397.9

399.1

LBANIA

BULGARIA

CHINA

CZECH REPUBLIC

HUNGARY

POLAND

SLOVAKIA

SLOVENIA

FSU states, Rumania, Mongolia

Inflation, average level in 1990-95, log scale

M2 as a % of GDP in 1995

Inflation and monetization in transition economies

Sheet1

DateInflation CPI (%)End of month exchange rate (MICEX) R/$Nom exch rateNominal exchange rate, R/S, left scaleNominal exchange rate, $/RConsumer price index, left scaleReal exchange rate, right scaleReal exchange rate (monthly average) Dec-94 =100 , % , , % , , % Share of enterprises in good or normal conditions, industry (%) "" , %

Jan 1990$/RFebr1992=100%Febr1992=100%Febr1992=100%end of the month

Feb 1990Febr1992=100%

Mar 1990

Apr 1990

May 1990

Jun 1990

Jul 1990

Aug 1990

Sep 1990

Oct 1990

Nov 1990

Dec 1990

Jan 19911259.4949671572

Feb 19911634.8662118849

Mar 19911624.3645567955

Apr 19910.0371971.8441347912

May 19910.03791025.0316098797

Jun 19910.0421081.5953198279

Jul 19910.051393.4782735995

Aug 19910.05191378.286533635

Sep 19910.0561447.7070731127

Oct 19910.07311622.6623489175

Nov 19910.112513.6262625391

Dec 19910.16923353.6441419616

Jan 19920.231202.5240527574

Feb 199237.99594555460.1397.1942446043100.000005599.999994510099.9999945822.04323691188

Mar 199229.90556138510.16036.2383031815115.3237473586.7124094541129.9055613851112.644242292519.61906320936

Apr 199221.69628432960.14366.9637883008103.309358296.7966520578158.0902413431153.0260608502431.68049626535

May 199211.89433160760.1138.849557522181.2949685123.008842792176.8940188877217.5952856021310.70311094424

Jun 199219.1007236920.1446.9444444444103.59712896.5277724688210.6820566632203.3666962883267.06374337915

Jul 199210.59866520570.16126.2034739454115.971229486.2282830986233.0115424974200.9218525171275.45823984236

Aug 19928.60127893360.2054.8780487805147.482022567.8048743195253.0535152151171.5826179527298.23935886199

Sep 199211.50273677230.2543.937007874182.73382354.724406439282.1615949633154.4112580424351.57878941895

Oct 199222.90070658240.3982.5125628141286.33095134.9246211947346.778593914121.1111103088460.13687640725

Nov 199226.10142822560.4472.2371364653321.582751531.0961951577437.2927597062135.9814099688440.727216826

Dec 199225.20036473580.41452.4125452352298.2014552533.5343769252547.4921301154183.5980745488343.20717948776

Jan 199325.80.5721.7482517483411.51081424.3006979642688.7450996852167.3698664175319.439443240174258

Feb 199324.64228934820.5931.6863406408426.618728523.440133618858.467660021201.2259665766301.901646198274159

Mar 199320.15306122450.6841.4619883041492.08635820.32163630921031.4751731375209.6126333048294.18045716164654

Apr 199318.68365180470.8231.2150668287592.086363516.88942798971224.1924029381206.7590943493286.858217452984456

May 199318.11270125221.0240.9765625736.69068813.57421800341445.9267156348196.2732445499294.5586771933-11.479460810384357

Jun 199319.91669822041.060.9433962264762.5899713.11320682591733.9075760756227.3708866215286.515888848-11.813782759794159

Jul 199322.38711714560.9871.0131712259710.071981514.0830792662122.0794963274298.8541375544222.5744537278-13.237600103294258

Aug 199326.00619195050.99251.0075566751714.0288162514.00503701312673.9515634837374.4879061782170.3326270557-15.585100737193169

Sep 199322.99344799341.1690.8554319932841.007240511.89050405093288.7852256034391.0531404757151.0088927742-12.526234726293763

Oct 199319.49392375561.1840.8445945946851.79860811.73986421923929.8985099685461.3647490216140.2223663251-9.5460282809102872

Nov 199316.39732516021.2310.8123476848885.611559511.29163219784574.2967471144516.5127643204121.4226822417-8.1989213645111981

Dec 199312.49551166971.2470.8019246191897.122351511.14675159225145.8785309549573.598297083112.3162097361-3.4263692946112179

Jan 199417.91.5480.6459948321113.6691268.97932767156066.9907879958544.7749826546111.1896830615-6.5869380831122179

Feb 199410.68702290081.6590.60277275471193.52524558.37854082916715.3714828961562.6501415211110.3389365563-0.7598206897142080

Mar 19947.43295019161.7530.5704506561261.15114857.92926368257214.5217003987572.058449059111.75253369522.1334700428171882

Apr 19948.4878744651.8320.54585152841317.9856847.58733582727826.8812455824593.8517649014107.7098232879-2.3052110454161981

May 19946.96909927681.9160.52192066811378.4173427.2546968878372.3443698636607.3882063698105.7898430154-0.6516828519171981

Jun 19945.96189305471.9890.50276520861430.93533056.98843601588871.4945873662619.9787228865104.16712159961.3156682135182377

Jul 19945.33642691422.060.48543689321482.014476.74757244449344.9154122141630.5549373087102.55375597281.8004911894201882

Aug 19944.68061674012.1970.45516613561580.57562656.32680893749782.3150873452618.9083852322102.8465913462-0.4132730142192575

Sep 19947.94318779592.6330.37979491071894.24470855.27914896910559.3427455194557.4434336882105.6353201409-1.8140911306192476

Oct 199415.00974658873.0750.3252032522212.23033754.520324954612144.2733330535548.960618033119.3954293587-2.7245719219172773

Nov 199414.61864406783.2340.30921459492326.6188334.298082633113919.6014262329598.2759715108.1114053093-3.8019806302173367

Dec 199416.48798521263.550.28169014082553.9569753.915492742416214.6632510388634.8839627981100-4.9426287063183565

Jan 199517.84.0480.24703557312912.2303763.433794277519100.8733097237655.884694670396.9061285273-7.9400934859-1.3615245704192773

Feb 199511.03565365034.4730.22356360383217.98578853.107533922521208.7795323588659.070018523896.5724768892-1.87901062061.3305091113202575

Mar 19958.86850152914.8990.20412329053524.46062552.837313581423089.6804694793655.126639872899.1244783687-0.0609713998-1.3082526994183664

Apr 19958.49719101125.130.19493177393690.6476852.709551507925051.654722855678.787488295796.99478906720.2414887986-0.442541278172971

May 19957.89644012944.990.20040080163589.9282552.785570989127029.8436394817752.935482814690.64617015240.7565819524-2.5182846664222872

Jun 19956.65866826634.5390.22031284423265.46780553.062348366528829.671260347882.864966905879.26828414331.1593238635-0.0245184583222971

Jul 19955.39932508444.4450.22497187853197.84190253.127108939430386.2789324467950.212044838572.32161155432.08969431432.6304118171213268

Aug 19954.58911419424.4470.22487069933199.28075153.12570254931780.7399720361993.371399403967.73556776582.49176177494.5535121218232674

Sep 19954.43877551024.4990.22227161593236.69082553.089575291333191.41567487651025.473777519365.63851405752.06853887853.5867077179252872

Oct 19954.7386419154.5040.22202486683240.2879483.086145478634764.23801022721072.874959513563.41326109142.07859703742.2637096457252377

Nov 19954.52425373134.580.21834061143294.964213.034934330936337.0603455781102.80591926661.27400070822.40566320914.5359710086241783

Dec 19953.21285140564.640.21551724143338.129682.995689490437504.51609965281123.518847226244.7162500413.4197539614.5665999624261981

Jan 19964.14.7340.21123785383405.7555832.936206006739042.20125973851146.359458518459.17820300132.54620987221.9499730926301288

Feb 19962.78578290114.8180.20755500213466.1872412.885014370240129.83222662851157.751426465158.60465641633.41230769851.4643152838291684

Mar 19962.80373831784.8560.20593080723493.5253722.862438063341254.96770961811180.89789873258.09054025463.26914490083.0278585259311585

Apr 19962.18181818184.940.20242914983553.957032.813765027442155.07609600971186.144788475757.83372819193.89768294976.3748861531311486

May 19961.60142348755.0310.19876764063619.42465952.762870052842830.15738580351183.341591967858.0282087364.4656750398.1810371439331486

Jun 19961.13835376535.1050.19588638593672.66207252.722820614243317.7160950991179.463703438858.19872061594.98666889656.331687125381387

Jul 19960.77922077925.1890.19271535943733.09373052.678743348543655.25673999581169.412286204558.99461064574.87413793784.7077368959361981

Aug 1996-0.25773195885.3520.18684603893850.3599242.597159797443542.74319169691130.874620844860.82015166915.43667086173.913685402371585

Sep 19960.34453057715.4070.18494544113889.92827152.570741489843692.76125609551123.227941661961.67382944225.34650299662.7797013835371981

Oct 19961.20171673825.4510.18345257753921.58294952.549990687144217.82448149061127.550406325861.96122579243.02337718551.979908031391585

Nov 19961.86598812555.510.18148820333964.0289952.522685886745042.9238356831136.291482542161.59575562462.15830102351.2063756868391783

Dec 19961.41548709415.570.17953321364007.1944652.495511532445680.50060937711139.962160767761.41753799352.08313194450.8132779168401783

Jan 19972.35.630.17761989344050.3599352.468916382946731.15212339281153.753070673560.82466556180.77933105860.5850215549381882

Feb 19971.56402737055.6760.17618040874083.4534622.448907546847462.04013314281162.301482674360.53451773411.62040875770.7973596387411882

Mar 19971.44369586145.7270.17461148944120.14411152.427099569748147.24764228351168.581640333860.3420713071.47604704481.0760350836401783

Apr 19970.94876660345.7440.17409470754132.3743282.419916301448604.05264837721176.17739320160.2500604511.4106670621.1320770997451783

May 19970.93984962415.7670.17340038154148.92109152.4102651749060.8576544711182.496764158459.89137434551.51481163951.2131852581401882

Jun 19971.11731843585.7690.17334026694150.35994052.40942957849609.02366178351195.294489465659.46225098470.98988325661.1404035131422476

Jul 19970.92081031315.8090.1721466694179.13692052.39283856750065.82866787731197.994457235659.11885041781.19963039411.112612089452080

Aug 1997-0.09124087595.840.17123287674201.439082.380136855450020.1481672681190.547981651859.55197437622.19162920341.1353808307432476

Sep 1997-0.34703196355.8640.170532064218.7052682.37039550449846.56226495231181.560670830760.14639983112.21806229910.8199845001423169

Oct 19970.16495601175.90.16949152544244.604552.355932073849928.78716604921176.288310911160.60092231821.64109515150.5944203655393268

Nov 19970.64043915835.9240.16880486164261.8707382.346387446950248.55067031481179.025685182960.51293505291.09264727790.9321872699452575

Dec 19970.90909090915.9740.16739203214297.8419632.326749118850705.35567640861179.786416367360.38243880441.19827749951.478929957472773

Jan 19981.56.0480.16534391534351.0793762.298280296951465.93601155471182.831466955960.06214280590.68702650951.5258444377502476

Feb 19980.88669950746.0450.16542597194348.92110252.299420882651922.28421264241193.911845924260.03063761661.33805197091.7591530463461981

Mar 19980.644531256.0890.16423057974380.57578052.282804932752256.93956010671192.92399398160.17999119982.0810198341.4983248384502179

Apr 19980.42693576566.110.16366612114395.6836952.274958958352480.04312508291193.899442418460.29025448812.33296961781.0856757819501783

May 19980.48309178746.1380.16291951784415.8275812.264581172352733.5699034651194.194495508960.37588526132.37351211092.5757576862521684

Jun 19980.05769230776.2250.16064257034478.41751252.232931604152763.99311687081178.183877889860.78525208853.2613964767-5.7102027353521882

Jul 19980.16336728816.2720.15943877554512.2304642.216198857752850.19222152071171.265356306161.17488929052.9706488203-5.9392931948532080

Aug 19983.712942530910.3630.09649715337455.39609351.341310357654812.4894861977735.205598720464.8017954204-0.344345769-5.034873577541387

Sep 199838.390379278416.0450.062324711711543.16610250.866313445775855.2120919073657.143901580799.6364107467-25.39156360090521684

Oct 19984.545454545516.60.060240963911942.44670.837349351579303.1762779031664.0446323106104.8631897906-1.11577051160522278

Nov 19985.690537084418.470.054141851713287.7705150.752571696683815.9529331034630.7751389783102.6310550153-2.41989630020482674

Dec 199811.554748941321.140.047303689715208.633930.657521250593500.6758672975614.7868131855112.2552389937-7.71606788580493268

Jan 19998.423.10.043290043316618.705950.6017315686101354.73264015609.8834226028115.3339091537-4.8206720640463070

Feb 19994.105166051723.10.043290043316618.705950.6017315686105515.512716245634.9201498222113.2224243655-0.9738904543-0.8460318342464159

Mar 19992.791315906124.860.040225261517884.893070.5591311036108460.784006065606.4379785865113.33349362390.3841632986-0.4163746824474159

Apr 19993.017241379324.290.041169205417474.8211050.5722519241111733.30766142639.3960029122115.72056086380.0545073175-0.3396352534434159

May 19992.242677824324.70.0404858317769.785150.5627530055114239.125774664642.8841137377112.18437557580.7949505775-0.0919168763444555

Jun 19991.898837780324.210.041305245817417.2671450.5741428846116408.341454785668.3502095115110.16738302210.4461720403-0.7023678023364852

Jul 19992.811244979924.1980.041325729417408.6340510.5744276071119680.865110141687.4799295541106.9044814255-0.0342484039384753

Aug 19991.17187524.860.040225261517884.893070.5591311036121083.37524815677.0148123013364951

Sep 19991.4656625.1790.03971563618114.38948550.5520473107122858.045845812678.2345380404345446

Oct 19991.3619426.030.038417210918726.6197350.5339992023124531.298715405664.9961417364345248

Nov 19991.2214926.650.037523452219172.6629250.5215759563126052.436076083657.4591989082344852

Dec 19991.2469826.9590.03709336419394.96509550.5155977312127624.284743465658.0279166013364753

Jan 20002.3440628.60.03496503520575.54070.4860139593130615.874552423634.8113833646334951

Feb 20001.0481328.690.034855350320640.2889050.4844893425131984.898718369639.452767962315347

Mar 20000.6530928.680.034867503520633.094660.4846582718132846.878893409643.8533873978305149

Apr 20000.8306928.3950.035217467920428.05867750.4895227764133950.424631688655.7178376388295050

May 20001.741128.250.035398230120323.7421250.4920353712136282.635474951670.5587712969295644

Jun 20002.5669628.080.035612535620201.439960.4950142178139780.956214539691.9356070226265446

Jul 20001.8135627.8510.035905353520036.69174950.499084386142315.967724063710.2767737474265446

Aug 20000.9618827.830.03593244720021.5838350.4994609858143684.876554407717.6499009196215842

Sep 20001.3

DateInflation (CPI), % a month, right scaleEnd of month exchange rate (MICEX) R/$Nom exch rateNominal exchange rate, R/$, left scaleNominal exchange rate, $/RConsumer price index, left scaleReal exchange rate, right scaleReal exchange rate (monthly average) Dec-94 =100 , % , , % , , %, left scaleShare of enterprises in good or normal conditions, industry (%) , %, left scale

Jan-20002.3440628.60.03496503520575.54070.4860139593130615.874552423634.8113833646334951

Feb-20001.0481328.690.034855350320640.2889050.4844893425131984.898718369639.452767962315347

Mar-20000.6530928.680.034867503520633.094660.4846582718132846.878893409643.8533873978305149

Apr-20000.8306928.3950.035217467920428.05867750.4895227764133950.424631688655.7178376388295050

May-20001.741128.250.035398230120323.7421250.4920353712136282.635474951670.5587712969295644

June-20002.5669628.080.035612535620201.439960.4950142178139780.956214539691.9356070226265446

July-20001.8135627.8510.035905353520036.69174950.499084386142315.967724063710.2767737474265446

Aug-20000.9618827.830.03593244720021.5838350.4994609858143684.876554407717.6499009196215842

Sheet1

32874328743287432874

32905329053290532905

32933329333293332933

32964329643296432964

32994329943299432994

33025330253302533025

33055330553305533055

33086330863308633086

33117331173311733117

33147331473314733147

33178331783317833178

33208332083320833208

33239332393323933239

33270332703327033270

33298332983329833298

33329333293332933329

33359333593335933359

33390333903339033390

33420334203342033420

33451334513345133451

33482334823348233482

33512335123351233512

33543335433354333543

33573335733357333573

33604336043360433604

3363533635833635

3366433664633664

3369533695533695

3372533725433725

3375633756533756

3378633786633786

3381733817933817

3384833848533848

3387833878533878

3390933909633909

3393933939633939

3397033970758

3400134001759

3402934029654

3406034060856

34090-11.4794608103857

34121-11.8137827597959

34151-13.2376001032958

34182-15.5851007371969

34213-12.5262347262963

34243-9.54602828091072

34274-8.19892136451181

34304-3.42636929461179

34335-6.58693808311279

34366-0.75982068971480

343942.13347004281782

34425-2.30521104541681

34455-0.65168285191781

344861.31566821351877

345161.80049118942082

34547-0.41327301421975

34578-1.81409113061976

34608-2.72457192191773

34639-3.80198063021767

34669-4.94262870631865

-7.9400934859-1.36152457041973

-1.87901062061.33050911132075

-0.0609713998-1.30825269941864

0.2414887986-0.4425412781771

0.7565819524-2.51828466642272

1.1593238635-0.02451845832271

2.08969431432.63041181712168

2.49176177494.55351212182374

2.06853887853.58670771792572

2.07859703742.26370964572577

2.40566320914.53597100862483

3.4197539614.56659996242681

2.54620987221.94997309263088

3.41230769851.46431528382984

3.26914490083.02785852593185

3.89768294976.37488615313186

4.4656750398.18103714393386

4.98666889656.3316871253887

4.87413793784.70773689593681

5.43667086173.9136854023785

5.34650299662.77970138353781

3.02337718551.9799080313985

2.15830102351.20637568683983

2.08313194450.81327791684083

0.77933105860.58502155493882

1.62040875770.79735963874182

1.47604704481.07603508364083

1.4106670621.13207709974583

1.51481163951.21318525814082

0.98988325661.14040351314276

1.19963039411.1126120894580

2.19162920341.13538083074376

2.21806229910.81998450014269

1.64109515150.59442036553968

1.09264727790.93218726994575

1.19827749951.4789299574773

0.68702650951.52584443775076

1.33805197091.75915304634681

2.0810198341.49832483845079

2.33296961781.08567578195083

2.37351211092.57575768625284

3.2613964767-5.71020273535282

2.9706488203-5.93929319485380

-0.344345769-5.0348735775487

-25.391563600905284

-1.115770511605278

-2.419896300204874

-7.716067885804968

-4.82067206404670

-0.9738904543-0.84603183424659

0.3841632986-0.41637468244759

0.0545073175-0.33963525344359

0.7949505775-0.09191687634455

0.4461720403-0.70236780233652

-0.0342484039363423853

36373363733651

36404364043446

36434364343448

36465364653452

36495364953653

36526365263351

36557365573147

36586365863049

36617366172950

36647366472944

36678366782646

36708367082646

36739367392142

36770367703677036770

, % ,

, % ,

, %

"" , %

. 5. ,

Sheet2

100.000005510099.9999945

115.32374735129.9055613851112.644242292

103.3093582158.0902413431153.0260608502

81.2949685176.8940188877217.5952856021

103.597128210.6820566632203.3666962883

115.9712294233.0115424974200.9218525171

147.4820225253.0535152151171.5826179527

182.733823282.1615949633154.4112580424

286.330951346.778593914121.1111103088

321.5827515437.2927597062135.9814099688

298.20145525547.4921301154183.5980745488

411.510814688.7450996852167.3698664175

426.6187285858.467660021201.2259665766

492.0863581031.4751731375209.6126333048

592.08636351224.1924029381206.7590943493

736.6906881445.9267156348196.2732445499

762.589971733.9075760756227.3708866215

710.07198152122.0794963274298.8541375544

714.028816252673.9515634837374.4879061782

841.00724053288.7852256034391.0531404757

851.7986083929.8985099685461.3647490216

885.61155954574.2967471144516.5127643204

897.12235155145.8785309549573.598297083

1113.6691266066.9907879958544.7749826546

1193.52524556715.3714828961562.6501415211

1261.15114857214.5217003987572.058449059

1317.9856847826.8812455824593.8517649014

1378.4173428372.3443698636607.3882063698

1430.93533058871.4945873662619.9787228865

1482.014479344.9154122141630.5549373087

1580.57562659782.3150873452618.9083852322

1894.244708510559.3427455194557.4434336882

2212.230337512144.2733330535548.960618033

2326.61883313919.6014262329598.2759715

2553.95697516214.6632510388634.8839627981

2912.23037619100.8733097237655.8846946703

3217.985788521208.7795323588659.0700185238

3524.460625523089.6804694793655.1266398728

3690.64768525051.654722855678.7874882957

3589.92825527029.8436394817752.9354828146

3265.467805528829.671260347882.8649669058

3197.841902530386.2789324467950.2120448385

3199.280751531780.7399720361993.3713994039

3236.690825533191.41567487651025.4737775193

3240.28794834764.23801022721072.8749595135

3294.9642136337.0603455781102.805919266

3338.1296837504.51609965281123.5188472262

3405.75558339042.20125973851146.3594585184

3466.18724140129.83222662851157.7514264651

3493.52537241254.96770961811180.897898732

3553.9570342155.07609600971186.1447884757

3619.424659542830.15738580351183.3415919678

3672.662072543317.7160950991179.4637034388

3733.093730543655.25673999581169.4122862045

3850.35992443542.74319169691130.8746208448

3889.928271543692.76125609551123.2279416619

3921.582949544217.82448149061127.5504063258

3964.02899545042.9238356831136.2914825421

4007.19446545680.50060937711139.9621607677

4050.35993546731.15212339281153.7530706735

4083.45346247462.04013314281162.3014826743

4120.144111548147.24764228351168.5816403338

4132.37432848604.05264837721176.177393201

4148.921091549060.8576544711182.4967641584

4150.359940549609.02366178351195.2944894656

4179.136920550065.82866787731197.9944572356

4201.4390850020.1481672681190.5479816518

4218.70526849846.56226495231181.5606708307

4244.6045549928.78716604921176.2883109111

4261.87073850248.55067031481179.0256851829

4297.84196350705.35567640861179.7864163673

4351.07937651465.93601155471182.8314669559

4348.921102551922.28421264241193.9118459242

4380.575780552256.93956010671192.923993981

4395.68369552480.04312508291193.8994424184

4415.82758152733.5699034651194.1944955089

4478.417512552763.99311687081178.1838778898

4512.23046452850.19222152071171.2653563061

7455.396093554812.4894861977735.2055987204

11543.166102575855.2120919073657.1439015807

11942.446779303.1762779031664.0446323106

13287.77051583815.9529331034630.7751389783

15208.6339393500.6758672975614.7868131855

16618.70595101354.73264015609.8834226028

16618.70595105515.512716245634.9201498222

17884.89307108460.784006065606.4379785865

17474.821105111733.30766142639.3960029122

17769.78515114239.125774664642.8841137377

17417.267145116408.341454785668.3502095115

17408.634051119680.865110141687.4799295541

17884.89307121083.37524815677.0148123013

18114.3894855122858.045845812678.2345380404

18726.619735124531.298715405664.9961417364

19172.662925126052.436076083657.4591989082

19394.9650955127624.284743465658.0279166013

20575.5407130615.874552423634.8113833646

20640.288905131984.898718369639.452767962

20633.09466132846.878893409643.8533873978

20428.0586775133950.424631688655.7178376388

20323.742125136282.635474951670.5587712969

20201.43996139780.956214539691.9356070226

20036.6917495142315.967724063710.2767737474

20021.583835143684.876554407717.6499009196

Nominal exchange rate, R/S, left scale

Consumer price index, left scale

Real exchange rate, right scale

Nominal and real exchange rate, consumer price index, Febr. 1992 = 100%

Sheet3

8Feb-199237.9959455546

6Mar-199229.9055613851

5Apr-199221.6962843296

4May-199211.8943316076

5June-199219.100723692

6July-199210.5986652057

9Aug-19928.6012789336

5Sept-199211.5027367723

5Oct-199222.9007065824

6Nov-199226.1014282256

6Dec-199225.2003647358

75825.8

75924.6422893482

65420.1530612245

85618.6836518047

85718.1127012522

95919.9166982204

95822.3871171456

96926.0061919505

96322.9934479934

107219.4939237556

118116.3973251602

117912.4955116697

127917.9

148010.6870229008

17827.4329501916

16818.487874465

17816.9690992768

18775.9618930547

20825.3364269142

19754.6806167401

19767.9431877959

177315.0097465887

176714.6186440678

186516.4879852126

197317.8

207511.0356536503

18648.8685015291

17718.4971910112

22727.8964401294

22716.6586682663

21685.3993250844

23744.5891141942

25724.4387755102

25774.738641915

24834.5242537313

26813.2128514056

30884.1

29842.7857829011

31852.8037383178

31862.1818181818

33861.6014234875

38871.1383537653

36810.7792207792

3785-0.2577319588

37810.3445305771

39851.2017167382

39831.8659881255

40831.4154870941

38822.3

41821.5640273705

40831.4436958614

45830.9487666034

40820.9398496241

42761.1173184358

45800.9208103131

4376-0.0912408759

4269-0.3470319635

39680.1649560117

45750.6404391583

47730.9090909091

50761.5

46810.8866995074

50790.64453125

50830.4269357656

52840.4830917874

52820.0576923077

53800.1633672881

54873.7129425309

528438.3903792784

52784.5454545455

48745.6905370844

496811.5547489413

46708.4

46594.1051660517

47592.7913159061

43593.0172413793

44552.2426778243

36521.8988377803

38532.8112449799

36511.171875

34461.46566

34481.36194

34521.22149

36531.24698

33512.34406

31471.04813

33510.65309

31470.83069

30491.7411

29502.56696

29441.81356

26460.96188

26461.3

Share of barter in sales, %, left scale

Share of enterprises in poor financial conditions, %, left scale

Inflation (CPI), % a month, right scale

Fig. 4. Barter, financial conditions of industrial enterprises and inflation

RETTotal overdue payables of2RET

enterprises, R bn

Totalto suppliers, Rto the budgetwage ar-rears,

& non-budgetaryR bn % 2

funds, R bn ( )

1996.14 262.4131.4100.616216.71996.160.636825103846.42362713437.38347946476.645131518230

1996.2276.4137.2107.917.1229.21996.259.860383944247.07678883077.46073298436.195462478229

1996.3297.6145.5112.417.2241.81996.360.173697270546.48469809767.11331679079.305210918131

1996.4323.2158.1121.718.12511996.462.988047808848.48605577697.211155378510.079681274931

1996.5351.8171.1133.220.3254.21996.567.309205350152.39968528727.985837922910.700236034633

1996.6382.3186.3148.821.6266.91996.669.801423754255.75121768458.09291869619.591607343638

1996.7411.6203.6158.124.8271.91996.774.880470761358.14637734469.12100036789.231335049736

1996.8426.6209.8171.426.3275.31996.876.207773338262.25935343269.55321467496.937885942637

1996.9449.7218.6177.330.52761996.979.202898550764.239130434811.05072463778.442028985537

1996.10485.8230.1194.631278.81996.1082.532281205269.799139167911.119081779110.796269727439

1996.11499236.8197.931.9282.31996.1183.882394615770.102727594811.300035423311.47715196639

1996.12514.4245.9203.434.7288.31996.1285.293097467970.55150884512.036073534510.544571626840

1997.1529.1249.121735.4289.91997.185.926181441974.853397723412.21110727849.520524318738

1997.2559.7259.8231.836.9299.51997.286.744574290577.395659432412.320534223710.417362270541

1997.3601283.8251.237.6305.81997.392.805755395782.145192936612.2956180519.287115761940

1997.4634.3301.1254.236.7317.81997.494.745122718779.987413467611.548143486513.310258023945

1997.5653.8309.426138.4328.41997.594.214372716279.476248477511.693057247313.702801461640

1997.6668.6313.3268.439.33521997.689.005681818276.2511.164772727313.522727272742

1997.7694.3321.5281393631997.788.567493112977.410468319610.743801652914.545454545545

1997.8707.6328.9289.239.6364.61997.890.208447613879.319802523310.861217772913.686231486643

1997.9723.4330.2302.741.33631997.990.964187327883.388429752111.377410468313.553719008342

1997.10745.2340.2311.840.8368.81997.1092.245119305984.544468546611.062906724514.208242950139

1997.11761.7342.9321.241.4357.41997.1195.942921096889.871292669311.58365976515.724678231745

1997.12756.1344.7316.639.7374.11997.1292.14113873384.629778134210.612135792614.728682170547

1998.1687.7286.2299.241.8361.21998.179.235880398782.834994462911.572535991116.749723145150

1998.19 891.6399.6357.855.6362.91998.1110.11297878298.594654174715.321025075821.658859189950

1998.2941.7433.9370.159360.41998.2120.3940066593102.691453940116.370699223121.836847946746

1998.3998.3455.9386.562.33681998.3123.8858695652105.02717391316.929347826125.434782608750

1998.41034.1473.9407.964.23701998.4128.0810810811110.243243243217.351351351423.810810810850

1998.51075.5499.1422.968.6368.61998.5135.4042322301114.731416169318.610960390723.033098209452

1998.61082507.4420.273.23601998.6140.9444444444116.722222222220.333333333322.555555555652

1998.71132527.3429.778.1343.61998.7153.4633294529125.058207217722.729918509928.201396973253

1998.81160.5543.3439.884.1365.81998.8148.5237834882120.229633679622.990705303425.50574084254

1998.91199.8558456.588.1377.61998.9147.7754237288120.895127118623.331567796625.741525423752

1998.101224.7574467.186.8396.91998.10144.6208112875117.687074829921.869488536224.389014865252

1998.111238.7585.9478.685448.31998.11130.693731876106.758866830218.960517510619.897390140548

1998.121230.6586474.577444.21998.12131.9225574066106.821251688417.334533993720.959027465149

1999.11241.1583.5479.776463.91999.1125.7814184091103.405906445416.382841129621.965940935546

1999.21280.6597.7501.972.6473.81999.2126.1502743774105.930772477815.322921063722.878851836246

1999.31321.8623.8515.767.7509.61999.3122.409733124101.197017268413.284929356422.488226059747

1999.41358.9640.6538.863.1542.41999.4118.10471976499.336283185811.63348082621.460176991243

1999.51366.3639.354861.1567.71999.5112.612295226496.52985731910.762726792320.768011273644

1999.61388654.1557.859583.21999.6112.157064471995.644718792910.116598079620.078875171536

1999.71404.8654.456859.1590.81999.7110.765064319696.140825998610.003385240420.870006770538

1999.81427.4658.7573.356.2597.41999.8110.261131570195.96585202549.407432206223.300970873836

1999.91416.9665.9576.254.6625.11999.9106.526955687192.17725163978.734602463619.228923372334

1999.101435.1665585.253.1646.61999.10102.845654191290.50417568828.212186823420.383544695334

1999.111416.3694.4583.250.9704.71999.1198.538385128482.75862068977.22293174412.459202497534

1999.121354.5619.5572.643.76951999.1289.136690647582.38848920866.287769784217.079136690636

2000.11351.1615.5571.344.9726.62000.184.709606385978.62647949356.179466006116.432700247733

2000.21483.9685605.143.6751.42000.291.163162097480.52967793455.802501996319.989353207331

2000.31577729622.639.9787.92000.392.524432034579.02018022595.064094428223.543596903230

2000.41598.9728.4634.838.7831.62000.487.590187590276.33477633484.653679653723.689273689329

2000.51602.2747.8632.338.7892.22000.583.81528805270.86976014354.337592468120.555929163929

2000.61614.1748630.139.3931.22000.680.326460481167.66537800694.220360824721.123281786926

2000.71647.1766.1653.440.5960.12000.779.793771482168.05541089474.218310592619.487553379926

2000.838.321

, % , %,

6/1/9221212257.54716981135DateInflation (CPI), % a month, right scaleEnd of month exchange rate (MICEX) R/$Nom exch rateNominal exchange rate, R/$, left scaleNominal exchange rate, $/RConsumer price index, left scaleReal exchange rate, right scaleReal exchange rate (monthly average) Dec-94 =100 , % , , % , , %, left scaleShare of enterprises in good or normal conditions, industry (%) , %, left scale

7/1/9224415061.47540983616Jan-20002.3440628.60.03496503520575.54070.4860139593130615.874552423634.8113833646334951

8/1/9225115260.55776892439Feb-20001.0481328.690.034855350320640.2889050.4844893425131984.898718369639.452767962315347

9/1/9219512162.05128205135Mar-20000.6530928.680.034867503520633.094660.4846582718132846.878893409643.8533873978305149

10/1/921057268.57142857145Apr-20000.8306928.3950.035217467920428.05867750.4895227764133950.424631688655.7178376388295050

11/1/921567749.3589743596May-20001.741128.250.035398230120323.7421250.4920353712136282.635474951670.5587712969295644

12/1/921406546.42857142866June-20002.5669628.080.035612535620201.439960.4950142178139780.956214539691.9356070226265446

1/1/931446243.05555555567July-20001.8135627.8510.035905353520036.69174950.499084386142315.967724063710.2767737474265446

2/1/931285442.18757Aug-20000.9618827.830.03593244720021.5838350.4994609858143684.876554407717.6499009196215842

3/1/931134539.82300884966

4/1/931254737.68

5/1/931406042.85714285718

6/1/931355742.22222222229

7/1/931315340.45801526729

8/1/931315541.98473282449

9/1/931395841.7266187059

10/1/931446041.666666666710

11/1/9315

Documents

Macroeconomic policy 1992-onwards