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ELENI DESPOTOUDEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL
Munich, 28/10/2009
A PART OF OUR FUTURE
SOLAR PV ELECTRICITY
2
Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Our Policy activities
3. PV Market Outlook
4. Competitiveness of PV
5. Impact on Regional Development
6. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
3
Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Our Policy activities
3. PV Market Outlook
4. Competitiveness of PV
5. Impact on Regional Development
6. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
4
Created in 1985 More than 208 members Represents the whole value chain of the Photovoltaic Industry Secretariat in Brussels - 17 people in 2009 8 Board members elected for 4 years
Who is EPIA?
EPIA is the world's largest industry association devoted to the solar electricity market.
5
EPIA and its members
• Silicon feedstock: Wacker, REC, DC Chemical…• Wafers and Ingots: Crystalox, Scanwafer, Pillar, Podolsky, PV Silicon…• Cells: Q-Cells, BP Solar, Isofoton, Shell Solar, SolarWorld, Sharp…• Modules: Aleo, Schott Solar, Photowatt, Suntech Power…• Systems: Tenesol, Naps Systems, Conergy, Phoenix …• Inverters: KACO, SMA, Sputnik, Sunways, Fronius…• Cabling: Multi-contact…• Equipment and services: AMAT, Centrotherm, Oerlikon, Stangl, IB Vogt, M+W Zander, Vesuvius…
EPIA represents 95% of the European photovoltaic industry, and 80% of the global photovoltaic industry world-wide
Total Turnover of EPIA members (2008): ~14.000 M€
6
Photovoltaïcs (PV)
= tranformation of the solar irradiation to electricity
8
Skylights
9
Why Solar Energy ?
1. Sun is the biggest renewable energy source
2. Sun Provides every hour as much energy on earth as mankind consumes yearly
• PV covering only 0,71% of EU surface would provide 100% EU electricity needs
• PV covering only 4% of world’s very dry deserts would meet world PRIMARY energy demand (IEA)
3. PV can be deployed globally – not only in the world sunbelt – but also in regions of less
radiation
4. PV is reliable for decades with virtually no maintenance need
5. PV has a very limited – and decreasing – ecological footprint: 1.5 – 3 years payback
6. PV can be implemented from small electrical devices up to large scale solar farms
7. PV can contribute substantially to decrease energy dependence
8. PV stimulates national & regional economies and employment (Germany).
9. PV is perfectly adapted – and already competitive – for remote rural electrification
10
Finite resources
11TITLE OF THE PRESENTATION
Climate Change
1. Depending on the energy mix replaced by PV, each kWh generated can save up to 900g of CO2 (coal fired power plants).
2. 12% of PV electricity in Europe by 2020 can save up to 220 millions metric tons of CO2 each year.
Munich, 28/10/2009
12
Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Our Policy activities
3. PV Market Outlook
4. Competitiveness of PV
5. Impact on Regional Development
6. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
13
Our major interlocutors
1. European Institutions (EC, EP, Council)
2. International institutions
3. Governements of MS
4. Other related industries/associations
5. Utilities
6. NGOs
14
Areas of activities
1. Advocacy
2. Regultory frameworks/policy
3. Business intelligence
4. Two ways communication
15
Policy areas
1. RES directive – EU’s Renewable Energy Directive
2. Third energy package
3. WEEE & RoHs – Electronic Waste and Hasardous materials directive
4. EPBD – European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings
5. MSP
6. PV Cycle – PV Modules Recycling
7. REACH – EU’s Directive on Chemical Products
8. SET plan/solar industry initiative
9. ETS/NEPs
10.FPs – European Research Programs
16
Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Our Policy activities
3. PV Market Outlook
4. Competitiveness of PV
5. Impact on Regional Development
6. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
17
PV represented 19% of new EU capacity installations in 2008
Source: Platts, EPIA, EWEA
Wind Gas Photovoltaic Fuel Oil Coal Hydro Biomass Other Nuclear -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
8,484
6,932
4,700
2,495
762 473 296 149 60
PV represented in 2008 more than 19% of new power capacity installed
EU New Power capacity installed in 2008: 24.351 MW
Source: Platts, EPIA, EWEA
18
EU vs. Global
Source: EPIA, 2009
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E
EU NaN NaN NaN NaN 90 128 188 266 373 543 1089 1981 3107 4867 9267 13000
GLOBAL 502 580 669 795 948 1150 1428 1762 2201 2795 3847 5253 6851 9162 14160 19300
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
Historical Development of cumulative installed capacity global and EU PV capacity (all figures in MWp)
EU
GLOBAL
19
European annual PV market Outlook until 2013 (Policy-Driven scenario)
20
Historical development of Global Cumulative PV power installed per Region
21
Historical development of Global Cumulative PV power installed : grid-connected vs. off-grid
22
Historical development of the Global annual PV market per Region
23
Annual PV MarketsTOP 10 worldwide
Worldwide ranking annual market
2006 2007 2008Country MWp Country MWp Country MWp
1 Germany 850 Germany 1.100 Spain 2,511 2 Japan 287 Spain 560 Germany 1,500 3 USA 145 Japan 210 USA 342 4 Spain 88 USA 207 Korea 274 5 Korea 20 Italy 70 Italy 258 6 Italy 13 Korea 43 Japan 230 7 China 12 China 20 Czech Republic 51 8 India 12 India 20 Portugal 50 9 Australia 10 Belgium 18 Belgium 48 10 France 8 Portugal 14 France 46
24
Cumulative PV power installedTOP 10 worldwide
Worldwide ranking cumulative installed PV power
2006 2007 2008Country MWp Country MWp Country MWp
1 Germany 2.708 Germany 3.808 Germany 5,308 2 Japan 1.708 Japan 1.919 Spain 3,223 3 USA 624 USA 831 Japan 2,149 4 Spain 151 Spain 712 USA 1,173 5 China 80 Italy 120 Korea 352 6 Australia 70 China 100 Italy 350 7 Netherlands 53 Australia 82 China 145 8 Italy 50 Korea 78 Australia 100 9 Korea 35 Netherlands 53 India 90 10 India 31 India 51 France 87
25
Europe: Global PV Market Leader
2626
2010 ESTIMATES
Country Market figure 2009 Market figure 2010 Comments
Germany 2.3-2.5 GW 2 GW – 3GW Possible changes in policy in 2010
Italy 400 – 500 MW 600 MW EPIA estimates
France 200 – 280 MW 450 – 600 MW 2009: with off-grid systems.
Spain 100 - 150 MW 400 MW EPIA+ASIF estimates
USA 400 MW (240 MW CA) > 600MW SEIA estimates
Japan 400 MW 100 - 400MW Unclear policy for 2010.
China 100– 460 MW 380 - 1 GW Various sources indicates various results
Total World 5.2 GW 7-9 GW Source: Pv-tech, EPIA
27
Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Our Policy activities
3. PV Market Outlook
4. Competitiveness of PV
5. Impact on Regional Development
6. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
28
Indicative
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
3 PV deployment scenarios in Europe1
GW
p
PV deployment scenarios in Europe1) (GWp)
1) Europe 27, Croatia, Norway and TurkeySources: EPIA, EU DG TREN “European Energy and Transport: trends to 2030, update 2007”, Eurostat Data Portal,
EU JRC Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, A.T. Kearney analysis
Asymptote without paradigm shift
Possible evolution after Paradigm Shift
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 1
The Paradigm Shift requires significant changes in the
existing electricity system and at market and regulatory level,
together with a strong collaboration with other players in the energy
sector 12%
6%
4%
29
3 PV deployment scenarios
1. Scenario 1) Baseline - 4% penetration: this PV penetration does not require changes to the existing electricity system, it requires full cooperation from the whole industry to achieve price reductions and the definition of a good market strategy
2. Scenario 2) Accelerated Growth - 6% penetration : this PV penetration requires minor changes to the existing electricity system, it requires the industry to optimize their Supply Chain, to cooperate with the Utilities on infrastructure changes and compelling product and service offering
3. Scenario 3) Paradigm Shift - 12% penetration: this PV penetration assumes important changes at market, regulatory and utility level, together with significant technology advancements in the electricity system, that free PV penetration from the risk of producing more electricity than the current system can absorb
30
In order to sustain a large PV deployment, the PV industry will need to deliver between 70 and 160 GWp p.a. WW by 2020 depending on the scenario
Worldwide1 annual PV installation (GWp)
1)The analysis assumes 33% of cumulative installation by 2020 in Europe in the Baseline Scenario; 43% in Accelerated Growth Scenario; 55% in Paradigm Shift Sources: EPIA, A.T. Kearney analysis
31
Overview of main Feed-in Tariff and Green certificate schemes in Europe
Country Main support scheme
Ground mounted
BIPV BAPV Duration Cap Cumulative PV Power installed (end 2008)
France FiT 0.32 - 0.43 0.60 0.32 - 0.43 20 - 87 MW
Germany FiT 0.32 0.33 – 0.43 20 - 5,308 MW
Italy FiT 0.35 – 0.39 0.43 – 0.48 0.39 - 0.43 20 1200 MW 430 MW
Switzerland FiT 0.30 - 0.40 0.38 - 0.56 0.37 - 0.46 25 16 Mio CHF 46 MW
Austria FiT 0.30 - 0.46 10+1+1 3.3 MW/year 30 MW
Belgium GCBrussels: 0.15 - 0.65Wallonia: 0.15 - 0.63
Flanders: 0.45
Brussels 10Wallonia 15Flanders : 20
- 71 MW
Bulgaria FiT 0.38 - 0.42 25 - 1.4 MWCzeck Republic
FiT 0.48 - 0.49 20 - 54 MW
Greece FiT 0.40 - 0.50 20 - 20 MW
Luxembourg FiT 0.36 - 0.39 15 5MW 24 MW
Netherlands FiT 0.29 15 15 MW (2009) 59 MW
Portugal FiT 0.62 5+10 12 MW 68 MW
Romania GC 0.11 – 0.22 10 0.45 MW
Slovenia FiT 0.33 - 0.37 5+5+10 - 2.1 MW
Spain FiT 0.32 – 0.34 25500 MW (2009)
3,137 MW
UK GC 0.03-0.06 lifetime 24.1 MW
32
With the transition to grid parity, the attractiveness of the PV value proposition becomes the driver of mass penetration
33
Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Our Policy activities
3. PV Market Outlook
4. Competitiveness of PV
5. Impact on Regional Development
6. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
34
PV as a driver for regional development
1. Saxony Anhalt, DE
2. Puglia, IT
3. Poitou – Charentes, FR
4. Rhone Alpes, FR
35
Employment
Ingots/WaferFeedstock/materials Solar cell Solar moduleBOS including Installation
• Physics• Chemists• Electronic Engineers• Production Engineers
• Installers• Retailers• Service Engineers
• Physics• Electronic Engineers• Production Engineers
Value Chain
Profiles needed
Mn FTE created1)
1) Does not take into account FTEs displaced in other industriesSources: Freiburg university PV employment study; EPIA Solar Generation V 2008; A.T. Kearney analysis
36
Employment
37
Overview
1. Who’s EPIA ?
2. Our Policy activities
3. PV Market Outlook
4. Competitiveness of PV
5. Impact on Regional Development
6. Solar Europe Industry Initiative
38
List of projects proposed for the SET Plan
1. EU Solar Cities: Large-scale integration of PV in urban areas
2. Gigawatt PV manufacturing (GigaFabs and accompanying pilots) and integral value chain management
3. Environmental sustainability of large-scale deployment of PV
4. Education in support of large-scale PV deployment, and public awareness
39
2010PV electricity price(€ / kWh)
0.35
0.25
0.29
0.22
0.19
PV electricity prices
compared withexpected
consumerelectricity
prices(+ 1%/yr)
consumer electricity price(€ / kWh)
0.150.17
0.17
0.21
0.11
0.23
0.13
0.11
source: EUPVTP
40
2015PV electricity price(€ / kWh)
0.25
0.18
0.21
0.16
0.14
PV electricity prices
compared withexpected
consumerelectricity
prices(+ 1%/yr)
consumer electricity price(€ / kWh)
0.160.18
0.18
0.22
0.11
0.24
0.13
0.12
source: ECN
41
2020PV electricity price(€ / kWh)
0.20
0.14
0.17
0.13
0.11
PV electricity prices
compared withexpected
consumerelectricity
prices(+ 1%/yr)
consumer electricity price(€ / kWh)
0.160.19
0.19
0.23
0.12
0.26
0.14
0.12
source: ECN
42
“Solar future is not about fashion,
is about survival...”
N. Foster
www.epia.org
43Solar Electricity A Part of Our Future
www.epia.org
Eleni DespotouDeputy Secretary [email protected]