Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)

Issue Paper (DRAFT)

Climate Change in the Caribbean:Water, Agriculture, Forestry

Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty

University of Colorado and

NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center

Boulder CO 80305

• Background

• Water Resources in the Caribbean: an overview

• Agriculture, Food Security and Forestry in the Caribbean

• Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change in the Caribbean

• Impacts on Water Resources

• Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

• Approaches to Adaptation: Integrating climate and natural resources assessments under a decision-

oriented framework

Appendices

APPENDIX B. Climate and APPENDIX A: Water and Climate Dialogue Summary Statements

Food Security: Implications for Research and Policy

APPENDIX C. IWCAM Summary statements

APPENDIX D. Climate and agricultural applications in the Caribbean: A case study of climate information use in sugar production in Trinidad (summary)

Three questions under the MACC framework:

(2) Are planning strategies for water, agricultural and forest resources in the Caribbean supported by the climate record?

(3) What additional pressures will be placed on these resources as a result of projected

climatic variability and change?

(3) What practical strategies may be engaged to reduce vulnerability and enhance social,

economic and ecological resilience?

Characteristics of small island environments

• Ecological/environmental

• Geographical

• Socio-economic

• Historical and political

Climate change projections for the Caribbean region

Trends

• Avg. annual air temp 1 F

• Sea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrs

• Generally drier conditions

Scenarios for Future Climate

• 2-3 C

• Drier mid-year, wetter end of year

• Ocean surface warming

• Salt water intrusion into freshwater

• Some models suggest more persistent ENSO-like conditions and less but more intense more intense tropical storms (5-10% windspeed)

Changes in the total amount of precipitation and in its frequency andintensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and theintensity of floods and droughts; however, at present, specific regional effects are uncertain

The impacts of climate change will depend on the baseline conditions of the water supply system and the ability of water resourcemanagers to respond not only to climate change but also to population growth and changes in demands, technology, and economic, social and legislative conditions

Note: the latter are also “baseline” conditions

Where does climate variability Where does climate variability come from?come from?

• NAO

• TA

• ENSO

Trinidad Monthly Rainfall 1997 and 1998

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

mm

Mean

PPT97

PPT98

Sugar-industry operations chain

Cane cultivation

•Likelihood of meeting quota•Shipping timing (delays etc)• storage requirement

Marketing and Shipping

•Milling initiation•Cane and sugar storage

•Initiation of harvest•Completion of harvest•Selective harvesting•Road repair•Soil compaction and field conditions•Fire management

Harvest operations and transport

Milling and Sugar production

•Planting schedule•Pesticide and herbicide applications•IPM application•Irrigation timing•Runoff/erosion control•Fire management

• Secondary economies impact, minimizing environmental impacts, land-use/settlements

Tonnes sugarcane per hectare for CARICOM countries 1961-1996

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

Year

ton

nes c

an

e/h

a

Barbados

Belize

Guyana

Jamaica

St. Kitts

Trinidad

Puerto Rico Rainfall 13mth and 109 mth (9year) moving average

4

5

6

7

8

9

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

Year

inch

es

Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of global sea surface temperature(SST) 1870-2000. (A) spatial correlations between first EOF and Atlantic SSTs; (B) temporal reconstruction of variability averaged over the rectangle in A (Goldenberg et all 2001)

Caribbean hurricane tracks and strength during (A) warm and (B) cold Atlantic multidecadal modes

• The question remains “ Can we produce reliable baselines for planning give the large amount of year to year and decade to decade variations in the Caribbean?”

• Need for careful monitoring and inventory of critical variables and indicators (available and gaps)

• Need for “upscaling” local climate/met./hydro data and experience as well as “downscaling” models (precision vs. accuracy)

UrbanDevelopment

Recreation

Mineral &Fossil FuelExtraction

Conservation& Biodiversity

Health &Disease

Ecosystem &Land Use

Management

Water &Sustainability

Agriculture&

silviculture

…viewed from Sectors

and more…

Integrated Water Resource Assessments

Assessment of biophysical impacts on:• hydrologic resources,• water quality, and• aquatic ecosystem integrity.

Assessment of socio-economic impacts on:• demand from market water use sectors, and• water resources management systems

Water resources adaptations

Supply adaptation:• modification of existing physical infrastructure;• construction of new infrastructure; and• alternative management of the existing water

supply systems

Demand adaptation:• conservation and improved efficiency;• technological change; and• market/price-driven transfers to other activities.

Table 2. Renewable Water Resources in Selected Caribbean States

Source: UNDP, 2000: Table 21, p. 231-234.

Countries Internal renewable waterresources per capita (cubicmetres per year), 2000.

Belize 69565Barbados 303Antigua y Barbuda 770Dominica .Grenada .Guyana 281542Jamaica 3640Trinidad 3869Haiti 1,473World Total 7,122

Trends and conditioning factors

• Unit(s) of analysis: Upstream-downstream,

watershed, urban

• Relevant hydro-climatic variables: data,qc, uncertainties

• Demands : Scale, trends and criticality

• Reliability of supply and distribution

• Separation of regulatory and operational responsibilities

• Integration of water quantity and quality

• Security of rights

• Incorporation of climate issues in existing networks priorities and policies

• Post-audits of past events and technical interventions- if we did or are doing everything possible why did it work or not work?

Established frameworks for water allocation:national level

• Legal basis- water rights, legal/regulatory framework

• Institutional base-Govt. and Non-govt. Mandates,responsibilities and practices

• Technical base-monitoring, assessment, decision support modeling

• Financial and economic aspects-costs/benefits,pricing trading

• Participation• Structural and development base-water supply and operations, users

If so…………

………So what

Optimizing the net social benefit

• Difficulty in dealing with all related social aims of water/natural resource uses

• Difficulty in forging agreed-upon criteria for program evaluation

• Lack of progress in comprehensive integrated management and in coordinating watersheds plans

• Lack of comprehensive assessments of projects and initiatives

“Sufficient, reliable data are not available or shared at present to undertake a thorough analysis of the multiple threats to water resources, forestry, or food security”

e.g. water consumption rates (availability per capita) and access to network water and sanitation facilities: changing levels of domestic water use, deterioration? Of piped water, tourism, costs of obtaining water

IWCAM…

• Institutional mechanisms must be put in place at the national and regional level, to undertake the regular dissemination of user-friendly information on such technologies as well as to assist with the training of nationals in the use of such technology

• Introduction of incentives to encourage the use of appropriate

What does “capacity building” mean in this context?

• Climate simulations & scenarios

• Social trends• Demographics• Energy use• Land use

• Institutions• Policies• Laws

• Values• Politics

• Framing the question

• Synthesis tools• Data assimilation &

visualization• Complexity models• Scenario

development and testing

• Understanding methodologies

• Place-based

• Network design• Platforms• Appropriate mix of

observations• Quality assurance

and control

• Types of models• Scale

• Temporal• Spatial

• Performancemetrics

• Place-based and sector-based

• User oriented• Scenarios and

probabilistic outcomes

• Synthesis

• Distributed dissemination

• New technologies

• Interactive

• User friendly

• Flexible

• Dialog, not two monologues

ImprovedDecisionProcess

….viewed from Information chain

Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of water-related Ministries and organizations to identify pathways

for decision-making

1. Establishing and consolidate a viable scientific basis for water resources management sector and for (inter)national (water) policies

2. Initiating a multi-stakeholder process that builds the knowledge to cope with climate variability and change.

3. Building and share knowledge and information by bridging climate variability/change and water communities

4. Raising awareness of the issues relating climate and water, and broaden scientific, political and water managers participation in the discussion

Potential matrix of responsibilities within agencies, private and community partners________________________________________________________________________

Public and Private Agencies and Organizations

Tasks Water & Met. Agriculture Health Nat. OthersSewerage Services Agribusiness Res.

_______________________________________________________________________Water SupplySanitationIrrigationFlood ControlRecreationWatershed ManagementPortsQuality (Pollution)Groundwater managementInstream managementOther…________________________________________________________________________

Understand Current Vulnerability and Assess Trends

• Effects Related to Altered Resources

• Characterize the Risk of Climatic Variations and Review Past and Potential Responses

• National Food Balance

• Institutional Development

• Household Food Poverty

• Income Components

• Cultural Preferences

• Demography

• Individual Food Deprivation

• Nutritional Status

• Health Status

• Social Status: Three pillars of food security: food production, economic access to available food, and nutritional security

Which group(s) really maintain these pillars?

Developing effective decision environments (a role for C5)

Establish Regional Climate and Natural Resources Roundtables (which also provide for data sharing)

• Serve as a clearinghouse mechanism for promoting, initiating and facilitating climate change programs and policies;

• Review national strategies for enhancing the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and advising government on the way forward

Such Roundtables should:

• Evaluate options, information, and technology and to examine the sectors that will most benefit from these inputs among existing institutions

• Explore the feasibility of establishing a regional plan of action to identify and adapt, where appropriate, successful examples of water conservation and watershed programs;

• Identify entry points for information at different levels of governance (not just information provision)

Climate and cross-scale watershed issues: Linear vs. Adaptive management

Indeterminate

Long-term

Decade

Year

Seasonal

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

GlobalNational

RegionalParish/CountyHousehold-municipal-

Developing prototypes or pilot studies for climate impacts assessments

• Select the exposure unit (usually at the watershed)

• Define the study area and critical issue

• Determine general data availability and adequacy

• Select a time horizon

• Identify trends and influences on trend for critical issues

• Identify a preliminary range of adaptations

• Determine the need for integration across sectors

Problem-orientation

• Do we really know how we adjust to drought condtions?

UrbanDevelopment

Recreation

Mineral &Fossil FuelExtraction

Conservation& Biodiversity

Health &Disease

Ecosystem &Land Use

Management

Water &Sustainability

Agriculture&

silviculture

…viewed from Sectors

and more…

• Climate simulations& scenarios

• Social trends• Demographics• Energy use• Land use

• Institutions• Policies• Laws

• Values• Politics

• Framing the question• Synthesis tools

• Data assimilation &visualization

• Complexity models• Scenario development

and testing• Understanding

methodologies• Place-based

• Network design• Platforms• Appropriate mix of

observations• Quality assurance

and control

• Types of models• Scale

• Temporal• Spatial

• Performancemetrics

• Place-based andsector-based

• User oriented• Scenarios and

probabilisticoutcomes

• Synthesis

• Distributeddissemination

• New technologies

• Interactive

• User friendly

• Flexible

• Dialog, not twomonologues

ImprovedDecisionProcess

….viewed from Information chain

How do we effectively integrate these two?……

Differing perspectives on the Use of Climate InformationBetween Scientists and Water Managers

Factor Scientist’s Perspective Water Manager’sPerspective

Identifying a critical issue Based on a broadunderstanding of the natureof water management

Based on experience ofparticular, urgentcircumstance

Time frame Indefinite ImmediateGoals Prediction

ExplanationUnderstanding of naturalsystem

Optimization ofmultiple conditions andminimization of risk

Basis for Decisions Generalizing multiple factsand observationsUse of scientificprocedures, methodsAvailability of researchfunding

TraditionProcedureProfessional judgmentTrainingEconomicsPolitics

Expectation UnderstandingOngoing improvement(project never actuallycomplete)Statistical significance ofresults

Accuracy ofinformationAppropriatemethodologyPrecisionSave money, timeProtect the public

Product Characteristics ComplexScientifically defensible

As simple as possiblewithout losing accuracyImportance of context

Frame Physical (atmospheric)conditions as driversDependent on scientificdiscipline

Safety, well beingProfitConsistency withinstitutional culture

Nature of Use Conceptual Applied

Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions

___________________________________________________________________________

Approach Assumptions and actions

Development and From the risk expert to the public--finite and delivery of a risk message uni-directional

Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert viewsAssumes expert view has more validity for decision-

making

Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuousAimed at balancing the content of risk messageAssumes both views contribute to decision-making

Social processes Engage in a process that addresses concerns about riskof risk communication Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders

(DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product

_____________________________________________________________________________i.e. more than a one-way or even two-way street

Link pilots to strong institutional mechanisms: Realizing implementation

• Past recommendations and interventions: How

effective were they? What criteria are used for evaluation?

• Not simply communicating after project is over

Involving local organizations in planning andimplementation• Partnerships (not just stakeholder assessments)

• How is the common interest pursued and secured? Where and why have particular local organizations been successful and sustained?

Mainstreaming……..

• What partnerships need to be engaged? What activities already exist?

• Goals of participants: What is being valued? (by “experts and role of experts”, state agencies, NGOs, local communities) Whose agenda are we agreeing on?

• Trends: Robustness: choice, inventory and baselines

• Conditioning factors: reconstructing influences on events, past interventions

• Projections (scenarios and uncertainties)

• Alternatives: acting under uncertain information

• Pathways to decision-making: ,data, methods,Entry points: salience, legitimacy, acceptability, context

How does innovation occur?Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation in

water resources agenciesY= f(Xi)

Xi = (compatibility of innovation with needs and values

.capacity and characteristics

.1/complexity of innovation

.communicability within agency

.communication networks outside (incl. other resources and other

national water agencies)

.% of initial innovators

.investment in innovation

Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation Y= f(Xi)

Xi =

.observability in practice:who is else is involved?

.evaluation of support tools:DSS,pricing (transfer of tested and untested approaches)

.respect conferred)