Mainstreet - Manitoba January 27

MANITOBA[JANUARY 27, 2016

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,628 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on January 25th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.43%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.47%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.4%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Census.

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM EST - JANUARY 27, 2016PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

PCs DOMINATING

January 27, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the PC Party continuing to lead in Manitoba with the Liberals NDP and NDP tied for second. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.49%, 19 times out of 20.

The PCs are continuing to dominate throughout the province said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. They now have almost twice the support of either the Liberals or NDP in Winnipeg, while they hold an even larger lead in the rest of the province.

Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 52% (+8%), NDP 20% (-3%), Liberals 20% (-7%), Greens 9% (+3%)

Most PC voters (76%) have decided theyve made up their mind, continued Maggi. Those numbers drop for the NDP (64%) and Liberals (55%) so there is potential for movement. With both parties in second place the race to be the PC alternative may be the most crucial.

In the race to be the PC alternative both the NDP and Liberals face challenges. For the NDP, it is Greg Selingers high disapproval rating: 60% of Manitobans disapprove of the job hes doing. For the Liberals, it is Rana Bokharis visibility: 41% dont know what to make of her yet. Interestingly while her support in Winnipeg is higher, the support she has in the rest of the province is actually stronger. Support for Mr. Palister meanwhile is solid throughout the province.

These kinds of results this far out make it Brian Palisters race to lose. With over half the province indicating they will vote PC and 2/3 of those voters saying they have made up their mind it will take a lot to displace him at the top of the polls. The more interesting race right now is who the non-PC alternative will be - if there isnt one it could be a landslide win for the PCs. If the Liberals and NDP spit the non-PC vote it could lead to a lot of surprise PC wins on election night, nished Maggi. About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

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If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3416%34%9%9%33%172

35-4912%37%22%8%21%388

50-6416%37%15%5%

26%495

65+15%49%10%3%

23%573

Female15%37%15%6%26%858

Male14%40%13%7%

26%770

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

Winnipeg18%33%15%8%27%797

Rest of MB10%49%12%5%

24%831

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

15%

39%

14%

7%

26%

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If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED AND LEANING)

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

18-3420%50%14%15%

35-4917%47%27%9%

50-6421%49%23%7%

65+20%63%14%4%

Female20%50%21%9%

Male19%53%19%10%

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

Winnipeg23%46%21%10%

Rest of MB14%61%17%8%

NDP PC Liberal Green

20%

52%

20%

9%

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And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

7%

19%

10%

5%

60%

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Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

NDP

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

64%28%8%

PC

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

76%16%8%

LIBERAL

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

55%28%17%

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And who would be your second choice? [MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]

NDP 32%

MLP 37%

GPC 4%

UD 27%

PC 17%

MLP 43%

GP 17%

UD 23%

PC 33%

NDP 43%

GP 9%

UD 15%

PC 36%

NDP 11%

MLP 33%

UD 21%

PC VOTERS NDP VOTERS

LIBERAL VOTERS GREEN PARTY VOTERS

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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-3413%23%10%11%43%

35-4911%28%16%4%42%

50-646%28%17%9%41%

65+8%27%17%11%37%

Female9%25%15%8%

42%

Male10%27%14%8%

40%


Winnipeg7%31%16%8%

38%

Rest of MB15%18%13%8%

46%

10%26%15%8%41%

10%

26%

15%8%

41%

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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?


18-3415%19%13%42%11%

35-498%19%23%40%11%

50-6410%17%18%43%13%

65+11%18%18%45%8%

Female13%19%18%38%13%

Male10%17%18%46%9%


Winnipeg12%22%19%37%11%

Rest of MB10%12%16%51%11%

11%18%18%42%11%

11%

18%

18%

42%

11%

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Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as PC Leader?


18-3423%25%9%

20%24%

35-4918%33%20%14%15%

50-6418%32%16%19%15%

65+28%37%17%10%9%

Female18%34%15%14%19%

Male25%28%15%19%14%


Winnipeg17%32%18%15%18%

Rest of MB28%29%10%19%14%

21%31%15%16%16%

21%

31%

15%

16%

16%

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

And, which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only]



Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

Strong SupporterMight Change Mind

Not Sure

And who would be your second choice?



Undecided

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

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ONLY WE CALLED

THE LIBERAL

MAJORITY.

Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week before we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in deance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a

political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet - Manitoba January 27