Upload
annora
View
19
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Overview. Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable. Steve Albon. Aims and Thematic Objectives. Integrative research based around Scotland’s Natural Resources. To help - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable
Steve Albon
Overview
Aims and Thematic Objectives
Integrative research based around Scotland’s Natural Resources
To help• determine key factors influencing function and resilience
and which link to sustainability of Scotland’s ‘quality’ brand.
• improve knowledge on hazard identification, the threat that various risks pose, and solutions to adapt and mitigate.
• develop appropriate balance of land use: agriculture/forestry, environmental services, recreation, tourism, wildlife refuge.
Addressing ‘Big’ Policy Issues
Sustainability of Rural Scotland
Protecting Biodiversity
Responding to Climate Change
Sustainable Development (SD) Guiding Principles
• Living within environmental limits
• Ensuring a healthy and just society
• Achieving a sustainable economy
• Promoting good governance • Using sound science
responsibly
Wise use of Environment
Social justice
Economic prosperity
SUSTAINABILITY
Environmental Science
Social Science
Economic Science
SUSTAINABILITY
Conceptual Frameworks for ‘SD’
Concept of resilience and adaptive cycles
(e.g. Gunderson and Holling, 2001)
Resilience: the capacity of a system to absorb perturbations and remain in a functionally similar state
Multiple stable states: a set of ‘functionally similar’ states for a system
Basins of attraction
Redrawn from Ritz et al 2003
PERTURB
RE
SP
ON
SE
TIME
RESILIENCE
RESISTANCE
Structure of Talk
• Background
• Responding to Climate Change– Conservation of soil
carbon
• Protecting Biodiversity– Species Loss– Habitat Loss
• Sustainable Rural Development– Values and attitudes
Our Approach
• Detecting change
• Understanding key drivers and mechanisms
• Stakeholder involvement
• Integrated Modelling
• Scenario analysis
• Supporting policy development
• Knowledge Exchange
1. Responding to Climate Change
Mid-Summer Day ChallengeCabinet Secretary for Finance
and Sustainable Growth John Swinney announced
“We will introduce a Scottish Climate Change Bill and consult on a mandatory long-term target to reduce our emissions by 80% by 2050”.
• equivalent to reductions of 3% each year.
• consult on proposals for targets based on average annual reductions over a 5 year period.
A Low Carbon Rural Economy?
Adaptation and mitigation challenges
• Rural - Urban connections: carbon (C) footprint of transport
• Land use change to reduce Green House Gas emissions
• Feasibility of biomass crop and renewable energy
• Practices to conserve C and/or sequester more C
Conservation of Soil Carbon
• Erosion (water and wind)• Floods and landslides• Decline soil organic matter
Loss of Soil Organic Matter
Survey in England and Wales found significant rate of loss of soil organic matter (SOM) (Bellamy et al 2005)
• Scotland no contemporary estimates of SOM but more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is being found in our lakes and rivers
Understanding Changes in DOC
• Increases seen in 80% of 160 sites in Scotland
• Trend consistent in space & time - climate driver – ToC
• But increase in rate varies within & between catchments
• Geology, Soils, Land Use?
Need Multi-disciplinary Science
Silica concentration
Nit
rate
co
nce
ntr
ati
on
Sources of flow
Latest Statistical Methods
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Date
Pro
po
rtio
n
OF GW SSF
25/4/00 26/4/00 27/4/00 28/4/00 30/4/00 1/5/00
Comparison of Proportions without Flow as a Covariate - 25/04/000
.00
.20
.40
.60
.8
Date
Pro
po
rtio
n
OF GW SSF
25/4/00 26/4/00 27/4/00 28/4/00 30/4/00 1/5/00
Comparison of Proportions with Flow as a Covariate - 25/04/00
National Soils Inventory Scotland
Is Soil Carbon Changing?
Key points:• Data captured 1978-1987• 5 km grid (2826 sites), analytical data at 10 km points (721 sites)• Objective site selection - area estimates• Scottish National Soils Archive
Monitoring Change in Soil C
To detect change
• in key soil properties e.g: carbon
• Compare sampling methods e.g: NSRI, CEH
• Test suitability of new indicators e.g: bulk density, porosity, measures of biodiversity
20 km re-sampling, similar to EU, as before aligned to OS Grid
2. Protecting Biodiversity
Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy
• Species and Habitat – halting loss
• People – raising awareness
• Landscapes & Ecosystems – enhancing biodiversity
• Integration and Coordination – framework for inclusion in all decision making
• Knowledge – best new and existing information for stakeholders
Reversing loss of biodiversity
Species solutions need research
Priority Species for Action
Freshwater Pearl Mussel
Woolly Willow Salix lanata
Small Cow Wheat Melampyrum sylvaticum
Across Scotland area heather moor reduced by 25% since 1945
Habitat loss & Landscape change
Expansion of forestry
Mammalian herbivores can be landscape engineers
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
West Grampian, 20020
20
60
04
0 n = 969
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
South Ross, 2000
02
06
00
40 n = 2041
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Gairloch, 1998
020
600
40
n = 2651
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
North Ross, 2001
02
06
00
40 n = 819
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
West Sutherland, 2000
02
06
00
40 n = 836
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Midwest, 2003
02
06
00
40 n = 719
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
South Loch Tay, 1998
02
06
00
40 n = 3437
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Northern, 1999
02
06
00
40 n = 1182
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
East Sutherland, 2000
02
06
00
40 n = 972
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Cairngorm-Speyside, 1997
02
06
00
40 n = 2072
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Angus, 1999
02
06
00
40 n = 1067
How Grazing Impact Varies
and which species?
Also cattle, rabbits, mountain hare, red grouse
-0
.10
.10
.3
Me
an
Ch
an
ge
in
Pro
ba
bility
Sheep Cattle Rabbits Hares Deer Grouse-0
.10
.10
.3
Me
dia
n C
ha
ng
e in
Pro
ba
bility
Sheep Cattle Rabbits Hares Deer Grouse
M
ed
ian
pre
dic
ted
im
pact
Impact varies with species
And density
R2 = 0.2845
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Deer density km-2
Imp
act
Sco
re
Coarse grassland
R2 = 0.6891
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Deer density km-2
Im
pac
t S
core
Dwarf-shrub heath
3. Sustainable Rural Development
• What sort of landscape do we want?
• Can we mitigate unwanted change?
• How can we adapt our demands to ensure the viability of rural livelihoods?
Diversification for ‘SD’
Scientific American
Stewardship payments• Maintaining biodiversity
• Carbon conservation – in particular soil C
• Renewable power
• Sustainable timber
• Water resources – pollution and flood control
• Food security - premium
Human-Environment Interactions
Societal values
HUMAN DIMENSION
ECOLOGICAL DIMENSION
Structures Processes
Ecosystem functions
Boundary conditions
What are key threats to resource & do we understand change processes?
What do people value about a resource and the changes to it?
• Provisioning services– benefits from provision
food, fibre or fuel• Regulating services
– benefits from erosion control, water purification
• Cultural services – benefits related to
recreation
Eco
syst
em s
ervi
ces
What are relevant issues that emerge from the interaction?
Values, Attitudes and Behaviour
Beliefs/Values
AttitudesFocus Groups• Mountaineers
• Birdwatchers• Tourists
– within Scotland– outside
Scotland• Local residents• Foresters• Farmers
Human-Nature relationship
“sense of place”
Values attributed to ‘balance’ of
natureBenefits & function of biodiversity
• Emerging issues not based on expert knowledge alone, explicitly include ‘lay’ stakeholders’ perceptions
• Lay stakeholders’ understanding contingent on translation process and perception, prior knowledge and experience
• Not all ecosystem functions easily ‘translatable’ to allow lay stakeholders to make meaningful value judgements!
• General view on biodiversity management
• Specific attitude towards particular measures
Institutions and Property Rights
Feasibility of Exclusion YES NO
Riv
alr
y in
con
su
mp
tion
YES
NO
• Sheep farm• Estate quarry
• Deer population
• Crofter’s grazings
• Landscape
Private Common Pool
Club
Public
Interactions with Governance • Economic – market orientated
• Regulatory - fines
• Voluntary - cooperation
Stakeholder Involvement
• Who is currently involved?
• What interest do they represent?
• How is their involvement shaping the plan?
• How can conflicts of interest be resolved ?
• Innovative, interactive process – see this afternoon’s workshop!
Summary: Science Integral to ‘SD’
Programme 3
Environmental
Economic
Social
Analys
ing
Change
Knowledge
of Processes
Reduce Uncertainty
Stakeholder Involvement
Evalu
atin
g
Policy
Development of Indicators
Developing
Intervention
Strategies
Scenario analysis
Acknowledgements
Work Package CoordinatorsHelaina BlackIain BrownAlison HesterRupert HoughSimon LanganKeith MatthewsRobin PakemanAlan RenwickAndy Vinten
Speakers & Workshop Facilitators
Kirsty BlackstockColin CampbellBob FerrierAlison HesterWendy KenyonAlan Renwick
Graphics & LogisticsJohn BrownPat CarnegieJane LundLorraine Robertson
All the Poster authors/presenters
Staff of Main Research ProvidersProgramme 3 Advisory Board
Michael Usher, Maggie Gill and Ian Bainbridge