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Making sense of the 2014
European Parliament electionsMichiel van Hulten, Managing Director, VoteWatch Europe
Eurocommerce, Brussels, 28 May 2014
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Our final prediction
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Provisional results2009 2014
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Profit-loss accountGroup Net gain/loss
EPP 61
S&D 5
ALDE 19
Greens/EFA 5
ECR 11
GUE/NGL 7
EFD 7
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Key characteristics
Turnout stabilised at 43% after continuous decline since 1979
Numbers shift from the centre to the extremes (especially on the right)
No fundamental change in left-right balance
No longer one single dominant political group
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Group formation
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Balance of power - EPP
FR, IT, ES downDE, PL , CZ upDE remains largest
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Balance of power – S&D
CZ, GR, HU, PL downDE, IT, RO, UK upIT largest
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Balance of power - ALDE
DE, UK down HR, CZ, DK, ET, FI, FR, GR, HU, LI, NL, SK, ES up ES largest
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Key post-election steps
Nomination of Commission President Formation of EP political groups Election of EP political group leaders Election of EP President and V-Ps Election of Committee Chairs Election of Commission President Nomination of new Commissioners,
hearing, confirmation vote
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Policy impact
Less support for strengthening EU and EP powers
No centre-left or centre-right majority, but attendance could have big impact
Probably no far right group, but lots of far right MEPs
Hemicycle arithmetic forces mainstream parties to work together
Majorities more volatile
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Old EP New EP Difference
EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.6 -8.5EPP + S&D 61.4 54.7 -6.7
Old EP New EP Difference
EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 13.6 +5.2ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 20.6 +4.8(ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 27.6 +7.2
PRO-EU
ANTI-EU
Possible coalitions (%)
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Centre-right
Centre-left
Old EP New EP Difference
EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.4 -8.2EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 46.9 -7.1
Old EP New EP Difference
S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 39.6 +2.0(S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 48.5 +0.1
Possible coalitions (%)
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Economy
• Less support for austerity• More calls for public spending• Push for tax harmonisation?• More regulation of the financial
sector
Policy impact
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Trade and internal market
• Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP
• Greater resistance to strengthening the internal market for services
Policy impact
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Energy
•Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role• Shale gas and oil exploration – EP
majority likely positive• Support for pan-EU energy
infrastructure
Policy impact
Michiel van Hulten, Managing Director [email protected]
www.votewatch.eu @VoteWatchEurope/VoteWatchEurope