Upload
beverly-warren
View
216
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Making the Most of the Global Economic ParadoxAFLA
September 14, 2006
The Competition for Natural Resources
Limited Industrialization
Global Development
Global Industrialization
Limited Development
Equal Learning
A pipeline sonogram. Walls with less than 20 percent of their original thickness are flagged. Scott Horsley/NPR
Related Stories
• RELATED STORIESOversight of Prudhoe Bay questioned by state leaders• To pig or not to pig? — BP’s big question • US regulators look to tighten oil pipeline rules• BP officials apologize for shutting down Prudhoe Bay• BP pipeline woes 'preventable,' environmentalists say
Associated Press
Trade Deficits
Continental Integration
NAFTA, CAFTA, etc.
Europe has remained largely steady on the path toward greater continental integration. The European Union (EU) admitted ten new members on May 1, 2004, bringing its total membership to twenty-five countries. These new members are Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
Romania and Bulgaria are tentatively scheduled to join in 2007, while preliminary membership talks are set to begin with Turkey and Croatia.
http:www.southerncenter.org
The Future of Knowledge Workers
Graphical Order Configurators
Help the customer describe what they want and then translate accurately to manufacturing or distribution
Real Time Scheduling
Once you have a batch of orders, you need a way to schedule manufacturing to optimize production
Object oriented, memory resident programs that model manufacturing processes and their constraints that quickly produce an optimized manufacturing schedules
Technology
Shop Floor Flexibility
Combine real time production with modular product designs and small, flexible assembly teams
A networked client-server product that controls the sequences of operations and queues of materials on the shop floor and links with ERP systems
Technology
Customized Engineering
A custom design change can force a quick product engineering change
Sits between MRP and CAD systems to manage changes real time
Technology
Demand- Driven Logistics
Logistics - getting the right quantity of product to the right customer in the right form at the right time
Create customer specific profiles and track the flow of product
Technology
Linking to Suppliers
EDI
Bar Coding
E-Mail / The Internet
EFT
Seamless integration of customers, distributors, manufacturers. The opportunities for service improvement will be tremendous.
Technology
Composition of GDP
Governmentspending - 19%
CapitalSpending -16%
ConsumerSpending -70
Other - 5%
Composition of Consumer Spending (PCE*)
* Personal Consumption Expenditures
Durable Goods- 12%
Nondurablegoods - 29%
Services - 59%
The Reports on Business
• Surveying manufacturing since 1931• Over 350 respondents
• 20 SIC Codes
• Weighted by contribution to GDP
• 70% response rate
• Nonmanufacturing started in June 1997
The Reports on Business
• A series of diffusion indexes measuring
change from month to month
• Above 50% indicates growth
• Below 50% indicates contraction
• 50% is the breakeven or “no change”
Economics and Calculus
The Rate of UP is DOWN
50 %
The Rate of DOWN is UP
50 %
Manufacturing PMI - 54.5 (Sep)Non-manufacturing BAI - 57.0 (Sep)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan-
03
Mar
-03
May
-03
Jul-0
3
Sep-0
3
Nov-0
3
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-0
4
Nov-0
4
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-0
5
Nov-0
5
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep-0
6
Nov-0
6
Jan-
07
PMI BAI
Manufacturing New Orders August 2006 Index: 54.2
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan-
03
Apr-0
3
Jul-0
3
Oct-03
Jan-
04
Apr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct-04
Jan-
05
Apr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct-05
Jan-
06
Apr-0
6
Jul-0
6
Oct-06
Jan-
07
Apr-0
7
Jul-0
7
New Orders 3 Month Moving Avg
Manufacturing Production August 2006 Index: 56.6
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan-
03
Apr-0
3
Jul-0
3
Oct-03
Jan-
04
Apr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct-04
Jan-
05
Apr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct-05
Jan-
06
Apr-0
6
Jul-0
6
Oct-06
Jan-
07
Production 3 Month Moving Avg
Manufacturing EmploymentAugust 2006 Index: 54.0
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Jan-
03
Apr-0
3
Jul-0
3
Oct-03
Jan-
04
Apr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct-04
Jan-
05
Apr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct-05
Jan-
06
Apr-0
6
Jul-0
6
Oct-06
Jan-
07
Employment 3 Month Moving Avg
Manufacturing Inventory to Sales Ratio(New Orders - Inventories)
August 2006: +4.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
The recent trend is that new order growth has slowed and inventories have accelerated.
Manufacturing Prices vs Supplier Deliveries
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-
01
Apr-0
1
Jul-0
1
Oct-01
Jan-
02
Apr-0
2
Jul-0
2
Oct-02
Jan-
03
Apr-0
3
Jul-0
3
Oct-03
Jan-
04
Apr-0
4
Jul-0
4
Oct-04
Jan-
05
Apr-0
5
Jul-0
5
Oct-05
Jan-
06
Apr-0
6
Jul-0
6
Oct-06
Jan-
07
Supplier Deliveries Prices
Pricing Power is created by Slowing Supplier Deliveries
ECONOMICS 1011. The Law of Abundance vs the Law of Scarcity
2. Currency rates are more important than interest rates
3. Technology and Services drive the economy
4. Over time the economy solves its own problems
5. There are winners and losers in every economic scenario; how losers are compensated is as important as how winners are rewarded
6. All things in nature, the faster they grow the faster they die
7. Most of what we regard as objective is really subjective
8. Human beings are not wholly, or in some cases, even substantially rational
9. Uncertainty is the norm; certainty is the exception
10. Large parts of what we know are wrong; we just don’t know which parts