Male Meeting, Oct.,2007Mohan et. al, IIT INDIA 11 Preparation and Validation of Emission Inventory of Air Pollutants over Megacity Delhi Manju Mohan, Lalit

11 Male Meeting, Oct.,2007

Mohan et. al, IIT INDIA 11

Preparation and Validation of Emission Preparation and Validation of Emission Inventory of Air Pollutants over Megacity Inventory of Air Pollutants over Megacity

DelhiDelhi

Manju Mohan, Lalit DagarManju Mohan, Lalit DagarCentre for Atmospheric Sciences,Centre for Atmospheric Sciences,

Indian Institute of Technology, New DelhiIndian Institute of Technology, New Delhi

email: [email protected]: [email protected]

B.R. GurjarB.R. Gurjar Department of Civil Engineering,Department of Civil Engineering,

Indian Institute of Technology, Indian Institute of Technology, RoorkeeRoorkee

&



IntroductionIntroduction

Emission inventory is useful for air pollution Emission inventory is useful for air pollution control measurescontrol measures

It is also essential for air quality modelingIt is also essential for air quality modeling



ObjectivesObjectives

To prepare emission inventory for total To prepare emission inventory for total emissions of criteria pollutants, greenhouse emissions of criteria pollutants, greenhouse gases and ozone precursors in the city of Delhi.gases and ozone precursors in the city of Delhi.

The study area Delhi is located at 28.53’ N, 76.20’ E.

Further, based on the total emissions of the city, Further, based on the total emissions of the city, to estimate gridded emissions of criteria air to estimate gridded emissions of criteria air pollutants for air quality assessment in the citypollutants for air quality assessment in the city

Finally, the validation of the gridded emissionsFinally, the validation of the gridded emissions


Mohan et. al, IIT INDIA

STUDY AREA



Source 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01

Industrial 56% 40% 29% 20%

Vehicular 23% 42% 64% 72%

Domestic 21% 18% 7% 8%

Decade-wise Trend of Distribution of Various Sources

Significant increase in Vehicular emissions in 3 decadesSignificant dec. in industrial and domestic emissions in this period



Emission Estimates for Greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and Particulate Matter

(1990-2000) for mega-city Delhi

Existing inventories focus only on a particular pollutant Existing inventories focus only on a particular pollutant (s), emission source, sector or a year(s), emission source, sector or a year

Therefore, a comprehensive EI presented in support of Therefore, a comprehensive EI presented in support of air quality, atmospheric chemistry and climate studies.air quality, atmospheric chemistry and climate studies.

CHCH4,4,NN22O,NHO,NH33,NMVOC,NO,NMVOC,NO22,SO,SO2 2 and TSP have been and TSP have been estimated annually from 1990-2000.estimated annually from 1990-2000.

Source categories are: PP, domestic, agriculture, waste treatment, transport and industrial processes.



Emission Trends

Power plants are main source of SO2 and TSP and CO2

followed by the transport sector. However, in case of

CO2 domestic sector also contribute sufficiently

Transport sector was the largest source for NOx, CO and NMVOC

CH4 is mainly emitted from solid waste disposal while Agriculture is the largest source of NH3 and N2O.

It is also found that NOx emissions are still increasing and TSP significantly violates the permissible limits.









Gridded Emission Inventory of Criteria Air Gridded Emission Inventory of Criteria Air Pollutants and Identification of Emission Pollutants and Identification of Emission

Hotspots for Megacity DelhiHotspots for Megacity Delhi



Atmospheric emission inventories are important tools for air pollution modelling and environmental decision making.

An inventory provides information on the type of emission source and on the spatial and temporal variability of the respective emission.

Emissions are estimated specifically for individual air pollutants, classes of pollutants or for other substances affecting the atmosphere’s properties.

Gridded Emission InventoryGridded Emission Inventory



A Gridded Emission inventory of the following pollutants is prepared:

SO2

NOx

PM CO

Validation of the emissions of these criteria pollutants is performed from air quality monitoring network of CPCB

Gridded Inventory



There are two ways of forming emission inventories: Top-down approach Bottom-up approach

In the present study, a Top-down approach has been applied.

The topdown approach applies the concept to a larger area, where statistical data may be more readily available

Emissions are first calculated for the total area, and only subsequently distributed within the respective area using surrogate information and downscaling methods.

Gridded Emission Inventory: Gridded Emission Inventory: MethodologyMethodology



The analysis area is divided uniformly into 173 grids of 2km x 2km grid size.

This study is based on emission data of 11 years i.e., 1990-2000.

Emissions from Power plants, transportation, industries, domestic and waste has been considered.

Gridded Emission Inventory: Gridded Emission Inventory: MethodologyMethodology



Methodology

A Gaussian model was used to study the dispersion from these (TPP) point sources and accordingly appropriate weights were imparted to adjacent zones.

Weights were also allocated to industrial emission coming from residential grids.

Emission contours for each pollutants were drawn for all 11 years in order to identify the emission hotspots.



0 5 10 15 200

5

10

15

20

25

(km

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

(km )

C O -1990

9

ITO

CP

AIIMS

MANGOLPURI

SHAHADRA

MATHURA RD

ROHTAK RD.

0 5 10 15 2 00

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

(km

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

(km )

9

C O -1 996

KAROL BAGH

MODEL TOWN

OKHLA

BADARPUR

0 5 10 15 20 (km )0

5

10

15

20

25(k

m)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

CO -20009

VASANT VIHAR

GURGAON RD

CO

Emission

Isopleths



0 5 1 0 1 5 2 00

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

(km

)

00.20.4

0.60.811.21.41.61.822.22.4

2.62.8

3 . 0

P M -1 9 9 0

(km )

ITO

IG

CP

0 5 10 1 5 200

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

(km

)

00 .20 .40 .60 .811 .21 .41 .61 .822 .22 .42 .62 .8

PM-1996

(km)

3.0

MANGOLPURI

KAROL BAGH

SHAHADRA

AIIMS

BADARPUR

0 5 10 15 200

5

10

15

20

25

(km

)

00.20.40.60 .811.21.41.61 .822.22.42.62 .8

P M -2 000

(km )

3 . 0

PM

Emission

Isopleths



0 5 10 15 200

5

10

15

20

25

(km

)

0

0.2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

1

1.2

1 .4

1 .6

1 .8

2

2.2

2 .4

2 .6

N O x-19902.8

(km )

ITO SHAHADRA

NARAINA

MANGOLPURI

AIIMS

0 5 1 0 15 2 00

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

(km

)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

(km )

2 .8

N O x-1996

MODEL TOWN

KAROL BAGH

PATPARGANJ

UTTAM NAGAR

BADARPUR

0 5 10 15 200

5

10

15

20

25

(km

)

0

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

1

1 .2

1 .4

1 .6

1 .8

2

2 .2

2 .4

2 .6

(km )

NOx-20002 .8

NOx

Emission

Isopleths



0 5 1 0 15 200

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

(km

)

0

0 .2

0 .4

0 .6

0 .8

1

1 .2

1 .4

1 .6

1 .8

2

SO 2-1990

(km )

2.2

ITO

CP

IG

BADARPUR

0 5 10 15 200

5

10

15

20

25

(km

)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

S O 2 -19 96

(km )

2 .2

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 00

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

(km

)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

(km )

S O 2-20002 .2

MODEL TOWN

MANGOLPURI

KAROL BAGH

SHAHADRA

AIIMS

SO2

Emission

Isopleths



Pollutant CO PM NOx SO2

Primaryhotspots

• Mangolpuri• ITO• CP• Shahadra• AIIMS(> 4 Gg)

• ITO• CP,• India Gate(> 2.2 Gg)

• Mangolpuri• ITO• Shahadra• AIIMS• Naraina(> 2 Gg)

• ITO• India Gate• Badarpur• CP(> 1.5 Gg)

Secondaryhotspots

• Karolbagh• Model Town• Badarpur, • Okhla• Vasant

Vihar• Gurgaon

Road(2.5- 4 Gg)

• Karolbagh, • Shahadra• AIIMS• Badarpur,• Mangolpuri(1- 2.2 Gg)

• Karolbagh• Model Town• Okhla• Badarpur• Vasant Vihar• Gurgaon

Road• Patparganj• Uttam Nagar( 1-2 Gg)

• Karolbagh• Shahadra• AIIMS• Mangolpuri• Model

Town(0.8- 1.5 Gg)



Validation Emission from each grid is associated to the

available CPCB observational sites.

The analysis area is divided into 7 zones according to the available observational sites.

This was done in order to associate emission from each grid with the corresponding observational site.

The boundaries of the 7 zones have been approximated by using stair-step grid structure.

Validation of these emission estimates was done with CPCB concentration values.

Station wise and Year wise comparison of Average Emission and Concentration is done.



Distribution of Analysis Area using Voronoi Polygon Technique



Air Quality Monitoring Stations in Delhi



SO2

y = 12.85x + 9.5677

R2 = 0.4704

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Average Emission

Co

ncen

trati

on

SO2

Linear (SO2)

Average Emission vs Concentration

NOx

y = 26.819x + 11.534

R2 = 0.5987

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Average Emission

Co

ncen

trati

on

NOx

Linear (NOx)



CO

y = 543.98x + 1996.2

R2 = 0.6766

200025003000350040004500500055006000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Average Emission

Co

ncen

trati

on

CO

Linear (CO)

PMy = 61.742x + 317.17

R2 = 0.3385

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Average Emission

Co

ncen

trati

on

PM

Linear (PM)

Average Emission vs Concentration



Pollutant Correlation Coefficient, r

SO2 0.6859

NOX 0.7738

PM 0.5818

CO 0.8226

The Relationship between Predicted Emission of Each Pollutant and Observed Concentration



Emission Trends in Seven Sampling Stations, 1990-2000





Conclusions The emission trends show that emissions in megacity

Delhi are partly associated with a strong interannual variability based on introduction of control measures, fuel shifts, changes in agricultural practice, increase in the vehicle fleet or problems within the power generation sector.

A good correlation for the estimated emission inventory is obtained that shows a reasonable validation.

Different approaches can be used for validation with the availability of more data.



Estimation of Environmental Impact due to Sulfur dioxide Emission from Thermal Power

Plants in IndiaManju Mohan and A Azohni*

,

Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi-110016

INDIA

*formerly M.Tech. Studennt



Although there has been a noticeable reduction in the pollution level of SO2 and CO but still a lot needs to be done for NOx and PM those remains above the prescribed standards.

Decrease in some of the pollutants has been witnessed but the prototype/blueprint of the polluting areas remains the same i.e., the areas of high pollution still remains intact and follows the same pattern.

Thus, the emission trends and air quality analysis reveal that the impact of several control measures is not very large.

Conclusions (contd..)



Objectives

Estimation of emission, concentration and deposition.

To locate the regions of high concentration and deposition.

Identification of power plants depositing sulfur at vulnerable ecosystems.



Thermal Power Plants in India

• There are about 83 coal fired thermal power plants in India.

• 47 Thermal power plants all of which are more than 300 MW are being considered



The RAINS-Asia

Developed by IIASA through the funding of WB and ADB.

Estimates the present and future sulfur emissions.

Atmospheric dispersion of SO2,, Concentration and Deposition.

Impacts of emission control measures on regional sulfur deposition and SO2 concentrations levels.



Locations of Emissions



SO2 EmissionsSO2 emissions in 2005 (Current Senario)

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

power plants

SO

2 e

mis

sio

ns i

n k

t/year



SO2 Concentrations 2000



Concentrations 2005



Highest Concentrations

Highest at 82E Long and 24N Lat (Siddhi, Jiawan, Waldhan, Rewa) 26.5409 µg/m3.

TPPs Contributes 24.6045 µg/m3 which makes 92.7%.

Highest contribution, Singrauli 10.91 µg/m3 (41.12% )

TPPs Total 24.6ug/m3 92.7%

Other Area

sources, 1.94, 7%

Vindhiachal, 2.38,

9%

Anpara, 4.00, 15%

Orba, 4.61, 17%Rihand,

2.70, 10%

Singrauli, 10.91, 42%



Highest Concentrations

82E Longitude and 22N Latitude, (Chhattisgarh) Bilaspur, Korba Katgora and Janjgir. 22.12166 µg/m3

Main Source Korba STPS (14.47051 µg/m3)

Other Area

Souces, 1.51,

7%

Korba STPS,

14.47, 66%

Korba West,

5.89, 27%

Vindhiachal,

0.10, 0%

Orba, 0.01, 0%

Rihand, 0.04,

0%

Singrauli

STPS, 0.11, 0%



Concentrations

Observation v/s Predicted

0

10

20

30

40

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39

Monitoring Stations

Co

ncen

trati

on

s in

ug

/m3

Observed Predicted TPPs



Concentrations at monitoring Stations

Sl. No.

City Long Lat CPCB

(ug/m3)

Cumulative Concn

(ug/m3)

Major TPPs

(Ug/m3)

% of Major TPPs

contribution

1 Agra 78°02'E 27°11'E 9.250 4.447 0.377 8.482 2 Alwar 76°38'E 27°34'N 16.830 3.096 0.348 11.255 3 Amhedabad 72°37'E 23°02'N 8.430 9.914 6.911 69.710 4 Angul 85°05'E 20°48'N 5.600 6.252 3.644 58.282 5 Bangalore 77°56'E 12°57'N 20.730 6.176 3.468 56.150 6 Chennai 80°18'E 13°05'N 10.580 9.219 4.038 43.799 7 Coimbatore 77°05'E 11°06'N 5.500 3.666 3.105 84.692 8 Damtal 76°02'E 32°05'N 0.350 1.165 0.114 9.762 9 Delhi 77°47'E 28°38'N 15.160 22.580 13.978 61.904

10 Dhanbad 85°25'E 23°50'N 16.500 15.167 12.893 85.007 11 Faridabad 77°18'E 28°25'N 36.500 22.584 13.978 61.893 12 Gaziabad 77°25' E 28°40'N 32.600 22.584 13.978 61.893 13 Goa 73°49'E 15°20'N 3.550 0.584 0.000 0.000 14 Gobindgar 76°18'E 30°41'N 13.000 10.662 4.228 39.651 15 Guwahati 91°44'E 26°10'N 6.800 1.192 0.000 0.000 16 Haldia 88°18'E 22°32'N 25.200 12.086 5.467 45.236 17 Hawrah 88°20'E 22°30'N 12.000 12.086 5.467 45.236 18 Hyderabad 78°47'E 17°39'N 12.420 7.470 0.558 7.475 19 Indore 75°54'E 22°42'N 19.200 6.933 0.791 11.409



Concentrations at monitoring Stations20 Jaipur 75°02'E 28°00'N 17.500 8.047 0.131 1.633 21 Jalandhar 75°18'E 31°19'N 21.270 20.899 2.920 13.972 22 Kanpur 80°24'E 26°28'N 18.110 3.698 0.000 0.000 23 Kolkotta 88°22'E 22°32'N 15.230 12.086 5.467 45.236 24 Kota 75°52'E 25°10'N 6.400 2.415 1.279 52.936 25 Lucknow 80°54'E 26°50'E 16.670 3.698 0.000 0.000 26 Ludhiana 75°54'E 30°55'N 11.600 20.899 13.443 64.324 27 Mumbai 72°52'E 18°56'N 9.870 8.927 6.331 70.917 28 Mysore 76°42'E 12°18'N 10.733 6.176 0.312 5.050 29 Nagpur 79°12'E 21°10'N 6.700 5.952 3.732 62.694 30 Patna 85°12'E 25°37'N 18.400 5.138 0.027 0.525 31 Pondicherry 79°45'E 11°55'N 16.867 15.794 12.359 78.251 32 Rourkela 86°54'E 21°30'N 16.600 12.412 0.557 4.488 33 Shillong 91°53'E 25°34'N 1.200 0.746 0.000 0.000 34 Shimla 77°11'E 30°44'N 2.700 5.360 0.182 3.394 35 Solapur 75°54'E 18°04'N 19.200 7.284 3.107 42.658 36 Talcher 85°15'E 20°48'N 5.600 6.252 3.644 58.282 37 Tuticorin 78°13'E 8°45'N 17.000 1.224 0.000 0.000 38 Udaipur 75°33'E 27°42'N 10.730 1.684 0.000 0.000 39 Vishakhapatnam 83°24'E 17°42'N 16.300 0.999 0.163 16.326



Concentrations

Observed SO2 v/s PredictedR2 = 0.3509

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Obsereved (ug/m3)

Pre

dic

ted

(u

g/m

3)

Observed- CPCBPredicted- RAINS



Regions of High Deposition

Cumulative City/Town Long Lat mg/m2-yr

Major TTPs

% Contr by TPPs

Tamluk, Haldia Egra, Kolkata (WB) 88 22 1432.9 365.34 25.497 Baripada (Orissa) 87 22 1157.2 430.11 37.168 Mumbai 72 19 1104.3 51.06 4.624 Bhagalpur, banka (Bihar) Godda (Jharkhand) 87 25 1333.5 601.82 45.131 Bankaru, Bishnupur (WB) 87 23 1062.3 344.56 32.435 Delhi NCR 77 28 982.34 271.1 27.597



Conclusions

The present scenario is not so alarming- most part of the country below critical level.

But if the current rate of fuel consumption increase, it could create havoc to our ecology.

Though the power plants contribute a very high percentage of SO2 concentrations at many locations, deposition at Critical ecosystem is not much due to TPP



Documents

Male Meeting, Oct.,2007Mohan et. al, IIT INDIA 11 Preparation and Validation of Emission Inventory of Air Pollutants over Megacity Delhi Manju Mohan, Lalit