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© Man 2016
Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equity
EM Equity: Beyond the Bearish Consensus
9th March 2016
For Trends & Morningstar Investment Summit. Not for onward distribution.
Experienced managers in an optimal investment environment
Highly experienced investment team
2
Investment team
© Man 2016
Key benefits of running the Fund on the GLG platform
• Independent risk control
• Systems architecture facilitates sourcing
and automation of data
• Cutting edge proprietary/non proprietary
trading systems run by a large team of
experienced professionals
Risk management and operational
infrastructure
• Collaboration with over 40 sector or
regional specialists based in New York,
London, Dubai and Hong Kong
• Company meetings and broker visits
shared across investment teams
• Real-time internal chat system facilitates
idea sharing
Collaborative culture
• Complete responsibility for investment
process
• Unconstrained by house view
• GLG culture embraces both absolute-
return and long-only strategies
Independence
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Simon Pickard
Portfolio Manager
Edward Cole
Portfolio Manager
Jupiter
Portfolio manager, Emerging
Europe
Carmignac Gestion
Head of European Equities
Carmignac
Gestion
Portfolio
Manager, EM
Carmignac Gestion
Head of Emerging Markets
Man
GLG
Man
GLG
Finisterre
L/S
manager
Newsmith
L/S manager
Argos
Manager, European
Equities
Ashmore
Portfolio manager, EMEA
JP Morgan, Unicredit/ Raiffeisen
Equity strategist, EM
Key fund characteristics
3
Introduction
© Man 2016
Mid-to-large cap Long equity
emerging markets
Aim for high active share and high tracking error, can hold 10% cash Unconstrained by
benchmark
Rigorous and consistent process provides a framework for judgment-based joint
management
Process
consistency
Aim for higher return on capital, better balance sheet and better cash-flow valuation Quality growth at a
reasonable price
Portfolio managers are significant investors in the Fund Alignment of
interest
Only one strategy, containing about 50 liquid stocks with low turnover Concentrated
and liquid
Source: FactSet, CLSA. Note: 1) ROIC, net debt to EBITDA, net debt to equity and FCF yield are bottom-up aggregated excluding financials 2) Dividend yield, PE, PB and EV/EBITDA are calculated based on FCF yield, div yield, earnings yield, book yield and EBITDA/EV with portfolio & MSCI EM weight adjusted. The negative numbers for Net debt/EBITDA and Net debt/equity implies that the portfolio is in a net cash position.
* MSCI Emerging Markets TR Index
4 © Man 2016
Portfolio characteristics
Valuation and fundamental factors as at 11 February 2016
-0.500000
-0.300000
-0.100000
0.100000
0.300000
0.500000Value
Growth
Momentum
Financial LeverageSize
Volatility
Liquidity
Portfolio Benchmark*Portfolio Benchmark*
ROIC 2014 (%) 24.3 8.5
Net debt (cash) / EBITDA
(2014,x) (0.2) 1.4
Net debt (cash) / equity (2014,%) (7.2) 37.6
FCF yield 12-month fwd (%) 7.2 5.1
Dividend yield 12-month fwd
(%) 3.4 3.3
P/E 12-month fwd (x) 12.8 10.6
P/B 12-month fwd (x) 2.2 1.1
EV/EBITDA 12-month fwd (x) 7.5 6.4
The accumulation of leverage is a headwind for EM
growth as the growth in global liquidity moderates
At a country level, our process rewards economies
with lower debt stocks, and the means to finance
growth domestically – we are significantly more
wary of Turkey and Indonesia, where foreigners
own 30-40% of local currency debt, than we are
China, where domestic savings are profound.
At a stock level, our process rewards companies
that are self-financing and where balance sheets
are clean – in aggregate, our portfolio is net cash
June 1993 to June 2015
Source: UBS
5
EM - domestic credit/GDP
© Man 2015
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140% Rationale
Easy monetary conditions globally since
2008 have fuelled growth in leverage, not
deleveraging. Emerging economies have
been at the forefront of the growth in
leverage, with the stock growing by >40%
since 2008
Current view
Breakdown of China’s capital and financial account balance
Source: Gavekal Data, Macrobond
6
Most capital outflows come from ‘other investment’, i.e. debt
© Man 2016
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US
D,
billio
ns
Financial derivatives, net
Portfolio investment,net
Other investment, net
Direct investment, net
Total capital account
Source: Emerging Advisors Group Limited
7
EM banking sector vulnerability
© Man 2016
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Credit/deposit ratio (%)
Bank NFA position (% of assets)
THA
MEX BRA
KAZ
EST
LIT
ROM
HUN
SLO RUS
ARG UAE
TUR
BUL
KOR
INDO
CHINA 2009
CHINA 2015
EM AVG 2009
EM AVG 2015
MSCI Asia ex-Japan (ex-finance)
December 1997 to December 2015
Source: FactSet, CLSA
8
Bottom-up sales growth and EBITDA margins
© Man 2016
Rationale
In general, emerging market companies
are highly sensitive to top-line growth due
to operational gearing.
In our view, sales growth and margin
expansion is the ideal scenario for
emerging market returns
Current view
Top-line growth has been extremely weak
in recent years – a key reason for EM
equities’ relative weakness
There have been tentative signs of margin
turnaround which will provide a tailwind
once top-line recovers
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Sales growth EBITDA margin (RHS)
Actual Expected
November 2002 to January 2016
Source: Bloomberg.
Inflation / deflation indicators vs. EM returns: regression model
9
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 'fair value' Rationale
The ‘fair value’ line is composed of 3
simple indicators : the copper price,
corporate spreads and inflation
breakevens. There is a good correlation
between this and EM $ index returns.
We use this as a component for judging
overall exposure levels
Current view
EM equities were highly ‘overvalued’
throughout 2014 and much of 2015.
However, much of this has now
corrected.
Risk/reward gap is reasonably
favourable on a short-term view, even if
the market remains highly deflationary.
© Man 2016
January 1990 to December 2015
Source: Haver, Thomson Reuters
10
EM - price to trend earnings
© Man 2016
0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
35x
40x
45x
EM - price to trend earnings ratio
Rationale
Generic index valuation is unhelpful for
short-term returns but useful for judging
potential for long-term returns in EM
Cyclicality in emerging market index
composition can make short-term
aggregate valuation measures misleading
Current view
EM has been derating versus trend
earnings since 2008.
The cyclically-adjusted PE ratio is now
cheaper than at any time since the early
1990s
1
10
100
1000
10000
20
60
100
Source: GLG Partners LP
11
MSCI Emerging Markets Capitulation Indicator
Rationale
We measure percentage of down days
over a trailing period
>60% down days reflects capitulatory
price action
Hit rate is 98% for positive returns over 12
months
Current view
A ‘buy’ signal was triggered at end-
August, only the eighth in 26 years
Typically, there is further downside
between the initial buy signal and
subsequent trough – an average of 16%
over 37 days
Caution is still warranted, but risk/reward
is becoming more favourable
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
do
wn
da
ys
in
tra
ilin
g p
eri
od
MS
CI E
me
rgin
g M
ark
ets
Ind
ex
(log
sc
ale
)
December 1989 to January 2016
© Man 2016
Snapshot as at 31 January 2016
Source: GLG Partners LP The organisations and/or financial instruments mentioned are for reference purposes only. The content of this material should not be construed as a recommendation for their purchase or sale.
12
Portfolio characteristics
Sector Absolute
weight
Relative
weight
Information Technology 24.60% 3.86%
Financials 14.28% -12.78%
Banks 3.87% -12.28%
Other Financials 10.41% -0.50%
Consumer Discretionary 14.22% 4.32%
Industrials 12.26% 5.24%
Consumer Staples 12.16% 3.54%
Materials 7.67% 1.64%
Energy 3.17% -4.16%
Health Care 2.90% -0.10%
Utilities 2.24% -0.97%
Telecommunication Services 0.00% -7.10%
Region Absolute
weight
Relative
weight
China 22.52% -2.29%
Onshore 11.65% 8.91%
Offshore 10.87% -11.19%
India 17.01% 8.34%
Taiwan 10.03% -2.32%
Korea (South) 7.65% -8.08%
Mexico 6.29% 1.72%
Israel 5.94% 5.94%
South Africa 4.67% -1.89%
Brazil 4.37% -1.05%
Russian Federation 3.42% -0.21%
United States 2.96% 2.96%
Japan 2.58% 2.58%
United Kingdom 2.23% 2.23%
Hong Kong 2.13% 1.46%
Pakistan 1.75% 1.75%
United Arab Emirates 1.21% 0.33%
© Man 2016
www.man.com
13 © Man 2016
Important considerations
Normal Market Fluctuations
The Fund is subject to normal market fluctuations and the risks associated with investing in international securities markets and therefore the value of your investment and
the income from it may rise as well as fall and you may not get back the amount originally invested
Credit Risk
The Fund will be exposed to credit risk on counterparties with which it trades in relation to on-exchange traded instruments such as futures and options and where
applicable, ‘over-the-counter’ ("OTC”, "non-exchange") transactions. OTC instruments may also be less liquid and are not afforded the same protections that may apply
to participants trading instruments on an organised exchange.
Currency Risk
The value of investments designated in another currency may rise and fall due to exchange rate fluctuations. Adverse movements in currency exchange rates may result
in a decrease in return and a loss of capital. It may not be possible or practicable to successfully hedge against the currency risk exposure in all circumstances.
Illiquidity Risk
The fund may make investments or hold trading positions in markets that are volatile and which may become illiquid. Timely and cost efficient sale of trading positions can
be impaired by decreased trading volume and/or increased price volatility.
Derivatives Risk
The Fund will invest derivatives (instruments whose prices are dependent on one or more underlying asset) to achieve its investment objective. The use of derivatives
involves additional risks such as high sensitivity to price movements of the asset on which it is based. The extensive use of derivatives may significantly multiply the gains
or losses.
Leverage
The fund's use of derivatives may result in increased leverage which may lead to significant losses.
Emerging Markets Risk
The fund may invest a significant proportion of its assets in securities with exposure to emerging markets which involve additional risks relating to matters such as the
illiquidity of securities and the potentially volatile nature of markets not typically associated with investing in other more established economies or markets.
www.man.com
14 © Man 2016
Important information
Important Information
The Fund is a sub-fund of GLG Investments VI plc, domiciled in Ireland and registered with the Central Bank Of Ireland. Full details of the Fund objectives, investment policy and risks are located in the
Prospectus which is available with the Key Investor Information Document in English and in an official language of the jurisdictions in which the Fund is registered for public sale, together with the Report and
Accounts of the UCITS. The Fund’s documentation are available free of charge from the local information/paying agent, from authorised distributors and from www.man.com.
In order to fulfil the fund’s objectives the Prospectus allows the manager the ability to invest principally in units of other collective investment schemes, bank deposits, derivatives contracts designed with the aim
of gaining short term exposure to an underlying stock or index at a lower cost than owning the asset, or assets aiming to replicate a stock or debt securities index.
The value of an investment and any income derived from it can go down as well as up and investors may not get back their original amount invested. Alternative investments can involve significant additional
risks.
This material is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to invest in any product for which any Man Group plc affiliate provides investment advisory or any other services. The
content is not intended to constitute advice of any nature nor an investment recommendation or opinion regarding the appropriateness or suitability of any investment or strategy and does not consider the
particular circumstances specific to any individual recipient to whom this material has been sent. Prior to making any investment decisions, investors should read and consider the fund’s offering documents.
Opinions expressed are those of the author as of the date of their publication, and are subject to change.
Some statements contained in these materials concerning goals, strategies, outlook or other non-historical matters may be “forward-looking statements” and are based on current indicators and expectations at
the date of their publication. We undertake no obligation to update or revise them. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those
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Distribution of this material and the offer of shares may be restricted and the minimum subscription amount may be higher in certain jurisdictions. The product(s) mentioned within this material (i) may not be
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