14
© Man 2016 Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equity EM Equity: Beyond the Bearish Consensus 9 th March 2016 For Trends & Morningstar Investment Summit. Not for onward distribution.

Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

© Man 2016

Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equity

EM Equity: Beyond the Bearish Consensus

9th March 2016

For Trends & Morningstar Investment Summit. Not for onward distribution.

Page 2: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

Experienced managers in an optimal investment environment

Highly experienced investment team

2

Investment team

© Man 2016

Key benefits of running the Fund on the GLG platform

• Independent risk control

• Systems architecture facilitates sourcing

and automation of data

• Cutting edge proprietary/non proprietary

trading systems run by a large team of

experienced professionals

Risk management and operational

infrastructure

• Collaboration with over 40 sector or

regional specialists based in New York,

London, Dubai and Hong Kong

• Company meetings and broker visits

shared across investment teams

• Real-time internal chat system facilitates

idea sharing

Collaborative culture

• Complete responsibility for investment

process

• Unconstrained by house view

• GLG culture embraces both absolute-

return and long-only strategies

Independence

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Simon Pickard

Portfolio Manager

Edward Cole

Portfolio Manager

Jupiter

Portfolio manager, Emerging

Europe

Carmignac Gestion

Head of European Equities

Carmignac

Gestion

Portfolio

Manager, EM

Carmignac Gestion

Head of Emerging Markets

Man

GLG

Man

GLG

Finisterre

L/S

manager

Newsmith

L/S manager

Argos

Manager, European

Equities

Ashmore

Portfolio manager, EMEA

JP Morgan, Unicredit/ Raiffeisen

Equity strategist, EM

Page 3: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

Key fund characteristics

3

Introduction

© Man 2016

Mid-to-large cap Long equity

emerging markets

Aim for high active share and high tracking error, can hold 10% cash Unconstrained by

benchmark

Rigorous and consistent process provides a framework for judgment-based joint

management

Process

consistency

Aim for higher return on capital, better balance sheet and better cash-flow valuation Quality growth at a

reasonable price

Portfolio managers are significant investors in the Fund Alignment of

interest

Only one strategy, containing about 50 liquid stocks with low turnover Concentrated

and liquid

Page 4: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

Source: FactSet, CLSA. Note: 1) ROIC, net debt to EBITDA, net debt to equity and FCF yield are bottom-up aggregated excluding financials 2) Dividend yield, PE, PB and EV/EBITDA are calculated based on FCF yield, div yield, earnings yield, book yield and EBITDA/EV with portfolio & MSCI EM weight adjusted. The negative numbers for Net debt/EBITDA and Net debt/equity implies that the portfolio is in a net cash position.

* MSCI Emerging Markets TR Index

4 © Man 2016

Portfolio characteristics

Valuation and fundamental factors as at 11 February 2016

-0.500000

-0.300000

-0.100000

0.100000

0.300000

0.500000Value

Growth

Momentum

Financial LeverageSize

Volatility

Liquidity

Portfolio Benchmark*Portfolio Benchmark*

ROIC 2014 (%) 24.3 8.5

Net debt (cash) / EBITDA

(2014,x) (0.2) 1.4

Net debt (cash) / equity (2014,%) (7.2) 37.6

FCF yield 12-month fwd (%) 7.2 5.1

Dividend yield 12-month fwd

(%) 3.4 3.3

P/E 12-month fwd (x) 12.8 10.6

P/B 12-month fwd (x) 2.2 1.1

EV/EBITDA 12-month fwd (x) 7.5 6.4

Page 5: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

The accumulation of leverage is a headwind for EM

growth as the growth in global liquidity moderates

At a country level, our process rewards economies

with lower debt stocks, and the means to finance

growth domestically – we are significantly more

wary of Turkey and Indonesia, where foreigners

own 30-40% of local currency debt, than we are

China, where domestic savings are profound.

At a stock level, our process rewards companies

that are self-financing and where balance sheets

are clean – in aggregate, our portfolio is net cash

June 1993 to June 2015

Source: UBS

5

EM - domestic credit/GDP

© Man 2015

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140% Rationale

Easy monetary conditions globally since

2008 have fuelled growth in leverage, not

deleveraging. Emerging economies have

been at the forefront of the growth in

leverage, with the stock growing by >40%

since 2008

Current view

Page 6: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

Breakdown of China’s capital and financial account balance

Source: Gavekal Data, Macrobond

6

Most capital outflows come from ‘other investment’, i.e. debt

© Man 2016

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US

D,

billio

ns

Financial derivatives, net

Portfolio investment,net

Other investment, net

Direct investment, net

Total capital account

Page 7: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

Source: Emerging Advisors Group Limited

7

EM banking sector vulnerability

© Man 2016

50%

75%

100%

125%

150%

175%

200%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Credit/deposit ratio (%)

Bank NFA position (% of assets)

THA

MEX BRA

KAZ

EST

LIT

ROM

HUN

SLO RUS

ARG UAE

TUR

BUL

KOR

INDO

CHINA 2009

CHINA 2015

EM AVG 2009

EM AVG 2015

Page 8: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

MSCI Asia ex-Japan (ex-finance)

December 1997 to December 2015

Source: FactSet, CLSA

8

Bottom-up sales growth and EBITDA margins

© Man 2016

Rationale

In general, emerging market companies

are highly sensitive to top-line growth due

to operational gearing.

In our view, sales growth and margin

expansion is the ideal scenario for

emerging market returns

Current view

Top-line growth has been extremely weak

in recent years – a key reason for EM

equities’ relative weakness

There have been tentative signs of margin

turnaround which will provide a tailwind

once top-line recovers

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Sales growth EBITDA margin (RHS)

Actual Expected

Page 9: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

November 2002 to January 2016

Source: Bloomberg.

Inflation / deflation indicators vs. EM returns: regression model

9

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

MSCI Emerging Markets Index 'fair value' Rationale

The ‘fair value’ line is composed of 3

simple indicators : the copper price,

corporate spreads and inflation

breakevens. There is a good correlation

between this and EM $ index returns.

We use this as a component for judging

overall exposure levels

Current view

EM equities were highly ‘overvalued’

throughout 2014 and much of 2015.

However, much of this has now

corrected.

Risk/reward gap is reasonably

favourable on a short-term view, even if

the market remains highly deflationary.

© Man 2016

Page 10: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

January 1990 to December 2015

Source: Haver, Thomson Reuters

10

EM - price to trend earnings

© Man 2016

0x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

35x

40x

45x

EM - price to trend earnings ratio

Rationale

Generic index valuation is unhelpful for

short-term returns but useful for judging

potential for long-term returns in EM

Cyclicality in emerging market index

composition can make short-term

aggregate valuation measures misleading

Current view

EM has been derating versus trend

earnings since 2008.

The cyclically-adjusted PE ratio is now

cheaper than at any time since the early

1990s

Page 11: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

1

10

100

1000

10000

20

60

100

Source: GLG Partners LP

11

MSCI Emerging Markets Capitulation Indicator

Rationale

We measure percentage of down days

over a trailing period

>60% down days reflects capitulatory

price action

Hit rate is 98% for positive returns over 12

months

Current view

A ‘buy’ signal was triggered at end-

August, only the eighth in 26 years

Typically, there is further downside

between the initial buy signal and

subsequent trough – an average of 16%

over 37 days

Caution is still warranted, but risk/reward

is becoming more favourable

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of

do

wn

da

ys

in

tra

ilin

g p

eri

od

MS

CI E

me

rgin

g M

ark

ets

Ind

ex

(log

sc

ale

)

December 1989 to January 2016

© Man 2016

Page 12: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

Snapshot as at 31 January 2016

Source: GLG Partners LP The organisations and/or financial instruments mentioned are for reference purposes only. The content of this material should not be construed as a recommendation for their purchase or sale.

12

Portfolio characteristics

Sector Absolute

weight

Relative

weight

Information Technology 24.60% 3.86%

Financials 14.28% -12.78%

Banks 3.87% -12.28%

Other Financials 10.41% -0.50%

Consumer Discretionary 14.22% 4.32%

Industrials 12.26% 5.24%

Consumer Staples 12.16% 3.54%

Materials 7.67% 1.64%

Energy 3.17% -4.16%

Health Care 2.90% -0.10%

Utilities 2.24% -0.97%

Telecommunication Services 0.00% -7.10%

Region Absolute

weight

Relative

weight

China 22.52% -2.29%

Onshore 11.65% 8.91%

Offshore 10.87% -11.19%

India 17.01% 8.34%

Taiwan 10.03% -2.32%

Korea (South) 7.65% -8.08%

Mexico 6.29% 1.72%

Israel 5.94% 5.94%

South Africa 4.67% -1.89%

Brazil 4.37% -1.05%

Russian Federation 3.42% -0.21%

United States 2.96% 2.96%

Japan 2.58% 2.58%

United Kingdom 2.23% 2.23%

Hong Kong 2.13% 1.46%

Pakistan 1.75% 1.75%

United Arab Emirates 1.21% 0.33%

© Man 2016

Page 13: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

www.man.com

13 © Man 2016

Important considerations

Normal Market Fluctuations

The Fund is subject to normal market fluctuations and the risks associated with investing in international securities markets and therefore the value of your investment and

the income from it may rise as well as fall and you may not get back the amount originally invested

Credit Risk

The Fund will be exposed to credit risk on counterparties with which it trades in relation to on-exchange traded instruments such as futures and options and where

applicable, ‘over-the-counter’ ("OTC”, "non-exchange") transactions. OTC instruments may also be less liquid and are not afforded the same protections that may apply

to participants trading instruments on an organised exchange.

Currency Risk

The value of investments designated in another currency may rise and fall due to exchange rate fluctuations. Adverse movements in currency exchange rates may result

in a decrease in return and a loss of capital. It may not be possible or practicable to successfully hedge against the currency risk exposure in all circumstances.

Illiquidity Risk

The fund may make investments or hold trading positions in markets that are volatile and which may become illiquid. Timely and cost efficient sale of trading positions can

be impaired by decreased trading volume and/or increased price volatility.

Derivatives Risk

The Fund will invest derivatives (instruments whose prices are dependent on one or more underlying asset) to achieve its investment objective. The use of derivatives

involves additional risks such as high sensitivity to price movements of the asset on which it is based. The extensive use of derivatives may significantly multiply the gains

or losses.

Leverage

The fund's use of derivatives may result in increased leverage which may lead to significant losses.

Emerging Markets Risk

The fund may invest a significant proportion of its assets in securities with exposure to emerging markets which involve additional risks relating to matters such as the

illiquidity of securities and the potentially volatile nature of markets not typically associated with investing in other more established economies or markets.

Page 14: Man GLG Unconstrained Emerging Equityacties.trends.knack.be/acties/trends/investmentsummit/... · 2018-11-30 · HUN RUS ARG UAE TUR BUL KOR INDO CHINA 2009 CHINA 2015 EM AVG 2009

www.man.com

14 © Man 2016

Important information

Important Information

The Fund is a sub-fund of GLG Investments VI plc, domiciled in Ireland and registered with the Central Bank Of Ireland. Full details of the Fund objectives, investment policy and risks are located in the

Prospectus which is available with the Key Investor Information Document in English and in an official language of the jurisdictions in which the Fund is registered for public sale, together with the Report and

Accounts of the UCITS. The Fund’s documentation are available free of charge from the local information/paying agent, from authorised distributors and from www.man.com.

In order to fulfil the fund’s objectives the Prospectus allows the manager the ability to invest principally in units of other collective investment schemes, bank deposits, derivatives contracts designed with the aim

of gaining short term exposure to an underlying stock or index at a lower cost than owning the asset, or assets aiming to replicate a stock or debt securities index.

The value of an investment and any income derived from it can go down as well as up and investors may not get back their original amount invested. Alternative investments can involve significant additional

risks.

This material is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or invitation to invest in any product for which any Man Group plc affiliate provides investment advisory or any other services. The

content is not intended to constitute advice of any nature nor an investment recommendation or opinion regarding the appropriateness or suitability of any investment or strategy and does not consider the

particular circumstances specific to any individual recipient to whom this material has been sent. Prior to making any investment decisions, investors should read and consider the fund’s offering documents.

Opinions expressed are those of the author as of the date of their publication, and are subject to change.

Some statements contained in these materials concerning goals, strategies, outlook or other non-historical matters may be “forward-looking statements” and are based on current indicators and expectations at

the date of their publication. We undertake no obligation to update or revise them. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those

implied in the statements

Distribution of this material and the offer of shares may be restricted and the minimum subscription amount may be higher in certain jurisdictions. The product(s) mentioned within this material (i) may not be

registered for distribution in your jurisdiction, and (ii) may only be available to professional or otherwise qualified investors or entities. It is important that distributors and/or potential investors are able to ensure

compliance with local regulations prior to making a subscription. Please refer to the offering documentation for additional information.

Unless stated otherwise the source of all information is Man Group plc and its affiliates as of the date on the first page of this material.

This material was prepared by GLG Partners LP (company number LP006776) which is registered in England and Wales at One Curzon Street, London W1J 5HB. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the

Financial Conduct Authority. This material is distributed pursuant to global distribution and advisory agreements by subsidiaries of Man Group plc. Specifically, in the following jurisdictions:

Australia: To the extent this material is distributed in Australia it is communicated by Man Investments Australia Limited ABN 47 002 747 480 AFSL 240581, which is regulated by the Australian Securities &

Investments Commission (ASIC). This information has been prepared without taking into account anyone’s objectives, financial situation or needs.

Dubai: To the extent this material is distributed in Dubai it is communicated by Man Investments Middle East Limited which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. This marketing material is

directed solely at recipients that Man Investment Middle East Limited is satisfied meet the regulatory criteria to be a Professional Client.

Hong Kong: To the extent this material is distributed in Hong Kong, this material is communicated by Man Investments (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures

Commission in Hong Kong. This material can only be communicated to intermediaries, and professional clients who are within one of the professional investors exemptions contained in the Securities and

Futures Ordinance and must not be relied upon by any other person(s).

Switzerland: To the extent the material is distributed in Switzerland the communicating entity is Man Investments AG, which is regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority. A number of share

classes in the Luxembourg domiciled Fund have been registered for distribution with the Swiss Financial Markets Supervisory Authority. The Swiss representative is Man Investments AG, Huobstrasse 3, 8808

Pfäffikon SZ. The Swiss paying agent is Credit Suisse Paradeplatz 8, 8001 Zürich. The Prospectus, the Key Investor Information Document (the ‘KIID’), the Memorandum and Articles of Association as well as

the annual and semi‐annual reports can be obtained free of charge from the Swiss representative. In respect of the units distributed in and from Switzerland, the place of jurisdiction is Pfäffikon SZ, Switzerland.

Please take note that you are only permitted to distribute this material onwards if you are licensed as distributor (or exempt according to art. 8 Collective Investment Schemes Ordinance) and have entered into a

written distribution agreement with Man Investments AG.

This material is not suitable for US persons.

This material is proprietary information and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without prior written consent. Any data services and information available from public sources

used in the creation of this material are believed to be reliable. However accuracy is not warranted or guaranteed. © Man 2016

P/15/1887/RW/I/M