Management Report Las Vegs Visitors_Fadwa Talaoui

7/27/2019 Management Report Las Vegs Visitors_Fadwa Talaoui

1/8

Management Report for Las Vegas Visitors

Prepared by:

Fadwa Talaoui

Date: June 4, 2013


2/8

Nova Southeastern University

H. Wayne Huizenga School

of Business & Entrepreneurship

Assignment for Course: QNT5040

Submitted to: Dr. Ron Mesia

Submitted by:Fadwa Talaoui

Date of Submission: June 4, 2013

Title of Assignment: Las Vegas Visitors

CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I certify that I am the author of this paper and that any assistance I

received in its preparation is fully acknowledged and disclosed in the paper. I have also cited any sources fromwhich I used data, ideas or words, either quoted directly or paraphrased. I also certify that this paper was

prepared by me specifically for this course.

Student's Signature: _____Fadwa_________________________

*****************************************************************

Instructor's Grade on Assignment:

Instructor's Comments:


3/8

TITLE OF RUBRIC: Case Analysis (Page 1 of 2) Course: QNT 5040

LEARNING OUTCOME/S: CC4, 6, 7 & 8; (see syllabus) Date: june 4, 2013

PURPOSE: To facilitate effective decision making under uncertain

conditions by quantifying risk.

Name of Student:

Fadwa Talaoui

VALIDITY: Best practices in statistical analysis. Name of Faculty: Dr. Ron MesiaCOMPANION DOCUMENTS: Assignment and format instructions, Case

Earning maximum points in each box in PROFICIENT column and / or

points in columns to the right of PROFICIENT meets standard.

>

Performance

Criteria

Basic Developing Proficient Accomplished Exemplary Score

Identify the

problem

(CC4)

Does not

identify theproblem, or does

not identify theright problem.

(0 pts)

Identifies

symptoms

(5 pts)

Identifies some

elements of theproblem.

(10 pts)

Substantially

identifies theproblem.

(12 pt)

Effectively

and succinctlyidentifies the

problem.

(15 pts)

Describes

assumptions

and methods

(CC4)

Does notdescribe

assumptions andmethods used

(0 pts)

Does notprecisely

describe theassumptions and

methods used

(3 pts)

Somewhatdescribes

assumptionsand methods

used

(7 pts)

Substantiallydescribes

assumptions andmethods used

(8 pts)

Effectivelydescribes

assumptionsand methods

used

(10 pts)

Calculate

statistics

using a

spreadsheet

(CC6)

Does notcalculate

appropriatestatistics using a

spreadsheetand/or

does not provide

evidence ofcalculations

(0 pt)

Calculatesappropriate

statistics using aspreadsheet

(most answersare notcorrect)

(13 pts)


statistics usinga spreadsheet

(not all answersare correct)

(21 pts)


statistics using aspreadsheet (most

answers arecorrect)

(25 pts)

Effectivelycalculates

statistics usinga spreadsheet

(almost allanswers are

correct)

(30 pts)

Explainimplications

of

output of

statistical

analysis

(CC7)

Does not explain

implications ofoutput of

statisticalanalysis

(0 pt)

Partially

explainsimplications of

output ofstatistical

analysis

(3pts)

Somewhat



analysis

(7 pts)

Substantially



analysis

(8 pts)

Effectively

explainsimplications

ofoutput of

statisticalanalysis

(10 pts)

TITLE OF RUBRIC: Case Analysis, cont. (Page 2 of 2) Course: QNT 5040


4/8

LEARNING OUTCOME/S: CC4, 6, 7 & 8; (see syllabus) Date:

PURPOSE: To facilitate effective decision making under uncertain

conditions by quantifying risk.

Name of Student:

VALIDITY: Best practices in statistical analysis. Name of Faculty:COMPANION DOCUMENTS: Assignment and format instructions, Case

Earning maximum points in each box in PROFICIENT column and / or

points in columns to the right of PROFICIENT meets standard.

>

Performance

Criteria

Basic Developing Proficient Accomplished Exemplary Score

Generates

solutions

based on

analysis and

context

(CC4)

Does not

generateappropriate

solutions basedon analysis and

context.

(0 pt)

Generates

solutions (doesnot justify

conclusions).

(7 pts)

Partially:

*generates andjustifies

solutions basedon analysis and

context; and

*justifiesconclusions.

(15 pts)

Substantially:

*generates andjustifies solutions

based on analysisand context; and

*justifies

conclusions.

(17 pts)

Effectively:

*generates andjustifies

solutionsbased on

analysis and

context; and*justifies

conclusions.(20 pts)

Uses

prescribed

format

(including

cover sheet

and grading

rubric)and

writing style

(language,

grammar,

punctuation,

and spelling)

(CC8)

Does not useprescribedformat and

writing style

(0 pt)

May useprescribedformat OR

writing style

(only one)

(3 pts)

Generally usesprescribedformat and

writing style

(7 pts)

Substantially usesprescribed formatand writing style

(8 pts)

Effectivelyuses

prescribedformat and

writing style

(10 pts)

Uses APA

format

(APA Style

Manual 6.0)

(CC8)

Does not providereferences.

(0 pt)

Does not applyAPA style toreferences.

(1pts)

Partiallyapplies APA

style toreferences.

(3 pts)

Substantiallyapplies APA

style toreferences.

(4 pts)

Effectivelyapplies APAstyle to allreferences.

Optimalquality andquantity of

citations.

(5 pts)

OVERALL GRADE (100 total possible points): %

Comments:

______________________________________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________


5/8

Management Report for Las Vegas Visitors

Executive Summary

From small beginnings, Dimitru created a company offering a limousine service and now

it is considered to be one of the best services in Las Vegas with a fleet of 17 vehicles. In 2012, he

decided to replace three old limousines and expand the fleet with two new vehicles.

After submitting the business plan to the bank to finance his purchases, they were not

comfortable with the companys revenue forecast. The bank needed to be convinced that during

2013 the revenues will grow. David, the son of Dimitru, was asked to forecast the number of

visitors for 2013 preparing a strong argument about the revenue of the company to the bank.

The forecasting of the companys revenue will be based on three models. Regression,

Additive and Multiplicative Model. Based on these models we will choose the best model thatgives the most accurate results compared to the original data.

Background

After working, in a hotel in Las Vegas, as parking attendant, parker in the valet service

then a driver for the hotel limousine service. Dumitru Mironescu and his friend, David, created

their own company and started a limousine Service. The company was considered to be one of

the best services in Las Vegas with a fleet of 17 vehicles. Therefore, in 2012 and due to the

recent recession the company was little bit affected. However, Dumitru decided to replace three

of his old limousines and enlarge the fleet with two new vehicles.

With the help of his son, Denis, who is attending an MBA program. Dumitru submitted a

business plan to his bank to finance his new purchases. As a result, the bank requested more

details about the revenue forecast. Because they think that the companys revenue will not grow

in 2013 given the depressed state of the economy.

Dimitru asked his son to help him using his education to prove that the companys

revenue will grow in 2013.David knew that there is a strong relationship between the revenue of

the limousine service and the number of visitors to Las Vegas. This pushed him to make someresearch in the internet and find annual and monthly data from 1970 to 2011 of the number of

visitors to Las Vegas.

From the monthly data, David needs to forecast the number of visitors for the December,

2012 through December, 2013 and prepare a convincing argument for the bank showing that the

revenue would grow rather than remaining fixed.


6/8

Problem:

Denis needs to forecast the number of visitors to Las Vegas and prove that the revenue

will increase in 2013.

Analysis

The following analysis will support that the companys revenues forecast will increase in

2013.There is a strong correlation between the number of visitors to Las Vegas and the revenues

for limousine services. So in order to forecast 2013 revenues, we need to use previous data of

visitors to Las Vegas. The following forecast will based on the visitors that visited Las Vegas

between 1970 and 2011.

For our analysis, we are going to use three different models (Regression, Additive and

Multiplicative) in order to choose the best model that will give the accurate results. Our used

data is a time series which means that the set of date that we are using to forecast varies over

time and made up of trend, seasonality, cycle behavior and randomness.

.

Below is a table that compare the results of our three forecasting methods.

REGRESSION HDE ADDITIVE HD MULTIPLICATIVE

ME 0.0000 4,222 -895

MSE 15,844,163,145 10,462,933,589 6139138947

RMSE 102288 102,288 78353

MAPE 3.45% 2.60% 1.91

U 0.620680739 0.521181866 0.39217292

In order to compare between the three models, we compare the Thiels U and the Mean

square error of each model. A good forecasting model has a value of U


7/8

Below are the graphs that compare the forecasted results of each model to the original data:

From these three graphs, we can say that the regression and additive models provide a big

fluctuated forecasting date compared to the original data while the multiplicative model provides

excellent forecasting estimates with little to non-existing fluctuation from the original data and

also the red line is matching the blue line which supports the previous claims concerning the

estimates of the Mean Square Error.


8/8

Conclusion

To conclude and after running the three forecasting models, we noticed that the

multiplicative Model is the only model that supports the forecasting and gives accurate data

compared to the reality. This decision was made after finding that this model has the lowest

fluctuation between the forecasted numbers of visitors and the original date (MSE). Also the

model has the lowest U.

Starting from the Results of 2013 forecast, we can clearly notice that there will a growth

in the number of visitors which will support Dumitru convincing the bank to finance his

purchases.

Bibliography

Microsoft Office Excel. (2007). Redmond, WA: Microsoft Corporation.

Documents

Management Report Las Vegs Visitors_Fadwa Talaoui