Managing Flash FloodsManaging Flash Floods

Risk Perception from a Cultural Risk Perception from a Cultural PerspectivePerspective

IntroductionsIntroductions

• Who is here• Why we are here

– We all share a common interest in reducing losses to life and property from flash floods

• What to expect from this meeting– Overview of proposed risk perception

research project– Discussion: How to make this information

useful and practical for implementation

CLIMAS AFMA, NWS,

ADEM, FCDs, etc.

Forging thepartnership

Fieldwork: surveys and analysis

Present findings, feedback,

brainstorming

Develop new products

Implement new products

Ashley Coles’smaster’s thesis

Final report

Mileti, 1995

Effective warnings must be…Effective warnings must be…• Heard• Understood

– What is happening, time, how to prepare

• Believed– Warning is true, danger is

imminent

• Personalized– Risk to self or property is

perceived

• Responded to

Risk perception researchRisk perception researchTypical approachesTypical approaches

• There is an appropriate response, anything else is irrational– Behavior as a result of individual

psychological (dis?)function– Behavior as a result of human nature

• People need more education and information

• More recently and frequently, studies are beginning to account for the effects of cultural and social contexts

What is culture?What is culture?

• A way of life learned from and shared by a social unit– Attitudes, beliefs, values, and habits

• Not just national, also “gender, ethnicity, religion, cohort or generation, historical period, profession, social class, and country of origin” (Kitayama & Markus, 1995, p. 368)

• Norms, values, and practices shape how individuals process information and make decisions

Main cultural factorsMain cultural factors

• Trust– In science, government, and responsible agency

• Self-efficacy– How confident people feel in their ability to handle ordinary life

as well as extreme events

• Social incorporation– Extent of social networks– Social amplification of risk

• Social autonomy– Degree of freedom to fill any social role

• Time orientation– Focus on past, present, or future

Mary Douglas: Mary Douglas: Risk and BlameRisk and Blame

Isolate

Individualist/Market

Hierarchy/Bureaucracy

Sect/Enclave

Incorporation

Aut

onom

y

But it’s more complicated…But it’s more complicated…

Hazard information

Gender TrustAge Self-efficacyEthnicity IncorporationSocioeconomic AutonomyEtc. Time orientation

Behavior

Risk Perception

Implications for mitigationImplications for mitigation• Can education and

information are likely to change attitudes, values, and beliefs?

• Risk managers must speak to these attitudes, values, and beliefs– Which means that

managers must “know” the people they are responsible for protecting

Why use a survey?Why use a survey?

• Can perform both quantitative and qualitative analyses on the data– Quantitative: regression analysis– Qualitative: open-ended questions for deeper

insight

• Able to reach a broad spectrum of various cultural groups

Who is the target sample?Who is the target sample?

• People who have crossed flooded washes– Problematic because of

death, stigma, and number of successful crossings

• 1000 Tucson residents in flood prone areas– Specific neighborhoods

with proximity to commonly flooded intersections or crossings

Plan to increase response ratePlan to increase response rate

• Week 1: First survey packet mailed out – Survey in English and Spanish– Consent forms– Reply-paid envelope

• Week 2: Reminder Postcard

• Week 3: Second survey packet mailed out

• Offer drawing for $20 Visa Gift Card

• Reduce effects of stigma

What does the survey ask?What does the survey ask?

• Using direct and indirect methods– Cultural factors– Historical and hypothetical behavior

• Relevant demographic information

Compared to the average person, I am a good judge of whether flood waters are dangerous.

Completely Somewhat Neutral Somewhat CompletelyDisagreeDisagree Agree Agree

What do you think?What do you think?

• Is this potentially useful for your flood mitigation decision-making?

• Do you have the desire and ability to implement new mitigation strategies based on these findings?

• What information would you like to gather with the survey tool?