Managing Local Energy and Environment Interfaces:

AIM-Local Model Applications

P.R. Shukla

Energy Service DemandEnergy Technology

SO2, NOX, SPM, CO2

• Modeling the dilemma of providing energy services and protecting the environment in a local region

Air pollutants

Acid precipitation

Introduction

Linear programming

Total cost minimum

Service demand

ParametersVariables

Definitions

Constraints

Objective Function

Environmental target

Available energy supply

Operating capacity

Maximum shares of technologies

Maximum exchange of stock

Solver

AIM Local Model: Methodology

iplijlWpl

ijlij XADj

,,,,),(

,,,

Model Formulation

(1) Service demand constraint

Al,j,i : Service supply quantity by technologies and regions

Ψl,j,i : Social service efficiency by technologies and regions

Xl,p,i : Operating quantity by technology combinations (l,p) and regions

iplilipl SX ,,,,,

(2) Operating capacity constraint

Λl,i : Operating efficiency by technologies and regions

Sl,p,i : Stock quantity by technology combinations and regions

ki pl

pliplkilk EXE ˆ),(

,,,,,,

iplkE ,,,

(3) Energy supply constraint

: Energy consumption by fuels, technologies and regions

ξk,l,i : Energy efficiency improvement by operation style and maintenance

(4) Emission constraint

Emissions:

Emission factors:

dl,p,im : Pollutant release ratio by technology combinations and regions

),(

,,,,pl

miplipl

mi eXQ

mipliplkilk

mlk

k

ml

mipl dEffe ,,,,,,,,,0,,

mz

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z

ˆ

(5) Cost functions

Initial cost:

Operating cost:

Environmental cost:

),(,,,,,,

1

11

pl pipplppl

xiplpl MCrC

iplpl k

iplkilkikipl XEgg ,,),(

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(6) Objective function

min )(),(

,,,,,,,,,,0

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1

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SETS

PARAMETERS

VARIABLES

EQUATIONS

An Example of Transport Problem

Model Formulation in GAMS

Input Filefor GAMS

Output filefrom GAMS

Sum of Value Energy_Device Removal

CK1 CK2 COLBLR

Year NON NON NON SFGD

_bas e 4,700,000 1 ,300,000 24,528,000 1 ,752,000

1995 4,700,000 1 ,300,000 24,528,000 1 ,752,000

1996 6,000,000 26,134,533 1 ,664,400

1997 6,180,000 27,624,834 1 ,584,466

1998 6,365,400 29,010,707 1 ,510,876

1999 6,556,362 30,301,836 1 ,442,662

2000 6,753,053 31,506,418 1 ,379,091

2001 6,955,645 32,631,543 1 ,319,587

2002 7,164,314 33,683,447 1 ,263,694

2003 7,379,244 34,667,680 1 ,211,035

2004 7,600,621 35,589,232 1 ,161,300

2005 7,828,640 36,452,618 1 ,114,226

Input filefrom IDRISI

AIM-LocalDatabase System

AIM-Local modelGAMS version

GAMS

0.0012.5025.0037.5050.0062.5075.0087.50100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50>=200.00

0.00

12.50

25.00

37.50

50.00

62.50

75.00

87.50

100.00

112.50

125.00

137.50

150.00

162.50

175.00

187.50

>=200.00

0.006.2512.5018.7525.0031.2537.5043.7550.0056.2562.5068.7575.0081.2587.5093.75>=100.00

IDRISI32

AIM workshop 2001AIM workshop 2001

AIM-Local Database System

Emission by point

Emission by City and Sector

Large Point Source

Area Source

Emission by City

3.Sector

Emission by Region and Sector

2.Region

Large Point Source and Area Source

5. Service

Service Demand( I J )

Share Potential( I L J T )

Energy service tech. (LT)& Air Pollution Control (P) - Energy Cons.(K L P T), - Service Supply (L J T) - Fixed Cost (L P T) - Removal Rate (L P T) etc.

6.Technology

Energy ConsumptionCO2 Emission

SO2/NO2 Emission( I L T )

Energy PriceEmission Factor

( K T )

Technology SelectionModule

(AIM-Local GAMS ver.)

Operating Rate( I L T )

Energy Service Tech.(L T)

Air Pollution Control(P)

Stock Quantity ( L T0 )

7.Stock

8.Share

9.Performance

4.Energy

10.Counter-measure

Tax( ME M T)

Regulation( ME M T)

Subsidy( I L T )

I : LPS or AreaL : Energy DeviceP : Removal PorcessJ : ServiceK : EnergyM : Gas (CO2, SO2, NO2) T : TimeME : Group on measure

Maintenance etc.

( I LT )

Structure of AIM-Local Database

Input and Output

Input:(1) Energy Fuel type, Fuel price, Emission factors by fuels and technologies Energy resource constraints

(2) Technology Initial cost, Operating cost Life-span, Capacity, Share Energy consumption by fuels for a unit production Pollutants removal technologies and combinations

(3) Service demand by regions and sectors Historical service data Future service demand forecast

Economic development plans from the local government

Development plans from the local industries

(4) Air pollutant emission constraints Current air pollutant emissions Local environmental protection policies

Output:(1) Aggregated results Total energy consumption by years Total costs by years Total CO2 emissions by years Total air pollutant emissions by years

(2) Technology options CO2 emissions by technologies and years Air pollutant emissions by technologies and years Energy consumption by technologies and years

(3) Service output Service output by regions, sectors, technologies

and years

(4) Energy balance table Energy balance table for the local region by years

(with energy information for sectors, technologies and fuel types)

Model Features

Simplified Structure Modeling local environmental constraints Direct benefit and co-benefit of counter

measures Flexible model structure to cope with various

practical situation in different regions GAMS programming GIS Interface

Geographical Information System (GIS)

Why GIS?

Capture location sensitivity Provide layered information Analyze time slices Integrate location and time information

in a consistent framework

Spatial Data Characteristics

Spatial data are characterized by information about position, connections with other features and details of non-spatial characteristics

latitude and longitude as a geographical reference connection details such as which service roads,

lifts and ski trails would allow the meteorologist access to the weather station

non-spatial (or attribute) data, for instance details of the amount of snowfall, temperature, wind speed and direction

Raster data Model

(sometimes referred to as grid)

Vector Data Model

(an entity is a component or

building block used to help data

organization)

Data Models

GIS Database

Integrated GIS Database

Examples of GIS Application to AIM-Local

Beijing City

Economic Features Per capita GDP: 3 times of the national level Industry > 60% of GDP Heavy Industry > 80% of industrial GDP

Beijing City: Regional Details

Population Density (person/km2)

28

38

9

28

64

2

28

96

4

37

23

2

39

76

34

52

48

13

36

10

17

6

37

3

44

4

52

9

70

8

52

2

33

9

11

9

19

3

12

5

72

1

05000

10000150002000025000300003500040000

Do

ng

ch

en

g

Xic

he

ng

Ch

on

gw

en

Xu

an

wu

Ch

ao

ya

ng

Fe

ng

tai

Sh

ijin

gsh

an

Ha

idia

n

Me

nto

ug

ou

Fa

ng

sh

an

Ch

an

gp

ing

Sh

un

yi

To

ng

zh

ou

Da

xin

g

Pin

gg

u

Hu

air

ou

Miy

un

Ya

nq

ing

Be

ijin

g C

ity

Center Outside

Source: Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2000.

per capita GDP (Yuan)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000D

ongcheng

Xic

heng

Chongw

en

Xuanw

u

Chaoyang

Fengta

i

Shijingshan

Haid

ian

Mento

ugou

Fangshan

Changpin

g

Shunyi

Tongzhou

Daxin

g

Pin

ggu

Huairou

Miy

un

Yanqin

g

Beijing C

ity

Center Outside

Source: Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2000.

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00

1990

2000

2010

2020

( Million)

Permanent

Temporary

Sources:

(1) Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau (1999).

(2) Beijing Municipal Government (1992).

(3) Beijing Municipal Planning Commission (2000b).

Sources:

(1) Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau (2000).

(2) Beijing Municipal Planning Commission (2000).

(3) Beijing Municipal Government (1992).

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

2000 – 2005: 9.5% 2006 – 2010: 9.0% 2011 – 2020: 8.5%

Large Point Sources data

Beijing Cement Plant

Technology: dry kiln with pre-decomposition processCapacity : 2000 t/d Production: 525# Portland cement, 0.74 Mt /aLocation: Changping District, Beijing City

Beijing Yanshan Petroleum and Chemical Group Corporations

Technology: heavy oil based refinery processCapacity : 6.0 Mt /a Location: Fangshan District, Beijing City

Refinery

Beijing Yanshan Petroleum and Chemical Group Corporations

Technology: Diesel oil based processCapacity : 0.45 Mt /a Location: Fangshan District, Beijing City

Ethylene

Beijing Shijingshan Thermal Power Plant

Technology: coal boilerCapacity : 4000 MW Location: Shijingshan District, Beijing City

Beijing Capital Steel Corporations

Capacity : 8.00 Mt Location: Shijingshan District, Beijing City

Residential sector Commercial sector Transportation sector Other sectors

Area source data

Results

Beijing Capital Steel Corporations

Beijing Shijingshan General Power Plant

1995

2020 (case 1) 2020 (case 8) 2020 (case 6)

SO2 intensity (t-SO2/km2)

1995

2020 (case 1) 2020 (case 6)

CO2 intensity (t-C/km2)

Ahmedabad City, India

High economic and demographic growth

Industrial base

Growing transport demand

India

Gujarat Ahmedabad

Ahmedabad Urban AreaAhmedaba

d District

Area PopulationHouseholds Sq. Km. Thousands Thousands

Gujarat 18509 184 196024 (3) 41310 (34) 7493 (36)Ahmedabad Dist. 648 7 8707 (6) 4802 (75) 920 (75)

Categories Villages Taluka

Ahmedabad District

Note: Figures in brackets show % Urban share

East Zone

Central Zone

North Zone

West Zone

South ZoneRiver

Sabarmati

Ahmedabad Municipal Area

Ahmedabad Municipal Area (South Zone)

Pirana Landfill

AEC GasPower plant

Vatva GIDC

Narol GIDC

Pirana MSP

Chandola Lake/Landfill

*GIDCs have many Textile processing and Chemical units

Ahmedabad – Area CO2 Emissions – 2030 (MT)

Ahmedabad – Area SO2 Emissions – 2030 (MT)

Ahmedabad – LPS CO2 Emissions – 2030 (kT)

Ahmedabad – LPS SO2 Emissions – 2030 (kT)