MANAGING PUBLIC ASSET EXPOSURES - oecd.org · Kecelakaan Transportasi Kecelakaan Industri Gelombang Pasang/Abrasi Puting Beliung Kekeringan Banjir Banjir dan Tanah Longsor Tanah Longsor

MANAGING PUBLIC ASSET EXPOSURES

Leigh Wolfrom, Policy Analyst, Financial Affairs Division, OECD OECD-ADBI Workshop on Disaster Risk Financing in Asia

24 June 2016 Tokyo, Japan

Public assets create significant disaster

exposures

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0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Fiji (Cyclone - 2012) Samoa (Cyclone - 2012) Pakistan (2011 - Flood) Thailand (Flood - 2011)

Estimated Recovery & Reconstruction Requirements (USD millions) (LHS) Estimated Requirements/Central Government Expenditure (Share) (RHS)

2 747 50 000

206

67

2 747 50 000

206

67

102.2%

75.5%

• Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction requirements can account for a significant share of public expenditures…

Source: Estimated recovery and reconstruction costs are from Post-Disaster Needs Assessments undertaken by; Government of Fiji ,2012; Government of Samoa, 2012; Government of Pakistan, 2011; Government of Thailand, 2011 (as reported in Bevan and Cook (2015), “Public Expenditure Following Disaster” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7355). Central government public expenditure data were taken from the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics (“Budgetary central government”)

• …and damage to publicly-owned economic and social infrastructure can account for a large share of reconstruction needs

Public assets create significant disaster

exposures

3 Source: Estimated damages to publicly-owned assets, taken from World Bank (2012), Thai Flood 2011: Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction Planning – Overview. Estimates of the public-share of damage were calculated based on the share of overall damage and losses attributable to the public sector.

Estimated damage to publicly-owned assets by sector: 2011 Thai Floods (THB billions)

Water Resources Managememt, 8.7

Transport, 23.4

Telecommunication, 0.5

Electricity, 1.9

Water Supply & Sanitation, 3.5

Health, 0.7

Education, 9.3

Cultural Heritage, 1.8

Total: 49 billion THB (~USD 1.6

billion)

• Damage to critical systems can cause significant social hardship and economic losses by disrupting access to basic life lines (electricity, water, food distribution): – The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake led to a 50% reduction in power

output as a result of nuclear power plant shutdowns – Flooding in Serbia in 2014 led to 25% reduction in power due to the

flooding of a key coal mine flooding – Superstorm Sandy in 2012 stranded 5.4 million commuters in the New

York City area as a result of road and metro closures – The summer floods in 2007 in the United Kingdom left more than 350 000

people without access to mains water supply for 17 days

Disruptions to critical infrastructure can

exacerbate economic impacts

4

• OECD simulation of potential macro-economic impacts of Seine river flood in Paris region (based on flood levels from 1910 event): – 1.5 million households and business customers could face power supply

disruptions – More than half of the 250 km metro line could be closed (only 1 of 14 lines

operational) – Road network disruptions could affect 5 motorways, several major

highways and all bridge crossings over the Seine river – 5 million customers could face disruptions to water supply

Disruptions to critical infrastructure: Seine river

flood

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19 billion in business operating losses (i.e. 65% of the direct losses)

Source: OECD (2014), Seine Basin, Île de France, 2014: Resilience to major floods, http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/seine-basin-ile-de-france-2014-resilience-to-major-floods-9789264208728-en.htm.

Disruptions to critical infrastructure: Great East

Japan Earthquake

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Source: McGee et al. (2014), Risk Relationships and Cascading Effects in Critical Infrastructures: Implications for the Hyogo Framework, Input Paper – Prepared for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015,, http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/bgdocs/McGee%20et%20al.,%202014.pdf.

Disruptions to critical infrastructure: Power

blackouts

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Source: CRO Forum (2011), “Power Blackout Risks - Risk Management Options”, Emerging Risk Initiative – Position Paper, http://www.thecroforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/CRO-Position-Paper-Power-Blackout-Risks-.pdf.

High dependence on energy across the economy means there could be substantial cascading impacts from a significant blackout…

…with significant cost implications for the economy (figures based on an 8-hour event).

1. Quantifying exposure - developing a comprehensive understanding of: – Hazards, including potential climate change implications and possible service

disruptions based on dependencies (e.g. dependence on electricity) – Assets and their vulnerability to identified hazards – Economic implications of disruption

2. Assessing possible approaches to reducing risk – Properly accounting for disaster risk and climate change in public asset design and

development – Reducing impact of service disruptions (e.g. diversification, back-up systems,

business continuity planning)

3. Developing a strategy to manage residual risk – Determining desired level of risk retention and transfer and evaluating cost-benefits

of different approaches to risk financing and transfer (e.g. reserve funds for reconstruction needs, post-disaster borrowing or spending reallocation, insurance of public assets, transfer of public expenditure risks, etc.)

Managing public asset exposure

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• US Gulf coast energy infrastructure: – With the support of Swiss Re, undertook an assessment of exposure of key energy

infrastructure in 77 counties along the US Gulf coast to hurricanes, subsidence and sea-level rise using various climate-change scenarios (http://www.entergy.com/content/our_community/environment/GulfCoastAdaptation/Building_a_Resilient_Gulf_Coast.pdf)

• Philippines Catastrophe Risk Model:

– With the support of AIR Worldwide, used historical data for natural disasters and a geo-referenced catalogue of all national government assets to develop a disaster risk model to estimate potential economic losses resulting from various disaster scenarios

Quantifying exposure: some examples

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• Requiring that disaster risk and climate change be incorporated in design standards:

– In the United States, a Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (Executive Order 13690) has been established requiring that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) critical infrastructure be protected against a 1-in-100-years flood event, with a safety provision of two additional feet (66cm) for critical infrastructure, and a safety provision of one additional foot (33cm) for other infrastructure.

– In Western Australia, the state road operator (WA Main Roads) is integrating climate change considerations into design standards and road upgrades by requiring that the implications of a 300mm sea-level rise (450mm for structures) be considered as part of planning, design and construction considerations for all rehabilitation and expansion projects near coastal areas.

• Building resilience to reduce service disruptions • In the United Kingdom, the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (OFGEM – the regulatory authority for energy and

gas suppliers) has established an Interruption Incentive Scheme to reward (and penalise) distribution network operators based on the number and duration of service interruptions – which has led to substantial decreases in the customer interruptions, customer minutes lost and a reduction in the number of disruptions lasting more than 18 hours of 90% between 2010-11 and 2014-15.

Approaches to reducing risk: some

examples

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• Insurance of public assets: – Costa Rica: public insurer is establishing a vehicle to insure public assets

and transfer only excessive losses to international financial markets – Colombia: government procurement agency is establishing a group

insurance policy for departments to access to insure their assets

• Insurance of public expenditures: – CCRIF: regional pooling initiative among Caribbean (and soon Central

American) countries that makes payouts to governments in the event of a disaster event that exceeds parametric thresholds

– PCRAFI: a pilot initiative similar to CCRIF for the Pacific Islands

Risk transfer options for managing residual risk: some examples

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• A significant share of critical infrastructure is owned by sub-national governments and the private sector

• Governments can encourage operational and financial resilience of sub-national and private infrastructure by sharing hazard information and developing standards

• National governments need to consider best ways to incent operational and financial resilience by sub-national and private sector owners: – Determination of Terms and Conditions for the NDRRA in Australia

(requirement for state governments to submit an independent assessment of insurance arrangements for federal review)

Encouraging resilience: sub-national and private owners

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• Governance of Critical Infrastructure Resilience: – development of an analytical framework on operational and financial

resilience and related case studies for Latin American countries

• Government role in making infrastructure climate resilient: – review of practices and selected case studies in OECD countries,

considering how different policy levers such as technical standards, economic regulation, financial disclosure, infrastructure banks and PPP frameworks can contribute to the climate resilience of infrastructure

OECD work in this area

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Leigh Wolfrom Policy Analyst Financial Affairs Division, OECD [email protected]

14

Thank you

30/06/2016

1

DISASTER RISK FINANCING AND INSURANCE

(DRFI) IN INDONESIA

Ministry of Finance Republic of Indonesia

Tokyo, 24 June 2016

2 DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF BUDGET FINANCING AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Outline

A. Indonesian Disaster Exposure

B. Disaster Risk Financing Strategy

C. Indonesian Challenges

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A. Indonesian Disaster Exposure


Indonesia at Risk...

Along Ring of Fire and Center of Equator.... Risk of Climatological Disaster

Located within 3 plateu (Australian, Eurasian, and Pacific Plateu)....

Risk of Geological Disaster

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Multiple Hazards...

Indonesia locates on most vulnerable location where multiple hazard exist (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, floods, land slide, drought, forest fire, etc..)


1. Disaster events tend to increase during 2002-2013;

2. Almost 80% of disaster comes from climatology (flood, land slide, drought, forest fire);

3. In the future, this trend still increasing...

6

Disaster Events (Manmade & Natural)...

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Dis

aste

r Fr

equ

ency

Year

Kebakaran Lahan dan Hutan

Kecelakaan Transportasi

Kecelakaan Industri

Gelombang Pasang/Abrasi

Puting Beliung

Kekeringan

Banjir

Banjir dan Tanah Longsor

Tanah Longsor

Letusan Gn. Api

Tsunami

Gempa Bumi dan Tsunami

Gempa Bumi

432

798 609

764 838

1.113

1.287

1.999

1.663

1.842

165

1.387

372

Forest fire

Transportation accidents

Industrial accidents

Tidal wave/abration

Tornado

Drought

Floods

Floods and land slides

Land slides

Volcanic eruption

Tsunami

Earthquake and tsunami

earthquake

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Disaster Loss... NO DISASTER EVENTS YEAR LOSS

(Million USD)

1 Aceh tsunami 2004 4,140

2 Earthquake Yogyakarta 2006 2,910

3 Mud vulcano Sidoarjo 2006 730

4 Tsunami pangandaran 2006 40

5 Flood Jakarta 2007 520

6 Earthquake Padang 2007 100

7 Earthquake Bengkulu 2007 170

8 Flood + land slide Java 2008 180

9 Earthquake Tasikmalaya 2009 690

10 Earthquake Padang 2009 2,090

11 Flood Wasior 2010 30

12 Earthquake + tsunami Mentawai 2010 30

13 Vulcanic Eruption Java 2010 360

14 Floods Manado 2014 140

Total 12,130

1. Indonesia amongs 35 vulnerable countries;

2. 40% people prone to disaster;

3. National economic impact relatively small (0.3% National GDP), but significant for local govt. (45% Local GDP for Aceh, and 30% Local GDP for Yogyakarta).

(source: World Bank)


B. Disaster Risk Financing Strategies

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Pre Disaster

Emergency Response

Post Disaster

Disaster Financing Cycles (Law 24/2007)

• Prevention & mitigation • Preparedness Plan • Simulation • Research & Development

• Evacuation • Rescue • Providing basic needs • Refugee handling

• Infrastructure recovery • Service rehabilitation • Reconstruction

Budget in NBDM Budget in Line Ministries Local Govt Budget

On-call Fund Contingency Budget: • Central Govt • Local Govt

Budget in Line Ministries Local Govt Budget International assisstance

Activities

Budget

Unit in Charge • National Board for Disaster Mgt. • MoF, MoPW, MoH, etc. • Regional Board for Disaster Mgt.

• National Board for Disaster Mgt. • National Search and Rescue • Regional Board for Disaster Mgt.

• National Board for Disaster Mgt. • National Search and Rescue • Regional Board for Disaster Mgt.


National and Some Local Govt Budget for Disaster Financing (Billion Rp)

Activities FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016

1 Pre Disaster •Budget in NBDM

1,831

1,705

987

2 Emergency •On Call fund •Contingent fund •National Search and Rescue

-

3,000 1,919

2,000 2,000 2,620

2,500 2,000 1,988

3 Post Disaster Various Line Ministries

1,011

n.a

n.a

Expenditure FY 2016 Prov. Sumatera Barat Prov. DKI Jakarta Prov. DI Yogyakarta

Total Expenditure 4.774,20 59.945,52 4.189,99

Grant 1.087,32 2.550,50 768,18

Social Assistance - 2.524,19 4,68

Financial Support to Municipal and village 150,73 1,82 91,81

Unexpected expenditure 16,45 128,52 12,50

Sub Total: Proxy for Disaster Related Financing 1.254,50 5.205,03 877,17

Percentage from Total Expenditure 26,3% 8,7% 20,9%

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DISASTER RISK FINANCING

• Contingent Disaster Fund

– Contingent fund (Rp2T for 2016)

– On-call fund (Rp2,5T for 2016)

• Budget in BNPB (Rp0,9T for 2016)

• Budget in Line Ministries

– Budget in MoH, MoPW, MoE, etc for disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction

• Some local Govt insured their assets (e.q. Padang, Yogyakarta, Jakarta)

• Central Govt can expand deficit up to 3% of GDP (GDP 2016 = ±1T USD)


Asset

Exposure RISK

Retain: • Central Govt Budget • Local Govt Budget

Transfer: • Insurance • Central & Local

Govt

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT

Asset (Dec 2014) billion USD

Land 72,74

Machinery and equiptment 25,50

Building 16,23

Road, Irigation, dan network 36,63

Other Fixed Asset 3,84

Construction in progress 8,77

Accumulated depreciation -31,81

Total fixed asset 131,89

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C. Indonesian Challenges...


Low General Insurance Market...

Source: BPS, OJK, and Insurance Information Institute 2016

Country (2014) Total Premium (miliion USD)

% of World Premium

Rank

Indonesia 15,307 0.32 37

Philippines 5,788 0.12 47

Mexico 27,242 0.57 26

Thailand 21,696 0,45 31

World 4,788,246 100 -

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DRF CONDITION & CHALLENGE...

Condition

• Mostly depend on government budget (risk retain)

• Limited local govt capacity heavy burden to central govt

• Limited option to risk transfer

• Low insurance penetration and understanding

• Limited insurance product

Challenge

• How to increase community participation

• How to create Insurance product and market

• How to strengthten financial resilience


Government Property Insurance Scheme (on going..)

GoI preparing Ministry of Finance Regulation for Government Property Insurance.

This regulation as legal basis for line ministry to insure government property

Objective: to protect government properties against disaster.

Insurance principles : selective; efficient; effective; and priority.

Object of insurance : Building;

Bridge;

Transportation modes; and

Other government property.

Object of insurance criteria: Located in disaster-prone areas;

High probability to be damaged or lost; and

Have big impact on public services.

Hig

hM

ed

ium

Low

Low Medium High

Imp

act

Frequency

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ThankYou © 2016

Directorate of State Financial Risk Management

Directorate General of Budget Financing and Risk Management

Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia

Frans Seda Building 1st floor, Jalan Dr. Wahidin No. 1 Jakarta 10710

Ministry of Finance of Republic of Indonesia


1. Geological disaster (earthquake, volcanic eruption, tsunami) caused massif loss in short period, while climatological disaster creates high loss in longer period because of more frequent events.

2. Major climatology disaster during 3 years (2011 – 2013) is flood..

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No. Climatology Disaster events 2011 2012 2013

1. Floods 554 540 303 2. Floods + Land slide 26 51 24 3. Drought 221 264 4. Thunderstorm 447 562 231 5. Land slide 329 291 169 6. Tidal wave / Abration 17 29 22 Total 1.594 1.737 749

Natural Disaster Events...

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CURRENT SCHEME FOR DRF IN INDONESIA

Budget Realocation

Expand deficit up to 3% GDP

Disaster Central +

Local Govt Contingent

fund

Managing public asset exposuresClosing the protection gap

OECD-ADBI Seminar on Disaster Risk Financing in Asia24 June 2016, Tokyo, Japan

OECD-ADBI Seminar on Disaster Risk Financing in Asia | June 2016

Growing consensus on the macroeconomic impact of climate change and natural events

2

“Insurance confers benefits both before and after disaster strikes. Beforehand, the underwriters [demand] better planning and higher-quality, more resilient building from property developers and city planners. Afterwards, insurance helps entire economies to recover more rapidly.”The Economist, 13 June 2015

"Major natural catastrophes have large and significant negative effects on economic activity... However, it is mainly the uninsured losses that drive the subsequent macroeconomic cost, whereas sufficiently insured events are inconsequential in terms of foregone output."Working Paper No. 394, December 2012

"Natural disasters can damage sovereign creditworthiness”Storm Alert: Natural Disasters Can Damage Sovereign Creditworthiness, September 2015

"Climate change is likely to be one of the global mega-trends impacting sovereign creditworthiness…. Government budgets could come under additional pressure as disaster recovery and emergency support for affected populations is likely to fall on the state in most cases."Climate Change is a Global Mega Trend for Sovereign Risk, May 2014


… and on governments' role in risk financing

3

"National and subnational governments can develop and implement comprehensive disaster risk financing strategies to reduce risk and to provide adequate and timely post-disaster support to strengthen financial resilience."Investing in Resilience

"Finance Ministries play a pivotal role in DRM strategies [by] ensuring proper fiscal management of disaster risks by anticipating potential budgetary impacts and planning ahead to ensure adequate financial capacity and rapid release of funds, thus enabling emergency response, reconstruction of public assets and infrastructure, and targeted financial assistance." Disaster Risk Assessment and Risk Financing - A G20/OECD Methodological Framework

"States, (…) regional and international organizations should develop partnerships to implement schemes that spread out risks, reduce insurance premiums, expand insurance coverage and thereby increase financing for post disaster reconstruction and rehabilitation, including through public and private partnerships."Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 - 2015

"One way to mitigate the economic and ratings impact of natural disasters [on sovereign creditworthiness] is catastrophe insurance."Storm Alert: Natural Disasters Can Damage Sovereign Creditworthiness, September 2015


How to close the protection gap

4

gap

4

Which risk?

Governments

Who carries the risk?

PoolingInsurance schemes and pools

to increase insurance penetration

MacroRisk transfer solutions

for (sub)sovereigns to cover their direct or indirect costs

MicroSimplified products distributed

via aggregators such as MFIs, NGOs, and corporates

Risk transfer solution

Businesses, homeowners,

farmers

Public physical assets

Emergency response costs

Foregone revenue

Uninsured private assets

Livelihood assistance

Pro

tect

ion

gap

Individuals


Governments' financing options: Post-event vs pre-event

Post event Pre event

Reserve Fund

Contingent Financing

Risk transfer

Budget reallocation

Raise debt

Donor assistance

Tax increases

"From an ex-post perspective, the availability of insurance offers the best mitigation approach against real and fiscal consequences of disasters"World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 5564, 2011

5


Efficient way to cope with financial consequences of natural catastrophes

Guaranteed access to required funds for recovery, up to agreed cover limits

Speedy delivery, especially with innovative instruments such as parametric solutions

Pre-determined premium allows for budget planning certainty, particularly in multi-year contracts

No payback obligation (in contrast to loans)

Reduction of a country’s contingent liabilities to acceptable levels (positive implications for sovereign rating and currency)

Limits the pressure to divert own funds from other projects to affected areas

Advantages of (re)insurance and capital market solutions

6


Public sector

Political and legal power to set framework conditions that facilitate adaptive responses by individuals, the public and the private sectors

Typically operates under significant financial constraints. As costs of disasters rise, the ability of governments to cope with natural disasters will be stretched even further

Private sector

Financial resources but lacks the power to set up the required frameworks

Broad geographical diversification which is required to absorb these risks in a cost-efficient way

Valuable knowledge and experience in dealing with catastrophe risk management

Combined response by private and public sector

The effective reduction and financing of catastrophic risks requires a combined response by both private and public sector players

7

OECD-ADBI Seminar on Disaster Risk Financing in Asia | June 2016 8

Case study Mexico: MultiCat - Funding for immediate relief efforts after disasters

Solution featuresInsured perils: Earthquake and hurricanePayments to be used for immediate emergency relief after a disasterParametric catastrophe bond: USD 315 mTrigger type: Index

Earthquake: physical trigger (quake magnitude)Hurricane: physical trigger (barometric pressure)

Time horizon: October 2012 – November 2015Renewed cat bond launched through the World Bank’s MultiCatfacility and third cat bond for Mexico

Involved partiesInsured: Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN) of MexicoReinsured: AGROASEMEX S.A.Arranger: World Bank TreasurySwiss Re: Co-lead manager and joint bookrunner

Payouts to date2015: USD 50m after hurricane Patricia


Case study Caribbean:Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF)

Solution featuresThe CCRIF offers parametric hurricane and earthquake insurance policies to 16 CARICOM governmentsThe policies provide immediate liquidity to participating governments when affected by events with a probability of 1 in 15 years or overMember governments choose how much coverage they need up to an aggregate limit of USD 100 mThe mechanism will be triggered by the intensity of the event (modelled loss triggers)The facility responded to events and made payments:

Involved partiesReinsurers: Swiss Re and other overseas reinsurersReinsurance program placed by Guy CarpenterDerivative placed by World Bank Treasury

Payouts to date2010: Haiti USD7.7m (earthquake), Barbados USD 8.5m (hurricane), St. Lucia USD 3.2m (hurricane), St. Vincent & The Grenadines USD 1.1 (hurricane), Anguilla USD 4.2m (hurricane).2008: Turks & Caicos USD 6.3m (hurricane)2007: St. Lucia USD 418k (hurricane), Dominica USD 528k (hurricane).


Case study Caribbean:CCRIF Excess Rainfall Coverage

Solution features• In July 2014, the CCRIF added a third peril to their program by

offering excess rainfall insurance to their members• 12 countries purchased the coverage that triggers when the

modelled loss exceeds the defined country threshold • Loses are determined based on 2-3 day rainfall totals and the

country exposure values • Utilizes Kinetic Analysis Corporation’s (KAC) high resolution data

that is a compilation of satellite and ground observations • Deductible for the CCRIF is USD 7 m and Swiss Re provides

reinsurance with a limit of USD 35 m

Involved parties• Reinsurer: Swiss Re • Product designed by: CCRIF, KAC and Swiss Re• Calculation agent: KAC

Payouts to date• Anguilla: USD 493k (Oct 2014) and USD 559k (Nov 2014)• St Kitts and Nevis: USD1m (Nov 2014)• Barbados: USD1.2m (Nov 2014)


Case study Asia-Pacific: Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI)

Solution featuresFirst-of-its-kind sovereign catastrophe risk transfer in the Asia Pacific regionThe PCRAFI offers parametric earthquake (including tsunami) and tropical cyclone insurance policies to 6 pilot Pacific Island countries: Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu, Cook IslandsThe policies provide immediate liquidity to participating governments in the aftermath of a disaster with an approximate probability of 1 in 15 yearsInsurance coverage provided to the 6 Pacific Island countries is about USD 67mSimilarly to CCRIF, the swap payout will be triggered by the intensity of the event (modelled loss approach)

Involved partiesWorld Bank, ADB, Japan MoFDerivative placed by World Bank Treasury

Payouts to date2014: Kingdom of Tonga USD1.27m following typhoon Ian2015: Vanuatu USD 1.9m following cyclone Pam


Thank you

Vincent Eck

Head Asia-PacificGlobal Partnerships

Swiss Reinsurance Company12 Marina View, #16-01,

Asia Square Tower 2, Singapore 018961,

Singapore

Tel +65 6232 [email protected]

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MANAGING PUBLIC ASSET EXPOSURES - oecd.org · Kecelakaan Transportasi Kecelakaan Industri Gelombang Pasang/Abrasi Puting Beliung Kekeringan Banjir Banjir dan Tanah Longsor Tanah Longsor