Manufacturing and Trade Why activism is essential

Manufacturing and TradeManufacturing and Trade

Why activism is essentialWhy activism is essential

The Manufacturing SectorThe Manufacturing Sector

• By itself – the 5By itself – the 5thth largest “economy largest “economy globallyglobally

• Employs 14.3 million directly, millions Employs 14.3 million directly, millions more indirectly. (Impacts 44 million jobs)more indirectly. (Impacts 44 million jobs)

• Consumes over 60% of R&D in U.S.Consumes over 60% of R&D in U.S.

• Is the country’s engine of growth and Is the country’s engine of growth and wealthwealth

• And, the sector is in big troubleAnd, the sector is in big trouble

The Problem StatementThe Problem Statement

Manufacturing in this country is subject to Manufacturing in this country is subject to massive regulation, pays for social massive regulation, pays for social issues handled by governments issues handled by governments elsewhere, is under attack by well elsewhere, is under attack by well orchestrated offshore opponents. Only orchestrated offshore opponents. Only recently is appropriate attention being recently is appropriate attention being paid to this sector of the economy. The paid to this sector of the economy. The problems have been studied to death problems have been studied to death and the time for action is now. We are and the time for action is now. We are running out of time.running out of time.

The EvidenceThe Evidence

• Studies point to several critical issuesStudies point to several critical issues– Department of Commerce StudyDepartment of Commerce Study– National Association of Manufacturers National Association of Manufacturers

StudyStudy

• They partially address massive job They partially address massive job loss issues in U.S. manufacturingloss issues in U.S. manufacturing

U.S. Manufacturers HaveU.S. Manufacturers Have Suffered Massive Job Losses Suffered Massive Job Losses

14

15

16

17

18

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

In M

illi

ons

of U

.S. M

anuf

actu

ring

Job

s

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Series CES3000000001.

Department of Commerce Department of Commerce StudyStudy• Developed via “field” hearings and Developed via “field” hearings and

academic input – parallels NAM findings academic input – parallels NAM findings but puts government spin on solutionsbut puts government spin on solutions

• Highlighted recommendations – Economic Highlighted recommendations – Economic environmentenvironment– Make tax cuts permanentMake tax cuts permanent– Reduce tax complexity and compliance costsReduce tax complexity and compliance costs– Permanent tax credit for R&DPermanent tax credit for R&D– Expand access to low cost capitalExpand access to low cost capital

DOC StudyDOC Study

• ““Investing in innovation”Investing in innovation”– Strengthen patent systemStrengthen patent system– Review federal R&D emphasisReview federal R&D emphasis– MEP enhancement (manufacturing extension MEP enhancement (manufacturing extension

partnership)partnership)– Promote technology transferPromote technology transfer– Cooperative research programsCooperative research programs

• Lowering Costs ProposalsLowering Costs Proposals– Regulatory reviewRegulatory review– Health care costsHealth care costs– Legal reformLegal reform– Energy legislationEnergy legislation

DOC StudyDOC Study

• Education, Retraining, Economic Education, Retraining, Economic DiversificationDiversification– Training partnership initiativeTraining partnership initiative– Analyze adequacy of existing trainingAnalyze adequacy of existing training– Personal re-employment accounts (to Personal re-employment accounts (to

finance retraining)finance retraining)– Economic adjustment programs for Economic adjustment programs for

communities in transitioncommunities in transition– ““Transform” workforce development Transform” workforce development

programsprograms

DOC StudyDOC Study

• Promote open markets/level playing Promote open markets/level playing fieldfield– ““Encourage” economic growth, open Encourage” economic growth, open

trade, capital market accesstrade, capital market access– ““Negotiate” trade agreements that Negotiate” trade agreements that

benefit US manufacturersbenefit US manufacturers– ““Enforce” trade agreements/combat Enforce” trade agreements/combat

unfair tradeunfair trade– ““Reinforce promotion” of American goods Reinforce promotion” of American goods

globallyglobally

The DOC StudyThe DOC Study

• ““Enhancing” Government’s Focus on Enhancing” Government’s Focus on Manufacturing CompetitivenessManufacturing Competitiveness– Establish manufacturing councilEstablish manufacturing council– New office of Industry Analysis and Trade New office of Industry Analysis and Trade

ComplianceCompliance– Foster government coordinationFoster government coordination

But – something BIG is all but But – something BIG is all but missing.missing.

What Did the DOC Report What Did the DOC Report Really Say?Really Say?

• The Critic’s ViewThe Critic’s View– Emphasis on retraining, re-education, re-adjustment Emphasis on retraining, re-education, re-adjustment

for communities impacted by closure, educational for communities impacted by closure, educational partnershipspartnerships

– Words like explore, study, support, promote and Words like explore, study, support, promote and leverage are used throughout recommendationsleverage are used throughout recommendations

– Requires legislative changes on health care, tort Requires legislative changes on health care, tort reform, establishing new czars and oversight groupsreform, establishing new czars and oversight groups

– Opponents don’t want to address the nasty Opponents don’t want to address the nasty currency issue and it is also a difficult issue to currency issue and it is also a difficult issue to address given geo-politics – but to do nothing courts address given geo-politics – but to do nothing courts disasterdisaster

NAM Study (National NAM Study (National Association of Manufacturers)Association of Manufacturers)

• High Corporate Tax RatesHigh Corporate Tax Rates

• Cost of Health BenefitsCost of Health Benefits– Health CareHealth Care– Private PensionsPrivate Pensions

• Cost of LitigationCost of Litigation

• Cost of Regulatory ComplianceCost of Regulatory Compliance

• Energy CostsEnergy Costs

• Something BIG is missingSomething BIG is missing

Quantified Findings - NAMQuantified Findings - NAM

• US manufacturing is “penalized” for being here to US manufacturing is “penalized” for being here to the tune of a 22.4% cost disadvantage versus the tune of a 22.4% cost disadvantage versus major competing countriesmajor competing countries

• The trade playing field is not level whether related The trade playing field is not level whether related to subsidy/dumping or export incentivesto subsidy/dumping or export incentives

• Continued lack of correction is creating a serious Continued lack of correction is creating a serious talent drain from manufacturingtalent drain from manufacturing

• The damage to manufacturing will impact the The damage to manufacturing will impact the industries that depend on manufacturing as a industries that depend on manufacturing as a customercustomer

• NAM has numerous recommendations and steps to NAM has numerous recommendations and steps to address the issuesaddress the issues

The Understated IssueThe Understated Issue

• Currency manipulation and Currency manipulation and intervention overwhelms other self intervention overwhelms other self imposed cost disadvantagesimposed cost disadvantages

• Currency manipulation and Currency manipulation and intervention corrupts any concept of intervention corrupts any concept of comparative advantage (technology, comparative advantage (technology, efficiency, location, cost)efficiency, location, cost)

The Understated ElementThe Understated Element

Currency Intervention and Currency Intervention and ManipulationManipulation

What is it and what does it do?What is it and what does it do?

• Pic of ChinaPic of China

© 2003 by Prof. Werner Antweiler, University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC, Canada.Permission is granted to reproduce the above image provided that the source and copyright are acknowledged.

!

U.S. Trade Balance with ChinaU.S. Trade Balance with China

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

Bil

lio

ns

of

$

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003


!


!


!


!

• Market fundamentals have Market fundamentals have historically not set the value of the historically not set the value of the Asian currencies. Governments have!Asian currencies. Governments have!

• China’s growing trade surplus and China’s growing trade surplus and huge foreign investment inflows huge foreign investment inflows would suggest one thing – a stronger would suggest one thing – a stronger yuan – reality is vis-a-vis the U.S. yuan – reality is vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar there’s been no changedollar there’s been no change

Currency ManipulationCurrency Manipulation

Manipulated Currency ReservesManipulated Currency Reserves

Phillipines

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Singapore

India

Hong Kong

South Korea

Taiwan

China

Japan

AWASH IN DOLLARSAsia’s growing foreign reserves, in billions of dollars

Country Year-End 2003 % Change From 2002 $673.5 43%

$403.3 41%$206.6 28%

$155.4 28%$118.4 6%

$100.6 43%

$96.3 17%

$44.9 30%$42.1 6%

$36.3 15%$16.7 5%

Source: Reuters

The United States’ Current The United States’ Current Account DeficitAccount Deficit

($600)

($500)

($400)

($300)

($200)

($100)

$0

$100

'82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03

Do

llar

s In

Bil

lio

ns

The Effects of Intervention and The Effects of Intervention and ManipulationManipulation

• On ManufacturingOn Manufacturing

• On SteelOn Steel– ImportsImports– PricingPricing

• On Other industriesOn Other industries

The Dollar goes up; The Dollar goes up; Manufacturing Profits go downManufacturing Profits go down

The Dollar Goes UpThe Dollar Goes UpManufacturing Profits Go DownManufacturing Profits Go Down

Sources: Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.10; U.S. Department ofSources: Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.10; U.S. Department ofCommerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product AccountsCommerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts

Broad Real Dollar Index(right scale)

Profit Share of National Incomein Domestic Manufacturing(left scale)

19951995 19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20022002

2828

2424

2020

1616

1212

88

44

130130

115115

100100

8585

7070

5555

4040

One Trillion Dollars !One Trillion Dollars !

- $80 billion- $80 billion

Change in:Change in: Stable Dollar (‘91-’96)Stable Dollar (‘91-’96) Strong Dollar (’97-’02)Strong Dollar (’97-’02)

Trade DeficitTrade Deficit - $176 billion- $176 billion - $468 billion - $468 billion

ImportsImports

ExportsExports

$800 billion$800 billion

+ $204 billion+ $204 billion

“Six Years After” Coalition for a Sound Dollar March 2003

Overvalued Dollar Devastates Overvalued Dollar Devastates U.S. ManufacturingU.S. Manufacturing

When the Dollar When the Dollar goes up so do US goes up so do US Steel ImportsSteel Imports

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Steel Import ShareSteel Import Share(right scale)(right scale)

Fed’s BroadFed’s BroadReal DollarReal Dollar(left scale)(left scale)

Sources: Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.10; U.S. Department ofSources: Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.10; U.S. Department ofCommerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product AccountsCommerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts

Steel Prices Devastated by Overvalued DollarSteel Prices Devastated by Overvalued Dollar

200200

250250

300300

350350

400400

9292 9393 9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202

HotHot--RolledRolledColdCold--RolledRolled

450450

HistoricHistoricLowLow20012001

Source: Purchasing Magazine

Change in:Change in: Stable Dollar Stable Dollar (‘92-’96)(‘92-’96)

Strong Dollar Strong Dollar (‘97-’02)(‘97-’02)

Exports:Exports: Up $20.9 billionUp $20.9 billion Down $2.6 billionDown $2.6 billion

Imports:Imports: Up $9.2 billionUp $9.2 billion Up another $7 billionUp another $7 billion

Trade Trade Surplus:Surplus:

Rose to $27 billionRose to $27 billion Fell to $11 billionFell to $11 billion

Overvalued Dollar Hits U.S. Overvalued Dollar Hits U.S. AgricultureAgriculture

Overvalued Dollar Hits U.S. Overvalued Dollar Hits U.S. High TechHigh Tech

Change in:Change in: Stable Dollar Stable Dollar

(’92-‘96)(’92-‘96) Overvalued DollarOvervalued Dollar

(’97-‘02)(’97-‘02)

ExportsExports + $25 billion+ $25 billion - $31 billion*- $31 billion*

ImportsImports + $17 billion+ $17 billion + $50 billion+ $50 billion

Trade DeficitTrade Deficit + $35 billion + $35 billion (‘96)(‘96)

-$17 billion -$17 billion (‘02)(‘02)

Projection for 2002 based on YTD 9/02 figures. *Since 2000 peak. “Six Years After” Coalition for a Sound Dollar March 2003

U.S. Trade Balance in Advance U.S. Trade Balance in Advance TechnologyTechnology

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1999 2000 2001Bil

lio

ns

of

$

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

2002 2003

Investments Are Investments Are Down …Down …

$37 Billion$37 Billion

Status Report on the Dollar Status Report on the Dollar IssueIssue

• Administration negative on Fair Administration negative on Fair Currency Alliance 301 PetitionCurrency Alliance 301 Petition– Says they want to deal with issue in a Says they want to deal with issue in a

different mannerdifferent manner– Petition currently on hold, but will not be Petition currently on hold, but will not be

held indefinitelyheld indefinitely– Filing of 301 petition dependent on real Filing of 301 petition dependent on real

progress (can be filed at any time up to progress (can be filed at any time up to bout 60 days prior to election to be bout 60 days prior to election to be effective)effective)

Status Report on the Dollar Status Report on the Dollar IssueIssue

• Administration actions to dateAdministration actions to date– ““Jawboning”Jawboning”– Assigned special treasury representative Assigned special treasury representative

to China situationto China situation– Has offered technical support to China to Has offered technical support to China to

deal with loan problems, banking deal with loan problems, banking infrastructure problems, economic policyinfrastructure problems, economic policy

– China is sending mixed messagesChina is sending mixed messages

Status Report on the Dollar Status Report on the Dollar Issue Issue

• Industry reactions generally skepticalIndustry reactions generally skeptical

• FCA will file if no real progress madeFCA will file if no real progress made

• Mission is to keep the heat on the Mission is to keep the heat on the issueissue

Nucor Trade Position – Trade Nucor Trade Position – Trade LawsLaws• BackgroundBackground

– Prior to 1997/98Prior to 1997/98– The Impact on Nucor of the Beam CaseThe Impact on Nucor of the Beam Case

• The “201” CaseThe “201” Case– What is a 201What is a 201– Trade law abuse prior to 201Trade law abuse prior to 201– Results of 201 (even though terminated early)Results of 201 (even though terminated early)

• Curtailed illegal tradeCurtailed illegal trade• Stabilized marketsStabilized markets• Fostered environment for consolidationFostered environment for consolidation• Created mechanism for global subsidy negotiationsCreated mechanism for global subsidy negotiations

Trade Law ReformTrade Law Reform

• What are the weaknesses in current laws?What are the weaknesses in current laws?– Repeat dumping (country/product switching)Repeat dumping (country/product switching)– Major offenders provided special consideration Major offenders provided special consideration

that encourages repeat behaviorthat encourages repeat behavior– The WTO “legislation” problemThe WTO “legislation” problem

• What are the solutions?What are the solutions?– H.R. 2092 and S. 136 (Berry/Lincoln)H.R. 2092 and S. 136 (Berry/Lincoln)– H.R. 3716 (English), S.2212 (Collins, Bayh)H.R. 3716 (English), S.2212 (Collins, Bayh)– H.R. 2365 (English, Levin, Houghton, Cardin) H.R. 2365 (English, Levin, Houghton, Cardin)

and S. 1258 (Bayh) & S. 676 (Baucus) and H. and S. 1258 (Bayh) & S. 676 (Baucus) and H. Con. Res. 243 (Levin)Con. Res. 243 (Levin)

Other Trade Related Other Trade Related ReformsReforms

• Import Monitoring, Licensing and Import Monitoring, Licensing and EnforcementEnforcement

• OECD UpdateOECD Update

• The “Byrd Bill” (or CDSOA)The “Byrd Bill” (or CDSOA)

What Can YOU Do?What Can YOU Do?

• Indiana can be a pivotal state in Indiana can be a pivotal state in November!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!November!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A Survey of Indiana VotersA Survey of Indiana Voters

A summary review of the A summary review of the issues, their importance to issues, their importance to voters and their potential voters and their potential influence on candidates and influence on candidates and races in 2004races in 2004

Auburn

Profile of the survey sampleProfile of the survey sample• 100% are registered and likely voters100% are registered and likely voters

RaceOther

2%Black

6%

White92%

Political Party

Independent21%

Democratic36%

Republican42%

Don't Know2%

Employment Status

Retired39%

Unemployed7%

Part Time10%

Full Time44%

Identify the one or two most important Identify the one or two most important issues that the issues that the federal governmentfederal government should deal with.should deal with.

4%

7%

29%

34%

Iraq War/Terrorism

Jobs/Unemployment/Economy

Health Care

Education

Identify the one or two most important Identify the one or two most important issues that the issues that the state governmentstate government should should deal with.deal with.

8%

14%

15%

33%

Jobs/Unemployment/Economy

Education

Taxes

Health Care

Have free trade agreements (NAFTA, Have free trade agreements (NAFTA, WTO) been good or bad for the U.S.?WTO) been good or bad for the U.S.?

Good17%

Don't Know15%

Mixed Results

28%

Bad40%

Has the emergence of China as Has the emergence of China as economic superpower been good or economic superpower been good or bad for the U.S.?bad for the U.S.?

Good15%

Don't Know16%

Mixed Results

32%

Bad37%

Do you agree with foreign governments Do you agree with foreign governments “pegging” currencies to U.S.$, making “pegging” currencies to U.S.$, making foreign goods less expensive, and exporting foreign goods less expensive, and exporting U.S. jobs?U.S. jobs?

Agree18%

Don't Know24%

Disagree58%

Do you agree or disagree that Do you agree or disagree that “outsourcing” of U.S. service jobs is “outsourcing” of U.S. service jobs is inevitable and good for Americans?inevitable and good for Americans?

Don't know11%

Agree14%

Disagree75%

In today’s economy: Are you worried In today’s economy: Are you worried about a major wage earner losing a about a major wage earner losing a job?job?

Not Worried

53%

Don't Know1%

Worried46%

For each: A major reason, minor reason, or not a For each: A major reason, minor reason, or not a reason for U.S. job losses to foreign competitorsreason for U.S. job losses to foreign competitors

84%

81%

59%

64%

48%

46%

46%

6%

11%

21%

17%

26%

24%

30%

14%

9%

15%

20%

9%

5%

6%

6%

10%

11%

10%

15%

2%

4%Foreign pay much

lower

Investor/CEO putprofit 1st

Consumers put price1st

Foreign health/envirostandards low

Weak corp.leadership

U.S. labor unions

Foreignsubsidies/incentives

Major reason Minor reason Not a reason Don't Know

Indiana voters were asked to rate how well Indiana voters were asked to rate how well national, state legislatures have done their national, state legislatures have done their jobs “lately”jobs “lately”

23%

31%

45%

43%

26%

18%

5%

7%

1%

1%

U.S. Congress

Indiana StateLegislature

Excellent Good Fair Poor Not Sure

Indiana manufacturing job loss Indiana manufacturing job loss 2000-20032000-2003

520,000

540,000

560,000

580,000

600,000

620,000

640,000

660,000

680,000

2000 2003

Manufacturing employment

86,00086,000 manufacturing manufacturing

jobs lost since 2000jobs lost since 2000

U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The issue and the electionsThe issue and the elections

• Indiana can be a pivotal state in Indiana can be a pivotal state in NovemberNovember

• 98% of the state’s voters say that the 98% of the state’s voters say that the economy is important to their voteeconomy is important to their vote

• Almost 23% of Indiana’s workers are Almost 23% of Indiana’s workers are in manufacturingin manufacturing

Indiana voterIndiana voter

• Almost 90% of eligible voters are Almost 90% of eligible voters are registered (4 million out of 4.5 registered (4 million out of 4.5 million)million)

• Recent Indiana voter turnout: Recent Indiana voter turnout: 56%56%

Indiana Statewide AnalysisIndiana Statewide Analysis2000 Gubernatorial Race2000 Gubernatorial Race

908,285

1,232,525

2,179,413

4,016,440

4,448,000

Total Eligible Voters

Registered Voters

Total Voters

Winner by 324,240 Votes

Loser

42%

56%

DeKalb County AnalysisDeKalb County Analysis(92 Counties in Indiana)(92 Counties in Indiana)

6,599

6,819

14,126

25,683

28,986

Total Eligible Voters

Registered Voters

Total Voters

Winner by 220 Votes

Loser

49%

51%

Your vote can make a big Your vote can make a big differencedifference

For exampleFor example

• 843843 Nucor employees in DeKalb County Nucor employees in DeKalb County

• Voting power – Voting power – 843843 people times people times 1.71.7 registered voters per household = registered voters per household = 1,4331,433 votes votes

• 537537 votes -- The margin of victory in votes -- The margin of victory in Florida in the 2000 electoral college Florida in the 2000 electoral college votevote

How can I make a How can I make a difference? difference? Four Simple Four Simple SuggestionsSuggestions1.1. Ask your elected officials how they are Ask your elected officials how they are

actively opposing currency manipulation actively opposing currency manipulation and other unfair trade practicesand other unfair trade practices



2.2. Ask your local officials to pass resolutions Ask your local officials to pass resolutions and to write your congressional delegation and to write your congressional delegation to urge immediate actionto urge immediate action




3.3. Spread the word – to friends, business Spread the word – to friends, business people, your community – on the negative people, your community – on the negative impacts of unfair trade, currency impacts of unfair trade, currency manipulationmanipulation




3.3. Spread the word – to friends, business Spread the word – to friends, business people, your community – on the negative people, your community – on the negative impacts of unfair trade, currency impacts of unfair trade, currency manipulationmanipulation

4.4. Register to vote. Vote for candidates who Register to vote. Vote for candidates who will stand up for U.S. jobswill stand up for U.S. jobs

How can I make a How can I make a difference? difference? Seek support of elected officials Seek support of elected officials for a comprehensive, pro-for a comprehensive, pro-manufacturing platformmanufacturing platform

• Tort reformTort reform

• Tax reform & tax reliefTax reform & tax relief

• Containing health care costsContaining health care costs

• Cost benefit analysis of new Cost benefit analysis of new regulatory requirementsregulatory requirements

American and Indiana Jobs American and Indiana Jobs Make Your Vote ImportantMake Your Vote Important

•Some foreign governments and Some foreign governments and multi-national corporate interests multi-national corporate interests want you to think your vote want you to think your vote doesn’t countdoesn’t count

•Turn the trade war around – help Turn the trade war around – help us restore fair trade with your us restore fair trade with your votesvotes

American and Indiana Jobs American and Indiana Jobs Make Your Vote ImportantMake Your Vote Important

• Indiana voter survey: 37% see Indiana voter survey: 37% see China’s emergence as economic China’s emergence as economic superpower as bad for U.S., and superpower as bad for U.S., and 58% disagree with foreign 58% disagree with foreign governments pegging their currency governments pegging their currency to U.S. dollarto U.S. dollar

• Take action and win the trade warTake action and win the trade war

Documents

Manufacturing and Trade Why activism is essential