Manweiler Telecom Consulting, LLC Gila and Pinal Counties Community Telecom Assessment Phase II Report

Manweiler Telecom Consulting, LLC

Gila and Pinal Gila and Pinal CountiesCounties

CommunityCommunity Telecom Telecom AssessmentAssessment

Phase II ReportPhase II Report


PHASE IIPHASE II

Infrastructure Inventory

Business Model Development


Infrastructure Infrastructure InventoryInventory


ProvidersProviders

Gila CountyGila County


Payson/ Star ValleyPayson/ Star Valley

• Broadband– CableVision– Canyon Broadband

• Dial Up– Cybertrails– McLeod– Qwest– The River


Pine/ StrawberryPine/ Strawberry

• Broadband– Canyon Broadband

(future)

• Dial Up– McLeod– Qwest


Payson - CurrentPayson - Current


Payson - FuturePayson - Future


Globe/Miami/ClaypoolGlobe/Miami/Claypool

• Broadband– CableONE– CopperNET

• Dial Up– Cybertrails– McLeod– Qwest– The River


Globe Cluster - CurrentGlobe Cluster - Current


Globe Cluster - FutureGlobe Cluster - Future


ProvidersProviders

Pinal CountyPinal County


Apache Junction/Gold Apache Junction/Gold CanyonCanyon

• Broadband– Mediacom– McLeod– Triad Wireless

• Dial Up– Cybertrails– McLeod– Qwest


Apache Junction - CurrentApache Junction - Current


Apache Junction - FutureApache Junction - Future


Arizona CityArizona City

•Dial Up–Casa Grande Internet

–Cybertrails–GiGoNET–McLeod–Qwest


Arizona City - CurrentArizona City - Current


Arizona City - FutureArizona City - Future


Casa GrandeCasa Grande

• Broadband– Cox in

June ‘04– C2i2– CG

Internet– Netbeam

• Dial Up– C2i2– CG Internet– Cybertrails– GiGoNET– McLeod– Qwest


CoolidgeCoolidge

• Broadband– CableAmeri

ca– CG Internet– Qwest– Netbeam

• Dial Up– CG Internet– Cybertrails– McLeod– Qwest


Eloy/ToltecEloy/Toltec

• Broadband– AZT1

• Dial Up– CG

Internet– Cybertrail

s– GiGoNET– McLeod– Qwest


Casa Grande - CurrentCasa Grande - Current


Casa Grande - FutureCasa Grande - Future


Eloy/Toltec - CurrentEloy/Toltec - Current


Eloy/Toltec - FutureEloy/Toltec - Future


Stanfield - CurrentStanfield - Current


Stanfield - FutureStanfield - Future


FlorenceFlorence

• Broadband– CableAmeri

ca– Qwest– GiGoNET in

‘04

• Dial Up– CG

Internet– Cybertrail

s– GiGoNET– McLeod– Qwest


Florence - CurrentFlorence - Current


Florence - FutureFlorence - Future


Gila River AreaGila River Area

• Broadband– Orbitel Communications– GRTI


Maricopa - CurrentMaricopa - Current


Maricopa - FutureMaricopa - Future


KearnyKearny

• Broadband– CopperNE

T

• Dial-Up– CopperNE

T– McLeod– Qwest– The River


Kearny - CurrentKearny - Current


Kearny - FutureKearny - Future


SuperiorSuperior

• Dial Up– McLeod– Qwest


Superior - CurrentSuperior - Current


Superior - FutureSuperior - Future


ProvidersProvidersCommunity Video Cable Modem DSL Wireless Dial Up VOIP GILA COUNTY Payson/Star Valley CableVision (D) CableVision Canyon

Broadband Cybertrails, McLeod, Qwest, The River

Future-Cablevision

Pine/Strawberry Future-Canyon Broadband

McLeod, Qwest

Globe/Claypool/Miami CableONE (D) CableONE CopperNET Cybertrails, McLeod, Qwest, The River

PINAL COUNTY Apache Jct/Gold Canyon

Mediacom (D) Future-HDTV

Mediacom McLeod Qwest

Triad Wireless – Gold Canyon

Cybertrails, McLeod, Qwest

Arizona City Eagle West Qwest – early ‘04

Casa Grande Internet, Cybertrails, GiGoNET, McLeod, Qwest

Casa Grande Cox Cox – 6/’04 C2i2, CG Internet, Qwest

Netbeam C2i2, CG Internet, Cybertrails, GiGoNET, McLeod, Qwest

Future-Cox digital phone

Coolidge CableAmerica (D) CableAmerica CG Internet, Qwest

Netbeam CG Internet, Cybertrails, McLeod, Qwest

’04-CableAmerica w/Vonnage

Eloy/Toltec Eagle West Qwest 2/04 AZT-1 CG Internet, Cybertrails, GiGoNET, McLeod, Qwest

Florence CableAmerica (D) CableAmerica Qwest ’04 Gigonet in ‘04 CG Internet, Cybertrails, GiGoNET, McLeod, Qwest

’04-Cable America w/Vonnage

Gila River Orbitel (D) Orbital – Rancho El Dorado

GRTI GRTI Future - Orbital

Kearny Eagle West CopperNET CopperNET, McLeod, Qwest, The River

Superior Eagle West McLeod, Qwest


Providers Providers (cont’d)(cont’d) Provider Markets Products 0 Qwest All markets except Gila River DSL, Dial Up 1 AZT-1 Eloy, Toltec Wireless 2 C2i2 Casa Grande Dial Up 3 CableAmerica Coolidge, Florence Digital TV, BB

Modem, VOIP (future)

4 CableONE Claypool, Globe, Miami Digital TV, BB Modem, HDTV

5 CableVision Payson, Star Valley, Oxbow, Round Valley Digital TV, VOIP (future)

6 Canyon Broadband

Payson, Star Valley, Round Valley, Pine/Strawberry (future) Wireless

7 Casa Grande Internet

Arizona City, Casa Grande, Coolidge, Eloy/Toltec, Florence Dial Up; DSL (Casa Grande, Coolidge)

8 CopperNet Claypool, Globe, Kearny, Miami Wireless 9 Cox Casa Grande Digital Video, BB

Modem (6/04) 10 Cybertrails Apache Jct, Arizona City, Casa Grande, Coolidge,

Eloy/Toltec, Florence, Globe, Miami, Payson, Pine, Stanfield, Star Valley, Strawberry

Dial Up, Wireless (Casa Grande, Payson)

11 Eagle West Arizona City, Eloy/Toltec, Florence Gardens, Kearny, Superior

Cable TV (analog)

12 GiGoNET Arizona City, Arizona Farms, Cactus Forest, Caliente, Casa Grande, Coolidge, Country Thunder, Dahlia Farms, Eloy, Florence, Florence Gardens, Maricopa, Valley Farms

Dial Up, Wireless in future (Florence)

13 McLeod Dial-up in all communities; DSL in Apache Junction Dial Up, DSL 14 Mediacom Apache Jct, Gold Canyon, Queen Creek, Queen Valley Digital video, BB

modem, HDTV (future)

15 Netbeam Casa Grande, Coolidge, Arizona City, Eloy, Florence (future)

Wireless

16 Orbitel Rancho El Dorado Digital video, BB modem, HDTV

17 The River Globe, Kearny, Payson, Pine Dial Up 18 Triad Wireless Gold Canyon, Apache Jct (Future) Wireless 19 GRTI Gila River Reservation DSL, Dial Up 20 SACTUI San Carlos Apache Reservation Dial Up


Providers Providers (cont’d)(cont’d)


QWESTQWEST

• DSL– Apache Junction, Coolidge,

Casa Grande available now– Florence, 2004 – Maricopa, December 2003– Eloy, February 2004– Arizona City, early 2004


QWEST (cont’d)QWEST (cont’d)

• INFRASTRUCTURE– Complete fiber into Superior

& Safford– Upgrade microwave radio

connection into Globe– 12 more miles to finish fiber

ring to Payson from Tonto Creek, Camp Verde and Pine


McLeod USAMcLeod USA• CLEC (reseller, QWEST

network)• Long Distance• Data Services • “Primary Local

Telecommunications Provider” for:– K-Mart– General Motors– Walgreens


McLeod USA McLeod USA (cont’d)(cont’d)

Service Location

PINAL DSL (Broadband) Apache Junction

Frame Relay Entire County

Dedicated Internet Entire County

Private Line Entire County

Dial up Internet Entire County

Remote Access VPN Entire County

GILA Frame Relay Entire County

Dedicated Internet Entire County

Private Line Entire County

Dial up Internet Entire County

Remote Access VPN Entire County


McLeod USA (cont’d)McLeod USA (cont’d)The McLeod USA Network

As of September 30, 2003: 38 ATM switches, 604 colocations, 44 voice switches, and 435 DSLAMS


Gila River Telecommunications, Gila River Telecommunications, Inc.Inc.

(GRTI)(GRTI)• Serves Gila River Indian Community• 3,800 lines (48% business)• 8 Central Offices (DMS10) & remotes• Fiber Optic backbone• 117 miles fiber, 342 buried copper• Offers Cellular, Dial-up Internet and

DSL services


GRTI (cont’d)GRTI (cont’d)

• VPN Intranet for 75 tribal office sites

• Gigabit Ethernet for Justice Center and Admin/Educational Complex in Sacaton

• OC-12 collapsed SONET ring (plans to upgrade to OC-48 with redundant loops in the future)


San Carlos Apache San Carlos Apache Telecommunications Utility, Telecommunications Utility,

Inc. (SCATUI)Inc. (SCATUI)• 2,500 subscribers• Fiber optic cable backbone

with digital switch technology• Fiber optic connection to

Safford (under construction)• Considering feasibility of

extending fiber link to Globe• USDA grant recipient to

provide ADSL service to community


Business Business Model Model

DevelopmentDevelopment


Projected Market Projected Market PotentialPotential

Price + Demand Determines Return


Market Potential Market Potential (cont’d)(cont’d)

• Demand– Residential households

projections based on Census Data (Federal and State)

– Business growth based on historical data and future economic plans

– Penetration statistics based on industry data plus information provided by ISPs

– High/Medium/Low bandwidth estimates determined by market characteristics


Market Potential Market Potential (cont’d)(cont’d)

• Statistics Sources– US Census– Arizona Dept of Economic

SecurityDivision of Employee Services and SupportResearch Administration

– Grand Canyon State Poll, Northern Arizona University

– Dun & Bradstreet– “The Local Exchange in 2015”,

Technologies Futures, Inc.


Educational Educational DemandDemand

Upgrade in12 – 18 Months

E-RateRecipients

Pinal 39% 92%

Gila 37% 87%


Pinal Pinal CountyCounty

DISTRICT BANDWIDTH ANTICIPATED

Apache Junction T-1 T-1

Casa Grande Elem. 768K T-1

Casa Grande Union HS

T-1 10 Mbps

CAVIT At CAC*

Coolidge Unified T-1

Eloy Elementary T-1 2 T-1s

Florence Unified T-1 10 Mbps

J.O. Combs Elem. T-1

Mammoth-San Manuel

T-1

Maricopa T-1

Oracle Elementary T-1

Picacho Elementary T-1


Pinal Pinal CountyCounty

DISTRICT BANDWIDTH

ANTICIPATED

Ray Unified (Kearny) 2 T-1s 3 T-1s

[Red Rock Elementary]

56K

Sacaton Elementary T-1

Santa Cruz Valley HS

T-1

Stanfield T-1

Superior 2 T-1s 4 T-1s

Toltec T-1

OTHER SCHOOLS

Casa Blanca Community School

T-1* CAVIT (Central Arizona Valley Institute of Technologyis the 19th Pinal school district. It shares network accessof Central Arizona College.


Gila Gila CountyCounty

DISTRICT BANDWIDTH ANTICIPATED

Globe T-1 2 T-1s

Hayden-Winkelman

T-1

Miami T-1

Payson 3 T-1s T-3 (45 Mbps)

Pine/Strawberry T-1

San Carlos T-1

Tonto Basin 512 Kbps (satellite)

[Young] 512 Kbps (satellite)

OTHER SCHOOLS

St. Charles School (San Carlos)

DSL


Health Care Health Care DemandDemand

BANDWIDTH

ANTICIPATED

Casa Grande Regional Medical Center

1 T-1s DS-3 or more

Cobre Valley Medical Center

T-1 DS-3

HuHuKam Hospital T-1

Payson Regional Medical Center

T-1 DS-3 or more

Pinal Gila Regional Behavioral Health Association (Apache Junction)

3 T-1s


Gila Gila CountyCountyGOVERNMENT BANDWIDTH ANTICIPATE

D

Globe Dial-up Multiple T-1s

Hayden-Winkelman

Dial-up Fractional T-1

Miami Dial-up Fractional T-1

Payson T-1 + Wireless

100 Mbps

Pine/Strawberry Dial-up

Gila County T-1 DS-3


Pinal Pinal CountyCountyGOVERNMENT BANDWIDTH ANTICIPATE

D

Apache Junction 2 M (ATM-library)

Multiple T-1s

Arizona City T-1 (sheriff) T-1

Casa Grande 4 T-1s DS-3 or more

Coolidge 512 Kbps Satellite

Multiple T-1s

Eloy Dial-up T-1 or more

Florence 3 T-1s 5 T-1s

Kearny 512 Kbps Satellite

T-1 or more

Mammoth 512 Kbps Satellite

Maricopa T-1

Sacaton-Gila River

Multiple T-1s

Superior/CAAG Dial-up Multiple T-1s

Pinal County DS-3


Revenue Revenue ProjectionsProjections

• Pricing Assumptions– Prices for products based on

current marketplace; high/med decrease 5% per year

– T-1 Rates include backhaul charges– Residential equipment is leased– Public/Private equipment prices for

DSL decrease 10% annually; free from Year 6 -10

– Install/Activation fees decrease 15% per year


Potential Data RevenuesPotential Data RevenuesPotential Data Transmission Services

Revenue for Gila and Pinal Counties

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5GILA + PINAL COUNTIESGila County 3,017$ 3,243$ 3,650$ 4,179$ 4,820$ Pinal County 5,378 8,120 10,551 12,903 15,174 TOTAL 8,395$ 11,363$ 14,200$ 17,082$ 19,995$

GILA COUNTYGlobe/Claypool/Miami 873$ 922$ 1,038$ 1,144$ 1,243$ Payson/Pine/Strawberry/Star Valley 2,144 2,321 2,612 3,034 3,578 TOTAL GILA COUNTY 3,017$ 3,243$ 3,650$ 4,179$ 4,820$

PINAL COUNTYFlorence 222$ 280$ 312$ 359$ 419$ Casa Grande/Arizona/Coolidge/Eloy 2,428 4,390 6,031 7,620 9,162 Apache Junction 2,473 3,200 3,928 4,591 5,202 Gila River (Sacaton) 87 77 79 80 82 Kearny 135 142 153 165 178 Superior 33 31 48 88 131 TOTAL PINAL COUNTY 5,378$ 8,120$ 10,551$ 12,903$ 15,174$


Potential Data Revenues – Type of Potential Data Revenues – Type of RevenueRevenue

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5GILA/PINAL COUNTIESResidential Access 4,163$ 5,768$ 7,017$ 8,254$ 9,465$ Non-Residential Access 2,788 3,877 5,012 6,186 7,393 Residential CPE 1,033 1,573 2,028 2,509 3,015 Non-Residential CPE 174 81 83 75 68 Installation 238 63 61 57 54 Total Revenues 8,395$ 11,363$ 14,200$ 17,082$ 19,995$

CUMULATIVE 8,395$ 19,758$ 33,958$ 51,040$ 71,035$

GILA COUNTYResidential Access 1,425$ 1,584$ 1,729$ 1,877$ 2,026$ Non-Residential Access 1,078$ 1,324$ 1,547$ 1,878$ 2,318$ Residential CPE 246$ 288$ 328$ 371$ 416$ Non-Residential CPE 81$ 16$ 15$ 20$ 25$ Installation 187$ 31$ 30$ 33$ 36$ Total Revenues 3,017$ 3,243$ 3,650$ 4,179$ 4,820$

CUMULATIVE 3,017$ 6,260$ 9,910$ 14,089$ 18,909$

PINAL COUNTYResidential Access 2,738$ 4,184$ 5,288$ 6,378$ 7,439$ Non-Residential Access 1,710 2,553 3,465 4,308 5,075 Residential CPE 786 1,286 1,700 2,138 2,599 Non-Residential CPE 93 65 68 55 43 Installation 51 32 31 24 18 Total Revenues 5,378$ 8,120$ 10,551$ 12,903$ 15,174$

CUMULATIVE 5,378$ 13,498$ 24,048$ 36,951$ 52,126$


Potential Bandwidth - Potential Bandwidth - ResidentialResidential

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5ResidentialGila CountyMedium 1,710 1,889 2,076 2,273 2,480 Low 838 1,037 1,247 1,469 1,703 Total Medium & Low BW 2,549 2,926 3,323 3,742 4,183

Pinal CountyMedium 5,342 7,284 9,354 11,533 13,817 Low 2,350 3,022 3,763 4,541 5,355 Total Medium & Low BW 7,692 10,306 13,117 16,073 19,173

Total ResidentialMedium 7,052 9,173 11,431 13,806 16,297 Low 3,189 4,059 5,009 6,010 7,058 Total Medium & Low BW 10,241 13,232 16,440 19,816 23,355


Potential Bandwidth – Potential Bandwidth – Gov’t/Edu/Med/NP/Comc’lGov’t/Edu/Med/NP/Comc’l

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5Gila CountyHigh 55 70 86 121 158 Medium 163 215 271 326 385 Low 229 253 278 371 473 Total 447 538 635 818 1,016

Pinal CountyHigh 116 164 219 277 342 Medium 213 339 483 611 759 Low 304 519 766 888 1,026 Total 633 1,021 1,468 1,775 2,126

Gila and PinalHigh 171 234 305 397 500 Medium 376 554 754 937 1,143 Low 533 772 1,043 1,259 1,499 Total 1,080 1,560 2,103 2,593 3,142


Potential Options: Potential Options:

• Providers can insert demand into their own cost models

• Counties/Munis develop/publish Request for Proposals

• Counties/Munis design, engineer, RFP & build a backbone network

• Incumbent providers have information to perhaps enhance facilities/products offered


Next StepsNext Steps

• Approval of draft phase II report

• Start of Phase III, upon approval of draft


InformationInformation

• http://co.pinal.az.us• Click on Pinal/Gila

Community Telecom Assessment

• Contact:– Lisa Bergeron– (520) 866-6690

http://co.pinal.az.us/


Gila and Pinal Gila and Pinal CountiesCountiesCommunityCommunity Telecom Telecom AssessmentAssessment

Documents

Manweiler Telecom Consulting, LLC Gila and Pinal Counties Community Telecom Assessment Phase II Report