CSIRO researchers have mapped latestestimates of methane emissions from

livestock. By checking methaneconcentrations in air at the Cape GrimBaseline Air Pollution Station in Tasmania,scientists can ‘back track’ to check theaccuracy of the estimates.

Results from this work will help in future tocheck Australia’s national greenhouse gasinventory. Under the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change, countriesare obliged to report on greenhouse gasemissions such as methane.

‘The map is a tool to verify Australia’smethane emissions,’ says Mr Simon Bentley.

Livestock are responsible for about 90 percent of Australia’s methane emissions in theagriculture sector. Australia’s cattle and sheepproduce 3 million tonnes of methane eachyear. Other sources of methane are fossil fuelextraction and waste disposal, as well asnatural sources such as wetlands and termites.

‘Most of the livestock methane comes fromcattle and sheep burps, with a smalladditional source being animal wastes,’ saysMr Bentley.

A typical cow burps 280 litres of methaneeach day, the result of microbial digestion offodder in its stomach. The type of food that

the cow eats affects the amount of methaneproduced. Sheep produce about 25 litres ofmethane each day.

‘To create the methane map, we calculatedhow emissions vary from place to place andbetween seasons,’ says Mr Bentley.

The map is based on livestock statistics fromthe Australian Bureau of Statistics for over1300 different areas. Methane emissionsfrom each area were calculated using datafrom Australia’s national greenhouse gasinventory.

Methane emissions are converted toatmospheric concentrations within anatmospheric transport model run by MrBentley and colleague Dr Ying Ping Wangfor verification against measuredconcentrations.

To help reduce livestock methane emissions,researchers at CSIRO Livestock Industrieshave been developing a vaccine that reducesgas release from animals while increasingliveweight gains.

Issue 9

Oct 2000

Newsletter of CSIRO Atmospheric Research

Mapping methane emissions from livestock

Methane emissions from Australian livestock.

For more information please contact:Simon Bentley, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4653; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: simon.bentley@dar.csiro.au

2

Australia’s new hybrid cars will make asignificant contribution to reducing air

pollution in our cities. They are expected tobe over 90% cleaner than the average petrolpassenger car on the road today.

The vehicles could also lower greenhouse gasemissions by over 70% compared to averagecars now on the road, says Dr GraemePearman, Chief of CSIRO AtmosphericResearch.

‘The aXcessaustralia car and the HoldenECOmmodore are an enormously positivedevelopment for the environment,’ says Dr Pearman.

CSIRO and more than 80 industrycollaborators developed the aXcessaustraliavehicle, which is powered by an electricmotor and has a fuel-efficient engine to drivethe generator that charges the batteries.

The Holden ECOmmodore includes state-of-the art CSIRO battery and capacitortechnology.

Motor vehicles are responsible for much ofthe air pollution in our major cities. InSydney, cars release 91% of the carbonmonoxide in the air, 82% of the oxides ofnitrogen and 49% of volatile organiccompounds, such as benzene. Cars emit one-third of the dangerous tiny particles that arepresent in Sydney’s air.

‘The new cars emit just a small fraction ofpollutants that cause smog,’ says Dr Pearman.

‘If we could have 20% of cars likeaXcessaustralia or the ECOmmodore on theroad, we could reduce people’s exposure topollution by 30%,’ says Dr Pearman.

As well as offering air pollution benefits,aXcessaustralia is expected to generate just80 g of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxidefor each kilometre travelled compared withapproximately 270 g per kilometre releasedby today’s cars.

Like other cars, the hybrid cars releasegreenhouse gases such as methane as well ascarbon dioxide. There are additionalgreenhouse gas emissions, due to theelectricity needed to recharge the car.

‘Taking everything into account, includinggenerating the electricity to recharge the car,greenhouse gas emissions should drop fromover six tonnes per year from the average cartoday to less than two tonnes per year fromthe hybrid cars,’ says Dr Pearman.

As well as producing air quality andgreenhouse benefits, the hybrid-electric car isfar more economical than existing vehicles.At 28 km/L, the new car improves fueleconomy by more than 300% comparedwith the average car on the road today.

‘Anyone driving 15,000 km per year will save1250 litres of petrol. This represents a savingof more than $1000 each year,’ says Dr Pearman.

CSIRO’s calculations of the impact on airpollution of hybrid cars were done using thenewly developed air pollution model knownas TAPM. Information on pollutionemissions came from the Victorian EPA.

For more information please contact: Graeme Pearman, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4648; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: chief@dar.csiro.au

The aXcessaustralia car.

Cars to slash pollution and greenhouse gas

3

A study of atmospheric particles inAustralian cities has provided new

information on tiny particles that are believedto be most dangerous to human health.

Dr Melita Keywood’s research has identifiedfor the first time in Australia the chemicalmake-up of different sized particles in the air.Tiny particles, which can penetrate deep intothe lungs, contain toxic and cancer-causingchemicals. The chemicals include lead, blackcarbon and complex organic compounds.

The research compared atmospheric particlesin Australian cities using the samemeasurement technique at all sites. In thepast, comparisons of particle levels in airhave been difficult as State and Territoryagencies use different instruments anddifferent techniques for measuring pollution.

Particles in the air come from motor vehicleemissions, domestic wood burning, industryand natural sources, and often contribute tohaze as well as health problems.

Dr Keywood and colleagues measured levelsof particles smaller than 10 micrometres indiameter in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide,Brisbane, Canberra and Launceston duringseasons in which air pollution was expectedto be most severe.

Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Adelaidehad average particle concentrations ofbetween 20 and 25 micrograms per cubicmetre. Despite the cities’ smaller sizes, averageconcentrations in Canberra and Launcestonwere two- to three-times greater than in theother four cities, with smaller particles makingup a larger proportion of the particleconcentration in Launceston and Canberra.

‘At times, particle levels in Canberra andLaunceston are amongst the highest inAustralia,’ says Dr Keywood.

‘Domestic wood fires in winter, combinedwith light winds and the locations of the twocities in valleys, produce high pollutionreadings,’ says Dr Keywood.

Tiny particles are more likely than largerparticles to be responsible for adverse healthimpacts, with elderly and children most atrisk, along with people having existingrespiratory illnesses.

The results of this work and those from otherstudies provide important input to theongoing development of air quality standards,thus potentially reducing the health riskassociated with exposure to air pollution.

Dr Keywood’s research was sponsored byEnvironment Australia and performed incollaboration with ANSTO.

For more information please contact: Melita Keywood, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4565; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: melita.keywood@dar.csiro.au

Air pollution: size counts

Dr Melita Keywood’s measurements have shownthe chemical make-up of different sized particlesin urban air.

Queensland is getting warmer, sayscientists, continuing the trend that has

occurred during the past 100 years.

Increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are likely to raisetemperatures and increase the number ofdownpours. Tropical cyclones may alsobecome more intense.

These findings are based on CSIRO researchundertaken for the Queensland Government.

By the year 2100, CSIRO predicts that therewill be more than twice the number of hotdays between October and March and fewerthan half of the cold days from April toSeptember.

In addition, rainfall is likely to becomeheavier, although this does not necessarilymean greater annual rainfall.

‘We expect downpours to become heavier,which may mean more local flooding,’ saysDr Kevin Walsh.

‘We have also found a number of indicationsthat El Niño events will become morecommon, although this finding is stilluncertain.’

‘It is becoming more likely that tropicalcyclone intensities will increase moderatelyin Queensland in future decades.’

Increases in tropical cyclone intensities,together with rising sea level, are likely toincrease typical storm surge heights. A stormsurge, which is a dome of water pushedahead of a tropical cyclone by strong winds,is one of the most damaging aspects oftropical cyclones.

‘In Cairns, for example, predicted increasesin tropical cyclone intensity, combined withpredicted sea-level rise, are likely to raise 1-in-100 year storm surge events by about 0.4-0.7 metres,’ says Dr Walsh. ‘However, wehave not yet established the full implicationsof this change.’

CSIRO climate modelling also shows anincrease in drought frequencies inQueensland in the next century for mostmonths, although there will be considerablevariation from region to region.

Warmer seas are likely to cause coralbleaching in the Great Barrier Reef.

Bleaching is likely to become more commonduring the next 30 to 40 years, with thesouthern part of the reef affected first.

‘Unfortunately, bleaching leads to the deathof coral ecosystems, although it is still notclear how fast the reef will be able to adaptto increasing temperatures,’ says Dr Walsh.

‘It is also possible that the reef will bedamaged by increasing pollution andturbidity, fertilisers, pesticides, herbicides,and potentially by greater amounts of carbondioxide absorbed by the ocean surface.’

4

For more information please contact: Kevin Walsh, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4532; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: kevin.walsh@dar.csiro.au

Simulated number of extremely hot days permonth in central Queensland each year fromOctober to March.

Queensland warmer, with more downpours

CSIRO’s technology is being successfullymarketed around the world by an

Australian environmental company. EcotechPty Ltd, a Melbourne based equipmentmanufacturer, has manufactured and solddozens of rainwater samplers andatmospheric particle samplers toenvironmental protection agencies andconsultants in 17 countries.

CSIRO Atmospheric Research designed anddeveloped both samplers. Ecotech sells themunder licence to CSIRO, with royaltiesflowing back to research.

‘We designed the rainwater sampler in theearly 1990s,’ says Dr Greg Ayers.

‘We needed the sampler for our research,tracking acid rain and acidic particles in theair in Australia and overseas.’

The CSIRO rainwater sampler accuratelyrecords rainfall and collects and storesrainwater for subsequent chemical analysis.The device is designed to run unattended inremote locations.

‘CSIRO developed the versatile particlesampler for measuring fine particles in airoutdoors and indoors. We are especiallyinterested in these fine particles because weknow that they are the most damaging tohuman health,’ says Dr Ayers.

CSIRO has used the samplers in a study ofindoor and outdoor particle levels in air inMelbourne, Sydney, Newcastle and countryregions of New South Wales.

‘CSIRO has identified a number of areaswhere there is a clear need for sophisticated,versatile environmental monitors. Ourrelationship with CSIRO has been very strongand positive,’ says Mr Steve Chamberlain-Ward, Ecotech’s Marketing Manager.

‘Sales of the particle sampler continue to rise,especially to industry. This is likely to be avery popular product,’ he adds.

Ecotech has sold rainwater samplersthroughout Asia and to Europe and SouthAmerica. More than 60 particle samplershave been sold in the USA, UK, Portugal,Mexico and Korea.

5

For more information please contact:Greg Ayers, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4687; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: greg.ayers@dar.csiro.au

Ecotech’s Microvol particle sampler, which collectsparticles and selected gases for subsequent analysis.The instrument has been developed from aCSIRO prototype.

CSIRO and business exportenvironmental technology

This is an edited version of an article fromCSIRO’s Ecos magazine.

Researchers first noted a connection betweencarbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and El Niño and La Niña events in 1976.Analysis of 40 years of data has sincerevealed a complex but consistent relation-ship between these events and atmosphericCO2 anomalies, in particular, a sharp declinein atmospheric CO2 just before the onset ofEl Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO)events, followed by a ‘rebound’ effect.

Dr Peter Rayner says the initial, rapidresponse appears to be driven by the oceans,while the ‘rebound’ effect reflects the delayedresponse of terrestrial ecosystems to changesin temperature and precipitation.

In El Niño years the trace dips sharplydownwards, then rebounds, while in La Niñayears it swings violently upwards, beforesubsiding again. Both trends reflect themovement of several gigatonnes of carbonbetween sources and sinks in the oceans andon land (one gigatonne is one billion tonnes).

Between the extreme low of the 1982–83El Niño event, regarded as one of themost severe this century, and the high ofthe La Niña event of 1988–89, thedifference was equivalent to four billiontonnes of CO2. Clearly, any model of theglobal carbon budget must factor in El Niño as a major player.

‘We need to stress just how big these inter-annual variations in atmospheric CO2 are,’Dr Rayner says. ‘There is recent datasuggesting that the 1996–97 ENSO eventproduced an even more dramatic swing thanthose of the 1980s and early 1990s.

‘The interannual swings are equivalent tofour gigatonnes of CO2, or two-thirds of theemissions from fossil fuel burning.’

Currently, about half of the nearly six billiontonnes of CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burningare removed from the atmosphere each year.Of this amount, about two billion tonnes istaken up by the oceans. On average, a

somewhat smaller amount is stored interrestrial ecosystems, as the differencebetween photosynthesis and respiration.

‘Our quantitative understanding of this isseverely limited by the much larger year-to-year variations associated with ENSO,’ Dr Rayner says.

At first glance the CO2–ENSO relationdefies common sense: during ENSO events,the average global temperature increasesslightly, so it might be expected that globallyaveraged heat transfer to the surface layers ofthe oceans would release more dissolvedcarbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

In fact, the reverse happens. During ENSOevents, atmospheric CO2 levels initially fallsteeply, with the pattern reversing in La Niñayears. Then a ‘rebound effect’ kicks in,partially correcting these sudden excursionsfrom the norm.

Scientists have learned that the interactionsare rather more subtle and complex — theseasonality, timing and duration of ENSOevents need to be considered.

Dr Rayner says the first and most immediateeffect of an ENSO event is a change in thepattern of upwelling deep oceanic water inthe eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. A hugepool of warm, low-salinity tropical water,usually centred in the equatorial Pacificnorth-east of New Guinea, flows eastwardstowards the Pacific coast of South America.

The warm layer overrides the frigid, CO2-charged waters that normally upwell in theoceans west of South America, throttling offthe large amounts of CO2 that normallydiffuse into atmosphere in the region. Inconsequence, atmospheric CO2 levels fallsharply over the eastern Pacific.

But this is not the only effect of an ENSOevent, Dr Rayner says. ENSO also hasdramatic impacts on land, through its effecton precipitation and temperature.

‘It’s difficult to know what the aggregateeffect is, but it probably tends to drive

6

E l N i ñ o a n d a t m o s p h e r i c c a r b o n d i o x i d e c o n c e n t r a t i o n sGraeme O’Neill

7

increases in CO2 and temperature over land,particularly in the western Pacific region,’ he says.

ENSO events cause lower sea-surfacetemperatures in the western Pacific, resultingin reduced evaporation and precipitation.

The drier atmosphere leads to highertemperatures in Indonesia, acceleratingdecomposition of the litter layer of theregion’s tropical rainforest. At the same time,the plants become water-stressed and theirgrowth slows.

Accelerated decomposition and reduced CO2

intake for photosynthesis both tend toincrease CO2 in the atmosphere, and majorforest fires in the parched forests, like those inIndonesia during the severe 1997–98 ENSOevent, release even larger quantities of CO2.

‘Indonesia seems to start burning earlier inthe ENSO cycle than one might expect,because the ocean starts to cool, andevaporation from the sea surface decreases,reducing precipitation and drying the land,’Dr Rayner says.

‘Rainfall and temperature changes haveintegrated effects. They take time to bite,because the land takes time to get hotter anddry out.’

‘There is also the effect of the underlyingseasonal cycle: if the monsoonal rains arrivelate, wildfires can suddenly become muchmore severe.’

‘Modellers have no trouble making theterrestrial biosphere the big player, but theproblem is that the atmospheric signal is notcompatible with the timing and duration ofENSO events.’

Southern picture obscured by ice and algaeDr Rayner says it is not yet clear how ENSOor other climatic cycles affect CO2 sourcesand sinks in the Southern Ocean.

‘We do know that the Southern Ocean isvery active, and that it is probably a hugesink for CO2, particularly between 20 to 50° South,’ he says.

‘But that’s a major point of controversy,because while local measurements suggest itshould be a strong sink, the atmospheric datadon’t confirm it.’

The frigid water and large algal biomass ofthe Southern Ocean should draw down largeamounts of CO2, but the picture iscomplicated by the presence of vast expansesof sea ice that develop in the zone between55°S and the Antarctic coast each winter. Thesea ice seals off the cold water, preventingCO2 uptake, and shutting down algalphotosynthesis: the ice blocks what little sun-light is available during the southern winter.

Dr Rayner says in the past the ocean wasthought to be the major player in the largeinterannual fluctuations in atmospheric CO2

concentrations. But the recent studies do notsupport this belief. Despite the dramaticchanges that occur in the tropical oceanswest of Peru, the atmosphere is seeing muchmore CO2 than the oceans can generate,which implicates terrestrial processes.

For more information please contact: Peter Rayner, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4563; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: peter.rayner@dar.csiro.au

Dr Peter Rayner, studying the relationship between El Niñoevents and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.

8

More than 870 students from 29schools across Australia and the Asia

Pacific made extensive weather and airpollution measurements as part of WorldEnvironment Day, 2000.

The students shared temperature, rainfall andcloud data via the Internet, giving a snapshotof the nation’s weather. Students also trackedwind speed and direction, and haze levels.

‘Students monitored weather and air qualityfor a fortnight,’ says Ms Melissa McMahon,Australia Project Officer for GLOBE.GLOBE is an innovative, internationalInternet environmental education program.

The air pollution measurements came fromthe AirWatch program (see opposite page).

During the event, schools participated in a‘live’ Internet Web chat, with scientists fromCSIRO Atmospheric Research on duty toanswer questions.

‘The activity allowed students to learn moreabout weather and air pollution as well asgiving them a taste for how scientists doresearch,’ says Ms McMahon.

‘It was a wonderful opportunity for schoolsto contribute to a worldwide environmentalmonitoring program and establish workinglinks with other participating schools,’ saysMs McMahon.

So far, through the international GLOBEProgram, students have reported more than one million scientific observations inareas such as atmospheric, biological and soil science.

The GLOBE Australia Program iscoordinated by CSIRO Education andjointly funded by the Department of theEnvironment and Heritage and theDepartment of Education, Training andYouth Affairs.

For more information:http://www.erin.gov.au/net/ausglobe.html

CSIRO Business Manager retiresAfter a career spanning 34 years with CSIRO, Mr David Slateris retiring from CSIRO Atmospheric Research, where he hasled the business team for more than 20 years.

David has experienced at first hand virtually all the tasksassociated with supporting a world-class research laboratory.

'The biggest change I've seen over the years would have to betechnology and the increase in our contract work. Computingpower underpins everything we do and there is now so muchmore pressure on CSIRO to commercialise its research. We areconstantly on the look-out for partners to help us apply ourscientific advances,' says Mr Slater.

Mr Slater recently returned from a visit to the USA, where hehad discussions with aerospace industries regardingdevelopment of a detector invented by CSIRO to monitorpotentially lethal volcanic ash in a plane's flight path.

One of Mr Slater's proudest accomplishments was his role inthe major site developments that CSIRO undertook atAspendale in the late '80s and early '90s.

Mr David Slater

Students compare air quality across Australia

9

A irWatch is a ‘hands-on’ environmentaleducation program in which students

learn about air pollution and its causes, andare encouraged to become actively involvedin finding solutions to air quality problems.

Using methods developed for AirWatch byCSIRO, students measure fine particle andnitrogen dioxide levels, visual air quality andlocal weather conditions and contribute theirresults to a national database.

The Natural Heritage Trust funds Australia’sAirWatch program, which has strong supportfrom the Western Australian Department ofEnvironmental Protection and CSIRO.

To celebrate World Environment Day thisyear, AirWatch launched a national muralcompetition. All primary and secondaryschools in Australia were invited to enter.

Students were asked to create a mural thatshowed ‘ways to keep our air clean’. Thenational primary school winner wasMowbray Heights Primary School inTasmania. Their eye-catching, colourfulmural with the slogan, ‘Don’t be mean, keep our air clean’, illustrates ways in whichthe community can make a difference to itsair quality.

For more information please contact:Margot Finn, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4667; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: margot.finn@dar.csiro.au

The award-winning air quality mural from Mowbray Heights Primary School, Tasmania.

AirWatch program national mural competition

10

Here is a sample of the numerous paperspublished by staff of CSIRO AtmosphericResearch during the past six months. For a fulllist of our publications, please visithttp://www.dar.csiro.au/info/lib/pubsearch.html

Baines, P.G., and Cai, W.J. (2000). Analysisof an interactive instability mechanism for theAntarctic Circumpolar Wave. Journal ofClimate, 13 (11): 1831–1844.

Boers, R., van Lammeren, A., and Feijt, A.(2000). Accuracy of cloud optical depthretrievals from ground-based pyranometers.Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology,17 (7): 916–927.

Enting, I.G. (2000). Constraints on theatmospheric carbon budget from spatialdistributions of CO2. In: The carbon cycle.T.M.L. Wigley, and D.S. Schimel (editors).New York: Cambridge University Press. p.115–124.

Frederiksen, J.S., Dix, M.R., and Davies, A.G. (2000). A new eddy diffusionparameterisation for the CSIRO GCM.Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research.(CSIRO Atmospheric Research technicalpaper; no. 44). 31 pp.

Gillett, R.W., Ayers, G.P., Selleck, P.W., Tuti, M.H.W., and Harjanto, H. (2000).Concentrations of nitrogen and sulfur speciesin gas and rainwater from six sites inIndonesia. Water Air and Soil Pollution, 120(3–4): 205–215.

Grant, I.F., Prata, A.J., and Cechet, R.P.(2000). The impact of the diurnal variation ofalbedo on the remote sensing of the dailymean albedo of grassland. Journal of AppliedMeteorology, 39 (2): 231–244.

Hunt, B.G. (2000). Natural climaticvariability and Sahelian rainfall trends. Globaland Planetary Change, 24 (2): 107–131.

Jensen, J.B., Lee, S., Krummel, P.B., Katzfey, J.J., and Gogoasa, D. (2000).Precipitation in marine cumulus andstratocumulus. Atmospheric Research, 54 (2–3):117–155.

Jones, R.N., Pittock, A.B., and Whetton, P.H. (2000). The potential impactsof climate change. In: Climate change in theSouth Pacific: impacts and responses in Australia,New Zealand, and small island states. A.Gillespie, and W.C.G. Burns (editors).(Advances in Global Change Research; 2)Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic. 7–32.

Luhar, A.K., Hibberd, M.F., and Borgas, M.S. (2000). A skewed meanderingplume model for concentration statistics in theconvective boundary layer. AtmosphericEnvironment, 34 (21): 3599–3616.

Rotstayn, L.D., Ryan, B.F., and Katzfey, J.J.(2000). A scheme for calculation of the liquidfraction in mixed-phase stratiform clouds inlarge-scale models. Monthly Weather Review,128 (4): 1070–1088.

Ryan, B.F. (2000). A bulk parameterization ofthe ice particle size distribution and the opticalproperties in ice clouds. Journal of theAtmospheric Sciences, 57 (9): 1436–1451.

Sawford, B.L., and Yeung, P.K. (2000).Eulerian acceleration statistics as adiscriminator between Lagrangian stochasticmodels in uniform shear flow. Physics of Fluids,12 (8): 2033–2045.

Walsh, K.J.E., Hennessy, K.J., Jones, R.N.,Pittock, A.B., Rotstayn, L.D., Suppiah, R.,and Whetton, P.H. (2000). Climate change inQueensland under enhanced greenhouseconditions: second annual report, 1998–1999.Aspendale, Vic.: CSIRO AtmosphericResearch. vii, 130 pp.

Wang, Y.P. (2000). A refinement to the two-leaf model for calculating canopyphotosynthesis. Agricultural and ForestMeteorology, 101 (2–3): 143–150.

Watterson, I.G. (2000). Southern midlatitudezonal wind vacillation and its interaction withthe ocean in GCM simulations. Journal ofClimate, 13 (3): 562–578.

Young, S.A., Platt, C.M.R., Austin, R.T., andPatterson, G.R. (2000). Optical propertiesand phase of some midlatitude, midlevelclouds in ECLIPS. Journal of AppliedMeteorology, 39 (2): 135–153.

Selected publications

R ising temperatures associated withclimate change are likely to lower milk

yield from cows, according to a CSIROstudy. Milk losses will be minimised, say theresearchers, if farmers adapt by providingshade and sprinklers for their herd.

The study uses a new approach, measuringfuture changes in terms of risk to farmproductivity rather than in climatic terms.

The study was conducted in the NSWHunter Valley. CSIRO is confident that thefindings will apply elsewhere in Australia.

‘Primary producers, who are users of climateinformation and often vulnerable to changesin the weather, want to know how climatechange will affect their activities,’ says DrRoger Jones.

‘We have analysed and presented the resultsof the study showing how much dairyfarmers may need to adapt to the impacts ofclimate change to maintain theirproductivity.’

‘Under current climate, dairy cows in theHunter Valley that are kept out in the openproduce about 3 per cent less milk thanthose kept under shelter.’

‘This loss represents about 230 litres of milkper cow each year for a high-yielding herd.By adapting to hot weather by using shadesheds and sprinklers, milk losses can bereduced to about 50 litres per cow per year.’

However, because of climate change likely bythe year 2030, milk losses are likely to bebetween 250 and 310 litres annually percow, depending on the rate of warming.

‘Importantly, the study has found that iffarmers use shade sheds and sprinklers, eachof their cows will produce 190 to 220 litresmore milk per year than cows left exposed inpaddocks. This would limit milk losses afteradaptation to about 60-90 litres per cow peryear. Our study shows that where measureslimiting the effect of high temperatures onlivestock are economical now, they will saveeven more money in future,’ says Dr Jones.

CSIRO has discussed its findings with stafffrom government departments, conservationcouncils and the NSW Dairy FarmersAssociation.

‘We studied hot cows because they wererelatively simple to model,’ says Dr Jones,‘and we wanted to demonstrate our methodsof risk assessment to the government andcommunity.’

The researchers are hoping to apply theirmethods to study the risk that climatechange poses for integrated catchmentmanagement in the Hunter Valley.

11

For more information please contact: Roger Jones, Ph: +61(3) 9239 4555; Fax: +61(3) 9239 4553; E-mail: roger.jones@dar.csiro.au

Maintaining milk yield in a warmer climate

Courtesy Simon Torok

A geologist with a degree from the University of New South Wales,Cecelia MacFarling recently began working towards a PhD at CSIRO

Atmospheric Research. By extracting and analysing air trapped in Antarcticice, Cecelia is studying natural variations in atmospheric greenhouse gasconcentrations that occurred in the 1000 years prior to industrialisation.

‘The main problem we have at the moment is too little data,’ explains Cecelia.

‘I am aiming for a measurement of gas levels for each decade — 100measurements in total. This will give us a lot of information aboutatmospheric variations over this period.’

The measurements will include concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and carbon-13 isotopes.

The Australian Antarctic Division, the University of Melbourne andCSIRO are co-sponsoring Cecelia’s PhD scholarship.

Cecelia is keen to visit Antarctica if she gets the chance. ‘The field workassociated with locating, drilling and extracting cores would really help toput my research into perspective,’ she says.

12

Atmosphere is the six-monthly newsletter fromCSIRO Atmospheric Research. You are welcome toreproduce material from this newsletter providing youacknowledge the source.

Material is provided for general information only.Please contact CSIRO Atmospheric Research beforetaking any action or decision on the basis of thecontents of this newsletter.

ISSN 1325–0299

Editor: Paul Holper

Design and layout: Melissa Gibson Design

CSIRO Atmospheric ResearchPB 1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia

Ph: +61 3 9239 4400 Fax: +61 3 9239 4553E-mail: chief@dar.csiro.au

Applying our researchSignificant recent and ongoing projects

Assessment of TAPM for sulfur dioxide Pasminco Port Pirie Smelter dispersion modelling Pty. Ltd.

Characterisation of emissions from domestic Environment Australia solid fuel heaters

Development of a national greenhouse gas inventory database Australian Greenhouse Office

Gas sampling and analysis National Institute of Water andAtmospheric Research, NewZealand

Optical properties of cirrus clouds Colorado State University, USA

Preparation of The Atmosphere chapter for the Environment Australia 2001 National State of the Environment report

Review of expected air quality impact of emissions New South Wales Department of from the M5 East tunnel Urban Affairs and Planning(collaborative with CSIRO Energy Technology)

Web: www.dar.csiro.au

Printed using Waterless Printing, "the m

ost environmentally clean m

ethod of printing in the world today". Printed on 50%

recycled paper.

Cecelia MacFarling examines a section ofice core drilled from Antarctica at a coldstorage facility in Melbourne.

Profile — Cecelia MacFarling