Mapping the National Strategy Toward Zero Deaths

Timothy Neuman, PEChief Highway Engineer and Highway and Traffic Safety Practice Lead, CH2M HILL

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• CH2M HILL Prime Consultant– Ida van Schalkwyk, Ph.D., Principal Investigator– Tim Neuman, Howard Preston, Tegan Houghton,

Richard Storm, Kim Kolody, Stacey Black• Midwest Research Institute

– Doug Harwood, Ingrid Potts, Jessica Hutton• Prof. Dan Turner, Univ of Alabama (Emeritus)• Independent Consultants

– Scott Newton– Quinn Brackett

NCHRP 17-51 Input to the Development of a National Highway Safety Strategy

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Where we have been?19

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

090

5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

Motor vehicle crash fatalities in the US

(1990 – 2009)

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• Fatal and serious injury crashes typically involve many contributing factors

• There are proven solutions to reducing crashes and their consequences

• Solutions incorporate the 4Es (Engineering, Enforcement, Education, Emergency Medical Services)

• Solutions include legislative actions which may require political will

What have we learned?

Source: Treat, 1979 as cited in AASHTO Highway Safety Manual

13% VEHICLE

DRIVER(human) 93%

34% ROADWAY(environment)

57

27

633

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1

5

• Strong partnerships are essential to measurable progress

What have we learned?

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Data driven processes using science-based approaches produce

measurable outcomes

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• Safety is not everyone’s top priority– Management systems do not typically address

safety data needs– Program and project development processes

need adjusting– Resource allocations emphasize other priorities

• Safety is not as well understood as it should be

• We can do much better

What else have we learned?

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The reality -- We lag behind our peers

Source: Global Status Report on Road Safety: Time for Action, WHO, 2009

High-income countries: Fatality rate per 100,000 population

US

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The nature of the problem will direct how we tackle it

Safety Culture• Organizational• Road Users

Drivers

Vehicles

Vulnerable Users

Infrastructure (multi-modal)

EMS & Public Health

(injury prevention)

Data & Analysis (access to

information and tools)

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• This must be a data driven exercise

• One size does not fit all– The nature and

severity of the problem varies

– Local culture and political climate varies as well

Addressing the Problem

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• What is the nature of the problem in the U.S.?

• What real progress have we made (and how far do we have to go) in changing the culture of driver behavior?

• What problems have emerged requiring our attention? (And what emergent problems might we expect or anticipate?)

Mapping the National Strategy means understanding reality

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The reality--‘Highway Fatalities’ is a rural problem

Source: NHTSA: Traffic Safety Facts – 2008 Data – Rural/Urban Comparison

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%61% 57%

% fa

talit

ies

in r

ural

ar

eas

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The reality-- ‘Highway Fatalities’ is to a great extent a local problem

51%

66%

54%*

2009 fatality numbers except *

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

102030405060708090

100

49%63%

31%43%

Drivers: % Restraint Used

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The reality -- It is way too early to claim victory with respect to restraint use

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The reality -- Impaired driving remains a significant and stubborn problem

19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% 48%

22%

% Drivers in fatal crashes driving with a BAC NE zero

% D

rive

rs in

fata

l cra

shes

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1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

Motorcyclist fatali-tiesMot

orcy

clis

t fa

talit

ies

Regi

ster

ed m

otor

cycl

es

Source: NHTSA Fatal Analysis Reporting System Encyclopedia, NCSA

The reality – In some areas we have regressed

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• Young driver licensing• Primary seat belt laws• Automated enforcement• Motorcycle helmets

The reality – Effective legislation is a valuable tool

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• Motorcycle fatalities• Policies to promote more walking and

bicycle use (growing the population of vulnerable users)

• Distracted driving• Vehicle size and weight (fuel efficiency and

large trucks)• Aging population (elderly drivers)

The reality – emergent problems abound

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Leadership and Commitment

• Resource allocation• System management (program development)

Re-prioritization

Investments in Continuing Research

Improved/renewed/strengthened partnerships (interagency relationships)

Access to the complete toolbox (infrastructure, education, legislation)

• Society• Within transportation agencies

Cultural Change

Mapping the National StrategyWhat will it Take?

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• What is Driving us to aspire to Toward Zero Deaths

• What is restraining or keeping us from committing to TZD or achieving this?

Discussion Framework for Roundtable

Driving Forces Restraining Forces

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

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Toward Zero Deaths

Toward • What is our sense

of urgency ?• Can we commit to

‘the long haul’?

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Imagine what it will mean if, as a nation, we can’t or won’t commit to TZD?

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

What if we had sustained a 6% annual reduction in

fatalities since 1990?

Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities in the US

303,000 lives would have been saved

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Imagine what it will mean if, as a nation, we don’t commit to TZD?

We would have saved the entire population of Riverside, CA

• Multidisciplinary partnering – Include safety culture & non-

infrastructure partners• Organizational change

– Data-driven decision-making– Maximize the benefit of our

investments in terms of fatality reduction

• Reprioritization of agency mission & approach– Safety, mobility, infrastructure

condition– Full integration of safety (rather

than safety projects)• Help change the culture

What can we do?

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A National Safety Strategy

?

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What would it take to sustain CONSISTENT and LONG-TERM reductions

towards a goal we can live with ?