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March 14th, 2014 THE WEEK IN NUMBERS (March 10th – March 14th)

Change Week

% Change Week

% Change YTD

%Change 1 Year

Trailing P/E

-312.63 -1.90% -2.63% 11.66% 15.1

-34.84 -1.86% -0.28% 18.57% 17.0

-69.68 -1.61% 2.15% 31.48% 30.7

-71.34 -0.50% 4.45% 11.64% 19.1

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 2,993.54 -101.77 -3.29% -3.71% 10.68% 20.4

FTSE 100 (UK) 6,526.38 -186.29 -2.78% -3.30% 0.69% 16.9

DAX (Germany) 9,019.42 -331.33 -3.54% -5.58% 13.15% 16.9

Nikkei 225 (Japan) 14,327.66 -946.41 -6.20% -12.05% 17.06% 19.5

Hang Seng 21,539.49 -1,121.00 -4.95% -7.58% -4.51% 10.0

MSCI World 1,651.68 -29.49 -1.75% -0.57% 15.52% 17.6

MSCI EAFE -38.02 -1.97% -1.37% 12.22% 19.9

Change Week

% Change Week

% Change YTD

%Change 1 Year

Trailing P/E

-19.17 -1.25% 2.00% 30.82% 18.9

-48.99 -1.81% 3.67% 22.63% 18.6

-33.02 -1.08% 3.90% 10.53% 26.7

-7.14 -0.34% 0.38% 15.10% 13.2

-20.18 -1.08% 18.38% 70.94% 298.5

-10.92 -0.53% 1.53% 20.52% 22.5

-6.48 -4.04% 6.81% 23.20% 54.7

34.31 1.42% 18.42% -8.89% 25.0

-24.95 -2.12% -0.26% 0.28% 16.0

19.47 1.06% 5.63% -2.56% 23.1

Change Week

% Change Week

% Change YTD

%Change 1 Year

NBF 2014E

-4.13 -4.03% 0.03% 6.41% $96.25-0.24 -5.09% 3.62% 19.10% $4.1536.75 2.74% 14.19% -13.29% $1,250.00

CRB Index -4.73 -1.54% 7.96% 2.60% NA

Curr. Net Change

% Change Week

% Change YTD

%Change 1 Year

NBF 4Q 2014E

-0.0001 -0.01% -4.20% -7.33% 0.920.0044 0.32% 1.28% 7.39% 1.29-0.0089 -0.53% 0.40% 11.40% 1.630.0002 1.78% 3.78% -5.27% 0.00909Yen

Pound

Last price

1.3919

0.00991.6624

CURRENCIES in US$

Cdn$Euro

0.9019

Gold Spot (US$/OZ)Natural gas futures (US$/mcf)

S&P TSX Materials

S&P TSX Telecom Services

S&P TSX Utilities 1,863

16,140.09

1,843.20

4,266.54

14,227.74

COMMODITIES

Oil-WTI futures (US$/Barrels)

S&P TSX Consumer Discretionary 1,518

1,889.43

302.46

$4.38$1,376.73

2,042

2,453

1,152

Last price

$98.45

INDEX

Dow Jones Industrial

Last price

S&P 500

Nasdaq Composite

S&P/TSX Composite

S&P TSX Info Tech.

S&P TSX Energy

2,658

S&P TSX SECTORS Last price

154

2,098

1,842

3,030

S&P TSX Industrials

S&P TSX Consumer Staples

S&P TSX Financials

S&P TSX Health Care

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Contact your Investment Advisor for more information regarding this document.

For NBF Disclosures, please visit URL: http://www.nbcn.ca/contactus/disclosures.html For a paper copy of the disclosures, please send awritten request (indicating the name and date of the product) to: National Bank Financial c/o Research Publishing Department, 130 KingSt. W., 4th Floor Podium Toronto, ON M5X 1J9

Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research Approximate time: 11:30 a.m.

FIXED INCOME

NUMBERS

THE WEEK IN NUMBERS (March 10th – March 14th)

Last yield Change Week in bps

Change YTD in bps

Change One Year in bps

1.00% 0.0 0 00.82% -1.2 -9 -131.00% -4.9 -13 31.59% -12.8 -36 222.38% -14.5 -38 462.92% -12.5 -31 31

CANADIAN YIELD CURVE

3 Month T-BillCDA Overnight

2 Yr Canada Government5 Yr Canada Government10 Yr Canada Government30 Yr Canada Government

Change Week Change Y-T-D

0.61% 3.06%0.24% 1.16%0.70% 3.65%1.10% 5.58%

DEX Universe Bond IndexDEX Short Term Bond IndexDEX Mid Term Bond IndexDEX Long Term Bond Index

CANADIAN BOND - TOTAL RETURN

Last yield Change Week in bps

Change YTD in bps

Change One Year in bps

0.25% 0.0 0 00.04% -0.5 -3 -50.34% -3.1 -4 81.52% -11.5 -22 652.64% -15.2 -39 623.58% -14.1 -39 36

3 Month T-Bill2 Yr US Bonds

30 Yr US Bonds

5 Yr US Bonds10 Yr US Bonds

US YIELD CURVE

U.S. FED Funds

CURRENT YIELD CURVE

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Term

yiel

d

Last spread in basis points (bp)

Change Week in bps

Change YTD in bps

Change One Year in bps

18 0.2 -9 -944 1.2 -3 -453 1.0 13 9108 2.5 -28 381 1.0 -13 -12

CAD Housing Trust AAA

Canada Corp BBBCanada Corp Bank AA

Province QuebecProvince Ontario

CANADIAN 5 YR SPREADS

Last spread in basis points (bp)

Change Week in bps

Change YTD in bps

Change One Year in bps

99 2.6 10 -174 2.3 -5 -12175 1.1 -22 -8

US Finance AA 75 4.7 2 -22US Corp BBB 149 1.8 -11 -24

CDN & US 10 YR SPREADS

Province QuebecProvince OntarioCanada Corp BBB

Sources: Bloomberg & PC Bonds

The Week at a Glance

The Week at a Glance

Weekly Indicators

Canada: Housing starts up 6.4% in February Annual rate Latest: 192.1K (actual); 190.0K (expected);Previous: 180.5K (revised up from 180.1K) OPINION: February’s increase in starts is totally due to a surprising 18.6K rise in urban multiple starts in the province of Quebec. About half of these were located in the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), and were due to the start of a few large multi-units residential projects. Surprisingly, the other half of the increase was not located in any of the five other CMAs in Quebec (Gatineau, Quebec City, Saguenay, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières), where total starts overall actually declined in February. We think this is a blip, as market conditions in Quebec’s resale market do not justify an increase in new dwellings (middle chart). For instance, according to the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board, the number of sales in February declined 2% compared to January 2013, while active listings were up 9%. We still maintain that the level of starts in Quebec in 2014 will be about the same as it was in 2013 (37.5K). At the national level, we still see starts at around 180K in 2014. In the meantime, after two months in Q1, Canadian housing starts are still below their Q4 level (bottom chart).

NBF Economic

& Strategy

Group

The Week at a Glance

Canada: House prices up 0.3% in February m/m growth - Latest: +0.3% last month: +0.4% previous: +0.1% y/y growth - Latest: +5.0% last month: +4.5% previous: +3.8% OPINION: The fact that the national housing market is not homogeneous is highlighted by the fact that the National Composite Index is at a record level while there is price deflation in 4 out of the 11 regions covered. The latter situation has not been seen since the aftermaths of the last recession, 4 ½ years ago (middle chart). Indeed, the country can be separated into three regions where 12-month price growths have behaved quite differently: 1) West and Ontario (except Victoria and Ottawa-Gatineau) where resale markets are either hot or balanced, 2) other regions located east of the former where markets are rather favourable to buyers and 3) Victoria where price deflation has prevailed for the last few years (bottom chart). Except for Victoria where conditions have improved lately, we do not expect a turnaround in market conditions in the next few months.

NBF Economic

& Strategy

Group

«

The Week at a Glance

World Watch

World: Food inflation is returning Lack of global inflation was the one factor that surprised the economic community in 2013. Excess supply in many countries was one of the explanations put forward. The other main driver in our view was the decline in global food prices. As measured by the CRB foodstuff, they plunged 14% in 2013, the biggest decline since 1986. Given the importance of the food component in the CPI of many countries, there was only one direction for headline inflation to take last year. Yet, a key development that has yet to gain much publicity since the start of 2014 is the dramatic rebound in food prices. As the Hot Charts shows, in the span of only 48 trading days, the CRB foodstuff has already regained all of the ground lost in 2013. This development flies in the face of the most recent World Bank projection calling for a continued decline in food prices this year. Many central bankers are still musing about the lack of inflation. Perhaps some of them will soon need to start looking the other way.

NBF Economic & Strategy

Group

The Week at a Glance

IN THE NEWS

U.S. and Canadian News

Monday March 10th, 2014

- Canada Housing Starts Post First Increase in Four Months Work began on about 192,100 units at a seasonally adjusted annual pace in February, a gain of 6.4 percent. Economists forecast a reading of 190,000.

- African Barrick Falls Most in 14 Months in London on Sale Barrick Gold Corp. sold 41 million shares of African Barrick Gold Plc to institutions for $188 million, cutting its stake to 64 percent less than four years after an initial public offering.

Tuesday March 11th, 2014

- Job Openings in the U.S. Increased in January as Hiring Fell The number of positions waiting to be filled increased by 60,000 to 3.97 million, from a revised 3.91 million the prior month. The pace of hiring fell and fewer Americans quit their jobs.

- Men’s Wearhouse to Buy Jos. A. Bank for $1.8 Billion Men’s Wearhouse Inc. agreed to buy smaller rival Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Inc. for about $1.8 billion in cash, ending a five-month takeover battle between the two menswear retailers.

- Harper announces free trade deal with South Korea Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his South Korean counterpart announced early Tuesday their two countries have concluded a free-trade agreement that the government boasts will be a major boost for Canadian exporters in the fast growing Asian market, but detractors fear will damage Ontario’s key economic auto industry.

Wednesday March 12th, 2014

- Fed Nominee Fischer Says Expansionary Monetary Policy Needed Stanley Fischer, the nominee to be Federal Reserve vice chairman, said the world’s largest economy still needs the central bank’s unprecedented accommodation as joblessness remains elevated.

- Berkshire to Buy Graham TV Station in $1.1 Billion Swap Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reached a deal to acquire a Miami television station and some of the company’s own shares in a $1.1 billion swap for Graham Holdings Co. stock that Warren Buffett held for more than four decades.

- Canadian home prices rise to fresh high in February Canadian home prices rose 0.3% in February, pushing the Teranet-National Bank national composite price index to a record high for a second month in a row.

Thursday March 13th, 2014

- Retail Sales in U.S. Increase for First Time in 3 Months The 0.3 percent advance in purchases followed a 0.6 percent drop in January that was larger than initially reported.

- Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to Lowest Level Since November Jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 315,000 in the week ended March 8. The median forecast of economists called for a rise to 330,000.

- Budget Deficit in U.S. Narrowed Last Month as Receipts Climbed Spending exceeded revenue by $193.5 billion last month, compared with a $203.5 billion deficit in February 2013. The median estimate of economists was for a $195 billion shortfall.

- GE Said to Seek $3.5 Billion in IPO of Consumer-Finance Unit GE, which filed for an IPO of the business, will seek a valuation of $20 billion to $25 billion in the sale.

- Canadian 4Q Industrial Capacity Use Rises Less Than Expected The share of plant capacity in use increased to 82.0 percent, compared with a third quarter figure that was revised lower to 81.2 percent from 81.7 percent. Economists predicted a rate of 82.2 percent.

- Canada Records First Ever Surplus in Net Foreign-Asset Position Statistics Canada reported a net international investment position of C$26.7 billion on assets of C$2.91 trillion and liabilities of C$2.88 trillion.

Friday March 14th, 2014

- Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Unexpectedly Falls on Outlook The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment fell to 79.9 this month from 81.6 in February. The median estimate of economists called for the measure to increase to 82.

- Wholesale Prices in U.S. Unexpectedly Drop on Services The 0.1 percent decrease in the producer-price index followed a 0.2 percent rise the prior month. None of the economists projected a decrease. Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices rose 0.9 percent, the smallest year-to-year gain since May.

- Liberty Drops Sirius Bid, Plans to Help Charter Expand Liberty Media Corp., billionaire John Malone’s holding company, abandoned its bid for full control of Sirius XM Holdings Inc. and laid out a plan to help fund Charter Communications Inc.’s expansion.

- Canada Household Debt Ratio Falls From Record Credit-market debt such as mortgages increased to 163.97 percent of disposable income, compared with a revised 164.20 percent in the prior three-month period. Mortgage debt rose 1.1 percent to C$1.1 trillion , compared with an average 1.8 percent in the past six years.

Click on title to view the full story.

The Week at a Glance

IN THE NEWS

International News Monday March 10th, 2014 - China’s Exports Unexpectedly Drop Blow to Confidence

Shipments abroad dropped 18.1 percent from a year earlier, the customs administration said in Beijing, trailing the median estimate for a 7.5 percent increase. Reports also showed inflation eased to a 13-month low in February and producer prices fell for a 24th month.

- French Industrial Output Drops, Sentiment Weakens Output dropped 0.2 percent in January from December, led by electricity and gas production. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent increase. A separate report showed an index of business sentiment declined to 98 in February from 99 the previous month.

- Japan’s Economy Expands Less Than Initially Estimated Gross domestic product grew an annualized 0.7 percent from the previous quarter, less than a preliminary estimate of 1 percent and a 0.9 percent median forecast of economists. The current-account deficit widened to 1.59 trillion yen (US$15.4 billion), a record in data back to 1985.

Tuesday March 11th, 2014 - EU Finance Ministers Claim Progress on Bank-Failure

Fund European Union finance ministers claimed “good progress” after talks in Brussels as they worked to break a deadlock on a euro-area bank-failure law urgently sought by the European Central Bank.

- ECB Homes In on Risky Assets as Inspectors Visit Banks The European Central Bank said it will look for capital shortfalls in euro-area banks by examining more than 3.72 trillion euros in assets in on-site checks.

- Zhou Sees China’s Deposit Rates Freed Within 2 Years China’s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said deposit rates will be liberalized in one to two years, as the nation expands the role of markets even amid an economic slowdown and risks from a credit boom.

- U.K. Manufacturing Output Grows More Than Forecast Output rose 0.4 percent from December, when it also gained that amount. The median of estimates was for 0.3 percent growth. Industrial production, which includes utilities and mines, rose 0.1 percent -- less than the 0.2 percent forecast -- as bad weather hit oil and gas output.

Wednesday March 12th, 2014 - N.Z. Raises Rate to Become First Developed Nation to

Tighten New Zealand’s central bank increased its key interest rate, becoming the first from a major developed nation to exit record-low borrowing costs, and signaled it may remove stimulus faster than previously forecast to contain inflation.

- Thailand Reduces Key Rate as Political Unrest Hurts Economy The Bank of Thailand cut its one-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent, with monetary policy committee members voting four-to-three in favor.

Click on title to view the full story.

- Euro-Area Factory Output Unexpectedly Falls Factory output in the 18-nation euro zone slipped 0.2 percent from December. The median forecast of economists was for a 0.5 percent increase. From a year earlier, production rose 2.1 percent.

- Mexico Raises $1.66 Billion With First 100-Year Bond in Pounds The government sold 1 billion pounds (US$1.66 billion) of securities due in March 2114 to yield 5.75 percent. The sale shows global interest in Mexican assets and confidence in the government’s finances.

Thursday March 13th, 2014 - China Data Show Economy Cooling

Factory production rose 8.6 percent in the two-month period from a year earlier, the weakest start to a year since 2009. Retail sales advanced 11.8 percent, the slowest pace for the period since 2004, while the 17.9 percent increase in fixed-asset investment was a 13-year low for the months.

- Indian CPI Eases, Factory Output Rise Surprises Before Vote The consumer-price index rose 8.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with 8.79 percent in January. The median estimate of analysts had been for an 8.3 percent increase. Industrial output expanded 0.1 percent in January.

- Draghi Says ECB Guidance May Help to Curb Euro Strength European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said his forward guidance may help to weaken the euro and lower real interest rates, easing the risk that inflation won’t return to the goal set by policy makers.

- Bouygues Increases Cash Portion of SFR Bid to $15.8 Billion Bouygues SA boosted the cash portion of its offer for Vivendi SA’s SFR phone unit to 11.3 billion euros, seeking to top a competing bid from cable billionaire Patrick Drahi that’s seen less likely to run into regulatory hurdles.

Friday March 14th, 2014 - India Wholesale Inflation Eases to 9-Month Low in February

The wholesale-price index rose 4.68 percent from a year earlier, compared with 5.05 percent in January. That was below the median estimate of analysts for a 4.9 percent increase.

- China Stimulus Decision Looms as Investment Slows China’s weakest start to a year for investment growth since 2001 and unexpectedly slow industrial production add pressure for economic stimulus, just as Premier Li Keqiang signals he wants to avoid such a move.

- Russia Holds Key Rate After Emergency Increase on Ukraine Crisis Russia’s central bank left borrowing costs unchanged after its emergency interest-rate increase last week failed to stem the ruble’s decline as tensions mount over neighboring Ukraine’s Crimea region.

- Temasek Unit Offers to Buy Olam in $4.2 Billion Cash Deal A unit of Singapore’s state-owned investment company offered to take over Olam International Ltd. in a deal that values one of the world’s top three coffee and rice traders at S$5.3 billion (US$4.2 billion).

The Week at a Glance

S&P/TSX WEEKLY PERFORMERS

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Black Diamond Group Ltd (BDI)

OceanaGold Corp (OGC)

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI)

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc (FVI)

IAMGOLD Corp (IMG)

Torex Gold Resources Inc (TXG)

Pretium Resources Inc (PVG)

Novagold Resources Inc (NG)

Alacer Gold Corp (ASR)

Detour Gold Corp (DGC)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8.96%

9.16%

9.91%

10.53%

10.59%

11.48%

12.81%

13.68%

14.79%

22.60%

S&P/TSX weekly best performers

-16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

Turquoise Hill Resources Ltd (TRQ)

Air Canada (AC.b)

Capstone Mining Corp (CS)

Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc (TCM)

Blackberry Ltd (BB)

BlackPearl Resources Inc (PXX)

HudBay Minerals Inc (HBM)

West Fraser Timber Co Ltd (WFT)

First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)

Teck Resources Ltd (TCK.b)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-15.49%

-11.42%

-10.60%

-10.24%

-7.92%

-7.62%

-7.61%

-7.04%

-6.97%

-6.80%

S&P/TSX weekly worst performers

The performance is calculated from the close of Friday’s previous week until Friday 11:30 a.m. of this week. Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research

The Week at a Glance

NBF Ratings & Target Price Changes

Company Symbol Current Rating

Previous Rating

Current Target

Previous Target

Closing Price

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. AAV Sector Perform Sector Perform C$5.50 C$5.00 C$4.34 AG Growth International Inc. AFN Outperform Outperform C$51.00 C$41.00 C$46.74 Alacer Gold Corp. ASR Outperform Outperform C$3.50 C$3.30 C$3.50 Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. AQN Sector Perform Sector Perform C$8.00 C$7.50 C$7.70 Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. ATD.B Outperform Outperform C$90.00 C$83.00 C$83.72 Arsenal Energy Inc. AEI Sector Perform Sector Perform C$6.50 C$5.50 C$5.80 Baytex Energy Corp. BTE Outperform Outperform $52.00 $51.00 C$41.86 Black Diamond Group Ltd. BDI Outperform Outperform C$35.00 C$30.50 C$32.47 Cascades Inc. CAS Outperform Outperform C$9.00 C$8.00 C$6.96 Cervus Equipment Corporation CVL Sector Perform Sector Perform C$21.00 C$20.00 C$24.01 Colabor Group Inc. GCL Outperform Sector Perform C$5.25 C$5.25 C$4.34 Constellation Software Inc. CSU Outperform Outperform $300.00 $240.00 C$260.01 Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG Outperform Outperform $51.00 $50.00 C$40.28 Detour Gold Corporation DGC Outperform Restricted C$14.00 C$0.00 C$11.92 Empire Company Ltd. EMP.A Sector Perform Sector Perform C$75.00 C$82.00 C$68.10 ENTREC Corporation ENT Outperform Outperform C$2.25 C$2.50 C$1.46 FAM REIT F.UN Sector Perform Sector Perform C$10.25 C$10.50 C$8.95 Home Capital Group Inc. HCG Outperform Outperform C$47.50 C$95.00 C$43.50 Liquor Stores N.A. Ltd. LIQ Underperform Sector Perform C$11.00 C$13.00 C$11.61 Marquee Energy Ltd. MQL Outperform Restricted C$1.50 C$0.00 C$0.85 Northland Power Inc. NPI Sector Perform Restricted C$17.50 C$0.00 C$16.70 NuVista Energy NVA Outperform Outperform C$10.75 C$10.00 C$8.70 Penn West Exploration PWT Underperform Underperform $9.00 $8.00 C$9.05 Polymet Mining Corp. POM Sector Perform Sector Perform C$1.70 C$1.45 C$1.65 Premium Brands Holding Corporation PBH Sector Perform Sector Perform C$22.00 C$20.00 C$21.31 Pure Industrial RET AAR.UN Outperform Outperform C$5.05 C$5.25 C$4.69 Quebecor Inc. QBR.B Sector Perform Outperform C$27.50 C$30.00 C$24.79 Transat A.T. Inc. TRZ.b Sector Perform Outperform C$10.50 C$14.00 C$9.10 Transcontinental Inc. TCL.A Sector Perform Sector Perform C$15.50 C$16.50 C$14.66 WPT Industrial REIT WIR.U Outperform Outperform US$10.50 US$9.50 C$9.47

Veritas Ratings & Target Price Changes

Company Symbol Current Rating

Previous Rating

Current Intrinsic

Value

Previous Intrinsic

Value Closing

Price Baytex Energy BTE BUY BUY C$47.00 C$45.00 C$41.86 Crescent Point Energy CPG BUY BUY C$47.00 C$44.00 C$40.28 Empire Co. EMP.A BUY BUY C$80.00 C$86.00 C$68.10 Quebecor Inc. QBR.B SELL SELL C$24.00 C$22.00 C$24.79

The Week at a Glance

NBF Action Ideas CONSTELLATION SOFTWARE INC. (CSU) CLOSING PRICE: $ 260.01 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE: $300.00 COMPANY PROFILE Constellation Software (CSU) acquires, manages and builds vertical market software (‘‘VMS’’), which provides solutions that address the specific needs of customers in ~50 verticals. Constellation is based in Toronto, Ontario with 130 other offices worldwide and has over 8,000 employees. Constellation's core strategy is to opportunistically acquire companies that provide VMS solutions in its existing or new verticals. Constellation completed 30 acquisitions for a total consideration of ~$600 mln in 2013. INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS On March 7th NBF reiterated its Outperform rating and increased its target price to $300.00 (from $240 previously) on the back of much stronger than expected Q4 F2013 results. The new target price implies a ~17% total return. CSU’s Q4 revenue of $340 mln beat expectations (consensus $324 mln, NBF $312 mln). Q4 EBITDA margin of 23% (consensus 19%, NBF 18%) was the second highest in the past seven years (although NBF notes it is likely not permanent). Strong revenue and margin performance led to the large Q4 EPS beat of $3.26/sh vs. consensus $2.50/sh and NBF $2.26/sh. NBF increased its 2014/2015 revenue estimates to $1,746 mln (+7.4%) and $1,986 mln (+8.7%) respectively. NBF increased its 2014/2015 EPS estimates to $13.11 (+20.8%) and $14.98 (+18.5%) respectfully to reflect higher revenue estimates and EBITDA margins of ~19% (vs. ~17-18% previously). This implies 2014/2015 revenue growth of 44.2%/13.7% and 2014/2015 EPS growth of 34.8%/ 14.3% respectively. Constellation's core strategy is to opportunistically acquire companies that provide VMS solutions in its existing or new verticals. Constellation completed 30 acquisitions for a total consideration of ~$600 mln in 2013. This strategy is proceeding well and NBF thinks CSU can continue to execute 20-30 smaller ($3-5 mln/deal) acquisitions per year, perhaps with a stretch goal of 50 acquisitions per year. Further upside to estimates is possible if CSU opportunistically undertakes larger acquisitions. On December 31st CSU closed the Total Specific Solutions (TSS) acquisition, its largest acquisition to date. TSS provides solutions for the general practitioner, pharmacy, long-term care, mental care, property tax and civil affairs markets. The ~€240 mln purchase price implies ~2.7x 2013 maintenance revenues (Open Tex trades at ~4x maintenance revenue). NBF expects ~1% EPS accretion in 2014, and ~4% EPS accretion in 2015 (~$0.50/sh) with upside from margin expansion from restructuring. TSS’ EBIT margin was ~7-9% in 2010-2012; NBF is modeling 7% in 2014 and 10% in 2015. NBF estimates do not factor in TSS revenue growth or the potential for a minority stake in TSS being sold to the management/ investors. VALUATION CSU has generally traded at 10x-18x forward P/E over the past seven years. NBF’s $300.00 target price implies ~18x P/E multiple on 2015E, which appears rich; however, NBF believes CSU will deliver upside from additional M&A and/or potential cost synergies from the Total Specific Solutions acquisition, which are not reflected in its estimates.

The Week at a Glance

NBF Action Ideas CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP. (CPG) CLOSING PRICE: $ 40.28 RATING: OUTPERFORM TARGET PRICE: $ 49.00 RISK RATING: AVERAGE COMPANY PROFILE Crescent Point is a light oil focused Intermediate Yield E&P pursuing a growth and income business model. The company is a leader in tight oil development and has a dominant position in the Saskatchewan Bakken and Shaunavon oil resource plays, and has recently moved into new tight oil plays in Alberta, North Dakota and Utah. INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS NBF reiterated its Outperform rating on Crescent Point (CPG) and increased its target price to $51.00 from $50.00 after the company reported strong Q4/13 results and YE13 reserves that came in well ahead of expectations. CPG remains one of NBF’s top picks in the midcap yield E&P space given its above average sustainable dividend (6.9% yield), significant long-term organic growth potential and its defensive hedging strategy. CPG’s Q4 results beat expectations, largely driven by ongoing improvements in drilling technology and waterflood impacts. CFPS of $1.35 came in above NBF estimate of $1.29/share and 9% above consensus of $1.24 largely due to record quarterly production of 127,641 boe/d which increased 8% Q/Q. 2P reserves grew 9% Y/Y to 664 mmboe as CPG replaced 213% of production at an all-in 2P F&D cost of $20.09/boe (incl. FDC), driving an impressive recycle ratio of 2.6x. This growth is attributed to the continued implementation of 25-stage cemented liner completions and ongoing impact from waterflood, which combined, has contributed to a lower corporate decline rate of sub-30%. CPG’s organic growth strategy is definitely starting to unfold and should continue for some time with the ongoing roll out of cemented liner completions and waterfloods across most of its other plays. CPG is a top managed company with significant light oil growth potential. CPG is a leader in tight oil development and has over 7,100+ drilling locations identified on its established resource plays and has years’ worth of low-risk drilling opportunities and will likely expand this inventory as it further delineates recently acquired land in new and emerging plays. In addition, the continued application and testing of water flood recovery schemes on its Bakken and other light oil plays could significantly increase the overall recovery potential over the long term. NBF continues to be impressed with the strong operational performance and organic growth being achieved by CPG and increased its 2014 and 2015 production estimates as it fully expects CPG to exceed its 2014 guidance of 126.5 mboe/d. CPG’s F2014 cash flow guidance was increased to $2.25 bln (from $2.1 bln) as a result of strong pricing to date. CPG layered in additional hedges and now has ~52% of gross 2014 oil production hedged at a floor of ~US$84/bbl and ~28% of its gross 2015 oil production hedged at a floor price of ~$82/bbl. This is further complemented by an active rail strategy which includes approximately 70,000 bbls/d of rail loading capacity and ~ 14,200 bbl/d of fixed WTI price differentials for 2014 to provide stability to Western Canadian differentials. Finally, CPG offers an attractive dividend yield of 6.9% and NBF continues to believe this dividend is sustainable given its strong balance sheet (D/CF 1.1x) and reasonable payout ratios. VALUATION NBF’s $51.00 target price is based on a 1.1x multiple to is CNAV estimate of $46.51 and reflects a 2014 EV/DACF multiple of 9.6x. Note NBF does not give them any upside value for the Bakken waterflood or the Alberta Bakken at this time as it awaits further proof of concept and/or more production history. The target price implies a ~34% total return.

The Week at a Glance

STRATEGIC LIST - WEEKLY UPDATE

(March 10th – March 14th)

Changes this Week: Removing: Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) Adding: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) Removing Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) We removed Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) from the Strategic List. BNS has been on the list since its inception on July 31st 2012, and has provided a total return of 31.6%. In comparison the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index and the S&P/TSX Financials Index returned 28.4% and 32.4% respectively over the same period. NBF continues to prefer BNS’ operating platform to those of its domestic peers over the long term and believes that its strategy to geographically diversify into an array of very attractive P&C banking franchises in fast growing economies will pay off. However in the near term, the bank faces greater difficulties in executing its business segment. Ultimately, NBF thinks management will successfully re-position BNS’ businesses, but this will take some time. As such, we believe other stocks in the Financials space are more attractive on a risk-reward basis at this time. Adding Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) We added Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) to the NBF Strategic List as it scored highly on our quantitative model. Thesis: CIBC is the fifth largest bank in Canada in terms of assets. CIBC operates three strategic business units: Retail & Business Banking, Wholesale Banking and Wealth Management. CIBC’s Q1 f2014 earnings beat both NBF’s and consensus expectations, driven by continued momentum in its Retail & Business Banking’s (RBB) strategic transformation. The mortgages that CIBC now underwrites are more lucrative, and they provide an important foothold to establishing multi-product relationships with clients, which will result in enduring profitability improvement. While headwinds faced by domestic P&C banking may impair the trajectory of RBB’s growth, NBF now has greater confidence in the segment’s ability to weather such a downturn. CIBC’s Wealth Management and Wholesale segments have produced a fairly consistent pattern of earnings growth over the past year, which are expected to continue. Furthermore, barring a return of extreme volatility in global capital markets, NBF believes CIBC’s momentum in these businesses will continue. Comments: Energy (Overweight) Crescent Point Energy Corp. (CPG) CPG reported strong Q4/13 results and YE13 Reserves that came in well ahead of expectations largely driven by ongoing improvements in drilling technology and waterflood impacts. CFPS of $1.35 came in above NBF estimate of $1.29/share and 9% above consensus of $1.24 largely due to record quarterly production of 127,641 boe/d which increased 8% Q/Q. 2P reserves grew 9% Y/Y to 664 mmboe as CPG replaced 213% of production at an all-in 2P F&D cost of $20.09/boe (incl. FDC), driving an impressive recycle ratio of 2.6x. This growth is attributed to the continued implementation of 25-stage cemented liner completions and ongoing impact from waterflood, which combined, have contributed to a lower corporate decline rate of sub-30%. NBF reiterated its Outperform rating and increased its target price to $51.00 from $50.00. CPG’s Q413 CFPS also beat Credit Suisse (CS) estimate of $1.22 by ~10.5%. Production of 127,641 boe/d (~91% oil) was higher than CS forecast of 123,667 boe/d (~91% oil). The two strongest sources of variance are related to better realized liquids pricing (~9%) and higher than forecast production (~3%). On a full year basis, production per share growth in 2013 was ~4%. While 2014 average production guidance of 126,500 boe/d (135,000 boe/d exit) has remained unchanged, we note that CPG had already exceeded these production rates late in 2013. Operationally, the

The Week at a Glance company expects opex per boe could improve further given advancements at the field level with regards to chemical usage and reduced down time. Finally, on the technology side, CPG expects to test completion methods on Uinta horizontals (which should improve costs) with perhaps some news on that front later this year. The company has also added 10,000 bbl/d of rail capacity in the play allowing for access beyond the current local market. CS maintained its Neutral rating and $42.00 target price. Despite Veritas’ doubts that CPG’s waterflood strategy technique would be a step-change in terms of investment returns; it thinks CPG’s weak share performance this year as overdone. The company’s updated reserves, released yesterday, included positive revisions tied to Bakken flooding and provided something of a comfort letter to investors. Based on future net revenue disclosures, Veritas estimates the current share price of $40 requires only modest 2% per-share reserve growth to achieve 9% annual returns, including dividends. Veritas’ $47 per share intrinsic value implies 5% reserve per share growth over the next three years, coupled with 3% production-per-share growth. In its view, CPG is well positioned to meet or exceed these higher targets and maintained its BUY recommendation.

The Week at a Glance

Ticker Price Dividend Yield Beta Date AddedENERGY 24.7%Canadian Natural Resources CNQ-T $39.72 $0.90 2.27% 1.0 31/Jul/12Suncor Energy Inc. SU-T $36.27 $0.92 2.54% 1.0 31/Jul/12Gibson Energy GEI-T $28.23 $1.20 4.25% 0.9 01/May/13Inter Pipeline IPL-T $29.40 $1.29 4.39% 0.8 05/Jun/13AltaGas ALA-T $44.11 $1.53 3.47% 0.8 30/Oct/13Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG-T $40.52 $2.76 6.81% 0.9 03/Oct/12MATERIALS 12.9%First Quantum Minerals Ltd. FM-T $18.76 $0.15 0.80% 1.9 03/Apr/13Barrick Gold Corp. ABX-T $23.21 $0.22 0.95% 2.4 31/Jul/12INDUSTRIALS 7.8%Progressive Waste Solutions BIN-T $27.69 $0.60 2.17% 0.6 31/Oct/12CAE Inc. CAE-T $14.83 $0.24 1.62% 0.9 05/Mar/14CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 5.4%Cineplex Inc. CGX-T $41.46 $1.44 3.47% 0.7 25/Sep/13Thomson Reuters Corp TRI-T $36.98 $1.46 3.95% 1.0 27/Feb/14CONSUMER STAPLES 2.8%Metro Inc. MRU-T $62.11 $1.20 1.93% 0.6 04/Dec/13George Weston Ltd. WN-T $80.75 $1.66 2.06% 0.8 31/Jul/12HEALTH CARE 3.5%FINANCIALS 33.8%Toronto Dominion Bank TD-T $51.28 $1.88 3.67% 0.9 31/Jul/12CIBC CM-T $94.48 $3.92 4.15% 0.7 12/Mar/14Great West LifeCo GWO-T $30.29 $1.23 4.06% 0.8 30/Oct/13First Capital Realty FCR-T $17.69 $0.84 4.75% 0.8 12/Feb/14Royal Bank of Canada RY-T $71.28 $2.84 3.98% 0.9 19/Jun/13Intact Financial Corp. IFC-T $67.33 $1.92 2.85% 0.7 10/Oct/12CI Financial Corp. CIX-T $34.31 $1.14 3.32% 0.8 06/Mar/13INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 1.9%CGI Group Inc. GIB'A-T $34.70 $0.00 0.00% 0.6 22/Aug/12Constellation Software CSU-T $255.77 $4.43 1.73% 0.8 30/Oct/13TELECOM SERVICES 5.0%Telus Corp. T-T $38.45 $1.44 3.75% 0.9 31/Jul/12BCE Inc. BCE-T $47.09 $2.47 5.25% 0.8 23/Jan/13UTILITIES 1.9%Northland Power Inc. NPI-T $16.82 $1.08 6.42% 0.7 08/May/13Canadian Utilities Ltd CU-T $39.88 $1.07 2.68% 1.0 31/Jul/12

3.23% 0.91

Source: Bloomberg, Thomson One

Average

NBF STRATEGIC LIST Weight

S&P/TSX

Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus

17-Mar 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Mar 4.48 6.517-Mar 09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows Jan -$45.9B --17-Mar 09:00 Total Net TIC Flows Jan -$119.6B --17-Mar 09:15 Industrial Production MoM Feb -0.30% 0.10%17-Mar 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 78.50% 78.60%17-Mar 09:15 Manufacturing (SIC) Production Feb -0.80% 0.40%17-Mar 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 46 50

18-Mar 08:30 CPI MoM Feb 0.10% 0.10%18-Mar 08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Feb 0.10% 0.10%18-Mar 08:30 CPI YoY Feb 1.60% 1.30%18-Mar 08:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY Feb 1.60% 1.60%18-Mar 08:30 CPI Core Index SA Feb 235.843 --18-Mar 08:30 CPI Index NSA Feb 233.916 --18-Mar 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 880K 915K18-Mar 08:30 Housing Starts MoM Feb -16.00% 4.00%18-Mar 08:30 Building Permits Feb 937K 965K18-Mar 08:30 Building Permits MoM Feb -5.40% 2.10%

19-Mar 07:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 14-Mar -2.10% --19-Mar 08:30 Current Account Balance 4Q -$94.8B -$88.0B19-Mar 14:00 Fed QE3 Pace Mar $65 $5519-Mar 14:00 Fed Pace of Treasury Pur Mar $35 $3019-Mar 14:00 Fed Pace of MBS Purchases Mar $30 $2519-Mar 14:00 FOMC Rate Decision 19-Mar 0.25% 0.25%

20-Mar 08:30 Initial Jobless Claims 15-Mar 315K --20-Mar 08:30 Continuing Claims 07-Mar 2855K --20-Mar 09:45 Bloomberg Economic Expectations Mar -3 --20-Mar 09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 16-Mar -27.6 --20-Mar 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar -6.3 420-Mar 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 4.62M 4.62M20-Mar 10:00 Existing Home Sales MoM Feb -5.10% 0.00%20-Mar 10:00 Leading Index Feb 0.30% 0.20%

Date Time Release Period Previous Consensus

17-Mar 08:30 Int'l Securities Transactions Jan -4.28B --17-Mar 09:00 Existing Home Sales MoM Feb -3.30% --17-Mar 10:00 Bloomberg Nanos Confidence 14-Mar 59.2 --

18-Mar 08:30 Manufacturing Sales MoM Jan -0.90% 1.00%

19-Mar 08:30 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Jan -1.40% 1.00%

21-Mar 08:30 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jan -1.40% 0.90%21-Mar 08:30 CPI NSA MoM Feb 0.30% 0.60%21-Mar 08:30 CPI YoY Feb 1.50% 0.90%21-Mar 08:30 CPI Core MoM Feb 0.20% 0.50%21-Mar 08:30 CPI Core YoY Feb 1.40% 1.10%21-Mar 08:30 CPI SA MoM Feb 0.20% --21-Mar 08:30 CPI Core SA MoM Feb 0.20% --21-Mar 08:30 Consumer Price Index Feb 123.1 123.821-Mar 08:30 Consumer Price Index Feb 123.1 123.8

U.S. Indicators

Canadian Indicators

The Week at a Glance

WEEK AHEAD The Economic Calendar (March 17th – March 21th)

Source : Bloomberg

The Week at a Glance

S&P/TSX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR

Monday March 17th, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATEEnsign Energy Services Inc ESI 0.281 Fortuna Silver Mines Inc FVI 0.048 Tuesday March 18th, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATEAlimentation Couche Tard Inc ATD.b 0.947 Wednesday March 19th, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATEAthabasca Oil Corp ATH -0.066 Franco-Nevada Corp FNV 0.218 Power Corp of Canada POW 0.617 Thursday March 20th, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATESilver Wheaton Corp SLW 0.241 Friday March 21st, 2014 None Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research *Companies of the S&P/TSX index expected to report. Stocks from the Strategic List are in Bold.

The Week at a Glance

S&P500 INDEX QUARTERLY EARNINGS CALENDAR

Monday March 17th, 2014

None Tuesday March 18th, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATEAdobe Systems Inc ADBE 0.252 Oracle Corp ORCL 0.70 Wednesday March 19th, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATEFedEx Corp FDX 1.525 General Mills Inc GIS 0.681 Jabil Circuit Inc JBL 0.109

Thursday March 20th, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATEConAgra Foods Inc CAG 0.598 Lennar Corp LEN 0.283 NIKE Inc NKE 0.723 Friday March 21st, 2014

COMPANY* SYMBOL EPS ESTIMATEDarden Restaurants Inc DRI 0.87 Tiffany & Co TIF 1.513 Source: Bloomberg, NBF Research * Companies of the S&P500 index expected to report. Stocks from the Credit Suisse U.S. Focus List are in Bold.