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March 15, 2013

Four Years of Bull and Counting… No, I am not talking about my radio show. I am talking about the four year old Bull Market. Much was said about the ten day win streak in the Dow, but little was said about the four year anniversary of the Bull Market.

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I have been fortunate enough to have taken advantage of this four year run in the market. While a Bull Market can be a sweetheart to a money manager like me, it does not come without a lot of fights, arguments and walks around the block.

While marriage can last forever, bull markets are destined to fail. It would be great if the market was nothing more than wedded bliss each and every day-breakfast in bed, long walks on the beach, and little chocolates under the pillow each night.

This is not the nature of financial markets however. They wake up grumpy all of the time. They don’t always agree with us. I try to convince myself all of the time that the Bull still loves me, but when the bull decides to leave us-it is over.

The bull has tried to leave us over Europe, over the elections, over the fiscal cliff, and even over sequestration. Can anybody really explain sequestration? It seems like such a trivial argument to end such a beautiful four relationship over.

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This beautiful relationship must come to end at some point in the future, however. I have lived though many breakups during the almost twenty years that I have been in the business.

Economic expansion cycles must someday end. The growth in the housing market will again peak and start to roll over. The big bond market boom is seemingly packing its bags as we speak. It is how we handle these breakups that are the key to our financial health.

We have several choices:

We can refuse to ignore the signs that things are coming to end. We can cast a blind eye and stubbornly ride the breakup into pain and misery.

We can curse our luck and cast blame upon everyone and everything while our portfolio and self-esteem get clobbered.

Better yet, we can look daily for subtle signs that things are beginning to change and take preventative measures to protect ourselves. Believe it or not, a breakup with a bull even has the potential to be a profitable venture.

It would seem that recognizing the early signs of a breakup are crucial in the overall scheme of things.

Little arguments over small things like asset classes, sectors, and individual stocks would all be signs that the inevitable end is approaching.

Let’s all figuratively lie down on the couch and talk about how the little things are going right now. Let’s begin with the asset classes. When thing begin to turn sour, the market gets more defensive.

Thinks like small-cap equities, mid-cap domestic stocks, and stocks in general begin to get grumpy and make noise. Grumpy stocks can lead to grumpy investors who only know how to sell in order to ease the pain.

Leading stocks begin to do something called “rolling over.” It is not a pretty sight, nor is it a good feeling-just ask anyone who rode Apple down from $705 to $419.

Once the selling increases and the waves get bigger, investors head for safe harbors like cash, bonds, and gold.

If things start to really get bad, we see surge in the inverse exchange traded funds. They go up when markets go down.

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Let’s take some time to fill out the relationship quiz, so that we can test the mood of the current market. Here is this week’s ranking of the leading asset classes.

Top Ranked Last Week Top Ranked This Week

Once again, I see almost no change from last week. “Risk-on” is still the play. This cycle has been in place for almost one year now. It would seem that weekly date night is still working for now. No need for conciliatory roses yet.

Defensive conversations and attitudes remain buried for now. Here are this week’s lagging asset classes:

Bottom Ranked Last Week Bottom Ranked This Week

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Gold earrings, bracelets and necklaces are still not necessary. In fact, this is still one of the worst things you can do during this current equity bull. Showering your portfolio with cash is also not a good idea right now. It has not been a good idea for four years and counting…

Being short the market is more painful than a frying pan upside the head. A trip overseas is also not a good idea right now.

Now let’s go a bit deeper into the relationship. Here are the current leading sectors in the market.

Last Week This Week

The only noticeable change that I see this week is the ascent of the healthcare index and the descent of the internet index. This is one of the reasons that I sold my Ebay this past week. Overall however, these are still pretty much that same “risk-on” sectors that have lead the market for a long time.

No need for a counselor yet. Here are this week’s lagging sectors:

Last Week This Week

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There was once again, very little change from last week. The defensive sectors continue to badly outperform the “risk-on” sectors.

Now let’s step back a bit and take a look at the real big picture. Here is how we finished week 48 of the current Bull Market:

No major arguments again this week. We still have love and harmony in the home of the bull. The Emerging Markets are an exception, however. They tend to be a bit more volatile over time. I am glad that I have very little exposure there. Unfortunately, I had way too much to begin the year.

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Here is where the markets stand year-to-date:

I still like stocks that have good performance numbers, remain undervalued, and have healthy stock charts.

Here is a good example of what I mean by this:

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Data from Bill Gunderson’s Best Stocks Now App

In summing up the health of this current relationship, I see no reason to pack my bags at the current time. I also see no reason to drop my guard. I see no reason not keep the green flag flying for now! I have been long the market for almost four years now and I remain in the relationship.

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Please follow me on Twitter @BillGunderson, Facebook, or LinkedIn throughout the week for any changes in my current stance on the market or individual stocks. My tweets are also found on my BEST STOCKS NOW app every day, and on the homepage of my website: http://www.pwstreet.com

Bill Gunderson’s Model Portfolio for Investors seeking AGGRESSIVE/Moderate Growth.

This is my most aggressive portfolio. It is designed for investors with long-term time horizons, seeking maximum growth. This portfolio is made up mainly of small and mid-cap stocks with superior growth potential.

This portfolio is up 11.05% year-to-date. This is net of a 2.0% annual management fee and all $7 trades. I added

THIS SECTION IS FOR CLIENTS AND SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Bill Gunderson’s INCOME/GROWTH Model Portfolio This portfolio is for investors seeking Income along with the possibility of Growth. This is a good mix for retirees who are seeking a CD alternative-albeit with greater risk. This portfolio currently has an average yield of 6.5%.

This portfolio is now up an incredible 9.31% YTD and 17.06% since its August 5, 2011 inception. This works out to an annualized rate of 11.12%. Not bad for a CD alternative.

This is net of all $7 trades and an annual mgt. fee of 2.0%. I

THIS SECTION IS FOR CLIENTS AND SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Bill Gunderson’s Model Portfolio for Conservative Growth Investors:

This model is made up of mostly mid-cap and large cap companies that I consider suitable for investors who have a conservative growth risk profile. Time horizon of at least 3-5 years would be appropriate.

THIS SECTION IS FOR CLIENTS AND SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

Bill Gunderson’s ETF Model Portfolio This portfolio is for investors seeking growth. This portfolio is now up

THIS SECTION IS FOR CLIENTS AND SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

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401-K Section (How is your 401k) portfolio doing? Everyone has different choices to them in their 401-ks. The choices basically fall into about broad categories however: Large Cap, Mid-Cap, Small-Cap, Govt. Bond, Corp. Bond, Inflation Protected Bond, International, Emerging Market, and maybes sectors like technology, natural resources, etc.

I have added a number of mutual funds to my Best Stocks Now database that are representative of the various categories of funds that are available in most 401k plans. I grade them on a daily basis.

If you have a wide selection of mutual funds in your plan, here is my current basic recommendation: This portfolio is up 8.49% year-to-date (net of all fees and trading costs). I sold

THIS SECTION IS FOR CLIENTS AND SUBSCRIBERS ONLY

401-K Section (VERY BASIC) Many folks have a very limited selection of choices in your 401-k. THIS NEW SECTION IS FOR YOU!

U.S. Large Cap

U.S. Mid-Cap 45.0%

U. S. Small-Cap 35.0%

U.S. Bond

Foreign Bond 10.0%

International Stock 10.0%

Cash 0.0%

BILL GUNDERSON WEEKLY TOP 300 LIST:

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Just an appetizer-the full list is below!

THIS SECTION IS FOR CLIENTS AND SUBSCRIBERS ONLY, BUT HERE ARE 200-300

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A- CVI C V R Energy 1625 2 37 174 276 6 18 184 201A- ADS Alliance Data Systems Corp 109 225 82 97 118 224 270 162 202A- APU Amerigas Partners Lp 1057 2120 1210 1014 698 586 518 317 203A- SCL Stepan Co 453 476 61 179 156 125 126 212 204A- CRAY Cray Inc 724 82 39 293 337 459 158 237 205A- MGAM Multimedia Games Inc 608 1872 1527 1716 857 717 65 189 206A- ULTI Ultimate Software 21 224 138 250 223 302 205 214 207A- POOL Pool Corp. 152 109 256 135 102 67 154 154 208A- MDSO Medidata Solutions 1068 1096 2575 1196 1230 1269 67 302 210A- GNC G N C Holdings 155 1210 1659 1197 987 600 68 221 211A- STWD Starwood Property Trust 136 654 647 242 249 370 122 157 212A- CZZ Cosan Ltd CI A 1409 929 166 298 650 167 149 185 213A- GWW Grainger WW Inc 103 534 268 461 84 110 63 191 214A- WCC Wesco Intl Inc 420 452 436 57 111 101 283 171 215A- FELE Franklin Electric Co 675 584 453 402 495 256 251 238 216A- GIII G-III Apparel Group, Ltd 537 12 1082 493 441 211 510 224 217A- IBA Industrias Bachoco Sa de CV 2341 688 338 969 969 417 291 311 218A- N Netsuite 1037 1816 195 223 519 758 114 226 219A- NWS News Corp Adr 690 603 944 346 254 306 324 228 221A- AME Ametek Inc 64 105 163 162 62 48 104 229 222A- CSU Capital Senior Living 387 227 144 438 424 179 179 234 223A- APOG Apogee Enterprises 2048 359 203 359 173 320 332 288 224A- HMSY HMS Hldgs Corp 19 1235 407 749 258 830 444 195 225A- NEOG Neogen Corp 229 14 115 334 87 123 168 117 226A- MYRG M Y R Group 0 255 581 1105 1405 1485 405 210 227A- MXE Mexico Equity and Income Fund 880 330 81 14 42 249 504 241 228A- ADES A D A ES Corp. 256 1907 1983 1749 973 557 238 307 229A- PIR Pier 1 Imports Inc 50 391 298 63 93 89 140 194 230A- STON Stomemor Partners 1746 1903 2313 510 569 239 212 303 231A- UGE Consumer Goods Index 2X 170 635 1823 296 202 231 300 249 232A- TCAP Triangle Captial Corp. 177 163 701 521 572 403 86 112 233A- GTLS Chart Industries 26 1324 411 1592 1099 629 285 173 234A- COO Cooper Companies Inc 306 100 482 526 357 108 221 233 235A- FLS Flowserve Corp 257 545 146 69 155 194 245 282 236A- PCCC PC Connection Inc 1229 2675 2327 2079 1613 1110 204 291 237A- REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals 6 133 86 221 107 216 646 325 238A- AWH Allied World Assurance 1302 1318 1231 1325 817 219 214 215 239A- CLB Core Laboratories NV 487 775 515 318 197 73 45 222 240A- HF H F F inc. 879 134 479 1082 949 454 301 200 241A- VAL Valspar Corp 130 79 66 64 110 279 777 260 242A- ASML ASML Hldgs NY Ny 98 729 137 35 18 22 85 253 243A- ATRO Astronics Corp 1064 2432 1694 1844 2069 374 261 223 244A- FSCI Fisher Communications 882 2235 1456 239 150 187 208 216 245A- NWSA News Corp 985 1497 1817 1297 946 1145 190 267 246A- VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals 878 1484 636 700 759 739 1223 218 247A- TYG Tortoise Energy Infra. 58 1541 2210 703 251 156 277 270 248A- PAG Penske Automotive Group ADD 385 398 396 511 581 473 333 249A- ABC Amerisourcebergen Corp 1219 223 175 210 232 140 194 273 250

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A- CHD Church & Dwight Co Inc 587 252 559 382 219 277 220 232 251A- LPX Louisiana Pacific Corp 518 355 77 288 396 235 250 211 252A- MHK Mohawk Ind Inc 1653 1307 73 83 175 83 216 274 253A- ALGN Align Tech Inc 104 798 799 1067 280 66 120 203 254A- CACC Credit Acceptance Corp. 92 711 275 479 1087 268 290 263 255A- CBST Cubist Pharmaceuticals 39 596 204 385 270 677 484 289 256A- FEIC FEI Co 251 117 254 112 195 26 14 172 257A- UHAL Amerco 458 66 135 77 161 301 66 213 258A- CONN Conns Inc 668 567 11 483 445 81 172 206 259A- OILT Oiltanking Ptnrs. 2810 987 1534 1254 1033 1121 96 248 260A- CLVS Clovis Oncology 0 2899 1848 1740 2399 2241 2540 208 261A- HNP Huaneng Pwr International Inc 2288 1023 64 303 63 88 132 90 262A- SYT Syngenta Ag Adr 874 403 884 694 660 946 289 277 263A- VFC VF Corp 119 174 594 576 686 714 481 313 264A- LUFK Lufkin Ind Inc 274 619 537 1339 644 991 134 278 265A- PCLN Priceline.com Inc 440 40 524 101 6 132 228 331 266A- APH Amphenol Corp Cl A 499 1143 364 733 866 323 318 230 267A- EXP Eagle Materials Inc 554 22 243 211 304 97 258 276 268A- JAH Jarden Corp 529 827 574 425 336 111 174 284 269A- KKD Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc 1505 759 121 82 91 160 304 338 270A- PXD Pioneer Natural Resource 295 524 1196 1046 891 876 156 321 271A- UHS Universal Health Svcs B 815 779 1078 287 141 327 384 286 272A- SAIA Saia Inc. 1360 767 418 785 800 679 116 292 273A- STX Seagate Technology 449 1347 611 172 72 282 966 255 274A- XBI Biotech Index 304 408 1109 486 201 720 741 198 275A- TPL Texas Pacific Land Trust 651 486 1113 1088 1188 1151 850 297 277A- ISIS ISIS Pharmaceuticals Inc 689 2845 2298 817 634 903 584 266 278A- SBAC SBA Communications Corp 116 37 43 129 368 457 513 280 279A- JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc 553 96 296 772 636 631 835 334 280A- TUP Tupperware Corp 454 187 251 281 116 161 141 259 282A- DEST Destination Maternity 627 30 607 561 397 227 401 264 283A- AMG Affiliated Managers 854 742 603 387 580 406 419 271 284A- NLSN Nielsen Hldgs. 2811 1162 891 1576 1036 1019 412 304 285A- KERX Keryx Biopharmaceuticals 2718 1798 3115 2988 522 728 705 306 286A- RFIL R F Industries 2577 2757 2774 42 355 396 1096 384 287A- RUTH Ruths Hospitality Group 2003 201 553 984 1124 1361 417 268 288A- DOV Dover Corp 755 472 332 264 438 318 370 281 289A- RYL Ryland Grp 1525 356 663 1087 1848 1746 1270 285 290A- STZ Constellation Brands A 533 854 1304 558 1284 546 260 322 291A- AKRX Akorn Inc. 227 144 485 139 608 1287 1273 287 292A- ARRS Arris Grp Inc 1954 1520 369 491 627 103 218 323 293A- BONT Bon Ton Stores Inc 1776 1971 522 748 1120 799 1490 254 294A- FAST Fastenal Co 206 456 56 31 33 31 59 308 295A- CEB Corp. Exec. Board 332 465 719 566 218 266 339 296A- HRB H & R Block 1385 1391 519 796 588 325 281 362 297A- RBC Regal-Beloit Corp 329 439 705 595 590 898 314 258 298A- WNR Western Refining 772 1046 937 625 575 839 90 314 299A- AMZN Amazon.com Inc 131 145 274 93 5 175 225 301 300

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Bill Gunderson’s Top 300 is a new feature in the newsletter. I can tell you from experience that it is very powerful. The Top 200 is a reflection of the market and the economy. These trends can remain in place for a long time. Sometimes bonds are at the top, sometimes cash is at the top, and there are even times when inverse funds rule the roost. Study this list carefully each week.

Bill Gunderson is a professional fee-based money manager. Gunderson Capital Management manages hundreds of accounts all across the country. Minimum account size is $50,000. Annual Mgt. fees are 2% on accounts under $250,000, 1.5%-1.75% on accounts between $250k and $1 million, and 1% on accounts over $1 million. Call us for a portfolio evaluation and more info. (855)611-BEST.

My Best Stocks Now Radio Hour is heard on the Salem Broadcast Network every weekday from 7:00am to 8:00am PST. I HAVE DISCONTINUED MY SAN DIEGO SHOW. THE STATION’S SIGNAL IS JUST TOO WEAK. I can now be heard in Atlanta.

You can listen live to the show on the internet through the station’s websites:

`

Seattle Orlando Twin Cities San Francisco Honolulu

Atlanta Tune-In App Best Stocks Now App

In additon to this we will also download the shows to the radio archives on my website http://pwstreet.com and send them to iTunes. There is no excuse to not keep up on your investments!

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Bill Gunderson is also columnist for The Street.com, MarketWatch.com, and SeekingAlpha.com.

I wrote wrote several articles this past week for Marketwatch and TheStreet.com. You can find them on their respective websites.

I also appeared on the Fox Business Channel on Friday, talking about the sin/vice stocks. I will post a copy of the interview to YouTube on Monday.

Watch for Bill Gunderson on:

Here are snippets on all of the stocks I have talked about on my radio show, and articles that I have written over the last few months. They are in alphabetical order.

http://pwstreet.com/good-bad-stocks/

MORTGAGE RATES remain at all-time lows. "Craig Brock, our local mortgage expert and bond market commentator on Positively Wall Street is actually closing HARP-2 loans for people (while

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many banks are hopelessly backlogged). Are you under water on your property? These new rules are helping folks who may not have otherwise qualified for a new loan at these historic low rates!

Talk to Craig! (855) 900-EASY" To order my book, Best Stocks Now, click the link below:

http://pwstreet.com/book/

To set up and appointment with me, click the link below:

http://pwstreet.com/contact-us/

http://www.pwstreet.com

@BillGunderson on Twitter

Bill@pwstreet.com Let me hear from you!

Subscriptions to this weekly newsletter are $195 per year or $60 per quarter. To subscribe call us at (855)611-BEST or visit our website at http://pwstreet.com. You can also mail a check to Gunderson Capital Mgt. 101 W.Broadway #1975 San Diego, CA 92101THIS REPORT PROVIDES GENERAL INFORMATION AND IS NOT AN OFFER TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. IT IS THE SOLE OPINION OF THE WRITER, BILL GUNDERSON. BILL GUNDERSON IS PRESIDENT

OF GUNDERSON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC. A REGISTERED INVESTMENT ADVISORY FIRM LOCATED AT 101 W. Broadway #1975, San Diego, CALIFORNIA PHONE NO. (855)611-BEST. BILL

GUNDERSON EDITS THE WEEKLY NEWSLETTER. INFORMATION IN THIS NEWSLETTER COMES FROM INDEPENDENT SOURCES BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE, BUT ACCURACY IS NOT GUARANTEED.

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MANAGE. THEY MAY ALSO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES MENTIONED WITHOUT NOTICE TO NEWSLETTER SUBSCRIBERS. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTONS, YOU CAN CONTACT BILL GUNDERSON AT (855)611-BEST