MARCH 2010Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM1 Scenario Planning What Is It? Scenario Planning is a method of business planning in which

MARCH 2010 Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM 1

Scenario PlanningScenario PlanningWhat Is It?What Is It?

• Scenario Planning is a method of business planning in which leaders consider a range of possible “scenarios” and develop plans relevant for each scenario.– These plans include evaluation of key business factors and how

changes in these will impact finances, operational needs, employment levels, workforce mix, and organizational structures.

– A key component of developing these scenarios is the evaluation of how influencing factors (e.g., technology, government, workforce demographics, etc.) may influence key business factors and subsequent operational needs.

• The following slides outline a Scenario Planning Model and simplified technique for discussing and creating Scenario Plans.


Scenario Planning ModelScenario Planning ModelWorkforce Levels & StructureWorkforce Levels & Structure

Fu

nd

ing

Complexity/Level of Services

Unsupported Growth

Operations ImpactEmployment Level ImpactWorkforce Mix/Structure Impact

Resource Investment


Growth


Status Quo or Decline


Scenario Planning ModelScenario Planning ModelWith Influencing FactorsWith Influencing Factors

Fu

nd

ing

Complexity/Level of Services

Unsupported Growth


Resource Investment


Growth


Status Quo or Decline


Wor

kfor

ce

Dem

ogra

phic

s

•Pop

ulat

ion

chan

ges

•Gen

erat

iona

l

know

ledg

e

•Tur

nove

r

•Ret

irem

ent e

ligib

ility

Labor Markets

•Skill availability

•Geographic

positioning

•Supply & demand

•Competitiveness

Technology

•Accessibility

•Evolution

•Cost

•Security

Government

•Federal influences

•Political influences

•Mandates

OtherFactors

Consider these and other influencing internal & external environmental factors when modeling your potential scenarios:


Scenario Planning StepsScenario Planning Steps(Simplified)(Simplified)

1. Brainstorm the potentials for each scenario. – Think about the implications for each. Think freely – this

step isn’t about creating a spreadsheet or financial model or staffing plan. Imagination of “what if” situations is key.

– A tool that may help you brainstorm (feel free to use other tools that work for your group):

– If appropriate and necessary, break into teams to flush out the specifics of each scenario. Come back to the larger group with a description and summary.

– A SWOT Analysis could be used in evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for each scenario once they are created.

2. Determine a plan for each scenario.– Compare the “current” with the “new.”– Identify gaps and ways to close those gaps.

Click here for a Sample SWOT Template

http://www.dhrm.virginia.gov/talentmanagement/documents/SWOT_sample_template.doc

MARCH 2010 Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM

1. Provide participants with self-stick notes.2. Each participant has a set timeframe in which to record

on the self-stick notes his/her thoughts about the 3 scenario planning impacts for each quadrant (you may want to do each quadrant separately). The participants post their self-stick notes on a whiteboard or wall.

3. The group begins reviewing and “mapping” or “clustering” like self-stick notes.

4. Once completed, repeat the process addressing the influencing environmental factors.

5. Your end result should be clusters of thoughts/information from which participants can develop detailed plans for each scenario quadrant.

Brainstorming ToolBrainstorming ToolMapping/Clustering: The BasicsMapping/Clustering: The Basics

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Documents

MARCH 2010Developed by Agency Human Resource Services, DHRM1 Scenario Planning What Is It? Scenario Planning is a method of business planning in which