MARCH 2016 OUTLOOK FOR SEMICONDUCTORS & POWER … · Q1 2015 slumps below -8.0%; Rest of year disappoints and drops 2015/16 negative . Quarterly semiconductor forecast Quarter-to-Quarter

© 2015 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

OUTLOOK FOR SEMICONDUCTORS & POWER DISCRETES & MODULES

Forecast Outlook

MARCH 2016

Dale Ford, Vice President


• Five year CAGR = 2.6% • Industrial Electronics leads growth followed by Automotive & Consumer Electronics & Wired • Industrial Electronics passed Data Processing as largest market in 2012; Wireless followed

in 2013

10.4%

7.3% 7.9%

5.7%

2.5%

-8.7%

13.3%

7.5%

3.7% 3.7% 4.4% 3.4%

1.9% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Year

-on-

Year

Gro

wth

Electronic systems market – Growth drops below 2% in 2016

Global Electronic Systems Revenue 2014 WW Revenue = $2.02 T

2

Semiconductor & Power Discrete & Module Outlook


-1%

1%

3%

5%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’14

to ‘1

9

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer Wired

Data Processing

Source – IHS Application Market Forecast Q4 2015

3

Electronics growth weighed down by Wireless & Data Processing



23.6%

4.1%

10.3%

3.9%

-5.1%

-10.9%

34.1%

1.3%

-2.5%

6.4% 8.6%

-1.0% -0.4%

3.2% 3.1% 4.8%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Year

-on-

Year

Gro

wth

Annual semiconductor outlook

Global Semiconductor Revenue 2015 Revenue = $351.5B


• Semiconductor market growth outlook – Next four years challenging • September 2012 began a new cycle that peaked in Q4 2014 – 2015/16 contracts • Long-term outlook sees five-year CAGR of only 1.9%

4



Historic alignment between economy and electronics Semiconductor growth profile continues to predict accurately

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019 R

eal G

DP

Gro

wth

Elec

tron

ic E

quip

men

t and

Sem

icon

duct

or R

even

ue G

row

th

Electronic Equipment OEM Factory Revenue Semiconductor Revenue WW Real GDP

Source – IHS Global Insight and IHS Technology

5



-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%Q

1'0

8Q

2'0

8Q

3'0

8Q

4'0

8Q

1'0

9Q

2'0

9Q

3'0

9Q

4'0

9Q

1'1

0Q

2'1

0Q

3'1

0Q

4'1

0Q

1'1

1Q

2'1

1Q

3'1

1Q

4'1

1Q

1'1

2Q

2'1

2Q

3'1

2Q

4'1

2Q

1'1

3Q

2'1

3Q

3'1

3Q

4'1

3Q

1'1

4Q

2'1

4Q

3'1

4Q

4'1

4Q

1'1

5Q

2'1

5Q

3'1

5Q

4'1

5Q

1'1

6Q

2'1

6Q

3'1

6Q

4'1

6

Q1 2015 slumps below -8.0%; Rest of year disappoints and drops 2015/16 negative

Quarterly semiconductor forecast

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth


Supply Chain Seizes

‘Snap Back’ More Than Anticipated

Alignment with Weak Electronics

Seasonality

Q2 Becomes New Peak

6

Weak 2015 Start

2016 Continues Weakness



2016 Growth – Weak and Negative

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%Q

1 20

11

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2011

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2012

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

F

Q1

2016

F

Q2

2016

F

Q3

2016

F

Q4

2016

F

Qua

rter-o

ver-Q

uarte

r Rev

enue

Gro

wth

Total Semiconductor DRAM + Data Flash Rest of Semiconductor


7



3/12 and 12/12 moving averages

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Dec

-03

Apr

-04

Aug

-04

Dec

-04

Apr

-05

Aug

-05

Dec

-05

Apr

-06

Aug

-06

Dec

-06

Apr

-07

Aug

-07

Dec

-07

Apr

-08

Aug

-08

Dec

-08

Apr

-09

Aug

-09

Dec

-09

Apr

-10

Aug

-10

Dec

-10

Apr

-11

Aug

-11

Dec

-11

Apr

-12

Aug

-12

Dec

-12

Apr

-13

Aug

-13

Dec

-13

Apr

-14

Aug

-14

Dec

-14

Apr

-15

Aug

-15

Dec

-15

Apr

-16

Aug

-16

Dec

-16

IHS 3/12 Average IHS 3/12 Forecast IHS 12/12 Average IHS 12/12 Forecast


8



New semiconductor growth drivers for next 5 years

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’14

to ‘1

9

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer

Wired

Data Processing


9



Power discrete revenues by market

Automotive & Transportation

27.4%

Industrial 21.0%

Computer & Office

Equipment 18.2%

Consumer 15.5%

Cellular Handsets &

Infrastructure 6.8%

Lighting 4.8%

Other Communications

3.3%

Renewable Energy 1.9%

Medical 1.1%

2015 Revenue = $12.4B

10

Automotive & Transportation

29.4%

Industrial 21.7%

Computer & Office

Equipment 16.2%

Consumer 14.8%

Cellular Handsets &

Infrastructure 6.8%

Lighting 4.2%

Other Communications

3.5% Renewable

Energy 2.2%

Medical 1.3%

2019 Revenue = $14.6B


Source – IHS The World Market for Power Semiconductors – 2015 Edition


Power discrete module revenues by market

Industrial Motor Drives 38.0%

Consumer 14.9%

Traction 11.6%

Car & Light Trucks 10.3%

Wind & Other Renewable

Energy 5.7%

Solar Energy 4.8%

Power Supplies 4.2%

Other Applications

10.5%

2015 Revenue = $4.6B

11

Industrial Motor Drives 35.4%

Consumer 16.6%

Traction 11.5%

Car & Light Trucks 13.5%

Wind & Other Renewable

Energy 4.9%

Solar Energy 4.8%

Power Supplies 3.7%

Other Applications

9.7%





Power discretes & modules growth drivers for next 5 years

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’14

to ‘1

9

2016 Growth

Wireless

Automotive

Industrial

Consumer

Wired

Data Processing


12



Power discrete revenues by device type

MOSFETs 48.5%

Rectifiers 27.5%

Discrete IGBTs 8.0%

Bipolar Power Transistors

7.1%

Thyristors 5.0%

Protected MOSFETs

2.9%

Pressure Contact IGBTs

0.6% GTOs, IGCTs

& GCTs 0.5%

2015 Revenue = $12.4B

13

MOSFETs 49.2%

Rectifiers 26.5%

Discrete IGBTs 9.0%

Bipolar Power Transistors

6.2%

Thyristors 4.7%

Protected MOSFETs

3.3%

Pressure Contact IGBTs

0.6% GTOs, IGCTs

& GCTs 0.5%

2019 Revenue = $14.6B




Power discretes growth opportunities

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ’14

to ‘1

9

2016 Growth

Rectifiers

MOSFETS

Protected MOSFETS

Thyristors

GTO, IGCT, GCTs

Pressure Contact IGBT

Bipolar Power

Transistors


14



Power discrete module revenues by module type

Standard (Non-Integrated)

IGBT Modules 46.5%

Intelligent Power Modules

(IPM) 29.9%

Thyristor/Diode Modules (&

Rectifier Bridges) 10.9%

Power Integrated Modules

(PIM)/CIB 7.8%

MOSFET Modules

5.0%


15

Standard (Non-Integrated)

IGBT Modules 48.2%

Intelligent Power Modules

(IPM) 30.7%

Thyristor/Diode Modules (&

Rectifier Bridges)

9.4%


(PIM)/CIB 7.4%

MOSFET Modules

4.4%





Power module growth opportunities

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

WW

Mar

ket C

AGR

For

ecas

t ‘14

to ‘1

9

2016 Growth

MOSFET Modules

Thyristor / Diode Modules

Intelligent Power

Modules (IPMS)


(PIM) / CIB

Standard (Non Integrated) IGBT Modules

16



Preliminary 2015 semiconductor market share for top 20 suppliers

17

Top Suppliers of Semiconductors Worldwide - Millions of Dollars2014 2015 2014 2015E Percent Percent CumulativeRank Rank COMPANY NAME Revenue Revenue Change of Total Percentage

1 1 Intel** 49,964 49,319 -1.3% 14.0% 14.0%

2 2 Samsung Electronics 38,064 40,722 7.0% 11.6% 25.6%

4 3 SK Hynix 16,113 16,944 5.2% 4.8% 30.4%

3 4 Qualcomm* 19,291 16,205 -16.0% 4.6% 35.0%

5 5 Micron Technology 16,110 14,759 -8.4% 4.2% 39.2%

6 6 Texas Instruments 12,246 12,285 0.3% 3.5% 42.7%

15 7 NXP* 5,483 10,104 84.3% 2.9% 45.6%

7 8 Toshiba 10,234 9,203 -10.1% 2.6% 48.2%

8 9 Broadcom** 8,398 8,414 0.2% 2.4% 50.6%

14 10 Avago Technologies** 5,644 6,951 23.2% 2.0% 52.6%

9 11 STMicroelectronics 7,404 6,887 -7.0% 2.0% 54.6%

13 12 Infineon Technologies* 5,937 6,870 15.7% 2.0% 56.5%

23 13 Apple 2,985 6,664 123.2% 1.9% 58.4%

10 14 MediaTek 7,016 6,571 -6.3% 1.9% 60.3%

11 15 Renesas Electronics Corporation 6,815 5,731 -15.9% 1.6% 61.9%

17 16 Sony 5,053 5,250 3.9% 1.5% 63.4%

12 17 SanDisk 6,264 4,796 -23.4% 1.4% 64.8%

19 18 nVidia 4,109 4,296 4.6% 1.2% 66.0%

16 19 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 5,388 3,914 -27.4% 1.1% 67.1%

21 20 ON Semiconductor** 3,516 3,528 0.3% 1.0% 68.1%

Other Semiconductor Companies 119,178 112,102 -5.9% 31.9% 100.0%

Total Semiconductor 355,212 351,515 -1.0% 100.0%* Includes 2015 Acquisitions; ** Does not include announced acquisitions for 2016


Source – IHS Competitive Landscaping Tool Q4 2015


Preliminary 2015 semiconductor market share for top 20 suppliers Plus results from major announced acquisitions expected to close in H1 2016

18

* Includes 2015 Acquisitions AND announced acquisitions for 2016

Top Suppliers of Semiconductors Worldwide - Millions of Dollars2014 2015 2014 2015E Percent Percent CumulativeRank Rank COMPANY NAME Revenue Revenue Change of Total Percentage

1 1 Intel** + Altera** 49,964 50,957 2.0% 14.5% 14.5%

2 2 Samsung Electronics 38,064 40,722 7.0% 11.6% 26.1%

4 3 SK Hynix 16,113 16,944 5.2% 4.8% 30.9%

3 4 Qualcomm* 19,291 16,205 -16.0% 4.6% 35.5%

8 5 Avago Technologies** + Broadcom** 5,644 15,365 172.2% 4.4% 39.9%

5 6 Micron Technology 16,110 14,759 -8.4% 4.2% 44.1%

6 7 Texas Instruments 12,246 12,285 0.3% 3.5% 47.6%

15 8 NXP* 5,483 10,104 84.3% 2.9% 50.5%

7 9 Toshiba 10,234 9,203 -10.1% 2.6% 53.1%

9 10 STMicroelectronics 7,404 6,887 -7.0% 2.0% 55.0%

13 11 Infineon Technologies* 5,937 6,870 15.7% 2.0% 57.0%

23 12 Apple 2,985 6,664 123.2% 1.9% 58.9%

10 13 MediaTek 7,016 6,571 -6.3% 1.9% 60.7%

11 14 Renesas Electronics Corporation 6,815 5,731 -15.9% 1.6% 62.4%

17 15 Sony 5,053 5,250 3.9% 1.5% 63.9%

21 16 ON Semiconductor** + Fairchild Semiconductor** 3,516 4,889 39.1% 1.4% 65.3%

12 17 SanDisk 6,264 4,796 -23.4% 1.4% 66.6%

19 18 nVidia 4,109 4,296 4.6% 1.2% 67.8%

16 19 Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 5,388 3,914 -27.4% 1.1% 69.0%

22 20 Analog Devices 3,094 3,358 8.5% 1.0% 69.9%

Other Semiconductor Companies 124,482 105,745 -15.1% 30.1% 100.0%

Total Semiconductor 355,212 351,515 -1.0% 100.0%




Combined market shares of top semiconductor suppliers

19

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Cum

ulat

ive

Mar

ket S

hare

Top 5

Top 10

Top 20

Top 25

Top 50

Top 100

Top 200

+8.2%

+11.0%

+8.7%




20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Top 5Top 10Top 20

Combined market shares of top power discrete & module suppliers

20

+0.9%

+10.6%

+7.3%




Average annual semiconductor revenue by ranking group

21

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Top 10 Top 11-25 Top 26-50 Top 51-100 Top 101-200 Top 201 plus OVERALLAVERAGE

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E




Average annual power discrete / module revenue by ranking group

22

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Top 5 Top 6 to 10 Top 11+ OVERALLAVERAGE

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

200120082015




Combined market shares of top five semiconductor suppliers in each market segment

23

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Cum

ulat

ive

Mar

ket S

hare

Total Semiconductor

Memory IC

Microcomponent

Logic IC

Analog IC

Discrete

Optical

Sensor / Actuator

• Qualcomm • Avago • Intel • Samsung • MediaTek

• Intel • NXP • AMD • Renesas • TI

• Samsung • Micron • SK Hynix • Toshiba • SanDisk




20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E

Cum

ulat

ive

Mar

ket S

hare

Total Semiconductor

Memory IC

Microcomponent

Logic IC

Analog IC

Discrete

Power Discrete

Optical

Sensor / Actuator

Combined market shares of top five semiconductor suppliers in each market segment

24

• Infineon • Mitsubishi • Toshiba • Fairchild • STMicroelectronics




Combined margins of 100 companies with semiconductor revenues over 70% of total company revenue Representing over 63% of semiconductor revenue in 2014

25

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annu

al M

argi

n

WEIGHTEDGROSS MARGIN

WEIGHTEDOPERATINGMARGIN

AVERAGEGROSS MARGIN

AVERAGEOPERATINGMARGIN

12.6%

15.6%

4.3%

1.6%




Comparison of Top 10 power discrete & module suppliers 2001 to 2015

26

Rank 2006 2015

1 STMicroelectronics Infineon Technologies

2 Fairchild Semiconductor Mitsubishi

3 International Rectifier Toshiba

4 Toshiba Fairchild Semiconductor

5 Infineon Technologies STMicroelectronics

6 Mitsubishi Vishay Intertechnology

7 Vishay Intertechnology Fuji Electric

8 Fuji Electric ON Semiconductor

9 ON Semiconductor Renesas Electronics Corporation

10 Sanken Electric Company ROHM Semiconductor



© 2015 IHS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 27

Top Ten Transformational Technologies . . . And More

1) Internet of Things

2) Cloud Computing / Big Data

3) 3D Printing

4) Energy Storage / Advanced Battery Technology

5) Graphene

6) Advanced User Interfaces

7) Sensors of all Types

8) Flexible Displays

9) Biometrics for Security / Health

10) Artificial Intelligence

• Encryption & Security

• Carrier Aggregation

• Wireless Charging

• Virtual Reality

• Biomedical Technology

• HEVC

• High Resolution Displays

• LTE Direct

• “Smart” Extensions

• Quantum Computing

• Visible Light Communications

CURRENT IHS TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH COVERAGE



The developing technology triumvirate

28

IoT

5G Cloud Waves of Amplified Growth



For More Information -

• The World Market for Power Semiconductors –2015 Edition https://technology.ihs.com/Services/426851/power-semiconductor-intelligence-service

• Semiconductor Application Forecast AMFT Intelligence Service https://technology.ihs.com/Services/548447/semiconductor-application-forecast-amft-intelligence-service

• Semiconductor Competitive Landscaping CLT Intelligence Service https://technology.ihs.com/Services/548450/semiconductor-competitive-landscape-clt-intelligence-service

29


https://technology.ihs.com/Services/426851/power-semiconductor-intelligence-service

https://technology.ihs.com/Services/548447/semiconductor-application-forecast-amft-intelligence-service

https://technology.ihs.com/Services/548447/semiconductor-application-forecast-amft-intelligence-service

https://technology.ihs.com/Services/548450/semiconductor-competitive-landscape-clt-intelligence-service

https://technology.ihs.com/Services/548450/semiconductor-competitive-landscape-clt-intelligence-service


OUTLOOK FOR SEMICONDUCTORS & POWER DISCRETES & MODULES

Forecast Outlook

MARCH 2016

Dale Ford, Vice President

Documents

MARCH 2016 OUTLOOK FOR SEMICONDUCTORS & POWER … · Q1 2015 slumps below -8.0%; Rest of year disappoints and drops 2015/16 negative . Quarterly semiconductor forecast Quarter-to-Quarter