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March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
Dr. Scott A. BraunTRMM Project Scientist
Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Branch (613.1)Laboratory for Atmospheres
NASA/GSFC
Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceCharleston, SCMarch 4, 2008
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
NASA Hurricane Research Focus Areas
Satellite remote sensing
Field campaigns Numerical modeling
Sensor development
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
Satellite Observations of Hurricanes
TRMM QuikscatAqua
CALIPSO/CloudSat
AuraGPM
JASON
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
NASA Field Programs
Program Manager: Ramesh KakarField programs coordinated with NOAA/Hurricane Research Division
1998 2001 2005
2006
NASA DC-8
NASA ER-2
GEOS5 & Katrina: The benefits of improved horizontal resolution
1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution
0.25 degree resolution
Precipitation Rate
0.25 degree resolution
1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution
Verifying Analysis from NOAA/NCEP
Sea Level Pressure
Improving the simulation of hurricanes on a global scale to understand the impacts of interannual variability and climate change on hurricanes
M. Rienecker et al.
NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) Program Applied to Tropical Systems
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
NASA Contributions to Research Priorities
SatellitesField exs.Priority research
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
Hot Towers in the Eyewall
Movie produced by Goddard’s Scientific Visualization Studio
• Tower formation, movement related to eyewall mesovortices (Braun et al., 2006)
• Mesovortices mix high energy air from eye into eyewall (Cram et al. 2007)
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
Does the Saharan Air Layer Have a Negative Influence?
Some storms are surrounded by Saharan air and yet intensify to Category 4 or 5 intensity.
Image: Hurricane Fabian (2003) surrounded by dry, dusty air. Data from TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS.
Dust 24-h Accumulated Rain 24-h Accumulated RainRelative Humidity
9
Special JAS Issue
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
VOLUME 63 NUMBER 1January 2006
Is a special CAMEX issue containing 21 papers
Preparations underway for TCSP/NAMMA special issue
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
NASA Contributions to Research Priorities
SatellitesField Exs.MAPPriority research
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
Hurricane Simulations Using Global Models
• Models used: GEOS5
• Allows simulation of global processes
• Used to study– Weather prediction
– Large-scale control
– Impacts of El Nino/La Nina
– Impact of climate change
GEOS4 simulation of Hurricane Ivan (2004)
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
High-Resolution Modeling
• Models used: MM5 and WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model)
• Allow simulation of fine-scale features of hurricanes
• Used to study
– Hurricane genesis
– The role of hot towers
– The impacts of vertical wind shear and the Saharan Air Layer
Tropical Storm Gert (2005)
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
NASA Contributions to Research Priorities
SatellitesField Exs.MAPPriority research
TRMM Tracks Changes In Rainfall Structure and Accumulation
• Combined with other satellites, the TRMM multi-satellite precipitation analysis (3B42) helps map rainfall evolution in hurricanes.
Available from http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Saffir/SimpsonCategory
54321TS
Hurricane Intensity
Surface Wind(km/h) (mph)248
20918015111861
156130112947438
9/08/04
9/12/04
9/14/04
9/15/04
9/16/04
• By itself, TRMM provides detailed views of hurricane structure and structure change (example here is Hurricane Isabel in 2003).
Hurricane Isabel accumulated rainfall
Vertical structure from PR
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
TRMM Measures Heavy Rainfall from Hurricane Noel
http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov
Images by Hal Pierce, NASA/GSFC
• TRMM Multi-satellite precipitation analysis measures >400 mm of rain over D. R. and Haiti from Noel
• 81 deaths, several hundred thousand displaced
“Your images have been incredible--they are stunning and extremely useful. It was even presented to the minister of environment and head of disasters in the DR. Deeply appreciated. Please know we are crediting you everywhere.” – Daniel Irwin, MSFC, SERVIR Project Manager
• Key CloudSat observations are vertical profiles of:
• cloud liquid water content• cloud ice water content• cloud physical & radiative properties
• Furnish data needed to improve model
predictions of clouds to increase understanding cloud-climate feedback
• Provide data needed to improve weather forecast models (CloudSat data already being assimilated into Navy’s operational weather forecast model)
Alt
itu
de
(km
)
MODIS12 µm Channel
CloudSat Radar Reflectivity (dBZ)
B
AA
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Hurricane Ileana23 August 2006 2100 UTC
B20
0
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
Instrument Development
• Wind lidar technologies
• Scanning Doppler radar (HIWRAP)
• Hurricane imaging radiometer (HIRAD)
• Geostationary microwave sounder (Geostar)
• NEXRAD in SpaceHurricane Eyewall
Snow/ice
RainCld-free
0 km
16 km
surface winds
3D horiz. windsin precip and cld
Ku & Ka BandKu & Ka Band
HIWRAP Concept
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
Planning/Implementation Activities
• Airborne Integration Program (2007)– Test new technologies on aircraft– e.g., HIWRAP, Twilite
• Wind Lidar Science (2007)– Development and implementation of wind lidar
technologies
• ROSES 2008– NASA Research Announcement in February for
hurricane studies– Convene hurricane science team to guide
deployment for 2010 field campaign
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
ROSES 2008
Application of multiple NASA assets (satellite and field data) to hurricane research problems
Image: Hurricane Fabian (2003) surrounded by dry, dusty SAL air. Data from TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS.
Dust 24-h Accumulated Rain 24-h Accumulated RainRelative Humidity
21
March 4, 2008 Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, Charleston, SC
NASA Science Questions
• How is the Earth system changing?– How are global precipitation, evaporation, and water
cycling changing?
• What are the consequences of change for human civilization?– How are variations in weather, precipitation, and water
resources related to climate variation?
• How will the Earth system change in the future and how can we improve predictions through advances in remote sensing, data assimilation, and modeling? – How can weather forecast reliability be improved?
23
Packing Heat in the Gulf
Altimetry combined with SST data and a two-layer model is used to calculate Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP)TCHP is a measure of the oceanic heat content from the sea surface to the 26°C isotherm Both hurricanes rapidly intensified to category 5 as they passed over the Loop Current and a warm ring, then diminished to category 4 and category 3, respectively, by the time they traveled over cooler waters High values of TCHP may be linked to hurricane intensification.