Mare Forum.5th Blue Shipping Summit

Bridging green technology and profit sustainability – regula6ons – new ships – new fuels – innova6ons – investments

Presented By: Maria Bertzeletou, Senior Shipping Analyst

GOLDEN DESTINY, since 1994 Piraeus – Istanbul 21 Years Interna6onal Presence

Lloyds List Award Shipbroker of the Year “2009” – Quality of Services cer6fied by ISO BV.9001:2008

SALE & PURCHASE – MARINE INSURANCE – SHIP VALUATIONS – MARKET RESEARCH 1

5th Blue Shipping Summit 2015

Subjects under review:

Sec6on 1: •  Historical Development of World Seaborne Trade •  Correla6on of Seaborne Trade – World Output – World

Trade •  Historical Development of World Fleet – Seaborne Trade •  Historical growth of Seaborne Trade per major commodi6es: •  (Dry -‐ Wet -‐ Liquid Gas -‐Container)

2


SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH

Historical Growth of Seaborne Trade-‐Flat Trend % Growth rates


3


5,416 6,858

8,260 10,846

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Historical Development -‐World Seaborne Trade mil tons

3% 5%

6%

4%

-‐4%

9%

4% 4% 3%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(%Annual Percentage)-‐World Seaborne Trade mil tons

% growth seaborne trade

•  Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 31% -‐ 3% average annual growth rate •  Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 25% -‐ 5% average annual growth rate

2003-‐2015: A new era of growth – 58% increase

Correla6on: Seaborne Trade -‐ World Output – World Trade

“Entering in a phase of Great Modera3on”


4


3.7 5.2 5.3 2.7

-‐0.40 5.2

3.9 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.8

3.9

World Output World Trade

Es6ma6ons and projec6ons based on IMF data

PHASE OF GREAT

MODERATION

3% 5%

6%

4%

-‐4%

9%

4% 4% 3%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(%Annual Percentage)-‐World Seaborne Trade mil tons

Historical Growth of Seaborne Trade-‐World Merchant Fleet % Growth rates


5


0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Historical Development -‐World Merchant Fleet Mil dwt

2003-‐2006: >60,000 vessels 2011-‐2015: >80,000 vessels

3%

7% 6% 9%

3%

3%

-‐6% -‐4% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Fleet % Growth Seborne Trade % Growth World Fleet has doubled since 2003 From 2015, the supply demand gap narrows to 1% Annual Fleet growth nears to levels of 2004-‐2005, but world fleet is excessive, while seaborne trade shows weak recovery

5,416 6,858

8,260 10,846

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Historical Development -‐World Seaborne Trade mil tons

•  2003-‐2006 Seaborne trade: 5% Fleet growth 2.5% -‐ Surplus 2.5% •  2007-‐2010 Seaborne trade: 3% Fleet growth 6.5% -‐ Deficit (3.5%)

•  2011-‐2014 Seaborne trade: 4% Fleet growth 8.2% -‐ Deficit (4.2%)

2003-‐2015: A new era of growth – 58% increase

Historical Growth of Seaborne Trade-‐Dry Bulk Trade mil Tons From 2003: A new era of development with declining trend of growth from 2011


6


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

mil tons -‐ Seaborne trade Liquid Gas Trade

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2mil tons -‐ Seaborne trade

LNG Trade

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

mil tons -‐ Seaborne trade

Iron Ore Trade

Bauxite/Alumina Trade

Grain Trade

Coal Trade

Phosphate Rock Trade

•  Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 45% •  Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 35%

•  Sharp upward trend -‐iron ore Sol upward trend -‐ coal

2003: >2,000 mil tons

801 mil tons 1,412 mil tons

1,735 mil tons

-‐15%

-‐10%

-‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


% dry bulk %container Dry Bulk Trade Container Trade

2010: >3,000 mil tons

2015: >4,000 mil tons

Dry Bulk Trade in close correla6on with iron ore and coal trade

Historical Growth of Seaborne Trade-‐Wet Trade mil Tons From 2003: A new era of development with declining trend of growth 2011-‐2014 and

reversed upward momentum from 2015


7


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

mil tons -‐ Seaborne trade Liquid Gas Trade

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2mil tons -‐ Seaborne trade

LNG Trade


•  Sharp upward trend -‐ crude oil Sol upward trend -‐ coal •  Flat upward trend -‐ chemicals trade

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


Chemicals Trade

Crude Oil Trade

Oil Products Trade

-‐4.00%

-‐2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


%wet Wet Trade

Wet Trade in close correla6on with crude oil trade

2003: >2,000 mil tons 2011: >3,000 mil tons

Historical Growth of Seaborne Trade-‐Liquid Trade mil Tons From 2011: A new era of growth with flat momentum from 2015

due to slower growth in LNG


8


•  Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 37% -‐ At similar growth Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 •  Growth –Aler 2011 2011-‐2015 7% •  Sharp upward trend – LNG – flat momentum since 2014 •  Steady flow -‐LPG – increasing trend since since 2014

183 cu.m tons

247 cu.m tons 254 cu.m tons

61 mil tons 75 mil tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

cu.m tons -‐ Seaborne trade

LNG Trade

LPG Trade

2014-‐2015: Flat Trend

-‐5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

cu.m tons -‐ Seaborne trade

Liquid Gas Trade % Liquid Gas Trade

2003: <200 cu.m tons

2011:>300 cu.m tons

Liquid Trade in close correla6on with LNG trade


Sec6on 2: Today’s Shipping Crisis is a Demand or Supply Crisis? •  Dry Bulk Trade – Development of Bulk Carriers Fleet •  Wet Trade – Development of Tankers Fleet •  Gas Trade – Development of Liquid Tankers Fleet •  Container Trade – Development of Containers Fleet


9


Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade-‐Development of Fleet Demand –Supply imbalance widens again!!


10


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

mil tons -‐ Seaborne trade #REF!

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


3,861 2,082

5,315

10,315

12%

4%

-‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

BULKERS

Orderbook Current Fleet Fleet Growth

•  Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 48% •  Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 21% •  Declining fleet growth, but excessive no of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units •  (3.5% 2014-‐2015) •  (10% 2010-‐2012)

since 2014; >10,000 vessels

2006 -‐2009: 6,000-‐7,000 vessels

-‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Dry Bulk Supply -‐ Demand

% fleet in mil dwt % fleet in no. of units %dry bulk trade

Demand – Supply , in terms of units •  2014: Surplus 1% •  2015: Deficit (1%) Demand – Supply , in terms of dwt •  2014: Deficit (1%) •  2015: Deficit (2%)

Wet Seaborne Trade-‐Development of Fleet From 2015: Wet trade exceeds fleet growth in terms of units & dwt


11


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


•  Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 21% •  Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 32% •  Declining fleet growth, but excessive no of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units •  (1.4% 2014-‐2015) •  ( 5% 2010-‐2012)

1,920 841

3,356

5,917

4%

1%

-‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

TANKERS: >10,000 Dwt


-‐4.00%

-‐2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Wet Supply -‐ Demand

% fleet in mil dwt % fleet in no. of units %wet trade

2006 -‐2009: 3,900-‐4,900 vessels

since 2010; >5,000 vessels

Demand – Supply , in terms of units •  2014: Deficit (1.5%) •  2015: Surplus 1% Demand – Supply , in terms of dwt •  2014: Deficit (2%) •  2015: Surplus 1%

Nega6ve growth 2013-‐2014 of wet trade

Dry -‐Wet Seaborne Trade-‐Supply /Demand-‐ Freight Market


12


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


-‐10.00%

-‐5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Dry Segment -‐ Supply Demand

supply demand gap (in units of fleet) supply demand gap (in mil dwt)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Baltic Dry Index (2000-2015 )

1st phase of cycle 2009-‐2012

2nd phase of cycle 2013-‐2015

-‐10.00%

-‐5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Wet Segment -‐ Supply Demand

supply demand gap (in units of fleet) supply demand gap (in mil dwt)

0 200 400 600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Baltic Dirty / Clean Index (2000-2015 )

Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index

Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index

1st phase of cycle 2009-‐2013



Bal6c Exchange Indices Modern Tonnage (DRY / WET) 1 year TC -‐$/day

13

-‐80% -‐70% -‐60% -‐50% -‐40% -‐30% -‐20% -‐10% 0%

BDI BCI BPI BSI BHSI

-‐45%

-‐71%

-‐45% -‐34% -‐31%

Dry -‐ Indices % y-‐o-‐y

0%

5%

10%

15%

BDTI BCTI

10%

13%

Wet-‐ Indices % y-‐o-‐y

-‐100%

-‐70%

-‐40%

-‐10%

20%

50%

80%

Capesize Panamax VLCC Suezmax

-‐53% -‐35%

60% 43%

Dry /Wet-‐ Large Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y

-‐40%

-‐20%

0%

20%

40%

Handymax Handy Aframax MR -‐28% -‐14%

31%

-‐1%

Dry /Wet-‐ Small Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y



LNG Seaborne Trade-‐Development of Fleet

From 2014: LNG trade below fleet growth in terms of units & mil cu.m


14


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



•  Increasing fleet growth, with threat of over supply Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units •  ( 6% 2014-‐2015) •  ( 10% 2010-‐2012)

Demand – Supply , in terms of units •  2014: Deficit (3%) •  2015: Deficit (5%) Demand – Supply , in terms of cu.m •  2014: Deficit (3%) •  2015: Deficit (6%)

2004-‐2009: 150-‐300 vessels

Since 2010: > 300 vessels 2015: >400 vessels

85

157 112

415

4%

-‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

100

200

300

400

500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E

LNG Tankers


-‐5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

LNG Supply -‐ Demand

% fleet in mil cu.m % fleet in no. of units %lng trade

LPG Seaborne Trade-‐Development of Fleet From 2010: LPG trade surpasses fleet growth in terms of units & mil cu.m


15


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


•  Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 13% •  Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 6% •  Increasing fleet growth, but low volume of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units •  (2.3% 2014-‐2015) •  (2.3% 2010-‐2012)

Demand – Supply , in terms of units •  2014: Surplus 7% •  2015: Surplus 6% Demand – Supply , in terms of cu.m •  2014: Surplus 3% •  2015: Surplus 3%

203 231

955

1,277

3%

-‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

0 200 400 600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E

LPG Tankers


2004-‐2011: 1,000-‐1,200 vessels

Since 2012: .> 1,200 vessels 2015 nears to 1,300 vessels

-‐10.00%

-‐5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

LPG Supply -‐ Demand

% fleet in mil cu.m % fleet in no. of units %lpg trade

1 year TC -‐$/day Modern Tonnage

LNG Tankers Nega6ve Momentum-‐ LPG Posi6ve

16

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

LPG-‐82,000 cbm

65,700 52,000

31,400

LPG-‐ Large Size Categories

2015

2014

2013

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

LNG-‐160,000 cbm

41,000

70,000 90,000

LNG -‐ Large Size Categories

2015

2014

2013

-‐60%

-‐40%

-‐20%

0% 2015-‐2014 2015-‐2013

-‐41%

-‐54%

LNG-‐ Large Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y

0%

50%

100%

150%

2015-‐2014 2015-‐2013

26%

109%

LPG-‐ Large Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y



Container Seaborne Trade-‐Development of Fleet From 2013: Fleet growth in terms of units below 1%, but imbalance

demand-‐supply in terms of TEU


17


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


•  Growth -‐Post Crisis 2009-‐2015 8% •  Growth -‐Before Crisis 2003-‐2008 43% •  Nega6ve fleet growth, but high volume of units Average Annual Fleet Growth , in no of units •  (0.3% 2014-‐2015) •  (2.3% 2010-‐2012)

Demand – Supply , in terms of units •  2014: Surplus 6% •  2015: Surplus 7% Demand – Supply , in terms of teu •  2014: Surplus 0.3% •  2015: Deficit (1.3%)

2003: >3,000 vessels

Since 2012: > 5,000 vessels

1,194 459

5106

3.44%

-‐0.06%

-‐2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E

Containers


-‐10%

-‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Container Supply -‐ Demand

% fleet in mil teu % fleet in no. of units %cont trade

1 year TC -‐$/day Modern Tonnage

Containers are gaining ground against the fall in spot rates

18

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2,750 TEU 1,700 TEU

9,250 8,000 7,400 7,000

Container -‐ Small Size Categories

2015

2014

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

4,400 TEU 3,500 TEU

15,000 10,250

8,800 7,700

Container -‐ Large Size Categories

2015

2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

4,400 TEU 3,500 TEU

70%

33%

Container-‐ Large Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y

0%

10%

20%

30%

VLCC Suezmax

25% 14%

Container Small Size Categories % y-‐o-‐y




Sec6on 3: Bulkers & Tankers : The main vessel categories with the highest growth of investments •  Growth of Shipping Investments a\er 2009 •  Secondhand Market: Investment Trends •  Asset Prices: Bulkers & Tankers per vessel size and age category

•  Newbuilding Market: Investment Trends •  Asset Prices: Bulkers & Tankers per vessel size and age category


19


SECONDHAND/NEWBUILDING MARKET (INVESTMENTS)

SHIP VALUATIONS - MARKET RESEARCH 20


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-April 2015

usd

,00

0

SECONDHAND MARKET

Total Purchases Inv

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

BC 46% 38% 34% 33% 35% 32% 30%

TNK 20% 26% 28% 29% 33% 37% 32%

Liquid Gas 1% 3% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4%

Cont 8% 9% 9% 12% 13% 13% 17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

% Volume of SH Purchases -‐ Per Vessel Type

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-April 2015

usd

, 0

00

NEWBUILDING MARKET

Total Orders Inv

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

BC 42% 56% 37% 24% 37% 33% 20%

TNK 21% 17% 12% 20% 16% 18% 20%

Liquid Gas 2% 4% 5% 8% 8% 10% 6%

Cont 4% 8% 19% 6% 11% 7% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

% Volume of NB Orders-‐ Per Vessel Type

SECONDHAND MARKET (BULKERS/TANKERS)


380 480 457

104

74,609 67,332

81,111

57,511

0

200

400

600

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

BULKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT

Count of Vessel Purchases Average of Vessel DWT

14

12

10

13

2012

2013

2014

2015

BULKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL AGE 10-‐15 YRS

Average of Vessel Age

52,552 67,318

91,405 80,031

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

TANKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 INCREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT

Count of Vessel Purchases Average of Vessel DWT

11

10

9

9

2012

2013

2014

2015

TANKER INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL AGE 5-‐10 YRS

Average of Vessel Age


Asset Prices – Trends BULKER SEGMENT


Handy Vessel Age Shiftting trend >15yrs

Asset Price Sharp Decreasing Trend

Handysize Vessel Age Shiftting trend 6-‐10yrs


Handymax Vessel Age Flat 15-‐20yrs


10,000-‐29,999 DWT

30,000-‐39,999 DWT

40,000-‐49,999 DWT

(HANDY / HANDYMAX)




(SUPRA/PANAMX/CAPE)

50,000-‐59,999 DWT

Supramax Vessel Age 6-‐10 yrs


60,000-‐79,999 DWT Panamax Vessel Age 10-‐15 yrs


Capesize Vessel Age 10-‐15 yrs



Asset Prices – Trends TANKER SEGMENT


(SMALL/HANDY/MR) Small Vessel Age Shiftting trend < 10yrs

Asset Price Increasing trend

ST ST Handy Vessel Age Increasing trend > 10yrs

Asset Price Sharp Declining Trend

MR Vessel Age Declining trend < 10yrs

Asset Price Soft Increasing Trend




(CRUDE SIZES)

Aframax Vessel Age Declining trend < 10yrs

Asset Price Sharp Increasing Trend

Suezmax Vessel Age Declining trend < 10yrs


VLCC Vessel Age Declining trend < 15yrs



NEWBUILDING MARKET (BULKERS/TANKERS)


26

72,462 92,827 86,790

54,493

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

BULKER NB INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 DECREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT: SUPRAMAX

90,155 89,092 96,798 127,745

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

TANKER NB INVESTMENTS 2012-‐2015 INCREASING TREND TO VESSEL DWT: CRUDE

3%

7%

8%

13%

14%

16%

39%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Panamax

SUEZMAX

SMALL

VLCC

Aframax

Handysize

MR-‐Handymax

TANKER ORDERING PER VESSEL SIZE

2% 2% 2%

5% 16% 16%

21% 30%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Handy (10,000-‐29,999) Panamax

Handymax Supramax

Kamsarmax Capesize

Handysize Ultramax

BULKER ORDERING PER VESSEL SIZE




27

Handysize Country Built China-‐ Major shareAsset Price Flat-‐Upward trend

Supramax Country Built Japan-‐ Major shareAsset Price Flat trend

Ultramax Country Built China-‐ Major share

Asset Price Downward trend


(HANDY /MEDIUM SIZES)



28

Capesize Country Built China-‐ Major share

Asset Price Increasing trend

Kamsarmax Country Built China-‐ Major share

Asset Price Flat-‐Upward trend

Panamax Country Built Japan-‐ Major share

Asset Price Flat-‐ trend


(LARGE SIZES)


29

MR Country Built SKR Major shareAsset Price Upward trend

Handysize Country Built Japan Major shareAsset Price Upward trend

Small Country Built China Major shareAsset Price Upward trend


(HANDY /MEDIUM SIZES)



30

VLCC Country Built China-‐ Major shareAsset Price Increasing trend

Suemax Country Built SKR-‐ Major share

Asset Price Flat -‐ Downward trend

Aframax Country Built China Major shareAsset Price Flat -‐ Upward trend


(LARGE SIZES)


CONCLUSION : “OVERCAPACITY PREVAILS”

“2015 -‐2020”: WILL BE CHALLENGING PERIOD

SHIFTING TRENDS IN WORLD FLEET AND INVESTMENTS


31


•  The world fleet is becoming increasingly young from the high contrac6ng ac6vity of previous years -‐ Only 11% of the world fleet is older than 20yrs old

•  Scrapping poten6als more in smaller vessel sizes and in age categories 16-‐20yrs old

•  Bulk carriers, tankers and containers s6ll comprise the majority of the global merchant fleet. •  However, LPG and LNG carriers are increasing gradually the ir share to the world fleet aler 2009

•  Decreasing trends for this year in secondhand and newbuilding investments aler the years of 2013 and 2014

•  Secondhand Market: Sharp Upward trend in asset prices for crude tankers and new bowom lows in the dry segment for all sizes

•  2015: sets a new cycle in asset prices for bulkers, while year “2012” seems that was the year with the lowest asset prices in the tanker segment since 2009

•  2015: Brings the tanker vessel categories for the first 6me since “2009” in the frontline for shipping investments by grasping the lion share of ac6vity from bulkers


32


•  Scrapping ac6vity implies that this year will set one more year with record levels aler 2012

•  Is Demoli6on Ac6vity enough to alleviate the pain of overcapacity?

•  The world fleet in now too much excessive compared with 2003 levels, and although shipping demand may not have returned to the levels of 2006-‐2007, it shows bewer figures

•  However, trading ac6vity from emerging economies , India and China has to be firmer to narrow the vessel supply and demand imbalance

•  Tankers and LPG tankers are the star performers for this year •  Overall shipping investments will not loose their pace and follow the new trends of freight

market and asset prices


33


For more Research Services, please contact us: Website : www.goldendes6ny.com

34

Documents

Mare Forum.5th Blue Shipping Summit