MMaarriinnee

GGeeooggrraapphhiicc IInnffoorrmmaattiioonn

SScciieennccee

22001111 PPrroojjeecctt PPrreesseennttaattiioonnss

BBII//GGEE 557788

Investigation of harmful anthropogenic disturbances to migrating gray whales off the coast of California: creating a new seasonal marine sanctuary

Cara Bornstein, Julia Luthringer, & Mary-Katherine Rogener

Gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus, migrate along the coast of the western United States,

Canada and Northern Mexico and remain approximately 3km from the coast. Due to the proximity to the coastline, the whales are greatly affected by natural and anthropogenic

stressors including shipping lanes and gas and oil drilling. The focus of this study is to

determine the most dangerous area for the migrating Gray Whales based on the compilation of harmful factors, and then implement a new gray whale sanctuary. This study was completed by

importing data from many different literature and government-supported agencies into ArcMap

and analyzing the data to determine where the gray whale habitat overlaps with harmful

stressors off the California coast. Data included Gray Whale sightings along the coast, sea surface temperature, oil platform locations, shipping lanes, ports and ship tracks. From our

analysis, we were able to propose a new, seasonal gray whale sanctuary off the coast of

California, which would allow for a safe migration from Alaska to Mexico and back.

Spatial analysis of changes in shark populations and implications for fishing policy due to trophic shifts in North Carolina’s central coast

Reena Clements

Sharks are susceptible to overfishing in part due to high demand for shark fin and meat. Removal of large sharks causes trophic cascades. Populations of cownose rays can bloom,

which causes shellfish populations to decrease. The University of North Carolina Institute of

Marine Sciences has conducted longline shark surveys since 1972. These data can be used to study the changes in shark populations and infer the extent of the resulting trophic shifts. Two

species of large coastal sharks (sandbar and scalloped hammerhead) and one species of small

coastal shark (Atlantic sharpnose) were studied. Data were plotted in GIS for basic spatial analysis. Shark data was sorted by survey area and year. It was plotted within each study area

in ArcMap and maps were generated for each year class. Shellfish collection areas and

submerged aquatic vegetation data were acquired from NC OneMap and NOAA and plotted in

GIS on the same map as the shark abundances. The proportion of large sharks caught in the survey decreased over the study period while the proportion of the small sharks caught

increased. Further regulations should be placed on shark fishing to allow for the recovery of

large sharks. In the estuaries near the shark surveys, shellfishing is allowed and overlaps with seagrass bed areas. To prevent the complete collapse of the shellfish fishery, shellfishing

should be ceased in areas with seagrass beds while large shark populations recover.

Mapping Anthropogenic Stressors on Cook Inlet Beluga Whales

Jess Molskness

The decline of the Cook Inlet Beluga Whale population has long been blamed on overhunting by the Dena’ina tribe of Tyonek who have hunted beluga for centuries. But it is becoming clearer;

as hunting has stopped and whale populations have not recovered, that other anthropogenic

impacts might be the reason population has not yet rebounded. This study used ArcGIS to

investigate anthropogenic impacts that could be affecting the population recovery of the Cook Inlet beluga whales. By looking at spatial overlap and proximity of different anthropogenic

impacts to beluga density and critical habitat, the negative impacts could be assessed. It was

found that it is a combination of many anthropogenic stressors that are most likely preventing

the beluga population from fully recovering.

A Counter-Attack: The Modeling of Potential Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) Invasion in North American Lakes and Rivers with an Emphasis on Lake Michigan

Kendall Valentine

The Great Lakes have been subject to the invasive species Dreissena polymorpha (common name: Zebra Mussel) since the late 1980s when large cargo ships from Europe introduced them

into the environment. Since then, they have encrusted many of the lakes in the Great Lakes

basin and are starting to invade inland lakes, causing an ecological and economical burden. In order to predict areas that zebra mussels will inhabit, a model was created in ArcGIS based on

suitability and risk factors. The suitability factors included in the model were dissolved calcium

content, pH, depth, and substrate type. The risk factors that were analyzed were shipping lanes

and large ports. The model was applied to Lake Michigan to test the accuracy. The combined risk and suitability model included 23% of the mussel data points in a moderate to high risk and

suitability region. Based on the accuracy analysis, the model created incorporated some

important factors, but there are other factors that would need to be incorporated into the model in order to accurately predict zebra mussel distribution. A slightly adjusted model could be

applied to other lakes within similar elevations and temperatures in North America to evaluate

the risk of zebra mussel invasion.

Estimating and predicting methane emissions from a New England salt marsh system

Hollie Emery

As concerns about the effects and severity of global climate change have increased, salt marshes and other wetlands have been recognized as important players in the global carbon

cycle. All wetlands sequester biomass because waterlogged, anoxic, sediment slows

decomposition and CO2 emission. However, many wetlands produce high levels of methane (a greenhouse gas 23 times more powerful that CO2) when biomass does decay under anoxic

conditions. Salt marshes and other tidal saline wetlands are the exception, however, because

the daily influx of sulfate-rich ocean water enables sulfate-reducing bacteria to outcompete methanogens. As the human population has expanded, many marshes in New England have

been drained, filled, and tidally altered, causing the soils to become dryer and less influenced by

ocean water, potentially leading to lower sequestration and higher methane emissions,

respectively. It is therefore important to quantify and compare the methane emissions from salt marshes that are relatively unaffected by human development and those that have been

impacted by it. In order to estimate the methane emissions in the Great Marsh North of Boston,

MA, I compiled databases of salinity and biomass, as both of these variables have been shown to have high explanatory power for methane emissions in salt marshes. Field data (salinity and

biomass) were interpolated over the salt marsh vegetation zone, and NDVI was calculated from

LANDSAT. The simple spatial model was calibrated with experimentally collected flux data measured by me and gathered from the literature, and used to predict the methane emissions

from the marsh in different seasons and before and after tidal restoration events. Estimating

methane emissions with a simple, straightforward model such as this one has great potential to

aid scientists and policy makers who are faced with the challenge of understanding and mitigating global climate change.

Investigating Radial Basis Function and Kriging to Create an Efficient Historical Baseline Using Weir Fishing Data

Elizabeth King, Binland Lee, Molly McCargar, & Erica Ross

Historical fishing weir data is used to create a historical baseline for commercially important fish

species in Cape Cod Bay, Nantucket Sound, and Buzzard’s Bay/Vineyard Sound. Historical baselines are means of measuring temporal changes in optimal ecosystem services of different

species. Historical baselines are important in creating management plans for fisheries. We are

taking a proactive approach in creating a baseline from fishing weir data for herring, mackerel,

menhaden, and alewife from 1876-1896. We used ArcMap to create a spatial representation of our historical data based on five year intervals. We then experimented with different methods of

interpolation and spatial prediction to determine which method most accurately created a

historical baseline that could be applied to some weirs with missing data. Using an ANOVA test, we concluded that there was a significant decrease in fish counts from 1876-1896. We also

decided that Radial Basis Function Interpolations are best for this data although there is not a

significant difference between that and kriging.

A Quantitative Analysis of the Success of Restored Oyster Reefs on Decreasing Total Suspended Solids in the Chesapeake Bay

Rebecca Lauzon

Few studies have attempted to assess the impacts of oyster restoration efforts on a large scale with field measurements in the Chesapeake Bay. The population of eastern oysters

(Crassostrea virginica) in the Bay has declined in the past two centuries, coinciding with an

increased nutrient load and leading to phytoplankton blooms, eutrophication, hypoxia, and a decline in submerged aquatic vegetation. Data from long-term water quality monitoring stations

(n=53) along with restored oyster reef locations (n=53) on the Virginia side of the Bay were

mapped to examine total suspended solids (TSS) through secchi depth disk measurements. These depth measurements were interpolated using kriging methods determined to have low

error and analyzed temporally and spatially. A consistent trend was present of lower TSS in

rivers and higher TSS at the mouth of the bay. Total change from 1985-2009 revealed an

average increase in secchi disk depth in the rivers of as much as 0.359233 m, and an average decrease in the Bay of as little as -0.88852 m. Spatial analysis revealed that secchi disk depths

were greater in buffered areas (5000 versus 10000 m rings) directly around oyster reefs by as

much as 0.014845 m. While there is an evident reduction in TSS in these data, this increase is on a very small scale and there is no overall increase evident in the Bay as a whole. These data

support other studies which recommend oyster restoration as a supplement and not a substitute

for nutrient load reduction in the Chesapeake Bay.

The Effect of Combined Sewer Overflows on the Concentration of E. Coli in the Charles River Basin Christina Stephens

The Charles River of Boston is 80 miles long, runs through 22 towns, and ends at the Boston Harbor leading into the Atlantic Ocean. It passes trough a wide range of residential and urban

areas and is fed by many brooks and streams along the way. It is a popular recreational location

for many types of boating and the banks of the Charles are often flanked by bike trails, boating clubs, and parks. Its banks have been shaped by the land expansion with has occurred

throughout the history of Boston to accommodate the city's growing population. Another

accommodation to support Boston’s large population is the presence of combined sewer

overflows (CSOs) from the Massachusetts Water Resource Authority (MWRA). I hypothesized that the concentrations of Escherichia coli (E.coli) would be highest within close proximity to a

CSO. ArcGIS was used to visualize the impact of CSOs on E.coli concentrations in the Charles

River Basin during 2010. My results did not reveal an apparent relationship between the location of CSOs around the basin and E.coli concentrations. The largest amount of E.coli was

discovered in the widest part of the basin, which, could be caused by large amounts of run off

from a highly urban environment or various other possibilities not just overflow from CSOs. For

future research, 2010 E.coli concentration patterns in the Charles River should be compared to data from previous years.

Linking the land to sea: Watershed urbanization and eutrophication in Waquoit Bay, MA

Sarah Foster

Coastal eutrophication is a process by which estuarine ecosystems are enriched with nutrients

and the rate of the supply of organic matter is increased. The excessive amount of nutrients can cause several deleterious effects such as; harmful algae blooms, loss of eelgrass habitat,

low oxygen & fish kills and reduced water quality. Historical changes in land use increase rates

of land-derived nutrient loading to coastal water bodies. Waquoit Bay, an estuary on the south

shore of Cape Cod, MA exhibits ecological indicators of eutrophication however certain regions in the estuary appear more impacted than others. Using a GIS I investigated the source of this

spatial variability by analyzing land use over a 34 year time period in the sub-watersheds of

Waquoit Bay. I then compared the level of development to the eutrophic status of four sampling stations using a GIS. The results of this analysis show that the total area urbanized per sub-

watershed is highly variable. In the Eel Pond sub-watershed nearly 50% of the land is

developed compared to no developed area in the Sage Lot Pond sub-watershed. These results corresponded to the conditions of the receiving waters, where the most developed sub-

watersheds were linked to the regions in the bay of poor water quality and high eutrophic status.

Using Marine GIS to create a Marine Protected Area for Orcinus Orca in the Bering Sea Joanna Grunin

The purpose of this study was to create a marine protected area in Alaska to protect the species Orcinus orca (Orca Whale). This species has seen a drastic decrease in the number of

individuals, resulting in the placement of this species on the “Red List”, and giving them the title

of “Endangered”. Because of this, studying the distribution of orcas, as well as conserving and managing their critical habitats is essential to protecting these magnificent creatures.

ArcGIS was used to generate maps and contain data. The maps were then analyzed and are

seen throughout this paper.

To determine the location of the planned marine protected area (MPA), different attributes of the Alaskan coast as well as local orca whale sightings were observed and analyzed.

“The Vile Vortex”: Does the Bermuda Triangle Deserve its Reputation? Rachael Schweiker

Explanations of the disappearances of ships within the Bermuda Triangle range from sea

monsters, to time-space warps to parallel universes, to death rays from Atlantis. In this study, I assessed the real danger of Bermudan reefs and weather by plotting shipwrecks, bathymetry,

slope, hurricanes, and currents in ArcGIS. I compared Bermuda’s waters to those of

Massachusetts and found the Bermuda Triangle does in fact deserve its reputation, not because of any supernatural beliefs, but because of natural physical forces.

Marine Animal Populations Within Areas of High Vessel Traffic Jillian Hayward & Philip Souza

As shipping vessel traffic increases in our oceans, marine animals are at a greater risk of injury

and death from vessel strikes, entanglement, and noise pollution. Using protocols from the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium (NARWC) and vessel traffic data from AIS, it is possible

to find overlaps with shipping tracks and marine animal sightings in the Gulf of Maine. Densities

of vessel traffic calculated from AIS data was selected for areas of highest traffic and then mapped against animals seen in these areas. For each animal sighting, the species,

coordinates, and number of animals were recorded and then used to create a Sightings Per Unit

Effort (SPUE) calculation to represent more accurately the animal densities relative to amount of effort put in for each location. The SPUE values for humpback whales, turtles, seals, and sperm

whales were projected onto a density gradient of vessel traffic to find the correlations between

highest traffic and most animal sightings. The results showed that humpback whales and turtles

were most abundant in these areas and therefore at a greater risk of being affected by shipping. These maps can be used to suggest boundaries for vessels in order to reduce these

environmental risks in the future.

Red Tides: The Rise of Karenia brevis off the Southwest Shore of Florida

Karen Law

Red tides in the Gulf of Mexico are harmful algal blooms caused by the photosynthetic

dinoflagellate Karenia brevis. The first written record of a K. brevis bloom was in the 16th century

by a Spanish explorer, and many since have been recorded, suggesting nativity of K. brevis in

the Gulf of Mexico. This study will investigate possible changes in frequency, intensity, and seasonality of the blooms using archived cell count data (L-1) collected between 1954 and 2006.

The focus will be on the southwest coast of Florida where blooms are most frequent. K. brevis

produce brevetoxins that kill marine animals en masse, and can bioaccumulate in seagrass, shellfish, and fish (Flewelling et. al. 2005), which poses a great threat to manatees and high

trophic feeders. Nitrogen – the limiting factor of blooms – is supplied by upwelling on the slope

of the West Florida Shelf (Stumph et al. 1998). Low temperature during the winter can also curb a bloom. The frequency of non-normal, non-lethal blooms has increased from 12.1% to 33.2%,

and of lethal blooms 5.3% to 13.4%. Given the 5.5 fold population growth of Florida between

1954 and 2006, anthropogenic nutrient supplies have increased, possibly instigating more

blooms. Trends in intensity and seasonality of blooms were not significant, and were quite sporadic.

Loggerhead Turtle (Caretta caretta) Vulnerability to Fishing Practices in the South West Atlantic

Noelle Olsen

Loggerhead turtles, Caretta caretta, are listed as an endangered species, highly threatened by

fishing practices. The loggerhead is the largest of the hard-shelled turtles with a highly migratory lifestyle. Because they mostly feed on mollusks and crustaceans on the benthos, they are

particularly susceptible to demersal longline fishing. GIS data from fishing regulations

implemented by the South Atlantic Fishery Management Council (SAFMC) for snapper grouper

species and deep water corals off the coast of Florida, Georgia, and North and South Carolina is used to evaluate the extent of the SAFMC’s management. These data layers were visualized

with ArcGIS’s ArcMap in addition to multiple datasets of loggerhead satellite tag data from Duke

University’s OBIS-SEAMAP database. High loggerhead density areas exist outside of SAFMC’s regulated areas, and regulations must be extended to protect these turtles. Although the data

was excluded from the study, the endangered Green turtle, Chelonia mydas, and both the

critically endangered Kemp’s Ridley turtle, Lepidochelys kempii, and Leatherback turtle, Dermochelys coriacea, have habitat overlap with the Loggerhead satellite locations. Therefore,

more thorough demersal longline and bycatch fishing management could cascade and help to

recover the populations of all four turtle species.