Syed Raza Ali Mehdirm@wmu.se

Maritime Risk Assessment & the ISO Framework

OpenRisk Workshop SYKE, Helsinki, Finland | 13th June 2017

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Icebreaker

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Icebreaker

o Background:• MSc. Engineering Dynamics & Control• BEng. Aerospace Engineering• Flight Test Certifications

o Current Status:• MaRiSa Research Group @ WMU

Research Assistant 3rd Year PhD Student

• Technical Officer OpenRisk Project

o Research Areas:• Risk, Safety & Reliability Assessments• Risk-Based Marine Spatial Planning• Accident Investigation

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Research Work

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Dynamic vs Static Risk Assessment

o Static risk assessment:• Non-operational

Does not focus on one operation, but covers many ship movements in an area

Focuses on a wide time period • Proactive – generally conducted during the

planning phase • Probabilistic• More ‘controllable’ parameters that can be

changed• Low certainty about information• High availability of time & resources• Outcomes directly effect dynamic risk

assessment conducted during an operation

o Dynamic risk assessment:• Operational

Generally focuses on one single operation Focuses on a specific time period during the

operational phase of a system• Reactive – usually conducted during an on-

going operation • More deterministic than probabilistic

Either the consequences of an event are known and/or the probability of the event is 1 or 0

• Less ‘controllable’ parameters The few ‘controllable’ operational parameters

(e.g. ship speed, rudder angle) may be used to quantify the risk in a scenario

• High level of certainty• Low availability of time & resources

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Static Risk Assessment

o Sophisticated NRA frameworks/models already exist (Mehdi & Schröder-Hinrichs 2016)

• Significant literature on contact, collision, grounding models• E.g. of previous work includes NRA models for bridges, quays, oil platforms

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Static Risk Assessment

o Consequence model selection was partially based on literature review & surveys• Included a comprehensive review of 50+ contemporary damage assessment models• Presented at Intl. Conference on Ships & Offshore Structures (ICSOS) 2016

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Static Risk Assessment

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Dynamic Risk Assessment

o Why: lack of communication between operational & non-operational maritime users

• Survey of 122 seafarers shows 104 are unaware of any NRA studies around OREIs

• Results of a typical NRA often ‘meaningless’ for seafarers Exception: if a risk-control option is integrated as a result of the NRA

that influences maritime operations

o What: dynamic risk model that can be integrated as a decision support system

• Based on ship manoeuvrability & hydrodynamics Relates the probability of an accident to the safe manoeuvring area

available to a ship• Initially developed for maritime collision avoidance• Developed from the principles for ACAS/TCAS used in the

aviation industry

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Dynamic Risk Assessment

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Dynamic Risk Decision Support System: Future Work

o Several potential future developments:

• Incorporate drift envelope calculations

• Integration with AIS data (variant already been demonstrated successfully by Nakano & Hasagawa in 2012)

• Potential integration of consequence assessment based on ship speed & rudder angle at time of collision, contact or grounding

• Integration with KPIs?

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Improving Input Data for Risk Assessment Processes

o MaRiSa Simulator Lab:• DNV-GL certified, multiple simulators:

Desktop ship handling– Basic navigational equipment as

specified by SOLAS– Internal Communication – e.g. – engine

room to bridge– External Communication – e.g. – VTS

Safety & Security Training– Virtual-reality– Simulates on-board accidents

HECSALV– Damage Stability simulator

Manoeuvring station– Predictive ship manoeuvres

Engine room simulator

• SenseFloor to track movement on bridge

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Improving Input Data for Risk Assessment Processes

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In the Context of ISO 31000 & 31010

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Risk Assessment/Management

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Tips from ISO 31000/31010

Thank You!