Market Outlook, 14-06-2013

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  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 14-06-2013

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    www.angelbroking.com

    Market OutlookJune 14, 2013

    Dealers Diary

    Indian markets are expected to open in green today, tracking positive opening

    trades in the SGX Nifty and most of the Asian indices. Asian markets are trading

    higher, as U.S. economic data beat estimates and on bets that the Federal

    Reserve will keep its record stimulus.

    US markets moved mostly higher over the course of the trading day on Thursday,

    offsetting the weakness seen over the past few trading sessions, on the back of

    better than expected US retail sales and jobless data. Meanwhile, the

    European markets trimmed their early losses in the afternoon following the release

    of upbeat US economic data.

    Back home, Indian markets fell sharply on Thursday, mirroring weak Asian and

    European cues as investors become anxious about central banks' stimulus policies.

    Weak global cues dampened the investor enthusiasm over Fitch's move to upgrade

    India's sovereign ratings outlook. On Friday, Investors will lookout for another

    batch of U.S. economic data releases and India WPI Inflation data for May 2013.

    Markets Today

    The trend deciding level for the day is 18,836 / 5,704 levels. If NIFTY trades above

    this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

    up to 18,906 18,984 / 5,725 5,751 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

    18,836 / 5,704 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

    18,757 18,687 / 5,678 5,657 levels.

    Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2SENSEX 18,687 18,757 18,836 18,906 18,984NIFTY 5,657 5,678 5,704 5,725 5,751

    News Analysis IIP growth revised slightly upwards after erroneous reporting Infosys, Wipro announce wage hike JLR registers strong growth in retail sales in May 2013

    Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

    Net Inflows (June 12, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTDFII 2,523 3,567 (1,044) (408) 81,428

    MFs 535 513 22 (635) (12,711)

    FII Derivatives (June 13, 2013)` cr Purch Sales Net Open InterestIndex Futures 1,566 2,050 (484) 10,086

    Stock Futures 1,559 1,555 4 28,581

    Gainers / LosersGainers Losers

    Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)Jet Air India 433 6.2 Apollo Tyres 69 (25.4)

    Hindalco Inds 97 4.8 Sun TV Network 356 (10.9)

    Titan Inds 214 4.3 MMTC 190 (10.0)

    Bharti Airtel 288 3.5 JSW ENERGY 47 (6.2)

    United Brew-$ 670 3.2 Indiabulls Real Est 66 (5.8)

    Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)BSE Sensex (1.1) (214) 18,827

    Nifty (1.1) (61) 5,699

    MID CAP (1.4) (85) 6,108

    SMALL CAP (1.1) (61) 5,714

    BSE HC (1.8) (159) 8,627

    BSE PSU (1.7) (108) 6,240

    BANKEX (1.2) (160) 13,359

    AUTO (2.3) (247) 10,385

    METAL (1.1) (90) 7,747

    OIL & GAS (0.7) (58) 8,352

    BSE IT (1.7) (101) 5,969

    Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)Dow Jones 1.2 181 15,176NASDAQ 1.3 45 3,445

    FTSE 0.1 5 6,305

    Nikkei (6.4) (844) 12,445

    Hang Sang (2.2) (468) 20,887

    Straits Times (0.7) (23) 3,131

    Shanghai Com (2.7) (61) 2,148

    Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)INFY (0.3) (0.1) $41.7

    WIT (0.4) (0.0) $7.4IBN 0.1 0.1 $40.6

    HDB 1.8 0.7 $37.6

    Advances / Declines BSE NSEAdvances 735 349

    Declines 1,586 1,010

    Unchanged 138 84

    Volumes (` cr)BSE 1,841

    NSE 9,999

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    www.angelbroking.com

    Market OutlookJune 14, 2013

    IIP growth revised slightly upwards after erroneous reporting

    As per the Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial

    growth in April 2013 came in at 2.0%. But due to erroneous reporting, growth has

    been revised upwards by the Central Statistical Office (twice in a single day) to

    2.3%. The revision comes from an error in the production data for the electricity

    sector which had previously reported marginal growth of 0.7%. The revised

    electricity production now stands at 4.2% similar to the previous years growth

    figure of 4.6%. Manufacturing and Mining continue to remain at 2.8% and -3%

    respectively.

    Infosys, Wipro announce wage hike

    Infosys, yesterday, announced salary increments for its employees for FY2014.

    Wage hike will be 8% on an average for employees based in India and 3% for

    employees who are based in other geographies. The increments will be effective

    from July 1, 2013. The global sales force will see an average increase of 8% and

    will be effective May 1, 2013. According to the company, wage hikes were

    inevitable due to competitive pressures. The company said that it has to increase its

    employee compensation more rapidly than in the past to remain competitive with

    other employers, or seek to recruit in other low labor cost regions to keep wage

    costs low. Infosys, which has been going through a tough phase, has been

    reporting lower growth than peers and there was speculation that it might delay

    hikes this year as well. Last year, salary increases were given only in October,

    when the company came under pressure from increments offered by peers. This isa positive announcement b the company.

    Meanwhile, Wipro also has announced annual wage hike for its employees. The

    normal wage hike cycle of Wipro falls in June so this is on the expected lines. The

    wage hike is in Wipro is 6-8% for offshore employees and 2-3% for onsite

    employees. We maintain our Neutral rating on Infosys and Accumulate rating on

    Wipro with a target price of `485.

    JLR registers strong growth in retail sales in May 2013

    Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) registered a strong retail volume growth of 12.3% yoy

    (13.9% mom) to 32,477 units in May 2013, which was better-than-expected,

    driven by continued momentum in the recently launched models. Geographically,

    JLR volumes grew in every major region with Asia Pacific, Europe, China and

    North America registering growth of 41%, 16%, 11% and 10% yoy respectively.

    Total volumes ex. Evoque too registered a robust growth of 14.6% yoy (12.3%

    mom) driven by the strong growth in the newly launched Jaguar models.

    Jaguar sales grew on the back of the growth in the XF model (32.3% yoy and

    17.7% mom) led by the introduction of the Sportbrake, AWD and smaller engine

    variants.Jaguar sales were up in all the major markets with China, Asia Pacific,

    North America and Europe witnessing an impressive growth of 98%, 37%, 34%

    and 20% yoy respectively.

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    Market OutlookJune 14, 2013

    Land Rover sales grew at a healthy rate of 8% yoy (10.6% mom) to 26,303 units

    led by sustained growth in Freelander, Evoque and continuous ramp-up in New

    Range Rover. Land Rover witnessed strong growth in Asia Pacific and Europe with

    volumes growing by 42% and 15% yoy respectively. However, volumes in UK and

    China region remained flat during the month.

    We retain our positive view on JLR and expect an ~13% volume CAGR over

    FY2013-15E, driven by continued momentum in the luxury vehicle market,

    coupled with the strong product launches that are lined up in FY2014 (expected to

    launch 8 new refreshes/models in FY2014) and the success of the model launched

    in 4QFY2013. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a sum-of-the-parts(SOTP) target price of `347.

    Economic and Political News

    FDI, FII reforms on the anvil: FM Sebi board to meet on June 25 to mull Chandrasekhar panel report Govt. rules out further duty hike on gold imports

    Corporate News

    Unilever cleared to increase Hindustan stake from June 21 Wipro receives fresh tax demand of `816 crore FIPB to take up Jet-Etihad FDI proposals today Ranbaxy eyes US drug launches with sales exclusivity GMR's plan to reverse-list Indonesian asset hits hurdle

    Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Global economic events release calendar

    Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

    Last Reported Estimated

    June 14, 2013 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change May 4.89 4.87

    2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % May F 1.20 1.40

    6:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change May (0.70) 0.10

    6:45PM US Industrial Production % May (0.53) 0.20

    June 17, 2013 11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 17 7.25 7.25

    11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 17 4.00 4.00

    11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 17 6.25 6.25

    June 18, 2013 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change May 2.40 --

    6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands May 853.00 950.00

    6:00PM US Building permits Thousands May 1,005.00 988.00

    6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change May (0.40) 0.20

    June 19, 2013 11:30PM US FOMC rate decision % Jun 19 0.25 0.25

    June 20, 2013 1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jun A 49.40 --

    1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Jun A 49.70 --

    7:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Jun A (21.90) --

    7:30PM US Existing home sales Million May 4.97 5.00

    June 25, 2013 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Jun 76.20 --

    7:30PM US New home sales Thousands May 454.00 --

    June 26, 2013 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q T 2.40 --

    June 27, 2013 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jun 21.00 --

    2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q F 0.60 --

    July 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 50.80 --

    2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jun 51.30 --

    July 4, 2013 4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jul 4 0.50 0.505:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jul 4 0.50 --

    July 5, 2013 6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jun 175.00 --

    6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Jun 7.60 --

    July 9, 2013 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jun 2.10 --

    July 10, 2013 4:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Jun 1.00 --

    July 15, 2013 7:30AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun 9.20 --

    7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q 7.70 --

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    June 14, 2013

    Market Outlook

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    Market OutlookJune 14, 2013

    www.angelbroking.com

    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1:Q uarterly G D P trends

    Source: CSO, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:IIP trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3:M onthly WPI inflation trends

    Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

    Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 ind icates expansion

    Exhibit 5:Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

    Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Key policy rates

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

    9.3

    7.7

    11.4

    9.5

    8.69.2

    9.9

    7.5

    6.56.0

    5.1 5.4 5.24.7 4.8

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    10.0

    11.0

    12.0

    2QFY10

    3QFY10

    4QFY10

    1QFY11

    2QFY11

    3QFY11

    4QFY11

    1QFY12

    2QFY12

    3QFY12

    4QFY12

    1QFY13

    2QFY13

    3QFY13

    4QFY13

    (%)

    2.5

    (2.0)

    (0.1)

    2.0

    (0.7)

    8.4

    (1.0) (0.6)

    2.5

    0.5

    3.4

    2.0

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2.0

    4.0

    6.0

    8.0

    10.0

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    (%)

    7.6 7.58.0 8.1

    7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3

    6.0

    4.9

    0.0

    1.0

    2.0

    3.0

    4.0

    5.0

    6.0

    7.0

    8.0

    9.0

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    (%)

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    Nov-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    May-1

    3

    Mfg. PMI Services PMI

    (15.0)

    0.0

    15.0

    May-1

    2

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

    7.25

    6.25

    4.003.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    Jun-1

    2

    Jul-12

    Aug-1

    2

    Sep-1

    2

    Oc-1

    2

    No-1

    2

    Dec-1

    2

    Jan-1

    3

    Feb

    -13

    Mar-13

    Apr-13

    Ma-1

    3

    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR(%)

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 139 - 2,706 1,657 1,906 14.1 14.1 7.7 8.9 18.1 15.6 3.8 3.2 22.2 21.9 1.6 1.3

    United Phosphorus Buy 140 232 6,203 10,298 11,310 16.5 16.5 20.5 23.2 6.8 6.0 1.1 1.0 18.0 17.4 0.6 0.5

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Buy 247 285 4,211 3,418 3,892 14.5 14.5 18.5 20.4 13.3 12.1 3.2 2.6 26.6 23.8 1.3 1.0

    Apollo Tyres Buy 69 104 3,458 13,852 15,487 11.4 11.5 12.8 14.9 5.3 4.6 0.9 0.7 17.5 17.3 0.4 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 21 27 5,707 14,038 16,442 7.6 8.7 1.1 2.2 20.5 9.6 1.8 1.6 6.2 12.5 0.5 0.4

    Automotive Axle# Neutral 234 - 353 834 965 9.3 10.6 17.3 27.1 13.5 8.6 1.3 1.2 9.5 14.0 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Buy 1,708 2,056 49,428 22,684 25,908 18.0 18.5 117.3 137.1 14.6 12.5 5.2 4.2 39.9 37.2 1.8 1.5

    Bharat Forge Neutral 222 - 5,176 6,198 6,793 14.6 14.9 14.5 17.3 15.3 12.9 2.0 1.8 13.6 14.7 0.9 0.8

    Bosch India* Neutral 8,981 - 28,199 9,821 11,394 17.0 17.3 373.5 438.7 24.0 20.5 4.3 3.7 18.0 17.9 2.6 2.2

    CEAT Buy 105 170 361 5,325 5,974 8.4 8.3 40.8 48.5 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.4 17.3 17.6 0.2 0.2

    Exide Industries Buy 126 150 10,672 7,053 8,061 14.2 14.5 7.8 9.1 16.0 13.8 2.7 2.4 18.1 18.2 1.2 1.0

    FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,441 - 2,395 1,525 1,742 14.5 15.7 88.4 109.5 16.3 13.2 2.4 2.0 15.5 16.5 1.4 1.2

    Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,609 1,819 32,127 25,274 27,658 14.1 13.7 110.2 139.9 14.6 11.5 5.3 4.2 39.8 40.7 1.1 0.9

    JK Tyre Buy 107 154 441 7,972 8,754 7.1 7.1 37.5 44.0 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.4 16.4 16.6 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 923 1,090 5 6,664 45,254 51,197 11.4 11.7 61.2 70.2 15.1 13.1 3.2 2.7 22.7 21.9 1.0 0.8

    Maruti Buy 1,456 1,847 43,968 48,455 55,723 11.2 10.9 107.8 123.2 13.5 11.8 2.0 1.8 16.2 16.0 0.7 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Accumulate 198 222 11,616 28,442 31,493 7.5 7.8 12.5 14.8 15.8 13.4 3.9 3.1 27.5 25.8 0.6 0.5

    Subros Buy 22 30 131 1,479 1,685 10.0 9.9 5.5 7.5 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.4 11.1 13.7 0.4 0.3

    Tata Motors Buy 283 347 75,768 215,016 237,404 13.3 13.6 36.2 41.5 7.8 6.8 1.7 1.4 24.6 23.2 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Buy 35 41 1,656 7,715 8,584 6.0 6.1 5.0 5.8 7.0 6.0 1.2 1.0 18.1 18.5 0.2 0.1

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 592 461 12,553 8,073 9,052 5.5 6.9 11.5 16.9 51.4 35.0 4.7 4.5 9.3 13.1 1.5 1.3BGR Energy Neutral 133 - 963 4,114 4,886 11.4 10.7 24.9 28.0 5.4 4.8 0.7 0.7 25.2 22.6 0.5 0.5

    BHEL Neutral 175 - 42,833 44,054 39,326 16.8 15.1 20.6 16.1 8.5 10.9 1.9 1.7 23.5 16.1 0.9 0.9

    Blue Star Buy 160 230 1,434 2,896 3,087 5.6 6.2 9.3 11.7 17.1 13.6 2.8 2.4 17.6 19.2 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Buy 85 117 5,459 13,446 15,272 6.7 7.6 6.6 8.9 12.8 9.6 1.4 1.3 11.4 14.0 0.5 0.5

    Jyoti Structures Neutral 24 - 195 3,360 3,597 9.7 9.8 7.3 10.2 3.2 2.3 0.7 0.6 8.8 11.4 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 37 63 938 7,709 8,399 6.7 7.2 6.1 8.5 6.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 20.2 23.0 0.3 0.3

    Thermax Neutral 595 - 7,087 5,780 6,430 9.5 9.6 29.8 33.0 20.0 18.0 3.4 2.9 17.9 17.4 1.0 0.9

    Cement

    ACC Accumulate 1,205 1,361 22,615 11,979 13,254 19.7 21.3 77.1 91.4 15.6 13.2 2.8 2.5 18.7 20.0 1.6 1.4

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    Stock Watch

    June 14, 2013

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Cement

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 175 - 27,016 10,232 11,762 23.5 24.5 10.3 12.2 17.0 14.4 2.8 2.6 17.2 18.6 2.1 1.7

    India Cements Neutral 63 - 1,948 4,929 5,434 17.4 17.1 8.9 10.9 7.1 5.8 0.5 0.5 7.7 9.1 0.7 0.6

    J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 106 143 1,241 2,247 2,742 21.0 23.1 17.8 21.8 5.9 4.8 0.9 0.7 15.5 16.4 0.5 0.9

    Madras Cements Neutral 235 - 5,590 4,234 4,788 23.9 24.0 18.5 22.8 12.7 10.3 2.0 1.7 17.2 18.2 1.7 1.4

    Shree Cement^ Neutral 4,615 - 16,076 6,540 7,452 27.4 26.6 319.7 369.9 14.4 12.5 3.6 2.9 27.5 25.4 1.8 1.4

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,822 - 49,964 21,947 25,049 23.8 23.8 106.1 119.8 17.2 15.2 2.8 2.5 17.7 17.3 2.4 2.0

    ConstructionAshoka Buildcon Buy 189 255 996 1,928 2,234 21.0 21.5 18.0 22.2 10.5 8.5 0.9 0.8 10.2 10.1 1.9 1.9

    Consolidated Co Neutral 10 - 185 2,281 2,492 5.9 6.9 0.7 2.0 14.7 5.0 0.3 0.3 2.3 6.5 0.4 0.3

    IRB Infra Buy 114 157 3,787 3,997 4,312 45.5 46.4 15.7 16.6 7.3 6.9 1.1 0.9 15.2 14.5 3.4 3.6

    ITNL Buy 175 230 3,407 7,444 8,041 27.4 28.9 29.8 32.1 5.9 5.5 0.8 0.7 14.9 14.2 2.6 2.6

    IVRCL Infra Buy 16 29 480 5,673 5,892 8.1 8.4 1.4 1.8 10.9 8.5 0.2 0.2 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.5

    Jaiprakash Asso. Buy 61 90 13,481 14,850 15,631 24.9 25.1 2.5 2.9 24.0 21.3 1.0 0.9 4.2 4.7 2.7 2.7

    Larsen & Toubro Buy 1,393 1,761 85,837 68,946 78,040 10.5 10.5 77.9 88.3 17.9 15.8 2.6 2.3 15.5 15.6 1.4 1.2

    Nagarjuna Const. Buy 29 42 731 6,167 6,945 8.0 8.2 2.7 3.6 10.7 7.8 0.3 0.3 2.7 3.6 0.5 0.5

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 41 - 1,352 12,954 14,740 9.9 9.9 0.5 0.9 80.2 43.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.5

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 101 139 1,525 2,462 2,731 10.6 10.6 5.9 6.7 17.2 15.2 1.7 1.5 10.2 10.5 0.9 0.8

    Simplex Infra Buy 91 131 452 6,308 7,033 9.5 9.6 11.9 18.7 7.7 4.9 0.3 0.3 4.5 6.7 0.5 0.5

    Unity Infra Buy 27 41 198 2,146 2,339 13.7 13.8 11.0 11.5 2.4 2.3 0.2 0.2 9.3 9.0 0.6 0.6

    Financials

    Allahabad Bank Buy 110 144 5,500 6,876 7,545 2.6 2.5 28.2 30.9 3.9 3.6 0.6 0.5 12.8 12.7 - -

    Andhra Bank Neutral 85 - 4,745 5,254 5,900 2.8 2.8 21.2 22.9 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.3 13.0 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,269 1,853 59,468 19,055 22,710 3.3 3.2 130.7 152.3 9.7 8.3 1.6 1.4 17.2 17.6 - -Bank of Baroda Buy 625 851 26,310 16,365 18,781 2.2 2.3 121.3 142.5 5.2 4.4 0.8 0.7 15.1 15.7 - -

    Bank of India Buy 281 350 16,721 14,482 16,383 2.3 2.3 58.1 68.1 4.8 4.1 0.7 0.6 14.4 15.0 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Buy 52 64 3,460 4,392 4,743 3.1 3.0 12.6 13.7 4.1 3.8 0.7 0.6 16.8 16.0 - -

    Canara Bank Buy 381 481 16,874 11,928 13,467 2.1 2.2 74.8 86.0 5.1 4.4 0.7 0.6 13.7 14.2 - -

    Central Bank Accumulate 63 69 6,576 8,249 9,211 2.4 2.5 14.9 18.2 4.2 3.5 0.6 0.5 12.5 13.8 - -

    Corporation Bank Buy 372 495 5,695 5,558 6,121 2.0 2.0 98.4 107.7 3.8 3.5 0.6 0.5 14.9 14.5 - -

    Dena Bank Buy 83 97 2,893 3,187 3,582 2.3 2.4 23.8 25.5 3.5 3.2 0.5 0.5 15.9 15.1 - -

    Federal Bank Accumulate 422 459 7,216 2,873 3,413 3.0 3.1 52.7 62.0 8.0 6.8 1.0 0.9 13.4 14.2 - -

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    June 14, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 14-06-2013

    8/13

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Financials

    HDFC Accumulate 813 933 125,919 8,573 10,142 3.6 3.6 37.0 43.6 22.0 18.6 4.5 4.0 30.0 30.3 - -

    HDFC Bank Accumulate 656 722 156,389 27,682 33,916 4.6 4.6 35.3 42.7 18.6 15.4 3.7 3.1 21.3 21.8 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 1,068 1,503 123,236 25,705 30,330 3.1 3.2 83.9 96.3 12.7 11.1 1.7 1.5 15.2 15.7 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 75 93 10,022 9,477 10,678 2.0 2.1 19.6 22.6 3.9 3.3 0.5 0.4 12.8 13.4 - -

    Indian Bank Buy 128 185 5,520 6,185 6,978 3.0 3.0 37.0 42.2 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.5 14.8 15.1 - -

    IOB Buy 57 66 5,290 8,142 8,956 2.5 2.5 16.5 20.7 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.4 11.8 13.4 - -

    J & K Bank Neutral 1,218 - 5,904 3,074 3,140 3.5 3.2 224.7 201.5 5.4 6.0 1.0 0.9 20.6 16.1 - -LIC Housing Finance Buy 250 298 12,622 2,113 2,525 2.3 2.3 25.4 29.2 9.9 8.6 1.7 1.5 18.4 18.3 - -

    Oriental Bank Buy 229 285 6,674 6,835 7,588 2.6 2.6 56.5 63.8 4.1 3.6 0.5 0.5 13.1 13.4 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 721 994 25,487 20,876 23,929 3.3 3.4 151.7 177.0 4.8 4.1 0.8 0.7 16.1 16.5 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 3,277 1,839 2,091 2.9 2.8 4.2 4.5 5.8 5.4 1.0 0.9 18.2 17.0 - -

    St Bk of India Buy 2,020 2,637 138,161 67,243 76,612 3.1 3.0 242.4 284.8 8.3 7.1 1.3 1.1 16.3 16.8 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 127 142 7,630 7,238 8,249 2.7 2.6 27.1 30.4 4.7 4.2 0.7 0.6 16.1 15.9 - -

    UCO Bank Neutral 76 - 5,720 6,250 6,738 2.6 2.5 12.1 14.7 6.3 5.2 1.0 0.8 11.8 13.0 - -

    Union Bank Buy 208 260 12,398 11,229 12,794 2.6 2.6 40.7 48.2 5.1 4.3 0.7 0.6 14.6 15.4 - -

    United Bank Buy 50 65 1,859 3,443 3,998 2.4 2.6 15.1 20.4 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 12.1 14.8 - -

    Vijaya Bank Neutral 50 - 2,478 2,730 3,059 1.9 2.0 10.2 11.3 4.9 4.4 0.6 0.5 11.8 12.0 - -

    Yes Bank Accumulate 456 508 16,395 4,390 5,411 2.8 2.8 41.6 47.9 11.0 9.5 2.3 1.9 23.2 22.1 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 4,442 - 42,606 12,332 14,524 16.5 16.3 141.6 162.7 31.4 27.3 9.9 7.9 35.4 32.2 3.3 2.8

    Britannia Neutral 674 - 8,066 6,417 7,502 6.1 6.3 23.2 27.9 29.1 24.2 10.0 7.9 38.3 36.4 1.2 1.0

    Colgate Neutral 1,310 - 17,821 3,588 4,130 20.5 20.9 44.2 51.8 29.7 25.3 28.9 21.1 108.6 96.2 4.8 4.1

    Dabur India Neutral 150 - 26,222 7,183 8,340 16.8 16.8 5.4 6.3 28.0 23.9 10.9 8.5 41.5 40.1 3.6 3.1

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,683 - 23,898 3,617 4,259 16.1 16.4 122.2 148.7 46.5 38.2 14.5 11.6 34.1 33.7 6.1 5.1

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 775 - 26,380 7,801 9,017 16.2 15.9 25.1 29.7 30.8 26.1 6.7 5.5 24.9 24.2 3.5 3.0

    HUL Neutral 595 - 128,613 29,167 33,164 13.6 13.7 17.1 18.4 34.8 32.3 33.5 24.2 113.4 87.0 4.3 3.7

    ITC Neutral 327 - 258,232 34,294 39,991 36.8 37.0 11.3 13.3 29.0 24.5 9.6 7.7 36.1 34.9 7.2 6.1

    Marico Neutral 222 - 14,318 5,273 6,044 14.8 14.9 7.3 8.7 30.6 25.6 6.0 4.9 21.4 21.0 2.7 2.3

    Nestle* Neutral 5,111 - 49,275 9,447 10,968 22.1 22.3 127.5 154.1 40.1 33.2 20.0 14.5 57.7 50.7 5.2 4.4

    Tata Global Neutral 139 - 8,602 8,069 8,957 9.8 9.7 7.8 8.6 17.8 16.2 2.1 2.0 9.5 9.7 1.0 0.9

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    June 14, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 14-06-2013

    9/13

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    IT

    HCL Tech^ Accumulate 755 863 52,613 28,633 32,216 21.5 20.7 57.3 61.7 13.2 12.2 3.1 2.6 24.0 21.5 1.7 1.4

    Hexaware* Buy 79 96 2,358 2,091 2,289 19.0 18.8 10.6 11.3 7.4 7.0 1.7 1.5 22.8 21.7 1.0 0.8

    Infosys Neutral 2,379 - 136,617 43,338 47,244 27.5 27.7 169.4 182.6 14.1 13.0 2.9 2.5 20.8 19.3 2.5 2.2

    Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 170 185 1,897 1,956 2,174 17.9 17.7 20.4 21.9 8.3 7.8 1.2 1.1 14.7 13.7 0.6 0.5

    KPIT Cummins Buy 111 135 2,141 2,513 2,819 16.1 15.5 12.6 14.0 8.8 7.9 1.5 1.3 17.9 16.6 0.8 0.6

    Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 112 126 13,157 8,278 9,062 20.3 20.1 10.5 11.4 10.6 9.8 2.5 2.0 23.1 20.0 1.2 1.0

    Mindtree Accumulate 801 920 3,326 2,599 2,871 19.4 19.2 85.2 92.3 9.4 8.7 2.0 1.6 21.4 18.9 1.0 0.8Mphasis& Neutral 390 - 8,192 6,096 6,646 17.6 17.4 38.1 41.6 10.2 9.4 1.5 1.3 14.2 13.7 0.9 0.7

    NIIT Buy 21 30 347 1,144 1,267 9.0 9.1 4.3 5.4 4.9 3.9 0.5 0.5 10.3 12.0 0.1 -

    Persistent Buy 501 593 2,006 1,445 1,617 25.2 25.0 55.3 59.3 9.1 8.5 1.7 1.4 18.2 16.5 1.0 0.7

    TCS Accumulate 1,444 1,585 282,672 71,833 81,893 28.4 28.0 78.5 88.0 18.4 16.4 5.6 4.6 30.2 27.9 3.7 3.2

    Tech Mahindra Buy 968 1,170 12,434 7,779 8,398 19.7 19.3 107.4 117.8 9.0 8.2 1.9 1.6 21.2 19.0 1.6 1.4

    Wipro Accumulate 340 385 83,775 40,173 43,697 20.4 20.6 26.2 28.5 13.0 11.9 2.6 2.2 19.7 18.4 1.6 1.3

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 231 290 4,244 1,750 1,925 25.1 26.6 14.2 16.8 16.3 13.8 3.5 3.0 23.4 23.4 2.3 2.1

    HT Media Buy 100 117 2,351 2,205 2,380 15.1 15.6 8.3 9.1 12.1 11.0 1.3 1.2 11.5 11.4 0.7 0.6

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 91 119 3,024 1,664 1,825 20.9 23.0 6.4 7.8 14.2 11.7 2.9 2.6 21.0 23.1 1.9 1.7

    PVR Neutral 322 - 1,276 1,359 1,540 17.3 17.4 17.2 21.6 18.7 15.0 1.9 1.7 10.3 12.0 1.4 1.2

    Sun TV Network Neutral 356 - 14,024 2,287 2,551 69.7 70.5 20.0 23.3 17.8 15.3 4.4 3.9 26.4 27.3 5.8 5.1

    Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Neutral 462 - 10,470 13,794 17,088 30.9 33.5 49.3 66.6 9.4 6.9 1.0 0.9 11.3 13.5 2.4 1.9

    Coal India Buy 299 345 188,891 72,174 76,311 33.3 28.4 28.4 30.9 10.5 9.7 2.9 2.5 37.6 36.2 1.8 1.6

    Electrosteel Castings Buy 14 24 441 1,976 2,017 11.8 12.7 1.3 2.6 10.7 5.2 0.1 0.1 2.6 5.2 0.5 0.1GMDC Buy 122 193 3,883 1,920 2,239 53.2 52.9 21.6 25.0 5.7 4.9 1.3 1.1 25.1 23.8 1.5 1.1

    Hind. Zinc Buy 108 145 45,528 12,358 13,659 51.4 51.6 16.0 17.6 6.7 6.1 1.2 1.1 19.4 18.4 1.4 0.9

    Hindalco Neutral 97 - 18,543 89,352 93,672 8.8 9.2 13.4 15.0 7.2 6.5 0.5 0.5 7.3 7.6 0.6 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 671 - 14,975 39,973 40,926 17.2 17.0 71.9 82.8 9.3 8.1 0.8 0.7 9.0 9.6 0.7 0.6

    MOIL Buy 204 248 3,430 1,010 1,046 46.5 47.6 26.8 28.8 7.6 7.1 1.1 1.0 15.4 14.7 1.0 0.7

    Monnet Ispat Buy 122 193 780 2,326 2,709 21.4 23.1 33.3 43.1 3.7 2.8 0.3 0.3 8.3 9.9 1.4 1.0

    Nalco Neutral 30 - 7,629 7,656 7,988 13.1 13.5 2.6 2.6 11.6 11.3 0.6 0.6 5.5 5.5 0.4 0.5

    NMDC Buy 107 156 42,601 10,461 11,892 71.6 72.6 16.3 17.6 6.6 6.1 1.4 1.2 22.1 21.4 2.3 2.0

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    June 14, 2013

  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 14-06-2013

    10/13

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Metals & Mining

    SAIL Neutral 53 - 22,075 44,060 54,786 9.4 11.5 5.2 7.2 10.2 7.5 0.5 0.5 5.2 6.8 0.8 0.6

    Sesa Goa Buy 140 166 12,172 3,742 4,426 32.9 32.8 30.0 29.8 4.7 4.7 0.6 0.6 14.3 12.5 4.0 3.3

    Sterlite Inds Buy 82 100 27,389 44,462 45,568 23.2 24.7 18.1 20.2 4.5 4.0 0.5 0.4 11.3 11.4 0.6 0.5

    Tata Steel Buy 266 378 25,849 140,917 151,537 9.7 10.8 30.9 47.6 8.6 5.6 0.8 0.7 9.6 13.4 0.6 0.5

    Sarda Buy 101 153 363 1,494 1,568 19.1 20.3 31.3 36.5 3.2 2.8 0.4 0.3 11.8 12.4 0.6 0.5

    Prakash Industries Buy 30 45 405 2,615 2,776 12.1 12.0 9.8 10.4 3.1 2.9 0.2 0.2 6.5 6.5 0.4 0.4

    Godawari Power andIspat Buy 76 102 249 2,344 2,509 14.9 15.4 38.7 47.0 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.2 12.3 12.9 0.5 0.4

    Oil & Gas

    Cairn India Buy 290 345 55,398 16,482 16,228 69.4 53.3 53.3 49.6 5.4 5.9 0.8 0.8 16.5 13.6 2.0 1.7

    GAIL Neutral 297 - 37,661 52,102 52,876 15.7 16.1 34.1 35.7 8.7 8.3 1.4 1.2 16.4 15.3 0.3 0.2

    ONGC Buy 309 372 264,493 170,063 193,024 36.3 36.9 34.7 38.3 8.9 8.1 1.5 1.4 18.3 17.9 1.3 1.0

    Reliance Industries Neutral 789 - 254,842 380,031 407,721 9.9 69.3 69.3 78.0 11.4 10.1 1.1 1.0 11.5 11.7 0.6 0.6

    Gujarat Gas* Neutral 208 - 2,670 3,707 3,850 11.7 12.4 23.7 25.7 8.8 8.1 2.5 2.1 29.6 28.2 0.6 0.5

    Indraprastha Gas Neutral 279 - 3,905 3,700 4,218 23.4 22.8 26.7 30.4 10.5 9.2 2.2 1.8 22.7 21.8 1.1 0.9

    Petronet LNG Buy 132 167 9,870 40,356 40,872 5.8 6.4 15.0 16.7 8.8 7.9 1.8 1.6 23.0 21.5 0.3 0.3

    Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

    Neutral 53 - 3,005 1,171 1,287 91.9 91.9 10.1 11.3 5.3 4.7 0.9 0.7 17.3 16.8 - -

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Accumulate 129 139 2,427 1,736 2,008 17.1 18.9 10.7 13.9 12.0 9.3 3.8 2.8 35.0 34.7 1.5 1.2

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 166 271 4,828 6,641 7,637 15.9 15.9 17.3 20.6 9.6 8.1 1.5 1.3 19.5 18.9 1.2 1.0

    Aventis* Neutral 2,470 - 5,688 1,682 1,917 16.6 16.6 92.4 99.1 26.7 24.9 3.8 3.8 15.7 14.8 3.0 2.5

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 741 929 15,168 7,280 8,640 15.5 15.7 38.3 46.5 19.3 15.9 4.2 3.4 23.5 23.5 2.4 2.0

    Cipla Buy 379 477 30,419 9,274 10,796 23.1 23.1 21.0 23.8 18.0 15.9 2.9 2.5 17.2 16.8 3.0 2.5Dr Reddy's Buy 2,157 2,535 36,613 13,377 15,350 20.4 20.1 112.3 126.8 19.2 17.0 4.1 3.4 23.5 21.8 2.8 2.4

    Dishman Pharma Buy 60 168 480 1,394 1,534 22.5 22.4 15.0 16.8 4.0 3.5 0.4 0.4 11.0 11.2 1.0 0.8

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,469 - 20,912 2,854 3,145 28.6 28.6 76.6 83.3 32.2 29.6 9.7 8.8 31.1 31.0 6.5 5.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 64 78 594 760 922 15.3 15.3 6.1 7.8 10.6 8.3 1.3 1.1 12.9 14.7 1.0 0.8

    Ipca labs Neutral 641 - 8,084 3,243 3,826 20.5 21.5 36.0 44.4 17.8 14.4 4.2 3.3 26.0 25.4 2.6 2.2

    Lupin Buy 760 877 34,026 11,641 13,933 21.3 21.3 34.8 41.8 21.8 18.2 5.1 4.0 26.2 24.8 3.0 2.4

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 374 - 15,818 11,400 12,060 10.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 21.4 16.6 3.4 3.0 17.0 19.1 1.3 1.2

    Sun Pharma Neutral 949 - 98,171 13,509 15,846 41.0 41.0 33.0 39.8 28.8 23.9 5.8 4.8 22.0 22.0 6.7 5.5

    Power

    GIPCL Accumulate 70 78 1,059 1,444 1,482 33.4 33.0 13.7 14.8 5.1 4.7 0.6 0.5 12.3 12.0 0.8 0.6

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  • 7/28/2019 Market Outlook, 14-06-2013

    11/13

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Power

    NTPC Accumulate 150 163 123,476 76,734 86,680 24.5 24.3 13.4 14.5 11.2 10.3 1.4 1.3 12.8 12.7 2.3 2.2

    Real Estate

    DLF Buy 187 236 33,192 8,293 9,622 36.5 36.1 5.7 6.7 32.7 27.7 1.2 1.1 3.7 4.1 6.1 5.1

    MLIFE Buy 398 476 1,623 888 1,002 30.6 30.6 38.8 43.4 10.2 9.2 1.1 1.0 11.2 11.4 2.4 2.1

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Buy 288 338 109,217 86,592 95,860 31.4 31.8 10.9 14.5 26.4 19.8 2.0 1.9 7.7 9.3 1.9 1.6

    Idea Cellular Neutral 135 - 44,789 25,122 27,663 27.0 27.2 4.0 4.8 34.0 28.4 2.8 2.6 8.3 9.1 2.2 1.9Rcom Neutral 106 - 21,775 22,801 24,628 31.0 31.3 3.6 5.3 29.6 20.0 0.6 0.6 2.2 3.1 2.5 2.2

    Others

    Abbott India* Accumulate 1,445 1,659 3,070 1,863 2,081 11.8 12.4 71.2 83.0 20.3 17.4 4.1 3.5 21.6 21.5 1.4 1.1

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 166 237 1,658 3,885 4,472 5.4 7.2 11.0 19.7 15.2 8.4 2.1 1.7 13.5 20.3 0.4 0.4

    Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 522 562 660 630 795 14.4 13.6 42.8 51.1 12.2 10.2 2.9 2.3 26.6 25.2 1.0 0.8

    Cravatex Buy 314 459 81 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 11.6 8.2 1.8 1.5 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.4

    Finolex Cables Buy 50 68 757 2,563 2,899 9.8 9.8 10.1 11.3 4.9 4.4 0.7 0.6 14.3 13.8 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 290 437 377 2,304 2,649 3.1 3.6 28.0 43.7 10.4 6.6 0.3 0.3 3.1 4.7 0.1 0.1

    Goodyear India* Accumulate 301 345 693 1,458 1,542 8.3 9.0 32.3 37.0 9.3 8.1 1.7 1.5 19.5 19.3 0.3 0.2

    Hitachi Buy 130 177 353 1,053 1,169 6.3 7.1 13.8 17.7 9.4 7.3 1.3 1.1 15.0 16.7 0.4 0.3

    Honeywell Automation* Neutral 2,449 - 2,165 1,842 2,131 7.7 7.8 112.4 132.4 21.8 18.5 2.7 2.4 13.3 13.8 1.1 0.9

    IFB Agro Buy 159 198 143 495 651 12.7 12.9 29.3 39.5 5.4 4.0 0.8 0.7 15.4 17.6 0.4 0.3

    ITD Cementation Buy 164 234 189 1,430 1,573 11.1 11.0 19.1 26.9 8.6 6.1 0.5 0.4 4.9 6.3 0.5 0.5

    Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 191 - 3,075 1,220 1,476 13.3 13.6 5.5 9.0 34.6 21.1 4.0 3.5 12.1 17.7 2.9 2.3

    MRF Neutral 14,357 - 6,089 11,799 12,587 14.1 13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0 8.0 8.0 1.7 1.4 23.5 19.2 0.6 0.6

    Page Industries Buy 3,988 4,611 4,448 1,057 1,282 19.4 19.6 124.8 153.7 32.0 25.9 15.8 11.7 56.3 51.8 4.3 3.5Relaxo Footwears Buy 664 791 797 1,146 1,333 10.9 11.4 45.9 60.9 14.5 10.9 3.0 2.4 23.0 24.6 0.9 0.7

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 247 343 232 1,158 1,322 11.9 11.9 72.9 85.7 3.4 2.9 0.6 0.5 19.9 19.6 0.4 0.4

    Styrolution ABS India* Buy 415 617 730 1,068 1,223 9.6 9.6 38.1 44.1 10.9 9.4 1.5 1.3 14.5 14.7 0.7 0.6

    TAJ GVK Buy 60 108 378 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 7.6 6.6 1.0 0.9 13.9 14.4 1.6 1.3

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 277 371 426 814 849 17.0 17.6 64.6 69.2 4.3 4.0 0.6 0.5 14.5 13.8 0.1 (0.1)

    TTK Healthcare Buy 533 686 414 435 516 6.2 7.1 24.3 33.3 21.9 16.0 3.6 3.1 17.6 20.8 0.8 0.6

    Tree House Accumulate 274 297 986 153 194 53.0 52.8 12.4 15.6 22.1 17.5 2.6 2.3 11.8 13.1 6.6 5.1

    TVS Srichakra Buy 183 252 140 1,591 1,739 6.1 6.6 24.5 41.9 7.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 10.9 17.2 0.3 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 2,332 - 33,896 12,294 14,162 12.0 12.0 42.1 67.7 55.4 34.5 3.9 3.5 9.1 10.7 3.1 2.7

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E FY14E FY15E

    Others

    Vesuvius India* Buy 365 439 741 600 638 20.1 19.4 35.7 36.6 10.2 10.0 1.8 1.6 19.4 17.1 1.0 0.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 13, 2013

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    Market OutlookJune 14, 2013