Market Outlook - Angel Backofficeweb.angelbackoffice.com/.../Market_Outlook...2016.pdf · Market Outlook March 21, 2016 Interest rate on Public Provident Fund cut to 8.1% from 8.7%

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Market Outlook March 21, 2016

Market Cues

Indian market is expected to open on a flat to positive note tracking the SGX Nifty.

US indices ended the week on a strong footing wherein Dow Jones surged by 2.3% during the week. Stocks appeared to benefit from the upward momentum seen on the Wall Street since the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed announcement was widely interpreted as dovish, as the revised forecast for interest rates showed that officials now expect only two rate hikes by the end of this year compared to the four predicted back in December.

The European markets got off to a weak start on Friday, but quickly recovered from that early drop. Trading action was choppy for the rest of the session, as the markets settled into a sideways trend. Banking stocks were among the top performers at the end of the trading week. The European Central Bank can reduce its deposit rate further into negative territory, if new shocks emerge to threaten inflation and growth, and the bank can also consider distributing money directly to people as an extreme step said an ECB Executive Board Member and Chief Economist.

Indian shares ended firmly in positive as rise in commodity prices, positive global cues and strength in rupee on the back of renewed foreign fund flows boosted investor’s sentiment.

News & Result Analysis Interest rate on Public Provident Fund cut to 8.1% from 8.7% Detailed analysis on Pg2

Investor’s Ready Reckoner

Key Domestic & Global Indicators

Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks

Refer Pg4 onwards

Top Picks Company Sector Rating

CMP (`)

Target(`)

Upside (%)

Amara Raja Batteries Auto & Auto Ancillary Buy 902 1,040 15.3

HCL Tech IT Buy 824 1,038 26.0

LIC Housing Finance Financials Buy 464 592 27.6

Bharat Electronics Capital Goods Buy 1,103 1,414 28.2

Navkar Corporation Others Buy 166 265 59.7

More Top Picks on Pg3

Key Upcoming Events Date Region

Event Description

PreviousReading

Consensus Expectations

Mar 21 US Existing Home Sales (Feb) 5.47M 5.31M

Mar 25 US GDP Qoq (Annualized) - % Change 1.00 1.00

Apr 1 China PMI Manufacturing 49.00 ---

Apr 5 India RBI Repo Rate 6.75% ---

6.(

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 1.1 275 24,953

Nifty 1.2 92 7,604

Mid Cap 0.7 67 10,300

Small Cap 0.6 63 10,309

Bankex 1.5 259 17,852

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones 0.7 121 17,602

Nasdaq 0.4 21 4,796

FTSE (0.2) (11) 6,190

Nikkei (1.2) (212) 16,725

Hang Seng 0.8 168 20,672

Shanghai Com 1.7 50 2,955

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,267 823

Declines 1,352 714

Unchanged 183 79

Volumes (` Cr)

BSE 2,755

NSE 18,812

Net Inflows (` Cr) Net Mtd Ytd

FII 939 10,657 (31,046)

MFs (393) (3,141) 74,087

Top Gainers Price (`) Chg (%)

Cox&Kings 190 7.3

Voltas 269 6.9

Prestige 139 6.8

Vedl 92 6.4

Shreecem 12,332 6.0

Top Losers Price (`) Chg (%)

Lupin 1,559 (6.9)

Rtnpower 11 (4.9)

Den 87 (4.8)

Ibulhsgfin 612 (3.7)

Vakrangee 215 (3.1) As on March 18, 2016



Interest rate on Public Provident Fund cut to 8.1% from 8.7%

The government announced a steep cut in interest rates on small savings schemes such as Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Savings Certificate (NSC) and Kisan Vikas Patras - which will fetch up to 90 basis points lower returns during the April-June quarter. The interest rate on PPF scheme will be cut to 8.1% for the period April 1 to June 30, from 8.7%, at present.

The below table summarized the existing as well as the new rates for various deposits and schemes:

Type Interest Rate –

NowNew

Interest Rate Change

PPF 8.7 8.1 (0.6)

Sukanya Samriddhi Account 9.2 8.6 (0.6)

Senior citizen savings scheme (5 yrs) 9.3 8.6 (0.7)

Kisan Vikas Patra 8.7 7.8 (0.9)

National Savings Certificate (5 yrs) 8.5 8.1 (0.4)

Monthly Income Account (5 yrs) 8.4 7.8 (0.6)

Post office deposit (5 yrs) 8.5 7.9 (0.6)

Post office recurring deposit (5 yrs) 8.4 7.4 (1.0)

Post office deposit (1 yrs) 8.4 7.1 (1.3)

A reduction in rates on small savings is also bad news for those with large balance in fixed deposits, especially senior citizens, as banks are now expected to follow government action with similar cuts. However, this is a very positive step for the banks as the deposit rates by the banks will be reduced accordingly which will ensure a reduction in the lending rate. We expect nearly 100bp cut in the bank’s base rate over FY2017 and this could lead to a positive impact for all the rate sensitive sectors. Our top picks include HDFC bank from the banking space and LIC Housing Finance from the Housing Finance space.

Economic and Political News Govt expects no dividend from at least 9 PSU banks

Govt to finish 59% of `6 lakh cr borrowing budgeted for FY17 in first half

Forex reserves jump $2.54 billion to $353.40 billion

Corporate News Tata Steel expects `20,000cr investment in Gopalpur SEZ

Torrent Pharma's Dahej plant gets EIR from USFDA

Aurobindo Pharma gets USFDA nod for osteoporosis drug



Top Picks ★★★★★ Large Cap

Company Market Cap

(` Cr) CMP

(`)Target

(`) Upside

(%) Rationale

Amara Raja Batteries 15,408 902 1,040 15.3 To outpace battery industry growth due to better technological products leading to market share gains in both the automotive OEM and replacement segments.

Ashok Leyland 27,079 95 111 16.7 Earnings to grow strongly given the MHCV cyclical upturn. Focus on exports and LCV's provides additional growth avenue.

Bharat Electronics 26,468 1,103 1,414 28.2 Uptick in defense capex by government when coupled with BELs strong market positioning, indicate that good times are ahead for BEL.

HCL Tech 1,16,194 824 1,038 26.0 The stock is trading at attractive valuations and is factoring all the bad news.

HDFC Bank 2,60,002 1,029 1,262 22.7 Strong visibility for a robust 20% earnings trajectory, coupled with high quality of earnings on account of high quality retail business and strategic focus on highly rated corporates.

Infosys 2,74,275 1,190 1,347 13.2 Back on the growth trend, expect a long term growth of 14% to be a US$20bn in FY2020.

LIC Housing Finance 23,394 464 592 27.6

LICHF continues to grow its retail loan book at a healthy pace with improvement in asset quality. We expect the company to post a healthy loan book which is likely to reflect in a strong earnings growth.

NBCC 11,426 952 1,089 14.4 Huge bid pipeline of re-development works at Delhi and other State Governments and opportunity from Smart City, positions NBCC to report strong growth, going forward.

TVS Motors 13,625 287 330 15.1 New launches to enable outpace industry growth; margins expansion to boost earnings.

Source: Company, Angel Research

Mid Cap

Company Market Cap

(` Cr) CMP

(`) Target

(`)Upside

(%) Rationale

Blue Star 3,276 364 439 20.5

Favourable outlook for the AC industry to augur well for Cooling products business which is out pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability to improve once operating environment turns around.

IL&FS Transport 2,382 72 93 28.5 Commencement of new projects, downtrend in the interest rate cycle, to lead to stock re-rating

Jagran Prakashan 4,781 146 189 29.2

Economic recovery to have favourable impact on advertising & circulation revenue growth. Further, the acquisition of a radio business (Radio City) would also boost the company's revenue growth.

Mahindra Lifespace 1,760 429 554 29.2 Speedier execution and speedier sales, strong revenue visibilty in short-to-long run, attractive valuations

Navkar Corporation 2,366 166 265 59.7 Massive capacity expansion along with rail advantage at ICD as well CFS augurs well for the company

Radico Khaitan 1,282 96 156 61.8 Earnings boost on back of stable material prices and favourable pricing environment. Valuation discount to peers provides additional comfort

Siyaram Silk Mills 929 992 1,354 36.6 Strong brands and distribution network would boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at an inexpensive valuation.

Source: Company, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

Mar 21, 2016 7:30PM US Existing home sales Million Feb 5.47 5.31

Mar 22, 2016 3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Feb 0.30 0.40

2:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Mar P 50.50 50.80

2:00PM Germany PMI Services Value Mar P 55.30 55.00

Mar 23, 2016 8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Mar A (8.80) (8.30)

7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Feb 494.00 510.00

Mar 24, 2016 6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Mar 19 265.00 --

Mar 25, 2016 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 4Q T 1.00 1.00

Mar 29, 2016 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Mar 92.20 --

Mar 31, 2016 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Mar (10.00) --

2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q F 1.90 --

Apr 1, 2016 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Mar 50.80 --

6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Mar 49.00 --

6:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Mar 242.00 --

6:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Mar 4.90 --

Apr 5, 2016 11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Apr 5 5.75 --

11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Apr 5 6.75 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Apr 5 4.00 --

Apr 8, 2016 India Imports YoY% % Change Mar (5.00) --

India Exports YoY% % Change Mar (5.66) --

2:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Feb 0.20 --

Apr 11, 2016 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Mar 2.30 --

Apr 12, 2016 5:30PM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Feb (1.50) --

Apr 13, 2016 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Mar (0.60) --

China Exports YoY% % Change Mar (25.40) --

Apr 14, 2016 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Mar (0.91) --

6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Mar (0.20) --

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Mar F (0.20) --

4:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Apr 14 0.50 --

Apr 15, 2016 6:45PM US Industrial Production % Mar (0.49) --

7:30AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar 5.90 --

7:30AM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q 6.80 --

Apr 19, 2016 6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Mar 1,178.00 --

6:00PM US Building permits Thousands Mar 1,167.00 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

March 21, 2016

Market Outlook

Key Upcoming Events

h

1

Market Outlook

March 21, 2016

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

4.5

6.7

7.8

6.4

5.8

7.5

8.3

6.6 6.7

7.6 7.7

7.3

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

4Q

FY13

1Q

FY14

2Q

FY14

3Q

FY14

4Q

FY14

1Q

FY15

2Q

FY15

3Q

FY15

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

(%)

2.5 3.0

2.5

4.2 4.3

6.3

3.7

9.9

(3.4)

(1.2) (1.5)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-

15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

(%)

5.3

4.9 5.0

5.4

3.7 3.7

4.4

5.0

5.4 5.6 5.7

5.2

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-

15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

(%)

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0 Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

Feb-16

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(35.0)

(30.0)

(25.0)

(20.0)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

0.0

Mar-1

5

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-15

Jan-1

6

Feb-1

6

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth (%)

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

Apr/15

May/15

Jun/15

Jun/15

Jul/

15

Aug/15

Aug/15

Sep/15

Oct/

15

Oct/

15

Nov/15

Dec/15

Dec/15

Jan/16

Feb/16

Mar/16

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

h

2

Market Outlook

March 21, 2016


Global watch

Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries


Exhibit 2: 2015 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

(5.9)

(4.1)

5.3

6.8

0.6

5.0 4.5

2.8

1.9 1.9 2.1

1.4

0.7

(8.0)

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South A

frica

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(%)

(3.0)

(3.8)

7.3 6.8

1.4

4.7 4.7

2.5 2.5 2.6

1.5 1.2

0.6

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South A

frica

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(%)

13

.2

3.8

18

.0

12

.4

19

.5

17

.5

15

.4

14

.1

15

.4

16

.0

12

.0

13

.4

14

.0

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South

Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(x)

h

3

Market Outlook

March 21, 2016


Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe

Returns (%)

Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR

Brazil Bovespa 50,815 22.1 11.4 3.9

Russia Micex 1,914 10.1 11.3 17.3

India Nifty 7,604 7.9 (1.9) (11.9)

China Shanghai Composite 2,955 3.1 (14.0) (10.2)

South Africa Top 40 47,812 7.2 6.4 2.4

Mexico Mexbol 45,482 4.4 4.7 3.4

Indonesia LQ45 852 2.5 13.4 (10.0)

Malaysia KLCI 1,716 3.1 4.1 (3.9)

Thailand SET 50 889 9.2 6.8 (11.6)

USA Dow Jones 17,602 7.0 0.4 (2.9)

UK FTSE 6,190 2.6 2.1 (12.0)

Japan Nikkei 16,725 5.6 (11.4) (10.7)

Germany DAX 9,951 6.1 (4.8) (16.4)

France CAC 4,463 5.4 (4.6) (10.9)


Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 168 - 3,265 2,097 2,415 14.4 14.4 9.5 11.0 17.7 15.3 3.5 3.0 21.1 21.3 1.6 1.4

United Phosphorus Accumulate 436 480 18,696 12,500 14,375 18.3 18.3 29.8 35.9 14.6 12.2 2.7 2.3 20.0 20.3 1.6 1.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Ashok Leyland Buy 95 111 27,079 17,995 21,544 11.4 11.6 3.4 4.7 28.0 20.2 4.9 4.5 17.7 22.2 1.5 1.2

Bajaj Auto Accumulate 2,270 2,585 65,681 22,709 25,860 20.9 20.1 129.0 143.6 17.6 15.8 5.4 4.6 30.7 29.4 2.4 2.1

Bharat Forge Accumulate 825 875 19,216 7,351 8,318 19.9 19.7 31.2 36.5 26.5 22.6 4.7 4.0 19.3 19.2 2.8 2.4

Eicher Motors Accumulate 18,036 20,044 48,988 15,556 16,747 15.5 17.3 464.8 597.5 38.8 30.2 14.2 10.4 36.2 34.3 3.1 2.8

Gabriel India Buy 84 101 1,210 1,415 1,544 8.7 9.0 4.6 5.4 18.3 15.6 3.3 3.0 18.1 18.9 0.8 0.7

Hero Motocorp Neutral 2,833 - 56,569 28,244 30,532 15.5 15.9 156.7 168.5 18.1 16.8 7.2 6.1 39.9 36.4 1.8 1.7

Jamna Auto Industries Buy 132 160 1,054 1,281 1,473 11.2 11.5 7.6 9.2 17.4 14.4 4.4 3.6 25.4 25.2 0.9 0.8

L G Balakrishnan & Bros Neutral 425 - 667 1,254 1,394 11.6 11.8 35.9 41.7 11.9 10.2 1.6 1.4 13.5 13.8 0.6 0.6

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 1,222 1,364 75,910 38,416 42,904 13.7 13.9 54.8 63.4 22.3 19.3 3.4 3.1 15.4 15.8 1.6 1.4

Maruti Neutral 3,630 - 109,641 57,865 68,104 16.4 16.7 176.3 225.5 20.6 16.1 4.0 3.4 19.4 21.2 1.7 1.4

Minda Industries Accumulate 930 1,047 1,476 2,523 2,890 8.7 9.0 55.0 65.4 16.9 14.2 3.3 2.7 19.3 18.7 0.7 0.6

Motherson Sumi Buy 250 313 33,055 39,343 45,100 8.8 9.1 10.1 12.5 24.7 20.0 7.8 6.1 35.3 34.4 0.9 0.8

Rane Brake Lining Buy 358 465 283 454 511 11.5 12.0 25.2 31.0 14.2 11.6 2.1 1.9 14.9 16.6 0.8 0.7

Setco Automotive Neutral 31 - 409 594 741 12.7 13.7 1.7 3.2 18.0 9.6 1.9 1.6 10.4 16.9 1.1 0.9

Tata Motors Neutral 366 - 105,643 259,686 273,957 13.0 13.4 25.9 29.5 14.1 12.4 1.9 1.6 8.0 9.0 0.6 0.6

TVS Motor Buy 287 330 13,626 11,263 13,122 6.9 8.5 9.2 15.0 31.2 19.1 7.1 5.7 22.7 29.6 1.2 1.0

Amara Raja Batteries Buy 902 1,040 15,408 4,892 5,871 17.4 17.6 28.8 37.1 31.3 24.3 7.3 5.9 23.4 24.1 3.1 2.5

Exide Industries Buy 136 162 11,564 6,950 7,784 14.4 14.8 6.6 7.3 20.6 18.6 2.6 2.4 12.6 12.8 1.4 1.2

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 170 183 8,676 12,056 12,714 17.2 16.4 23.0 20.3 7.4 8.4 1.3 1.1 17.7 13.6 0.8 0.8

Ceat Neutral 1,087 - 4,396 6,041 6,597 14.1 13.7 99.5 111.9 10.9 9.7 2.2 1.8 19.6 18.5 0.9 0.8

JK Tyres Neutral 83 - 1,877 7,446 7,669 15.2 14.0 19.6 18.4 4.2 4.5 1.1 0.9 25.2 19.5 0.6 0.6

Swaraj Engines Accumulate 846 919 1,051 552 630 14.2 14.7 44.6 54.1 19.0 15.7 4.4 4.0 23.2 25.6 1.8 1.5

Subros Neutral 85 - 511 1,293 1,527 11.8 11.9 4.2 6.7 20.3 12.7 1.5 1.4 7.7 11.5 0.7 0.6

Indag Rubber Neutral 164 - 431 283 329 17.0 17.2 13.0 15.4 12.7 10.7 2.8 2.3 21.8 21.6 1.2 1.0

Capital Goods

ACE Neutral 36 - 358 660 839 4.7 8.2 1.0 3.9 36.2 9.3 1.1 1.0 3.2 11.3 0.7 0.6

BEML Accumulate 1,017 1,157 4,236 3,277 4,006 6.0 8.9 36.2 64.3 28.1 15.8 2.0 1.8 5.7 11.7 1.4 1.1

Bharat Electronics Buy 1,103 1,414 26,468 7,737 8,634 16.8 17.2 54.0 61.5 20.4 17.9 2.9 2.6 39.3 45.6 2.5 2.2


March 21, 2016

Stock Watch



Capital Goods

Voltas Buy 269 353 8,897 5,363 5,963 8.0 9.1 11.0 13.8 24.5 19.5 3.8 3.3 16.2 17.9 1.6 1.4

BGR Energy Neutral 102 - 739 3,615 3,181 9.5 9.4 16.7 12.4 6.1 8.3 0.6 0.6 10.0 7.0 0.6 0.8

BHEL Neutral 113 - 27,744 33,722 35,272 10.8 11.7 10.5 14.2 10.8 8.0 0.8 0.8 7.0 9.0 0.9 0.9

Blue Star Buy 364 439 3,276 3,548 3,977 6.3 6.9 13.7 17.2 26.6 21.2 6.7 4.4 26.1 25.4 1.0 0.9

Crompton Greaves Neutral 48 - 2,990 13,484 14,687 4.9 6.2 4.5 7.1 10.6 6.7 0.8 0.7 7.2 10.8 0.4 0.3

Greaves Cotton Neutral 122 - 2,984 1,655 1,755 16.6 16.8 7.4 7.8 16.5 15.7 3.3 3.1 21.1 20.6 1.8 1.6

Inox Wind Buy 267 458 5,925 4,980 5,943 17.0 17.5 26.6 31.6 10.0 8.5 3.0 2.2 35.0 30.0 1.3 1.1

KEC International Neutral 120 - 3,093 8,791 9,716 6.1 6.8 5.4 8.2 22.3 14.7 2.2 2.0 10.0 14.0 0.6 0.5

Thermax Neutral 772 - 9,198 6,413 7,525 7.4 8.5 30.5 39.3 25.3 19.6 3.9 3.4 15.0 17.0 1.4 1.2

VATech Wabag Neutral 509 - 2,774 2,722 3,336 7.9 8.1 19.5 24.6 26.1 20.7 2.7 2.4 11.1 12.4 1.1 0.9

Cement

ACC Neutral 1,337 - 25,103 13,151 14,757 16.4 18.3 63.9 83.4 20.9 16.0 2.7 2.5 13.3 16.1 1.7 1.5

Ambuja Cements Neutral 222 - 34,444 11,564 12,556 19.4 20.7 8.9 10.1 24.9 22.0 3.1 3.0 12.8 13.8 2.6 2.4

HeidelbergCement Neutral 78 - 1,771 1,772 1,926 13.3 15.4 1.0 3.0 78.2 26.1 2.0 1.8 2.6 7.9 1.6 1.4

India Cements Neutral 81 - 2,480 4,216 4,840 18.0 19.5 4.0 9.9 20.2 8.2 0.8 0.8 4.0 9.5 0.9 0.7

JK Cement Neutral 619 - 4,332 3,661 4,742 10.1 15.8 7.5 28.5 82.6 21.7 2.5 2.2 7.5 22.9 1.7 1.2

J K Lakshmi Cement Neutral 329 - 3,867 2,947 3,616 16.7 19.9 11.5 27.2 28.6 12.1 2.7 2.3 9.8 20.8 1.7 1.4

Mangalam Cements Neutral 211 - 563 1,053 1,347 10.5 13.3 8.4 26.0 25.1 8.1 1.1 1.0 4.3 12.5 0.9 0.7

Orient Cement Neutral 145 - 2,974 1,854 2,524 21.2 22.2 7.7 11.1 18.9 13.1 2.7 2.3 13.3 15.7 2.3 1.6

Ramco Cements Neutral 397 - 9,449 4,036 4,545 20.8 21.3 15.1 18.8 26.3 21.1 3.2 2.9 12.9 14.3 2.9 2.5

Shree Cement^ Neutral 12,332 - 42,963 7,150 8,742 26.7 28.6 228.0 345.5 54.1 35.7 8.0 6.7 15.7 20.3 5.8 4.6

UltraTech Cement Neutral 3,110 - 85,355 24,669 29,265 18.2 20.6 82.0 120.0 37.9 25.9 4.1 3.6 11.3 14.7 3.5 3.0

Construction

ITNL Buy 72 93 2,382 7,360 8,825 34.0 35.9 7.0 9.0 10.3 8.0 0.4 0.3 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.6

KNR Constructions Buy 494 603 1,389 937 1,470 14.3 14.0 44.2 38.6 11.2 12.8 2.2 1.9 15.4 15.4 1.6 1.0

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,199 1,310 111,708 58,870 65,708 8.3 10.3 42.0 53.0 28.6 22.6 2.0 1.8 8.8 11.2 2.1 1.9

Gujarat Pipavav Port Neutral 167 - 8,064 629 684 51.0 52.2 6.4 5.9 26.1 28.3 3.4 3.2 15.9 12.7 12.5 11.3

MBL Infrastructures Buy 139 285 575 2,313 2,797 12.2 14.6 19.0 20.0 7.3 6.9 0.8 0.7 11.3 10.6 1.0 0.9

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 71 - 3,955 7,892 8,842 8.8 9.1 3.0 5.3 23.7 13.4 1.2 1.1 5.0 8.5 0.7 0.6

PNC Infratech Accumulate 490 558 2,512 1,873 2,288 13.2 13.5 24.0 32.0 20.4 15.3 2.0 1.8 12.1 12.3 1.4 1.2

Simplex Infra Neutral 226 - 1,117 5,955 6,829 10.3 10.5 16.0 31.0 14.1 7.3 0.8 0.7 5.3 9.9 0.7 0.6


March 21, 2016

Stock Watch



Construction

Power Mech Projects Neutral 567 - 834 1,539 1,801 12.8 12.7 59.0 72.1 9.6 7.9 1.4 1.2 18.6 16.8 0.5 0.5

Sadbhav Engineering Accumulate 259 289 4,444 3,481 4,219 10.7 10.8 8.2 11.7 31.6 22.1 3.0 2.6 10.3 13.5 1.5 1.3

NBCC Accumulate 952 1,089 11,426 5,816 7,382 6.9 7.7 29.6 39.8 32.2 23.9 5.8 4.6 24.1 26.7 1.7 1.3

MEP Infra Neutral 38 - 620 1,956 1,876 28.1 30.5 1.3 3.0 29.4 12.7 6.2 4.2 21.2 32.8 1.7 1.7

SIPL Neutral 85 - 2,982 675 1,042 62.4 64.7 - - 3.2 3.6 - - 16.1 10.9

Engineers India Neutral 162 - 5,455 1,667 1,725 13.5 16.0 9.7 11.4 16.7 14.2 2.0 1.9 11.7 13.4 2.1 2.1

Financials

Allahabad Bank Neutral 53 - 3,174 8,569 9,392 2.8 2.9 16.3 27.5 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.2 7.6 11.9 - -

Axis Bank Accumulate 436 494 103,830 26,473 31,527 3.5 3.6 35.7 43.5 12.2 10.0 2.1 1.8 17.9 18.9 - -

Bank of Baroda Neutral 144 - 33,191 18,485 21,025 1.9 2.0 13.5 21.1 10.7 6.8 0.9 0.8 7.3 10.6 - -

Bank of India Neutral 97 - 7,843 15,972 17,271 1.9 2.0 15.3 33.4 6.3 2.9 0.3 0.3 3.6 7.6 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 190 - 10,322 15,441 16,945 2.0 2.1 46.6 70.4 4.1 2.7 0.4 0.3 8.0 11.2 - -

Dena Bank Neutral 29 - 1,842 3,440 3,840 2.1 2.3 7.3 10.0 3.9 2.8 0.3 0.2 6.1 7.9 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 50 - 8,572 3,477 3,999 3.0 3.0 5.0 6.2 10.0 8.0 1.0 0.9 10.6 11.9 - -

HDFC Neutral 1,128 - 178,093 10,358 11,852 3.3 3.3 41.1 47.0 27.5 24.0 5.2 4.8 24.7 24.9 - -

HDFC Bank Buy 1,029 1,262 260,002 38,309 47,302 4.3 4.3 49.3 61.1 20.9 16.9 3.6 3.1 18.5 19.7 - -

ICICI Bank Accumulate 230 254 133,927 34,279 39,262 3.3 3.3 21.0 24.4 11.0 9.5 1.9 1.6 14.4 14.7 - -

IDBI Bank Neutral 67 - 12,759 9,625 10,455 1.8 1.8 8.5 14.2 7.9 4.7 0.5 0.4 5.9 9.3 - -

Indian Bank Neutral 102 - 4,921 6,160 6,858 2.5 2.5 24.5 29.8 4.2 3.4 0.3 0.3 7.7 8.6 - -

LIC Housing Finance Buy 464 592 23,394 3,101 3,745 2.5 2.5 33.0 40.2 14.1 11.5 2.6 2.2 19.7 20.5 - -

Oriental Bank Neutral 91 - 2,730 7,643 8,373 2.4 2.4 37.2 45.4 2.5 2.0 0.2 0.2 8.2 9.4 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Neutral 84 - 16,563 23,638 26,557 2.8 2.8 17.9 27.2 4.7 3.1 0.5 0.4 8.5 12.0 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 18 - 2,390 1,965 2,185 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.3 7.1 5.4 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.7 - -

St Bk of India Neutral 191 - 148,308 79,958 86,061 2.6 2.6 13.4 20.7 14.3 9.2 1.2 1.1 11.5 12.8 - -

Union Bank Neutral 128 - 8,803 12,646 14,129 2.3 2.4 31.0 39.1 4.1 3.3 0.4 0.4 9.8 11.4 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 31 - 2,633 3,536 3,827 1.9 1.9 5.5 6.7 5.5 4.6 0.5 0.4 7.8 8.8 - -

Yes Bank Neutral 814 - 34,224 7,190 9,011 3.2 3.3 58.2 69.7 14.0 11.7 2.5 2.1 19.2 19.6 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 875 - 83,920 16,553 19,160 16.0 16.2 17.7 21.5 49.5 40.7 13.1 11.8 29.4 31.2 4.9 4.2

Britannia Neutral 2,687 - 32,242 8,481 9,795 14.0 14.1 65.5 78.3 41.0 34.3 19.4 15.9 38.3 41.2 3.7 3.2

Colgate Neutral 851 - 23,135 4,836 5,490 19.5 19.7 48.5 53.2 17.5 16.0 12.9 11.2 99.8 97.5 4.7 4.1


March 21, 2016

Stock Watch



FMCG

Dabur India Accumulate 249 267 43,873 9,370 10,265 17.1 17.2 7.3 8.1 34.0 30.8 10.3 8.3 33.7 30.6 4.6 4.2

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 5,980 - 25,148 4,919 5,742 17.2 17.4 168.3 191.2 35.5 31.3 10.1 8.6 28.8 28.9 4.7 4.0

Godrej Consumer Neutral 1,327 - 45,199 10,168 12,886 16.1 16.1 32.1 38.4 41.4 34.6 8.4 7.8 19.7 21.0 4.5 3.6

HUL Neutral 846 - 183,074 34,940 38,957 17.5 17.7 20.8 24.7 40.7 34.3 45.2 36.2 110.5 114.2 5.0 4.5

ITC Accumulate 325 359 261,243 36,804 38,776 37.9 37.9 12.2 12.9 26.6 25.2 7.4 6.5 27.7 25.8 6.7 6.3

Marico Neutral 247 - 31,893 6,551 7,766 15.7 16.0 10.4 12.5 23.8 19.8 6.9 5.8 33.2 32.4 4.8 4.0

Nestle* Buy 5,200 6,646 50,132 11,291 12,847 22.2 22.3 158.9 184.6 32.7 28.2 17.1 15.4 55.0 57.3 4.3 3.7

Tata Global Buy 119 144 7,504 8,635 9,072 9.8 9.9 6.5 7.6 18.3 15.6 1.8 1.8 6.8 7.4 0.8 0.8

IT

HCL Tech^ Buy 824 1,038 116,194 42,038 47,503 21.2 21.5 51.5 57.7 16.0 14.3 3.5 2.7 21.5 18.8 2.4 1.9

Infosys Accumulate 1,190 1,347 274,275 61,850 69,981 27.5 27.5 59.4 65.7 20.0 18.1 4.3 3.6 21.2 20.1 3.7 3.1

TCS Buy 2,427 2,854 478,272 108,487 122,590 28.3 28.5 122.8 138.4 19.8 17.5 7.5 6.8 38.0 38.9 4.0 3.5

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 493 530 47,712 26,524 29,177 16.2 17.0 28.8 33.6 17.1 14.7 3.3 2.8 19.3 19.1 1.6 1.4

Wipro Buy 547 680 135,057 50,808 56,189 23.7 23.8 37.3 40.7 14.7 13.4 2.8 2.6 19.2 17.7 2.1 1.8

Media

D B Corp Accumulate 314 356 5,766 2,241 2,495 27.8 27.9 21.8 25.6 14.4 12.3 3.8 3.3 26.7 28.5 2.5 2.3

HT Media Neutral 80 - 1,862 2,495 2,603 11.2 11.2 7.3 8.6 11.0 9.3 0.9 0.8 7.4 8.1 0.3 0.2

Jagran Prakashan Buy 146 189 4,781 2,170 2,355 27.2 26.2 8.9 9.9 16.4 14.8 3.5 3.0 20.9 20.5 2.1 1.9

Sun TV Network Neutral 370 - 14,563 2,779 3,196 70.2 70.5 22.8 27.3 16.2 13.5 4.0 3.6 26.7 28.3 5.0 4.3Hindustan Media Ventures Neutral 247 - 1,810 920 1,031 20.0 20.0 19.2 20.9 12.8 11.8 2.1 1.8 16.4 15.3 1.5 1.3

Metals & Mining

Coal India Buy 298 380 188,007 76,167 84,130 19.9 22.3 22.4 25.8 13.3 11.5 4.8 4.7 35.5 41.0 1.8 1.6

Hind. Zinc Neutral 172 - 72,485 14,641 14,026 50.4 50.4 17.7 16.0 9.7 10.7 1.5 1.4 16.2 13.2 2.6 2.4

Hindalco Neutral 85 - 17,573 104,356 111,186 8.7 9.5 6.7 11.1 12.7 7.7 0.5 0.4 3.5 5.9 0.7 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 1,212 - 29,285 42,308 45,147 16.4 20.7 (10.3) 49.5 24.5 1.4 1.3 (1.0) 5.6 1.7 1.6

NMDC Neutral 98 - 38,894 8,237 10,893 46.6 44.5 10.0 11.7 9.9 8.4 1.1 1.0 12.5 13.0 4.5 3.4

SAIL Neutral 43 - 17,697 45,915 53,954 7.2 10.5 1.5 4.4 28.5 9.8 0.4 0.4 2.3 4.1 1.0 0.9

Vedanta Neutral 92 - 27,364 71,445 81,910 26.2 26.3 12.9 19.2 7.2 4.8 0.5 0.4 7.2 8.9 0.8 0.6

Tata Steel Neutral 302 - 29,331 126,760 137,307 8.9 11.3 6.4 23.1 47.5 13.1 1.0 0.9 2.0 7.1 0.8 0.8

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Neutral 155 - 29,032 11,323 12,490 49.4 51.0 20.7 20.7 7.5 7.5 0.5 0.5 6.4 6.1 1.6 1.0

GAIL Neutral 364 - 46,192 64,856 70,933 9.1 9.6 24.0 28.9 15.2 12.6 1.3 1.2 8.8 9.6 0.9 0.8

ONGC Neutral 215 - 183,558 154,564 167,321 36.8 37.4 28.6 32.5 7.5 6.6 1.0 0.9 12.7 13.5 1.4 1.3


March 21, 2016

Stock Watch



Oil & Gas

Petronet LNG Neutral 248 - 18,566 29,691 31,188 5.8 6.2 12.8 13.4 19.4 18.4 2.9 2.6 15.8 14.8 0.7 0.7

Indian Oil Corp Buy 391 455 94,945 359,607 402,760 5.9 6.1 42.5 48.7 9.2 8.0 1.2 1.1 14.1 14.4 0.4 0.3

Reliance Industries Accumulate 1,025 1,150 332,176 304,775 344,392 12.6 13.4 91.3 102.6 11.2 10.0 1.3 1.1 11.8 12.0 1.0 0.9

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 612 - 11,529 3,274 3,802 26.9 19.4 35.0 28.7 17.5 21.3 7.7 5.8 55.6 31.2 3.5 2.9

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 721 856 42,185 14,923 17,162 22.0 23.0 35.7 42.8 20.2 16.8 5.9 4.5 34.0 30.2 3.2 2.7

Aventis* Neutral 4,164 - 9,589 2,082 2,371 17.4 20.8 118.2 151.5 35.2 27.5 5.2 4.1 19.9 25.5 4.3 3.6

Cadila Healthcare Neutral 341 - 34,935 10,224 11,840 21.0 22.0 14.6 17.6 23.4 19.4 6.4 5.0 30.8 29.0 3.5 2.9

Cipla Accumulate 528 605 42,447 13,979 16,447 20.2 18.6 25.7 27.5 20.6 19.2 3.4 2.9 17.6 16.1 3.0 2.5

Dr Reddy's Buy 3,170 3,933 54,067 16,838 19,575 25.0 23.1 167.5 178.8 18.9 17.7 4.0 3.3 23.1 20.4 3.1 2.7

Dishman Pharma Neutral 343 - 2,772 1,733 1,906 21.5 21.5 17.0 19.9 20.2 17.3 2.0 1.8 10.5 11.2 2.1 1.8

GSK Pharma* Neutral 3,398 - 28,779 2,870 3,158 20.0 22.1 59.5 68.3 57.1 49.8 16.8 17.3 28.5 34.3 9.5 8.7

Indoco Remedies Neutral 274 - 2,524 1,033 1,199 15.9 18.2 9.4 13.6 29.1 20.1 4.3 3.7 15.7 19.7 2.5 2.2

Ipca labs Buy 557 900 7,021 3,363 3,909 12.9 18.6 13.4 28.0 41.5 19.9 3.0 2.6 7.4 14.0 2.4 2.0

Lupin Neutral 1,559 - 70,238 13,092 16,561 25.0 27.0 50.4 68.3 30.9 22.8 6.4 5.1 22.8 24.7 5.1 3.9

Sun Pharma Buy 816 950 196,360 28,163 32,610 25.8 30.7 17.4 26.9 46.9 30.3 4.5 3.9 13.0 16.6 6.4 5.4

Power

Tata Power Neutral 59 - 15,822 35,923 37,402 22.6 22.8 4.1 5.2 14.4 11.4 1.1 1.0 7.5 9.3 1.4 1.3

NTPC Accumulate 127 146 105,047 87,271 99,297 23.5 23.5 11.8 13.3 10.8 9.6 1.2 1.1 11.5 12.2 2.2 2.0

Power Grid Buy 137 170 71,568 20,702 23,361 86.7 86.4 12.1 13.2 11.3 10.4 1.7 1.5 15.6 15.1 8.4 7.8

Real Estate

MLIFE Buy 429 554 1,760 697 1,011 14.9 19.3 13.8 20.1 31.1 21.3 1.2 1.1 3.8 5.3 3.8 2.6

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 345 - 137,770 101,748 109,191 32.1 31.7 12.0 12.5 28.7 27.6 2.0 1.9 6.9 6.7 2.0 1.8

Idea Cellular Neutral 102 - 36,761 34,282 36,941 32.0 31.5 5.9 6.2 17.3 16.5 1.6 1.4 9.9 9.3 1.7 1.6

zOthers

Abbott India Neutral 4,613 - 9,802 2,715 3,153 14.5 14.1 134.3 152.2 34.4 30.3 8.6 7.1 27.4 25.6 3.3 2.8

Bajaj Electricals Buy 194 237 1,956 4,719 5,287 5.2 5.8 8.6 12.7 22.6 15.3 2.6 2.3 11.4 14.8 0.4 0.4

Finolex Cables Neutral 242 - 3,704 2,520 2,883 12.2 12.0 12.7 14.2 19.1 17.1 2.6 2.3 13.6 13.5 1.2 1.0

Goodyear India* Buy 479 582 1,104 1,800 1,600 11.7 11.5 58.7 52.9 8.2 9.0 1.8 1.6 24.6 18.7 0.4 0.4

Hitachi Neutral 1,145 - 3,113 1,779 2,081 7.8 8.8 21.8 33.4 52.5 34.3 8.5 6.9 17.4 22.1 1.8 1.5

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 282 - 5,108 1,620 1,847 11.5 11.5 7.3 8.5 38.7 33.3 5.0 4.6 13.3 14.4 3.0 2.6

MRF Buy 34,680 45,575 14,708 20,316 14,488 21.4 21.1 5,488.0 3,798.0 6.3 9.1 2.2 1.8 41.1 21.2 0.7 0.9

Page Industries Neutral 11,665 - 13,011 1,929 2,450 19.8 20.1 229.9 299.0 50.7 39.0 22.4 15.6 52.1 47.1 6.8 5.3


March 21, 2016

Stock Watch



zOthers

Relaxo Footwears Neutral 377 - 4,526 1,767 2,152 12.3 12.5 19.3 25.1 19.6 15.0 4.8 3.7 27.7 27.8 2.6 2.1

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 992 1,354 929 1,636 1,815 11.5 11.5 89.9 104.1 11.0 9.5 1.8 1.6 17.9 17.8 0.7 0.6

Styrolution ABS India* Neutral 556 - 979 1,271 1,440 8.6 9.2 32.0 41.1 17.4 13.6 1.8 1.6 10.7 12.4 0.7 0.6

TVS Srichakra Buy 2,355 3,217 1,803 2,035 2,252 15.9 15.3 248.6 268.1 9.5 8.8 4.1 3.0 43.6 33.9 0.9 0.8

HSIL Accumulate 281 302 2,030 2,123 2,384 16.1 16.5 15.0 18.9 18.7 14.9 1.5 1.4 8.0 9.4 1.3 1.1Kirloskar Engines India Ltd Neutral 207 - 2,999 2,403 2,554 8.6 9.9 9.2 10.5 22.6 19.8 2.2 2.1 9.7 10.7 0.9 0.8

M M Forgings Buy 433 614 523 511 615 21.7 21.6 43.1 55.8 10.0 7.8 1.8 1.5 19.9 21.2 1.2 0.9

Banco Products (India) Neutral 104 - 741 1,208 1,353 11.0 12.3 10.8 14.5 9.6 7.2 1.1 1.0 11.9 14.5 0.6 0.5

Competent Automobiles Neutral 132 - 81 1,040 1,137 3.2 3.1 25.7 28.0 5.1 4.7 0.8 0.7 15.0 14.3 0.1 0.1

Nilkamal Neutral 1,113 - 1,660 1,871 2,031 10.7 10.5 63.2 69.8 17.6 16.0 2.9 2.5 17.6 16.6 0.9 0.8

Visaka Industries Buy 103 144 164 1,086 1,197 9.9 10.3 21.5 28.8 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.4 9.6 11.6 0.4 0.3Transport Corporation of India Neutral 278 - 2,111 2,830 3,350 8.8 9.0 14.4 18.3 19.3 15.2 3.0 2.6 15.4 17.1 0.9 0.8

Elecon Engineering Neutral 57 - 619 1,359 1,482 10.3 13.7 0.8 3.9 70.7 14.6 1.2 1.1 1.6 7.8 0.8 0.7

Surya Roshni Buy 133 201 581 2,992 3,223 8.1 8.4 14.7 18.3 9.0 7.2 0.8 0.8 9.7 11.0 0.5 0.4

MT Educare Neutral 162 - 644 286 366 18.3 17.7 7.7 9.4 20.9 17.3 4.4 3.9 20.2 21.1 2.2 1.6

Radico Khaitan Buy 96 156 1,282 1,517 1,635 12.7 13.4 5.8 7.1 16.6 13.6 1.4 1.3 8.6 9.6 1.3 1.2

Garware Wall Ropes Buy 329 473 719 862 974 11.2 11.2 24.9 29.6 13.2 11.1 2.0 1.7 15.1 15.4 0.8 0.7

Wonderla Holidays Neutral 359 - 2,030 206 308 44.0 43.6 9.0 12.9 39.9 27.9 5.5 4.9 13.7 17.8 9.8 6.5

Linc Pen & Plastics Neutral 183 - 271 340 371 8.3 8.9 10.8 13.2 16.9 13.9 2.7 2.4 16.0 17.1 0.8 0.8

The Byke Hospitality Neutral 154 - 617 222 287 20.5 20.5 5.6 7.6 27.3 20.4 5.1 4.2 18.9 20.8 2.8 2.2

Interglobe Aviation Neutral 809 - 29,146 17,022 21,122 20.7 14.5 63.9 53.7 12.7 15.1 19.0 15.5 149.9 103.2 1.7 1.4Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd Neutral 233 - 4,796 2,692 2,964 17.0 18.6 - 4.7 - 49.1 2.9 2.7 0.2 5.5 2.2 2.0

Navneet Education Neutral 82 - 1,941 998 1,062 24.1 24.0 5.8 6.1 14.2 13.4 3.1 2.8 22.0 20.6 2.0 1.9

Navkar Corporation Buy 166 265 2,366 365 436 38.3 37.5 5.6 5.9 29.4 28.2 1.8 1.7 6.3 6.1 7.3 6.3

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on March 18, 2016


March 21, 2016

Stock Watch

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Market OutlookMarch 21, 2016

Documents

Market Outlook - Angel Backofficeweb.angelbackoffice.com/.../Market_Outlook...2016.pdf · Market Outlook March 21, 2016 Interest rate on Public Provident Fund cut to 8.1% from 8.7%