Market Pulse-February 2016 (Public)

8/19/2019 Market Pulse-February 2016 (Public)

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MARKET PULSEFebruary 2016

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2/26

Survey Methodology

• Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®

• Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.

2


3/26

MARKET CONDITIONS

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4/26

Number of Floor Calls Rising

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

I n d e x

4

SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Market Pulse Survey


5/26

ListingAppointments/Client Presentations Rising

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in yourmarket area this month was …

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

I n d e

x

5



6/26

Open HouseTraffic Rising

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

I n d e x

6



7/26

Auctions on the Rise

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …

0

5

10

15

20

2530

35

40

45

50

Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16

I n d e x

7



8/26

All Cash Purchases Down Slightly in February

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16

I n d e x

8



9/26

Lack of Housing Inventory Remains #1Concern

9

4.3%

5.0%

5.4%

11.0%

11%

14%

41%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Rising Interest Rates

Housing bubble

Lending & financing

Slow down in economic growth

Home prices overinflated

Decline in housing affordability

Lack of Inventory

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?



10/26

REALTORS® Remain MostConcernedAbout Inventory

10

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16

Inventory

Affordability



11/26

REALTORS®Optimistic about MarketConditions in 2016

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

I n d e x

11



12/26

Why REALTORS® Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen

We are at the top of the market.

Election year uncertainty

Fewer buyers and more inventory in highend market

World economy pull-back

Q:Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

12



13/26

LASTTRANSACTION

13


14/26

Most PropertiesSelling Below/AtAsking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

0%10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b - 1 6

Below At Over

14



15/26

Fewer PropertiesSelling Below Asking Price

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b - 1 6

Net % of Properties Selling Below Asking Price

15



16/26

Premium Paid overAsking Price Rising

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

10% 9.8%

11%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

M a r - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

J u n - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

S e p - 1 5

O c t - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

D e c - 1 5

J a n - 1 6

F e b - 1 6

Average

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17/26

% Paid Below Asking Price is Steady

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov

-14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15

Oct-

15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12%-13%-11%-11%-11%-11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11%-10%-12%-13%-13%-13%-12%

17



18/26

3/4 Properties Received MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

61%66%

75%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

18



19/26

Number ofOffers Up

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.6

2.1

3.1

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

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20/26


21/26

Proportion of BuyersWhoWere Renters Rose

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

41%38%

42%

21



22/26

More Sellers Became Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

18%

9.5%

13%

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23/26

Share of First-timeBuyers Up in FebruaryLong RunAverage: 31%

Q:Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

29% 26%

35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45% % First-time Buyers Long Run Average

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24/26

Proportion of International Buyers Down in FebruaryLong RunAverage: 6.0%

Q:Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

7.6%

5.8%

3.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

% International Buyers Long Run Average

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25/26

Top 10Counties

Q: In which county do you live?

25

January 2016 February 2016

1 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 San Diego Riverside

3 Orange San Diego

4 Sacramento Orange5 Riverside Sacramento

6 Contra Costa San Bernardino

7 San Bernardino Santa Clara

8 San Mateo Alameda

9 Placer Contra Costa

10 Sonoma Sonoma



26/26

What are REALTORS® Saying?

Sellers are excited about selling at high prices, but concernedthey won’t be able to afford an upgrade.

I’m afraid we’re headed towards another meltdown.

Inventory is still tight.

Buyers are not paying too much over list.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

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Documents

Market Pulse-February 2016 (Public)