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MARKET UPDATE 2018 PRESENTED BY:

MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

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Page 1: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

MARKET UPDATE 2018PRESENTED BY:

Page 2: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Milwaukee Retail Market

Brian J.

Vanevenhoven, CRX

Page 3: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

▪ Retail Statistics by Submarket

▪ Retail Investments

▪ Who is Expanding / Who is Contracting

▪ The Traditional Mall

▪ Grocery Future

▪ Predictions

Milwaukee Retail Market

Page 4: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Market

• Total Universe: 41.7 MM SF

• Occupied Space: 38.5 MM SF

• Vacant Space: 3.2 MM SF

• Vacancy Rate: 7.7%

8.6%8.4%

7.2%7.4%

7.7%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Vacancy Trend

Page 5: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

North Retail Market

Inventory Available SF Vacant SF Rate

9,035,807 827,371 460,480 5.1%

Page 6: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

West Retail Market

Inventory Available SF Vacant SF Rate

12,493,992 1,135,175 756,437 6.1%

Page 7: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Central Retail Market

Inventory Available SF Vacant SF Rate

8,124,860 1,028,187 874,891 10.8%

Page 8: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

South Retail Market

Inventory Available SF Vacant SF Rate

12,081,335 1,452,415 1,122,913 9.3%

South 84thSouthridgeThe RockS 27th St TargetDrexel SquareIkeaImpact of Foxconn/Racine

Page 9: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Investment Market

Source: Newmark Research

Page 10: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Investment Market

$415.5 Million

20 Grocery-Anchored Shopping Centers

Page 11: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Investment Market

$33.5

Million

$24.3

Million

$17.9

Million

Page 12: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Investment Market

$12

Million

$9.6

Million

$5.5

Million

Page 13: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Investment Market

Page 14: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Milwaukee Big Box Market

Closings Expanding

Page 15: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsMayfair Mall

Page 16: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsMayfair Mall

Page 17: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsBrookfield Square

Page 18: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsBrookfield Square

Page 19: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsSouthridge

Page 20: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsSouthridge

Page 21: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsBayshore

Page 22: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional MallsBayshore

Page 23: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Regional Malls

Source: Newmark Research

Page 24: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Milwaukee Grocery Market

Closings Expanding

Page 25: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Heavyweights

Net Worth:

$125.8 Billion

(Nov. 2018)

Page 26: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Heavyweights

Total

Net Worth:

$174.9 Billion

(May 2018)

Page 27: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Retail Heavyweights

Annual Sales $193 Billion $500 Billion

2017 Online Grocery Sales $2 Billion $1.78 Billion

Free Cash Flow $5.36 Billion $18.29 Billion

Cash $24.96 Billion $7.89 Billion

Page 28: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Milwaukee Retail Market

2018 Predictions – Scott Satula

• Limited Grocer Closures False

• Food & Beverage: Flat True

• Increased Deliveries False

• Increased Integration of “Bricks” and “Clicks” True

Page 29: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Milwaukee Retail Market

2019 Predictions –

• Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly.

• Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with

online retail.

• Amazon is far from done and could make another big

purchase of another brick and mortar store in 2019.

• The traditional mall is changing, but is far from dead.

• Online grocery sales will continue to increase, but total

sales will be far outpaced in Brick and Mortar stores.

Page 30: MARKET UPDATE 2018 - CARW · Milwaukee Retail Market 2019 Predictions – • Vacancy rates will rise, but only slightly. • Brick and Mortar retail will continue to merge with online

Milwaukee Retail Market

Brian J.

Vanevenhoven, CRX