Copyrighted Material

shyI shyprologue

_OhEastisEastandWestisWestandneverthetwainshallmeetTillEarthandSkystandpresentlyatGodrsquosgreatjudgementseatButthereisneitherEastnorWestBordernorBreednorBirthWhentwostrongmenstandfacetofacethorsquotheycomefromtheendsoftheearth

mdashRudyardKiplingldquoTheBalladofEastandWestrdquo1889

ThefutureofWesternpoliticaltheorywillbedecidedoutsidetheWestmdashSunilKhilnaniThe Idea of India2003

For centuries the theme of Kiplingrsquos ldquoBallad of Eastand Westrdquo has woven in and out of Western imaginationslikeabloodshystainedthreadItfirstappearedinthefifthcenshytury BCE when the small and turbulent cityshystates of anshycientGreecefoughtoffthevastPersianEmpiretotheeastNearlytwoandahalfmillennialateritprovidedtherhetorishycalunderpinningfortheAtlanticAllianceAfterthefalloftheBerlinWallitsurfacedinFrancisFukuyamarsquosnotoriousclaimthatWesterndemocracyhadbecometheldquofinalformofhumangovernmentrdquoAtthestartofthetwentyshyfirstcenturyitreverberatedthroughGeorgeWBushrsquosdepictionofthesoshycalledwaronterrorasabattlebetweenthecivilizedandtheuncivilized

1

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

ItisinfactanevershyreadyrhetoricalmaidshyofshyallshyworkIthasbeenpressedintoservicebyinnumerablepoliticalleaderssearchingforperorationsandhaslurkedinthepsychesofavashyrietyofforeignpolicyintellectualsTomentiononlyafewexshyamples theneoconservativeAmericancommentatorRobertKagantheBritishdiplomatandEuropeancivilservantRobertCooperandtheAmericanhistorianandlegaltheoristPhilipBobbittdifferinmuchButtheyhaveallsharedtheassumpshytionthatthereisadistinctidentifiableplacecalledldquotheWestrdquowhoseuniquelypreciousvaluesareunderthreatfromotherquartersoftheglobe1YetinthefluidworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturymdashaworldwheretheAmericanpresidentisthesonofablackKenyanwhostartedasagoatherdwhereIndiaiseasilythemostpopulousdemocracywheretheUSdebttoChinastandsat$800billionandwheretheAtlanticAllianceisrivenwithdoubtsmdashthatassumptionislessaguidetounderstandshyingthanasemanticcomfortblanketAndasoftenhappenstocomfortblanketsithasgrownthreadbarewithuse

Then why do so many people cling to it Why doesKiplingrsquosdrumbeatstillreverberatetodayTheansweristhathisantimonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquoencapsulatesoneofthemost venerable narrativesmdashand most cherished mythsmdashoftheNorthAtlanticworldItsemotionalessencehaschangedvery little in the last twentyshyfive hundred years AncientGreeksfightinginthePersianwarstookitforgrantedthattheystoodforcivilizationagainstbarbarismandforfreedomagainsttyrannyGreeksgovernedthemselvesPersiansweregoverneddespoticallyby tyrannicalkingsAndwherePershysianbarbarianswereslavishtheScythianbarbariansofthesteppesbeyondtheBlackSeawerewildunsettledandunshygovernableBothwereselfshyevidentlyinferiortothecivilizedGreeksChangeafewwordsanditmightbemodernAmerishycansinvadingIraqorfightingtheTaliban

2

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

The Romans inherited these stereotypes from theGreeksandtheearlyChristiansfromtheRomansAftertheriseofIslamtheChurchgavethemanominousnewglossldquoeasternrdquo Muslims were infidels who desecrated the HolyLandanddeservedtobeputtotheswordThemosthorrifyshyingexampleofthismindshysetcamein1099whenChristiancrusaders sacked Muslim Jerusalem and went on a ramshypage that left the streets runningankledeep inblood (Insomeplaces thebloodwas said to havebeenkneeshydeep)In thefifteenthcenturyCEConstantinople thecapitaloftheChristianByzantineEmpirefelltothequintessentiallyldquoeasternrdquoOttomanTurkswhopushedfarintoEuropedurshyingthenexttwocenturiesIntheldquoWestrdquotheTurkslikethePersians before them became bywords for cruelty desposhytism and depravity The great nineteenthshycentury BritishLiberalWEGladstonewasusingawellshyworntropewhenhe accused them of indulging in ldquoabominable and bestiallustsrdquo while suppressing a revolt in Bulgaria2 (A frequentchargeagainsttheTurkswasthattheyhadaloathsomeproshypensity for homosexual rape3 but whether Gladstone wasreferringtothatisnotclear)

MeanwhiletheRenaissanceledldquoWesternrdquoscholarsbackto the ancient Greek texts (Ironically many of them hadbeen preserved and translated by Muslim scholars whosecommentariesonthemeventuallybecamepartoftheEuroshypean philosophical canon) These helped to make the lanshyguage of West versus East freedom versus despotism andcivilizationversusbarbarismpartofthementalfurnitureoftheeducatedclassesalloverEuropeShimmeringontheedgeoftheimaginativeuniverseoftheclassicallyeducatedeliteswhogovernedthecontinentwasavisionofPlatoteachingintheAcademyoftheAthenianParthenonglowingintheatticsunmdashandofthe legendarythreehundredSpartanwarriors

3

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

dyinggloriouslyatThermopylaetoholdoffaPersianarmynumberedintensofthousands4

The longshyterm effects of the Renaissance went widerstill ItspawnedanintellectualandculturalrevolutionthattransformedtheworldEvenatthehighestpointofRomangrandeur theRomanEmpirewasonlyoneofmanyglobalpower centers It dominated western Europe the Balkansand the Mediterranean but it never managed to subjugatetheoncePersianterritorieseastofwhatisnowIraqItwasoutranked in wealth and technological sophistication byIndiaandChinaandafterthefallofRomewesternEuropesank into impoverished and anarchic mediocrity relievedonly by the astonishingly creative and tolerant civilizationofldquoMoorishrdquomdashinotherwordsMuslimandthereforeldquoeastshyernrdquomdashSpain5InthelatesixteenthcenturywhenEuropeanswereburninghereticsatthestakeAkbarthegreatMughalemperorofnorthernIndiausedtoholdinterfaithdialoguesbetween Muslims Hindus Christians Parsees Jews andJains(NotallMughalemperorsemulatedAkbarinthesevshyenteenthcenturytheEmperorAurangzebwasabywordfornarrowshymindedandpuritanicalintolerance)

Aslateas1700thecombinedGDPofIndiaandChinawastwiceaslargeasEuropersquosThankstoamixtureofforcefraudandguilewideningtractsofIndianterritoryfellunderBritishruleinthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcenturybutthenewrulersdidnotimaginethattheywereraciallyorculshyturallysuperiortotheirsubjectsTheywereinIndiatomakemoney not to save souls or disseminate ldquoWesternrdquo valuesMany took Indian concubines and some married Indianwives a few converted to Indian faiths6 Farther east theChinesesawthemselvesasdenizensofaldquomiddlekingdomrdquosufficientuntoitselfandineffablysuperiortovulgarwesternbarbariansin1793afterafamousencounterwithaBritish

4

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

missionledbyLordGeorgeMacartneytheChineseemperorreplied loftily to a British request for trade relations withChinaldquoWehavenevervaluedingeniousarticlesnordowehavetheslightestneedofyourcountryrsquosmanufacturesrdquo7

ButtheindirectimpactoftheRenaissancemdashnotablythescientific revolution a variety of different Enlightenmentsthegrowthofindustrialsocietyandnotleasttheestablishshyment of globeshygirdling European empiresmdashslowly madeEurope the powerhouse and center of the world By 1913Europersquos share of global GDP was more than twice thoseof India and China put together (It was twice that of theUnitedStates)8 TheBritishEmpirecoveredoneshyquarteroftheearthrsquoslandsurfacetheCityofLondonwasthelinchpinoftheworldrsquosfirsttrulyglobalmarketTheRussianEmpiremdashnotfullyEuropeanbutruledfromitsfarshywesterncapitalinEuropeanStPetersburgmdashextendedfromWarsawinthewesttothePacificOceanintheeastFranceruledvastterritoriesinNorthandWestAfricaaswellasmuchofSoutheastAsiaSoftpowermimickedhardpowerFrenchwasthelanguageof diplomacy and culture German of philosophy and EnshyglishofpoliticaleconomyOfthegreattransformative ideshyologiesoftheageliberalismwasaBritishinventionrepublishycanismaFrancoshyItalianoneandsocialismandnationalismFrancoshyGermanones

European intellectuals and statesmen imbibed an evermorepotentversionoftheancientGreekmixtureTh eutilishytariantheoristJamesMillmdashfatherofthemuchgreaterJohnStuartMillmdashwroteasupposedlyauthoritativemultivolumehistory of India without ever visiting the subcontinent orlearninganyofitslanguagesInitheopinedthatldquodeceitandperfidyrdquo were the hallmarks of ldquothe Hindurdquo9 In one of hismostfamouspoemsKiplingcalledontheAmericanstotakeuptheldquowhitemanrsquosburdenrdquointhePhilippineswhichthey

5

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CHAPTER1

had justconquered fromSpainKiplingexplainedwhathemeantwithbrutalclarity

GobindyoursonstoexileToserveyourcaptivesrsquoneedTowaitinheavyharnessOnflutteredfolkandwildmdashYournewshycaughtsullenpeoplesHalfdevilandhalfchild

TheFrenchshybornBritishLiberalHilaireBellocofferedasimshyplerandmorecynicalinterpretationoftheimperialvocation

WhateverhappenswehavegotTheMaximgunandtheyhavenot

Not only was Europe the center of the world butEuropeans took it for granted that their ldquoWesternrdquo valshyues were predestined victors in a Darwinian struggle formoralandideologicalsupremacyEuropewasthehomeofevershyadvancingmodernityandprogressItstrajectorywasamodelforhumanityAndwithinEuropethesamementalshyity prevailed For the French France was the heart of theEuropeanldquowestrdquoTheGermanswereldquoeasternersrdquomdashuncouthat best destructive at worst For the Germans these werequintessentiallyRussiancharacteristicsTheRussiansthemshyselveswereunsurewheretheybelongedldquoWesternizersrdquotacshyitlyconcededthatRussiawasldquoeasternrdquobuthopeditwouldfollow the path taken by progressive enlightened westernEuropeldquoSlavophilesrdquorejectedthematerialismandindividshyualismoftheldquowestrdquocherishedtheancientvisionofMoscowastheThirdRomeandbelievedthatRussiashouldfollowaunique transcendentalpathofherownFor theBritisheventheFrenchwereatleastashadeldquoeasternrdquoldquoWogsrdquoinshysularBritonsusedtosayldquobeginatCalaisrdquo(Wogswereldquowily

6

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

orientalgentlemenrdquo)InsimilarveintheAustrianstatesmanPrinceMetternichfamouslydeclaredthatldquoAsiabeginsattheLandstrasserdquomdashthegreathighwayleadingeastwardfromVishyennaintoHungary

ItwasnotclearwheretheUnitedStatesfitinItwasinshydubitablyWesternLikeRussiaonlymoresoitwasanoffshyshootofEuropeTheurbaneandcultivatedgentlemenwhofoundeditbelongedtothesamecivilizationastheelitesontheEuropeansideoftheAtlanticInthenineteenthcenturymillions of European immigrants fleeing poverty and opshypressionandinspiredbytheAmericandreamoflibertyandopportunity left theirhomes to settle in theUnitedStateswheretheyhelpedtoremakeAmericancivilizationButforother Europeans the United States was more like ScythiathanGreeceAmericandemocracywaslessapromisethanathreatForAmericansthemselvestheUnitedStatesepitoshymizedtheWestItwasselfshygoverningfreedomlovingdemshyocratictrustworthyandprogressiveItwasalsoaprovidenshytial uniquely righteous nation the ldquocity on a hillrdquo the lastbesthopeof theworldrsquospoorandoppressedEuropewithitsbloodthirstywarscorruptaristocraciesandcynicalwileswasasTh omasJeffersonputitldquoafieldofslaughterrdquomdashorasWaltWhitmanthoughtldquoastaleanddrowsylairthelairofslavesrdquo10InhisfarewelladdressattheendofhispresidencyGeorge Washington famously advised his countrymen tosteerclearofEuropeanentanglementsFormorethanacenshyturymostofthemdidso

Europersquos centrality was shortshylived The First World WarmdashthetwentiethcenturyrsquosfirstgreatEuropeancivilwarmdashdealtit a grievous blow The peace conference that followed thewar was held in Paris the most ldquoEuropeanrdquo of all capitalcitiesthepotentatesassembledthereredrewthemapsnot

7

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

ItisinfactanevershyreadyrhetoricalmaidshyofshyallshyworkIthasbeenpressedintoservicebyinnumerablepoliticalleaderssearchingforperorationsandhaslurkedinthepsychesofavashyrietyofforeignpolicyintellectualsTomentiononlyafewexshyamples theneoconservativeAmericancommentatorRobertKagantheBritishdiplomatandEuropeancivilservantRobertCooperandtheAmericanhistorianandlegaltheoristPhilipBobbittdifferinmuchButtheyhaveallsharedtheassumpshytionthatthereisadistinctidentifiableplacecalledldquotheWestrdquowhoseuniquelypreciousvaluesareunderthreatfromotherquartersoftheglobe1YetinthefluidworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturymdashaworldwheretheAmericanpresidentisthesonofablackKenyanwhostartedasagoatherdwhereIndiaiseasilythemostpopulousdemocracywheretheUSdebttoChinastandsat$800billionandwheretheAtlanticAllianceisrivenwithdoubtsmdashthatassumptionislessaguidetounderstandshyingthanasemanticcomfortblanketAndasoftenhappenstocomfortblanketsithasgrownthreadbarewithuse

Then why do so many people cling to it Why doesKiplingrsquosdrumbeatstillreverberatetodayTheansweristhathisantimonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquoencapsulatesoneofthemost venerable narrativesmdashand most cherished mythsmdashoftheNorthAtlanticworldItsemotionalessencehaschangedvery little in the last twentyshyfive hundred years AncientGreeksfightinginthePersianwarstookitforgrantedthattheystoodforcivilizationagainstbarbarismandforfreedomagainsttyrannyGreeksgovernedthemselvesPersiansweregoverneddespoticallyby tyrannicalkingsAndwherePershysianbarbarianswereslavishtheScythianbarbariansofthesteppesbeyondtheBlackSeawerewildunsettledandunshygovernableBothwereselfshyevidentlyinferiortothecivilizedGreeksChangeafewwordsanditmightbemodernAmerishycansinvadingIraqorfightingtheTaliban

2

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

The Romans inherited these stereotypes from theGreeksandtheearlyChristiansfromtheRomansAftertheriseofIslamtheChurchgavethemanominousnewglossldquoeasternrdquo Muslims were infidels who desecrated the HolyLandanddeservedtobeputtotheswordThemosthorrifyshyingexampleofthismindshysetcamein1099whenChristiancrusaders sacked Muslim Jerusalem and went on a ramshypage that left the streets runningankledeep inblood (Insomeplaces thebloodwas said to havebeenkneeshydeep)In thefifteenthcenturyCEConstantinople thecapitaloftheChristianByzantineEmpirefelltothequintessentiallyldquoeasternrdquoOttomanTurkswhopushedfarintoEuropedurshyingthenexttwocenturiesIntheldquoWestrdquotheTurkslikethePersians before them became bywords for cruelty desposhytism and depravity The great nineteenthshycentury BritishLiberalWEGladstonewasusingawellshyworntropewhenhe accused them of indulging in ldquoabominable and bestiallustsrdquo while suppressing a revolt in Bulgaria2 (A frequentchargeagainsttheTurkswasthattheyhadaloathsomeproshypensity for homosexual rape3 but whether Gladstone wasreferringtothatisnotclear)

MeanwhiletheRenaissanceledldquoWesternrdquoscholarsbackto the ancient Greek texts (Ironically many of them hadbeen preserved and translated by Muslim scholars whosecommentariesonthemeventuallybecamepartoftheEuroshypean philosophical canon) These helped to make the lanshyguage of West versus East freedom versus despotism andcivilizationversusbarbarismpartofthementalfurnitureoftheeducatedclassesalloverEuropeShimmeringontheedgeoftheimaginativeuniverseoftheclassicallyeducatedeliteswhogovernedthecontinentwasavisionofPlatoteachingintheAcademyoftheAthenianParthenonglowingintheatticsunmdashandofthe legendarythreehundredSpartanwarriors

3

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

dyinggloriouslyatThermopylaetoholdoffaPersianarmynumberedintensofthousands4

The longshyterm effects of the Renaissance went widerstill ItspawnedanintellectualandculturalrevolutionthattransformedtheworldEvenatthehighestpointofRomangrandeur theRomanEmpirewasonlyoneofmanyglobalpower centers It dominated western Europe the Balkansand the Mediterranean but it never managed to subjugatetheoncePersianterritorieseastofwhatisnowIraqItwasoutranked in wealth and technological sophistication byIndiaandChinaandafterthefallofRomewesternEuropesank into impoverished and anarchic mediocrity relievedonly by the astonishingly creative and tolerant civilizationofldquoMoorishrdquomdashinotherwordsMuslimandthereforeldquoeastshyernrdquomdashSpain5InthelatesixteenthcenturywhenEuropeanswereburninghereticsatthestakeAkbarthegreatMughalemperorofnorthernIndiausedtoholdinterfaithdialoguesbetween Muslims Hindus Christians Parsees Jews andJains(NotallMughalemperorsemulatedAkbarinthesevshyenteenthcenturytheEmperorAurangzebwasabywordfornarrowshymindedandpuritanicalintolerance)

Aslateas1700thecombinedGDPofIndiaandChinawastwiceaslargeasEuropersquosThankstoamixtureofforcefraudandguilewideningtractsofIndianterritoryfellunderBritishruleinthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcenturybutthenewrulersdidnotimaginethattheywereraciallyorculshyturallysuperiortotheirsubjectsTheywereinIndiatomakemoney not to save souls or disseminate ldquoWesternrdquo valuesMany took Indian concubines and some married Indianwives a few converted to Indian faiths6 Farther east theChinesesawthemselvesasdenizensofaldquomiddlekingdomrdquosufficientuntoitselfandineffablysuperiortovulgarwesternbarbariansin1793afterafamousencounterwithaBritish

4

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

missionledbyLordGeorgeMacartneytheChineseemperorreplied loftily to a British request for trade relations withChinaldquoWehavenevervaluedingeniousarticlesnordowehavetheslightestneedofyourcountryrsquosmanufacturesrdquo7

ButtheindirectimpactoftheRenaissancemdashnotablythescientific revolution a variety of different Enlightenmentsthegrowthofindustrialsocietyandnotleasttheestablishshyment of globeshygirdling European empiresmdashslowly madeEurope the powerhouse and center of the world By 1913Europersquos share of global GDP was more than twice thoseof India and China put together (It was twice that of theUnitedStates)8 TheBritishEmpirecoveredoneshyquarteroftheearthrsquoslandsurfacetheCityofLondonwasthelinchpinoftheworldrsquosfirsttrulyglobalmarketTheRussianEmpiremdashnotfullyEuropeanbutruledfromitsfarshywesterncapitalinEuropeanStPetersburgmdashextendedfromWarsawinthewesttothePacificOceanintheeastFranceruledvastterritoriesinNorthandWestAfricaaswellasmuchofSoutheastAsiaSoftpowermimickedhardpowerFrenchwasthelanguageof diplomacy and culture German of philosophy and EnshyglishofpoliticaleconomyOfthegreattransformative ideshyologiesoftheageliberalismwasaBritishinventionrepublishycanismaFrancoshyItalianoneandsocialismandnationalismFrancoshyGermanones

European intellectuals and statesmen imbibed an evermorepotentversionoftheancientGreekmixtureTh eutilishytariantheoristJamesMillmdashfatherofthemuchgreaterJohnStuartMillmdashwroteasupposedlyauthoritativemultivolumehistory of India without ever visiting the subcontinent orlearninganyofitslanguagesInitheopinedthatldquodeceitandperfidyrdquo were the hallmarks of ldquothe Hindurdquo9 In one of hismostfamouspoemsKiplingcalledontheAmericanstotakeuptheldquowhitemanrsquosburdenrdquointhePhilippineswhichthey

5

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

had justconquered fromSpainKiplingexplainedwhathemeantwithbrutalclarity

GobindyoursonstoexileToserveyourcaptivesrsquoneedTowaitinheavyharnessOnflutteredfolkandwildmdashYournewshycaughtsullenpeoplesHalfdevilandhalfchild

TheFrenchshybornBritishLiberalHilaireBellocofferedasimshyplerandmorecynicalinterpretationoftheimperialvocation

WhateverhappenswehavegotTheMaximgunandtheyhavenot

Not only was Europe the center of the world butEuropeans took it for granted that their ldquoWesternrdquo valshyues were predestined victors in a Darwinian struggle formoralandideologicalsupremacyEuropewasthehomeofevershyadvancingmodernityandprogressItstrajectorywasamodelforhumanityAndwithinEuropethesamementalshyity prevailed For the French France was the heart of theEuropeanldquowestrdquoTheGermanswereldquoeasternersrdquomdashuncouthat best destructive at worst For the Germans these werequintessentiallyRussiancharacteristicsTheRussiansthemshyselveswereunsurewheretheybelongedldquoWesternizersrdquotacshyitlyconcededthatRussiawasldquoeasternrdquobuthopeditwouldfollow the path taken by progressive enlightened westernEuropeldquoSlavophilesrdquorejectedthematerialismandindividshyualismoftheldquowestrdquocherishedtheancientvisionofMoscowastheThirdRomeandbelievedthatRussiashouldfollowaunique transcendentalpathofherownFor theBritisheventheFrenchwereatleastashadeldquoeasternrdquoldquoWogsrdquoinshysularBritonsusedtosayldquobeginatCalaisrdquo(Wogswereldquowily

6

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

orientalgentlemenrdquo)InsimilarveintheAustrianstatesmanPrinceMetternichfamouslydeclaredthatldquoAsiabeginsattheLandstrasserdquomdashthegreathighwayleadingeastwardfromVishyennaintoHungary

ItwasnotclearwheretheUnitedStatesfitinItwasinshydubitablyWesternLikeRussiaonlymoresoitwasanoffshyshootofEuropeTheurbaneandcultivatedgentlemenwhofoundeditbelongedtothesamecivilizationastheelitesontheEuropeansideoftheAtlanticInthenineteenthcenturymillions of European immigrants fleeing poverty and opshypressionandinspiredbytheAmericandreamoflibertyandopportunity left theirhomes to settle in theUnitedStateswheretheyhelpedtoremakeAmericancivilizationButforother Europeans the United States was more like ScythiathanGreeceAmericandemocracywaslessapromisethanathreatForAmericansthemselvestheUnitedStatesepitoshymizedtheWestItwasselfshygoverningfreedomlovingdemshyocratictrustworthyandprogressiveItwasalsoaprovidenshytial uniquely righteous nation the ldquocity on a hillrdquo the lastbesthopeof theworldrsquospoorandoppressedEuropewithitsbloodthirstywarscorruptaristocraciesandcynicalwileswasasTh omasJeffersonputitldquoafieldofslaughterrdquomdashorasWaltWhitmanthoughtldquoastaleanddrowsylairthelairofslavesrdquo10InhisfarewelladdressattheendofhispresidencyGeorge Washington famously advised his countrymen tosteerclearofEuropeanentanglementsFormorethanacenshyturymostofthemdidso

Europersquos centrality was shortshylived The First World WarmdashthetwentiethcenturyrsquosfirstgreatEuropeancivilwarmdashdealtit a grievous blow The peace conference that followed thewar was held in Paris the most ldquoEuropeanrdquo of all capitalcitiesthepotentatesassembledthereredrewthemapsnot

7

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

The Romans inherited these stereotypes from theGreeksandtheearlyChristiansfromtheRomansAftertheriseofIslamtheChurchgavethemanominousnewglossldquoeasternrdquo Muslims were infidels who desecrated the HolyLandanddeservedtobeputtotheswordThemosthorrifyshyingexampleofthismindshysetcamein1099whenChristiancrusaders sacked Muslim Jerusalem and went on a ramshypage that left the streets runningankledeep inblood (Insomeplaces thebloodwas said to havebeenkneeshydeep)In thefifteenthcenturyCEConstantinople thecapitaloftheChristianByzantineEmpirefelltothequintessentiallyldquoeasternrdquoOttomanTurkswhopushedfarintoEuropedurshyingthenexttwocenturiesIntheldquoWestrdquotheTurkslikethePersians before them became bywords for cruelty desposhytism and depravity The great nineteenthshycentury BritishLiberalWEGladstonewasusingawellshyworntropewhenhe accused them of indulging in ldquoabominable and bestiallustsrdquo while suppressing a revolt in Bulgaria2 (A frequentchargeagainsttheTurkswasthattheyhadaloathsomeproshypensity for homosexual rape3 but whether Gladstone wasreferringtothatisnotclear)

MeanwhiletheRenaissanceledldquoWesternrdquoscholarsbackto the ancient Greek texts (Ironically many of them hadbeen preserved and translated by Muslim scholars whosecommentariesonthemeventuallybecamepartoftheEuroshypean philosophical canon) These helped to make the lanshyguage of West versus East freedom versus despotism andcivilizationversusbarbarismpartofthementalfurnitureoftheeducatedclassesalloverEuropeShimmeringontheedgeoftheimaginativeuniverseoftheclassicallyeducatedeliteswhogovernedthecontinentwasavisionofPlatoteachingintheAcademyoftheAthenianParthenonglowingintheatticsunmdashandofthe legendarythreehundredSpartanwarriors

3

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

dyinggloriouslyatThermopylaetoholdoffaPersianarmynumberedintensofthousands4

The longshyterm effects of the Renaissance went widerstill ItspawnedanintellectualandculturalrevolutionthattransformedtheworldEvenatthehighestpointofRomangrandeur theRomanEmpirewasonlyoneofmanyglobalpower centers It dominated western Europe the Balkansand the Mediterranean but it never managed to subjugatetheoncePersianterritorieseastofwhatisnowIraqItwasoutranked in wealth and technological sophistication byIndiaandChinaandafterthefallofRomewesternEuropesank into impoverished and anarchic mediocrity relievedonly by the astonishingly creative and tolerant civilizationofldquoMoorishrdquomdashinotherwordsMuslimandthereforeldquoeastshyernrdquomdashSpain5InthelatesixteenthcenturywhenEuropeanswereburninghereticsatthestakeAkbarthegreatMughalemperorofnorthernIndiausedtoholdinterfaithdialoguesbetween Muslims Hindus Christians Parsees Jews andJains(NotallMughalemperorsemulatedAkbarinthesevshyenteenthcenturytheEmperorAurangzebwasabywordfornarrowshymindedandpuritanicalintolerance)

Aslateas1700thecombinedGDPofIndiaandChinawastwiceaslargeasEuropersquosThankstoamixtureofforcefraudandguilewideningtractsofIndianterritoryfellunderBritishruleinthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcenturybutthenewrulersdidnotimaginethattheywereraciallyorculshyturallysuperiortotheirsubjectsTheywereinIndiatomakemoney not to save souls or disseminate ldquoWesternrdquo valuesMany took Indian concubines and some married Indianwives a few converted to Indian faiths6 Farther east theChinesesawthemselvesasdenizensofaldquomiddlekingdomrdquosufficientuntoitselfandineffablysuperiortovulgarwesternbarbariansin1793afterafamousencounterwithaBritish

4

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

missionledbyLordGeorgeMacartneytheChineseemperorreplied loftily to a British request for trade relations withChinaldquoWehavenevervaluedingeniousarticlesnordowehavetheslightestneedofyourcountryrsquosmanufacturesrdquo7

ButtheindirectimpactoftheRenaissancemdashnotablythescientific revolution a variety of different Enlightenmentsthegrowthofindustrialsocietyandnotleasttheestablishshyment of globeshygirdling European empiresmdashslowly madeEurope the powerhouse and center of the world By 1913Europersquos share of global GDP was more than twice thoseof India and China put together (It was twice that of theUnitedStates)8 TheBritishEmpirecoveredoneshyquarteroftheearthrsquoslandsurfacetheCityofLondonwasthelinchpinoftheworldrsquosfirsttrulyglobalmarketTheRussianEmpiremdashnotfullyEuropeanbutruledfromitsfarshywesterncapitalinEuropeanStPetersburgmdashextendedfromWarsawinthewesttothePacificOceanintheeastFranceruledvastterritoriesinNorthandWestAfricaaswellasmuchofSoutheastAsiaSoftpowermimickedhardpowerFrenchwasthelanguageof diplomacy and culture German of philosophy and EnshyglishofpoliticaleconomyOfthegreattransformative ideshyologiesoftheageliberalismwasaBritishinventionrepublishycanismaFrancoshyItalianoneandsocialismandnationalismFrancoshyGermanones

European intellectuals and statesmen imbibed an evermorepotentversionoftheancientGreekmixtureTh eutilishytariantheoristJamesMillmdashfatherofthemuchgreaterJohnStuartMillmdashwroteasupposedlyauthoritativemultivolumehistory of India without ever visiting the subcontinent orlearninganyofitslanguagesInitheopinedthatldquodeceitandperfidyrdquo were the hallmarks of ldquothe Hindurdquo9 In one of hismostfamouspoemsKiplingcalledontheAmericanstotakeuptheldquowhitemanrsquosburdenrdquointhePhilippineswhichthey

5

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

had justconquered fromSpainKiplingexplainedwhathemeantwithbrutalclarity

GobindyoursonstoexileToserveyourcaptivesrsquoneedTowaitinheavyharnessOnflutteredfolkandwildmdashYournewshycaughtsullenpeoplesHalfdevilandhalfchild

TheFrenchshybornBritishLiberalHilaireBellocofferedasimshyplerandmorecynicalinterpretationoftheimperialvocation

WhateverhappenswehavegotTheMaximgunandtheyhavenot

Not only was Europe the center of the world butEuropeans took it for granted that their ldquoWesternrdquo valshyues were predestined victors in a Darwinian struggle formoralandideologicalsupremacyEuropewasthehomeofevershyadvancingmodernityandprogressItstrajectorywasamodelforhumanityAndwithinEuropethesamementalshyity prevailed For the French France was the heart of theEuropeanldquowestrdquoTheGermanswereldquoeasternersrdquomdashuncouthat best destructive at worst For the Germans these werequintessentiallyRussiancharacteristicsTheRussiansthemshyselveswereunsurewheretheybelongedldquoWesternizersrdquotacshyitlyconcededthatRussiawasldquoeasternrdquobuthopeditwouldfollow the path taken by progressive enlightened westernEuropeldquoSlavophilesrdquorejectedthematerialismandindividshyualismoftheldquowestrdquocherishedtheancientvisionofMoscowastheThirdRomeandbelievedthatRussiashouldfollowaunique transcendentalpathofherownFor theBritisheventheFrenchwereatleastashadeldquoeasternrdquoldquoWogsrdquoinshysularBritonsusedtosayldquobeginatCalaisrdquo(Wogswereldquowily

6

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

orientalgentlemenrdquo)InsimilarveintheAustrianstatesmanPrinceMetternichfamouslydeclaredthatldquoAsiabeginsattheLandstrasserdquomdashthegreathighwayleadingeastwardfromVishyennaintoHungary

ItwasnotclearwheretheUnitedStatesfitinItwasinshydubitablyWesternLikeRussiaonlymoresoitwasanoffshyshootofEuropeTheurbaneandcultivatedgentlemenwhofoundeditbelongedtothesamecivilizationastheelitesontheEuropeansideoftheAtlanticInthenineteenthcenturymillions of European immigrants fleeing poverty and opshypressionandinspiredbytheAmericandreamoflibertyandopportunity left theirhomes to settle in theUnitedStateswheretheyhelpedtoremakeAmericancivilizationButforother Europeans the United States was more like ScythiathanGreeceAmericandemocracywaslessapromisethanathreatForAmericansthemselvestheUnitedStatesepitoshymizedtheWestItwasselfshygoverningfreedomlovingdemshyocratictrustworthyandprogressiveItwasalsoaprovidenshytial uniquely righteous nation the ldquocity on a hillrdquo the lastbesthopeof theworldrsquospoorandoppressedEuropewithitsbloodthirstywarscorruptaristocraciesandcynicalwileswasasTh omasJeffersonputitldquoafieldofslaughterrdquomdashorasWaltWhitmanthoughtldquoastaleanddrowsylairthelairofslavesrdquo10InhisfarewelladdressattheendofhispresidencyGeorge Washington famously advised his countrymen tosteerclearofEuropeanentanglementsFormorethanacenshyturymostofthemdidso

Europersquos centrality was shortshylived The First World WarmdashthetwentiethcenturyrsquosfirstgreatEuropeancivilwarmdashdealtit a grievous blow The peace conference that followed thewar was held in Paris the most ldquoEuropeanrdquo of all capitalcitiesthepotentatesassembledthereredrewthemapsnot

7

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

dyinggloriouslyatThermopylaetoholdoffaPersianarmynumberedintensofthousands4

The longshyterm effects of the Renaissance went widerstill ItspawnedanintellectualandculturalrevolutionthattransformedtheworldEvenatthehighestpointofRomangrandeur theRomanEmpirewasonlyoneofmanyglobalpower centers It dominated western Europe the Balkansand the Mediterranean but it never managed to subjugatetheoncePersianterritorieseastofwhatisnowIraqItwasoutranked in wealth and technological sophistication byIndiaandChinaandafterthefallofRomewesternEuropesank into impoverished and anarchic mediocrity relievedonly by the astonishingly creative and tolerant civilizationofldquoMoorishrdquomdashinotherwordsMuslimandthereforeldquoeastshyernrdquomdashSpain5InthelatesixteenthcenturywhenEuropeanswereburninghereticsatthestakeAkbarthegreatMughalemperorofnorthernIndiausedtoholdinterfaithdialoguesbetween Muslims Hindus Christians Parsees Jews andJains(NotallMughalemperorsemulatedAkbarinthesevshyenteenthcenturytheEmperorAurangzebwasabywordfornarrowshymindedandpuritanicalintolerance)

Aslateas1700thecombinedGDPofIndiaandChinawastwiceaslargeasEuropersquosThankstoamixtureofforcefraudandguilewideningtractsofIndianterritoryfellunderBritishruleinthesecondhalfoftheeighteenthcenturybutthenewrulersdidnotimaginethattheywereraciallyorculshyturallysuperiortotheirsubjectsTheywereinIndiatomakemoney not to save souls or disseminate ldquoWesternrdquo valuesMany took Indian concubines and some married Indianwives a few converted to Indian faiths6 Farther east theChinesesawthemselvesasdenizensofaldquomiddlekingdomrdquosufficientuntoitselfandineffablysuperiortovulgarwesternbarbariansin1793afterafamousencounterwithaBritish

4

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

missionledbyLordGeorgeMacartneytheChineseemperorreplied loftily to a British request for trade relations withChinaldquoWehavenevervaluedingeniousarticlesnordowehavetheslightestneedofyourcountryrsquosmanufacturesrdquo7

ButtheindirectimpactoftheRenaissancemdashnotablythescientific revolution a variety of different Enlightenmentsthegrowthofindustrialsocietyandnotleasttheestablishshyment of globeshygirdling European empiresmdashslowly madeEurope the powerhouse and center of the world By 1913Europersquos share of global GDP was more than twice thoseof India and China put together (It was twice that of theUnitedStates)8 TheBritishEmpirecoveredoneshyquarteroftheearthrsquoslandsurfacetheCityofLondonwasthelinchpinoftheworldrsquosfirsttrulyglobalmarketTheRussianEmpiremdashnotfullyEuropeanbutruledfromitsfarshywesterncapitalinEuropeanStPetersburgmdashextendedfromWarsawinthewesttothePacificOceanintheeastFranceruledvastterritoriesinNorthandWestAfricaaswellasmuchofSoutheastAsiaSoftpowermimickedhardpowerFrenchwasthelanguageof diplomacy and culture German of philosophy and EnshyglishofpoliticaleconomyOfthegreattransformative ideshyologiesoftheageliberalismwasaBritishinventionrepublishycanismaFrancoshyItalianoneandsocialismandnationalismFrancoshyGermanones

European intellectuals and statesmen imbibed an evermorepotentversionoftheancientGreekmixtureTh eutilishytariantheoristJamesMillmdashfatherofthemuchgreaterJohnStuartMillmdashwroteasupposedlyauthoritativemultivolumehistory of India without ever visiting the subcontinent orlearninganyofitslanguagesInitheopinedthatldquodeceitandperfidyrdquo were the hallmarks of ldquothe Hindurdquo9 In one of hismostfamouspoemsKiplingcalledontheAmericanstotakeuptheldquowhitemanrsquosburdenrdquointhePhilippineswhichthey

5

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

had justconquered fromSpainKiplingexplainedwhathemeantwithbrutalclarity

GobindyoursonstoexileToserveyourcaptivesrsquoneedTowaitinheavyharnessOnflutteredfolkandwildmdashYournewshycaughtsullenpeoplesHalfdevilandhalfchild

TheFrenchshybornBritishLiberalHilaireBellocofferedasimshyplerandmorecynicalinterpretationoftheimperialvocation

WhateverhappenswehavegotTheMaximgunandtheyhavenot

Not only was Europe the center of the world butEuropeans took it for granted that their ldquoWesternrdquo valshyues were predestined victors in a Darwinian struggle formoralandideologicalsupremacyEuropewasthehomeofevershyadvancingmodernityandprogressItstrajectorywasamodelforhumanityAndwithinEuropethesamementalshyity prevailed For the French France was the heart of theEuropeanldquowestrdquoTheGermanswereldquoeasternersrdquomdashuncouthat best destructive at worst For the Germans these werequintessentiallyRussiancharacteristicsTheRussiansthemshyselveswereunsurewheretheybelongedldquoWesternizersrdquotacshyitlyconcededthatRussiawasldquoeasternrdquobuthopeditwouldfollow the path taken by progressive enlightened westernEuropeldquoSlavophilesrdquorejectedthematerialismandindividshyualismoftheldquowestrdquocherishedtheancientvisionofMoscowastheThirdRomeandbelievedthatRussiashouldfollowaunique transcendentalpathofherownFor theBritisheventheFrenchwereatleastashadeldquoeasternrdquoldquoWogsrdquoinshysularBritonsusedtosayldquobeginatCalaisrdquo(Wogswereldquowily

6

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

orientalgentlemenrdquo)InsimilarveintheAustrianstatesmanPrinceMetternichfamouslydeclaredthatldquoAsiabeginsattheLandstrasserdquomdashthegreathighwayleadingeastwardfromVishyennaintoHungary

ItwasnotclearwheretheUnitedStatesfitinItwasinshydubitablyWesternLikeRussiaonlymoresoitwasanoffshyshootofEuropeTheurbaneandcultivatedgentlemenwhofoundeditbelongedtothesamecivilizationastheelitesontheEuropeansideoftheAtlanticInthenineteenthcenturymillions of European immigrants fleeing poverty and opshypressionandinspiredbytheAmericandreamoflibertyandopportunity left theirhomes to settle in theUnitedStateswheretheyhelpedtoremakeAmericancivilizationButforother Europeans the United States was more like ScythiathanGreeceAmericandemocracywaslessapromisethanathreatForAmericansthemselvestheUnitedStatesepitoshymizedtheWestItwasselfshygoverningfreedomlovingdemshyocratictrustworthyandprogressiveItwasalsoaprovidenshytial uniquely righteous nation the ldquocity on a hillrdquo the lastbesthopeof theworldrsquospoorandoppressedEuropewithitsbloodthirstywarscorruptaristocraciesandcynicalwileswasasTh omasJeffersonputitldquoafieldofslaughterrdquomdashorasWaltWhitmanthoughtldquoastaleanddrowsylairthelairofslavesrdquo10InhisfarewelladdressattheendofhispresidencyGeorge Washington famously advised his countrymen tosteerclearofEuropeanentanglementsFormorethanacenshyturymostofthemdidso

Europersquos centrality was shortshylived The First World WarmdashthetwentiethcenturyrsquosfirstgreatEuropeancivilwarmdashdealtit a grievous blow The peace conference that followed thewar was held in Paris the most ldquoEuropeanrdquo of all capitalcitiesthepotentatesassembledthereredrewthemapsnot

7

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

missionledbyLordGeorgeMacartneytheChineseemperorreplied loftily to a British request for trade relations withChinaldquoWehavenevervaluedingeniousarticlesnordowehavetheslightestneedofyourcountryrsquosmanufacturesrdquo7

ButtheindirectimpactoftheRenaissancemdashnotablythescientific revolution a variety of different Enlightenmentsthegrowthofindustrialsocietyandnotleasttheestablishshyment of globeshygirdling European empiresmdashslowly madeEurope the powerhouse and center of the world By 1913Europersquos share of global GDP was more than twice thoseof India and China put together (It was twice that of theUnitedStates)8 TheBritishEmpirecoveredoneshyquarteroftheearthrsquoslandsurfacetheCityofLondonwasthelinchpinoftheworldrsquosfirsttrulyglobalmarketTheRussianEmpiremdashnotfullyEuropeanbutruledfromitsfarshywesterncapitalinEuropeanStPetersburgmdashextendedfromWarsawinthewesttothePacificOceanintheeastFranceruledvastterritoriesinNorthandWestAfricaaswellasmuchofSoutheastAsiaSoftpowermimickedhardpowerFrenchwasthelanguageof diplomacy and culture German of philosophy and EnshyglishofpoliticaleconomyOfthegreattransformative ideshyologiesoftheageliberalismwasaBritishinventionrepublishycanismaFrancoshyItalianoneandsocialismandnationalismFrancoshyGermanones

European intellectuals and statesmen imbibed an evermorepotentversionoftheancientGreekmixtureTh eutilishytariantheoristJamesMillmdashfatherofthemuchgreaterJohnStuartMillmdashwroteasupposedlyauthoritativemultivolumehistory of India without ever visiting the subcontinent orlearninganyofitslanguagesInitheopinedthatldquodeceitandperfidyrdquo were the hallmarks of ldquothe Hindurdquo9 In one of hismostfamouspoemsKiplingcalledontheAmericanstotakeuptheldquowhitemanrsquosburdenrdquointhePhilippineswhichthey

5

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

had justconquered fromSpainKiplingexplainedwhathemeantwithbrutalclarity

GobindyoursonstoexileToserveyourcaptivesrsquoneedTowaitinheavyharnessOnflutteredfolkandwildmdashYournewshycaughtsullenpeoplesHalfdevilandhalfchild

TheFrenchshybornBritishLiberalHilaireBellocofferedasimshyplerandmorecynicalinterpretationoftheimperialvocation

WhateverhappenswehavegotTheMaximgunandtheyhavenot

Not only was Europe the center of the world butEuropeans took it for granted that their ldquoWesternrdquo valshyues were predestined victors in a Darwinian struggle formoralandideologicalsupremacyEuropewasthehomeofevershyadvancingmodernityandprogressItstrajectorywasamodelforhumanityAndwithinEuropethesamementalshyity prevailed For the French France was the heart of theEuropeanldquowestrdquoTheGermanswereldquoeasternersrdquomdashuncouthat best destructive at worst For the Germans these werequintessentiallyRussiancharacteristicsTheRussiansthemshyselveswereunsurewheretheybelongedldquoWesternizersrdquotacshyitlyconcededthatRussiawasldquoeasternrdquobuthopeditwouldfollow the path taken by progressive enlightened westernEuropeldquoSlavophilesrdquorejectedthematerialismandindividshyualismoftheldquowestrdquocherishedtheancientvisionofMoscowastheThirdRomeandbelievedthatRussiashouldfollowaunique transcendentalpathofherownFor theBritisheventheFrenchwereatleastashadeldquoeasternrdquoldquoWogsrdquoinshysularBritonsusedtosayldquobeginatCalaisrdquo(Wogswereldquowily

6

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

orientalgentlemenrdquo)InsimilarveintheAustrianstatesmanPrinceMetternichfamouslydeclaredthatldquoAsiabeginsattheLandstrasserdquomdashthegreathighwayleadingeastwardfromVishyennaintoHungary

ItwasnotclearwheretheUnitedStatesfitinItwasinshydubitablyWesternLikeRussiaonlymoresoitwasanoffshyshootofEuropeTheurbaneandcultivatedgentlemenwhofoundeditbelongedtothesamecivilizationastheelitesontheEuropeansideoftheAtlanticInthenineteenthcenturymillions of European immigrants fleeing poverty and opshypressionandinspiredbytheAmericandreamoflibertyandopportunity left theirhomes to settle in theUnitedStateswheretheyhelpedtoremakeAmericancivilizationButforother Europeans the United States was more like ScythiathanGreeceAmericandemocracywaslessapromisethanathreatForAmericansthemselvestheUnitedStatesepitoshymizedtheWestItwasselfshygoverningfreedomlovingdemshyocratictrustworthyandprogressiveItwasalsoaprovidenshytial uniquely righteous nation the ldquocity on a hillrdquo the lastbesthopeof theworldrsquospoorandoppressedEuropewithitsbloodthirstywarscorruptaristocraciesandcynicalwileswasasTh omasJeffersonputitldquoafieldofslaughterrdquomdashorasWaltWhitmanthoughtldquoastaleanddrowsylairthelairofslavesrdquo10InhisfarewelladdressattheendofhispresidencyGeorge Washington famously advised his countrymen tosteerclearofEuropeanentanglementsFormorethanacenshyturymostofthemdidso

Europersquos centrality was shortshylived The First World WarmdashthetwentiethcenturyrsquosfirstgreatEuropeancivilwarmdashdealtit a grievous blow The peace conference that followed thewar was held in Paris the most ldquoEuropeanrdquo of all capitalcitiesthepotentatesassembledthereredrewthemapsnot

7

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

had justconquered fromSpainKiplingexplainedwhathemeantwithbrutalclarity

GobindyoursonstoexileToserveyourcaptivesrsquoneedTowaitinheavyharnessOnflutteredfolkandwildmdashYournewshycaughtsullenpeoplesHalfdevilandhalfchild

TheFrenchshybornBritishLiberalHilaireBellocofferedasimshyplerandmorecynicalinterpretationoftheimperialvocation

WhateverhappenswehavegotTheMaximgunandtheyhavenot

Not only was Europe the center of the world butEuropeans took it for granted that their ldquoWesternrdquo valshyues were predestined victors in a Darwinian struggle formoralandideologicalsupremacyEuropewasthehomeofevershyadvancingmodernityandprogressItstrajectorywasamodelforhumanityAndwithinEuropethesamementalshyity prevailed For the French France was the heart of theEuropeanldquowestrdquoTheGermanswereldquoeasternersrdquomdashuncouthat best destructive at worst For the Germans these werequintessentiallyRussiancharacteristicsTheRussiansthemshyselveswereunsurewheretheybelongedldquoWesternizersrdquotacshyitlyconcededthatRussiawasldquoeasternrdquobuthopeditwouldfollow the path taken by progressive enlightened westernEuropeldquoSlavophilesrdquorejectedthematerialismandindividshyualismoftheldquowestrdquocherishedtheancientvisionofMoscowastheThirdRomeandbelievedthatRussiashouldfollowaunique transcendentalpathofherownFor theBritisheventheFrenchwereatleastashadeldquoeasternrdquoldquoWogsrdquoinshysularBritonsusedtosayldquobeginatCalaisrdquo(Wogswereldquowily

6

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

orientalgentlemenrdquo)InsimilarveintheAustrianstatesmanPrinceMetternichfamouslydeclaredthatldquoAsiabeginsattheLandstrasserdquomdashthegreathighwayleadingeastwardfromVishyennaintoHungary

ItwasnotclearwheretheUnitedStatesfitinItwasinshydubitablyWesternLikeRussiaonlymoresoitwasanoffshyshootofEuropeTheurbaneandcultivatedgentlemenwhofoundeditbelongedtothesamecivilizationastheelitesontheEuropeansideoftheAtlanticInthenineteenthcenturymillions of European immigrants fleeing poverty and opshypressionandinspiredbytheAmericandreamoflibertyandopportunity left theirhomes to settle in theUnitedStateswheretheyhelpedtoremakeAmericancivilizationButforother Europeans the United States was more like ScythiathanGreeceAmericandemocracywaslessapromisethanathreatForAmericansthemselvestheUnitedStatesepitoshymizedtheWestItwasselfshygoverningfreedomlovingdemshyocratictrustworthyandprogressiveItwasalsoaprovidenshytial uniquely righteous nation the ldquocity on a hillrdquo the lastbesthopeof theworldrsquospoorandoppressedEuropewithitsbloodthirstywarscorruptaristocraciesandcynicalwileswasasTh omasJeffersonputitldquoafieldofslaughterrdquomdashorasWaltWhitmanthoughtldquoastaleanddrowsylairthelairofslavesrdquo10InhisfarewelladdressattheendofhispresidencyGeorge Washington famously advised his countrymen tosteerclearofEuropeanentanglementsFormorethanacenshyturymostofthemdidso

Europersquos centrality was shortshylived The First World WarmdashthetwentiethcenturyrsquosfirstgreatEuropeancivilwarmdashdealtit a grievous blow The peace conference that followed thewar was held in Paris the most ldquoEuropeanrdquo of all capitalcitiesthepotentatesassembledthereredrewthemapsnot

7

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

orientalgentlemenrdquo)InsimilarveintheAustrianstatesmanPrinceMetternichfamouslydeclaredthatldquoAsiabeginsattheLandstrasserdquomdashthegreathighwayleadingeastwardfromVishyennaintoHungary

ItwasnotclearwheretheUnitedStatesfitinItwasinshydubitablyWesternLikeRussiaonlymoresoitwasanoffshyshootofEuropeTheurbaneandcultivatedgentlemenwhofoundeditbelongedtothesamecivilizationastheelitesontheEuropeansideoftheAtlanticInthenineteenthcenturymillions of European immigrants fleeing poverty and opshypressionandinspiredbytheAmericandreamoflibertyandopportunity left theirhomes to settle in theUnitedStateswheretheyhelpedtoremakeAmericancivilizationButforother Europeans the United States was more like ScythiathanGreeceAmericandemocracywaslessapromisethanathreatForAmericansthemselvestheUnitedStatesepitoshymizedtheWestItwasselfshygoverningfreedomlovingdemshyocratictrustworthyandprogressiveItwasalsoaprovidenshytial uniquely righteous nation the ldquocity on a hillrdquo the lastbesthopeof theworldrsquospoorandoppressedEuropewithitsbloodthirstywarscorruptaristocraciesandcynicalwileswasasTh omasJeffersonputitldquoafieldofslaughterrdquomdashorasWaltWhitmanthoughtldquoastaleanddrowsylairthelairofslavesrdquo10InhisfarewelladdressattheendofhispresidencyGeorge Washington famously advised his countrymen tosteerclearofEuropeanentanglementsFormorethanacenshyturymostofthemdidso

Europersquos centrality was shortshylived The First World WarmdashthetwentiethcenturyrsquosfirstgreatEuropeancivilwarmdashdealtit a grievous blow The peace conference that followed thewar was held in Paris the most ldquoEuropeanrdquo of all capitalcitiesthepotentatesassembledthereredrewthemapsnot

7

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

justofEuropebutoftheMiddleEastlargepartsofAfricaand even parts of east Asia However the chief potentatewasthestiffshyneckedandselfshyrighteousAmericanpresidentWoodrowWilsonHearrivedinParisbathedinthedelusiveauraofasaviordeterminedtoremakethewickedOldWorldinthevirtuousimageoftheNewThoughhisfellowcountryshymen returned to their isolationist ways even before he lefttheWhiteHouse theabsentUnitedStates still loomedonthehorizonofEuropeanpoliticsmdashasymbolofhopeforsomeandaportentofdangerforothers(SodidthatothergreatemblemofideologicalredemptiontheSovietUnion)

The Second World War destroyed Europersquos centralshyityonceandforallIntheimmediateaftermathofthewarmostofcontinentalEuropewasdevastatedandmuchofitwas traumatized The death tolls defy imaginationmdashnearlysix million Jews more than seven million Germans morethantwomillionnonshyJewishPolesmorethanamillionYushygoslavsnearlyamillionRumaniansandmorethantwentymillionSovietcitizens(notallofthemEuropeans)Warsawwas systematically torchedanddynamitedblockbyblockIndustrial Germany was flattened Eight and a half squaremiles of Hamburg were incinerated in a firestorm causedbyAlliedbombingWhenGermany surrendereduncondishytionallyinMay1945muchofBerlinwasaheapofrubble11

DuringthenexttwentyyearsthegreatEuropeanmaritimeempires disappeared Kiplingrsquos ldquofluttered folkrdquo became citishyzensofindependentstatesIndiaoncethebrightestjewelinthe British Crown became a great power in its own rightplayinganimportantroleinworldaffairs

Moresignificantforthe longtermthanthekillingandthe physical destructionmdashmore significant than even thehuge population movements that transformed the ethnicmap of eastern and central Europemdashwas a seismic shift in

8

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thebalanceofEuropeanpowerandinEuropersquospositionintheglobalorderThewarhadstarted inEurope forEuroshypeanmotivesdrivingEuropeanstatesButitwasalsolostbyEuropeincludingthenominallyvictoriousBritainTh etruewinnerswereEuropersquostwinoffshootsmdashtheSovietUnionand(stillmore)theUnitedStatesThewarrsquosmostobviousresultwastocarrybothtwinsfromtheperipheryofthecontinenttoitsheartTheensuingcoldwarbetweenthemshapeditshistoryfornearlyhalfacenturyNotonlyhadEuropeceasedtobethecenteroftheworldithadbecomethecockpitofaworldwidestruggleforsupremacybetweentworivalvisionsofhumandestinyand thegood society incarnatedby twononshyEuropean superpowers which towered over their Eushyropeanallies

But the old rhetoric of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquo which hadhelpedtostructureEuropeansrsquoselfshyunderstandingsincethedaysofHerodotusandPericlessurvivedandprosperedForldquowesternersrdquoWashingtonDCbecamethenewRomeifnotquite the new Athens The Soviet Union Ronald Reaganrsquosldquoevil empirerdquo became a cross between Persia and ScythiaTheOdershyNeisselinethatdividedtotalitarianEasternEuropefromdemocraticWesternEuropewasthenewBosphorus

The mental map that resulted was curious to put itmildlyTheJapanesehoststolargeAmericanbasesbecamehonorarywesternersAftertheCommunistPartytookpowerinmainlandChinatheonceshyChineseislandofTaiwanthenknowntomostwesternersasFormosaandruledbythenotnotablydemocraticGuomindangpartyofChiangshyKaishyshekbecameanotheroutpostoftheldquoWestrdquoasdidSouthKorea(ItisfairtosaythatJapanSouthKoreaandTaiwanare westofCalifornia)TurkeyviscerallyantishyRussiansincethedaysofCatherinetheGreatandassuchastaunchAmericanallywasnowmoreldquoWesternrdquo than theCommunist satellitesof

9

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

CzechoslovakiaandPolandwhosecapitalsliefartothewestof Istanbul to say nothing of Ankara the Turkish capitalFidel Castrorsquos Cuba was an ldquoeasternrdquo outpost on Americarsquosdoorstep Pesky wouldshybe neutrals like Titorsquos YugoslaviaNasserrsquosEgyptandNehrursquosIndiainhabitedacartographiclimbo

But these curiosities hardly mattered What did matshyterwasthattherewasapassablefitbetweentherealitiesofpostwarEuropeandancientnarrativesofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquoEuropeeastoftheironcurtainwasnotashomogeneousasldquoWesternrdquocoldwarriorsimaginedNorwasitasimmunetotheculturaland intellectualshifts that tookplace inNorthAmerica and nonshyCommunist Europe The 1968 ldquoPraguespringrdquo that seemed for a magical moment to portend ahumane and liberal form of Communism in CzechoslovashykiahadsomethingincommonwiththestudentrevoltsthatsweptthroughwesterncampusesfromCaliforniatoBerlinButwhenallthecaveatshavebeenenteredthebruterealityisthatSovietpowerandtheSovietsystemreignedthroughouttheCommunistsatellitesofEasternEuropewithonlytrivialvariationsTheywereallgraygrimgrubbyoneshypartystateshoneycombedwithinformersandlumberedwithhopelesslyinefficientandunproductivecommandeconomiesInallofthemcensorshipwasomnipresentandheresyshyhuntingenshydemicEverywherecivilassociationswerecolonizedbythepartyshystateeverywhereacultureofmistrustprevailed

InnonshyCommunistWesternEuropethingsweremorecomplicatedUntilwellintothe1980stheCommunistparshyties of France and Italy enjoyed substantial mass supportCommunismhadnopoliticalpurchaseintheGermanFedshyeralRepublicandthoughCommunistshadsomeinfluenceincertainBritishtradeunionstheBritishCommunistPartywasanegligibleforceinparliamentarypoliticsTh epolitical

10

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

economiesofWesternEuropewerevariegatedtooTh eneoshycorporatist ldquosocialmarketrdquoeconomiesof theGermanFedshyeralRepublicanditssmallerwesternneighborswereheavilyinfluencedbyCatholicsocialteachingInFranceatraditionofstatisteconomicinterventiondatingfromtheseventeenthcentury spawned a distinctively French form of indicativeplanningunderpinnedbyalargenationalizedsectorBritainalso had a large nationalized sector but repeated attemptstomimicFrenchshystyleplanningcollapsedinfailureandreshycrimination

However these were variations on a set of commonthemes Four of them stood out Th e first and most obvishyous was that the security of the entire region was undershypinnedbyAmericanpoweraboveallbyAmericannuclearweaponsmdashenabling Europeans to enjoy a moral free ridebycourtesyoftheAmericanairforceThesecondwasthatpartlybecauseAmericanMarshallaidintheearlypostwaryears facilitated an astonishing spurt of economic growththatcontinuedlongafterAmericanaidceasedtoflow theregionwassavedforcapitalismRapidgrowthtooktheedgeoffdistributionalconflictsandgaveorganizedlaborastakeinthesuccessofthecapitalistorderResourceswerelargelyallocatedthroughthemarketandmostof themwereprishyvatelyownedStateinterventionwasubiquitousbutitwasdesignedtomakecapitalismworkbetternottosupersedeit Generous welfare states mitigated the rigors of marketcompetitionThetamedcapitalismthatresultedwouldhavebeenalmostunrecognizabletothenineteenthshycenturypalashydinsoflaissezshyfairebutitwascapitalismallthesame

Thirdly Western Europe was overwhelmingly demoshycratic from the late1940sonward anduniversally soafterthedemiseofFascistregimesinSpainPortugalandGreecein theearly1980sLastly thedoublevictoryofdemocracy

11

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

andtamedcapitalismwasbothchildandparentofoneofthemosthopefulpoliticalprojectsofthetwentiethcenturymdashthedeliberate construction of a supranational European Comshymunitybasedonlawratherthanforceinwhichancientenshyemiescouldlivetogetherinpeace

Thatwastheworldinwhichtodayrsquospolicymakersandintellectuals grew up and whose contours they took forgrantedItwasagoodworldfortheelitesandpeoplesoftheldquoWestrdquoEuropeenjoyedalongerperiodofpeacethanatanytime since the end of the Roman Empire Th roughout theldquoWestrdquoincludingitsAsiatichonorarymemberslivingstanshydardswerehigherthantheyhadeverbeenandseemedsettoriseindefinitelyDespitethecoldwaraplethoraofsmallhotwarsandasavagemediumshysizedhotwarinVietnamitwasa remarkably stable world Once the turbulent and unpreshydictableSovietleaderNikitaKhrushchevhadleftthescenebothsuperpowerstacitlyagreedthatintheEuropeancockshypitthefrontierbetweenthecapitalistWestandtheCommushynistEastshouldbeinviolateItwaspermissibletointerveneinperipheralconflictsintheThirdWorldItwasnotpermisshysibletotrytochangethebalanceofEuropeanpower

As a result ldquowesternrdquo policy makers and publics knewwheretheywereMoreimportanttheyknewwhotheywereTheydidnotalwaysagreeabouttheirapproachtotheldquoEastrdquoSomewanted toconfront itothers soughtdeacutetenteButonfundamentals they were at one They knew that they beshylonged to the ldquoWestrdquo and that as ldquowesternersrdquo they werefreedemocraticprogressivetolerantandprosperousTh eythoughttheyhadlearnedhowtoretainthegoodincapitalshyismwhilejettisoningthebadTheysawthemselvesaschilshydrenoftheEnlightenmentchampionsoftheOpenSocietyForthemtherhetoricofldquoWestrdquoandldquoEastrdquowasasnaturalasbreathingForobvious reasons ldquoeasternrdquoelitesdidnotuse

12

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

thatrhetoricitimpliedinferioritytotheldquoWestrdquoButtheytootookitforgrantedthattheirworldwasdifferentfromthatofthe ldquoWestrdquoAnd like their counterparts in the ldquoWestrdquo theysoughttomanagetheprimordialconflictbetweenthetwonottoenditortranscenditmdashandstilllesstowinit

ThentheearthshookThegreatupheavalsof1989whichsawthefalloftheBerlinWallandof1991whentheSovietUnionimplodeddestroyedthepostwarworldforeverFormorethanseventyyearsCommunismhadbeenapracticeaswellasadoctrineCommunistideologyhadchallengedthedemocraticideologiesoftheldquoWestrdquoCommunistpracshyticehadofferedanalternativeworkingmodelofsocialorshyganizationmdashnotjustinanidealworldyettobebornbutinthequotidianrealityofeverydaylifeItwasnotaparticushylarlyattractivealternative(atleastnottoldquowesternersrdquo)butitdidatleastexistandbyexistingitprovedthatthecapishytalistorderwasnottheonlypossibleoneTh espectacularcollapseofCommunismthroughoutthehugeterritoryonceruledbytheSovietUnionanditssatellitesstoodthatproofonitshead

SuddenlythealternativehaddisappearedmdashnotbecauseofforeigninvasionordomesticrevoltbutbecauseitscustoshydianshadceasedtobelieveinitTheobviousconclusionwasthatithadalwaysbeenachimeramdashthattheMarxistshyLeninistGod had been doomed to fail from the start Th e Chinesestory was less dramatic but it had a similar deacutenouementUnder a nominally Communist party the Chinese econshyomy moved ever more confidently toward a strange kindofquasishycapitalismrunbyameritocraticbutunaccountableandauthoritarianeliteCapitalismwasnotjusttriumphantfor thefirst timesince theBolshevikRevolution itwasefshyfectivelyunchallenged

13

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

In Margaret Thatcherrsquos Britain and Ronald ReaganrsquosAmerica a restless dynamic new version of the untamedcapitalism of the nineteenth century had already startedto edge aside the tamed capitalism of the postwar periodIn the1990scapitalismrsquosuntamingforgedaheadoneverycontinent and in virtually every country From MurmansktoMumbaiandfromNewYorktoNovosibirskanewecoshynomicorderwasonthemarchAneworthodoxymdashthattherationalpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestisthetruesourceofeconomicefficiencythattherisingtideofwealthproducedbyundistortedmarketsliftsallboatsthatmarketsshouldbesetfreetoregulatethemselvesinsteadofbeingregulatedbystate authorities and that government intervention in theeconomydoesmoreharmthangoodmdashtooktheplaceoftheorthodoxiesof thepostwarperiodGrowthburgeoned inshyequality soared and competition intensified while capitalvaultedovernationalfrontiersTheuniversalvictoryofcapishytalismwasmirroredintheglobalsupremacyoftheUnitedStatestheworldrsquosonlyremainingsuperpowerThecoldwarwasoveritseemedandtheldquoWestrdquohadwon

Or had it Militarily the United States unquestionablytoweredovertherestoftheworldItspentasmuchondeshyfenseasthenextfifteencountriescombinedAmericanbasesspanned the globe The American economy was easily thebiggest national economy in the world It was more thanthreetimesaslargeasJapanrsquosandmorethanfourtimesthatofGermanymdashthoughthetotalGDPof theldquoEurozonerdquo thefifteenshynationsingleshycurrencyareaattheheartoftheEuroshypeanUnionranitcloseTherewastalkofanewAmericanldquoempirerdquo reminiscent of the British Empire of old days12

Someinsistedthattheglobalmarkettheheartandsoulofthe new capitalist order needed a global hegemon to proshytectitandthattheonlyconceivablehegemonwastheUnited

14

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

StatesThehiddenhandofthemarketasTh omasFriedmanwrote would not work without ldquoa hidden fistrdquo13 A relatedargumentwasthatonlyAmericanpowercouldprotecttheweakandpunish thewicked that asRobertKaganput ittheUnitedStateswastheworldrsquosldquosheriffrdquo(Europeheaddedwas its ldquosaloon keeperrdquo)14 A simpler view was that havingbecometheworldrsquosonlysuperpowertheUnitedStateswasdeterminedtostaythatwaythatAmericasimplywasagreatpowerandwasbehavingasgreatpowersalwaysdo

AtfirsthearingthelanguageseemedconfidentYettherewasadistinctundertoneofuneaseandsincethehorrorof911uneasehasbeentingedincreasinglywithanxietyandattimeswithdreadEvidentlytheendofthecoldwarhadnot procured immunity from danger after all Despite herhugemilitaryarsenalAmericawasvulnerablethecityonahillnolongerenjoyeddivineprotectionRoguestatesfailedstatesandterroristnetworksposedmorealarmingbecauselesspredictable threats toAmericansecurity thanhad thecautious almost comatose postshyKhrushchev Soviet leadershyshipTheBushadministrationrsquosanswerwasanewstrategicdoctrinebasedonanexplicitprincipleofldquopreemptionrdquoorpreventivewarItwasnotenoughtowaittobeattackedandthen fight back It was necessary to take ldquoanticipatory acshytionrdquomdashifneedbeldquopreemptivelyrdquoandunilaterally15

ButdespitethemachoswaggeringofitschampionsthenewdoctrinewasasignofinsecuritynotofconfidenceTh emost spectacular example of ldquoanticipatory actionrdquo namelytheIraqWarcouldhardlyhavebeenaworseadvertisementforitItappalledmanyAmericanalliesdraggedonfarlonshygerthanitsarchitectshadexpectedbecameincreasinglyunshypopularwiththeAmericanpeopleandtocapitallturnedouttohavebeenbasedonamixtureofdeliberatedeceitandfaulty intelligence When George W Bush finally stepped

15

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

downthepreemptiondoctrineandhisownreputationwereboth inruinsAfterhisdeparture revelations thatCIAofshyficershadroutinelytorturedAlQaedasuspectsleftanevenuglierstainonhismdashandAmericarsquosmdashreputationMeanwhileBarack Obama Bushrsquos successor made a breathtaking reshyversalofrhetoricandpostureandabandonedmachoswagshygeringinfavorofmodestyflexibilityandinclusionWhenhe was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 the worldrejoiced The era of the gunshytoting global sheriff was overAmericaitseemedhadrejoinedthehumanrace

ObamawasnotjustAmericarsquosfirstblackpresidentHewasalsothefirstgloballeadertobelongemotionallyandexisshytentiallytothediverseworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturymdashtoaworldwhosemostobvious featureswere theldquoriseof therestrdquoandayawninggapbetweentheolddepictionofglobalpower and a new reality16 While the new capitalism wasrolling on and ldquowesternrdquo consumers and financiers werelivinghighonthehogaquietrevolutionhadbeguntoshiftthe balance of the global economy away from the ldquoWestrdquoandtowardtheldquoEastrdquoandpartsoftheSouthTh esoshycalledBRICSmdashBrazil Russia India and Chinamdashwere leveringthemselvesup theglobal technologicalandeconomic ladshydermuchastheUnitedStatesandGermanyhaddoneinthelatenineteenthandearlytwentiethcenturies

Commentatorsdidnotallagreeabouttheimplicationsbut in late2008a remarkable reportby theAmericanNashytional Intelligence Council summed up what had becomeaconsensusviewItforecastthatby2025theworldrsquosthreelargest economies would be the United States China andIndiainthatorderldquoIntermsofsizespeedanddirectionalflowrdquo it declared ldquothe global shift in relative wealth andpowermdashroughlyfromWesttoEastmdashiswithoutprecedentin

16

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

modernhistoryrdquoChinaandIndialdquowererestoringtheposishytionstheyheldtwocenturiesagoTheyearsaround2025willbecharacterisedbythedualidentityoftheseAsiangishyantsrdquo17Apeculiarlyvividexampleofwhatthenewconfigushyrationofglobalpowerislikelytomeaninpracticecameatthe UN climate change conference in Copenhagen in Deshycember2009whentheChinesepremiertreatedtheUnitedStatesmdashandforthatmattermanyoftheworldrsquospoorestandmostexposednationsmdashwithamixtureofloftydisdainandbrutishcontempt

AstheIntelligenceCouncilrsquosreportwasatpainstopointouttheshiftofpowerwasrelativenotabsoluteInabsolutetermstheUnitedStatesisstillmdashandissettoremainmdashveryrichandverypowerfulRelativelyhoweveritisindeclinemdasheconomicallymostobviouslybutpoliticallyaswellObamarsquosdecency intelligence and grace have masked that declinebuttheyhavenoteffacedtheforcesbehinditNotonlydidObamafailtogethiswayatCopenhagenbutbythesumshymerof2010more thanayear intohispresidencyhehadalsofailedtobreakthelogjamblockingpeacebetweenIsraelandPalestineoneofhiscentralobjectivesAndasBritaindiscoveredattheturnofthenineteenthandtwentiethcentushyrieswhenGermanyandtheUnitedStateschallengedheroldeconomicsupremacy relativedecline tends tobeapainfulanddisorientatingprocessIt isonethingtobetheworldrsquosunchallenged topdoganother towatchnewcomers to thekennelsyappingatyourheels

Theshatteringglobaleconomiccrisisthatbeganinthesummerof2007whentheAmericaninvestmentbankBearStearnsannouncedseriouslossesonitshedgefundsandthatfelled theWallStreetgiantLehmanBrothers inSeptember2008hasgiventheexperienceaharsherandmorealarmingedgeThelordsofcreationintheinvestmentbanksandhedge

17

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

fundsofWallStreetandtheCityofLondonwererevealednotjustasgreedy(thatwashardlyasurprise)butascredushylous mendacious and sometimes fraudulent Th e publicauthoritiesthatweresupposedtoregulatethemturnedouttohavebeencomplacentandnegligentAbovealltheecoshynomictheorythatjustifiedminimalregulationturnedouttohavebeenhopelesslyflawedasAlanGreenspanchairmanoftheUSFederalReservefrom1987to2006admittedatacongressionalhearing18

SupposedlyselfshyregulatingmarketshadfosteredaswellshyingorgyofrisktakingthatculminatedinthenearcollapseoftheworldrsquosfinancialsystemwhenthebubbleburstTh eseducshytivedoctrinethattheunhinderedpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestholdsthekeytoprosperityandgrowthhadhelpedtoprocurethemostdevastatingfallinoutputandemploymentforeightyyearsTherationaleconomicactorthateconomistsputatthecenteroftheirconceptualuniversehadturnedouttobeachimeraTh efinancialservicessectorhadbeendrivenbythewildstampedesofwhatGeorgeSorostheuncrownedkingofhedgefundmanagerscalledldquotheelectronicherdrdquo19

JMKeynesrsquosmordantwarningagainstallowingcapital inshyvestmenttobecomeldquothebyshyproductofacasinordquo20hadturnedouttobeaspertinentinthe2000sasithadbeeninthe1930sAndhorrorofhorrorsitbecameclearthatstateinterventiononascaleunprecedentedinpeacetimemdashincludingaplethoraof bank nationalizations that would have been unthinkablebeforethecrashmdashofferedtheonlyhopeofrescuingthemarshyketeconomyfromitself

Therootsofthecrisisweredeepandtheimplicationsarestill indebateButonethingisclearItwasaboveallacrisisofthenewlyuntamedcapitalismofthecapitalismthathademergedinthe1980sandtriumphedinthe1990sItwasnotconfinedtothetwopacemakerstheUnitedStates

18

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

and Britain Tiny Iceland was overwhelmed mighty GershymanywasbadlyshakenButwhenallthequalificationshavebeenmadethereisnodoubtthattheeconomicparadigmthatcollapsedsospectacularlywasmade inAmericanotfornothingwas itknownas theldquoWashingtonconsensusrdquoTheheadymixtureofgreedcredulityandselfshydestructiveingenuitythathadloadedAmericanbankswithtoxicassetsand theAmericaneconomywithamountainofdebthadplenty of European counterparts the discovery that Gershyman banks had behaved as greedily and irresponsibly astheirAmericanandBritishcounterpartsmadenonsenseofthesmugnotionmuchtoutedontheEuropeanmainlandthataspecialldquoRhenishrdquocapitalismwasatoneandthesametimemorekindlylessselfishandmoresuccessfulthantheshortshytermist and hypershyindividualistic AngloshyAmericanmodel21

ButthefeverwasmoreflagrantintheUnitedStates(andstillmoresoinBritain)thaninmainlandEuropeForyearsAmericanandBritishcommentatorshadberatedEuropeforfailingtoadopttheAmericanmodelwhileinternationalinshystitutionssuchastheIMFandtheWorldBankhadlostnoopportunitytopressureweakernationstoadoptitNowitscollapsehaddraggedtherestoftheworlddownwithit

Th e full repercussions will not be known for sometimeButitisalreadyclearthattheassumptionsenshrinedinKiplingrsquosldquoBalladofEastandWestrdquohavebeenturnedinshysideoutAttheveryheartoftheWestshyEastantimonyofthelast twentyshyfive hundred years lay the proposition that theldquoWestrdquowasparexcellencethehomeofreasonefficiencyandevolutionarysuccessthatanenlightenedmodernrationaland progressive ldquoWestrdquo confronted an unenlightened andbackward ldquoEastrdquo These assumptions had always been pashytronizingandmisleadingTheyarenowmanifestlyabsurd

19

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

Th efinancialcrisisandallthatflowedfromitshowedthatmdashat least in the narrow terms of economic growth that theAmericanmodelhaditselfprivilegedmdashldquoeasternrdquoChinaandIndiaweremoreefficientmoresuccessfulandmorerationalthan the supremelyldquowesternrdquoUnitedStatesWhileAmerishycans splurged the Chinese had saved indeed without thefloodofChinesesavingsthatpouredintotheUnitedStatesAmericansplurgingwouldhavebeenimpossibleAndIndiahad managed to combine economic success with a pulsatshyingandrambunctioushomegrowndemocracyasvigorousasAmericarsquosown

ThedynamismoftheAmericaneconomyandthecapshytivating resilience and openness of American society hadnot suddenlydisappearedbut theuniquemoralauthoritythatAmericahadenjoyedastheapparentepitomeofratioshynalityandprogressandwhichhadunderpinnedherglobalhegemonyhadsufferedaterribleblowAstheHongKongproperty tycoon Ronnie Chan puts it the world is in thethroesofasubtleprocessofldquorebalancingrdquomoralauthorityldquoThesystemthatthewesttoutedassuperiorrdquohewritesldquohasfailedWhyshoulddevelopingcountriesblindly follow itsmodelnowrdquo22

Political authority is ldquorebalancingrdquo too Madeleine Alshybright Bill Clintonrsquos secretary of state once declared thattheUnitedStateswasldquotheindispensablenationrdquoItisasafebetthatfortheforeseeablefutureitwillbean indispensshyablenationButitwillneveragainbealoneinitseminenceldquoEasternrdquo China and India will be indispensable too thatwasoneofthelessonsofthefailureoftheCopenhagenclishymatechangeconferenceTheymaywellbejoinedbyldquosouthshyernrdquoBrazilandconceivablybyldquoeasternrdquoRussiaaswellTh eobvious question for the United States as the pluralistic

20

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

unstableconflictedworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturytakesshapeisFareedZakariarsquosldquoCanWashingtonadjustandadapttoaworldinwhichothershavemovedupCanitthriveinaworlditcannotdominaterdquo23ButthereisalsoalessobshyviousandmorepainfulquestionCanAmericanscometotermswiththeendofAmericanexceptionalismCantheyabandonthemythofAmericaas thecityonahillwithauniqueredemptivemessageformankindAndcantheydoallthiswithoutdamagingthepatinaofmagicthatstillclingstotheircountry

Thequestions forAmericaarehardenoughbut thequesshytionsforEuropemdashtheotherhalfofthetraditionalldquoWestrdquomdashare far harder The familiar narrative of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquohadbeenEuropean longbefore itcrossed theAtlantic theissuesraisedbytheglobaltransformationthatisnowmakingnonsenseofitgototheheartofEuropersquosunderstandingofitselfaswellasofitsplaceintheworldForthearchitectsoftheEuropeanprojectEuropewasnotjustpartoftheldquoWestrdquoItwastheepitomeof theldquoWestrdquo theheartandsoulof thecivilizationthathadfirstfloweredinancientGreecePartofthepointoftheprojectwastoenableEuropetorecoveritsrightfulplaceasthechiefcustodianofldquowesternrdquovalues

AtthesametimeldquowesternrdquoEuropecouldcountonthesupport of a ldquowesternrdquo superpower patron when the goinggot rough the assumption that the patron will always beavailabletopullEuropeanchestnutsoutofthefireisstillpartofthemindshysetofEuropersquosleadersparticularlyinthecontishynentrsquoseasternmarchesButtheemergingnewglobalsystemhasnoplaceforsuchapatronTheObamaadministrationisnotantishyEuropeanastheneoconsintheBushadministrashytionusedtobeHoweverithasnewandbiggerfishtofry

21

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

TheBritishcommentatorandhistorianTimothyGartonAshputs itwellObamahewriteshasldquonosentimentalattachshymenttotheoldcontinentHisquestiontoEuropeislsquowhatcanyoudo forus todayrsquordquo24And thoughGartonAshdoesnotsaysotheanswerispatentlyldquonotmuchrdquo

MoreprobingquestionsfollowCanEuroperecovertheeacutelan and political creativity that healed the wounds of thetwogreatEuropeancivilwarsof the last centuryand thenextendedthescopeofdemocraticruletotheformerSovietsatellitesinEastCentralEuropeCanitovercomeitsinternalcontradictionsmdashbetweenEuropeanelitesandtheirpeoplesbetweendemocraticpromiseandtechnocraticrealityCanitdevelopinstitutionswiththelegitimacywillandcapacitytoenableittojointheUnitedStatesChinaandIndiaasaglobalpowerOrisitdoomedtoremainaneconomicgiantandapoliticalpygmymdashrichfatvulnerableandincreasinglyirrelevant to thenewworldthat is takingshapebeyonditsfrontiers

ThecurrentomensarenotencouragingTheuniqueEushyropeanexperimentinconsensualsupranationalgovernmenthasbeenastonishinglysuccessfulOldenemieshave learnedtolivetogetherifnotinferventamitythenatleastinpeaceGuaranteedhumanrightsand the ruleof lawnowprevailalbeitwithoccasionalblemishesrightacrossthecontinentthat spawned one of the most evil regimes in human hisshytorylessthana lifetimeagoThetroubleisthattimeshavechangedThegreatepochalsuccessesoftheEuropeanprojshyecttookplacefirstinthebinaryworldofthecoldwarandtheninthemonistworldofunchallengedAmericanprimacythatfollowedinotherwords inanagewhentheoldantishymonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquowasvirtuallyunchallengedButthatageisoverIntodayrsquosconflictedandshiftingworldthe

22

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

onlydubiouslylegitimategoverninginstitutionsbequeathedbytheUnionrsquosfoundingfathersmdashandstillmoretheclusterofassumptionsandhabitsthathasgrownuparoundthemmdasharenolongerfitforthevastlymoredauntingtrialstheyface

It tookeightyearsmdashfrom2001 to2009mdashtodeviseandcarry throughasetofsignificantbuthardlyearthshyshattershyinginstitutionalreformsdesignedtomakeUniondecisionmakingmoreefficientandsomewhatmoretransparentTh eeconomiccrisisof2007ndash10hasshoneabrightandcruellighton a design flaw in the Eurozone As the Irish former EUcommissioner Peter Sutherland caustically puts it its sysshytem of governance is ldquointellectually and politically schizoshyphrenicrdquo25 A European Central Bank controls monetarypolicy but member governments still control fiscal policyAsaresulttheweakereconomiesoftheEurozonearecaughtin a vice They cannot let their currencies float downwardinresponsetotheglobalcrisisasBritaindidtheyhavenocurrenciesoftheirownButthereisnosupranationalbudgettohelpthemmitigatethedeflationaryconsequencesofthecrisisasthereareinfullyfledgedfederationsAndtocapitallEuropewassidelinedattheCopenhagenclimatechangeconference Th ough European politicians frequently talkabouttheshiftofeconomicandpoliticalpowerfromwesttoeastthereislittlesignthattheyorthecitizenstheyrepresenthave thoughtseriouslyabout its implications forEuropeanpolitical economies or the Unionrsquos curious constitution InBrusselsandthecapitalsofthememberstatesthedominantthemeisldquobusinessasusualrdquooratleastldquobusinessasusualassoonaswecangetbacktoitrdquo

SoberreflectionontheimplicationsofthechangingconshyfigurationofglobalpowerhasbeendrownedoutbyachorusofselfshycongratulationManyholdthattheEuropeanUnionrsquos

23

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

fundsofWallStreetandtheCityofLondonwererevealednotjustasgreedy(thatwashardlyasurprise)butascredushylous mendacious and sometimes fraudulent Th e publicauthoritiesthatweresupposedtoregulatethemturnedouttohavebeencomplacentandnegligentAbovealltheecoshynomictheorythatjustifiedminimalregulationturnedouttohavebeenhopelesslyflawedasAlanGreenspanchairmanoftheUSFederalReservefrom1987to2006admittedatacongressionalhearing18

SupposedlyselfshyregulatingmarketshadfosteredaswellshyingorgyofrisktakingthatculminatedinthenearcollapseoftheworldrsquosfinancialsystemwhenthebubbleburstTh eseducshytivedoctrinethattheunhinderedpursuitofindividualselfshyinterestholdsthekeytoprosperityandgrowthhadhelpedtoprocurethemostdevastatingfallinoutputandemploymentforeightyyearsTherationaleconomicactorthateconomistsputatthecenteroftheirconceptualuniversehadturnedouttobeachimeraTh efinancialservicessectorhadbeendrivenbythewildstampedesofwhatGeorgeSorostheuncrownedkingofhedgefundmanagerscalledldquotheelectronicherdrdquo19

JMKeynesrsquosmordantwarningagainstallowingcapital inshyvestmenttobecomeldquothebyshyproductofacasinordquo20hadturnedouttobeaspertinentinthe2000sasithadbeeninthe1930sAndhorrorofhorrorsitbecameclearthatstateinterventiononascaleunprecedentedinpeacetimemdashincludingaplethoraof bank nationalizations that would have been unthinkablebeforethecrashmdashofferedtheonlyhopeofrescuingthemarshyketeconomyfromitself

Therootsofthecrisisweredeepandtheimplicationsarestill indebateButonethingisclearItwasaboveallacrisisofthenewlyuntamedcapitalismofthecapitalismthathademergedinthe1980sandtriumphedinthe1990sItwasnotconfinedtothetwopacemakerstheUnitedStates

18

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

and Britain Tiny Iceland was overwhelmed mighty GershymanywasbadlyshakenButwhenallthequalificationshavebeenmadethereisnodoubtthattheeconomicparadigmthatcollapsedsospectacularlywasmade inAmericanotfornothingwas itknownas theldquoWashingtonconsensusrdquoTheheadymixtureofgreedcredulityandselfshydestructiveingenuitythathadloadedAmericanbankswithtoxicassetsand theAmericaneconomywithamountainofdebthadplenty of European counterparts the discovery that Gershyman banks had behaved as greedily and irresponsibly astheirAmericanandBritishcounterpartsmadenonsenseofthesmugnotionmuchtoutedontheEuropeanmainlandthataspecialldquoRhenishrdquocapitalismwasatoneandthesametimemorekindlylessselfishandmoresuccessfulthantheshortshytermist and hypershyindividualistic AngloshyAmericanmodel21

ButthefeverwasmoreflagrantintheUnitedStates(andstillmoresoinBritain)thaninmainlandEuropeForyearsAmericanandBritishcommentatorshadberatedEuropeforfailingtoadopttheAmericanmodelwhileinternationalinshystitutionssuchastheIMFandtheWorldBankhadlostnoopportunitytopressureweakernationstoadoptitNowitscollapsehaddraggedtherestoftheworlddownwithit

Th e full repercussions will not be known for sometimeButitisalreadyclearthattheassumptionsenshrinedinKiplingrsquosldquoBalladofEastandWestrdquohavebeenturnedinshysideoutAttheveryheartoftheWestshyEastantimonyofthelast twentyshyfive hundred years lay the proposition that theldquoWestrdquowasparexcellencethehomeofreasonefficiencyandevolutionarysuccessthatanenlightenedmodernrationaland progressive ldquoWestrdquo confronted an unenlightened andbackward ldquoEastrdquo These assumptions had always been pashytronizingandmisleadingTheyarenowmanifestlyabsurd

19

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

Th efinancialcrisisandallthatflowedfromitshowedthatmdashat least in the narrow terms of economic growth that theAmericanmodelhaditselfprivilegedmdashldquoeasternrdquoChinaandIndiaweremoreefficientmoresuccessfulandmorerationalthan the supremelyldquowesternrdquoUnitedStatesWhileAmerishycans splurged the Chinese had saved indeed without thefloodofChinesesavingsthatpouredintotheUnitedStatesAmericansplurgingwouldhavebeenimpossibleAndIndiahad managed to combine economic success with a pulsatshyingandrambunctioushomegrowndemocracyasvigorousasAmericarsquosown

ThedynamismoftheAmericaneconomyandthecapshytivating resilience and openness of American society hadnot suddenlydisappearedbut theuniquemoralauthoritythatAmericahadenjoyedastheapparentepitomeofratioshynalityandprogressandwhichhadunderpinnedherglobalhegemonyhadsufferedaterribleblowAstheHongKongproperty tycoon Ronnie Chan puts it the world is in thethroesofasubtleprocessofldquorebalancingrdquomoralauthorityldquoThesystemthatthewesttoutedassuperiorrdquohewritesldquohasfailedWhyshoulddevelopingcountriesblindly follow itsmodelnowrdquo22

Political authority is ldquorebalancingrdquo too Madeleine Alshybright Bill Clintonrsquos secretary of state once declared thattheUnitedStateswasldquotheindispensablenationrdquoItisasafebetthatfortheforeseeablefutureitwillbean indispensshyablenationButitwillneveragainbealoneinitseminenceldquoEasternrdquo China and India will be indispensable too thatwasoneofthelessonsofthefailureoftheCopenhagenclishymatechangeconferenceTheymaywellbejoinedbyldquosouthshyernrdquoBrazilandconceivablybyldquoeasternrdquoRussiaaswellTh eobvious question for the United States as the pluralistic

20

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

unstableconflictedworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturytakesshapeisFareedZakariarsquosldquoCanWashingtonadjustandadapttoaworldinwhichothershavemovedupCanitthriveinaworlditcannotdominaterdquo23ButthereisalsoalessobshyviousandmorepainfulquestionCanAmericanscometotermswiththeendofAmericanexceptionalismCantheyabandonthemythofAmericaas thecityonahillwithauniqueredemptivemessageformankindAndcantheydoallthiswithoutdamagingthepatinaofmagicthatstillclingstotheircountry

Thequestions forAmericaarehardenoughbut thequesshytionsforEuropemdashtheotherhalfofthetraditionalldquoWestrdquomdashare far harder The familiar narrative of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquohadbeenEuropean longbefore itcrossed theAtlantic theissuesraisedbytheglobaltransformationthatisnowmakingnonsenseofitgototheheartofEuropersquosunderstandingofitselfaswellasofitsplaceintheworldForthearchitectsoftheEuropeanprojectEuropewasnotjustpartoftheldquoWestrdquoItwastheepitomeof theldquoWestrdquo theheartandsoulof thecivilizationthathadfirstfloweredinancientGreecePartofthepointoftheprojectwastoenableEuropetorecoveritsrightfulplaceasthechiefcustodianofldquowesternrdquovalues

AtthesametimeldquowesternrdquoEuropecouldcountonthesupport of a ldquowesternrdquo superpower patron when the goinggot rough the assumption that the patron will always beavailabletopullEuropeanchestnutsoutofthefireisstillpartofthemindshysetofEuropersquosleadersparticularlyinthecontishynentrsquoseasternmarchesButtheemergingnewglobalsystemhasnoplaceforsuchapatronTheObamaadministrationisnotantishyEuropeanastheneoconsintheBushadministrashytionusedtobeHoweverithasnewandbiggerfishtofry

21

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

TheBritishcommentatorandhistorianTimothyGartonAshputs itwellObamahewriteshasldquonosentimentalattachshymenttotheoldcontinentHisquestiontoEuropeislsquowhatcanyoudo forus todayrsquordquo24And thoughGartonAshdoesnotsaysotheanswerispatentlyldquonotmuchrdquo

MoreprobingquestionsfollowCanEuroperecovertheeacutelan and political creativity that healed the wounds of thetwogreatEuropeancivilwarsof the last centuryand thenextendedthescopeofdemocraticruletotheformerSovietsatellitesinEastCentralEuropeCanitovercomeitsinternalcontradictionsmdashbetweenEuropeanelitesandtheirpeoplesbetweendemocraticpromiseandtechnocraticrealityCanitdevelopinstitutionswiththelegitimacywillandcapacitytoenableittojointheUnitedStatesChinaandIndiaasaglobalpowerOrisitdoomedtoremainaneconomicgiantandapoliticalpygmymdashrichfatvulnerableandincreasinglyirrelevant to thenewworldthat is takingshapebeyonditsfrontiers

ThecurrentomensarenotencouragingTheuniqueEushyropeanexperimentinconsensualsupranationalgovernmenthasbeenastonishinglysuccessfulOldenemieshave learnedtolivetogetherifnotinferventamitythenatleastinpeaceGuaranteedhumanrightsand the ruleof lawnowprevailalbeitwithoccasionalblemishesrightacrossthecontinentthat spawned one of the most evil regimes in human hisshytorylessthana lifetimeagoThetroubleisthattimeshavechangedThegreatepochalsuccessesoftheEuropeanprojshyecttookplacefirstinthebinaryworldofthecoldwarandtheninthemonistworldofunchallengedAmericanprimacythatfollowedinotherwords inanagewhentheoldantishymonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquowasvirtuallyunchallengedButthatageisoverIntodayrsquosconflictedandshiftingworldthe

22

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

onlydubiouslylegitimategoverninginstitutionsbequeathedbytheUnionrsquosfoundingfathersmdashandstillmoretheclusterofassumptionsandhabitsthathasgrownuparoundthemmdasharenolongerfitforthevastlymoredauntingtrialstheyface

It tookeightyearsmdashfrom2001 to2009mdashtodeviseandcarry throughasetofsignificantbuthardlyearthshyshattershyinginstitutionalreformsdesignedtomakeUniondecisionmakingmoreefficientandsomewhatmoretransparentTh eeconomiccrisisof2007ndash10hasshoneabrightandcruellighton a design flaw in the Eurozone As the Irish former EUcommissioner Peter Sutherland caustically puts it its sysshytem of governance is ldquointellectually and politically schizoshyphrenicrdquo25 A European Central Bank controls monetarypolicy but member governments still control fiscal policyAsaresulttheweakereconomiesoftheEurozonearecaughtin a vice They cannot let their currencies float downwardinresponsetotheglobalcrisisasBritaindidtheyhavenocurrenciesoftheirownButthereisnosupranationalbudgettohelpthemmitigatethedeflationaryconsequencesofthecrisisasthereareinfullyfledgedfederationsAndtocapitallEuropewassidelinedattheCopenhagenclimatechangeconference Th ough European politicians frequently talkabouttheshiftofeconomicandpoliticalpowerfromwesttoeastthereislittlesignthattheyorthecitizenstheyrepresenthave thoughtseriouslyabout its implications forEuropeanpolitical economies or the Unionrsquos curious constitution InBrusselsandthecapitalsofthememberstatesthedominantthemeisldquobusinessasusualrdquooratleastldquobusinessasusualassoonaswecangetbacktoitrdquo

SoberreflectionontheimplicationsofthechangingconshyfigurationofglobalpowerhasbeendrownedoutbyachorusofselfshycongratulationManyholdthattheEuropeanUnionrsquos

23

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

and Britain Tiny Iceland was overwhelmed mighty GershymanywasbadlyshakenButwhenallthequalificationshavebeenmadethereisnodoubtthattheeconomicparadigmthatcollapsedsospectacularlywasmade inAmericanotfornothingwas itknownas theldquoWashingtonconsensusrdquoTheheadymixtureofgreedcredulityandselfshydestructiveingenuitythathadloadedAmericanbankswithtoxicassetsand theAmericaneconomywithamountainofdebthadplenty of European counterparts the discovery that Gershyman banks had behaved as greedily and irresponsibly astheirAmericanandBritishcounterpartsmadenonsenseofthesmugnotionmuchtoutedontheEuropeanmainlandthataspecialldquoRhenishrdquocapitalismwasatoneandthesametimemorekindlylessselfishandmoresuccessfulthantheshortshytermist and hypershyindividualistic AngloshyAmericanmodel21

ButthefeverwasmoreflagrantintheUnitedStates(andstillmoresoinBritain)thaninmainlandEuropeForyearsAmericanandBritishcommentatorshadberatedEuropeforfailingtoadopttheAmericanmodelwhileinternationalinshystitutionssuchastheIMFandtheWorldBankhadlostnoopportunitytopressureweakernationstoadoptitNowitscollapsehaddraggedtherestoftheworlddownwithit

Th e full repercussions will not be known for sometimeButitisalreadyclearthattheassumptionsenshrinedinKiplingrsquosldquoBalladofEastandWestrdquohavebeenturnedinshysideoutAttheveryheartoftheWestshyEastantimonyofthelast twentyshyfive hundred years lay the proposition that theldquoWestrdquowasparexcellencethehomeofreasonefficiencyandevolutionarysuccessthatanenlightenedmodernrationaland progressive ldquoWestrdquo confronted an unenlightened andbackward ldquoEastrdquo These assumptions had always been pashytronizingandmisleadingTheyarenowmanifestlyabsurd

19

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

Th efinancialcrisisandallthatflowedfromitshowedthatmdashat least in the narrow terms of economic growth that theAmericanmodelhaditselfprivilegedmdashldquoeasternrdquoChinaandIndiaweremoreefficientmoresuccessfulandmorerationalthan the supremelyldquowesternrdquoUnitedStatesWhileAmerishycans splurged the Chinese had saved indeed without thefloodofChinesesavingsthatpouredintotheUnitedStatesAmericansplurgingwouldhavebeenimpossibleAndIndiahad managed to combine economic success with a pulsatshyingandrambunctioushomegrowndemocracyasvigorousasAmericarsquosown

ThedynamismoftheAmericaneconomyandthecapshytivating resilience and openness of American society hadnot suddenlydisappearedbut theuniquemoralauthoritythatAmericahadenjoyedastheapparentepitomeofratioshynalityandprogressandwhichhadunderpinnedherglobalhegemonyhadsufferedaterribleblowAstheHongKongproperty tycoon Ronnie Chan puts it the world is in thethroesofasubtleprocessofldquorebalancingrdquomoralauthorityldquoThesystemthatthewesttoutedassuperiorrdquohewritesldquohasfailedWhyshoulddevelopingcountriesblindly follow itsmodelnowrdquo22

Political authority is ldquorebalancingrdquo too Madeleine Alshybright Bill Clintonrsquos secretary of state once declared thattheUnitedStateswasldquotheindispensablenationrdquoItisasafebetthatfortheforeseeablefutureitwillbean indispensshyablenationButitwillneveragainbealoneinitseminenceldquoEasternrdquo China and India will be indispensable too thatwasoneofthelessonsofthefailureoftheCopenhagenclishymatechangeconferenceTheymaywellbejoinedbyldquosouthshyernrdquoBrazilandconceivablybyldquoeasternrdquoRussiaaswellTh eobvious question for the United States as the pluralistic

20

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

unstableconflictedworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturytakesshapeisFareedZakariarsquosldquoCanWashingtonadjustandadapttoaworldinwhichothershavemovedupCanitthriveinaworlditcannotdominaterdquo23ButthereisalsoalessobshyviousandmorepainfulquestionCanAmericanscometotermswiththeendofAmericanexceptionalismCantheyabandonthemythofAmericaas thecityonahillwithauniqueredemptivemessageformankindAndcantheydoallthiswithoutdamagingthepatinaofmagicthatstillclingstotheircountry

Thequestions forAmericaarehardenoughbut thequesshytionsforEuropemdashtheotherhalfofthetraditionalldquoWestrdquomdashare far harder The familiar narrative of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquohadbeenEuropean longbefore itcrossed theAtlantic theissuesraisedbytheglobaltransformationthatisnowmakingnonsenseofitgototheheartofEuropersquosunderstandingofitselfaswellasofitsplaceintheworldForthearchitectsoftheEuropeanprojectEuropewasnotjustpartoftheldquoWestrdquoItwastheepitomeof theldquoWestrdquo theheartandsoulof thecivilizationthathadfirstfloweredinancientGreecePartofthepointoftheprojectwastoenableEuropetorecoveritsrightfulplaceasthechiefcustodianofldquowesternrdquovalues

AtthesametimeldquowesternrdquoEuropecouldcountonthesupport of a ldquowesternrdquo superpower patron when the goinggot rough the assumption that the patron will always beavailabletopullEuropeanchestnutsoutofthefireisstillpartofthemindshysetofEuropersquosleadersparticularlyinthecontishynentrsquoseasternmarchesButtheemergingnewglobalsystemhasnoplaceforsuchapatronTheObamaadministrationisnotantishyEuropeanastheneoconsintheBushadministrashytionusedtobeHoweverithasnewandbiggerfishtofry

21

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

TheBritishcommentatorandhistorianTimothyGartonAshputs itwellObamahewriteshasldquonosentimentalattachshymenttotheoldcontinentHisquestiontoEuropeislsquowhatcanyoudo forus todayrsquordquo24And thoughGartonAshdoesnotsaysotheanswerispatentlyldquonotmuchrdquo

MoreprobingquestionsfollowCanEuroperecovertheeacutelan and political creativity that healed the wounds of thetwogreatEuropeancivilwarsof the last centuryand thenextendedthescopeofdemocraticruletotheformerSovietsatellitesinEastCentralEuropeCanitovercomeitsinternalcontradictionsmdashbetweenEuropeanelitesandtheirpeoplesbetweendemocraticpromiseandtechnocraticrealityCanitdevelopinstitutionswiththelegitimacywillandcapacitytoenableittojointheUnitedStatesChinaandIndiaasaglobalpowerOrisitdoomedtoremainaneconomicgiantandapoliticalpygmymdashrichfatvulnerableandincreasinglyirrelevant to thenewworldthat is takingshapebeyonditsfrontiers

ThecurrentomensarenotencouragingTheuniqueEushyropeanexperimentinconsensualsupranationalgovernmenthasbeenastonishinglysuccessfulOldenemieshave learnedtolivetogetherifnotinferventamitythenatleastinpeaceGuaranteedhumanrightsand the ruleof lawnowprevailalbeitwithoccasionalblemishesrightacrossthecontinentthat spawned one of the most evil regimes in human hisshytorylessthana lifetimeagoThetroubleisthattimeshavechangedThegreatepochalsuccessesoftheEuropeanprojshyecttookplacefirstinthebinaryworldofthecoldwarandtheninthemonistworldofunchallengedAmericanprimacythatfollowedinotherwords inanagewhentheoldantishymonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquowasvirtuallyunchallengedButthatageisoverIntodayrsquosconflictedandshiftingworldthe

22

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

onlydubiouslylegitimategoverninginstitutionsbequeathedbytheUnionrsquosfoundingfathersmdashandstillmoretheclusterofassumptionsandhabitsthathasgrownuparoundthemmdasharenolongerfitforthevastlymoredauntingtrialstheyface

It tookeightyearsmdashfrom2001 to2009mdashtodeviseandcarry throughasetofsignificantbuthardlyearthshyshattershyinginstitutionalreformsdesignedtomakeUniondecisionmakingmoreefficientandsomewhatmoretransparentTh eeconomiccrisisof2007ndash10hasshoneabrightandcruellighton a design flaw in the Eurozone As the Irish former EUcommissioner Peter Sutherland caustically puts it its sysshytem of governance is ldquointellectually and politically schizoshyphrenicrdquo25 A European Central Bank controls monetarypolicy but member governments still control fiscal policyAsaresulttheweakereconomiesoftheEurozonearecaughtin a vice They cannot let their currencies float downwardinresponsetotheglobalcrisisasBritaindidtheyhavenocurrenciesoftheirownButthereisnosupranationalbudgettohelpthemmitigatethedeflationaryconsequencesofthecrisisasthereareinfullyfledgedfederationsAndtocapitallEuropewassidelinedattheCopenhagenclimatechangeconference Th ough European politicians frequently talkabouttheshiftofeconomicandpoliticalpowerfromwesttoeastthereislittlesignthattheyorthecitizenstheyrepresenthave thoughtseriouslyabout its implications forEuropeanpolitical economies or the Unionrsquos curious constitution InBrusselsandthecapitalsofthememberstatesthedominantthemeisldquobusinessasusualrdquooratleastldquobusinessasusualassoonaswecangetbacktoitrdquo

SoberreflectionontheimplicationsofthechangingconshyfigurationofglobalpowerhasbeendrownedoutbyachorusofselfshycongratulationManyholdthattheEuropeanUnionrsquos

23

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

Th efinancialcrisisandallthatflowedfromitshowedthatmdashat least in the narrow terms of economic growth that theAmericanmodelhaditselfprivilegedmdashldquoeasternrdquoChinaandIndiaweremoreefficientmoresuccessfulandmorerationalthan the supremelyldquowesternrdquoUnitedStatesWhileAmerishycans splurged the Chinese had saved indeed without thefloodofChinesesavingsthatpouredintotheUnitedStatesAmericansplurgingwouldhavebeenimpossibleAndIndiahad managed to combine economic success with a pulsatshyingandrambunctioushomegrowndemocracyasvigorousasAmericarsquosown

ThedynamismoftheAmericaneconomyandthecapshytivating resilience and openness of American society hadnot suddenlydisappearedbut theuniquemoralauthoritythatAmericahadenjoyedastheapparentepitomeofratioshynalityandprogressandwhichhadunderpinnedherglobalhegemonyhadsufferedaterribleblowAstheHongKongproperty tycoon Ronnie Chan puts it the world is in thethroesofasubtleprocessofldquorebalancingrdquomoralauthorityldquoThesystemthatthewesttoutedassuperiorrdquohewritesldquohasfailedWhyshoulddevelopingcountriesblindly follow itsmodelnowrdquo22

Political authority is ldquorebalancingrdquo too Madeleine Alshybright Bill Clintonrsquos secretary of state once declared thattheUnitedStateswasldquotheindispensablenationrdquoItisasafebetthatfortheforeseeablefutureitwillbean indispensshyablenationButitwillneveragainbealoneinitseminenceldquoEasternrdquo China and India will be indispensable too thatwasoneofthelessonsofthefailureoftheCopenhagenclishymatechangeconferenceTheymaywellbejoinedbyldquosouthshyernrdquoBrazilandconceivablybyldquoeasternrdquoRussiaaswellTh eobvious question for the United States as the pluralistic

20

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

unstableconflictedworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturytakesshapeisFareedZakariarsquosldquoCanWashingtonadjustandadapttoaworldinwhichothershavemovedupCanitthriveinaworlditcannotdominaterdquo23ButthereisalsoalessobshyviousandmorepainfulquestionCanAmericanscometotermswiththeendofAmericanexceptionalismCantheyabandonthemythofAmericaas thecityonahillwithauniqueredemptivemessageformankindAndcantheydoallthiswithoutdamagingthepatinaofmagicthatstillclingstotheircountry

Thequestions forAmericaarehardenoughbut thequesshytionsforEuropemdashtheotherhalfofthetraditionalldquoWestrdquomdashare far harder The familiar narrative of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquohadbeenEuropean longbefore itcrossed theAtlantic theissuesraisedbytheglobaltransformationthatisnowmakingnonsenseofitgototheheartofEuropersquosunderstandingofitselfaswellasofitsplaceintheworldForthearchitectsoftheEuropeanprojectEuropewasnotjustpartoftheldquoWestrdquoItwastheepitomeof theldquoWestrdquo theheartandsoulof thecivilizationthathadfirstfloweredinancientGreecePartofthepointoftheprojectwastoenableEuropetorecoveritsrightfulplaceasthechiefcustodianofldquowesternrdquovalues

AtthesametimeldquowesternrdquoEuropecouldcountonthesupport of a ldquowesternrdquo superpower patron when the goinggot rough the assumption that the patron will always beavailabletopullEuropeanchestnutsoutofthefireisstillpartofthemindshysetofEuropersquosleadersparticularlyinthecontishynentrsquoseasternmarchesButtheemergingnewglobalsystemhasnoplaceforsuchapatronTheObamaadministrationisnotantishyEuropeanastheneoconsintheBushadministrashytionusedtobeHoweverithasnewandbiggerfishtofry

21

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

TheBritishcommentatorandhistorianTimothyGartonAshputs itwellObamahewriteshasldquonosentimentalattachshymenttotheoldcontinentHisquestiontoEuropeislsquowhatcanyoudo forus todayrsquordquo24And thoughGartonAshdoesnotsaysotheanswerispatentlyldquonotmuchrdquo

MoreprobingquestionsfollowCanEuroperecovertheeacutelan and political creativity that healed the wounds of thetwogreatEuropeancivilwarsof the last centuryand thenextendedthescopeofdemocraticruletotheformerSovietsatellitesinEastCentralEuropeCanitovercomeitsinternalcontradictionsmdashbetweenEuropeanelitesandtheirpeoplesbetweendemocraticpromiseandtechnocraticrealityCanitdevelopinstitutionswiththelegitimacywillandcapacitytoenableittojointheUnitedStatesChinaandIndiaasaglobalpowerOrisitdoomedtoremainaneconomicgiantandapoliticalpygmymdashrichfatvulnerableandincreasinglyirrelevant to thenewworldthat is takingshapebeyonditsfrontiers

ThecurrentomensarenotencouragingTheuniqueEushyropeanexperimentinconsensualsupranationalgovernmenthasbeenastonishinglysuccessfulOldenemieshave learnedtolivetogetherifnotinferventamitythenatleastinpeaceGuaranteedhumanrightsand the ruleof lawnowprevailalbeitwithoccasionalblemishesrightacrossthecontinentthat spawned one of the most evil regimes in human hisshytorylessthana lifetimeagoThetroubleisthattimeshavechangedThegreatepochalsuccessesoftheEuropeanprojshyecttookplacefirstinthebinaryworldofthecoldwarandtheninthemonistworldofunchallengedAmericanprimacythatfollowedinotherwords inanagewhentheoldantishymonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquowasvirtuallyunchallengedButthatageisoverIntodayrsquosconflictedandshiftingworldthe

22

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

onlydubiouslylegitimategoverninginstitutionsbequeathedbytheUnionrsquosfoundingfathersmdashandstillmoretheclusterofassumptionsandhabitsthathasgrownuparoundthemmdasharenolongerfitforthevastlymoredauntingtrialstheyface

It tookeightyearsmdashfrom2001 to2009mdashtodeviseandcarry throughasetofsignificantbuthardlyearthshyshattershyinginstitutionalreformsdesignedtomakeUniondecisionmakingmoreefficientandsomewhatmoretransparentTh eeconomiccrisisof2007ndash10hasshoneabrightandcruellighton a design flaw in the Eurozone As the Irish former EUcommissioner Peter Sutherland caustically puts it its sysshytem of governance is ldquointellectually and politically schizoshyphrenicrdquo25 A European Central Bank controls monetarypolicy but member governments still control fiscal policyAsaresulttheweakereconomiesoftheEurozonearecaughtin a vice They cannot let their currencies float downwardinresponsetotheglobalcrisisasBritaindidtheyhavenocurrenciesoftheirownButthereisnosupranationalbudgettohelpthemmitigatethedeflationaryconsequencesofthecrisisasthereareinfullyfledgedfederationsAndtocapitallEuropewassidelinedattheCopenhagenclimatechangeconference Th ough European politicians frequently talkabouttheshiftofeconomicandpoliticalpowerfromwesttoeastthereislittlesignthattheyorthecitizenstheyrepresenthave thoughtseriouslyabout its implications forEuropeanpolitical economies or the Unionrsquos curious constitution InBrusselsandthecapitalsofthememberstatesthedominantthemeisldquobusinessasusualrdquooratleastldquobusinessasusualassoonaswecangetbacktoitrdquo

SoberreflectionontheimplicationsofthechangingconshyfigurationofglobalpowerhasbeendrownedoutbyachorusofselfshycongratulationManyholdthattheEuropeanUnionrsquos

23

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

unstableconflictedworldofthetwentyshyfirstcenturytakesshapeisFareedZakariarsquosldquoCanWashingtonadjustandadapttoaworldinwhichothershavemovedupCanitthriveinaworlditcannotdominaterdquo23ButthereisalsoalessobshyviousandmorepainfulquestionCanAmericanscometotermswiththeendofAmericanexceptionalismCantheyabandonthemythofAmericaas thecityonahillwithauniqueredemptivemessageformankindAndcantheydoallthiswithoutdamagingthepatinaofmagicthatstillclingstotheircountry

Thequestions forAmericaarehardenoughbut thequesshytionsforEuropemdashtheotherhalfofthetraditionalldquoWestrdquomdashare far harder The familiar narrative of ldquoWestrdquo and ldquoEastrdquohadbeenEuropean longbefore itcrossed theAtlantic theissuesraisedbytheglobaltransformationthatisnowmakingnonsenseofitgototheheartofEuropersquosunderstandingofitselfaswellasofitsplaceintheworldForthearchitectsoftheEuropeanprojectEuropewasnotjustpartoftheldquoWestrdquoItwastheepitomeof theldquoWestrdquo theheartandsoulof thecivilizationthathadfirstfloweredinancientGreecePartofthepointoftheprojectwastoenableEuropetorecoveritsrightfulplaceasthechiefcustodianofldquowesternrdquovalues

AtthesametimeldquowesternrdquoEuropecouldcountonthesupport of a ldquowesternrdquo superpower patron when the goinggot rough the assumption that the patron will always beavailabletopullEuropeanchestnutsoutofthefireisstillpartofthemindshysetofEuropersquosleadersparticularlyinthecontishynentrsquoseasternmarchesButtheemergingnewglobalsystemhasnoplaceforsuchapatronTheObamaadministrationisnotantishyEuropeanastheneoconsintheBushadministrashytionusedtobeHoweverithasnewandbiggerfishtofry

21

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

TheBritishcommentatorandhistorianTimothyGartonAshputs itwellObamahewriteshasldquonosentimentalattachshymenttotheoldcontinentHisquestiontoEuropeislsquowhatcanyoudo forus todayrsquordquo24And thoughGartonAshdoesnotsaysotheanswerispatentlyldquonotmuchrdquo

MoreprobingquestionsfollowCanEuroperecovertheeacutelan and political creativity that healed the wounds of thetwogreatEuropeancivilwarsof the last centuryand thenextendedthescopeofdemocraticruletotheformerSovietsatellitesinEastCentralEuropeCanitovercomeitsinternalcontradictionsmdashbetweenEuropeanelitesandtheirpeoplesbetweendemocraticpromiseandtechnocraticrealityCanitdevelopinstitutionswiththelegitimacywillandcapacitytoenableittojointheUnitedStatesChinaandIndiaasaglobalpowerOrisitdoomedtoremainaneconomicgiantandapoliticalpygmymdashrichfatvulnerableandincreasinglyirrelevant to thenewworldthat is takingshapebeyonditsfrontiers

ThecurrentomensarenotencouragingTheuniqueEushyropeanexperimentinconsensualsupranationalgovernmenthasbeenastonishinglysuccessfulOldenemieshave learnedtolivetogetherifnotinferventamitythenatleastinpeaceGuaranteedhumanrightsand the ruleof lawnowprevailalbeitwithoccasionalblemishesrightacrossthecontinentthat spawned one of the most evil regimes in human hisshytorylessthana lifetimeagoThetroubleisthattimeshavechangedThegreatepochalsuccessesoftheEuropeanprojshyecttookplacefirstinthebinaryworldofthecoldwarandtheninthemonistworldofunchallengedAmericanprimacythatfollowedinotherwords inanagewhentheoldantishymonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquowasvirtuallyunchallengedButthatageisoverIntodayrsquosconflictedandshiftingworldthe

22

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

onlydubiouslylegitimategoverninginstitutionsbequeathedbytheUnionrsquosfoundingfathersmdashandstillmoretheclusterofassumptionsandhabitsthathasgrownuparoundthemmdasharenolongerfitforthevastlymoredauntingtrialstheyface

It tookeightyearsmdashfrom2001 to2009mdashtodeviseandcarry throughasetofsignificantbuthardlyearthshyshattershyinginstitutionalreformsdesignedtomakeUniondecisionmakingmoreefficientandsomewhatmoretransparentTh eeconomiccrisisof2007ndash10hasshoneabrightandcruellighton a design flaw in the Eurozone As the Irish former EUcommissioner Peter Sutherland caustically puts it its sysshytem of governance is ldquointellectually and politically schizoshyphrenicrdquo25 A European Central Bank controls monetarypolicy but member governments still control fiscal policyAsaresulttheweakereconomiesoftheEurozonearecaughtin a vice They cannot let their currencies float downwardinresponsetotheglobalcrisisasBritaindidtheyhavenocurrenciesoftheirownButthereisnosupranationalbudgettohelpthemmitigatethedeflationaryconsequencesofthecrisisasthereareinfullyfledgedfederationsAndtocapitallEuropewassidelinedattheCopenhagenclimatechangeconference Th ough European politicians frequently talkabouttheshiftofeconomicandpoliticalpowerfromwesttoeastthereislittlesignthattheyorthecitizenstheyrepresenthave thoughtseriouslyabout its implications forEuropeanpolitical economies or the Unionrsquos curious constitution InBrusselsandthecapitalsofthememberstatesthedominantthemeisldquobusinessasusualrdquooratleastldquobusinessasusualassoonaswecangetbacktoitrdquo

SoberreflectionontheimplicationsofthechangingconshyfigurationofglobalpowerhasbeendrownedoutbyachorusofselfshycongratulationManyholdthattheEuropeanUnionrsquos

23

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

TheBritishcommentatorandhistorianTimothyGartonAshputs itwellObamahewriteshasldquonosentimentalattachshymenttotheoldcontinentHisquestiontoEuropeislsquowhatcanyoudo forus todayrsquordquo24And thoughGartonAshdoesnotsaysotheanswerispatentlyldquonotmuchrdquo

MoreprobingquestionsfollowCanEuroperecovertheeacutelan and political creativity that healed the wounds of thetwogreatEuropeancivilwarsof the last centuryand thenextendedthescopeofdemocraticruletotheformerSovietsatellitesinEastCentralEuropeCanitovercomeitsinternalcontradictionsmdashbetweenEuropeanelitesandtheirpeoplesbetweendemocraticpromiseandtechnocraticrealityCanitdevelopinstitutionswiththelegitimacywillandcapacitytoenableittojointheUnitedStatesChinaandIndiaasaglobalpowerOrisitdoomedtoremainaneconomicgiantandapoliticalpygmymdashrichfatvulnerableandincreasinglyirrelevant to thenewworldthat is takingshapebeyonditsfrontiers

ThecurrentomensarenotencouragingTheuniqueEushyropeanexperimentinconsensualsupranationalgovernmenthasbeenastonishinglysuccessfulOldenemieshave learnedtolivetogetherifnotinferventamitythenatleastinpeaceGuaranteedhumanrightsand the ruleof lawnowprevailalbeitwithoccasionalblemishesrightacrossthecontinentthat spawned one of the most evil regimes in human hisshytorylessthana lifetimeagoThetroubleisthattimeshavechangedThegreatepochalsuccessesoftheEuropeanprojshyecttookplacefirstinthebinaryworldofthecoldwarandtheninthemonistworldofunchallengedAmericanprimacythatfollowedinotherwords inanagewhentheoldantishymonyofldquoWestrdquoversusldquoEastrdquowasvirtuallyunchallengedButthatageisoverIntodayrsquosconflictedandshiftingworldthe

22

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

onlydubiouslylegitimategoverninginstitutionsbequeathedbytheUnionrsquosfoundingfathersmdashandstillmoretheclusterofassumptionsandhabitsthathasgrownuparoundthemmdasharenolongerfitforthevastlymoredauntingtrialstheyface

It tookeightyearsmdashfrom2001 to2009mdashtodeviseandcarry throughasetofsignificantbuthardlyearthshyshattershyinginstitutionalreformsdesignedtomakeUniondecisionmakingmoreefficientandsomewhatmoretransparentTh eeconomiccrisisof2007ndash10hasshoneabrightandcruellighton a design flaw in the Eurozone As the Irish former EUcommissioner Peter Sutherland caustically puts it its sysshytem of governance is ldquointellectually and politically schizoshyphrenicrdquo25 A European Central Bank controls monetarypolicy but member governments still control fiscal policyAsaresulttheweakereconomiesoftheEurozonearecaughtin a vice They cannot let their currencies float downwardinresponsetotheglobalcrisisasBritaindidtheyhavenocurrenciesoftheirownButthereisnosupranationalbudgettohelpthemmitigatethedeflationaryconsequencesofthecrisisasthereareinfullyfledgedfederationsAndtocapitallEuropewassidelinedattheCopenhagenclimatechangeconference Th ough European politicians frequently talkabouttheshiftofeconomicandpoliticalpowerfromwesttoeastthereislittlesignthattheyorthecitizenstheyrepresenthave thoughtseriouslyabout its implications forEuropeanpolitical economies or the Unionrsquos curious constitution InBrusselsandthecapitalsofthememberstatesthedominantthemeisldquobusinessasusualrdquooratleastldquobusinessasusualassoonaswecangetbacktoitrdquo

SoberreflectionontheimplicationsofthechangingconshyfigurationofglobalpowerhasbeendrownedoutbyachorusofselfshycongratulationManyholdthattheEuropeanUnionrsquos

23

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

onlydubiouslylegitimategoverninginstitutionsbequeathedbytheUnionrsquosfoundingfathersmdashandstillmoretheclusterofassumptionsandhabitsthathasgrownuparoundthemmdasharenolongerfitforthevastlymoredauntingtrialstheyface

It tookeightyearsmdashfrom2001 to2009mdashtodeviseandcarry throughasetofsignificantbuthardlyearthshyshattershyinginstitutionalreformsdesignedtomakeUniondecisionmakingmoreefficientandsomewhatmoretransparentTh eeconomiccrisisof2007ndash10hasshoneabrightandcruellighton a design flaw in the Eurozone As the Irish former EUcommissioner Peter Sutherland caustically puts it its sysshytem of governance is ldquointellectually and politically schizoshyphrenicrdquo25 A European Central Bank controls monetarypolicy but member governments still control fiscal policyAsaresulttheweakereconomiesoftheEurozonearecaughtin a vice They cannot let their currencies float downwardinresponsetotheglobalcrisisasBritaindidtheyhavenocurrenciesoftheirownButthereisnosupranationalbudgettohelpthemmitigatethedeflationaryconsequencesofthecrisisasthereareinfullyfledgedfederationsAndtocapitallEuropewassidelinedattheCopenhagenclimatechangeconference Th ough European politicians frequently talkabouttheshiftofeconomicandpoliticalpowerfromwesttoeastthereislittlesignthattheyorthecitizenstheyrepresenthave thoughtseriouslyabout its implications forEuropeanpolitical economies or the Unionrsquos curious constitution InBrusselsandthecapitalsofthememberstatesthedominantthemeisldquobusinessasusualrdquooratleastldquobusinessasusualassoonaswecangetbacktoitrdquo

SoberreflectionontheimplicationsofthechangingconshyfigurationofglobalpowerhasbeendrownedoutbyachorusofselfshycongratulationManyholdthattheEuropeanUnionrsquos

23

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

undoubtedsuccessinpersuadingnationallambstoliedownwithonceshythreateningnationallionscanandshouldbeindefshyinitelyrepeatedintheterritoriesbeyonditspresentfrontiersandthatitsvocationistocarrythemessageofthatsuccesstotherestofhumanityThedistinguishedGermansociologistUlrich Beck has opined that ldquothe catchshyphrase for the fushyture might be lsquoMove Over AmericamdashEurope is backrsquordquo thebrilliantyoungBritishpublicistMarkLeonardhasinsistedthatldquoaNewEuropeanCenturyrdquoisdawningandthatEuropeldquowill run the 21st centuryrdquo while the Frenchman MarcelGaucheteditorofLe DeacutebathasprophesiedthattheformulapioneeredinEuropewilleventuallyserveasldquoamodelforthenationsof theworldThat lies in itsgeneticprogrammerdquo26

ButtocoolerheadsthisenlightenedpostnationalvocationlooksasEurocentricastheunenlightenedimperialisticvoshycationthatdazzledEuropeansinthenineteenthcenturyItalsoseemsremarkablyreminiscentoftheAmericandreamofthecityonahillandifanythingevenlesslikelytoplaywellwiththerisingpowersofAsiaandLatinAmericaTh ekindestthingtosayaboutsuchdreamsofEuropeasalighttolightenthegentilesintherestoftheworldisthattheyareacenturyoutshyofshydate

On present trends the American National IntelligenceCouncilthoughtEuropewillbeldquolosingcloutin2025rdquowhiletheEUwilllikelyremainaldquohobbledgiantdistractedbyinshyternal bickering and competing national agendasrdquo27 To besurethesetrendsarenotsetinstoneFewinthedevastatedEuropeof1946or1947wouldhavepredictedtheastonishshyingupsurgeinlivingstandardsthattransformedthewesternhalf of the continent in the 1950s and 1960s In the quershyulous1970s few foresawthatby theendof thecenturyasingleEuropeancurrencywouldreplacenationalcurrencies

24

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

PROLOGUE

throughout the continentrsquos heartlandmdasha tragically incomshyplete achievement as I suggested a moment ago but nevshyerthelessahistoriconeAs lateas thesummerof1989nooneimaginedthatthethenCommuniststatesofEastCenshytralEuropewouldsoonbecomefullmembersoftheUnionpledgedtodemocracyandtheruleoflawTrendscanbendEuropersquosfateisinitsownhandsButitcanprovethedoomshysters wrong only by drawing on all its reserves of politicalcreativityandimagination

Imagination matters most The architects of the Euroshypeanprojectwerehardheadedpoliticiansandofficialsnototherworldly dreamers But they were politicians and offishycialswithadifferenceTheyhadanexceptionalcapacitytoseebeyondtheirnoses to imagineadifferent futureandapathtowarditEventsdidnotfollowtheirpathineveryreshyspectitwouldhavebeenastonishingiftheyhadYetthetwogreatchangesoftherecentpastmdashenlargementtotheeastandthe single currencymdashwere immanent in their project fromthebeginningTheEuropeof2011istheproductoftheleapofimaginationthatbroughttheEuropeanCommunityintoexistencenearlysixtyyearsago

ButsixtyyearsisalongtimeAnotherleapislongovershydue The great question is what form it should take Th isbookoffersonemanrsquosanswerIexaminethecontradictionsandevasionsinwhichtheEuropeanUnionisnowenmeshedand suggest an alternative approach But my alternative isopenshyended I do not set out a readyshymade blueprint forthefuturestilllessatoolboxofinstitutionalquickfixesMyfocusisontheideasmemoriesandassumptionsthatshapethethinkingofpolicymakersandinstitutionleadersratherthanonpoliciesorinstitutionsthemselvesAndIwriteasacommittedfriendoftheEuropeanprojectnotasafoeTh e

25

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26

Copyrighted Material

CHAPTER1

lastthingIwanttodoistodenigrateitsachievementsortobelittle the moral vision that lies at its heart But I believethatthebestwaytopursuethatvisionasthistroubledcenshyturymovesonistosoundthealarmSelfshycongratulationisnolongerenough

26