Maryland Poll October 2010

8/8/2019 Maryland Poll October 2010

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www.gonzalesresearch.com

Marylands leader in public opinion polling

Maryland Poll

Part 1

Governors Election

U.S. Senate

October 2010

Contact: Laslo Boyd 443-812-4883


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Embargo: 12:01 am Tuesday, October 19

Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. Page 2

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a

degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst withMason-DixonOpinion Research and is the former president ofMason-Dixon Campaign Polling.

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since

the mid 1980s. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerousmarket research projects and crafted message development programs for

businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner ofGonzales Research & Marketing Strategies. Dr.

Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30

years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research

& Marketing Strategies. Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promotingthe state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from

October 11th

through October 16th

, 2010. A total of 816 registered voters inMaryland who are likely to vote in the 2010 general election were interviewed by

telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within

the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more

than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the

true figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe weresampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as

gender or race.


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Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

PARTY AFFILIATION Number Percent

Democrat 450 55.1 %Republican 269 33.0 %

Independent 97 11.9 %

Total 816 100.0 %

RACE Number Percent

White 623 76.3 %

African-American 170 20.8 %

Other/Refused 23 2.8 %

Total 816 100.0 %

GENDER Number Percent

Male 400 49.0 %

Female 416 51.0 %Total 816 100.0 %

REGION Number Percent

Eastern Sh/So MD 114 14.0 %

Baltimore City 69 8.5 %

Baltimore Suburbs 310 38.0 %

Washington Suburbs 229 28.1 %

Western MD 94 11.5 %

Total 816 100.0 %

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/

Southern Md Baltimore City

Baltimore

Suburbs

Washington

Suburbs

Western

Maryland

Calvert Co. Baltimore City Anne Arundel Co. Montgomery Co. Allegany Co.

Caroline Co. Baltimore Co. Prince Georges Co. Carroll Co.

Cecil Co. Harford Co. Frederick Co.

Charles Co. Howard Co. Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co. Washington Co.

Kent Co.

Queen Annes Co.

Somerset Co.

St. Marys Co.

Talbot Co.Wicomico Co.

Worcester Co.


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Summary

Most Important Issue facing State

The economy and jobs refuse to go away as the number one issue for Maryland voters, cited by aclear majority two weeks before Election Day.

Statewide, 55% of the electorate says that the economy is the most important issue facing the

state (up 3 points from July), while 12% say education, 10% say the budget deficit, and 9% saytaxes.

A longitudinal look at the most important issue for Marylanders since January 2008:

Can any incumbent keep his or her head above water in such a morass?

10%

23%

42%

61%

43%

54%52%

55%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan '08 Mar '08 Sept '08 Jan '09 Sept '09 Jan '10 July '10 Oct '10

Economy

Education

Taxes

The economy ranks43 points ahead of

the second issue


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Governor Martin OMalley Job Approval

Martin OMalley seems to be.

Statewide, 48% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin OMalley is doing as

governor, while 44% disapprove of the job he is doing, and 8% had no opinion.

By party, 71% of Democrats approve of the job OMalley is doing as governor and 22%disapprove; while among Republicans, 13% approve of the job OMalley is doing and 81%

disapprove.

Among registered independents, 40% approve and 44% disapprove.

OMalley Job

Approval Approve Disapprove No opinion

October 2010 48% 44% 8%July 2010 48% 39% 13%

January 2010 46% 36% 18%

September 2009 48% 37% 15%

January 2009 49% 37% 14%

September 2008 45% 35% 20%

March 2008 37% 48% 15%

January 2008 39% 49% 12%

October 2007 46% 31% 23%

March 2007 52% 21% 27%

OMalleys negatives among Republicans and independents are up since July, but this electionhas always been about securing the base, and his campaign appears to be doing that heading into

the November 2nd

election.

Former Governor Bob Ehrlich

Among Maryland voters, 40% have a favorable opinion of Bob Ehrlich (down 6 points sinceJuly), 34% have an unfavorable opinion (up 9 points), and 25% have a neutral opinion.

By party, 74% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Ehrlich and 9% have an unfavorableopinion; while among Democrats, 21% are favorable and 50% are unfavorable.

The OMalley campaigns media barrage against Ehrlich is having its intended effecttwo

weeks before the election, Ehrlich has become the incumbent.


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Gubernatorial Election

If the election were held today,47% of Maryland voters say theyd vote for OMalley, 42%

would vote for Ehrlich, 4% say theyd vote for a third party candidate, and 6% are undecided.

The results by party:

OMalley Ehrlich Undecided

Democrats 72% 17% 6%

Republicans 9% 85% 4%

Independents 36% 42% 12%

A lookat the governors race by region:

Figure 2 Governor's Election by Region

32%

70%

41%

65%

28%

57%

16%

49%

25%

64%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

East Sh/So

MD

Balt City Balt Subs Wash Subs West MD

O'Malley

Ehrlich

17% among Democrats for Ehrlich on

Election Day wont do it

This election for Ehrlich was always going

to be won or lost in the Baltimore suburbs.

An 8 point advantage is not enough to

offset OMalleys tally in the Washingtonsuburbs.


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The race for governor over the past year:

Gubernatorial

Match-up OMalley Ehrlich Undecided

October 2010 47% 42% 6%July 2010 45% 42% 8%

January 2010 48% 39% 13%

September 2009 49% 38% 13%

Survey Sampling

Much has been written and talked about recently with regard to the numerous polls promulgated

and the disparate methodological approaches employed. Wed like to briefly describe our

approach and why we arrived at that methodology. Turnout, as they say, is the key to many

elections. Here is our party breakdown for this survey:

PARTY AFFILIATION Number Percent

Democrat 450 55.1 %

Republican 269 33.0 %

Independent/Unaffiliated 97 11.9 %

Total 816 100.0 %

We did not arrive at these figures or this model by chanceit is derived from these facts.

There are 1,948,008 registered Democrats in Maryland

There are 920,181 registered Republicans in Maryland

There are 580,418 registered voters in Maryland affiliated with neither of these 2 parties

In 2006, 59.30% of registered Democrats voted in the general election, 62.75% of Republicans

voted in the general election, and 41.97% of independents voted in the general election. In the

2010 primaries last month, turnout in the Democratic primary was down 27 percent from 2006,while turnout in the Republican primary was up 23 percent from 2006.

Based on this information, we have constructed the following Election Day model:

Democratic turnout will drop 7% in 2010, going from 59.3% to 55%.

1,948,008 Democrats times 55% = 1,071,400

Republican turnout will increase 11% in 2010, going from 62.75% to 70%.

920,181 Republicans times 70% = 644,200


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Unaffiliated turnout dropped 3.5 points from 2002-2006, and will drop 2 points this year.

580,418 independents times 40% = 232,000

November 2nd

Electorate

Democrats - 1,071,400 (55%)

Republicans - 644,200 (33%)

Independents - 232,000 (12%)

Total Voters - 1,947,600

President Barack Obama Job Approval

A majority of Maryland voters still approve of the job President Obama is doing, but the

electorate is becoming polarized.

Statewide, 52% approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president (up 1 point), while 43%

disapprove (up 5 points).

Obama Job


October 2010 52% 43% 5%

July 2010 51% 38% 11%

January 2010 56% 30% 14%

September 2009 58% 31% 11%

January 2009 80% 11% 9%

By party, 80% of Democrats approve of the job Obama is doing (up 7 points since July), while85% of Republicans disapprove (up 10 points). Among independents, 45% approve (down 11

points and 51% disapprove (up 18 points).


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U.S. Senate Election

Statewide, 53% of voters approve of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as a United States

Senator (down 6 points since July), 37% disapprove (up 8 points), and 9% offered no opinion.

Mikulski Job


October 2010 53% 37% 9%

July 2010 59% 29% 12%

January 2010 64% 23% 13%

September 2009 67% 22% 11%

October 2004 59% 25% 16%

June 2004 65% 21% 14%

March 2004 62% 23% 15%

If the election were held today, 55% of Maryland voters say theyd vote forMikulski, 38%

would vote for Republican Eric Wargotz, and 7% are undecided.


Mikulski Wargotz Undecided




Further evidence of a polarized

electorate: A better than 3-to-1 job

approval ratio in September 2009for Senator Mikulski has fallen to

less than 1.5-to-1 today


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Direction of State and Economic Conditions

Statewide, 43% say Maryland is moving in the right direction, while 42% say it is moving in the

wrong direction.


Right Direction Wrong Direction

Democrats 67% 20%

Republicans 3% 80%

Independents 42% 42%

Eleven percent of Marylanders say that their familys financial situation is better today than ayear ago, while 30% say its worse today than a year ago, and 59% say that their familysfinancial situation is about the same today as a year ago.

Among Marylanders, 36% think economic conditions in Maryland will be better a year from

now, 18% think economic conditions in Maryland will be worse a year from now, and 46% think

theyll be about the same as they are today.


Better Worse Same




and even further evidence of a

polarized electorate


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QUESTION: What do you consider the most important issue facing Maryland today?

STATEWIDE RESULTS Number Percent

Economy/jobs 445 54.5 %

Education 97 11.9 %

Budget deficit 78 9.6 %

Taxes 76 9.3 %

Environment 23 2.8 %

Illegal immigration 15 1.8 %

Transportation/roads 14 1.7 %

Crime/drugs 13 1.6 %

Health care 7 0.9 %

Affordable housing 7 0.9 %

No answer 41 5.0 %

Total 816 100.0 %


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QUESTION:Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

JOB APPROVAL: BARACK OBAMA Number Percent

Approve 422 51.7 %

Disapprove 353 43.3 %

No answer 41 5.0 %

Total 816 100.0 %

JOB APPROVAL: BARACK OBAMA

Approve Disapprove No answer

PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 361 75 14

80.2% 16.7% 3.1%

Republican 17 228 24

6.3% 84.8% 8.9%

Independent 44 50 3

45.4% 51.5% 3.1%



RACE

White 255 338 30

40.9% 54.3% 4.8%

African-American 160 1 9

94.1% 0.6% 5.3%



GENDER

Male 188 193 19

47.0% 48.3% 4.8%

Female 234 160 22

56.3% 38.5% 5.3%


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QUESTION:Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin OMalley is doing as governor?

JOB APPROVAL: MARTIN O'MALLEY Number Percent

Approve 393 48.2 %


No answer 61 7.5 %

Total 816 100.0 %

JOB APPROVAL: MARTIN O'MALLEY


PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 320 100 30

71.1% 22.2% 6.7%


12.6% 81.4% 5.9%

Independent 39 43 15

40.2% 44.3% 15.5%



RACE

White 242 340 41

38.8% 54.6% 6.6%


85.3% 2.9% 11.8%



GENDER

Male 174 197 29

43.5% 49.3% 7.3%

Female 219 165 32

52.6% 39.7% 7.7%


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QUESTION:Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Bob Ehrlich?

NAME ID: BOB EHRLICH Number Percent

Favorable 330 40.4 %

Unfavorable 279 34.2 %

Neutral 206 25.2 %

Don't Recognize 1 0.1 %

Total 816 100.0 %

NAME ID: BOB EHRLICH

Favorable Unfavorable Neutral

Don't

Recognize

PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 94 226 130 0

20.9% 50.2% 28.9% 0.0%

Republican 200 25 44 0

74.3% 9.3% 16.4% 0.0%

Independent 36 28 32 1

37.1% 28.9% 33.0% 1.0%



Don't

Recognize

RACE

White 286 183 154 0

45.9% 29.4% 24.7% 0.0%

African-American 36 88 45 1

21.2% 51.8% 26.5% 0.6%



Don't

Recognize

GENDER

Male 168 123 108 1

42.0% 30.8% 27.0% 0.3%

Female 162 156 98 0

38.9% 37.5% 23.6% 0.0%


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QUESTION:Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as a United

States Senator?

JOB APPROVAL: BARBARA MIKULSKI Number Percent

Approve 435 53.3 %


No answer 77 9.4 %

Total 816 100.0 %

JOB APPROVAL: BARBARA MIKULSKI


PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 346 86 18

76.9% 19.1% 4.0%


14.9% 68.8% 16.4%


50.5% 34.0% 15.5%



RACE

White 303 261 59

48.6% 41.9% 9.5%


71.2% 20.6% 8.2%



GENDER

Male 200 162 38

50.0% 40.5% 9.5%

Female 235 142 39

56.5% 34.1% 9.4%


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QUESTION:If the November 2010 general election for Governor of Maryland were held

today, for whom would you vote?

The Democratic ticket of Martin OMalley and Anthony Brown, The Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Mary Kane, The Green Party ticket of Maria Allwine and Ken Eidel, The Libertarian Party ticket of Susan Gaztanaga and Doug McNeil. The Constitution Party ticket of Eric Knowles and Michael Hargadon.

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION Number Percent

O'Malley 384 47.1 %

Ehrlich 345 42.3 %

Allwine 15 1.8 %

Gaztanaga 10 1.2 %Knowles 11 1.3 %

Undecided 51 6.3 %

Total 816 100.0 %

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

O'Malley Ehrlich Allwine Gaztanaga Knowles Undecided

PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 324 76 11 6 4 29

72.0% 16.9% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 6.4%

Republican 25 228 1 0 5 10

9.3% 84.8% 0.4% 0.0% 1.9% 3.7%

Independent 35 41 3 4 2 12

36.1% 42.3% 3.1% 4.1% 2.1% 12.4%



RACE

White 238 321 11 6 8 39

38.2% 51.5% 1.8% 1.0% 1.3% 6.3%

African-American 139 14 3 3 2 9

81.8% 8.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.2% 5.3%


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GENDER

Male 171 191 7 1 2 28

42.8% 47.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.5% 7.0%

Female 213 154 8 9 9 23

51.2% 37.0% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 5.5%



REGION

Eastern Sh/So MD 36 65 1 1 3 8

31.6% 57.0% 0.9% 0.9% 2.6% 7.0%

Baltimore City 48 11 3 2 1 4

69.6% 15.9% 4.3% 2.9% 1.4% 5.8%

Baltimore Suburbs 126 151 5 4 3 21

40.6% 48.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 6.8%

Washington Suburbs 148 58 4 3 3 13

64.6% 25.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 5.7%

Western MD 26 60 2 0 1 5

27.7% 63.8% 2.1% 0.0% 1.1% 5.3%


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QUESTION:How would you describe your familys financial situation: would you say youre

doing better today than a year ago, worse today than a year ago, or about the same today as a

year ago?

FINANCIAL SITUATION Number Percent

Better 91 11.2 %

Worse 242 29.7 %

Same 483 59.2 %

Total 816 100.0 %

FINANCIAL SITUATIONBetter Worse Same

PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 67 92 291

14.9% 20.4% 64.7%


3.3% 44.2% 52.4%


15.5% 32.0% 52.6%

FINANCIAL SITUATION

Better Worse Same

RACE

White 51 212 360

8.2% 34.0% 57.8%


21.8% 11.2% 67.1%


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QUESTION:Do you think economic conditions in Maryland will be better a year from now,

worse a year from now, or about the same as they are today?

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS Number Percent

Better 294 36.0 %

Worse 145 17.8 %

Same 377 46.2 %

Total 816 100.0 %

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Better Worse Same

PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 217 31 202

48.2% 6.9% 44.9%


19.7% 31.2% 49.1%


24.7% 30.9% 44.3%

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Better Worse Same

RACE

White 206 130 287

33.1% 20.9% 46.1%


47.1% 7.1% 45.9%


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QUESTION:If the November 2010 general election were held today, for whom would you vote

for United States Senate: Barbara Mikulski, the Democrat or Eric Wargotz, the Republican?

U.S. SENATE ELECTION Number Percent

Mikulski 452 55.4 %

Wargotz 309 37.9 %

Undecided 55 6.7 %

Total 816 100.0 %

U.S. SENATE ELECTION


PARTY AFFILIATION

Democrat 370 57 23

82.2% 12.7% 5.1%


10.8% 84.0% 5.2%


54.6% 26.8% 18.6%



RACE

White 298 297 28

47.8% 47.7% 4.5%


82.9% 2.4% 14.7%



GENDER

Male 198 173 29

49.5% 43.3% 7.3%

Female 254 136 26

61.1% 32.7% 6.3%

Documents

Maryland Poll October 2010