MEETING THE DEMANDS OF A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMY

March 2010

MARYLAND’SFORGOTTEN

MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS

Maryland’s Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs was written by National Skills Coalition (formerly The Workforce Alliance), Washington, D.C., as part of its national Skills2Compete Campaign. The national version of this report, America’s Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs, is available atwww.nationalskillscoalition.org. The state and national efforts of the Skills2Compete campaign are made possible, in part, bygeneral support from National Skills Coalition's national funders including the Ford Foundation,Joyce Foundation, Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, W.K. Kellogg Foundation and Annie E. Casey Foundation. In addition, special thanks to the Ford Foundation for funding related to theproduction and release of this report.

Writing: Bronwyn MauldinData analysis: Andrea MayoDesign: Axie Breen

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

CONTENTS

4 Executive Summary

5 Introduction

7 Maryland’s Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs

11 The Face of Maryland’s Middle-Skill Jobs

14 Maryland’s Middle-Skill Gap Past and Future15 Greater Pain in High Demand Industries15 Maryland Educational Projections: A Continuing Middle-Skill Challenge17 The Middle-Skill Gap and Maryland’s Future Workforce18 An Even Greater Basic Skills Crisis?

19 Closing the Gap19 The Face of Middle-Skill Education and Training20 A 21st-Century Skill Guarantee22 The Benefits and Returns of a 21st-Century Skill Guarantee

24 Conclusion

25 Appendix: Methodology

FIGURES AND TABLES

8 Demand for Middle-Skill Jobs is Strong, Will Remain Strong in Maryland8 Figure 1. Maryland Jobs by Skill Level, 20078 Table 1. Maryland Jobs by Skill Level, 20079 Figure 2. Maryland’s Total Job Openings by Skill Level, 2006-20169 Table 2. Maryland Jobs and Total Job Openings by Skill Level, 2006-2016

12 Thirty Middle-Skill Jobs Maryland Can’t Live Without12 Table 3. Projected Maryland Demand for 30 Middle-Skill Occupations, 2006-2016

13 Green Jobs are Middle-Skill Jobs13 Figure 3. U.S. Employment in Green Industries by Skill Level, 2004

14 Maryland’s Skills Mismatch: A Middle-Skill Gap14 Figure 4. Maryland’s Jobs and Workers by Skill Level, 2007

16 Maryland’s Future Middle-Skill Gap: Educational Attainment Past and Future16 Figure 5. Percentage Change in High-Skill Maryland Workers, 1990-202016 Figure 6. Percentage Change in Middle-Skill Maryland Workers, 1990-202016 Figure 7. Percentage Change in Low-Skill Maryland Workers, 1990-202017 Table 4. Actual and Projected Change in Maryland Workers’ Educational Attainment, 1990-2020

17 Maryland’s Workforce of Tomorrow is in the Workforce Today17 Figure 8. Working Maryland Adults Age 20-64 in the Current and Projected Population, 2005-2020

19 There are Many Different Pathways to Middle-Skill Jobs19 Table 5: Types of Training Programs for Middle-Skill Jobs

HIGHLIGHTS

5 Highlight 1. What is a Middle-Skill Job?10 Highlight 2. Middle-Skill Jobs in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM)11 Highlight 3. Do all Middle-Skill Jobs Pay High Wages?13 Highlight 4. The Middle of the Green Revolution

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With a diversified economy made up of industries from agriculture to high-techbusinesses, Maryland is rated as one of the top states in the country best

prepared to thrive in the 21st century economy. However, there are gaps in theworkforce and in training and education policies that threaten to undermine its strengths.

Middle-skill jobs represent the largest share of jobs in Maryland—some 47 percent—and the largest share of future job openings. Middle-skill jobs are those that require more than a high school diploma but less than a four-year degree. Prior to the recession, Maryland was already experiencing shortages of middle-skill workers in crucialindustries. Much of the job creation fostered by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act willbe in middle-skill jobs. With rising unemployment in the state, this is precisely the time to ensureMaryland is training the middle-skill workforce that will be critical to economic recovery and long-term success.

Addressing the need for middle-skill workers will require attention not only to educationalopportunities for young people, but also for those already in the workforce. Two-thirds of thepeople who will be in Maryland’s workforce in the year 2020 were already working adults in2005—long past the traditional high school-to college pipeline.

Who are middle-skill workers? They are the construction workers who build and repairMaryland’s bridges and roads. The health care technicians who care for Marylanders and theirloved ones. Truckers who keep Maryland’s stores supplied. Police and firefighters who keepMaryland safe.

Federal funds from the stimulus bill are expected to create millions of new jobs and many of these will be middle-skill, especially in green jobs, construction, manufacturing andtransportation. Matching the skills of Maryland’s workforce to meet this demand will help itseconomy recover more quickly and prepare the state for better times ahead. But it doesn’t endthere. Retirement of large numbers of baby boomers will keep demand for middle-skill workershigh for years to come.

Maryland can take proactive policy actions to align its workforce and education resources tobetter meet the state’s labor market demand. Maryland can also make investments in trainingprograms that will train many more residents who are laid off, or working in low-skill jobs forbetter, more plentiful middle-skill jobs and careers.

If Maryland is to realize its full economic potential, educational access must reflect thedemands of a 21st-century economy and the realities of the 21st-century workforce. Thefollowing vision can reshape the state’s workforce and education policies and investments tomeet these new needs:

Every Marylander should have access to the equivalent of at least two years of education ortraining past high school—leading to a vocational credential, industry certification, or one’sfirst two years of college—to be pursued at whatever point and pace makes sense forindividual workers and industries. Every person must also have access to the basic skillsneeded to pursue such education.

Businesses, labor, educators, community-based organizations and others must work together on this ambitious goal. Policymakers must step in with strong political leadership and commitment to ensure that Maryland has the middle-skill workforce needed to recover and thrive.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Maryland’s economy reflects its unique geography. Rich soil and a long coastlinemean agriculture and fishing have long been a strong part of the economy.

Proximity to the nation’s capital has attracted many industries serving the federal government including defense and telecommunications. Alongside them,

Maryland has attracted a host of information technology, biotechnology and other high techcompanies. Between 2002 and 2007, bioscience, aerospace, construction, and healthcare showedthe fastest job growth rates, with healthcare and hospitality and tourism adding the most jobs.Healthcare and computer occupations are among the occupations with the fastest projectedgrowth rates.1

A 2008 report by the Kauffman Foundation ranked Maryland third in the nation among statesbest prepared to thrive in the new economy.2 Maryland has risen steadily in those ranks, from 15in 1999 to 5 in 2002. Education Week ranked Maryland’s state public education system numberone in the nation in its 2009 and 2010 Quality Counts surveys.3 These rankings are in no small partbecause of government investments in thestate’s education system, as well as in itsworkforce and industries. The Kauffman reportranks Maryland as second in the nation in bothworkforce education and in federal, state,university and nonprofit investments in researchand development.

Thanks to those investments in educationand workforce training, 88 percent ofMarylanders have at least a high school degreeand 35 percent have a college degree or more,both above the national average.4 Thatworkforce has played a key role in the state’sgrowth and success in recent years. This sameworkforce will be essential to Maryland’s abilityto rebuild and thrive after the economicdownturn.

New research on projected job openings andon retirement trends in the workforce showsthat the largest share of jobs in Maryland todayis in fact middle-skill jobs. On top of that, fundsfrom the American Recovery and ReinvestmentAct (ARRA, also known as the Recovery Act) areexpected to increase the number of middle-skilljobs in Maryland and nationwide. Middle-skill jobs are those that require more than a high schooldiploma but less than a four-year degree. The data further show that middle-skill jobs will makeup the largest segment of Maryland’s total labor market in the foreseeable future.

Despite its strong record of postsecondary education and workforce training, Maryland willexperience shortages of the middle-skill workers critical to economic recovery and long-termsuccess. Prior to the recession, businesses across the state were reporting the negative impact ofskilled worker shortages on their productivity and growth. To maintain its edge and ensure it can

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INTRODUCTION

HIGHLIGHT 1What is a middle-skill job?

Some 42 percent all job openings in Marylandbetween now and 2016 will be in middle-skilljobs.

What is a middle-skill job? One that requires more than a high schooldiploma but less than a four-year collegedegree.

Who provides middle-skill training?Community colleges, private career schools,apprenticeship programs, and community-based training organizations.

How can the state meet the demand formiddle-skill and high-skill jobs?Every working Marylander should have accessto the equivalent of at least two years ofeducation or training past high school andthe basic skills needed to enter that training.

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take advantage of the job creation generated by the economic recovery, Maryland must invest inboth high- and middle-skill education and training to ensure businesses have the talent theyneed. At the same time Maryland also must make investments to improve the basic skills of itslow-skill workers.

Maryland has some important policies in place to address the state’s shortage of middle-skillworkers. Guaranteed Access Grants ensure that more residents can gain in-demand credentials atthe state’s two-year and four-year colleges by covering the entire unmet financial need for low-income students. The program’s full-time attendance requirement makes it unavailable to mostadult students who balance work and school, but the state’s Part Time grant ensures low-incomeworking adults who attend school part-time can secure tuition assistance.

Maryland also has taken steps to ensure that adults who don’t have the necessary basic skillsto enter postsecondary education and training can access an educational pathway to skilled jobs.In the spring of 2008, the General Assembly approved legislation that laid the groundwork for theGovernor’s initiative to realign the state’s adult education system to better connect low-skilledindividuals with in-demand middle-skill credentials and educational pathways to careers.

And growing enrollments and completions in high school Career and Technology Educationprograms are increasing the pipeline of middle-skill workers.

These are important pieces of a strategy to address the state’s middle-skill gap, but more canbe done.

Maryland needs a bold and broad vision to address the educational and economic challengesfacing the state during these tough economic times and beyond. Maryland needs a trulytransformative vision that allows every worker to be a part of economic recovery:guaranteed access to two years of postsecondary education or training.Every Marylander must have the opportunity to earn the equivalent of at least two years ofeducation or training past high school that leads to a vocational credential, industry certification,or one's first two years of college. It must be available at whatever point and pace makes sensefor individual workers and industries. The state must further ensure that every Marylander hasaccess to the basic skills needed to pursue such education.

America has done this successfully before. There are precedents for resetting and raising thebar for educational attainment, and there is strong evidence that such broad human capitalinvestments yield substantial dividends for both workers and businesses.

Maryland’s need for qualified middle-skill workers today is greater than ever before. Federalinvestments from the Recovery Act will create a boom in industries with predominantly middle-skill jobs, such as construction, manufacturing and transportation. Matching the skills of thestate’s workforce with this demand will help the economy recover more quickly, take advantage of the resulting job creation, and prepare Maryland for better times ahead.

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MARYLAND’S FORGOTTEN MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS

Conventional wisdom holds that America has evolved into an “hourglass” or“dumbbell” economy: a bifurcated labor market with a small number of highly

skilled, highly paid workers and a much larger number of low-skill, low-paid workers.Many people believe that high-skill jobs requiring a college education are the only key to

economic competitiveness and success. Within such a model, middle-skill occupations—the jobsthat fueled the expansion of the world’s largest economy in the 1950s and 60s and provided thefoundation for a robust American middle class—are on the verge of extinction.

It’s a bleak picture, to be sure. It’s also a myth. The truth is that middle-skill jobs, which require more than a high school diploma

but less than a four-year degree, currently make up the largest segment of jobs inthe U.S. economy, and will continue to do so for years to come. While middle-skill jobshave declined slightly as a portion of total employment nationwide, roughly half of allemployment today is still in middle-skill occupations. And nearly half (about 45 percent) of all jobopenings between 2004 and 2014 will be at the middle-skill level. This compares with one-third ofjob openings in high-skill occupational categories and 22 percent in occupations requiring nomore than a high school degree.5

The national picture holds true in Maryland as well. Nearly half of all Maryland jobs in 2008 –46 percent – were middle-skill jobs, representing almost 1.2 million workers (Fig. 1, Table 1). Thedemand for middle-skill workers in the state will remain high in the decade between 2006 and2016, with more than 434,000 middle-skill job openings—42 percent of all job openings—expected during this time. This compares to low-skill jobs and high-skill jobs, which will accountfor 23 percent and 35 percent of openings respectively (Fig. 2, Table 2)

What’s more, as economic recovery funds are invested, a large share of the jobs they create willbe middle-skill jobs building and repairing roads, manufacturing renewable energy products andcaring for America’s aging population. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s, projects that bythe fourth quarter of 2012, stimulus spending from ARRA will substantially improve employmentnationwide in several industries dominated by middle-skill jobs, including construction (802,800jobs), manufacturing (589,700) and transportation and warehousing (129,600).6

Despite these numbers, policymakers at both the federal and state levels have increasinglyfocused on college and university education, without proportionate attention to middle-skill jobs,and the education and training investments needed to ensure that workers have the skills theyneed to succeed in these vital occupations. This represents a lost opportunity to invest inMaryland’s immediate recovery and long-term economic future.

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TABLE 1. Maryland Jobs by Skill Level, 2008

Employment Percent

Total, All Occupations 2,561,540 100.0%

Management 144,520 5.6%Business & Financial 138,170 5.4%Professional and Related 603,250 23.6%

Total, High Skill 885,940 34.6%

Sales and Related 267,370 10.4%Office and Administrative Support 424,980 16.6%Construction 143,000 5.6%Installation and Repair 97,730 3.8%Production 99,580 3.9%Transportation and Material Moving 149,560 5.8%

Total, Middle Skill 1,182,220 46.2%

Service Occupations 490,410 19.1%Farming/Fishing/Forestry Occupations 2,970 0.1%

Total, Low Skill 493,380 19.3%

Source: Calculated by National Skills Coalition from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website

FIGURE 1. Maryland Jobs by Skill Level, 2008

High

Middle

Low

35%

19%

46% High35%

Low19%

Middle46%

Source: Calculated by National Skills Coalition from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

Demand for Middle-Skill Jobs is Strong, Will Remain Strong in Maryland

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TABLE 2. Maryland Jobs and Total Job Openings by Skill Level, 2006-2016

Employment Job Openings

2006 2016 Number %

Total, All Occupations 2,759,535 3,147,180 1,027,235 100.0%

Management 164,490 182,490 53,560 5.2%Business & Financial 151,465 175,405 50,475 4.9%Professional and Related 613,965 736,735 250,005 24.3%

Total, High Skill 929,920 1,094,630 354,040 34.5%

Sales and Related 304,700 330,170 122,125 11.9%Office and Administrative Support 438,215 477,190 140,850 13.7%Construction 184,350 221,295 68,660 6.7%Installation and Repair 107,730 119,410 29,680 2.9%Production 102,565 98,565 22,865 2.2%Transportation and Material Moving 160,420 172,650 50,150 4.9%

Total, Middle Skill 1,297,980 1,419,280 434,330 42.3%

Service Occupations 525,575 627,160 237,215 23.1%Farming/Fishing/Forestry Occupations 6,065 6,105 1,650 0.2%

Total, Low Skill 531,640 633,265 238,865 23.3%

Source: Calculated by National Skills Coalition from Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation data.

FIGURE 2. Maryland’s Total Job Openings by Skill Level, 2006-2016

High Skill35%

Low Skill23%

Middle Skill42% Jobs that require more

than a high schooldiploma but less thana four-year degree

Jobs that require ahigh school diplomaor less

Jobs that requirea four-yearcollege degreeor more

Source: Calculated by National Skills Coalition from Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation data. Total number of jobs openings over the ten year period, including new jobs and replacement jobs created by retirement and turnover.

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HIGHLIGHT 2Middle-Skill Jobs in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM)

Policymakers have become increasingly concerned about U.S. global competitiveness in recent years,and a broad consensus has developed about the need for a strong science, technology, engineering,and math (STEM) workforce to support innovation industries and emerging technologies. In particular,business and political leaders have called for increasing the number of students receiving bachelor oradvanced degrees in these fields.

However, these highly skilled professionals aren’t the only STEM workers in short supply. Employershave indicated there is a significant shortage of the technicians and middle-skill workers needed toimplement the new technologies developed by highly skilled innovators.

A 2005 National Association of Manufacturers report found that while 35 percent ofmanufacturers anticipated a shortage of scientists and engineers, more than twice as manyrespondents anticipated a shortage of skilled production workers, precisely the kind of middle-skilljobs that require more than high school but less than a four-year degree.7

In a recent solicitation for grant proposals, the U.S. Department of Labor emphasized theimportance of the middle-skill STEM workforce:

“The STEM workforce pipeline challenge is not just about the supply and quality of the baccalaureateand advance degree earners. A large percentage of the workforce in industries and occupations that relyon STEM knowledge and skills are technicians, including others who enter and advance in their fieldthrough subbaccalaureate degrees and certificates or through workplace training. Creating interest andpreparing more Americans to be productive in STEM-related jobs will require attention to segments ofthe workforce that are often overlooked in STEM discussions: incumbent workers who need skillsupgrading, dislocated workers who are trying to find new jobs in industries with a future, andindividuals from groups traditionally underrepresented in STEM fields.”8

The story is similar in Maryland. A 2007 report found workforce shortages in the state’s bioscienceindustry across all skill levels. It further found that almost 38 percent of the jobs in Maryland’sbioscience firms could be filled “with persons with less than an Associate’s degree, presuming theyhave adequate training.”9

A truly comprehensive innovation agenda must address the demand for both highly educatedinnovation professionals and the middle-skill workers needed to implement their innovations. Thesemiddle-skill workers are at the roots of a successful STEM strategy, nationally and in Maryland.

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What is a middle-skill job? It requires education or training past high school, butnot a four year degree. You may not know it, but you probably see people working

in middle-skill jobs every day.In fact, Maryland’s communities rely on middle-skill jobs. Middle-skill workers are

the police officers and fire fighters who keep Maryland safe. They are the medicaltechnicians and therapists who keep Maryland healthy. They are the air trafficcontrollers, electricians, and mechanics who keep Maryland’s infrastructure upand running. These are local, hands-on jobs, meaning they are unlikely to be outsourced toother countries.

Many of these are well-paid jobs, offering Maryland workers a chance at economic security andprosperity. As illustrated in Table 3, these are jobs with good earning potential. Many offer medianearnings that exceed the Maryland overall median for 2008 of $37,780.

THE FACE OF MARYLAND’S MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS

HIGHLIGHT 3Do all middle-skill jobs pay high wages?

Of course, not all middle-skill occupations pay well or have meaningful advancement opportunities.Skills are only part of the economic success equation. But nationally, growth in demand for manymiddle-skill occupations has been fast enough to generate not only strong employment growth, butalso rapid growth in wages.10

Regional research supports the connection between many middle-skill jobs and good wages. Forexample, there were 389,620 middle-skill jobs in Maryland with median annual earnings above theoverall state median of $37,780 per year.11

At the national level, the data tell a similar story. Between 1997 and 2005, American workers onthe whole saw an overall real wage increase of just 5 percent (adjusting for inflation). At the sametime, many middle-skill occupations saw significantly higher wage increases.

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TABLE 3. Projected Maryland Demand for 30 Middle-Skill Occupations, 2006-2016

Employment Net Change Job MedianOpenings Earnings

2006 2016 Number % 2007ComputersSupport Specialists 11,870 13,750 1,880 15.8% 5,545 $46,890Specialists, Other 12,940 13,635 695 5.4% 4,130 $86,420

ConstructionCarpenters 31,630 38,930 7,300 23.1% 11,575 $39,160Electricians 16,915 19,640 2,725 16.1% 7,080 $47,100Painters 9,925 12,895 2,970 29.9% 4,735 $33,920Operating Engineers 7,450 8,440 990 13.3% 2,435 $40,350Plumbers 12,835 15,360 2,525 19.7% 5,170 $47,950

HealthcareDental Hygienists 2,710 3,475 765 28.2% 1,285 $68,840Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 1,030 1,380 350 34.0% 490 $67,050Licensed Practical Nurses 10,415 12,715 2,300 22.1% 5,140 $46,690Medical Lab Technicians 2,550 3,115 565 22.2% 950 $40,410Radiology Technicians 3,830 4,940 1,110 29.0% 1,630 $59,290Respiratory Therapists 1,750 2,545 795 45.4% 1,055 $59,400Surgical Technologists 1,515 2,200 685 45.2% 1,150 $44,190

Installation, Maintenance,and RepairAuto Mechanics 17,330 19,215 1,885 10.9% 5,365 $37,530Bus/Truck Mechanics 3,360 3,840 480 14.3% 1,210 $43,450Heating and AC Installers 7,500 8,625 1,125 15.0% 2,440 $44,660Heavy Equipment Mechanics 2,185 2,445 260 11.9% 690 $42,840Industrial Machinery Mechanics 3,020 3,450 430 14.2% 940 $46,560

TransportationCommercial Pilots 175 190 15 8.6% 65 $54,830Heavy Truck Drivers 26,905 29,595 2,690 10.0% 7,465 $37,770

Public SafetyEmergency Medical Technicians 3,330 3,895 565 17.0% 945 $39,060Fire Fighters 5,360 5,880 520 9.7% 2,470 $47,360Police Officers 17,505 19,135 1,630 9.3% 6,310 $51,310

OtherArchitectural Drafters 1,665 1,775 110 6.6% 590 $42,690Claims Adjusters 7,500 7,565 65 0.9% 1,975 $53,950Civil Engineering Technicians 2,095 2,350 255 12.2% 660 $48,050Legal Secretaries 3,700 4,125 425 11.5% 1,010 $39,470Machinists 3,805 3,760 -45 -1.2% 590 $42,390Paralegals 5,680 6,810 1,130 19.9% 1,875 $47,090

*2007 median annual earnings for all occupations in Maryland = $36,350

Source: Projections data tabulated using Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation data. Median Earnings data fromthe Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Thirty Middle-Skill Jobs Maryland Can’t Live Without

HIGHLIGHT 4The Middle of the Green Revolution

More than ever before, policymakers and business leaders are paying attention to clean energyindustries and technologies, which promise profound environmental and economic benefits for allAmericans. One of the highest priorities in federal and state economic recovery policies has beenstrong investment in creation of a “green economy” and “green jobs.”

But what are those jobs? A recent report by the Center on Wisconsin Strategy, the Apollo Alliance, and National Skills

Coalition (formerly The Workforce Alliance) found that the skills needed in the green economy closelymirror the middle-skill demands of the labor market as a whole. Greener Pathways examines emergingopportunities in the energy efficiency, wind, and biofuels sectors, and urges stakeholders to scale upgreen job training by leveraging existing state and local workforce development systems.12

Green Jobs are Middle-Skill Jobs

FIGURE 3. U.S. Employment in Green Industries by Skill Level, 2004

In 2008, the Maryland Governor’s Workforce Investment Board organized an Energy InitiativeSteering Committee to analyze workforce demand and supply, and to develop strategies and policiesthat will assist the Governor, Maryland’s workforce system and the industries of the green economy tomeet workforce needs.

Training initiatives to fill middle-skill jobs in the green economy are already underway in Maryland.The Maryland Energy Administration (MEA), the Department of Housing and CommunityDevelopment (DHCD) and a consortium of five of the state’s larger community colleges have createdthe Maryland Weatherization Training Program for home energy auditor and weatherizationtechnicians.

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High-Skill13%

Low-Skill21%

Middle-Skill66%

HighSkill12%

Low-Skill33%Middle-Skill

56%

High-Skill7%

Low-Skill22%

Middle-Skill71%

Energy Efficiency Wind Biofuels

Source: Tabulated by National Skills Coalition from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

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Maryland’s economic recovery and long-term future depend in part on ensuring anadequate source of skilled workers to fill middle-skill jobs. Those middle-skill jobs are

going to comprise the main portion of employment and worker-generated economic activity inthe state.

Maryland has been experiencing a shortage of middle-skill workers (Fig. 4). In 2007, about47 percent of all jobs were classified as middle-skill, but only 37 percent of Maryland workers had the education and training required to fill those positions. In reality, the gap was likely evengreater in certain industries because many workers trained to the middle-skill level – and eventhose with bachelor’s degrees – did not have the specific technical skills needed. This means thatthousands of well-paid and rewarding jobs were going unfilled in the state, in industries that areand will be essential to Maryland’s economic portfolio.

Maryland’s Skills Mismatch: A Middle-Skill Gap

FIGURE 4. Maryland’s Jobs and Workers by Skill Level, 2007

While Maryland, like the nation, is experiencing high levels of unemployment due to thecurrent economic downturn, as the state moves into recovery employers will once again face thechallenge of finding qualified middle-skill workers. This could inhibit economic growth. What’smore, as federal Recovery Act dollars continue to flow to the states, a major portion of theresulting job growth will be at the middle-skill level, making middle-skill training a key piece ofthe recovery puzzle. Guaranteed access to middle-skill training is a crucial investment right nowto ensure the state’s workforce will be trained and ready to be part of the economic recovery.

Maryland’s middle-skill challenge is exacerbated by problems at both the high and low ends of the skills spectrum. At the high end, education policies that focus exclusively on four-yearcollege degrees mean that as baby boomers retire and younger workers get older, the share of

MARYLAND’S MIDDLE-SKILL GAP PAST AND FUTURE

High-Skill Jobs

High-Skill Workers

34%

42%

Middle-Skill Jobs

Middle-Skill Workers

47%

37%

Low-Skill Jobs

Low-Skill Workers

19%

21%

Sources: Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, and Regulation & US Bureau of the Census

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middle-skill workers available will fall, even as demand for those workers rises. At the low endthere are a growing number of residents who lack the basic reading, math and other basic skillsneeded to qualify for middle-skill training programs.

Greater Pain in High Demand IndustriesState and regional data underscore the challenges facing Maryland. In addition to the demand formiddle-skill workers in STEM occupations mentioned above, Maryland’s manufacturers, healthcare providers, and information technology industries show robust demand for middle-skillworkers.

A recent report from the Manufacturing Steering Committee of the Governor’s WorkforceInvestment Board found that the growth potential of advanced manufacturing in Maryland issignificant. In 2008, manufacturing in Maryland accounted for over $15.2 billion of the state’sGross Domestic Product, an increase of 19 percent from 1997. The report cited a number ofmanufacturing occupations expected to see growth in the next ten years, many of which requiremiddle-skill credentials.13

Maryland manufacturers, like those across the nation report challenges to finding middle-skillworkers trained in advanced manufacturing processes. A 2008 report from the NationalAssociation of Manufacturers found that more than 80 percent of U.S. manufacturers report anoverall shortage of qualified employees that is affecting their ability to meet customer demands.Nearly half of small and medium manufacturers report that ‘finding qualified employees’ is oneof the most serious problems facing their company.14

Maryland’s healthcare industry remains one of the few stable industries in the state during the current recession and continues to face a shortage of nurses, as well as other healthcaretechnician occupations. The state is projecting shortages in middle-skill occupations such assurgical technologists, respiratory therapists and technicians, radiologic technicians, physical and occupational therapy assistants, medical record technicians, medical and clinical laboratorytechnicians, and dental hygienists.15

These industries, which already have a strong presence in Maryland, are some of the sameindustries expected to see growth as a result of Recovery Act job creation, suggesting they couldface even greater challenges in finding middle-skill workers in the near future.

Maryland Educational Projections: A Continuing Middle-Skill ChallengeMaryland educational projections (Figs. 5, 6 and 7) suggest that the state is likely to see ashortage of middle-skill workers in the future. During the fifteen years between 1990 and 2005,the state saw an increase in residents with educational attainment at the high-skill level and adecrease in those at the low-skill level. Residents with middle-skill education also fell.Maryland’s projected education trends for the subsequent fifteen years suggestthat middle-skill worker shortages will continue. The proportion of high-skill workers inMaryland’s workforce is likely to fall slightly and the percentage of middle-skill workers isprojected to increase only slightly.

Immigration trends will do little to boost this minor increase in middle-skill workers, as mostworkforce growth in the state due to in-migration will likely occur at the low-end of the skillspectrum or at the high-end of the skill spectrum (for example, engineers brought in fromoverseas through H-1B visas).

If not addressed, these educational trends will only make it harder for Maryland businesses to meet their needs from the state’s available workforce, stifling economic recovery and growth, while limiting opportunity for thousands of Maryland workers to advance within the state’s economy.

Maryland’s Future Middle-Skill Gap: Educational Attainment Past and Future

FIGURE 5. Percentage Change in High-Skill Maryland Workers, 1990-2020

The number of workers prepared for high-skill jobs rose by nearly nine percent between 1990and 2005. Their ranks are expected to fall by one percent by the year 2020 (Fig 5, Table 4).

FIGURE 6. Percentage Change in Middle-Skill Maryland Workers, 1990-2020

The number of workers prepared for what is the largest share of jobs in the state–middle-skilljobs–fell by nearly two percent from 1990 to 2005. Their ranks are projected to rise less thanone percent by the year 2020 (Fig 6, Table 4), even as demand for those jobs increases at ahigher rate.

FIGURE 7. Percentage Change in Low-Skill Maryland Workers, 1990-2020

After falling by nearly seven percent since 1990, the number of workers prepared for low-skilljobs is expected to rise almost imperceptibly by the year 2020 (Fig 7, Table 4).

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Sources, Figures 5-7: 1990-2005 attainment calculated by National Skills Coalition using December 1990 and 2005 CPS data. Currentattainment calculated by National Skills Coalition using December 2005 CPS data.. 2020 attainment projected by National SkillsCoalition using demographic data from the December 2005 CPS and population projections calculated by RAND California Statistics.

2005-2020 -1.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0%

1990-2005 8.7%

2005-2020 0.7%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0%

1990-2005 -1.8%

2005-2020 0.3%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0%

1990-2005 -6.9%

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The Middle-Skill Gap and Maryland’s Future WorkforceMaryland cannot address its middle-skill challenges by focusing its education and training dollarssolely on the next generation of workers who are coming out of high school. The fact is thatnearly two-thirds of the people who will be in Maryland’s workforce in the year2020 were already working adults in 2005—long past the traditional high school-to college pipeline (Fig. 8).

Maryland should take proactive policy actions to realign its workforce and education resourcesto better meet the state’s labor market demand. This also must include major investments intraining programs that will prepare many more Maryland residents who are now at the low-skilllevel for middle-skill jobs and careers.

Maryland’s Workforce of Tomorrow is in the Workforce Today

FIGURE 8. Working Maryland Adults Age 20-64 in the Current and Projected Population, 2005-2020

TABLE 4. Actual and Projected Change in Maryland Workers across Skill Levels, 1990 - 2020

Change Change1990 2005 2020 1990-2005 2005-2020

Low-Skill 29.9% 22.9% 23.2% -6.9% 0.3%

Middle-Skill 40.2% 38.4% 39.0% -1.8% 0.7%

High-Skill 30.0% 38.7% 37.7% 8.7% -1.0%

Low-Skill 788,537 662,959 762,539 -125,578 99,580

Middle-Skill 1,060,377 1,109,672 1,282,470 49,294 172,799

High-Skill 790,981 1,119,510 1,239,431 328,530 119,920

Total 2,639,896 2,892,140 3,284,440 252,246 392,299

Source: Current and past attainment calculated by National Skills Coalition using December 1990 and 2005 CPS data. Current and pasttotal labor force estimated by the Maryland State Data Center. 2020 attainment projected by National Skills Coalition using demographicdata from the December 2005 CPS and population projections calculated by RAND California Statistics.

Source: Calculated by National Skills Coalition using population projections from RAND California Statistics.

2005

2010

2015

2020

2005 workforce (3,231,962 workers)

400,908

827,355

1,267,077

2005 workforce is 88% of 2010 workforce (2,954,369 workers)

2005 workforce is 76% of 2015 workforce (2,617,355 workers)

2005 workforce is 64% of 2020 workforce (2,207,420 workers)

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An Even Greater Basic Skills Crisis?As Holzer and Lerman point out in America’s Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs, the data supportingeducation demand projections probably underplays the need for more broadly based basic skillseducation nationally.16

Despite the increases in U.S. educational attainment over the last twenty years, the NationalAssessment of Adult Literacy (NAAL) indicates only a slight increase in quantitative (math) skillsbetween 1992 and 2003, and no improvement at all for prose and document literacy. Nationally,93 million adults lack the literacy to participate in postsecondary education and training. Thismeans that tens of millions of Americans cannot access middle-skill education and trainingprograms because they lack basic English and math skills, or do not have a high school education.

Even for those who enter postsecondary education, basic skills can be a barrier to success.Nearly two-thirds of two year college students must take at least one remedial course.17

Like the nation as a whole, Maryland faces substantial challenges when it comes to basic skills.In 2003, eleven percent of Marylanders lacked basic prose literacy skills.18 Over 730,000 Marylandresidents do not have a high school diploma or have limited English speaking ability.19 Only 7percent of Maryland adults with less than a high school diploma are enrolled in adult basiceducation, and only 9 percent of Maryland residents with limited English proficiency are enrolledin English as a Second Language (ESL) classes.20

Like the national picture, basic skill challenges face Marylanders who are able to enroll inpostsecondary education. In 2004-2005, 36 percent of Maryland’s two- and four-year collegestudents were enrolled in remedial math, 17 percent in remedial English, and 20 percent inremedial reading.21

Finally, basic skill challenges face many Marylanders who may be trained already to fill high-demand middle- and high-skill jobs, but lack the necessary English language skills. Between 2000and 2008, immigrants accounted for more than half of Maryland’s population growth. Manyhighly skilled immigrants in Maryland work in unskilled jobs because they lack the essentialEnglish skills to enter high-demand jobs for which they are occupationally trained.22

This evidence suggests that Maryland faces challenges in meeting the basic skillattainment levels needed to grow its middle-skill workforce. With the right basic skillstraining, many more Marylanders could prepare to enter and succeed in middle-skill training andmiddle-skill jobs.

Recognizing these challenges and opportunities, Maryland’s Governor Martin O’Malleyproposed moving the state’s adult education system under the state’s workforce system to alignadult basic education and workforce skills training. In the spring of 2008, the General Assemblyapproved legislation that laid the groundwork for that realignment. The move will create alearning continuum that better aligns adult education, skills training and access to actual jobopenings. It also is expected to increase access to education and training for low-skill adults byleveraging the funds and resources available in both the adult learning and workforce systems.

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The Face of Middle-Skill Education and TrainingWho provides training and education for middle-skill jobs? The good news for

Marylanders is that there are many different options. While education for high-skill jobs is limited to college or post-graduate degrees,

education for middle-skill jobs can come in many different forms (Table 5). The most commonly-known setting is community and technical colleges, but they are not the only place. Middle-skilleducation and job training programs include occupational certificates, associate’s degrees,apprenticeship programs—and can be found in many different settings, including community andtechnical colleges, community based training organizations, private career schools, andworkplaces.

An associate’s degree allows students to enter the workforce immediately upon completion ofthe degree. Associate’s degrees are generally required for occupations such as licensed practicalnurse, radiation therapist, and computer specialists. Vocational certificates guarantee certificationof the knowledge and skills needed to perform the duties of a given occupation, according toregulations or nationally accredited standards. They generally require less classroom time thanassociate’s degrees, offering a path for individuals to develop and verify specific skills sets. Theyare also extremely useful for individuals already in the workplace as a means of reinforcingexisting skills sets and acquiring new skills. Examples of jobs where a vocational certificate couldbe valuable include dental and legal assistants, auto mechanics and fire fighters.

Apprenticeships are supervised employment programs that combine classroom instruction andon-the-job training. Generally offered directly by employers or through labor/managementpartnerships, apprenticeships can be found in such high-demand careers as electrician, aircraftmechanic, or plumber.

There are Many Different Pathways to Middle-Skill Jobs

TABLE 5: Types of Training Programs for Middle-Skill Jobs

Associate’s degree Vocational certificate Apprenticeship

Time to complete Two years, full time Up to a year Two to four years

Availability Community college, Community college, Partnership betweenprivate career school community-based unions and employers

organization, technicalschool, workplace

Examples of Licensed practical nurse, Dental assistant, legal Electrician, aircrafttypes of jobs radiation therapist, assistant, auto mechanic, mechanic, plumber

computer specialist firefighter

CLOSING THE GAP

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For workers whose basic skills are not at a level that allows them to enter these types ofeducation and training programs, there are program options that teach English, basic reading andmath skills in the context of occupational skills. These programs often connect to a specific jobthat is on a defined career ladder or else to further education that results in a middle-skillcredential.

In order to develop Maryland’s middle-skill workforce to meet the demands of the economicrecovery and beyond, the state should target resources toward a variety of middle-skill and basicskill training programs. Maryland can continue to build more flexible, demand-driven systemsthat allow working adults to return to training and education from time to time, to upgrade theirskills and to earn additional certifications and degrees.

Maryland has a number of exemplary middle-skill education and training opportunities thatcan serve diverse populations. These are just a few examples:

© To address the needs of adults with limited English as well as the state’s nursing shortages,the Montgomery County Latino Healthcare Initiative, Holy Cross Hospital, MontgomeryCollege and other local partners developed a pilot program for licensure of foreign-trainednursing professionals.

© Entry-level workers with limited basic skills can enroll in the Pre-Allied Health Bridge Programoffered by several Baltimore hospitals in partnership with the Baltimore Alliance for Careers inHealthcare. The program provides basic skills instruction in the context of occupationallearning. This allows participants to enter postsecondary training that results in recognizedcertifications in the allied health field.

© The BioTechnical Institute of Maryland’s Laboratory Associates Program provides tuition-freetraining in basic laboratory skills to unemployed and under-employed Maryland residents,offering them a chance to be a part of the state’s solution to STEM workforce shortages.

© For high school students interested in the possibilities of high-demand hands-on careers,Maryland’s Career and Technical Education program in the state’s high schools preparesstudents for both postsecondary education and careers in middle-skill occupations. CTEenrollment in Maryland grew by 7.6 percent between 2006 and 2007.

A 21st-Century Skill GuaranteeIf Maryland is to realize its full economic potential, educational access must reflect the demandsof a 21st-century economy and the realities of the 21st-century workforce. Given that the largestportion of Maryland jobs are at the middle-skill level and the majority of future workers arealready in the workforce today:

Every Marylander should have access to the equivalent of at least two years of education ortraining past high school—leading to a vocational credential, industry certification, or one’sfirst two years of college—to be pursued at whatever point and pace makes sense forindividual workers and industries. Every person must also have access to the basic skillsneeded to pursue such education.

It’s an ambitious goal, but not an unprecedented one. Throughout the nation’s history, federaland state policymakers have elevated educational guarantees to meet the changing skillrequirements brought on by economic and technological change. And, indeed, leaders in

21

Maryland have already taken some steps to address similar challenges in the 21st century. Butthere is more to be done.

Historical PrecedentsAs the nation transitioned from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy in the mid-nineteenth century, policymakers across the United States realized that a broader skill set wasrequired from a much greater segment of the population. This was one important factor in thedevelopment of the high school movement to provide a free public education to all citizens.Between 1910 and 1930, the proportion of seventeen-year-olds in secondary education increasedfrom less than 9 percent to 30 percent, fueling the expansion of America’s great cities andindustries. By the late 1990s, nearly 70 percent of U.S. students were graduating with a highschool diploma. Universal secondary education is now understood as one of the fundamentalguarantees the U.S. makes to its citizens.

By the middle of the 20th century, society realized that postsecondary education and trainingwould allow the United States to flourish. This was the atmosphere in which the GI Bill waspassed in 1944. Between 1944 and 1956, nearly 8 million returning servicemen andservicewomen used the GI Bill. People pursuing four-year college degrees accounted for about aquarter (2.2. million) of those benefiting from the program. But a much larger—and typicallyforgotten—6 million GIs pursued middle-skill training. As such, a broad-basedinvestment in middle skills was a major part of America’s post-war prosperity.

State Skill GuaranteesUnfortunately, more recent federal investments in postsecondary education and job training havebeen in decline. The Recovery Act makes significant contributions to those education and trainingprograms, but it constitutes a one-time, relatively short term investment. The overall long-termtrend has been downward.

However, some forward-thinking states and policymakers have been making vitalcommitments to the skills and economic security of their citizens, recognizing that a newminimum level of skills and education should be made available to state residents.

For example, the Georgia HOPE Grant program, funded with lottery proceeds, pays tuition,fees, and up to $300 for books for Georgia residents to earn a certificate approved by the stateDepartment of Technical and Adult Education (or a comparable program of study approved by theBoard of Regents) in a public technical college or public college or university. The HOPE Grantprogram does not have income- or merit-based criteria for eligibility (although recipients mustmake satisfactory academic progress while receiving it) and allows part-time attendance.According to the state Department of Technical and Adult Education, enrollment in publictechnical colleges has increased by 110 percent since the HOPE program began.

In 2007, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm announced the creation of the No Worker LeftBehind program in her State of the State address. The program, officially launched in August2007, pays tuition of up to $5,000 per year for two years for 100,000 Michigan workers to pursuea degree or certificate at a community college, university, or other approved training program in ahigh-demand occupation (determined on a regional basis). The state reprogrammed $40 million infederal funds—primarily from the Workforce Investment Act and Trade Adjustment Assistanceprograms—to support the initiative. The separate Michigan Promise program guarantees everynew high school graduate a $4,000 scholarship for completing two years of postsecondaryeducation at an eligible state institution.

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In Washington, the state legislature in 2007 authorized $11.5 million per year for theOpportunity Grant program, which covers tuition for up to 45 academic credits at any statetechnical or community college, and up to $1,000 per year for books and supplies. AnyWashington resident student with a family income at or below 200 percent of the federal povertylevel is eligible to participate in the program.

The Opportunity Grant model was constructed to help nontraditional students advance intohigh-demand, high-wage job opportunities. Opportunity Grants can be used toward completionof credentials, certificates, and apprenticeship programs in occupations where local and regionalemployer demand exceeds the supply of qualified applicants. Eligible programs must be linked toeducational and career pathways, and colleges must demonstrate that there are jobs available forprogram graduates that pay at least $13 per hour. In addition, schools must demonstrate thatlocal businesses, labor groups, and other community stakeholders are active in supporting thecreation or expansion of the program. For adults who cannot take advantage of the OpportunityGrant program because their basic skills are not at a sufficient level to immediately enter apostsecondary program, Washington State’s nationally acclaimed IBEST initiative allows adults tolearn basic skills while earning credentials for high-demand jobs with opportunities foreducational and career advancement.

The Benefits and Returns of a 21st-Century Skill GuaranteeThe potential benefits and returns of a 21st-century skill guarantee are widespread. Guaranteeingup to two years of postsecondary education and training will benefit the individuals who get thattraining, strengthen the productivity of the state economy, and could increase public resources.

Simply put, more education means greater participation in the workforce and higher lifetimeearnings. A recent examination of Maryland’s adult learners found that about 85 percent ofadults with an associate’s degree and 83 percent of adults with some college (but not a degree)participated in the workforce, compared to only 79 percent of adults with a high school educationand 62 percent of adults with less than a high school education.23 In addition to higher work participation rates, Maryland adults with some college averaged about$301,000 more in lifetime earnings than those with only a high school education,and adults with an associate’s degree averaged about $503,000 more in lifetime earnings.

These findings are consistent with those of Holzer and Lerman who found that nationally, themedian worker with an associate’s degree earned about 33 percent more than a worker with onlya high school degree, while workers with a bachelor’s degree earned about 62 percent more thanworkers with only a high school degree.24 These studies indicate not just that postsecondaryeducation provides a significant earnings advantage for workers, but also that on a per-year basis, benefits for workers receiving a two-year degree are comparable to those receiving a four-year degree.

More education also is associated with lower unemployment. Nationally, in December 2009unemployment for workers with less than a high school diploma was nearly 15.7 percent. Forthose with a high school diploma it was 10.6 percent, while for those who’d completed highschool plus some college – our middle-skill level – the unemployment rate was 8.5 percent.25

A guarantee of access to at least two years of postsecondary education for all workers wouldincrease productivity and earnings in Maryland. According to the Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD), each year of postsecondary education leads to anincreased per capita output of between 4 and 7 percent.26 Increasing the average total schoolingof a city’s population by two years increases the wages of all workers by about 6 percent,

23

regardless of individual educational attainment.27 And one additional year of schooling leads toan 8.5 percent increase in productivity in the manufacturing sector, and more than a 12 percentproductivity increase in other industrial sectors.28

A 21st-century skill guarantee for all Maryland workers would also increase public resources.Increasing the number of U.S. adults with middle-skill credentials by 10 percent would increasefederal tax revenue by $14 billion,29 and would save the federal government up to $2,500 perperson in reduced reliance on public assistance programs.30

24

Middle-skill workers are at the heart of the nation’s economic recovery, andthey will serve as the backbone of Maryland’s economy for years to come. They

will repair roads and bridges, care for the sick and elderly, transport goods, keepcommunities safe, and provide a host of other services Marylanders rely on daily.

In the short term, Maryland’s workforce must be ready to meet demand as Recovery Act fundsbegin creating middle-skill jobs. In the long run, Maryland must provide training and educationneeded to meet demand for the greatest portion of jobs in the state’s economy.

Maryland needs greater investments and focus on middle-skill education and training as wellas the basic skills education needed to achieve that training so that all residents have theopportunity to improve their skills and advance in their careers. Without those education andtraining opportunities, businesses and communities will suffer from a lack of qualified workers.Economic recovery will be slowed.

As Maryland continues to receive Recovery Act funding, there is a unique opportunity to take a closer look at the state’s economy and the importance of middle-skill jobs in it. What willMaryland do to ensure its education and training policies reflect the reality of the job market?

While Maryland has taken some important steps to address the shortage of middle-skillworkers, it is time for a bold, visionary step that will ensure all Maryland workerscan be a part of economic recovery and secure Maryland’s place in a 21st-centuryeconomy. At various times in America’s history, visionary leaders have adjusted the basic level ofeducation guaranteed to all Americans as a way to adjust to a changing economy and remaincompetitive. Universal high school and the GI Bill are examples of when America did this withgreat success in the past.

It’s time to do it again by guaranteeing that all Maryland residents have access to at least twoyears of postsecondary education or training. This should be the guiding vision for Maryland’seconomic and education policy. It would provide the state’s workers and businesses with the skillsthey need not only to rebuild and recover, but to compete in an increasingly competitive globalmarketplace.

How will Maryland do this? Leaders from the business, labor, and training communities mustroll up their sleeves and make it happen, supported by strong political leadership andcommitment. It is time for Maryland policymakers, educators, unions and businesses to unitewith others around the country around this new vision, to champion the policies and strategiesnecessary to ensure that Maryland recovers and thrives, and that its workforce is at the forefrontof the innovation economy.

CONCLUSION

25

Table 1 and Figure 1: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.31 Occupational categories (high, middle, low skill)based on the methodology used in Holzer and Lerman, 2007.32 The Maryland Governor’s Workforce InvestmentBoard has released slightly different figures for current middle skill jobs. Skills2Compete identified the skilllevels needed for major groups of occupations. GWIB used Occupational Projections and Training Data (OPTD) toidentify the skill levels needed for each specification occupation. Despite these different approaches, the datatell the same story: middle-skill jobs are the largest portion of jobs in the state.

Table 2 and Figure 2: Based on occupational projections for 2006-2016 by the Maryland Department of Labor,Licensing and Regulation.33 Occupational categories (high, middle, low skill) based on the methodology used inHolzer and Lerman, 2007.

Figure 3: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).34 Occupations divided into skill levels (high, middle, low)based on educational attainment requirements as defined by BLS. Because BLS does not classify occupations asgreen jobs or not, this section of the report assumes that the skills distribution in green jobs is the same as theskills distribution that occurs across all related occupations.

Table 3: Based on occupational projections for 2006-16 by the Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing, andRegulation, using recategorization of occupations according to BLS Education and Training Categories.35 Jobsrequiring at least moderate-term on-the-job training, related work experience, a post-secondary vocationalaward, or an associate’s degree were classified as middle-skill.

Figure 4: Based on occupational estimates for 2007 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and December 2007Current Population Survey (CPS) data on educational attainment by state.36 Occupational categories (high,middle, low skill) based on the methodology used in Holzer and Lerman, 2007. Only workers in the labor marketand at least 25 years of age (i.e., past traditional school age) are counted.

Figures 5, 6 and 7, and Table 4: Based on Current Population Survey (CPS) data for December 1990, and 200537

along with population projection data38 by RAND California Statistics, and labor force estimates39 by theMaryland State Data Center.

1989, 2005 and 2020 Educational Attainment: Past years’ educational attainment data reported only forworkers in labor force and aged 25 and over, using CPS data. 2020 projections calculated using staticeducational attainment model presented in Hanak and Baldasarre, 2005.40 In that model, educationalattainment figures are calculated for the state’s current workers (workers aged 25-49 in 2005) for each of 12different race, ethnicity, gender and age cohorts. Educational attainment for these cohorts is assumed to bestatic over the ensuing 15 years (2020), and educational attainment for new cohorts of workers (i.e., youngerthan 25 years in 2005) is assumed to mirror that of similar age-race-gender groups today. As such, changingeducational attainment throughout the state’s population is calculated based on projected demographicchanges in the composition of the working population, and does not take into account possible changes inbehavior, immigration, et. al.

Creating Skill Categories Using Educational Attainment Data: Skill attainment categories (high, middle, low) for1990 created using a reclassification of CPS-reported “grades completed” that parallels the educationalattainment categories later used by CPS, and reclassified in this table for current and future years using thesame method as in Figure 4, p. 14.

Figure 8: Data from long-term population projections (2000 to 2030) by State, age, race, ethnicity, and gendercohorts, as calculated by RAND California Statistics.41 Each cohort was either classified as a “current working ageadult” or “not a current working age adult” based solely on age. Current working age was defined as ages 20 to 64.

APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY

26

ENDNOTES

1 Maryland Governor’s Workforce Investment Board. Maryland’s Workforce Indicators: 2008. Available athttp://www.gwib.state.md.us/lib/pdf/mdwfindicators.pdf. (Annapolis, 2008).

2 Atkinson Robert D. and Scott Andes. The 2008 State New Economy Index. The Information Technologyand Innovation Foundation and the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. (Washington, DC, 2008).

3 Hightower, Amy. Quality Counts 2010: Portrait of a Population. Education Week. Available athttp://www.edweek.org/media/ew/qc/2010/QualityCounts2010_PressRelease.pdf. January 14, 2010.

4 U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 American Community Survey Ranking Tables, Available at:http://factfinder.census.gov.

5 Holzer, Harry and Robert Lerman. America’s Forgotten Middle-Skill Jobs: Education and TrainingRequirements in the Next Decade and Beyond, commissioned by Skills2Compete / The WorkforceAlliance. (Washington, DC, 2007).

6 Zandi, Mark. The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Available athttp://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/Economic_Stimulus_House_Plan_012109.pdf.(West Chester, PA, 2009).

7 National Association of Manufacturers. 2005 Skills Gap Report – A Survey of the AmericanManufacturing Workforce. (Washington, DC, 2005).

8 U.S. Department of Labor. Notice of Availability of Funds and Solicitation for Grant Applications (SGA) forthe Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Opportunities in the Workforce SystemInitiative. Catalog of Federal Assistance Number: 17.268. (Washington, DC, 2009).

9 The Jacob France Institute. An Evaluation of the Earnings and Workforce Development Impacts of theBioTechnical Institute of Maryland, Inc. (Baltimore, 2007)

10 Holzer and Lerman, 2007.11 Maryland Governor’s Workforce Investment Board. Analysis of May 2008 Occupational Employment

Statistics from the U.S. Department of Labor. Data available at: http://www.bls.gov/oes/12 White, Sarah and Jason Walsh. Greener Pathways: Jobs and Workforce Development in the Clean Energy

Economy. Center on Wisconsin Strategy, The Workforce Alliance and The Apollo Alliance. (Madison, WI,2008).

13 Maryland Governor’s Workforce Investment Board. Analysis of GDP by State data from the U.S.Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data available at:http://bea.gov/regional/index.htm#gsp

14 National Association of Manufacturers. (Washington D.C., 2008).15 Advance findings from Governor’s Workforce Investment Board Healthcare Industry Initiative Non-Nursing

Professions Workforce Subcommittee Report. (Annapolis, 2008.)16 Holzer and Lerman, 2007.17 National Commission on Adult Literacy. Reach Higher, America: Overcoming Crisis in the U.S. Workforce.

Available at http://www.nationalcommissiononadultliteracy.org/ReachHigherAmerica/ReachHigher.pdf. (New York, 2008).

18 National Center for Education Statistics. National Assessment of Adult Literacy. Available athttp://nces.ed.gov/naal/estimates/StateEstimates.aspx. (Washington, DC, 2003).

19 Maryland Governor’s Workforce Investment Board. Maryland’s Workforce Indicators: 2008.20 Council for Adult and Experiential Learning. Learning in Focus. Available at

http://cael.org/adultlearninginfocus.htm. (Chicago, 2008).21 Maryland Higher Education Commission. 2009 Data Book. Available at

http://www.mhec.state.md.us/publications/research/AnnualPublications/2009DataBook.pdf.(Annapolis, 2009). Averages of percentages presented for students taking core and non-core high school curriculum.

27

22 The Urban Institute for the Annie E. Casey Foundation. The Integration of Immigrants and Their Familiesin Maryland. Available at http://www.urban.org/UploadedPDF/411751_immigrant_integration.pdf.(Baltimore, 2008).

23 The Council for Adult and Experiential Learning and The National Center for Higher EducationManagement Systems. Maryland Profile of Adult Learners – 2008. Available atwww.cael.org/adultlearninginfocus.htm. (Chicago, 2008).

24 Holzer and Lerman, 2007.25 Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Current Population Survey. Available at http://www.bls.gov/cps.

Seasonally adjusted data for workers 25 years and older.26 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The Well-Being of Nations: The Role of

Human and Social Capital. (Paris 2001).27 Rauch, James. Productivity Gains from Geographic Concentration of Human Capital: Evidence from the

Cities. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 3905. (San Diego, 1991).28 Black, Sandra E. and Lisa M. Lynch. Human Capital Investments and Productivity. The American Economic

Review, Vol. 86 No. 2, (Pittsburgh, 1996).29 Khatiwada , Ishwar, Joseph McLaughlin and Andrew Sum. The Fiscal Economic Consequences of Dropping

Out of High School: Estimates of the Tax Payments and Transfers Received by Massachusetts Adults inSelected Educational Subgroups. Center for Labor Market Studies, Northeastern University, and USCensus Bureau. 2003 (Boston, 2007). Educational attainment 2000, calculation by The WorkforceAlliance.

30 Vernez, Georges, Richard Krop and C. Peter Rydell. Closing the Education Gap: Benefits and Costs. Centerfor Research on Immigration Policy, RAND Education. (Santa Monica, CA, 1999).

31 Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2007 State Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates. Available athttp://www.bls.gov/oes/2007/may/oessrcst.htm. (Washington, 2007).

32 Holzer and Lerman, 2007, p. 9.33 Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation Maryland Occupational Projections 2006-2016.

Available at http://www.dllr.state.md.us/LMI/iandoproj. (Baltimore 2008).34 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2602. (Washington,

2006)35 Maryland Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation, 2008. 36 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey. (Washington, DC, 2007).37 U.S. Census Bureau, 2007.38 RAND California Statistics, Population Projections for U.S. States. Available at

http://ca.rand.org/stats/popdemo/popprojUS.html. (Santa Monica, CA, 2009).39 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Available at http://www.bls.gov/LAU.

(Washington, DC, 2008).40 Ellen Hanak and Mark Baldassare, California 2025: Taking on the Future. Public Policy Institute of

California. (San Francisco, 2005), pp. 44-45.41 RAND California Statistics, 2009.