Masood AhmadLead Water Resources Specialist

ADFD/WB Project Preparation and Appraisal Workshop Abu Dhabi, April 2010

Project Preparation, and Appraisal in the Water Sector – Pakistan Punjab Barrages Improvement Project

Pakistan Punjab Barrages Improvement Project

Project to rehabilitate Jinnah Barrage on the Indus River (see Map for Location)

The Barrage was constructed in 1946

Whole of the Indus river flow passes through the barrage

Water is diverted to one canal namely the Thal Canal

Thal Canal Coves are area of about 2.1 million acres - in Thal desert

Direct beneficiaries of Barrage/Thal canal are four districts Mianwali, Khushab, Bhakkar, Layyah and Muzafargharh districts

Total popluation about 5 million people dependent of water supplies for from the canal

About 700,000 farm families derive their livelihood directly and indirectly from irrigation

The canal is the source of water for all uses, irrigation, drinking, domestic, municipal and industrial water use.

Bararge is 3,781 Feet long, 56 gated bays 60 feet each

Two undersluices on left and right side with seven bays each, Navigation lock, Fish ladders etc.

A 95 MW power plant is being installed on the barrage would be completed in 2 years2

Jinnah Barrage

Problems of the Barrage and Project Design

Barrage is unsafe and partial or full failure is likely

It is being undermined as the river bed on the downstream side has been lowered

The gates malfunction

Emergency repairs have been done – but the structure needs major revamping

The project would construct a weir done stream to check erosion of the river bed close to the barrage

All gates would be repaired, and motorized and improved with monitoring system

The project would deal with social and environmental issues

The project is to be implemented on an operational system, water supplies cannot be interrupted

Interruption of water supply for to the project area and downstream would be economic and social crises for the country

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Proposed Project

Objectives: Strengthen and modernize Jinnah Bararage to enable un-interrupted supply of water to2.1 m a; and build capacity of IPD in improved water resources and irrigation management

5 million people in 5 districts, about 600,000 farm families direct beneficiaries of Jinnah Rehabilitation

Component A: Rehabilitation and Modernization of Jinnah Barrage (US$112 million)

A1, A2 Civil and mechanical works ($94 m) A3 , Social Development and Environmental Management plans

(US$9 million)

• Water Supply Schemes, Seed distribution, social development initiatives

A4 Construction Supervision and Project Management

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Proposed Project

Component B: Improvement and modernization of the Irrigation and Water Management Systems (US$15 million)

B1.1 Improvement and Water Management , simulation models, decision support and water accounting systems etc. (US$5 million)

B1.2 Modernization of equipment for water management (US$4 million)

B2. Future Project Preparation (US$6 million)

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Proposed Project-- Benefits

Component C: M&E of progress, impact and supervision of SADP and EMP Implementation (US$2.5 million)

Component D: Support for project implementation, technical assistance and training (US$6.5 million)

IDC and Upfront Fee US$19 million

Benefits are large, ERR 21%, continued supply for 2.1 million acres, 5 districts, 5 million people and for 96 MW power plant, road, utility crossing etc.

Improved water resources management in the province

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Risks, Safeguard Issues Environment, Social

Project is rated “Substantial” risk Sheer size of construction on operational system Possible Procurement issues and country environment Mainly due to possible Interruption to water supplies Accidents, breaching of coffer dam etc. Reputational risks

Upgraded to Category “A”

Environment: Positive impact in the long runs, issues during construction which can be mitigated through the proposed EMP

• Monitoring of Indus blind Dolphins by wildlife institute (best estimate is 2 between Jinnah and Chashma barrge)

Social: Positive in the long run, Issue: interruption to supplies during construction -- SDAP to address issues Water supply schemes, seed distr. Part, health unit, girls school

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Construction Planning and Operation of the System During Construction

Extensive planning for construction

System of coffer dams and timing to ensure supplies downstream ----250,000 cusecs for meeting downstream demands –fisheries and aquatic life

Sequencing to ensure continued supplies to Thal canal

Extreme care to supply water for Mohajir Branch of Thal canal which has saline groundwater and people depend on canal water for drinking water.

Provision of feeder canal with 1,500 cusecs

Contingency plans in case of unforeseen situation, SDAP and EMP

Water supply schemes -rehab and construction Distribution of seed Hospitals, schools, etc. in the project area

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Construction Planning

1 Year 2 Year

U/S

RIG

HT

GUI

DE

BAN

K

D/S RIGHT GUIDE BANK

EXCLUDERSILT

THAL

CAN

AL

UNDER RIGHT LEFT

SLUICES

123456711121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556 10 9 8

RIGHT DIVDE WALL

LEFT DIVDE WALL

C BARRAGEL

381

For Subsidary Weir at 600 Feet

Proposed Coffer Dam Arrangement

Legend:1st Year Coffer dam Arrangement

2nd Year Coffer dam Arrangement

Righ

t D

ivid

e W

all

D

C

AA

B

B

E

Coffer dam to be constructed in left under sluices every year.

FLO

WNov 30 Complete coffer dam

Oct 15 start construction of coffer dam

Carry out construction December to May

January during canal closure

Jan-Feb complete coffer dam

March-May construction

March –May construction

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Construction Planning

Communication Strategy

To keep people informed of the construction schedule and possible implications of operation of the system – allow to make them plans

To get feedback from people and use best possible schedule to minimize negative affects

Use of media, existing organizational structure of IPD

Special unit under PMO to for communication during construction

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Economic AnalysisEstimates of Financial and Economic costs

Estimates of cost (financial cost) -- September 2009 prices Construction costs

• estimates of quantities, use of unit rates, physical contingencies, taxes, price escalation, and interest during construction

Supervision costs

Monitoring and evaluation costs

Cost of social action plan, cost of environmental management etc,

Estimates of economic cost Taxes and duties are taken out

Price contingencies are taken out

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Economic AnalysisEstimates of Benefits

Quantified benefits and

Unquantified benefits

Quantified benefits

Major benefits are from irrigated agriculture

The deterioration of Jinnah Barrage would lead to reduced water and untimely supplies to the Thal canal covering some 2.1 million acres of irrigated area

The current cropping intensity of 103 percent would gradually decrease to 87% over a period of ten years -- without Project Scenario

With the project the area would get full supplies and the cropping intensity would increase to 113 percent

Crop production in without and with project scenarios is valued in economic prices of each commodity and by products.

Crop budgets are prepared for each crop grown in the area

A farm level model is developed for a typical cropping pattern and input outputs for a 5 ha farm

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Unquantified benefits Avoided erosion of land and safety of infrastructure on it The power plant on the Barrage of 96 Mw would have reduced

energy production Catastrophic scenario If the barrage partially or fully collapses it would take about 5

years to reconstruct The reconstruction cost would be about US$500 million if all

bays do not collapse Estimated crop loss would be about US$87 million per year This would result in economic and social crisis for the country ERR is estimated about 21.7% NPV is US$80 million in economic terms at 12% discount rate

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Economic AnalysisEstimates of Benefits

Sensitivity Analysis

•

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Economic Analysis

Description ERR

Response %

a. Base Case 21.7 b. Costs increase by 20% 19.3 c. Benefits Decrease by 20% 18.8 d. Combination of both (b&c) 16.7

Financial Analysis

Description FRR

Response %

a. Base Case 17.7 b. Costs increase by 20% 15.6 c. Benefits Decrease by 20% 15.2 d. Combination of both (b&c) 13.4

a.