Master of Science Defense - Uni Kassel · 2017-08-16 · Master of Science Defense 20th of June 2017 Prepared by Eng. Hesham El- Badry Supervised by Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil Dr. Willfried

Pragmatic Energy Efficiency Approach to Accommodate COP21 Targets For Reducing GHG

Emission in Egypt

Master of Science Defense20th of June 2017

Prepared by

Eng. Hesham El- Badry

Supervised by

Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil

Dr. Willfried Wienholt

Seite 2

1. Objective

2. Reporting GHG emission reduction for COP 21

3. Fuel production and consumption profile

4. Egypt GHG emissions Profile

5. Scope

6. Electric energy scenarios and electric energy grid emissions

7. Possible reductions in Egypt From newly installed power plants

8. Emissions from sector

9. Calculation methodology and data gathering

10. SWOT Analysis

11. Conclusion

12. Recommendation for further studies

Content

Pragmatic Energy Efficiency approach to accommodate COP21 targets for reducing GHG emission in Egypt | REMENA

Seite 3Pragmatic Energy Efficiency approach to accommodate COP21 targets for reducing GHG emission in Egypt | REMENA

2. Setting the baseline emissions for highlighted sectors

1. Define the requirement of Egypt for the COP 21 agreement

3. Finding possible solution to reduce energy use through EE

4. Estimate the reduction that will occur by using EE technologies

1. Objective


Policy

Definition

Identify

Identification of all potential GHG effects and include them in a map of

casual chain

Identification of sources and sinks

Estimate

Verify

Definition of the action plan or policy to be assessed

Estimations baseline scenario for all affected sources

Ex-ante and Ex-post assessment

Identify KPIs

Verify results

Identification of all potential GHG effects and include them in a map of

casual chainReport

2. Reporting GHG emission Reduction For COP 21






Purpose for EE

3. Fuel production and consumption profile


Waste 8%

Industrial

process 9%

Agriculture 10 %

Energy 73%

Electric energy

41%

Transportation

24%

Manufacturing

17%

Fuel combustionFugitive

emissions

11%

7%

4. Egypt GHG emissions profile

Seite 9

Demand Side Supply Side

1. Residential sector

2. Industrial sector

3. Governmental sector

4. Public lighting

1. Power Plants in Egypt

2. Renewable Energy


5. Scope


165

202

224

288

129

173170

208

156144

183

100

114107 101

86

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Total emissions from Electric Energy grid

Business as usualLeast Cost Future to 2035 low share of NuclearLeast Cost Future to 2035 hight share of NuclearReal Renewables Future

GHG MTons

6. Electric energy scenarios and electric energy grid emissions


614

593604

574

616

553

481

497524

498

408

438462

417

298

217200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Electric Energy grid specific emission factor

Business as usual

Least Cost Future to 2035 low share of Nuclear

Least Cost Future to 2035 hight share of Nuclear

Real Renewables Future

gm GHG /kWh

6. Electric Energy scenarios and Electric Energy grid emissions

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The newly 14.8 GW capacity CC installed power plants have an efficiency of 60 %

The current efficiency for power pants in Egypt is 40 %


2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

GHG emission reduction from CC power plants

GHG MTons

Base line GHG emissions


Seite 13




2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

GHG emission reduction from CC power plants

GHG MTons

Reduced GHG emissions


Seite 14




100

165

202

224

288

100 116

149163

230

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Business as usual Forecast (Baseline)

Reduced emissions from new Combined Cycle power plants


Total emissions from Electric Energy grid


Cement

Steel

AluminumPetrochemicals

Copper

Fertilizers

59%26%

8%

5%

8.1 Emission profile in Industry

8. Emissions per sector


59%

8%

Possible energy saving = (BAT international- average specific energy) x Production

Thermal efficiency improvement from the average consumption is 37%

Electrical efficiency improvement from the average consumption is 94%

8.1 Emission profile in Industry



1. Reduction from building codes and less HVAC

2. Reduction from wall and rood insulation

3. Reduction from the shifting to LED bulbs

8.2 Emission profile in Residential sector



8.2 Emission profile in Residential sector


GHG in Mtons


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

GHG in Mtons

Forecasted GHG Emissions from public lighting

Emissions after implementing recommended techolgies

8.3 Emission profile in Public Light sector


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Calculation were done according to the IPCC standards and also using the IPCC Inventory

Software.

For power plants, energy efficiency is calculated based on kWh electric generated per kWh

heat consumed


CO2 Emissions from Fuel type = Quantity of consumed Fuel x CV x Coefficient factor


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• Calculation methodology of the green house gas emissions are used based

on the IPCC “standards and software”

• The data are collected from the national report for energy forecast in Egypt

and from the CAPMAS and UNIDO

• Energy Efficiency for each implemented technology was given and reduction

in energy consumption from the demand side are calculated based on these

technology.

• Forecast from the demand side is used based on gathering data from

previous years and using linear regression




1. Natural gas fields discovered Egypt

2. Efficiency projects and initiatives

3. Mega project of CC

4. Campaigns on Energy Efficiency

Strengths10. SWOT Analysis


1. Egypt strategy not clear or announced for power plants

2. Financing tools limitation to implement

3. Feed in Tariff Challenge

4. Strategies of building codes

5. The gap between the Baseline and the BAT (Best Available Technology)

6. Finical income of Egyptian is low

10. SWOT AnalysisWeaknesses


1. Capacity factor for RE

2. knowledge transfer and supporting local manufacturing process of wind

turbine blades

3. Project and policies that have been implemented for EE not yet reported

4. Previous studies by MOERE have been conducted with several scenarios

of production electrical energy in a more efficient way

5. OPEX in Egypt is low and gives advantage for EE manufacturing

10. SWOT AnalysisOpportunities


3. Non technical losses of electricity

2. Effect of devaluation of local currency

1. Political situation in Egypt is getting better, with still some challenges kept to

attract investors such as the investment law

10. SWOT AnalysisThreats

Seite 26

10. Conclusion


1. Progress in raising awareness and providing training for ministries involved in

Energy to complete the NAMA report

2. GHG emissions Baseline scenarios have been calculated

3. Technology for reducing energy consumption and electrical energy

generation are identified with their reduction in fuel oil and GHG emissions

In 2035

GHG emissions in MTons

11. Conclusion

Seite 27

1. Economical feasibility for EE technologies

2. Penetration factor for available EE technologies

3. More training to be provided to all Egyptian ministries involved in GHG

emissions to formulate a NAMA report

4. Develop relation between GHG emissions and GDP


12. Recommendation for further studies




Thank you

Documents

Master of Science Defense - Uni Kassel · 2017-08-16 · Master of Science Defense 20th of June 2017 Prepared by Eng. Hesham El- Badry Supervised by Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil Dr. Willfried