Futures In Brand Development

How Are Futures Represented In Luxury Brand Development?

Masters Thesis Compiled For The Completion Of The Degree Master Of Arts In Future Studies

Institution: Freie Universitt Berlin

Primary Assessor: Dr. Christian Neuhaus Institutional Seat: Freie Universitt Berlin

Secondary Assessor: Wolfgang Mller-Pietralla Institutional Seat: Volkswagen AG

Masters Thesis Compiled By: Maximilian Nicolai Karl Drner

Master Of Arts Degree - Future Studies

Matriculation ID Nr.: 4681000

Word Count: 17.888

Weinbergsweg 2 Email: max.doe@icloud.com D - 10119 Berlin Tel: +49 (0) 176 679 28373

Table Of ContentsIntroduction 1

Research Question 3

Relevance of the investigation 4

Aims of the investigation 5

Methodology 6

Step 1 - Subject Determination 6 Step 2 - Methodological Framework 6 Step 3 - Literary Selection & Investigation 6 Step 4 - Final Literary Selection 6 Step 5 - Literary Analysis 8 Step 7 - Research Insights 8 Step 7 - Comparative Analysis 8 Step 8 - Reflexive Summary 9

Structure of the Thesis 10

Section 1 - Background 10 Section 2 - Analytical Framework 10 Section 3 - Literary Research 10 Section 4 - Research Insights 11 Section 5 - Comparative Analysis 11 Section 6 - Reflexive Summary 11

Section 1 - Background 12

The Scientific Context 12 Luxury Brand Development 14 Futures Management 16 Selected Works 17

Section 2 - Analytical Framework 18

Context 18 Semiotic Marker #1 - Planning 20 Semiotic Marker #2 - Time Frame 21 Semiotic Marker # 3 - Aim 21 Semiotic Marker # 4 - Control 22 Methodological Application Of Semiotic Markers 22

Section 3 - Literary Research 23

Futures Representations In Luxury Brand Development 23 The Forms Of Luxury Brand Development Content 23 Luxury Brand Positioning 24 The Luxury Brand Dream 27 Luxury Brand Life Cycles 30 Luxury Brand Growth 35 Luxury Brand Line Extension & Stretching 38 Global Luxury Brand Expansion 41 Luxury Brand Innovation 42 Long-Term Luxury Brand Strategy 43

Section 4 - Research Insights 46

Methodology 46 Diversity 46 Similarity 47 Moving Forward 47

Section 5 - Comparative Analysis 48

Luxury Brand Development & Futures Management 48 Planning 48 Time Frames 49 Aims 49 Perspective 50 Methods 50 Possible Future Synergies 50

Section 7 - Reflexive Summary 52

Glossary Of Tables & Charts

- Figure 1.0 - Examples Of Brand Positioning On The Semiotic Map 25

- Figure 1.1 - Brand Identity Project: Operational Implications 26

- Figure 2.0 - The Brand Dream: Four Typical Situations 28

- Figure 2.1 - Economic Model of Luxury 29

- Figure 3.0 - Luxury Brand Building Process 30

- Figure 3.1 - The Brand Life Cycle 32

- Figure 3.2 - Hermes Sales (In Million Euros) 33

- Figure 3.3 - Ferragamo Sales (In Million Euros) 33

- Figure 3.4 - Kodak Sales (In Million Euros) 34

- Figure 4.0 - Projected NPV 36

- Figure 4.1 - Luxury Market Growth 37

- Figure 5.0 - Different Definitions Of Brand & Line Extension By Author 39

- Figure 5.1 - Two Types Of Luxury Brand Expansion 40

- Figure 6.0 - Luxury Brands In Perspective 44

IntroductionThis research thesis has been compiled as part of the syllabus of course work for the successful completion of the master of arts degree in future studies at the Freie Universitt Berlin, in Germany. The thesis was submitted on February 27th, 2015 to the assessors Dr. Christian Neuhaus & Wolfgang Mller-Pietralla for review. The research in this thesis was conducted by Maximilian Drner, and represents work only conducted by himself without the assistance of other or any form of collaborative effort.

This thesis is a literary investigation which delves into the thematic of futures and their prevalence in literature adhering to the specific disciplinary field of luxury brand management, focusing on brand development literature in this field of study. An analytical semiotic framework designed for this task of literary analysis is utilised for the research task at hand.

Luxury brand management is widely seen as a sub-field of brand management and business management, which in turn are categorical fields usually associated with the academic and economic practices of business administration. For the purpose of this thesis, management shall be defined as The intentional steering and shaping of organisational occurrences. The function of management pertains in this to the sustenance of the prerequisites for the continuation of organisational communication and operation within circumstances and environments critical to the organisations continued operation. (Translated & Paraphrased from Neuhaus, 2009)

While this definition of management does not include a developmental perspective, it does serve to highlight the task of controlled and formative engagement in any task relating to theory or practice that deals with the active management administration of any organisation, particularly a business. And as luxury brand development is inherently a management task pertaining to luxury business development as a whole, that requires exactly this form of steering and shaping, coupled to a certain extent to future or futures-oriented perspectives, this working definition of management serves as a dynamic point of entry into the subject matter researched here.

The second definition essential to the understanding of the subject under scrutiny in this thesis is that of a brand. Whilst definitions abound, for the purpose of this study a brand shall be defined from a semiotics perspective which denotes that brands are systems of meaning (Chevalier & Mazzanolo 2012) . i

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. ISBN: i978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 177

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While this may seem like a broad perspective, as many different sets of semiotic signifiers may be seen as systems of meaning, this definition lends itself as a basis for reiteration. A brand, as a system of meaning, constructed from a multitude of real or perceived visual, textual, historical and synthetic signifiers, is a system organisationally created as a commercially viable manner of creating a meaning beyond products or services themselves. A brand is thus the system of meaning constructed by a particular commercial actor or organisation around a particular product, product group, service or service offerings.

Luxury brand development is then the practice focused upon the inception, analysis & effective strategic management of a life cycle of any given brand. This life cycle refers to the construction of any brand and its meaningful presence from inception to consistent prevalence or decline in the minds of individual persons and the economic market at large. As Chevalier & Mazzanolo denote, A brands history comprises phases of strong expansion alternating with phases of relative stagnation, and perhaps rapid decline. (Chevalier & Mazzanolo, 2012). This insight does not render much of the ii

complexity involved in managing, or the actual nature of a brand, it does however indicate the temporally bound quality of a brand. It indicates that brand management, in particular the management & development of a luxury brand as a meaningful construct of signifiers to be read and understood by individual persons is a long-term endeavour. Thus it will deal, in some form or another, with questions of planning, timeframes, aims and controls in order flourish and develop.

This proposition is the basis for the tenor this study takes, and its subject of analysis. If luxury brand development is concerned with a temporally dispersed subject matter & tasking, which represents future, futures or futures-oriented themes, the research thesis at hand will try to isolate and analyse these forms of literary discourses and methods. As no plausible set of analytical tools for identification of the subject matter of futures & futures-oriented themes could be found amongst future studies methodological frameworks and available literature, this study also sets out to provision future enquirers into the subject matter of representations of futures & futures-oriented themes across any field with the basis for an analytical semiotic framework to employ. The main pretext of this investigation was, however, a perceived lack of formalised discourse surrounding futures & futures-oriented discourse in the field of luxury brand development, particularly in the luxury fashion brand development area, denoted by the author of this study whilst actively working in aforesaid field over several years.

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. ISBN: ii978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 139

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Thus, the semiotic framework employed in this study has been constructed as way of bridging the methodological gap for such literary analysis as well as discerning the status quo of futures & futures-oriented themes and discourse in the area of luxury brand development.

Research QuestionThe question posed for this thesis is a simple enquiry into particular, futures-oriented aspects of luxury brand development, focusing upon literary representations of the subject matter:

How are futures represented in luxury brand development?

As defined, the question deals with the representation or representations of the future or futures in the particular field of organisational developmental management literature pertaining to the steering and shaping of a brand as a constructed system of meanings, bought into being and communicated through signifiers that aim to project said constructed meanings to potential consumers, and individual persons at large, within what is defined as the luxury segment in the economic & academic sphere of luxury brand management, with particular focus upon the subject of luxury brand development.

This question is also the catalyst for the construction of an adequate analytical framework, based on semiotic analytics, and a consequent in-depth literary inquiry of literature pertaining to the field of luxury brand management, isolating only information that relates in some manner to the particular area of luxury brand development. With an excess of forty-five volumes initially collected, the seven most recent & relevant to luxury brand management have been selected for use in this thesis as a point of reference for the following discourse dealing with the literary inquiry based upon the research question.

These findings are then corroborated and reflected upon to determine the status quo of futures representation in luxury brand development at large. These are then compared with the prevalent treatment of futures-oriented themes in the field of futures management, to gain an understanding of possible advances and short-fallings of futures in luxury brand development.

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Relevance of the investigationThe relevance of the investigation undertaken by the author adheres to the question and desire in business administration & management studies and practices to actively grapple with the seeming variability and indeterminable nature of the future or futures, depending upon the relevant observers perspective, in relation to brand development.

The study is also driven by the desire for a more adequate framework of analysis through which the representation of futures-oriented themes in a variety of disciplinary fields can be analysed, catalogued and classified.

Whilst this study does not propose to solve the dilemma purported by those that have to deal with the seemingly variable and indeterminable circumstances of futures throughout their career or academic treatment of luxury brand management & development practices, it does endeavour to be of relevance regarding the analytical determination of the current status quo of futures representations, in this particular field or any other to which this or an adapted analytical semiotic framework for literary analysis may be applied.

Through this investigative determination of the status quo, and a critical analysis of the subject matter of the representation of futures in luxury brand management, and the consequent comparative analysis of these findings with current insights rendered by the academic and practiced field of futures management, this investigation hopes to be relevant by shedding some light on possible areas of methodological competence, deficit and oversight. Beyond this, this study will also explore relevant avenues of possible methodological adaptation or synergy from futures management to the field of luxury brand development. This understanding could serve future enquirers as a basis for further research into the possible development of futures or futures-oriented theories & tools for the field of luxury brand development, based upon existent knowledge harboured by the discipline of futures management, and future studies at large.

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Aims of the investigationThe initial aim of this thesis is to render a relevant framework for the analysis, exploration and categorisation of futures-oriented practices in any given field, through semiotic categorical lenses of analysis. These categorical lenses aim to identify semiotic signifiers pertaining to futures & futures-oriented themes, and to be so universal in theory as to then be adapted and applied to a variety of fields to discern subject matter relating to futures, even outside luxury brand development. The goal is to lay the groundwork for the consequent construction of a universally adaptable and applicable set of semiotic tools for analysis, which may be applied across a variety of contexts.

The main aim of this thesis is the consequent testing of these semiotic tools in the context of luxury brand development literature. This is done in order to determine, classify and analyse the current futures-oriented themes, methodologies & practices proposed in and applied by scholars and professionals in luxury brand development literature and practice. The insights thus gained may serve as a basis for more in-depth studies concerning possible avenues of development of the field itself.

The final aim of this study is to render explorative insights through comparative analysis of futures-oriented practices in luxury brand management when contrasted with some of those practices employed by the field of futures management, highlighting possible entry points for adaptation or synergy of methodology, perspective and goals. These insights will in turn allow for a better contextualisation of the status quo of luxury brand developments treatment of future, futures & futures-oriented themes in relation to a field specifically focused upon such themes. This tasks aim is to shed some light upon possible avenues of future development in a field that is also intrinsically linked to temporally dispersed parameters, events and influxes.

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Methodology

Step 1 - Subject Determination

The primary step to approaching this investigation was the determination of the research matter, outlining of the relevant research question How are futures represented in luxury brand development? and the setting out of the approach, namely a literary investigation into the subject matter selected.

Step 2 - Methodological Framework

The methodology of this study selected as a structured literary investigation into futures & futures-oriented themes, tools and practices, which, due to the lack of methodological research methods that could be found to date for such an investigation, began with the construction of a semiotic analytical framework as the tool kit for said literary analysis.

Step 3 - Literary Selection & Investigation

Once this analytical semiotic concept had been researched, structured and formalised, and before the actual analytical task of applying these newly constructed analytical tools to relevant literature could be started, a broad range of literature of possible relevance to the field of luxury brand development was undertaken.

Step 4 - Final Literary Selection

Throughout this task, it became apparent that a plethora of the literature available to date was only peripherally concerned with the subject matter of luxury brand management, let alone the specific subject of luxury brand development, rendering a too broad subject matter to be treated in a study of this scope. Thus the most relevant literary findings were reduced down to seven seminal volumes treating subject matter in the field. These literary volumes are:

- Luxury Brand Management - A World Of Privilege (second edition) by Chevalier & Mazzalovo (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) iii

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. ISBN: iii978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.

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- Luxury World - The Past, Present And Future Of Luxury Brands by Tungate (Kogan Page, 2009) iv

- Luxury Strategy In Action by Hoffman, Coste-Maniere et. al (Palgrave Macmillan, 2012) v

- The Luxury Strategy - Break The Rules Of Marketing To Build Luxury Brands (second edition) by Kapferer & Bastien (Kogan Page, 2012) vi

- Luxury Talent Management - Leading And Managing A Luxury Brand by Gutsatz & Gilles (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013) vii

- Global Luxury Trends - Innovative Strategies For Emerging Markets by Hoffman & viiiCoste-Maniere et. al (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013)

- The Luxury Alchemist by Pucci - Sisti Maisonrouge (Assouline, 2013) ix

As can be discerned from this list, all of the selected volumes are of recent publication, and are all published by professionals and academics active in the field of luxury brand management to this day.

Whilst this selection does reduce insights into relevant representation down to only the most current and specific volumes dealing with the subject matter of futures & futures-oriented literary discourse which touches upon luxury brand development in particular, it is this nominally current status quo that is the subject of inquiry for this study. A broader approach seems irreverent of the depth and complexity of the research question posed,

Tungate (2009), Luxury World: The past, present and future of luxury brands. ISBN: iv978 0 7494 5263 6, Kogan Page Limited 2009.

Hoffman & Coste-Maniere et. al (2012), Luxury Strategy In Action. ISBN: 978 0 2303 v5454 8, Palgrave Macmillan 2012.

Kapferer & Bastien (2012), The Luxury Strategy - Break The Rules Of Marketing To viBuild Luxury Brands (2nd Ed.). ISBN: 978 0 7494 6491 2 Kogan Page Limited 2012.

Gutsatz & Gilles (2013), Luxury Talent Management - Leading And Managing A Luxury viiBrand. ISBN: 978 1 1372 7055 5, Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.

Hoffman & Coste-Maniere et. al (2013), Global Luxury Trends - Innovative Strategies viiiFor Emerging Markets. ISBN: 978 1 1372 8738 0, Palgrave Macmillan 2013.

Pucci-Sisti Maisonrouge (2013), The Luxury Alchemist. ISBN: 978 1 6142 8150 4 ix Assouline 2013.

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and qualitatively relevant results are sought over the reference to quantitative scope in order to test the analytic semiotic framework employed.

Step 5 - Literary Analysis

Through the application of the formalised analytical semiotic framework constructed throughout the primary steps of this study, insights as to the nature of the representation of futures & futures-oriented themes prevalent throughout the selected literature were denoted, catalogued and classified. These findings have then been presented in a categorical summary referring to each area of relevance and prevalence identified.

Step 7 - Research Insights

This corroborative step of the research study serves to bring together the gleaned insights that have been brought to light through the prior literary analysis and consequent comparisons of the information collected from aforesaid works pertaining to the subject of luxury brand development. In order to summarise the findings discerned for luxury brand development for the consequent comparative analysis to futures management, this step portrays a qualitative renditions of the information collected, and the general tenor of the results of the research.

Step 7 - Comparative Analysis

Once these research insights had been discerned, they were then subjected to a comparative analysis. This analysis contrasted findings from the literary works subjected to scrutiny with insights concerning futures & futures-oriented practices from the field futures management. It must be stressed here that the comparative analysis of insights contrasted with insights from the field of futures management are qualitative, narrative and in no way exhaustive, and solely touch upon insights which have been formalised for methodological and operational use in the field of futures management to date as referents. This is due to the pragmatic and practical orientation of the field of luxury brand development, any more complex comparison of theoretical insights concerning futures which may or may not allow for the instrumentalization of such insights for the purposes of forging further tools for the engagement with futures & futures-oriented practices is here deemed an undertaking too broad and complex for a study of the scope of a thesis such as this, but perhaps this research may serve as a base for future investigation.

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Step 8 - Reflexive Summary

This final step in the research is a formalised review of the efficacy of the application and achieved results that were able to be attained through the use of the conceptualised semiotic analytical framework of literary analysis of the texts studied to determine the prevalence of futures & futures-oriented themes in this field. The summary also serves to reflexively reiterate the insights, results and research findings that were attained through the research undertaken.

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Structure of the ThesisThis research thesis is structured along the lines of the above investigative methodology. It is divided into seven consecutive sections, each building upon the insights of the prior. This format aims to enable the reader to easily follow each research step employed.

Section 1 - Background

To allow for a better understanding of the subject matter at hand, a short contextual outline has been provided. This outlines the contextual, not historical, relevance of both the subject of luxury brand development and the field of futures management to this study. The section also provides background information on the selection of literary works analysed from the field of luxury brand management, focused on luxury brand development.

Section 2 - Analytical Framework

The second section of the research thesis outlines the analytical semiotic approach taken to the matter of the literary investigation which is part of the research of this paper. The section outlines the basis for the selection of the particular analytical approach selected and adapted for the task of discerning instances of futures & futures-oriented themes in luxury brand development represented in literature. This structural explanation describes the format of inquiry, as well as the specific referents that were used as analytical tools for the study.

Section 3 - Literary Research

The third section of the research thesis then applies the aforesaid semiotic framework to the outlined texts subjected to study for this research thesis, utilising the constructed conceptual frame. This section is structured into subject areas that were discerned as a unifying presence throughout the works studied.

The section, due to the information gathered, is divided into the subject areas of luxury brand positioning, the luxury brand dream, luxury brand growth, life cycles, global expansion, line & brand expansion, innovation and long-term strategy.

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Section 4 - Research Insights

The fourth section of the research thesis is dedicated to the narrative corroboration of the results found, and the general tenor of the insights that could be grasped from the analysis undertaken. It also touches upon the use of the semiotic analytical framework, and the insights garnered in relation to this use.

Section 5 - Comparative Analysis

The fifth section of the research thesis delves into the comparative analysis of the research insights with futures management perspectives on futures & futures-oriented themes. Concerned with comparative insights from the volumes in relation to futures management material, the section is short, and largely narrative, serving as an explorative analysis differentiates between the two fields, and opens the doors to contemplating possible avenues of synergy and methodological adaptation to possibly be explored between the two disciplines.

The focus in this section is on points of differentiation and points of intersection, both inside the subject matter, and across the two disciplines. The section has been formalised into areas of comparison regarding planning, time frames, aims, controls and perspectives. This allows for a narrative differentiation of luxury brand development from futures management.

Section 6 - Reflexive Summary

The seventh, and final, section of this research thesis is a reflexive summary of the research undertaken, as well as the most relevant insights gathered through the engagement in this research. The section is an overview of the use of the analytical framework, as well as the results attained through the frameworks employment in relation to the subject of the representation of futures in luxury brand development undertaken in this study, and the comparative analysis consequently undertaken in relation to futures management, exploring future avenues of discourse and methodological adaptation between the two disciplines

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Section 1 - Background

The Scientific Context

As far as research by academics and professional in the field of future studies or futures management into the subject matter of futures in other segments is concerned, there is a wide range of research that has been conducted.

Whilst, in most cases, this research has taken a narrative, explorative or even normative approach to discerning particular aspects of futures and futures-oriented themes that prevail in the particular fields of study, such as the future of the economy, of education, of mobility (Popp et. al, 2012) , such complex endeavours are constantly x

scientifically unfounded, as Popp denotes. Scientific inquiry requires the prerequisite of imitability and results that may be synthesised identically in order to prove their validity. He rightly raises the concern that ..serious future studies proponents should solely reserve their efforts for that which may be know about futures, and should focus their efforts as proponents of future-oriented researchers of the present (paraphrased from Popp et. al, 2012) . For the most part, future studies engagement with other fields xi

of study has been concerned with the studied fields perceived possible, probable, plausible and desirable futures, perspective formalised in future studies. These are not exclusive, and sometimes include surprising futures or other perceived options. xii

These engagements, and their relevant insights gained are the basis of the perspective this study takes, which is also concerned with an aforesaid form of futures-oriented research of the present, not in a classical future studies sense, but in the sense that the subject matter pertains to future, futures or futures-orientation. The present being explored is the status quo of futures in seminal literature of recent years pertaining to the field of luxury brand development, itself not a scientific field, but one that may be studied by reproducible and imitable standards, with methods that are coherent and may lend the same results by whomever initiated researcher they may be applied by.

Translated from R. Popp (Hrsg.) (2012), Zukunft und Wissenschaft. ISBN: 978 3 642 x28954 5, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012. Pg. 20.

Translated from R. Popp (Hrsg.) (2012), Zukunft und Wissenschaft, ISBN: 978 3 642 xi28954 5, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012. Pg. 21.

Translated from Micic (2013) Die 5 Zukunftsbrillen: So werden sie zum Vordenker (3. xiiEd.). ISBN: 978 3 8693 6555 8. GABAL Verlag GmbH 2013. Pg 42 - 46

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This study is not, however, primarily concerned with the probable, possible, plausible or desirable future or futures of the field of luxury brand development itself. The study at hand focuses more specifically on the status quo of the subject of futures & futures-oriented practice in said field, thus looking at another disciplines representations of the subject matter of futures within its own literature. Thus, this study, while laying no claim to scientific absolutes, may lay reasonable claim to scientific foundations in terms of reproducible methods and results, comprehensibility and a subject matter that may be fully explored at any time of study. xiii

In order to gain any specific insights regarding the representations of futures in luxury brand development a theoretical base must be established for these representations. The most effective formalised format for this research study may be adopted from futures management. As stated by Neuhaus, every engagement with futures is intrinsically linked to the development or reworking of futures representations of future or futures. Futures representations (we will opt for the plural for the remainder of this study, due to the individuals ability to conceive multiple instances of possible outcomes of futures to come) are meaningful representations that are created, exist and represent in the consciousness and memory, as well as in the communication, organisation and other social systems, events or developments that lay in the future. Futures representations are thus one of the forms in which social systems and individuals construct their own meaningful perceptions of time, consisting of each of their current pasts, presents and futures, constantly adapted. Thus, futures representations represent the futures in the present. (Neuhaus, 2010) This conception of futures representations xiv

complimentarily builds upon the earlier insights rendered by Popp concerning the nature of futures and their temporal, knowable and morphological place in time and perception.

Allusions are made as to possible explorative and normative future developments of the place the subject of futures & futures-oriented themes may take in the field of luxury brand development, but this thesis lays no claim as to scientific accuracy or relevance of these explorative & normative allusions, as this would jeopardise the research which is inherent herein, concerning the current state of affairs, not those of possible, probable, plausible or desirable futures in the field of luxury brand development.

Translated from R. Popp (Hrsg.) (2012), Zukunft und Wissenschaft. ISBN: 978 3 642 xiii28954 5, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012. Pg. 21.

Paraphrased & Translated from Neuhaus (2010) Zukunftsbilder Als Medium Von xivZukunft, based upon Neuhaus (2007) Zukunft im Management - Orientierungen fr das Management von Ungewissheit in strategischen Prozessen. ISBN: 978 3 5407 8564 4, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009. Pg. 2

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This study looks to supply and employ tools to determine the state of present futures representations in the literature pertaining to, not an answer to the question of, futures that are to come in the field of luxury brand development.

Luxury Brand Development

While luxury brand development is a field of relatively recent inception in a formalised academic context, brand management has existed as a sub-discipline of management studies at an institutional level and a prevalent practice over several decades. Luxury brand development emerged as the first artisanal leather brands and fashion houses, as well as automotive manufacturers, perfumers, watchmakers, jewellers, vintners, and in recent years hoteliers and service providers have developed their commercial offerings and business size, as well as global market presence to be formally categorised in the field of a luxury brand. This development became imminent with the inception of the first commercial conglomerates, namely the Italian PPR (now PPR Gucci), the french LVMH and the swiss Richemont groups, assimilating multiple luxury brands at the end of the 20th century. Through this shift in business structure and practice in the luxury industry, alternate forms of management practice, study and literature were developed. One of the first volumes dedicated to luxury brand management particularly was Alleres Luxe: Strategie, Marketing. , a vastly dated piece of work by contemporary xv

management standards, yet still a foundational literary contribution to the field itself, but not the subject of study here.

Whilst the definition of a luxury brand is already a complicated undertaking, the definition of luxury has proven to be even more elusive and a point of vehement discourse. We are aware of a variety of possible definitions, and, as Chevalier & Mazzalovo denote in their seminal work Luxury Brand Management (second edition) the luxury of one is not necessarily that of another. (Chevalier & Mazzalovo, 2012) . xvi

Many or even most are aware of what is being alluded to when speaking or writing of a luxury brand, definitions however subjectively differ. These differences are often noted as depending upon variables such as the defining subjects social standing, wealth, education, field of occupation and consumer preferences, amongst a plethora of

Alleres (1990), Luxe: Strategie, Maketing. ISBN: 978 2 7178 1824 6, Economica xv1990.

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. xviISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 1.

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possible other influential social, cultural and economic circumstances that may effect an individuals perception of luxury. xvii

This sector, dominated by global fashion entities such as Chanel, Louis Vuitton & Hermes, as well as automotive brands such as Bentley, Rolls Royce and some might even argue segments of Mercedes-Benz or BMW, amongst a variety of other exclusive brands from different industries such as Moet in Champagne or Hennessy in Cognac, or Wally in luxury yachts, is as diverse as it is hard to define. Specifically, this industries brands deal in a products that are, by a large segment of the population, deemed as more exclusive than other brands, either due to their pricing, availability, product placement or historical heritage.

Luxury brand development, is then, the theoretical discourse and active management practice associated with brands of this tenor. This theoretical knowledge and the operational skills this knowledge entails as a pragmatically oriented discipline is focused upon the management of developing, marketing, sustaining, growing, proliferating, popularising and amalgamating such brands, amongst other functions.

As we are here dealing with futures representations in academic works dedicated to the specific field of luxury brand management entitled as luxury brand development, not an analysis of brands pertaining to the industry, an overly specific definition of categorised industry players is erroneous and of little significance at this point. It may be said we are dealing with a relatively recently formalised academic field concerned with the expertise and knowledge of business management in a rarified but often ambiguous luxury industry. The courses usually are taught through an MBA degree format at diverse universities and business schools including the ESSEC Business School , the IFA xviii

Paris , the Instituto Marangoni and others across the globe, whos lectors literary xix xx

offerings are amongst those scrutinised in through semiotic analysis here.

Paraphrased from Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A xviiworld of Privilege. ISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg 3-6

Identified via: http://www.essec.edu/programs/mba-programs/mba-in-international-xviiiluxury-brand-management.html

Identified via: http://www.ifaparis.com/courses/postgraduate/mba-luxury-brand-xixmanagement

Identified via: http://www.istitutomarangoni.com/en/fashion-courses/postgraduate/xxmaster-programme/fashion-luxury-brand-management

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These courses and the corresponding knowledge is documented by a variety of proponents who write on the subject and its perspectives, tools, goals and practices periodically. The authors studied are all, in some capacity, part of this academic institutionalisation of luxury brand development, and their works constitute the most relevant material available to this investigation.

Futures Management

Another recently formalised academic field, with a similarly dispersed collegial presence and diverse literary and methodological proponents, future studies, specifically futures management as a related and overlapping discipline, also eludes simple definition. The general terminology Future Studies invokes and air of mystique, from which one must distance oneself in order to grasp the subject matter more firmly, but even here opinions, perspective and approaches defer broadly.

At the basis of futures management lies the idea of the future or futures (plural), and the management practices concerned with or coinciding with these idealised states, so much can be said without rousing conflict. But this seemingly simple point of entry also yields the basic nature of the discursive conflict that divides researchers and academics, as well as adherents in the areas of business, economics, politics, social services and technological development.

The basic nature of the future or futures, and their place in any area of expertise may be the subject of future studies, but the manifestations said study and its advocates take are as varied and variable as perhaps futures representations themselves. The subject of defining futures management has been an area of academic discourse in itself.

For the purpose of this research thesis, futures management is define as a subject concerned with an area of management, as defined earlier, of futures & future-oriented themes and the futures representations they entail, as well as the consequent formalised administrative management of the results. As Fink states, futures management is about the close connection of strategically relevant futures and strategies implementable in futures - or more simply put, the intersection of futures and strategy. xxi

Fink & Siebe (2012) Handbuch Zukunftsmanagement - Einfhrung. ISBN: 978 3 5933 xxi9500 0. Campus Verlag GmbH 2011. Pg. 10

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As this is a field where futures-oriented themes and strategic practices relating to business management have been relatively formalised under the sub-category futures management over recent years, this particular branch of future studies will serve as a point of reference for research results pertaining to the literary analysis of luxury brand development, and the futures representations and themes thus isolated.

Selected Works

The selected works which are to be the subject of this investigation have been chosen for their prominence in the academic pursuit of luxury brand development and for the recognised academic standing of their authors. They each treat a different aspect of luxury brand development, so as to avoid repetition, but all revolve around the coherent core them regarding luxury brands and their contexts, practices, aims, perspectives and other knowledge accumulated in the successful administration & management of luxury brands in general.

As the field under scrutiny, much like futures management, may seldom lay claim to a solid scientific base, the works are largely subjective, highly normative, and at times disparate. They represent knowledge and know-how not necessarily garnered from rigorous research practices in an academic context, but from market research studies, business culture analysis and hands-on experience in the workforce of luxury brands. They have been selected for their perceived validity in luxury brand management.

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Section 2 - Analytical Framework

Context

In order to undertake the planned form of literary analysis, a framework must be adopted to allow the researcher to differentiate certain areas of the studied works for further analysis from the general content.

One of the ways this has been done across other academic fields is through the pragmatic operationalisation of theoretic pretexts that are then adapted as a sort of semiotic lens for discerning aspects of social arrangements, global economic shifts, the psyche or any other specific area of study. These theoretical frames often rely upon guiding theoretical paradigms. xxii

These paradigms may be a theory such as structural functionalism, used to highlight relative functional structural distributions of power and economic means of subjects within a given societal or cultural context. The semiotically structured meanings that this lens is constructed of allows the observer to take on a meaningful perspective, looking only at aspects of an objective state of affairs through the filter of the semiotic subjective precepts of structural functionalism and its presuppositions as a theoretical framework. xxiii

Taking this basic idea, this study employs a far less complex semiotic framework based on semiotic markers. These are structures into four categories for the purposes of analysing literary works for futures representations. These four lenses are based on four semiotic pretexts inherent in most forms of futures representations, semiotics being the study of meaning-making also employed by Chevalier & Mazzalovo in their work Luxury Brand Management, subjected to study here, to describe what luxury brands are, and how they create meaning. xxiv

Paraphrased & Adapted from Surdulescu (2002) Form, Structure & Structurality in xxiiCritical Theory - The Semiotic Analysis of the Literary Text. ISBN: 973 5 7549 75, Editura Universitatii din Bucuresti 2002. Pg. 45 - 55

Paraphrased & Adapted from Seilers work Semiology // Semiotics written for the xxiiiCommunications study 441 course of the University of Calgary, identified via http://people.ucalgary.ca/~rseiler/semiolog.htm

Paraphrased from Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A xxivworld of Privilege. ISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. 2012. Pg 164

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The semiotic pretexts are inherently linked to the basic idea that futures representations are semiotically linked to one of the following lenses through which they may be identified and observed in detail. As futures representations are meaningful, loaded signifiers of a signified forward-thinking approach, method, statement or other sign relating presents to come, the semiotic filters chosen are specific as well as retaining a broad scope of information which they may produce. They work in relation to text as well as visual semiotic signifiers, allowing for the inclusion of graphs and tables that are utilised by the authors to represent futures-oriented content and futures representations.

Most definitions of complex themes require a discursive treatment themselves, but in order to move forward a definition prevalent in future studies and consequently futures management has been chosen to allow for a definition of a future or a plurality of futures already. Here, the reiteration of an inherent problem should be denoted once again to keep this in mind. As Grunwald (Popp & Schll et. al 2009), points out:

Future does not refer to one or the possible future present. Future is, due to its inherent link to linguistic semiotics and language with which we converse about future, always that which in the language is presently expected as a possible state of affairs which will or may as such occur at another point in time. Future as a reflexive term about possibles is always inherently something of the present, and thus a present term, which changes with the nature of the present in which it used. Thus, we can speak of possible futures, about alternate future possibilities, the way in which we imagine future presents to be, and about the pretexts which we refer to as a basis for expecting certain futures, but never about future presents as such. Only presently possible futures are thus accessible to us. (Grunwald, 2009) xxv

This is of import as it highlights the fact that all information we may gather through semiotics from the literature under analysis is, if in a less formalised manner, dealing with perspectives that are limited by the field of luxury brand developments current theoretical and methodological limitations, as well as the limitated perspectives of the authors at the time of writing with regards to thinkable and conceivable futures, and thus do not include any futures representations which were beyond their scope, or may be prevalent but have not been formalised.

Translated from Grunwald (2012) Wovon ist die Zukunftsforschung eine xxvWissenschaft? in Popp & Schll (et. al.), Zukunftsforschung und Zukunftsgestaltung. ISBN: 978 3 5407 8564 4, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009. Pg. 27

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Also, the reiteration of the semiotic complexity of the term future or futures allows for a more comprehendible point of entry into the selection of the semiotic markers used as research tools in this study. They are terms that, while complex, are rudimentary compared to the subject matter they aim to identify. Terms that are inherently linked to the precept of future or futures, wrongly or rightly so, have been determined. Thus, four terms that are inherently semiotically linked, at the basis of their capacity to generate meaning, to the idea of a future or multiple futures, and pre-suppose some form of practice associated with this future-oriented relationship have been selected. The following four terms, after careful analysis, have been selected for their scope as well as specificity, which make them possible semiotic concepts that may serve as markers for literary analysis.

Semiotic Marker #1 - Planning

The first semiotic marker to be selected is the semiotic concept of planning. All forms of planning may be identified as referring to futures & futures-oriented themes, as they refer to the act or process of making a plan to achieve or do something, based on the premise to plan. This in turn, has a variety of semiotic meanings, but the most relevant aspects for the purpose of this study are method for achieving an end, an often customary method of doing something and/or a detailed formulation of a program of action. (Merriam Webster Online Dictionary, 2015) xxvi

What all of these definitions entail is that a plan refers to a structured, formalised conception to dictate the approach to a certain action aimed at achieving a prescribed end. Thus, all plans are inherently semiotically linked to the concept of the future or multiple possible futures, and entail some form of futures representation, usually in the form of a goal or aim to be achieved. This futures representation is often not temporally linked to a specific time, it merely refers to a desired state of affairs to be attained at some point in the future, when the plan or planning is applied.

This marker allows the researcher to identify all forms of methodological avenues and tools that may be presented in a text, and categorise these according to the format the plan takes, in relation to specific methods employed, timeframes adopted, goals set and possible reflexive controls utilised.

Planning (Verb) as defined by Merriam-Webster online edition (2015), retrieved from xxvihttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/planning

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Semiotic Marker #2 - Time Frame

The second semiotic marker to be employed within the scope of this research thesis is the semiotic concept of a time frame. A time frame refers to any length time allocated to an undertaking, a period of time that is used or planned for a particular action or project . This means a time frame is an allocated or utilised period of time that is xxvii

employed when engaging in any activity or project, planned or unplanned.

This marker allows us to identify futures representations that may be omitted by looking for modes of planning due to these representations being presented outside a formalised sphere of methodological planning. This may, for example, occur if a futures representation is linked to a statement about temporally defined developmental processes, but does not instruct the reader on the steps or actions to be taken to achieve the same results. Time frame as a marker also allows us to view futures-oriented content that is connected to the rendition of historical contextual data, recorded research information that maps data set progressions, and general statements about time frames for different things linked to luxury brands in general.

Semiotic Marker # 3 - Aim

The third semiotic marker selected is the semiotic concept of an aim. An aim is a target outcome, a future present, a result that has been set out by current standards, and is thus a futures representation in itself. The two most relevant meanings of aim for the purpose of this study are a goal or purpose and/or a clearly directed intent or purpose. (Merriam Webster Online Dictionary, 2015) xxviii

These two definitions, the first less restricted than the second in that is does not define the clarity with which the path to the outcome shall be directed, both refer to a semiotic meaning that is clearly linked to a future state of affairs, and thus futures representation. Whilst an element of planning or methodology may be missing from a prescriptive statement, and no time frame may be reiterated, the statement of an aim does intrinsically reference a futures representation, making this a further useful semiotic marker.

Time frame (Noun) as defined by Merriam-Webster online edition (2015), retrieved xxviifrom http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/time%20frame

Aim (Noun) as defined by Merriam-Webster online edition (2015), retrieved from xxviiihttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/aim

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Semiotic Marker # 4 - Control

The final semiotic marker employed is a less direct one, that of a control. A control, for the semiotic purpose employed here, refers to a device or mechanism used to regulate or guide the operation of a machine, apparatus, or system. (Merriam Webster Online xxix

Dictionary, 2015). This meaning may, on the surface, have little to do with futures representations, but a control implies a future variable, and an element of regulation of guidance. Thus, the semiotic marker control also implies a preferential or sought after state of affairs, and this state of affairs must be formalised as a futures representation in order to exist. A control references a normative futures representation to be attained. It will usually refer to a conceived plan, possibly a time frame and/or aim. For example, if a semiotic instance of a control takes the form of a formalised method for checking outcomes, it is inherently already a form of planning, with an aim that is linked to a prior instance of planning, and thus entails futures representations in variable forms. The reason control is still included as a semiotic marker is for the purposes of more accurate categorisation and classification of planning instances throughout the texts analysed, allowing for a primary differentiation between instances of planning that pursue aims in and of themselves, and planning which is aimed at the analysis of outcomes of prior planning.

Methodological Application Of Semiotic Markers

In order to be effectively employed, the literary texts under study must be subjected to detailed scrutiny, sifting through each volume to identify semiotic instances which relate to one or more of the four categorical semiotic markers. These identified words, sentences, passages, methods, visual representations or other forms of relevant signifiers are then referenced to other texts, and if a significance to the field of luxury brand management is accord to them as a futures-oriented theme which directly relates to luxury brand development they are noted and integrated into consideration. Not all instances of futures-oriented themes were recorded for the purpose of this thesis, as the sheer volume would exceed the parameters of the study as an explorative engagement, now a scientific work. Only instances deemed by the thesis author as relevant were exemplified to illustrate how futures are represented in luxury brand development. These recorded instances then make up a significant section of futures in a section of the literature pertaining to the specific field of study, in this instance the field of luxury brand development.

Control (Noun) as defined by Merriam-Webster online edition (2015), retrieved from xxixhttp://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/controls

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Section 3 - Literary Research

Futures Representations In Luxury Brand Development

The following categorical insights about areas of futures representations in luxury brand development literature were attained using the outlined semiotic framework for analysis for the selection of possible areas of interest. The descriptions of each form of futures representation is qualitatively expounded, and lays no claim as to quantifiability related to prevalence or popularity of such perspectives throughout the discipline itself. They are qualitatively, subjectively selected in accordance with the semiotic framework used to isolate them. The categories selected were those that could be identified to be prevalent across a number of volumes, and thus lend themselves to comparative analysis.

The Forms Of Luxury Brand Development Content

The content pertaining to luxury brand development throughout the literature studied takes a variety of forms. From formalised instructions referring to approaches that different phases and situations in luxury brand development require, to merely referencing the need for directions, goals and targets, the literature studied is as diverse as it is complex. The manifestations of plans and approaches to the represented futures that accord to these instances are vast and varied, and futures-oriented thinking pervades most of these works, even if this is often the case solely in the form of normatively uttered forms of prescribed or recommended engagement to an aspect of a luxury brands development. At the less formalised end of the spectrum are general statements according to a need to engage in activities that deal with aspects of strategic planning, financial planing, marketing and other prevalent themes. For example:

One of the most fundamental qualities for any luxury brand leader is strategic thinking. to keep the dream alive you must evolve. You cant stay stagnant and just enjoy the current business model. (Pucci-Sisti Maisonrouge, 2013) xxx

This example implies a fundamental understanding of the need for reflexivity, explorative strategic engagement and evolutionary thinking, all entailing directions toward futures representations of positive growth and development, but the quoted text does not propose a valid way to move toward this strategic evolutionary ideal, or what management practices may bring such results about.

Pucci-Sisti Maisonrouge (2013), The Luxury Alchemist. ISBN: 978 1 6142 8150 4 xxx Assouline 2013. Pg. 44

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On the other end of the spectrum, somewhat more formalised and insightful models and methodologies are presented throughout some of these texts, which deal with a variety of aspects pertaining to business planning. These have been broken down to several categorical classifications. These include luxury brand positioning, the luxury brand dream, luxury brand growth, life cycles, global expansion, line & brand expansion, innovation and long-term strategy.

These areas dont necessarily include plans or time frames, but their content relates, in accordance with the four categories selected, to the theme of futures representation in luxury brand development. All of this points to a rudimentary understanding of different forms of possible, probable, plausible and desirable futures and their representations in the context of this subject matter. The level of sophistication is rendered throughout the following sections, exhibiting general insights, as well as selected examples to furnish each section.

Luxury Brand Positioning

A High level of normative perspective is presented throughout luxury brand development literature, concerning prescribed or preferred developmental aims of a luxury brand. As luxury brand development, a field that is intrinsically linked to the developments inherent in economic markets, and sometimes seen as responsible for many of the trend developments in these markets by fulfilling a role as taste-makers , the texts studied xxxi

advocate a certain normative necessity when dealing with positioning a luxury brand. The futures represented in relation to brand positioning as a normative aim herein are based upon the idea of normative stances to be taken when engaging, planning and goal-setting throughout any luxury brands development. These stances are even portrayed as ontological prerequisites for continued functional management of a luxury brand in some passages. For example, the following excerpt represents a particularly normative stance in relationship to a luxury brands positioning in the market:

Paraphrased from Kapferer & Bastien (2012), The Luxury Strategy - Break The Rules xxxiOf Marketing To Build Luxury Brands (2nd Ed.). ISBN: 978 0 7494 6491 2 Kogan Page Limited 2012. Pg. 157

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For a luxury brand to fulfil its ontological function (recreating the social distance, the gap) it is necessary for it to be known beyond its realistic clientele: it must radiate as a symbol of superior taste, in a literal and figurative sense. (Kapferer & Bastien, 2012) xxxii

Similar normative statements even presuppose or acknowledge the power of luxury brands to shape the future presents they will be a part of, at least partially, in a explorative normative manner. These representations of possible, plausible or desirable (not necessarily probable) futures refer to consciously developing the brand, trend and consumer taste environment through active engagement. For example:

The luxury brand must also resonate today, be a key emitter of future trends and tomorrows tastes. (Kapferer & Bastien, 2012) xxxiii

Whilst this represents one extreme end of the spectrum relating to a brands positioning without apparent methodological foundation, various other instances that are aimed at actively discerning the possible and desirable future positioning of a brand also exist in others of the texts studied.

FIGURE 1.0 - EXAMPLES OF BRAND POSITIONING ON THE SEMIOTIC MAP

This semiotic map shows a luxury brands positioning in the market in relationship to several brand identity parameters, complimentary and opposing. xxxiv

Kapferer & Bastien (2012), The Luxury Strategy - Break The Rules Of Marketing To xxxiiBuild Luxury Brands (2nd Ed.). ISBN: 978 0 7494 6491 2 Kogan Page Limited 2012. Pg. 143

Kapferer & Bastien (2012), The Luxury Strategy - Break The Rules Of Marketing To xxxiiiBuild Luxury Brands (2nd Ed.). ISBN: 978 0 7494 6491 2 Kogan Page Limited 2012. Pg. 157

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. xxxivISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 175

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The diagram in Figure 1.0 depicts several prominent brands and their positioning mapped along an X & Y axis. While this may initially seem irrelevant to the representation of futures in this field, models such as these can be employed as a tool for planned and targeted positioning of a brand in the market, allowing for an engagement with desirable and plausible futures in contrast to possible or probable ones. This can be achieved through the reflexive capabilities of a model such as the one above, allowing for conscious engagement with the question of possible positions, and thus viable futures representations.

Here is another diagram, portraying of how brand positioning may effect the operational and strategic activities of a luxury brand throughout its development:

FIGURE 1.1 - BRAND IDENTITY PROJECT: OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS

This flow chart shows the effects that the selection of luxury brand positioning, in relation to brand identity, aesthetics and ethics can have on the

pragmatic operational & strategic development of a luxury brand. xxxv

This flow chart shows that the selective positioning of a luxury brand during its development has a number of effects on the brands operation down the line, and thus on possible, probable, plausible and desirable futures that may come about. However useful these forms of planning may be, they remain relatively informal, providing only a very limited frame of reference in the relationship to choices made, and possible effective outcomes. There are few controls suggested, but the methodology is rudimentary when related to the complexities of effective influxes upon the development of a brand. No material was found as to trend analytics, context analysis or any other form of formalised engagement with the brands environment which could have guided choices effecting represented futures and possible guidance on a path to effective brand positioning.

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. xxxvISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 183

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The Luxury Brand Dream

The dream is a prevalent theme across the volumes studied. It refers to a reified futures representation of desirable, normative and meaningful futures to be attained through the purchase of luxury goods by the consumer. It is also referenced as a construct that may represent these desirable futures, but which leaves them wholly unattainable and thus implausible, improbable or impossible futures representations, unable to be manifested by most consumers who encounter this dream. The concept of the dream refers to an alternate form of the idea of brand perception or brand image, but the language in which it is presented already outlines some of the mystique that is preferably projected in luxury brand development as a part of a brand image. For example:

the luxury field is about dreams, and in order to create dreams, the story needs to be told flawlessly with the brand guarantee that every single client has the same experience and shares the same dream xxxvi

This rendition of the dream implies an understanding of the power of a widely proliferated futures representation, namely of one in which the brand has positive associations, and is all-present, with an intrinsic positive connotation attached. It does not, however, show an in-depth understanding as to the highly subjective nature of perception, and the construction of futures representations that individuals engage in, shaped, as was earlier expounded, by their own subjective environment and circumstances. The proposed homogeneity of this perception of a brand in the eyes of observers ignores the subjectivity with which individuals approach perception of anything, even a brands identity, image and message. This shortsightedness is of course not the case throughout the works studied, and merely adheres to some perspectives.

Futures representations, contained in the dream, are proliferated through advertising, public relations, the press and all other communications channels available to luxury brands in order to propagate their signified meanings, encoding possible or even plausible futures to be popularised, even idolised through their proliferation via mass media engagement.

Pucci-Sisti Maisonrouge (2013), The Luxury Alchemist. ISBN: 978 1 6142 8150 4 xxxvi Assouline 2013. Pg. 94

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Some works even formalise a methodological approach to the effective creation of the brand dream in order to effectively develop a luxury brand. While this is akin to general brand image development across other fields, it takes a slightly different form here. This practice is engaged with varying degrees of complexity, from the overly simplified and incomprehensible instance to the highly sophisticated and useful. The following two examples are indicative of the varying degrees of complexity that exist in the texts.

For example, Kapferer & Bastien conceived of this visual guide to Managing The Luxury Dream Equilibrium seen below:

FIGURE 2.0 - THE BRAND DREAM: FOUR TYPICAL SITUATIONS

The model above aims to portray the relationship and dispersion between brand perception and active consumer behaviour of a luxury brand. xxxvii

The diagram shown in Figure 2.0 is meant to convey to the reader that a strong luxury brand is one where the brand image transcends the realm of its active customers, and is present in the consciousness of the general populous at large. Clearly this model is not meant for operationalisation, and deciphering it may allow an adherent to the field of luxury brand management to discern that the brand dreams communicative reach should be as broad as possible to allow for the highest possible rate of dissemination of meanings, and consequently futures-oriented ideas represented by the brand.

Kapferer & Bastien (2012), The Luxury Strategy - Break The Rules Of Marketing To xxxviiBuild Luxury Brands (2nd Ed.). ISBN: 978 0 7494 6491 2 Kogan Page Limited 2012. Pg. 155

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FIGURE 2.1 - ECONOMIC MODEL OF LUXURY

This model shows the economic relationship between the target customer of a developed luxury brand and the luxury brand itself. xxxviii

The diagram in Figure 2.1 depicts a model of a luxury brands relationship to its target customer using the idea of the dream also, but renders a higher complexity, displaying where the brand identity, or the dream is positioned in relation to the place of the luxury company staff, and the customer. This model, and the section related to it, suggests that the brand as a meaning system is a shared grounds between the customer and the employees of the brand. This shared aspect of a reality, even though observed from multiple very different subjective angles in each actors case, still enables the luxury brand to share their futures representations in a meaningful way with the customer through advertising, in-store communication and events, for example, as well as all other mediums of communication available to the luxury brand.

This means that the customer, when purchasing, or even merely coming into contact with the brand, may have their perception of possible, probable, plausible and desirable futures altered by the meanings projected by the brand. The customer, in turn, in the case of purchase, provides the luxury brand with the financial means to actively also alter its own set of present futures. In the age of customer relationship management, online communication and social media, the customer now even has the ability to directly, ever so minutely, also effect the luxury brands present futures. The above model manages to show the shared nature of influence, space of communication and even avenues for this two-way engagement.

Gutsatz & Gilles (2013), Luxury Talent Management - Leading And Managing A xxxviiiLuxury Brand. ISBN: 978 1 1372 7055 5, Palgrave Macmillan, 2013. Pg. 31

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The brand image and identity, or dream, is a central theme throughout the texts studied, and elucidated in varying forms and complexities by the different authors. The utility of the idea for the purpose of meaningful engagement with themes of futures-oriented planning or practices is complex, but just the kind of task that futures management methodologies may be a plausible solution for.

Luxury Brand Life Cycles

The luxury brand life cycle refers to the perceived phases of development that different proponents of the discipline deem a luxury brand to go through, from inception onward through a variety of different developmental stages. The varying perspectives also render different developmental referents, and consequently different ideas of futures representations prevalent and discernible in the descriptive texts themselves, sometimes linear and singular, at other times explorative, plural and exhibiting the basic characteristics of unformalised scenarios that lend themselves to comparative analysis as a basis for decision making. These models will be looked at here, in order to discern their basic relationship to futures representations.

The following two luxury brand life cycles were selected as examples, due to their contrasting degree of definition, each portraying a different range of developmental stages, as well as treatments of temporal horizons, when compared. This reflects the lack of uniformity presently prevalent in the field of luxury brand development where the subject of brand life cycles is concerned, but this lack of uniformity can be constructive due to the inherent exploration of working models, and be put down to the variable instances of how brands perform in the marketplace. Thus their observers may render different examples for reference when constructing models such as the ones shown here, utilising the knowledge they bring from other fields to luxury brand management. The first model, depicted in Figure 3.0, shows a linear, processual, understanding of luxury brand development.

FIGURE 3.0 - LUXURY BRAND BUILDING PROCESS

The flow diagram shown above represents the separate developmental stages which a luxury brand is perceived to go through. xxxix

Hoffman & Coste-Maniere et. al (2012), Luxury Strategy In Action. ISBN: 978 0 2303 xxxix5454 8, Palgrave Macmillan 2012. Pg. 128

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While this model is simple to understand, and is reiterated to some degree with short explanatory passages throughout the corresponding descriptions concerning the functionality and a few possible choices to be made in each step it is a reductionist rendition of the complexities that a brand goes through in order to develop effectively and sustainably. Showing no sign of reiteration as to the planned measures to engage in the building process, no time frame, only isolated and decontextualised goals and no evidence of a more elaborate system of controls that transcends the possibility of checking on the scale where the brand one is assessing may be positioned, this model may lack the depth to be truly instrumental as a guide to effectively developing a luxury brand. The singular nature of this construct deters consideration of all possible alternate avenues of development, and what comes between or qualitatively within each stage. There is a lack of futures-oriented strategic discourse enclosed, which can lead to misinterpretation. The future representation in this instance is linear and singular, normative and lacks the possibility of deviation, or explorative material concerning forms of action which may return to the brand to the original course should deviation occur.

The futures representations herein are thus not easily adaptable without a certain amount of prior knowledge, and this particular texts treatment of the matter is more descriptive than prescriptive. The arrangement of different temporal stages may also be challenged, as brand awareness precedes brand positioning in this diagram, which lends itself to critique on the grounds of inaccuracy, the one cannot temporal precede the other, as brand awareness may be held secondary to brand positioning.

The second model that pertains to a luxury brands life cycle is depicted in Figure 3.1 as a line graph extending along time on the X axis and sales on the Y axis. This model aims to portray the development of a luxury brand in terms of its product offerings, and their market performance, from inception of the initial product and consequent launch of the brand, through stages of initial growth, perceived maturity and consequent decline. This model likens a luxury brands developmental stages to those of a person, and specifically refers to a life cycle. Although a brand has no life of its own, this metaphor allows for an immediate understanding of the historicity of a brand. An account on which this may be deemed misleading is the relatively unitary length of a persons life, and anthropomorphic representation such as these may incite the perception of uniformity with regards to a brands timeline. This problem is aptly dealt with in the text, as reiterated below.

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FIGURE 3.1 - THE BRAND LIFE CYCLE

The diagram above depicts several brands, positioned at different perceived stages of temporal development, with the dates at which the

brands were perceived to have been at these stages inscribed. xl

Whilst this likening to a persons developmental stages may, as said, be misleading, this representation accounts for a lot more detail than the flow diagram shown in Figure 3.0. The graphical representation of a luxury brands developmental steps in Figure 3.1 are much more detailed. Referencing stages to sales volume in relation to temporal age, and through the provision of brands as examples on the scale allows for a deeper understanding of a contextualised time frame. The aims or goals are not specifically weighted in the diagram, although outlines in the form of the steps marked launch, growth, maturity and decline indicate the futures representations that are encoded herein. The referential examples that have been provided allow for a certain measure of control of performance, even if the dimensions of the above diagram is singular and without context. Due to the ability to assign a relative stage to any given case study in comparison to the historical data portrayed, a founded assessment may be made. Thus, the futures representations that may be discerned from this particular model of a luxury brands life cycle are much more complex than in the first instance, allowing for preparation, adaptation and planning that takes into consideration variables that were unknown in the instance of Figure 3.0, and the information provided in conjunction with this.

What is also important to denote is that Figure 3.1 is rendered not as an isolated master model that aims to portray the machinations of a luxury brands life cycle, it is complimented by various exemplary graphs depicting the sales growth of successfully developed luxury brands, charted over a period of the past 22 years.

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. ISBN: xl978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 140

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FIGURE 3.2 - HERMES SALES (IN MILLION EUROS) FIGURE 3.3 - FERRAGAMO SALES (IN MILLION EUROS)

The above chart reflects the historical sales The above chart reflects the historical sales of the Hermes brand from 1988 - 2010. of the Ferragamo brand from 1988 - 2010. xli xlii

These two examples of the complimentary brand performance information provided in this particular volume, Chevalier & Mazzalvolos Luxury Brand Management (2nd ed.), show the potential depth such literature can take on. The data provided, which in the literature is even more extensive, ranging across a variety of brands, allows the inquirer to gain a relatively firm understanding of the variety of circumstantial developments a luxury brand may undergo. The section also includes detailed descriptions of the circumstances that led to individual instances along the historical timeline. For example, the authors denote that Ferragamo, whos sales are depicted in Figure 3.3, seemed to enter into the deep maturity phase, until it finally showed outstanding results in 2010 with growth of 24 percent , as depicted in the diagram above. This qualitative xliii

reiteration of prior historical developmental occurrences allows the reader to gain a much deeper understanding of the model depicted in Figure 3.1, and allows for much more variable, complex and even explorative futures representations to be contemplated in relation to the task of luxury brand development. The spectrum of knowable possible, probable, plausible and desirable futures is thus extended immensely. This qualitative reiteration also shows that a model such as the one depicted in Figure 3.1 is an indicative tool, and is not to be taken as a paradigmatic truth formula that reflects a consistent way that luxury brands develop over a temporal space. This form of engagement allows for enough insight to create an understanding of the holistic context in which a luxury brand develops, and the plethora of environmental, internal, financial and other influxes that can effect this development.

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. ISBN: xli978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 142

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. xliiISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 143

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. xliiiISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 142

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As extensive as the body of case studies is, and the varying scenarios it propounds, it is also structured enough to include a case study for the scenario of a brand that eventually actually does reach a state of decline, staying true to the model. The case study outlining the financial woes that the former came a giant Kodak encountered, depicted in Figure 3.4, and the steady decline in sales from 1995 onward this company had to deal with is instructive to the observer. It is instructive in that it shows another form of possible alternate path of development, that of a brand at the height of its glory, and its subsequent regressive development to decline in a turbulent market, upset by the digitalisation of film and the revolutionising of photography. Whilst this example does not refer to a luxury brand, similar examples can be gleaned in other texts also.

FIGURE 3.4 - KODAK SALES (IN MILLION EUROS)

The above chart reflects the historical sales of the Kodak brand from 1960 - 2010. xliv

In addition to this case of decline, cases of relaunch or overhaul are also exemplified, as in the case of Guccis repositioning at a stage of sales stagnation. It is stated that The brands traditional values were replaced by the universe of the Hollywood swingles. xlv

(Chevalier & Mazzolovo, 2012). This short passage, referring to one of the largest brand repositioning endeavours in the history of the luxury industry as a whole, indicates that luxury brand development as a field is very well versed in alternate histories, perspectives, futures-oriented outlooks and possible representations of such futures.

Such a qualitative wealth of information makes for a variety of scenarios that may be explored from a managers point of view, and enriches the luxury brand management discipline. While no sophisticated forms of prescriptive planning methodologies were evidently recorded or lent to the subject matter here, real time frames were reiterated,

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. xlivISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 154

Chevalier & Mazzalovo (2012), Luxury Brand Management: A world of Privilege. xlvISBN: 978 0 4708 2326 2, John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd. Pg. 157

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and solid aims and goals were to be discerned from the above information. Exemplary case studies can even be categorised as forms of controls that allow for reflexive engagement when studying the development of other luxury brands or engaging in development personally.

Luxury Brand Growth

The theme of brand growth is of course intrinsically linked to that of brands life cycles, but differs in the sense that it may be based on other factors that are not necessarily alluded to as semiotic, coherent models or stage based developmental theories. Luxury brand growth, usually charted by economic performance and relative market share, is presented throughout most of these texts in some formalised manner or another.

This growth, charted and modelled in its different forms, lends future perspective to the field of luxury brand development, providing planning models, time frames, aims and goals as well as controls to be able to engage in futures representations. While these models again all represent a varying degree of depth and complexity, some allowing for more explorative, others for more normative insights, they are nevertheless prevalent amongst the text studied.

The following two examples are visuals selected for their semantic value in relationship to the markers used, and their adherent meanings and implications related to futures representations will be extrapolated below. Several other instances were encountered, but for the sake of representation the following examples were analysed effectively and in a meaningful manner.

The first example is an NPV, or Net Present Value, projection chart which exemplifies the effect of initial investment at the inception of a luxury brand, as opposed to the development with no initial investment, on operational cash flows, and a subsequent NPV position.

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FIGURE 4.0 - PROJECTED NPV

The above chart shows the cash flow projections for a luxury brand, and the effect initial investment has on the same company. xlvi

Effectively, the chart represents two alternate financial scenarios, and thus two differing financial, and consequentially operational future representations. These form the basis for further meaningful engagement with the subject of investment and its effect on a luxury brands development over time. This planning tool exhibits concrete parameters in the form of financial instances, a solid operational time frame in the shape of a ten year financial projection space, discernible aims in that its overarching aim may be seen as the goal to provide a model that allows for sound financial planning, a secondary aim of educating on possible alternative paths to luxury brand developmen