04/22/23

Material Scarcity Reportand Industrial Perspectives

EU – US workshop on Rare Earths,MITEI Boston, December 3rd 2010

D.W. Bol, M2i

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Introduction M2i

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OrganizationPublic private partnership between industry, academia and government. M2i program empowered by Dutch ministry of Economic Affairs

MissionNew materials for economic growth of industryand for creating a sustainable society

International cooperationWith European industrial and university partners to strengthen the knowledge base and economic cooperation.

Materials innovation institute

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Working modelMaterial research questions from industry Applied scientific research projects at universities with strong coupling to industry. Plus projects to support application.

Research forceOver 130 M2i researchers (Ph.D. students and Postdocs) working at15 different universities.

ScopeInnovation in structural and functional materials: metals, coatings, surfaces, multimaterials, composites, foils

Materials innovation institute

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Material innovation at M2i

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Materials to innovate industry and society

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Industrial Partners

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University Partners • Delft University of Technology• Eindhoven University of Technology• University of Twente • University of Groningen• RWTH Aachen University• Radboud University Nijmegen• FOM Rijnhuizen Nieuwegein• FOM Corporate Utrecht• Utrecht University• Cambridge University• Oxford University• Leuven University• Max Planck Düsseldorf• EPFL (Lausanne)• Sheffield University• Chalmers University• Leiden University

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Material scarcity report

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M2i study• Desk study and interviews with

industry on materials scarcity

• To learn about scope, urgency of scarcity and impact on business

• To support thinking about right approach and role M2i

• Input for Dutch government and others

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ContentsM2istudy

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Static reservesYears of production until exhaustion(world consumption = 50 % that of the US)

Source: HCSS, Scarcity of Minerals

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Dynamic reservesReserves and production of minerals (ton)

years

1996 2007

Source: HCSS, Scarcity of Minerals

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Mineral reserves

Elementson the planet

Elementsin mineral form

0.01 – 0.001 %

Elementsin Earth’s crust

<< 1 %

Reserves

0.01 – 0.001 %

Yearly production

0.1 – 10 %

Political/ Energy/ Ecological/ Technological barriers

Mineralogicalbarrier

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Barriers for minerals production•Geopolitical

• Technical

• Ecological

• Energy

•Water

•Ground

Mining at lower ore grade requires vast amounts of energy

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Critical elements• Findings in line with and

augmented by EU list of critical materials

• Supply risk (EU)• Political-economic stability• Environmental country risk

supplyrisk

economicimportance

criticalelements

x Copper

• Apply on mid and long term• Can turn other raw materials

into critical elements

• Additional factors• Energy consumption• Water consumption• Ground usage

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Scenarios for transitionTopic of this workshop:

• Material policies for transition to a sustainable energy sources

Material scarcity report

• Searched for policies for transition to sustainable use of materials in general

• Inspired by Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050(transitions to sustainable energy society in 2050)

• Two scenarios

• Scramble scenario

• Blue print scenario

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Scramble scenarioStart:

• Public, scientific, industrial concern for imminent material scarcity -> number of isolated initiatives to tackle the problem

Than:

• No clear action to combine initiatives; reluctant adoption of national policy

• Tightening of material resources is dealt with only on national level

• Focus is on securing supply of resources, not on alternatives or efficiency

• In 2010 – 2020: first crises in supply of materials resources, steep prize rises, some industry out of business, more crises to come

• Draconian measures to come to sustainable use of material resources

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Blue print scenarioStart:

• Public, scientific, industrial concern for imminent material scarcity -> number of isolated initiatives to tackle the problem

Than:

• Combination of policies at national level, start of international cooperation

• National governments and EU sponsor research on facts and alternatives

• Int. research and industrial policies focus on alternatives and efficiency

• Pricing mechanism to include environmental and other social costs

• Level playing field for material resources for all industries

• A sustainable economic growth and sustainable use of material resources

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Industrial perspectives

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Industry’s responseto material scarcityResponse• Industry response on material scarcity: ‘not an issue’ or ‘no comment’

• Industry looks at• Price developments (prime indicator of scarcity)• Availability on long term (competing industries, production of materials)

• Added value of products determines approach to scarcity• Bulk products: Serious research for alternatives• High added value products: Continue to use scarce materials

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Industry’s reluctancetowards material scarcity

Reluctance

• Long lead time for innovation solutions (~ 10 years)

• Scarcity issues often beyond time horizon of industry

• Return on investments in new technologies uncertainty in scarcity and resource prices

However• Industry susceptible to social and environmental requirements

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Industry’s opportunitieswith respect to material scarcity

Recycling getting a boost

• Recycling of rare earths and other metals from waste streams

• Design to recycle of high tech products

Product development towards less use of scarce materials

• Less susceptible to supply risks and price fluctuations

• Appealing to environmentally conscientious public

• Competitive advantage in terms of costs and customer appeal

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Industry andCritical Materials for Sustainable Energy Sustainable Energy Sources are new and material intensive

• New no status quo, no conservatism

• Material intensive alternatives for scare materials are essential

Preferred line of action

• Pre-competitive research on enabling material alternatives – government funded/ international cooperation

• Early (financial) involvement of industry to steer and apply material research