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System Dynamics for Urban Sustainability Analysis. Matteo Pedercini Millennium Institute, Washington D.C. Overview. Introduction to the Millennium Institute System Dynamics (SD) for urban planning T21 integrated SD model Prospective for urban application of T21 Conclusions. 1. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Matteo PederciniMillennium Institute, Washington D.C.
System Dynamics for Urban Sustainability Analysis
Overview1. Introduction to the Millennium Institute
2. System Dynamics (SD) for urban planning
3. T21 integrated SD model
4. Prospective for urban application of T21
5. Conclusions
Millennium Institute on the Map
T 21 Countries
MI Partner
MI Head Office
M 3 Countries
MEG Countries
SD for Urban Planning1
What is System Dynamics?SD for Urban Planning2
Brief HistorySD for Urban Planning2
Brief HistorySD for Urban Planning2
A Current ExampleSD for Urban Planning2
Strengths of the ApproachSD for Urban Planning2
Non-Linearity
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
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0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Major Delays
Accumulation
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Output
Input
Strengths of the ApproachSD for Urban Planning2
• Support policy analysis on mid-long term development issues from an integrated perspective
• Global, regional, national, (urban) challenges:
Food security and poverty
Climate Change and natural disasters
Resources, emissions and sustainability
Equity and vulnerability
Focus of Threshold 21Overview of T213
T21 – Core StructureOverview of T213
MI’s T21 applications are grounded in the principle of Integration:
(1) Integration of social, economic, and environmental dimensions of development
(2) Integration of knowledge and input from different sources and stakeholders
(3) Integration of planning instruments across sectors, time horizons, and spatial scales
Integration: the leading principleOverview of T213
Multiple goals in multiple sectors:
• Macroeconomy• Agriculture• Industry• Poverty• Infrastructure• Education• Health
Example: National Strategic Plan
Vision
Overview of T213
What policy impact/contribution from each?
• Macroeconomy • Agriculture • Industry • Poverty • Infrastructure • Education • Health
Vision
Overview of T213
Example: National Strategic Plan
What interactions across sectors?
• Macroeconomy• Agriculture• Industry• Poverty• Infrastructure• Education• Health
Vision
Overview of T213
Example: National Strategic Plan
How much draw on resource base?• Macroeconomy• Agriculture• Industry• Poverty• Infrastructure• Education• Health
Vision and
Sustainability
Water Land Energy Pollution Debt
Overview of T213
Example: National Strategic Plan
Stakeholder ForaOverview of T213
Causal Mapping
access toaffordable finance
income generatingactivities
income
access to basichealth care access to
education
employment
infrastructure
food andnutrition security
security / absenceof violence
investment
food production
labour force
gender parity
access to land
family planning
literacyrate
participation inpolicy processesgood governance
water harvesting availability ofwater
entrepreneurial skills /marketing information
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research anddevelopment
population
food availability+
food losses
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+capital
cultivated land
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information knowledgeand technology
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access to productiveresources
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nutritional value
stunting rate
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food access
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agriculture value addition/ processing industries
foodprices
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safety netexternal food
aid+
locally sourcessafety net
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extension
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applied knowledgeand technology
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life expectancy+
biopesticides
pests anddiseases
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sustainability ofcrops and livestock
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mechanisation
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land tenure
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arable land
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urbanization-+
arable landper farmer-
total factorproductivity
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planning forland use
local regionalexport / trade
storage capacity
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farmersorganization
risk insurance
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preharvestlosses
income loss due topreharvest loss
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natural resources
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marketaccess +
diversity of food
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food preferences
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rural poverty
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chemicalpesticides
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inputprices
inputs-
training onentrepreneurial skills
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Legend
Example for policy action
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fertilizer
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energyaccess
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climatechangeearly warning
systems
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Overview of T213
Framework and Challenges4 T21 for Urban Planning
• Scaling and adapting T21 to urban level
• 100 Smarter cities – application with Huangshi
and Xiamen
• Treatment of spatial dimension
• Data availability
• Capacity development and institutionalization
Summary5 Conclusions
T21 is an integrated simulation model that helps
managing complexity in policy-making:
• Based on system dynamics
• Support open and inclusive planning
• Facilitate the identification of effective policies
• Integrates social, economic, and environmental factors
T21 – Urban Planning
Thank You forYour Time
www.millennium-institute.org
