MBA Prequel & Overview

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MBA Prequel & Overview. * The Modeling Approach * ‘Deliverables’ Discussion. Objectives of this Presentation. Understand Industry Analysis Understand Marketing Analysis Understand Marketing Plan Understand Cash Budget Understand Pro Forma Financials - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of MBA Prequel & Overview

  • MBA Prequel & Overview* The Modeling Approach

    * Deliverables Discussion

  • Objectives of this PresentationUnderstand Industry AnalysisUnderstand Marketing AnalysisUnderstand Marketing PlanUnderstand Cash BudgetUnderstand Pro Forma Financials

    Master the concept of the environment

    Understand multiple models rationale (more later)Understand framing and chunkingUnderstand true marketing complexity

  • Master the concept of the environmentIndustry Analysis (p. 45)Industry, market and competitive environmentEconomic environmentTechnological environmentSocial, legal, and political environmentDemographic environment

    Market Analysis & Sales Forecast (p. 65)Geographic boundariesEconomic, competitive and social factorsFirms market nicheTarget market specific characteristics for offeringSales potentialCompetitive firms & offerings

    Suggested in DeThomas textbook: (Covered later)

  • Master the concept of the environmentSpecificCustomerCompetitorsChannels (p. 109-110)Compliance: Legal/Regulatory . . . Company/Firm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GeneralTechnology . . . . . . Every digital/other advantageEconomy . . . . . . . Up the sand dune, or down?Ethics . . . . . . . . . . What would Mama say?

    } External

    Rule Framework Internal

    . . . . . . . .

  • Direct CompetitorsYour FirmYour Industry (Industry Analysis)Substitute IndustryIndirect CompetitorsEnvironment Technical, Economic, Regulatory, Ethical, Users, Buyers, Try-ers, Sales Data, Markets (Market Analysis), Segments/Niches, etc.Secondary/Own Financials replicate, create, emulateObserved/Own Operations replicate, create, emulate

    DUEDILIGENCEObserved/Own Strategy replicate, create, emulate (intended behaviors)

  • Direct CompetitorsYour FirmYour Industry (Industry Analysis)Substitute IndustryIndirect CompetitorsEnvironment Technical, Economic, Regulatory, Ethical, Users, Buyers, Try-ers, Sales Data, Markets (Market Analysis), Segments/Niches, etc.Secondary/Own Financials replicate, create, emulateObserved/Own Operations replicate, create, emulate

    DUEDILIGENCECreative Destruction- SchumpeterObserved/Own Strategy replicate, create, emulate (intended behaviors)

  • John R. Boyd in the early 1950s was a young U.S. Air Force fighter pilot at Nellis Air Force Base NV a figher pilot cocky even by fighter-pilot standards.

    He regularly issued a challenge to all comers: You get on my six and Ill be on your tail (he didnt say tail) in forty seconds or Ill give you $40!

    Using the F-86 (later the F-100) he was always on their tail within 40 seconds.

    It is said that he never lost. His ability to win any dogfight in 40 seconds got him his early nickname Forty-Second Boyd.Forty-Second BoydCites from this book and from Hammond. Details available some editing done

  • John R. Boyd in the early 1950s was a young U.S. Air Force fighter pilot at Nellis Air Force Base NV a figher pilot cocky even by fighter-pilot standards.

    He regularly issued a challenge to all comers: You get on my six and Ill be on your tail (he didnt say tail) in forty seconds or Ill give you $40!

    Using the F-86 (later the F-100) he was always on their tail within 40 seconds.

    It is said that he never lost. His ability to win any dogfight in 40 seconds got him his early nickname Forty-Second Boyd.Forty-Second Boyd Thrust - DragMost impressive: * Velocity = Ps or Energy-Maneuverability Weight

  • Boyd applied his intuitive understanding of energy maneuverability to the

    study of aeronautics. In the 1970s, he helped design and champion the F-16,

    an aluminum manifestation of everything he knew about competition.

    Then he focused his tenacious intellect on something grander, an expression

    of agility that, for him and others, became a consuming passion: OODA loop.

  • Observation; orientation; decision; action - On the face of it, Boyd's loop is a

    simple reckoning of how human beings make tactical decisions. But it's also an

    elegant framework for creating competitive advantage.

    Operating "inside" an adversary's OODA loop -- that is, acting quickly to out-think and out-maneuver rivals -- will, Boyd wrote, "make us appear ambiguous, [and]

    thereby generate confusion and disorder, i.e. Boise State beat Oklahomahow?

    The product of a singular, half-century-long journey through the realms of

    science,history, and moral philosophy, Boyd's ideas both augment and

    challenge conventional thinking about organizations and conflict.

    Boyd himself, a cigar-smoking maverick, enjoyed distinctive unpopularity in official

    Pentagon circles. But even among critics, his OODA loop was much harder to

    dismiss. Effective OODA was an elegant manifestation of cheng/chi.

  • The concept is just as powerful when applied to business. The convergence of

    rapidly globalizing competition, real-time communication, and smarter information

    technology has led to a reinvention of the meaning and practice of strategy.

    What do you do in the semiconductor industry and other sectors where the time

    advantage of proprietary technology is collapsing even as the cost of developing

    it explodes?

    Companies in manufacturing, telecommunications, retail in nearly every business

    are discovering that fashion, fad, and fickle customers require constant

    vigilance and adjustment. We operate in a video-game world where time is

    compressing, information goes everywhere, and the Rules of the Game

    change abruptly and continuously.Creative Destruction

  • Destruction?Yes, even demolition and disassemblyDisintermediation and reintermediationChild of the InternetProcesses revolutionizedCompeting on timeFlankingCheng / ChiDemolition/destruction is not the exceptionWrecking the market is every entrepreneurs goalJoseph Schumpeterand John Boyd

  • John Boyd: Thought Experiment?We are having a terrible time traveling in snow what is available as a vehicle to accomplish this travel from ANY SOURCE? Lets mentally PILE all the parts together after taking everything apartPlus others?

  • The outcome of this analysis and synthesis was very innovative:

    Originally conceived by Karl Eliason of Wisconsin in 1924 in a toboggan form . . .

  • John Boyd: Thought ExperimentThen the snowmobile was produced by Joseph-Armand Bombardier of Quebec in 1958 after being redesigned and re-patented into the form we all know today.

  • V-22 Osprey Tilt Rotor in Hovering FlightHelicopter, STOL, or Airplane.?YesHybridJoint effort: Boeing and Bell Helicopter Textron, Inc.

  • What about Farming by the Foot?

    Mississippi Delta MSU Test Site Ed Hood farm

    Geographic Positioning System + Geographic Information System + Satellite Imagery + Modified Farm Equipment

    Combinations of hybrid technologies

    Much less cost with more production and hugely friendly to River and Gulf

    Satellite Imagery and AnalysisKnowledge of tractor position to the footG P S

  • Toasted Sliced BreadInnovation can be mundane, but still exciting. Bread was not very standard for many years, then it was baked to size. But it was sold by the loaf because slicing the loaf ahead of time caused it to dry out very quickly.The airtight wrapping changed that and it could be sliced. Soon Wonder Bread led the way.An inventor had created the toaster but it was not selling because inconsistent slicing by the preparer caused a hassle.Standard bread and slices solved the problem. Sliced bread met the toaster. Voila!

  • Cell Phones and Sat ComI am not going to insult your intelligence by explaining sat com and the cell phone. Technologies are rapidly evolving, a better word may be revolving, honoring an evolution-revolution contrast! BUTFYI it has been interestingIridium has over 66 satellites in orbit and began service in late 1998. However, due to poor marketing, high charges, late delivery of workable phones, gigantic debt load, spread of terrestrial cell phone systems, etc., the company attracted only 63 thousand subscribers instead of the 100s of thousands expected by mid-1999. It declared bankruptcy and even planned to begin de-orbiting of the satellites.

    In November 2000, however, an investor group purchased the Iridium assets for $25 million. It received a 2 year contract with the US Dept. of Defense to supply communications services. Without a $4 billion debt to pay off, the new company, called Iridium Satellite, only had to attract another 30k of subscribers to break even.

    The company reported in June of 2005 that it was profitable and had over 127,000 users. The company has said that it intends to apply for a FCC license for a 96 satellite system to replace the current constellation when it is expected to start failing around 2010. They expect to fill the capacity of the current system (guessing around 2 or 3 million users) before then.Iridium GlobalstarThuraya

  • Direct CompetitorsYour FirmYour Industry (Industry Analysis)Substitute IndustryIndirect CompetitorsEnvironment Technical, Economic, Regulatory, Ethical, Users, Buyers, Try-ers, Sales Data, Markets (Market Analysis), Segments/Niches, etc.Secondary/Own Financials replicate, create, emulateObserved/Own Operations replicate, create, emulate

    DUEDILIGENCECreative Destruction- SchumpeterObserved/Own Strategy replicate, create, emulate (intended behaviors)

  • Direct CompetitorsYour FirmYour Industry (Industry Analysis)Substitute IndustryIndirect CompetitorsEnvironment Technical, Economic, Regulatory, Ethical, Users, Buyers, Try-ers