McNay, R.S., and R. Davies. 1985. Interactions between ... · PDF fileRehabilitate terrestrial forage lichens • Lichens will be most abundant in stands with poorly developed canopies

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McNay, R.S., and R. Davies. 1985. Interactions between black-tailed deerand intensive forest management: problem analysis. Research, Ministries of Environment and Forests. IWIFR-22. Victoria, BC

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Contrasting Experiences in Adaptive ManagementCaribou recovery in north-central BC

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Presentation ComponentsProblem definitionElements of project designExpected services or productsMonitoringCostsWhy adaptive management in these casesWhat went wrong and what went rightHow has adaptive management helped

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Problem DefinitionRehabilitate terrestrial forage lichens

• Availability of terrestrial forage lichens determines habitat use patterns• Abundance of lichens• Snow depth• Snow hardness

020

40

60

80

0 20

40

0102030405060708090100

Snow depth (cm)% cover (Cladina)

Like

lihoo

d of

use

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• Lichens will be most abundant in stands with poorly developed canopies• Soil texture (nutrients,

moisture)• Canopy cover (micro-

climate)• Lichens are likely the

climax community on poorest sites

• Interception of snow will allow caribou to crater more efficiently

Mesic - successional Xeric – not successional

Increasing lichensIncreasing moisture

and nutrients

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• Ecological succession of plant communities will reduce lichen abundance

PolytrichumCladonia

Cladina/Stereocaulon

FeathermossPe

rcen

t Co

ver

ofRe

inde

er L

iche

ns

Years From DisturbanceYoung Prime Late Prime Old

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Polytrichum

Cladonia

Cladina/Stereocaulon

Moss Woodland

AgeClass

Lichen SuccessionPhase

12345678-8+9

0

Are

a (h

a)

1000

2000

3000

4000

Year 2000

Age Class

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8- 8+ 9

Year 2140

Year 2090

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8- 8+ 9

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Are

a (h

a)

Year 2060

• Due to past disturbance history, we expect a decline in the supply of pine-lichen woodlands

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• Stakeholders tended to be more familiar with arboreal lichens

• Caribou originally considered as a constraint but now viewed as an opportunity (in some places)

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Which forestry practices provide the most suitable biophysical conditions for rehabilitation of terrestrial forage lichens?

“

”

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Problem DefinitionMitigate risk of predation

• Logging is the leading disturbance factor (n.b., natural colonization, climate change, beetles)

• Key is wider spatial overlap with caribou

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• Reducing predators has been effective at increasing ungulate survival rates (and populations)

Bergerud, A.T. 2006. The need for the management of wolves – an open letter.Rangifer Special Issue 17: 39-50.

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• Historic reduction programs were• Extensive• Costly• Temporary• Not universally

accepted

Prot

est O

ver I

daho

Wolf

Contro

l

Howl of protest greets planned Alaska wolf kill

Wolf cull sparks howls of protest..Norway

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• Rate of decline in many caribou populations indicates extirpation in 1-3 decades

• Rehabilitating habitat to discourage use by primary prey would take 5-7 decades

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180

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danc

e10 20 30 40 50

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rpat

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tora

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• Biologists still debate the likelihood of success

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Can regulated, licensed trapping of wolves lead to sufficient reduction in predation to avoid use of a more indiscriminate reduction of predators for the purpose of caribou recovery?

“

”

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Problem DefinitionBroad comparison

• Urgency for action• Uncertainty about

direction• Willingness to accept

risk in order to learn

• Spatial resolution• Stand vrs landscape• 100 vrs 100,000 ha

• Management domain• Forestry• Wildlife

• Degree of controversy• Degree of economic

gain

Similarities Differences

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Elements of Project DesignSeemingly, all the planets must align!

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Project DesignRehabilitate terrestrial forage lichens

• Used a graphical modeling technique to articulate factors and environmental relationships

• Built model in a collaborative workshop setting

Nyberg, J.B., Marcot, B.G., and Sulyma, R. 2006. Using Bayesian belief networksin adaptive management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36: 3104-3116.

PREP: Site Prep

REM: Stand Removal

STOK: Stocking

SA: Stand AgeOMD: Organic Matter Disturbance

SEA: Removal Season

PLWR_TLFA: Terrestrial Lichen Forage Abundance

ASP: Aspect

ECO: Ecological Unit

PINE: Stand Percent Pine

SI50: FC1 Site Index

TLHC: Terrestrial Lichen Habitat Capability

SC: Stand Characteristics

FFC: Forest Floor Characteristics

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• Used model to identify potential treatments and to pose hypotheses

TreatmentRegime

PredictedCondn for

Lichen

HarvestingMethod

HarvestingSeason

SitePreparation

RegenMethod

1 Best WT Winter None Natural

2 Good CTL Winter None Natural

3 Good CTL Summer None Natural

4 Moderate CTL Summer None Plant

5 Worst CTL Summer DragScarify Natural

6 Good WT Summer None Nat

7 Moderate WT Summer None Plant

8 Worst WT Summer DragScarify Natural

9 Worst WT Summer DragScarify Plant

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• The matrix resulted in 3 pair-wise comparisons:• Mineral soil and forest

floor disturbance• 1v2, 3v6, 4v7, 5v8

• Build up of organic biomass and CWD

• 1v6, 2v3, 3v5, 6v8• Alterations of

irradiance at the forest floor

• 3v4, 6v7, 8v9

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• Reconnaissance to identify 3 large areas for treatments

• Each area ~105ha

SBPSmc1 SBSmc2

SBSmk

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• Established controls• Participated in treatment

layout• Conducted pre-treatment

sampling• Direct treatment activities• Conducted post-treatment

sampling• Documented objectives,

methods, and data collection

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Project DesignMitigate predation risk

• Assessed pattern of mortality

• Determined most deaths were adults preyed on by wolves during spring migration

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5

10

15

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25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Accident/Nutrition HumanPredation Unknown

Month

No.

o f

Dea

ths

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• Used graphical modelling to articulate the factors and relationships important for predicting moose habitat (i.e., high risk for caribou)

• Tested model with mortality data

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• Presented information to multi-stakeholder recovery team

• Led workshop to establish basic treatment characteristics• Reduction of wolves by

operation of a regulated, licensed trapper

• Reduction of moose by implementing an aggressive Limited Entry Hunt

Wolf Removal

Limited Wolf RemovalRegular Moose Harvest

Moose Harvest Enhancement

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• Important that stakeholders approved mostly based on principles of holistic management

Life RequisitesLife Requisites

DisplacementDisplacement MortalityMortality

CompetitionCompetition

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Project DesignBroad comparison

• Dependent on previous studies

• Workshops to build collaborations and partnerships

• Graphical modeling to build ownership, present ecology, and determine hypotheses

• Replication• Number of treatments

(passive, active)• Sophistication of

hypotheses• Risk


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Expected Services and ProductsA distinguishing feature of adaptive management?

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Expected Services and ProductsBroad comparison

• Early-season access to fiber (i.e., start-up wood)

• Rejuvenation of terrestrial forage lichens

• Knowledge

Note that services to industry accrue much quicker

• Reduced predation leading to larger populations of caribou

• Retention of stakeholder confidence

• Knowledge

Note lack of economic benefits

Rehabilitate terrestrial forage lichens

Mitigate predation risk

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MonitoringWe are the champions? …Freddie Mercury

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MonitoringRehabilitate terrestrial forage lichens

• Forest stand evaluations• Coarse woody debris• Plant communities• Organic and mineral soil

disturbance

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MonitoringMitigate predation risk

• Caribou population• Survival• Mortality• Recruitment (spring,

fall, late winter)• Size

• Wolves• Distribution, pack sizes• Kill, consumption rates• Number of wolves

removed (when, where)

• Moose population size• Winter severity• Disturbance factors

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MonitoringBroad comparison

• Technically straight-forward

• Simple relationships• Easy logistics

• Technically challenging• Complex relationships• Difficult logistics



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CostsWho owns the project?

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100.0284,000Total

54.2154,000Monitoring

31.790,000Implementation

8.825,000Design

5.315,000ProblemLichens

100.01,052,600Total

95.71,007,000Monitoring

1.718,000Implementation

0.00Design

2.627,600ProblemPredation

%CostPhaseProject

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88%

2% 9% 1%

LBIP GOVT FSP SFP

386,

123 80

5,00

0

992,

323

1,37

5,31

51,

386,

445

515,

471

294,

092

157,

746

350,

455

559,

667

601,

327

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

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CostsBroad comparison

• Dependent on external funding

• Implementation costs• Monitoring costs


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SummaryWhy adaptive management?What went wrong/right?How has adaptive management helped?

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SummaryWhy adaptive management?

• Enough basic knowledge to pose a reasonable question

• Pressure to manage• Accepted risk in order to

learn

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SummaryWhat went wrong?

• Down turn in lumber markets

• Mountain pine beetle• Length of lag in

response

• Difficult and expensive to monitor

• Control herd adjacent to treatment herd

• Tenuous funding• No replicates



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SummaryWhat went right?

• Multi-stakeholder collaboration and support

• Established General Wildlife Measures

• Supply of fibre• Design included

replicates• Foundation for further

work (e.g., fire)

• Multi-stakeholder collaboration and support

• Champion for wolf removals

• Knowledgeable public• Outside the range of

Government radar



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SummaryHow has adaptive management helped?

• Kept licensees and other stakeholders engaged

• Provided opportunities for dialogue among diverse interest groups

• Substantive evidence for moving forward on some policy pieces

• Has led to better understanding and refinement of management

340,029 ha of UWR

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SummaryHow has adaptive management helped?

• Kept licensees and other stakeholders engaged

• Provided opportunities for dialogue among diverse interest groups

• Substantive evidence for moving forward on some policy pieces

• Has led to better understanding and refinement of management

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Further Informationwww.wildlifeinfometrics.com

FOREST INVESMENT ACCOUNT

Contact me at [email protected]

Documents

McNay, R.S., and R. Davies. 1985. Interactions between ... · PDF fileRehabilitate terrestrial forage lichens • Lichens will be most abundant in stands with poorly developed canopies