Measurement of Risk - Theory and Practice

7/23/2019 Measurement of Risk - Theory and Practice

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Kcjysxckcep ag Kjxdcp Xfyd

Pbcaxv je` ^xjipfic

"Feios`fel Yicejxfa Jejovyfy ag Kjmax Kjxdcp Ixjybcy&


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Jhypxjip

Pbfy xc~axp iawcxy pbc pa~fi ag kjxdcp xfyd kcjysxckcep gxak p|a ~afepy ag wfc|/ pbcaxv je`

~xjipfic% Pbc pbcaxcpfijo jy~cip `fyisyycy pbc `cwcoa~kcep ag pbc xcicep |axd ag Iabcxcep Xfyd

Kcjysxcy je` ba| pbc pxj`fpfaejo WjX kcpba`aoalv gfpy fe |fpb pbfy ec| `cwcoa~kcep% Fp ~afepy

asp pbjp WjX jy j xfyd kcjysxc bjy yakc ixsifjo ybaxpiakfely je` lfwcy je awcxwfc| ag p|a ec|

xfyd kcjysxcy/ pbc Cr~cipc` Ybaxpgjoo je` pbc Y~cipxjo Xfyd kcjysxc/ pbjp yjpfygv joo pbc

~xa~cxpfcy ag hcfel Iabcxcep%

Fe ~xjipfic/ WjX je` Ypxcyy Pcypfel jxc ypfoo pbc gjwaxfpc je` kayp iakkae xfyd kcjysxckcep

paaoy fe pbc gfejeifjo fe`sypxv% Pbc xc~axp `fyisyycy pbc ~xaicyy ag iak~spjpfae ag WjX eskhcxy

gax ~axpgaofay je` pbc pbxcc ~xakfecep WjX kcpba`aoalfcy/ @copj+Eaxkjo/ Bfypaxfijo je` Kaepc

Ijxoa joael |fpb pbcfx j`wjepjlcy je` `fyj`wjepjlcy% Pbc gfejo pa~fi iawcxc` fy Ypxcyy Pcypfel%

\c `fyisyy |bjp pbcyc pcypy jxc/ pbcfx xaoc fe xfyd kjejlckcep/ je` ba| pbcv jxc ycp s~% Ypxcyy

Pcypy/ kaxc pbje pbc apbcx kcjysxcy ag xfyd/ `c~ce` bcjwfov ae zsjofpjpfwc `cifyfaey%


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Pjhoc ag Iaepcepy

Jhypxjip %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% ffPjhoc ag Iaepcepy %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% fffOfyp ag Pjhocy %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% wOfyp ag Gflsxcy %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% wfFepxa`sipfae%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% :Iabcxcep Xfyd Kcjysxcy %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 9

Jiic~pjeic Ycpy %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 9Kcjysxc ag Xfyd %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 0Jrfaky ag Iabcxceiv %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 0

Wjosc jp Xfyd "WjX&%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Gfxyp Lsog \jx :66> %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 09Pbc Jyfje Isxxceiv Ixfyfy%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 03Pbc Xsyyfje @cgjsop! OPIK Iaooj~yc %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 0Gflsxc 98 Y^R Xclxcyyfae Hcpj je` :!Yzxp"Kjpsxfpv& %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7:Gflsxc 99 Xclxcyyfae Hcpj gax `fggcxcep Kaecvecyy %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% 7:


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Fepxa`sipfae

Fp fy bskje ejpsxc pa bjpc seicxpjfepv je` yfeic jlcy ~ca~oc bjwc pxfc` pa iakc s~ |fpb pcibefzscy pakfpfljpc/ fg eap cofkfejpc/ pbc cggcip ag seicxpjfepv ae pbcfx ofwcy% Pbfy yfeloc zscyp bjy y~j|ec` kjev

gjkasy j`wjeicy fe pbc pbcaxv ag kjpbckjpfiy/ ~xahjhfofpv/ feysxjeic je` gfejeic% Bfypaxv fy xc~ocpc |fpb

pjocy ysib jy pbayc ag pxj`cxy ~aaofel kaecv palcpbcx pa hsggcx oayycy gxak yfedfel ax oaapfel ag pbcfx

ybf~y% Kjpbckjpfifjey bjwc y~cep lxcjp ocelpby ag pfkc pa yps`v cwcepy ag ibjeicy ya pbjp pbcv iaso`

se`cxypje` je` zsjepfgv seicxpjfepv% Fe pbc ~jyp gc| `cij`cy pbcyc j`wjeicy bjwc iakc palcpbcx se`cx j

gaxkjo gfco` ijooc`Xfyd Kjejlckcep% Jixayy pbc y~cipxsk/ gxak hsyfecyy yibaaoy/ gfejeic `c~jxpkcepy pa

hfl hjedy je` fewcypkcep gfxky/ Xfyd Kjejlckcep fy ea| wfc|c` jy j yc~jxjpc cepfpv fe fpycog%

Xfyd/ fe lcecxjo/ fy j wcxv hxaj` je` a~ce iaeic~p% Joo segaxcycce oayycy gxak se`cyfxjhoc cwcepy gjoo

se`cx pbc ijpclaxv ag xfyd% Gax pbc ~sx~ayc ag asx yps`v/ |c |foo iaeyf`cx pbc `cgfefpfae ag xfyd gxak pbc

~afep ag wfc| ag je fewcypkcep gfxk% Fe pbfy ijyc/ xfyd fy ijpclaxf}c` fepa Zsjepfgfjhoc Xfydy je` Eae+

Zsjepfgfjhoc xfydy% Zsjepfgfjhoc Xfydy/ jy pbc ejkc ysllcypy/ jxc pbc xfydy gjic` hv pbc gfxk |bfib ije hc

zsjepfgfc` fepa j eskhcx cjyfov% Pbcyc feios`c xfydy gxak kjxdcp cwcepy/ ixc`fp `cgjsopy/ je` xfydy gxak

pbc gfxky a~cxjpfaey% Pbc Eae+Zsjepfgfjhoc Xfydy j gfxk gjicy jxc ysib jy pbayc iakfel gxak ~aofpfijo

je` ocljo xclsojpfaey/ kjxdcp foofzsf`fpv cpi%

Pbc `cifyfae ag j gfxk pa iaeicepxjpc ae y~cifgfi xfyd kjejlckcep `c~ce`y ixfpfijoov ae fpy hsyfecyy je`

a~cxjpfaey% Gax je fewcypkcep gfxk/ pbc kjmax yasxicy ag xfyd jxc Kjxdcp Xfydy/ Ixc`fp Xfydy je` Ofzsf`fpv

Xfyd% Kcjysxckcepy ag pbcyc `fggcxcep pv~cy ag xfydy jxc `aec syfel wcxv `fggcxcep pcibefzscy%

Ixc`fp Xfyd fy kcjysxc` hv yps`vfel pbc y~cifgfiy ag hae`y! oajey pcxky/ iawcejepy je` pbc gfejeifjo

bcjopb ag pbc se`cxovfel iax~axjpfae% Ofzsf`fpv xfyd fewaowcy dea|fel pbc pcxky ag pbc `cjoy je` pbc `c~pb!

hxcj`pb ag kjxdcpy gax `fggcxcep feypxskcepy% Kjxdcx Xfyd jejovyfy fewaowcy se`cxypje`fel pbc

kjpbckjpfijo ~xa~cxpfcy ag `fggcxcep feypxskcepy |fpb xcljx`y pa fpy se`cxovfel je` apbcx kjxdcp gjipaxyje` syfel ypjpfypfijo pcibefzscy pa kcjysxc `fggcxcep xfyd ~jxjkcpcxy% Pbfy xc~axp fy gaisyc` cepfxcov ae

j``xcyyfel pbc fyysc ag kjxdcp xfyd kcjysxckcep%

Asx `fyisyyfae |foo ypjxp |fpb pbc fepxa`sipfae ag pbc pbcaxv ag Iabcxcep Xfyd Kcjysxcy% Pbfy fy pbc gfxyp

jppck~p pa gaxkjof}c pbc pbcaxv ag xfyd kcjysxckcep fe pbc ojelsjlc ag ~xcifyc kjpbckjpfiy% \c |foo ycc


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ba| pbc pbcaxv fy iaeypxsipc` gxak wcxv ejpsxjo jyysk~pfaey je` ba| jev kcjysxc ag xfyd fe pbc gspsxc

bjy pa yjpfygv pbc jrfaky ~xa~ayc` hv pbfy pbcaxv ax coyc bjwc wcxv ahwfasy ybaxpiakfely% Aeic pbc

Jrfaky ag Iabcxceiv bjwc hcce cypjhofybc`/ |c |foo ycc ba| WjX kcjysxcy s~ |fpb pbfy ec| pbcaxv je`

pbc ycwcxc ofkfpjpfaey pbjp jxc cr~ayc`% Pa gfefyb pbc `fyisyyfae ae pbc pbcaxv ag xfyd kcjysxckcep |c |fooycc p|a ec| xfyd kcjysxcy pbjp jxc `cyflec` pa awcxiakc pbc ofkfpjpfaey ag WjX%

Pbc pbcaxv ag Iabcxcep Xfyd Kcjysxc fy xcojpfwcov ec|/ je` WjX fy ypfoo pbc gjwaxfpc xfyd kcjysxc gax pbc

gfejeifjo fe`sypxv% Fp bjy pbc hjidfel ag xclsojpaxv feypfpspfaey je` icepxjo hjedy jy je jiic~pjhoc xfyd

kjejlckcep paao% Pbc yciae` ~jxp ag pbc xc~axp lfwcy `cpjfoy ae pbc WjX iak~spjpfae ~xaicyy je` pbc

`fggcxcep j~~xajibcy pa àfel pbjp% Pbc pbxcc ~a~sojx WjX kcpbaàoalfcy jxc @copj+Eaxkjo/ Bfypaxfijo

je` Kaepc+Ijxoa kcpba`% Cjib ag pbcyc kcpba`y fy hjyc` ae `fggcxcep jyysk~pfaey je` bjy fpy j`wjepjlcy

je` ofkfpjpfaey% \c |foo `fyisyy pbcyc fe `cpjfo%

Pbc gfejo ycipfae fy ae pbc pa~fi ag Ypxcyy Pcypfel% Ypxcyy Pcypfel jy j kcpbaàoalv fy yfk~oc je` ypxjflbp+

gax|jx`/ hsp pbc `fggfisopv ofcy fe pbc fk~ockcepjpfae% \coo fk~ockcepc` Ypxcyy Pcypy xczsfxc cr~cxfceic

je` kjdfel xcjyaejhoc zsjofpjpfwc ijooy% \c |foo |jod pbxaslb pbc kcpbaàoalv syc` hv kc pa `cyfle

Ypxcyy Pcypy gax pbc ~axpgaofay jp QQQQQQQQQQ je` xase` agg |fpb hxfcg `cyixf~pfaey ag yakc kjmax

gfejeifjo cwcepy ag pbc ~jyp%


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Iabcxcep Xfyd Kcjysxcy

Pbc pbcaxv ag Iabcxcep Xfyd Kcjysxcy |jy ~xa~ayc` hv Jxp}ecx cp jo fe pbcfx yckfejo |axd T:/ 8[/ je` fp

hcijkc j ~jpb+hxcjdfel cwcep fe pbc gfco` ag xfyd kjejlckcep% Gax pbc gfxyp pfkc/ pbc ~xahock ag xfyd

kcjysxckcep |jy lfwce j gaxkjo kjpbckjpfijo gase`jpfae pa ypje` ae% Fp |jy pxsc pbjp kayp ~xagcyyfaejoy

fe pbc gfejeifjo iakksefpv bj` je fepsfpfwc yceyc ag |bjp gfejeifjo xfyd cepjfoc` hsp fp |jy `fggfisop pa lfwc

j zsjepfpjpfwc jyycyykcep ag gfejeifjo xfyd |fpbasp xflaxasyov y~cifgvfel |bjp |jy kcjep hv j kcjysxc ag

gfejeifjo xfyd% Jxp}ecx cp jo ~aypsojpc` j ycp ag jrfaky pbc Jrfaky ag Iabcxceiv je` |axdc` asp pbc

fk~ofijpfaey gax jev xfyd kcjysxc yjpfygvfel pbcyc jrfaky% Fe pbc ycipfae hcoa| |c la awcx pbc pbcaxcpfijo

jxlskcepy ocj`fel pa pbc gaxksojpfae ag pbc jrfaky/ ypjxpfel |fpb pbc iaeic~p ag jiic~pjeic ycpy je` ba|

pbjp ocj`y pa pbc `cgfefpfae ag j kcjysxc ag xfyd%

Jiic~pjeic Ycpy

Jxp}ecx cp jo iaeyf`cxc` fp hcyp pa xcojpc xfyd pa pbc gspsxc wjosc ag pbc fewcypkcep xjpbcx pbje pa pbc ^!O ag

pbc ~ayfpfae% Pbcv `f` pbfy hv iaeyf`cxfel pbc gspsxc wjosc ag pbc ~axpgaofa jy j xje`ak wjxfjhoc ae pbc ycp

ag ypjpcy ag ejpsxc jp j gspsxc `jpc% Jiiax`fel pa pbck/ pbc gfxyp ixs`c kcjysxckcep ag xfyd gax jev ~ayfpfae

|aso` hc pa ycc |bcpbcx fpy gspsxc wjosc hcoaely pa pbc yshycp agjiic~pjhoc xfyd/ jy `cif`c` hv j ~cxyae

fe+ibjxlc ag kjejlfel xfyd gax pbjp ~ayfpfae% Ysib j ~cxyae iaso` hc jipfel fe pbc ij~jifpv ag=

:% J Xclsojpax/ |ba bjy pa pjdc fepa jiiasep pbc segjwaxjhoc ypjpcy |bce jooa|fel j xfydv ~ayfpfae

|bfib kjv `xj| ae pbc xcyasxicy ag pbc lawcxekcep/ gax crjk~oc jy j lsjxjepax ag pbc ojyp xcyaxp%

8% Je Cribjelcy Iocjxfel Gfxk/ |bfib bjy pa kjdc laa` ae pbc ~xakfyc pa joo ~jxpfcy/ ag

pxjeyjipfaey hcfel ycisxcov iak~ocpc`%

9% Je Fewcypkcep Kjejlcx/ |ba dea|y pbjp bfy gfxk bjy hjyfijoov lfwce pa fpy pxj`cxy je crfp a~pfae

|bcxc pbc ypxfdc ~xfic iaeyfypy ae hcfel gfxc` fe pbc cwcep ag hfl pxj`fel oayycy ae aecy

~ayfpfae%

Aeic pbcv bj` pbc iaeic~p ag jiic~pjhoc xfyd/ pbcv `cgfec pbc jiic~pjeic ycpjy pbc ycp ag joo jiic~pjhoc

gspsxc ecp |axpb gax pbc ~axpgaofa% Joo xfydy pbjp jxc sejiic~pjhoc ax ~ayfpfaey pbjp bjwc je sejiic~pjhoc


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gspsxc ecp |axpb ijeeap eap hc bco` fe pbcfx isxxcep gaxk% Aec xckc`v fy pa jopcx pbc ~ayfpfae% Jeapbcx aec

fy pa oaad gax yakc iakkaeov jiic~pc` feypxskcepy |bfib/ |bce j``c` pa pbc isxxcep ~ayfpfaey/ kjdcy fpy

gspsxc wjosc hciakc jiic~pjhoc pa pbc xclsojpaxy! xfyd kjejlcxy% Pbc isxxcep iayp ag lcppfel ceaslb ag

pbfy ax pbcyc feypxskcep"y& ybaso` hc laa` fe`fijpax ag pbc xfyd jyyaifjpc` |fpb pbc fefpfjo sejiic~pjhoc~ayfpfae%

Kcjysxc ag Xfyd

Hjyc` ae jiic~pjeic ycp/ Jxp}ecx cp jo `cgfec j kcjysxc ag xfyd " &% gax j xfydv ~ayfpfae jy pbc kfefksk

jkasep ag crpxj ijyb pbjp bjy pa hc j``c` pa pbc xfydv ~ayfpfae je` fewcypc` ~xs`cepov fe yakc xcgcxceic

jyycp pa kjdc pbc xfydv ~ayfpfae hc jiic~pjhoc% Fg " &% fy ecljpfwc/ fpy ecljpfwfpv ije hc fepcx~xcpc` jy pbc

kjrfksk jkasep pbjp ije hc yjgcov |fpb`xj|e/ je` ypfoo ocjwc pbc ~ayfpfae jiic~pjhoc%

Pa cr~xcyy pbc xfyd kcjysxc " &% kjpbckjpfijoov/ ocp hc pbc ycp ag gspsxc ypjpcy ag ejpsxc "jyyskc`

gfefpc&% Gax cjib cockcep ag / pbcxc fy je jyyaifjpc` ecp |axpb ag pbc ~axpgaofa/ j xje`ak wjxfjhoc

`ceapc` hv R% Ijoo L jy pbc ycp ag joo xfydy f%c% pbc ycp ag joo xcjo wjosc` gseipfaey ae % Yfeic fy

jyyskc` pa hc gfefpc/ L ije hc f`cepfgfc` |fpbe

/ |bcxc e;ijx`" &%

@cgfefpfae= J kcjysxc ag xfyd/ " &% / fy j kj~~fel gxak L fepa

Pbc jhawc `cgfefpfae yfk~ov kcjey lfwfel j xcjo eskhcx wjosc pa zsjepfgv pbc ycp ag joo xfydy gjic` hv pbc

~axpgaofa% Bjwfel j `cgfefpfae gax j kcjysxc ag xfyd |jy pbc gfxyp ypc~ gax Jxp}ecx cp jo% Pbcv joya ~xa~ayc`

~xa~cxpfcy pbjp ybaso` hc yjpfygfc` hv ysib j xfyd kcjysxc ya jy pa hc jiic~pjhoc jy j xcjofypfi kcjysxc

gxak j ~xjipfijo ~afep ag wfc|% Pbcv ijooc` pbcyc ~xa~cxpfcy pbc Jrfaky ag Iabcxceiv je` jev xfyd

kcjysxc yjpfygvfel pbcyc jrfaky/ j Iabcxcep Xfyd Kcjysxc%

Jrfaky ag Iabcxceiv

:% Kaeapaefifpv= Gax joo Rje` LV |fpb VR / |c bjwc " & " &RV %


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Kaeapaefifpv kcjey pbjp xjeàk ijyb goa|y ax gspsxc wjosc Vpbjp fy jo|jvy lxcjpcx pbje Rybaso`

bjwc j oa|cx xfyd= pbfy kjdcy yceyc/ hcijsyc fp kcjey pbjp ocyy bjy pa hc j``c` pa Vpbje pa Rpa

kjdc fp jiic~pjhoc/ je` pbc jkasep pa hc j``c` fy pbc xfyd kcjysxc%

8% Pxjeyojpfae Fewjxfjeic= Gax joo LR je` xcjo eskhcx e/ " & " & eReR ;$

Pbfy jrfak ceysxcy pbjp gax cjib R/ " &" & >;$ RR / |bfib yjvy fg |c j`` j ijyb jkasep czsjo pa

&"R / pbc xfyd kcjysxc jyyaifjpc |fpb R/ pbce pbc xfyd ag pbc ~axpgaofa fy >% Pbfy czsjofpv bjy j

ejpsxjo fepcx~xcpjpfae fe pcxky ag jiic~pjeic ycp jyyaifjpc` |fpb / je` fy crjipov |bjp pbc `cgfefpfae

ag j xfyd kcjysxc fy%

9% Yshj``fpfwfpv= Gax joo Rje` LV / " & " & " &VRVR $$ %

Pbc jrfak yjvy/ j kcxlcx àcy eap ixcjpc xfyd je` ae pbc iaepxjxv/ xfyd ybaso` iakc à|e `sc pa

pbc hcecgfpy ag `fwcxyfgfijpfae% J gc| crjk~ocy hcoa| yba|y |bv pbfy fy xcljx`c` pa hc pbc kayp

fk~axpjep jrfak pa hc y~cifgfc` hv Jxp}ecx cp jo je` |bv jev xfyd kcjysxc eap yjpfygvfel pbfy ~xa~cxpv

ybaso` hc xcljx`c` |fpb ysy~fifae%

Jev eae+yshj``fpfwc xfyd kcjysxcy |foo pck~p pxj`cxy ae je axljef}c` cribjelc pa hxcjd s~ pbcfxjiiasepy/ |fpb yc~jxjpc jiiasepy gax yc~jxjpc xfydy/ fe ax`cx pa xc`sic kjxlfe xczsfxckcepy% Pbfy

fy j iaeicxe gax pbc cribjelc yfeic pbc kjxlfe xczsfxckcepy ae pbc yc~jxjpc jiiasepy |foo ea

oaelcx iawcx pbc iakhfec` xfydy/ je` ocjwc pbc cribjelc fpycog cr~ayc` pa ~ayyfhoc oayycy%

Fg xclsojpaxy syc eae+yshj``fpfwc xfyd kcjysxcy pa ycp ij~fpjo xczsfxckcepy/ pbce j gfejeifjo gfxk

kflbp hc pck~pc` pa hxcjd fpycog pa xc`sic fpy xclsojpaxv ij~fpjo xczsfxckcepy/ hcijsyc pbc ysk ag

pbc ij~fpjo xczsfxckcepy ag pbc ykjoocx sefpy |aso` hc ocyy pbje pbc ij~fpjo xczsfxckcep ag pbc gfxk

jy j |baoc%

Fg xfydy jxc yshj``fpfwc/ j``fel xfydy palcpbcx |aso` lfwc sy je awcx+cypfkjpc ag iakhfec` xfyd/

je` pbfy kcjey pbjp |c ije syc ysk ag xfydy jy j iaeycxwjpfwc cypfkjpc ag iakhfec` xfyd% Pbfy

gjifofpjpcy `cicepxjof}c` `cifyfae kjdfel |fpbfe j gfxk% Fg xfydy jxc eap yshj``fpfwc/ j``fel pbck

palcpbcx lfwcy sy je se`cxcypfkjpc ag pbc iakhfec` xfydy/ |bfib kjdcy ysk ag xfydy feiaxxcip je`

pbcxcgaxc cggcipfwcov sycocyy jy j hjid ag pbc cewcoa~c kcjysxc%


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0% âyfpfwc Bakalcecfpv= Gax joo LR je` >5e / " & " &ReeR ; %

Pbc yshj``fpfwfpv jrfak yjvy pbjp " & " & " &ReeRRRR ;$$$ %%% / hsp fg |c pbfed fe

pcxky ag ofzsf`fpv iaeicxey |bcxc/ jy pbc ~ayfpfae yf}c hciakcy hfllcx pbc xfyd feixcjycy ax

" & " & " &ReeRRRR ;$$$ %%% % Iakhfefel pbcyc p|a xcysopy lfwcy sy pbc âyfpfwc

Bakalcecfpv Jrfak%

\fpb pbcyc gasx ~xfkjxv jrfaky/ Jxp}ecx cp jo/ ~sp à|e pbc lxase`+|axd gax gspsxc xcycjxib fepa

kcjysxcy ag gfejeifjo xfydy% Fe pbc ecrp ycipfae/ |c |foo `fyisyy pbc kayp iakkae xfyd kcjysxc syc` fe pbc

fe`sypxv/ pbc Wjosc+jp+Xfyd "WjX&% WjX yjpfygfcy joo ag pbc jhawc jrfaky cric~p yshj``fpfwfpv/ hsp fpy cjyc

ag syc je` fepcx~xcpjpfae kjdcy fp gjwaxfpc jkael kjejlckcep%


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y pa kcjysxc xfyd cr~aysxc pa pbcfx pxj`fel ~axpgaofay% Fe pbc

cjxov 6>y wjxfasy hjedy ypjxpc` jà~pfel WjX jy j dcv iak~aecep ag kjejlckcep ag kjxdcp xfyd% Pbc

gfejo haayp ijkc |bce pbc Hjyco Iakkfppcc ae Hjedfel Ys~cxwfyfae ibayc WjX jy je fepcxejpfaejo

ypje`jx` gax crpcxejo xclsojpaxv ~sx~ayc% Fe xcicep vcjxy/ pbc syc ag WjX gax xfyd kjejlckcep je` ij~fpjo

jooaijpfae bjy hcce syc` feixcjyfelov hv bc`lc gse`y/ pxj`cxy je` iak~jefcy gax xfyd kcjysxckcep%

Yfk~ov ~sp WjX fy pbc |axyp oayy awcx j pjxlcp baxf}ae |fpb j lfwce ocwco ag pjxlcp ~xahjhfofpv% Fp jfky

pa jey|cx pbc zscypfae= Ba| ksib ije pbc ~axpgaofa oayc |fpb R# ~xahjhfofpv awcx j ~xc+ycp baxf}ae% Pbc

xcjyae gax pbc ~a~sojxfpv ag WjX fy pbjp fp yskkjxf}cy pbc cepfxc xfyd fepa aec àoojx eskhcx% Pbfy fy cjyv

pa se`cxypje` gax joo ocwcoy ag pbc kjejlckcep je` jip ae jiiax`felov%

Gfxyp ocp sy ~sp pbc `cgfefpfae ag WjX fe j kaxc gaxkjo gxjkc+|axd% Rfy pbc xjeàk wjxfjhoc jyyaifjpc`

|fpb pbc gspsxc ecp |axpb ag asx isxxcep ~axpgaofa% Pbc isxxcep wjosc ag pbc ~axpgaofa fy >r % Gxak j

kjpbckjpfijo ~afep ag wfc|/ WjX fy msyp j zsjepfoc ag pbc `fypxfhspfae ag pbc wjxfjhocR% @cgfec

" & T [t { ;; rR^rRzr =feg

Jy pbc + zsjepfoc ag R/

WjX fy pbc jhyaospc wjosc ag pbc |axyp oayy eap pa hc cricc`c` |fpb j ~xahjhfofpv ag jp ocjyp : % Fpy

gaxkjo `cgfefpfae fy

; :> rrWjX


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15/73

6

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16/73

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17/73

::

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18/73

:8

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19/73

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20/73

:0

Y~cipxjo Xfyd Kcjysxcy

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21/73

:3

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22/73

:7

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23/73

::

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26/73

8>

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Fe pbfy gaxksoj :%73 hcoa| pbc kcje lfwcy 3 # ocwco ax pbc 63# WjX je` 8%99 lfwcy pbc : # ocwco ax

66# WjX%


27/73

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Gflsxc < @copj+Eaxkjo WjX

J`wjepjlcy

Pbc @copj+Eaxkjo kcpba` fy cjyv pa fk~ockcep je` iak~spjpfaejoov wcxv gjyp% Pbfy fy hcijsyc joo ycisxfpv

wjosjpfaey jxc xc~ojic` hv pbcfx ofecjx j~~xarfkjpfaey/ |bfib jxc cjyfov ~cxgaxkc` jy kjpxfr

ksopf~ofijpfaey% Fe kayp yfpsjpfaey |bcxc ~axpgaofa iaeypfpscepy jxc ofecjx gseipfaey ag pbcfx se`cx ofxc pbc

`copj+eaxkjo kcpba` ~xawf`cy je j`czsjpc kcjysxckcep ag kjxdcp xfydy%

@fyj`wjepjlcy

Pbc @copj+Eaxkjo kcpba` fy hjyc` ae je jyysk~pfae ag eaxkjo `fypxfhspfae gax pbc se`cxovfel xfyd gjipax%

Fp bjy hcce |coo `aiskcepc` pbjp gfejeifjo wjxfjhocy bjwc gjp pjfoy f%c% pbcxc fy yflefgfijep jkasep ag

dsxpayfy fe pbc `fypxfhspfae ag xfyd gjipaxy kjdfel crpxckc cwcepy ksib kaxc ofdcov pbje |bjp j eaxkjo

`fypxfhspfae |foo ysllcyp% Pbcyc gjp pjfoy jxc ~jxpfisojxov |axxfyakc ~xcifycov hcijsyc WjX jppck~py pa

ij~psxc pbc hcbjwfax ag pbc ~axpgaofa xcpsxe fe pbc ocgp pjfo% Fe pbfy yfpsjpfae/ j ka`co hjyc` ae j eaxkjo

`fypxfhspfae |aso` se`cxcypfkjpc pbc ~xa~axpfae ag aspofcxy je` bceic pbc pxsc Wjosc+jp+Xfyd% Jeapbcx

Bfypaxfijo @jpj

Waojpfofpv/iaxxcojpfae ka`co

Ycisxfpfcy @copjKa`co

Cypfkjpc` gspsxcwaojpfofpfcy je`

iaxxcojpfaey

@copj Wjosjpfae

Cypfkjpc` Wjoscibjelcy

@copj ^ayfpfaey


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fyysc |fpb pbc @copj+Eaxkjo kcpba` fy ojid ag ys~~axp gax eaeofecjx feypxskcepy/ ysib jy a~pfaey ax

kaxpljlcy% Se`cx pbc `copj @copj+Eaxkjo/ a~pfaey ~ayfpfaey jxc xc~xcycepc` hv pbcfx `copjy xcojpfwc pa

pbc se`cxovfel jyycp% Bceic pbc @copj+Eaxkjo fy eap ij~jhoc ag ij~psxfel cggcipy ysib jy jyvkkcpxfi

xcpsxe `fypxfhspfaey ag a~pfaey ax pbc jyyaifjpc` iaewcrfpv ax xcpsxey%

Bfypaxfijo Yfksojpfae Kcpba`

Pbc ecrp je` kjvhc pbc kayp iakkaeov syc` WjX kcpba` fy pbc Bfypaxfijo Kcpba`% Fp fy hjyc` ae pbc

jyysk~pfae pbjp bfypaxfijo kawckcepy ag pbc xfyd gjipaxy lfwcy j laa` `cyixf~pfae ae ba| ksib pbc xfyd

gjipax fy ofdcov pa kawc fe pbc gspsxc% Pbc ocelpb ag bfypaxfijo `jpj pa iaeyf`cx `c~ce`y ae pbc feypxskcepy

pbjp iak~xfyc pbc ~axpgaofa% Gax crjk~oc/ oaadfel jp oael pcxk bfypaxfijo czsfpv kawcy gax j iak~jev pbjp

fy fe kcxlcx pjody fy lafel pa bjwc ahwfasy `jpj fyyscy% Oael `jpj bfypaxv |foo lcecxjoov ocj` pa gjipax

xcpsxey pbjp jxc eap xcocwjep fe pbc isxxcep ciaeakfi cewfxaekcep% Ae pbc apbcx bje`/ j ybaxp |fe`a| |foo

eap ij~psxc ceaslb kjxdcp wjxfjpfaey pa lfwc xahsyp WjX eskhcxy% Bceic pbc `cifyfae gax pbc ocelpb ag

bfypaxv pa syc fy wcxv ixfpfijo je` jy ksib j zsjofpjpfwc `cifyfae jy j zsjepfpjpfwc aec% Fe kayp ijycy

jev|bcxc gxak p|a pa gasx vcjxy ag bfypaxv fy iaeyf`cxc` xcjyaejhoc%

Pbc ecrp ypc~ pa j~~xarfkjpc pbc gspsxc `fypxfhspfae ag pbc ~axpgaofa fewaowcy cwjosjpfel joo pbc ~ayfpfaesyfel gjipax xcpsxey iaxxcy~ae`fel pa cjib ag pbc bfypaxfijo ~afepy% Pbc wjosjpfae ag ~ayfpfaey fy sysjoov

`aec syfel j gsoo wjosjpfae ka`co yfeic pbcxc fy ea jyysk~pfae ae pbc mafep `fypxfhspfae ag gjipax xcpsxey%

Agpce fp fy cjyfcx pa ijoisojpc WjX hv iaewcxpfel pbfy `fypxfhspfae fepa pbc `fypxfhspfae ag ibjelc fe

~axpgaofa wjosc hv yshpxjipfel pbc ypjxpfel ~axpgaofa wjosc% Yakc ag pbc xcpsxey |foo ocj` pa ~xagfp eskhcxy

|bfoc apbcxy |foo ocj` pa oayycy% Pbc WjX+63 eskhcx fy ahpjfec` hv ax`cxfel pbcxc ^!O eskhcxy fe

`cixcjyfel ax`cx je` ibaayfel pbc 3pb ~cxicepfoc gxak pbc happak/ xc~xcycepfel pbc kjrfksk oayy |fpb

63# iaegf`ceic% Pa lcp pbc WjX+66 eskhcx/ pbc :yp ~cxicepfoc gxak pbc happak fy ibayce%


29/73

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Gflsxc 2 Bfypaxfijo WjX

J`wjepjlcy

Pbc kjfe j`wjepjlc ag bfypaxfijo yfksojpfae fy pbjp fp kjdcy ea jyysk~pfaey jhasp xfyd gjipax xcpsxey

hcfel `xj|e gxak j ~jxpfisojx `fypxfhspfae% Pbcxcgaxc/ pbfy kcpbaàoalv fy iaeyfypcep |fpb pbc xfyd gjipax

ibjelcy hcfel gxak jev `fypxfhspfae% Jeapbcx fk~axpjep j`wjepjlc fy pbjp bfypaxfijo yfksojpfae àcy eap

fewaowc pbc cypfkjpfae ag jev ypjpfypfijo ~jxjkcpcxy/ ysib jy wjxfjeic ax iawjxfjeic/ je` fy iaeyczscepov

crck~p gxak fecwfpjhoc cypfkjpfae cxxaxy% Fp fy joya j kcpbaàoalv pbjp fy cjyv pa cr~ojfe je` `cgce` pa j

eae+pcibefijo je` fk~axpjep js`fceic/ ysib jy j iax~axjpc hajx` ag `fxcipaxy%

@fyj`wjepjlcy

Pbc kayp ahwfasy `fyj`wjepjlc fy pbjp bfypaxfijo yfksojpfae/ fe fpy ~sxcyp gaxk/ ije hc wcxv `fggfisop pa

jiiak~ofyb hcijsyc fp xczsfxcy `jpj ae joo xfyd gjipaxy pa hc jwjfojhoc awcx j xcjyaejhov oael bfypaxfijo

~cxfa` fe ax`cx pa lfwc j laa` xc~xcycepjpfae ag |bjp kflbp bj~~ce fe pbc gspsxc% Jeapbcx `fyj`wjepjlc fy

pbjp bfypaxfijo yfksojpfae àcy eap fewaowc jev `fypxfhspfaejo jyysk~pfaey4 pbc yicejxfay pbjp jxc syc` fe

iak~spfel WjX jxc ofkfpc` pa pbayc pbjp aiisxxc` fe pbc bfypaxfijo yjk~oc%

Bfypaxfijo Xcpsxey

Ycisxfpfcy Ka`co Gsoo Wjosjpfae

@fypxfhspfae agWjoscy

âxpgaofa âyfpfaey


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Kaepc Ijxoa Yfksojpfae kcpba`

Pbc Kaepc Ijxoa yfksojpfae fy iaeyf`cxc` pbc kayp ~a|cxgso hsp pbc kayp iak~ocr ag WjX

kcpbaàoalfcy% Pbc ~a|cx ag pbfy kcpba` ofcy fe fpy gocrfhfofpv pa pjdc fepa jiiasep joo eae+ofecjxfpfcy ag

pbc ~axpgaofa wjosc |fpb xcy~cip pa fpy se`cxovfel xfyd gjipaxy/ je` pa feiax~axjpc joo `cyfxjhoc `fypxfhspfaejo

~xa~cxpfcy%

Pbc Kaepc Ijxoa kcpba` |axdy hv lcecxjpfel pbasyje`y ag bv~apbcpfijo gjipax xcpsxey gax pbc bao`fel

~cxfa`% Pbcyc xcpsxey jxc lcecxjpc` hv syfel xjeàk eskhcx lcecxjpaxy pa ~soo asp xcjof}jpfaey gxak j

~xc+`cif`c` mafep ~xahjhfofpv ypxsipsxc gax joo pbc xcpsxe gjipaxy% Aeic pbcyc xcpsxey bjwc hcce lcecxjpc`/

pbc Kaepc Ijxoa kcpba` |axdy crjipov ofdc pbc bfypaxfijo WjX kcpba` |bcxc pbc ~axpgaofa wjosc ~xagfp

je` oayy jxc ijoisojpc` gax cjib yfksojpfae xcysop je` pbc `fypxfhspfae ag pbcyc ^!O eskhcxy fy iaeypxsipc`%

Ag iasxyc/ fe pbc Kaepc Ijxoa kcpba` pbfy xcpsxe `fypxfhspfae fy je jepfif~jpc` bv~apbcpfijo `fypxfhspfae

|bcxcjy fe pbc bfypaxfijo yfksojpfae/ pbc `fypxfhspfae fy hjyc` ae jipsjo gjipax xcpsxey%

Gflsxc 6 Kaepc Ijxoa WjX

Bfypaxfijo!Fk~ofc`@jpj

Ka`co ^jxjkcpcxy YpaibjypfiKa`co

Ycisxfpfcy Ka`co

Yfksojpc` XfydGjipaxy

Gsoo Wjosjpfae

@fypxfhspfae agWjoscy

âxpgaofa âyfpfaey


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J`wjepjlcy

Jy joxcj`v kcepfaec`/ pbc kjfe jppxjipfae ag pbc Kaepc Ijxoa kcpba` fy fpy fkkceyc ~a|cx jy gjx jy

ka`cofel xcpsxey gxak jev mafep `fypxfhspfae gxjkc|axd% Gc| iakkae `fypxfhspfaejo ~xa~cxpfcy pbjp jxc

syc` jxc gjp pjfoc` `fypxfhspfaey je` `fypxfhspfaey |fpb pfkc wjxvfel waojpfofpfcy% @sc pa pbfy/ Kaepc Ijxoa

yfksojpfaey ije hc crpce`c` pa j~~ov awcx oaelcx bao`fel ~cxfa`y/ kjdfel fp ~ayyfhoc pa syc pbcyc

pcibefzscy gax kcjysxfel ixc`fp xfyd%

@fyj`wjepjlcy

Pbc ~a|cx ag pbc Kaepc Ijxoa yfksojpfaey fy joya fpy hfl `xj|hjid% Pa lcp xcjyaejhoc ka`coy/ aec bjy pa

iakc s~ |fpb laa` mafep `fypxfhspfae gseipfaey gax joo pbc se`cxovfel xfyd gjipaxy% Pbfy kcjey cjib kjxdcpwjxfjhoc bjy pa hc ka`coc` jiiax`fel pa je cypfkjpc` `fypxfhspfae je` pbc xcojpfaeybf~y hcp|cce

`fypxfhspfaey "ysib jy iaxxcojpfae ax ocyy ahwfasy eae+ofecjx xcojpfaeybf~y& bjy pa hc cypjhofybc`% Syfel pbc

Kaepc Ijxoa j~~xajib kcjey aec fy iakkfppc` pa pbc syc ag ysib `fypxfhspfaey je` pbc cypfkjpfaey aec

kjdcy% Pbcyc `fypxfhspfaey ije hciakc asp`jpc` je` fej~~xa~xfjpc% Pa hsfo` je` dcc~ isxxcep j Kaepc

Ijxoa xfyd kjejlckcep yvypck xczsfxcy iaepfesjo xc+cypfkjpfae/ j laa` xcycxwc ag jejovpfi je` ypjpfypfijo

ydfooy/ je` eae+jspakjpfi `cifyfaey% Pbc apbcx `xj|hjid pbjp ~xcwcepy kaxc syc ag pbc Kaepc Ijxoa

kcpba` fy pbc ojxlc jkasep ag iak~spjpfaejo xcyasxicy pbjp pbfy kcpba` xczsfxcy%


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Ypxcyy Pcypfel

Ypxcyy Pcypy jxc ycp ag ~xaic`sxcy pbjp jppck~p pa ljslc pbc fk~jip ag gspsxc bv~apbcpfijo cwcepy ae pbc~axpgaofa je` jxc `cyflec` pa jey|cx pbc zscypfae= \bjp fg bj~~cey1 Pbc `fggcxcep kcjysxcy ag xfyd

`fyisyyc` pfoo ea| joo fewaowc gfe`fel pbc iak~ocpc `fypxfhspfae ag pbc gspsxc ~axpgaofa wjosc% Ypxcyy

Pcypfel fy `fggcxcep fe pbjp fp fy iaeicxec` |fpb gfe`fel j yfeloc ~afep ae pbc gspsxc ~axpgaofa `fypxfhspfae/

pbc ~afep iaxxcy~ae`fel pa j ~jxpfisojx cwcep%

Ypxcyy Pcypfel kcpba`aoalfcy bjwc crfypc` jy hjid ag pbc cewcoa~c crcxifycy gax j oael pfkc |fpb pbc

kjejlckcep ~jvfel aeov ofkfpc` jppcepfae pa pbc xcysopy% Hsp jgpcx pbc cwcepy ag :662 je` pbc hcojpc`

xcialefpfae pbjp laa` ypxcyy pcypfel kflbp bjwc bco~c` feypfpspfaey jwaf` yakc ag pbc ~jfegso oayycy/ pbcfk~axpjeic ag ypxcyy pcypfel |fpbfe fewcypkcep gfxky bjy lxa|e fe fk~axpjeic% Xcicepov/ Ypxcyy Pcypfel

gax xfyd kcjysxckcep bjy xcicfwc` ys~~axp gxak p|a yasxicy% Gxak pbc xclsojpaxv ypje`~afep pbc

Jkce`c` Hjyco Jiiax` ag :667 xczsfxcy pbjp hjedy |bfib yccd pa bjwc pbcfx ij~fpjo xczsfxckcepy hjyc`

ae pbcfx fepcxejo ka`coy ybaso` bjwc fe ~ojic j xflaxasy je` iak~xcbceyfwc ypxcyy pcypfel ~xalxjk/ je`

pbfy ~xalxjk ybaso` feios`c pcypy ag pbc ~axpgaofa jljfeyp ~jyp yflefgfijep `fypsxhjeicy% Ypxcyy pcypy bjwc

joya hcce syc` hv axljef}c` cribjelcy pa ycp pbcfx kjxlfe xczsfxckcepy/ j laa` crjk~oc ag |bfib fy pbc

Y^JE ypxcyy pcypfel yvypck syc` hv pbc Ibfijla Kcxijepfoc Cribjelc%

Pbc apbcx hjidfel xcicfwc` hv ypxcyy pcypfel |jy |bce pbc pbcaxv ag Iabcxcep Xfyd Kcjysxcy wjof`jpc`

ypxcyy pcyp xcysopy jy hcfel iabcxcep% Oayycy `sxfel ypxcyy yfpsjpfaey ije hc xcljx`c` jy pjfo `xj|fely gxak

pbc xcocwjep `fypxfhspfae gseipfae/ je` pbcfx cr~cipc` wjosc fy pbc CY jyyaifjpc` |fpb pbfy `fypxfhspfae

gseipfae% Cjxofcx |c yba|c` pbjp pbc CY fy j iabcxcep xfyd kcjysxc/ bceic pbc aspiakc ag yicejxfa

jejovyfy jxc joya iabcxcep%

^xaic`sxc

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yasxicy ag xfyd pa pbc `fggcxcep feypxskcepy fe pbc ~axpgaofa% Ypxcyy pcypy jxc pbce iae`sipc` hv ybaidfel

aec ax kaxc ag pbcyc se`cxovfel xfyd gjipaxy jiiax`fel pa cfpbcx bfypaxfijo cwcepy ax ~apcepfjo gspsxc cwcepy


33/73

8> hjyfy ~afepy/ ypaid fe`cr ibjelcy ag ~osy ax kfesy :>#/

waojpfofpv ibjelc ag ~osy je` kfesy 8>#% Ypvof}c` Yicejxfay jxc kayp agpce syc` pa ahpjfe lxj~bfijo

`cyixf~pfae ag ~axpgaofa xfyd pa aec xfyd gjipax jp j pfkc% Pbcyc jxc wcxv ~a~sojx |fpb kjejlckcep je`

pxj`cxy pa lcp j zsfid yceyc ag ~axpgaofa cr~aysxcy% Gax crjk~oc/ gflsxc :> yba|y ~axpgaofa ^!O fg pbc ypaid

kjxdcp kawcy `fggcxcep jkasep% J zsfid lojeic pcooy sy pbjp pbc ~axpgaofa fy oael czsfpv cr~aysxc je` jp

pbc yjkc pfkc |coo bc`lc` gax wcxv hfl czsfpv `a|eyf`c kawcy% Yfkfojxov gflsxc :: yba|y ^!O

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34/73

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^axpgaofa ^!O

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Pbc ofkfpjpfae ag pbfy j~~xajib fy pbjp kawfel aec gjipax jp j pfkc hciakcy sekjejlcjhoc gax ojxlc

eskhcx ag xfyd gjipaxy% Kaxcawcx yfeic pbc cggcip ag kawc fe joo gjipaxy fy eap iaeyf`cxc`/ fp hciakcy

`fggfisop pa `xj| iaeiosyfaey je` lcp pbc awcxjoo yceyc ag ~axpgaofa xfyd%

Jipsjo Bfypaxfijo Cwcepy

Fg kaxc pbje aec gjipaxy ecc` pa hc ybaidc` palcpbcx/ agpce pbcxc jxc jyysk~pfaey ae ba| pbcv kawc

palcpbcx% Xjpbcx pbje ixcjpfel jxpfgfifjo iaxxcojpfaey/ je jopcxejpc j~~xajib fy pa syc jipsjo bfypaxfijo kawcy

fe pbc xfyd gjipax% Pbfy bjy pbc j`wjepjlc ag xc`sifel jxhfpxjxfecyy je` lfwfel pbc yicejxfa icxpjfe

ixc`fhfofpv pbjp fy bjx`cx pa `fykfyy% Pbc xcysopy jxc joya ypxjflbpgax|jx` pa fepcx~xcp f%c% Fg j \axo` Pxj`c

Icepcx jppjid pv~c cwcep |cxc pa bj~~ce jljfe/ |bjp |aso` hc pbc fk~jip ae pbc cepfxc ~axpgaofa%

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ce` ag pbc cwcep gax pbc ~sx~ayc ag ijoisojpfel xfyd gjipax kawckcep% Agpce kjmax kawcy fe `fggcxcep xfyd

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iaeyf`cxjhoc yia~c pa ~ojv |fpb pbc ~jxjkcpcxy%


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@fggfisopfcy |fpb Ypxcyy Pcypfel

Jy ~afepc` asp/ ypxcyy pcypfel fy hjyc` ae ojxlc eskhcx ag `cifyfaey ysib jy ibafic ag yicejxfay/ ibafic ag

xfyd gjipaxy/ pfkc gxjkc ag yps`v je` ba| `fggcxcep xfyd gjipaxy ybaso` hc iakhfec`% Pbfy kjdcy Ypxcyy

Pcypfel wcxv yshmcipfwc/ hjyc` ae pbc ms`lkcep je` cr~cxfceic ag ~ca~oc ijxxvfel asp pbc pcyp% Pbfy fy j

ycp hjid yfeic Ypxcyy Pcypy jxc kayp agpce iae`sipc` gax yicejxfay |bfib jxc wcxv seofdcov pa bj~~ce je`

bjx` pa ~xc`fip% \bce pbc yicejxfay jxc iak~ocr fp joya hciakcy `fggfisop pa ybaxpofyp |bfib xfyd gjipax pa

iaeyf`cx%

Ypxcyy pcypfel Wy WjX

J gfejo ~afep fy pbc iak~jxfyae ag WjX |fpb Ypxcyy Pcypfel jy jopcxejpc xfyd kcjysxckcep paaoy% WjX lfwcy

sy je f`cj gxak j ~xahjhfofypfi wfc|~afep jhasp pbc `fypxfhspfae ag asx xcpsxey je` kaxc y~cifgfijoov/ pbc

iaegf`ceic ocwco |fpb |bfib |c |aep oayc kaxc pbje j icxpjfe jkasep hsp jy kcepfaec` hcgaxc/ fp gjfoy pa

lfwc sy |axyp ijyc eskhcxy hcvae` pbc WjX eskhcx% Ofypfel pbc `fggcxceicy hcp|cce pbc p|a kcjysxcy=

Kayp ag pbc WjX fk~ockcepjpfaey fe fe`sypxv jxc hjyc` ae xcicep bfypaxfijo xcpsxey% Kaxc agpce

pbje eap/ pbcyc `jpj `a eap iaepjfe jev kjmax gfejeifjo cwcep ax ixfyfy% Gax crjk~oc/ bfypaxfijo `jpj

kflbp bjwc oa| ocwcoy ag waojpfofpv gax j oael pfkc hsp pbcyc wjoscy |foo ys``ceov y~fdc s~ |bcepbcxc fy ixfyfy fe pbc kjxdcp% Ypxcyy Pcyp ae pbc apbcx bje` fy `cyflec` y~cifgfijoov pa j``xcyy pbc

iaeyczsceicy jxfyfel gxak kjmax cwcepy |bcxc pbc eaxkjo iaxxcojpfaey fe pbc kjxdcp kflbp hxcjd

`a|e%

Ypxcyy pcypy cr~ofifpov lfwc sy eskhcxy ag ba| ksib |c ije cr~cip pa oayc fe y~cifgfi yfpsjpfaey%

Fe pbfy yceyc/ Ypxcyy Pcyp fy j ejpsxjo iak~ockcep ag WjX jejovyfy% WjX lfwcy sy pbc kjrfksk

ofdcov oayy jp icxpjfe ~xahjhfofpv/ hsp lfwcy sy ea f`cj ag pbc oayy |c kflbp ysggcx fg |c cr~cxfceic

j oayy fe cricyy ag WjX% Hv iaepxjyp/ ypxcyy pcypfel ije lfwc sy j oap ag fegaxkjpfae jhasp hj`

ypjpcy hsp fy eap `cyflec` pa pcoo sy pbc ofdcofbaa` ag pbcyc oayycy% Pbc ~xaicyy ag ycppfel s~ pbc Ypxcyy Pcyp xcwcjoy jy ksib jy pbc xcysop fpycog% Fp ije bco~ f`cepfgv

kjmax iaepxfhspaxy ag xfyd jy |coo jy bf``ce yasxicy ag xfyd ysib jy ofzsf`fpv xfyd/ xfyd gxak

y~cifgfi iasepcx~jxpv `cgjsop cpi% Fp ije joya bco~ pbc gfxk f`cepfgv |bcpbcx fp ije |fpbypje` wcxv

ybaxp pcxk kjxdcp ybaidy fe j lcecxjoov laa` kjxdcp cewfxaekcep je` fg pbcv ecc` pa pjdc ~xc+

ck~pfwc jipfaey%


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Ypxcyy Pcypfel Fk~ockcepjpfae

Pbc gfejo ycipfae ag pbc xc~axp `fyisyycy pbc crjip ~xaic`sxcy syc` hv kc pa `cyfle Ypxcyy Pcyp

Yfksojpfaey gax pbc ~axpgaofay jp QQQQ% Pbc pjhoc hcoa| ofypy ~xfkjxv xfyd yasxicy gax yakc ag pbc iakkae

feypxskcep pv~cy |bfib kjdc s~ pbc `fggcxcep ~axpgaofay jp pbc gfxk%

Pjhoc : Feypxskcep Xfyd Gjipaxy

Feypxskcep Pv~c ^xfeif~jo Xfyd Gjipaxy

Se`cxovfel Y~ap^xficy

Fk~ofc`Waojpfofpv

Ixc`fpY~xcj`

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FepcxcypXjpcy

Iaewcxpfhoc Hae`y

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Yawcxcfle Hae`y

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\jxxjepy

Joo pbc Ypxcyy Pcypy pbjp bjwc hcce ixcjpc` jxc hjyc` ae bfypaxfijo cwcepy je` pbc `jpj fy ahpjfec`

~xfkjxfov gxak pbc Hoaakhcxl `jpjhjyc% Kawckcep fe cjib ag pbc xfyd gjipaxy fy yps`fc` `sxfel pbc

bfypaxfijo cwcep je` cggaxp fy kj`c pa yfksojpc pbc cggcip ag pbc cwcep ae pbc isxxcep ~axpgaofa% Pbfy fy `aec

hv j~~ovfel pbc ahycxwc` xfyd gjipax ibjelc pa joo pbc feypxskcepy fe pbc ~axpgaofa je` cypfkjpc ~xagfp ax

oayy% Gfxyp je jolaxfpbkfi awcxwfc| fy ~xawf`c` gaooa|c` hv `cpjfoc` `fyisyyfae ae ybaidfel pbc fe`fwf`sjo

xfyd gjipax%


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Jolaxfpbk gax Ypxcyy Pcypfel je` Yicejxfa Jejovyfy

:% Oaijpc cjib feypxskcep fe pbc yvypck je` xcpxfcwc pbc gaooa|fel fegaxkjpfae=

Kjxdcp iasepxv je` Isxxceiv ag pbc feypxskcep%

@jpc ag kjpsxfpv%

Pbc ojpcyp pxj`cx kjxd ~xfic%

Pbc y~ap ~xfic ag pbc se`cxovfel "Fg j~~ofijhoc&%

Pbc xclxcyyfae hcpj ag pbc se`cxovfel |fpb kjmax czsfpv je` isxxceiv fe`ficy%

Pbc vfco` isxwc gax pbc feypxskcep isxxceiv%

8% Ijofhxjpc pa Ka`co=

Ijoisojpc pbc ocwco ag fk~ofc` waojpfofpv hv syfel pbc pxj`cx kjxd je` pbc ~xfifel ka`co%

Pbfy bjy pa hc `aec gax A~pfaey/ Iaewcxpfhoc Hae`y/ Waojpfofpv je` Wjxfjeic Y|j~y%

Ijoisojpc pbc ocwco ag fk~ofc` ixc`fp y~xcj` syfel pbc pxj`cx kjxd je` ~xfifel ka`co% Pbfy

bjy pa hc `aec gax iax~axjpc hae`y/ Iaewcxpfhoc Hae`y/ I@Y%

9% J~~ov pbc Ybaidy pa pbc gaooa|fel xfyd gjipaxy jy `fipjpc` hv pbc Ypxcyy Pcypfel Ka`co=

Se`cxovfel y~ap ~xfic%

Fk~ofc` Waojpfofpv%

Ixc`fp Y~xcj`%

Vfco` Isxwc%

Pfkc pa Kjpsxfpv%

0% Yce` pbc ec| fegaxkjpfae pa pbc ~xfifel ka`co gax j gsoo xcwjosjpfae ag pbc feypxskcep se`cx pbc

ypxcyy iae`fpfae%

3% Ijoisojpc pbc ibjelc fe feypxskcep wjosc gxak ~xc+ypxcyy ocwco je` ksopf~ov hv pbc zsjepfpv fe

bje` pa ahpjfe j ~xagfp! oayy eskhcx%

7% Jllxcljpc jixayy joo feypxskcepy pa ahpjfe ecp ^!O eskhcx gax pbc Ypxcyy Pcyp%


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Kcpbaàoalv fe @cpjfo

Pbc ypxcyy pcypfel jolaxfpbk ae pbc ~xcwfasy ~jlc lfwcy je awcxwfc| ag pbc ~xaic`sxc hsp pbc jipsjo

fk~ockcepjpfae fewaowcy pjdfel ijxc ag joo pbc ykjoo `cpjfoy je` dcc~fel pxjid ag pbc jyysk~pfaey pbjp la

fepa hsfo`fel pbc pcyp% Bcxc |c `cpjfo aec hv aec joo pbc `cifyfaey pbjp bjwc pa hc pjidoc` pa iak~ocpc pbc

~xaic`sxc%

Pcypfel ^cxfa`

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xcjyae gax ibaayfel j pce `jv ~cxfa` fy pa gfopcx asp `jfov eafyv kawckcepy je` cwjosjpc pbc cggcipy ag

ybaidy pbjp ~cxyfyp gax yakc pfkc% Gax gjipaxy gax |bfib `jpj fy eap jwjfojhoc/ j ioayc yshypfpspc fy syc`%

Czsfpv Ybaidy

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iasepxv y~cifgfi ~ayfpfaey jxc ybaidc` hv j ksopf~oc pfkcy pbc ibjelc fe pbc oaijo fe`cr gax pbjp iasepxv%

Pbc ksopf~oc bcxc fy pbc xclxcyyfae iacggfifcep ag `jfov ypaid xcpsxey |fpb pbc xcpsxe gax pbc oaijo fe`cr%

Ycisxfpfcy gax |bfib xclxcyyfae hcpj bjy eap hcce ijoisojpc` gax ojid ag ~xfic bfypaxv/ j hcpj iacggfifcep ag

: fy syc`% Y~cifgfijoov/

kfxx ; / |bcxc

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; kx Kawckcep fe iasepxv fe`cr

Y~cifjo iaeyf`cxjpfae fy lfwce pa ijyb Xfyd Jxh `cjoy% Jgpcx pbc `cjo bjy hcce jeeaseic`/ pbc czsfpv ~xfic

gax pbc iak~jev hcfel jizsfxc` fy jeibaxc` ioayc pa pbc `cjo ~xfic je` jev `xa~ fe pbc fe`cr ocwco fy

cr~cipc` pa bjwc j ofkfpc` fk~jip ae pbc ypaid ~xfic% Pbc xsoc ag pbskh |c gaooa| fy pa syc j gjipax ag %83

pa `jk~ce jev fe`cr kawc fe pbc xjelc fe`cr à|e ># pa fe`cr à|e :>#% Gax pbc xjelc fe`cr à|e


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:># pa à|e :3#/ |c feixcjyc pbc gjipax pa %3/ je` gax jev fe`cr kawc à|e kaxc pbje :3#/ pbc gjipax

fy : fe`fijpfel pbc wfc| pbjp kayp ag pbc `cjoy |aso` fe pxashoc gaooa|fel ysib je cwcep%

Czsfpv Fk~ofc` Waojpfofpv Ybaidy

Pa kcjysxc ba| pbc czsfpv fk~ofc` waojpfofpfcy fe `fggcxcep iasepxfcy hcbjwc`/ pbc ibjelc fe pbc fk~ofc`

waoy gax iasepxv y~cifgfi czsfpv fe`ficy fy iaeyf`cxc`% Pbcyc ybfgpy jxc ahpjfec` gxak p|a yasxicy% Gax SY/

pbc ~cxicepjlc ibjelc fe pbc WFR "Waojpfofpv& fe`cr fy syc` |bfoc gax pbc apbcx iasepxfcy pbc ibjelc fe pbc

Hoaakhcxl Ijoo Bfypaxfijo Fk~ofc` Waojpfofpv fy pjdce% Pbcyc eskhcxy xcgocip pbc fk~ofc` waojpfofpv gax

ioayc pa Jp+pbc+kaecv A~pfaey |fpb aec kaepb pa kjpsxfpv%

Aeic pbc ybfgpy fe fk~ofc` waojpfofpv gax czsfpv fe`ficy bjy hcce ijoisojpc`/ j kcpbaàoalv pa ybaid pbc

waoy gax fe`fwf`sjo ~ayfpfaey bjy pa hc `cwfyc`% Aec j~~xajib iaso` hc yfkfojx pa czsfpv ~ayfpfaey f%c% syc j

gjipax pa j`msyp fe`cr wao kawcy pa ahpjfe fe`fwf`sjo czsfpv wao kawcy% Pbc gjipax fe pbfy ijyc ije hc pbc

xjpfa ag pbc bfypaxfi waojpfofpv gax pbc fe`fwf`sjo iak~jev ypaid xcpsxey |fpb xcy~cip pa pbc bfypaxfi

waojpfofpv ag pbc oaijo iasepxv czsfpv fe`cr "waojpfofpv xjpfa&%

kf ; / |bcxc

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; Xjpfa ag fe`fwf`sjo czsfpv fk~ofc` wao kawc pa fe`cr fk~ofc` wao kawc

; k Kawckcep fe iasepv czsfpv fe`cr fk~ofc` waojpfofpv

Pbcxc |cxc j ias~oc ag `xj|hjidy ag syfel pbc waojpfofpv xjpfa/ gfxypov asx yicejxfa celfec aeov jooa|y sy

pa syc aec ka`fgfcx jp j pfkc je` syfel pbc waojpfofpv xjpfa kcjep |c iaso` eap gjipax fe j pfkc pa kjpsxfpv

iae`fpfae% Eap hcfel jhoc pa gjipax fe pbfy iae`fpfae kcjep pbjp pbc waojpfofpv gax joo a~pfaey gxak j kaepb

asp pa gfwc vcjxy asp |jy ybaidc` hv pbc yjkc jkasep% J yciae` iaeicxe jljfeyp syfel pbc waojpfofpv xjpfa

wjosc |jy pbjp pbcyc wjoscy jxc iak~spc` syfel `jpj gax xclsojx gfejeifjo iae`fpfaey je` pbc cepfxc f`cj

ag ypxcyy pcypfel fy pa ij~psxc pbc cggcipy |bce kayp ag pbc pxj`fpfaejo xcojpfaeybf~y hxcjd à|e% @ckje`

gax fe`cr a~pfaey/ gax pbc ~sx~ayc ag ~axpgaofa feysxjeic/ yajx `sxfel ypxcyy iae`fpfaey kjdfel pbck

cr~ceyfwc iak~jxc` pa yfeloc ejkc a~pfaey% Pbfy ijsycy hfllcx y~fdcy fe pbc fk~ofc` wao gax czsfpv

fe`ficy fe iak~jxfyae pa fe`fwf`sjo iak~jefcy% Jeapbcx ~afep jljfeyp pbc waojpfofpv xjpfae j~~xajib fy pbjp

fe`fwf`sjo a~pfaey/ |bfib joxcj`v bjwc bflbcx fk~ofc` waojpfofpfcy/ |foo eap hc cr~cipc` pa xfyc ksib kaxc

ae j ~cxicepjlc pcxk jy iak~jxc` pa pbc fe`cr% Pbfy fy pbc yjkc cggcip pbjp fy ycce fe ixc`fp y~xcj`y% Gax


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msed hae`y/ |bfib joxcj`v bjwc wcxv bflb y~xcj`y/ pbcxc fy eap ksib xaak gax ixc`fpy pa xfyc fe ~cxicepjlc

pcxky jy iak~jxc` pa pbayc hae`y |bfib bjwc bflb ixc`fp xjpfel%

Pa awcxiakc pbc ofkfpjpfaey kcepfaec` jhawc/ pbc wjosc pbjp fy iak~spc` gax pbc fe`cr fy syc` |fpbaspjev j`msypkcep gjipax pa ybaid pbc fe`fwf`sjo ejkc waoy% \c ypfoo syc j pfkc pa kjpsxfpv ka`fgfcx pa

`jk~ce pbc wao jy pbc kjpsxfpv ag a~pfaey je` iaewcxpfhoc hae`y feixcjyc% Pbfy ka`fgfcx pjdcy pbc 9> `jv

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hv j yzsjxc xaap ag pfkc gjipax% Fg pbc 9> `jv a~pfae yccy j :# ibjelc fe fk~ofc`/ pbc ibjelc gax 7> je` 6>

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Iax~axjpc je` Yawcxcfle Ixc`fp Ybaidy

Pbc pbfx` fk~axpjep gjipax jgpcx czsfpv je` fk~ofc` waojpfofpv fy pbc ybfgp fe ixc`fp y~xcj`y% Pjdfel fepa

iaeyf`cxjpfae pbc ofkfpjpfaey ag pbc yfksojpfae celfec je` `jpj jwjfojhfofpv/ aeov ~jxjooco kawcy fe pbc

ixc`fp y~xcj` isxwc fy iaeyf`cxc` je` pbc yjkc ybfgp fy j~~ofc` pa joo ixc`fp ~ayfpfaey fxxcy~cipfwc ag xjpfel

je` kjpsxfpv% Pbc gaooa|fel yasxicy jxc syc` jy ~xarv gax pbc ybfgp fe ixc`fp gax `fggcxcep xclfaey%

SY= Kaxlje Ypjeocv Ij~fpjo Fepcxejpfaejo "KYIF& Csxa`aoojx Iax~axjpc Ixc`fp 9 pa 3 vcjxy Y~xcj`%

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Lawcxekcep Hae` Vfco` Ybaidy

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pa iak~spc ybfgpy fe pbc pxcjysxv xjpcy gax `fggcxcep iasepxfcy% Pbcyc isxwcy jxc ~xawf`c` gax `fggcxcep

iasepxfcy je` `fggcxcep kjpsxfpfcy% Gax asx pcypy/ pbc gfwc vcjx xjpc fy syc` je` pbc vfco` isxwc fy ybfgpc` fe

~jxjooco%

Iakka`fpv Cr~aysxc je` Waojpfofpv Ybaidy

Yfksojpfel ybaidy pa iakka`fpv ~ayfpfaey fy `fggfisop `sc pa ~xcyceic ag eskcxasy pv~cy ag iakka`fpv

iaepxjipy ~osy pbc j``c` iak~ocrfpv ag oaijo ys~~ov+`ckje` je` ycjyaejofpv iae`fpfaey% Asx yicejxfa

yfksojpfae sycy pbc ybfgpy fe pbc ~xfic je` waojpfofpfcy fk~ofc` hv pbc Lcecxfi Gspsxcy iaepxjipy ~xawf`c`

hv Hoaakhcxl% Syc ag pbcyc gspsxcy iaepxjip gax `fggcxcep kjpsxfpfcy bco~y sy yfksojpc pbc ybaid pa pbc

gax|jx` isxwc% Gax asx yfksojpfaey/ iaepxjipy s~ pa p|a vcjxy asp jxc syc`% Iakka`fpfcy gax |bfib pbc

jwjfojhoc iaepxjipy jxc gax ocyy pbje p|a vcjxy asp/ pbc ibjelc fe cr~aysxc je` waojpfofpv gax pbc ojyp kaepb

|bcxc |c bjwc `jpj fy crpxj~aojpc` pfoo kaepb 80% Pbc pjhoc hcoa| ofypy pbc Lcecxfi Gspsxcy iaepxjip%


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Pjhoc 9 Iakka`fpv Iae`fpfaey

Lcecxfi Gspsxcy Iaepxjip Hoaakhcxl Yvkhao

Oflbp Y|ccp Ixs`c Afo IO: IO80

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Bcjp Afo BA: BA80

Lao` LI: LI:6

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kawcy fe jyycp ~xficy je` xjpcy/ |c kawc pbc ycppoc `jpc ag joo pbc iaepxjipy s~ hv gasxpcce `jvy "p|a

|ccdy&% Gax iaepxjipy pbjp cr~fxc |fpbfe gasxpcce `jvy/ pbc ycppoc `jpc fy ycp pa aec `jv hcgaxc `jpc ag

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T0[ Jicxhf/ I%/ Y~cipxjo kcjysxcy ag xfyd= j iabcxcep xc~xcycepjpfae ag yshmcipfwc xfyd jwcxyfae/ Masxejo ag

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::>76%


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J~~ce`fr F Bfypaxfi Ypxcyy Cwcep Crjk~ocy

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syc` pa lcecxjpc pbc Ypxcyy Pcyp xcysopy%

Aipahcx :62< Ixjyb

^xfax pa pbc hfl ixjyb ag :62


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Measurement of Risk - Theory and Practice