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MED-Impact
Decision-support instrument to promote renewable energy
investments in the Mediterranean
www.med-impact.com
MED-ImpactPage 2
Project’s backgroundProject’s background
Institutional background
• Funded by the FGEF (French Global Environmental Facility)
• Support from AFD, French DG-Treasury and French DG-Energy & Climate
• Implemented by ADETEF – Assistance Technique France
Context
• French contribution to the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP)
Project’s vision
• Development of the MED-IMPACT tool: a generic comparative
methodology for MED countries to evaluate the costs and benefits
between renewable energies and conventional energies
MED-ImpactPage 3
Objectives and approachObjectives and approach
A decision-making tool for public and private decision makers
Objectives:• Highlight externalities (costs and benefits) induced by the development
of RE on:- the power system (production & transmission)- macro- and socio-economic parameters - financial leverages allowing a better competitiveness of RE
projects
Approach:• Bottom-up approach: « Portfolio of RE projects by 2020 » as main input
• Taking into account 4 technologies : Wind, PV, CSP and CPV
• Developed for 4 countries : Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan
• Location of Projects’ sites on a map
MED-ImpactPage 4
3 Work packages3 Work packages
• Work package 1 - Impacts of RE integration on the power system
• Work package 2 - Impacts of RE on socio- and macro-economic parameters
• Work package 3 - Financial structuring + integration of RE externalities
MED-ImpactPage 5
WP 1 - impacts on the power systemWP 1 - impacts on the power system
Production systemProduction system
Evaluate the substitution of conventional capacity units by RE
Impact on production capacity
Impact on fuel consumption (base units and back-up/peak units)
Transportation systemTransportation system
Evaluate the connection costs for RE and conventional units
Estimated costs of grid reinforcement according to the RE integration rate
MED-ImpactPage 6
WP 2 - Macro and socio impacts WP 2 - Macro and socio impacts
Impacts on Hydrocarbon trade balanceImpacts on Hydrocarbon trade balance
Evaluate the value created :
- by an increase of hydrocarbon trade balance
- by a better hedging on oil price uncertainty
Socio economic impacts & taxesSocio economic impacts & taxes :
Employment & Job creation
Value chain analysis by technologies
Value Added & GDP
Impact of equipments imports on the trade
balance and fiscal revenues
MED-ImpactPage 7
WP 3 - Financial structure of RE WP 3 - Financial structure of RE projectsprojects
Impacts of financial leveragesfinancial leverages on economic and financial indicators for each RE projects
Analysis of RE project financing (debt/equity, ROE, etc.)
Define the Power Purchase Agreement (Local-PPA)
Business Plan based on :
- Income statement
- Cash flow statement
MED-ImpactPage 8
The 5 strong points of the toolThe 5 strong points of the tool
• Meets the expectations of the MED-countries
• Easy to use (Excel 2007)
• Understandable by all type of users • Database (easy to configure)• Default value• Limited number of parameters in 1st use
• Possibility of a « fine setting »
• 1 tool = « 3 models »
1
2
3
4
5
MED-ImpactPage 9
1 model = « 3 tools »1 model = « 3 tools »
• Detailed view of impacts related to a specific RE project, allowing projects’ developers to better defined their bidding documents:
Beneficiaries : Administrations, state companies & agencies in charge of RE development, investors, etc.
MED-Impact
Global overview of externalities of a national RE policy, to improve decision making process:
Beneficiaries : Administrations / Governments
1
3
• Detailed view of impacts of a national RE policy, on (i) power system, (ii) socioeconomic, or (iii) financial issues:
Beneficiaries : Ministries of energy, ministries of finances, environmental agencies, electricity utilities, etc..
2
MED-ImpactPage 10
Thank you for your attention
Visit our website : www.med-impact.com
Contact:
Charles Hullot – Project manager [email protected]@adetef.finances.gouv.fr
MED-ImpactPage 11
Back-up
MED-ImpactPage 12
Outputs – the case of EgyptOutputs – the case of Egypt
0,6
8,8
2020
6,4
2018
0,6
4,0
2016
0,6
2,0
2014
0,60,8
2012
0,60,6
2010
0,6
R
S
S Simulated scenario
R OME reference scenario – no evolution from 2010 onwards
8,2
WindPVCSPCPV
In 2020, MED-Impact quantifies the effect coming
from the introduction of
8.2 GW of additional renewable capacities
Comparison between two scenarios for EGYPT [GW, 20012-2020]:
MED-ImpactPage 13
Outputs – the case of EgyptOutputs – the case of Egypt
Impact of the integration rate on the back-up needs
For the same capacity and generated energy, the back-up needs increase with the integration rate
MED-ImpactPage 14
Outputs – the case of EgyptOutputs – the case of Egypt
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Simulated scenario 2020
OME Reference Scenario
Mtoe
Comparison of Hydrocarbon exports depending on OME Scenario (Mtoe, 2008-2020)
76
TOTALValue of the uncertainty on hydrocarbons
prices
71
5
Hydrocarbons impact on the
balance of trade
5851 7
Value in EURm
Evaluation of “hydrocarbons” externalities in 2020 (EUR/MWh)
+45%
MED-ImpactPage 15
Outputs – the case of EgyptOutputs – the case of Egypt
Additional indirect, indirect and induced local jobs [kFTE/year]1)
Additional indirect, indirect and induced local jobs created by industry in 2020 [kFTE/year]1)
Cre
atio
nS
ub
stit
uti
on
0
5
10
15
20
2020
18
2018
18
2016
17
2014
8
2012
2
2010
0
CPV
CSP
PV
W ind
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
2020
8
2018
6
2016
4
2014
2
2012
0
2010
0
Gas
Oil
Coal
Source: EmployRES, “The impact of renewable energy policy on economic growth and employment in the European Union” (2009) - European Commission, E-CUBE modelling
1) Comparison between O ME REFERENCE SCENARIO and SIMULATED SCENARIO
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 1
CSP CPV
0
PV
5
5
11
W ind
1
6
- 5
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Oil
0
Gas
8
0
CIM
O&M
Storage, preparation & fuel processing
Upstream
