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Med Supp Market Trends: Where We Are Today; Where Are Things Headed?
Jared Strock, FSA, MAAA
Consulting Actuary
CSG Actuarial
402-502-7747
• New Sales premiums in Med Supp market has doubled in the last 10 years
– $2.1 Billion sales premium in 2006
– $4.2 Billion sales premium in 2016
* CSG Actuarial Estimates based on NAIC data and other sources
• Approximately 31% more individuals in Med Supp market than 10 years ago
– 10.0 Million enrollees in 2006
– 13.1 Million in 2016
* Based on NAIC data and other sources
• Approximately 40% more carriers in Med Suppmarket than 10 years ago
– 35 separate carriers* in 2006
– 50 separate carriers* in 2016
* At the parent company level, also counting BC/BS organizations as 1
*Source: CSG Actuarial competitive database
*Source: CSG Actuarial’s Market Edge quoting data
*Source: CSG Actuarial’s Market Edge quoting data
*Screenshot from CSG Actuarial’s Market Edge tool
*Screenshot from CSG Actuarial’s Market Edge tool
*Screenshot from CSG Actuarial’s Market Edge tool
The chart is from National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 64, No. 12, December 23, 2015, page 3
United States Births
Source: census.gov – 2000 and 2010 census information
Individuals Turning 65 Each Year
Source: census.gov
Age 65+ Population
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Medicare Enrollment (1000s)
Past & Projected Medicare Enrollment
Source: 2016 Medicare Trustees Report
Past & Projected Medicare Supplement Enrollment
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Medicare Supplement Enrollment (1000s)
Source: NAIC Medicare Supplement Experience data, other sources, CSG Actuarial Projections
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Medicare Supplement AnnualizedNew Premium (1000s)
Source: NAIC Medicare Supplement Experience data, other sources, CSG Actuarial Projections
Annualized New Sales Premium
